After three losing seasons, the Blue Jays both topped the .500 mark and returned to the playoffs in 2020. Now that the corner has seemingly been turned on the team’s rebuild, could a full-fledged push towards contention be on the way?
Guaranteed Contracts
- Hyun Jin Ryu, SP: $60MM through 2023
- Randal Grichuk, OF: $29MM through 2023
- Lourdes Gurriel Jr., OF: $13.4MM through 2023
- Tanner Roark, SP: $12MM through 2021
- Shun Yamaguchi, RP: $3.175MM through 2021
- Rafael Dolis, RP: $1.5MM through 2021
Arbitration-Eligible Players
Note on arb-eligible players: this year’s arbitration projections are more volatile than ever, given the unprecedented revenue losses felt by clubs and the shortened 2020 schedule. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, who developed our arbitration projection model, used three different methods to calculate different projection numbers. You can see the full projections and an explanation of each if you click here, but for the purposes of our Outlook series, we’ll be using Matt’s 37-percent method — extrapolating what degree of raise a player’s 2020 rate of play would have earned him in a full 162-game slate and then awarding him 37 percent of that raise.
- A.J. Cole – $800K
- Teoscar Hernandez – $2.7MM
- Travis Shaw – $4.5MM
- Ross Stripling – $2.7MM
- Non-tender candidates: Shaw
Option Decisions
- Chase Anderson, SP: $9.5MM club option, $500K buyout (declined)
- Rafael Dolis, RP: $1.5MM club option (exercised)
Free Agents
- Anderson, Taijuan Walker, Ken Giles, Matt Shoemaker, Robbie Ray, Jonathan Villar, Joe Panik, Anthony Bass, Caleb Joseph, Wilmer Font
A 32-28 record under the wholly unique circumstances of the 2020 season doesn’t exactly mean that the Jays can suddenly start thinking about the World Series. That said, this year’s results were definitely a positive development, and indicative of this roster’s potential — so much of the team’s young core is either still early in their MLB careers or not even in the majors yet, but the Blue Jays have already shown that they’re able to win.
It makes for a potentially fascinating offseason in Toronto, especially considering that the Jays might be one of the few teams who could have the ability to spend. More will be known on this front once Jays management meets with the Rogers Communications ownership group for a budget meeting later this month, but on paper, the Blue Jays would seem to have some extra payroll capacity. The team has roughly $81.25MM in committed salary for 2021, and less than $37MM on the books in both 2022 and 2023, with only three players (Hyun Jin Ryu, Randal Grichuk, Lourdes Gurriel Jr.) under contract beyond the coming season.
Since the Jays came into 2020 with a pre-pandemic payroll of around $93.2MM, there is some room for GM Ross Atkins to maneuver even if ownership doesn’t okay much or any new spending. The club already carved out some extra space by declining Chase Anderson’s $9.5MM club option, and Travis Shaw’s projected arbitration salary makes him a non-tender candidate given his lack of production last season.
Is another Ryu-esque signing in the cards? Atkins didn’t rule out the possibility, telling reporters last month that “I think we are in a position where we could add to this team with talent that is condensed in one player and a super high impact.” While Toronto is far from being the proverbial “one player away” from a championship, it seems plausible that the Jays could try to duplicate their 2019-20 offseason by making one big-ticket acquisition and then a few other, more moderately-priced pickups.
Pitching is the most obvious need for a club whose rotation was in flux for much of the season. Ryu and Tanner Roark were the only real constants, though Roark struggled in his first season in Toronto and now figures to slot into the back of the rotation. Ross Stripling also didn’t pitch well as a Blue Jay after being acquired from the Dodgers at the trade deadline, though after years of being shifted in and out of the Los Angeles rotation, Stripling should get a clear-cut chance at being a full-time starting pitcher in 2021. Nate Pearson battled some elbow problems and tossed only 18 innings in his rookie season, so while his prospect ceiling is very high, he can’t yet be counted upon as a front-of-the-rotation type.
Trent Thornton, Anthony Kay, T.J. Zeuch, and other young arms are on hand to compete for a starting job or provide depth, but adding certainly one and potentially two experienced starters would go a long way towards solidifying the starting staff. Reunions with free agents Taijuan Walker, Matt Shoemaker, Anderson, and Robbie Ray will be considered, with Walker likely to receive the most attention from other teams given how well he pitched in 2020, particularly after joining the Blue Jays after the trade deadline.
Walker did speak quite highly of his time with the Jays, noting that “they did such a great job of making us comfortable in Buffalo.” This could be an underrated factor in the team’s offseason planning, as pitchers like Walker or the other Jays free agents could be prioritized since they’re already familiar with conditions at Buffalo’s Sahlen Field. A decision on whether or not the Blue Jays will be able to play in Toronto in 2021 likely won’t be known for at least a few months, so external free agents might be wary of potentially spending a year at a hitter-friendly minor league ballpark.
Then again, that might be just the kind of thing that would appeal to an unconventional free agent like Trevor Bauer. Atkins and Jays president/CEO Mark Shapiro were part of the Cleveland front office that brought Bauer to the Indians back in December 2012, and while landing Bauer would be much more costly this time around, Bauer’s stated openness to shorter-term or even one-year contracts could make him a particular fit for the Jays. Such a contract would keep Bauer in the fold during the window of Ryu’s prime and still give the Blue Jays future payroll flexibility, while also allowing more time for Pearson, Kay, or Simeon Woods Richardson to develop.
Whether the Blue Jays are prepared to make quite that big a splash in pursuing Bauer remains to be seen, though given how aggressively the team went after pitching last offseason, it can’t be ruled out. If the Jays are allowed to stretch their payroll, that gives them a leg up on virtually every other team in baseball in this post-pandemic offseason, and puts Toronto in play for conceivably any free agent. A case can be made for the Jays to pursue the likes of Bauer, J.T. Realmuto or (as MLBTR did in our Top 50 Free Agents list) DJ LeMahieu, or perhaps rather than shop in the upper tier of the market, the Blue Jays could spread their money around in the second tier. If Bauer is to command upwards of $30MM in average annual value, that $30MM+ could also cover, say, Walker and Masahiro Tanaka in the rotation and Justin Turner at third base.
Besides free agents, the Jays could also look to acquire talent in a trade, especially if rival teams are more willing to unload quality players in the name of cost-cutting. Beyond just the obvious Cleveland connection with Shapiro and Atkins, Francisco Lindor is a player that would make some sense for the Jays, particularly since they have looked into acquiring him in the past. The Indians would certainly have a high asking price for even one year of Lindor, yet considering salary concerns just led the Tribe to cut ties with a valuable player in Brad Hand, getting Lindor’s salary off the books might be a bigger concern for Cleveland than fully maximizing a trade return.
Installing Lindor at shortstop for a year also solves the third base question, assuming Shaw is non-tendered — Bo Bichette would be moved off shortstop to play either third or second base, with Cavan Biggio handling the other position. Acquiring a position player on a shorter-term deal might be the optimal move for a Jays team that has Austin Martin and Jordan Groshans in the prospect pipeline, and seems mostly set around the diamond in the present. The core of Gurriel, Grichuk, and Teoscar Hernandez in the outfield, Danny Jansen behind the plate, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Rowdy Tellez as the first base/DH duo, Bichette at shortstop and Biggio at second base (or multiple positions) is solid from an offensive standpoint, but the Jays were one of the league’s weaker defensive teams.
Inserting a premium defender like Andrelton Simmons or Kolten Wong into the one open infield spot would certainly help in this regard, though if the Blue Jays wanted to go bigger, they could explore trading Grichuk or Tellez. Such moves would allow for the acquisition of a more traditional center fielder to patrol the outfield, or free up the DH spot so the Jays could keep some of their lesser defenders in the lineup.
As they did last offseason, it seems likely that the Jays will continue to target multi-position players, in order to upgrade a bench that didn’t provide much help when injuries arose during the season. Biggio is developing nicely as a super-utilityman, but getting another reliable player who can play several positions could be another path towards helping the defense, at least in a late-game capacity.
The Jays haven’t traditionally spent much on relief pitching under Atkins, and that strategy might continue this winter even though the bullpen didn’t post good numbers in 2020. Toronto relievers were asked to throw a lot of innings in support of the shaky rotation, so things could stabilize simply with a more normal workload, plus several good young arms (i.e. Jordan Romano, Thomas Hatch, Julian Merryweather) delivered strong results.
It’s possible the Jays don’t have a traditional closer at all next season, or if they do, Romano or Rafael Dolis could get more consideration than an external pitcher. But since the Jays will presumably look to add at least one veteran reliever, they could check into pitchers with past closing experience. As the Indians’ decision to decline Hand’s option might indicate, this could be a particularly volatile market for relief pitching, leaving the Blue Jays with many opportunities to acquire a significant bullpen piece at perhaps something of a bargain price.
There is no shortage of possibilities open to the Blue Jays this winter, making a team to watch both this winter and in 2021, when the young cornerstones and (presumably) some new additions could gather to again make the Jays postseason factors.
that Dolis contract is a steal
Nice article. Your writing style is always a good read.
Springer is the perfect fit for this team in that he is still youthful yet brings a much needed veteran presence to the lineup. Rotation wise I hope they look to bring back Walker and then maybe look for trades unless you can get one of the other guys on a one year deal. There is a whole lot of risk in almost every single FA pitcher this year. They probably need to bring in one of the closers on the market as well. Romano and Dolis are the only guys you can confidently pencil into the bullpen imo.
I agree. The Jays need a real centerfielder & starting pitching far more than they need LeMahieu or Lindor. or Simmons. The Jays can win with Bichette at short, but they aren’t winning with Grichuk in center or their current rotation. They need to use their resources to upgrade those areas first. Then, add a stop gap at 3rd.
Gurriel, Grichuk and Hernandez are the OFs so unless there is a trade somewhere to open an OF spot for Springer, how exactly is he a “fit”?
One could DH & be a 4th OF, or they could trade one.
I honesty think they need to get rid of Vlad while he still has a lot of value. He’s a DH who has a terrible work ethic. That way rowdy is your 1B and Teo slides in as their primary DH. Randal can go back to RF if they don’t trade him as remember last year he was an impossible move now all of a sudden he’s a value contract? The jays need to go after Hand and another lefty as that was a big issue for the pen this year. Had the jays starters gone deeper into the games guys like Font wouldn’t have been throwing almost everyday. Hatch, Romano, Dolis, SRF and Merryweather will all be in the pen this season and all righties.
The work ethic is troubling, but players with his eye, bb and k rate are rare.
He needs to hit the ball in the air. Yelich had a similar issue and figured it out… for another team
Vlad jr will figure it out. He is still very young.
A few comments on the hitting/fielding side:
1) Adding an OF to the existing 3 not a problem. With Vlad/Telez splitting 1b and DH, you need to rest guys. If, say, Springer comes in, they simply rotate such that each of the 4 outfielder rests every 4th game or so, with all 4 starting about 3/4 of games.
2) Same logic can apply on Infield, so there’s room to add both a 2B and a 3B with strong defense and at least league average offense, provided one of them can also fill in at SS. One day 2B rests and Biggio starts there; one day 3B rests and Biggio starts there; one day one of them replaces Bichette at SS and Biggio plays the vacated spot; and one day Biggio rests.
3) That said, I don’t want Springer or LeMahieu. LeMahieu will get 4 years, and will be overpaid in the last 3 of them. Springer is the kind of guy I’d want to add, if signing him didn’t mean forefeiting a draft pick and the allocation money that comes with it (same applies to LeMahieu). This front office has done quite well in using cap allocation flexibility, and losing is a big price for me.
4) So my wish list: OF – trade for Whit Merrifield or sign Jackie Bradley Jr. (who has the added advantage of batting left, which they desperately need). Middle infield – Kolten Wong (also bats left). And a veteran backup catcher to further train Jansen in the dark arts of the position.
5) And 3B? I’m going outside the box here. I don’t want the Jays to trade for Lindor because he seems bent on testing free agency and you’ll have to pay way more in prospect capital than one year of him is worth for a team that’s not yet one player away, and that already has a solution in SS whose offensive upside is high and defensive upside yet to be determined. But if Indians are selling Lindor and waiving Hand, it’s not only about the money and COVId’s slashing of revenues; the emergence of the White Sox means the Indians are no longer automatic for a top 2 finish in that division with a high likelihood of post season revenue, which is what justified them increasing payroll in recent years. In other words, their competitive window is closing, and they need to not only save money but retool for their next window. So I take what I would have offered for Lindor, maybe add an extra good prospect, and go after Jose Ramirez, a switch hitter who can also play 2B and SS, who is a top guy defensively and offensively, who is controllable for three more years (which timeline aligns well with Austin Martin).
I’d get behind a Ramirez trade. Merrifield seems to be an untouchable to the Royals. How about Ketel Marte as a trade target? Perhaps a bulk trade with the D’backs for Marte and Escobar as bounce back candidates?
Excellent all around!
I like the idea of beefing up the offense considering the likelihood of injuries and slumps.
Ramirez would be incredible. Even Merrifield.
Following the Rays and going for pieces that fit rather than best player possible might be smarter overall? One of the rare guys they keep is Kiermaier, and they trade for Margot, Arozarena, Renfroe, all strong fielders.
Are the Cards giving up on using Bader? He’d be a great fit for what the Jays need. Or O’Neill? He’d be an ok fit. Gallo would be a good fit.
Wong would be a perfect fit.
Trying a LaStella, Marwin or Kike seems pretty appealing compared to trading prospects at this point.
If the true goal is building a consistent contender, then I don’t think trading any arms is smart. Then we’re looking at young MI or C as chips. Still not quite built up enough to be trading chips yet, in my opinion.
Smaller trade path still feels best in my mind. But a huge splash would make me forget about long term goals in a short sighted search for just 1 title.
Sometimes it’s easy to forget that building a champion is hard enough so trying to build a dynasty first may be stretching things too thin to even make that first step.
Ramirez will be significantly more expensive than Lindor because of years of control remaining and his offensive upside. He’s one of the most valuable properties in the game. Not sure what it would take to get him, but it would be more than the addition of a single good player.
Cleveland is not trading Jose Ramirez. With their outstanding controllable starting pitching, the Indians will remain a factor in the AL Central. Ramirez is controlled for three years of a team friendly deal. He is not going anywhere.
Some good names you’ve thrown around there. I mentioned Bader before as a good target, as his defence is elite and he can handle himself in the box.
I like the Ramirez idea as well, course after a top-3 MVP season, I think it would take as much to get him as it would Lindor. The years of control make it worth it though, plus Bichette gets to stay at short.
Gallo would be an amazing pick-up, and you could even try him in centre as his defense would still rate better than Grichuk.. Plus lets not forget it would add a huge lefty power bat to the lineup, which always plays nicely in the AL East.
Tellez, Grichuk, McGuire, Roark, and Reid-Foley/Thornton are expendable to improve the team. Groshans can be throw in for a big impact player (Ie Ramirez).
As I White Sox fan, I’d make almost all of the same arguments for my team re Springer as a veteran yet youthful presence that would fit in well, Walker as a starter to target, trading for another starter or looking for 1-year deals from the risky FA pool, and the need to bring in a closer.
Springer to the Sox makes all the sense in the world if Jerry wants to pay him.
yep, Spinger would be my bet.
Why exactly would Springer look to be a part of team that you admittedly say really has no rotation and only 2 guys in the bullpen….plus the tax issues with playing and being paid in Canada….he has a choice and after success with the Astros, he’ll either get paid a kings ramose to play for a team with was many holes as the Jays, or take a “good” deal with a team that consistently will compete for the title.
Wishful thinking at best!
They have one of the brightest futures in baseball… there’s not many situations that are better moving forward besides maybe CWS, Los Angeles, or San Diego.
What would the return be for a Lance Lynn + a reliever type deal be from Toronto?
Lol Rangers29 you’ve been trying to make this trade happen on every post.
At this point I sometimes jokingly say it because I say it so much, but I truly think the Jays are one of the 5 or so most likely teams to get Lynn. The Jays, Mets, Yankees, Angels, and Astros are probably the teams I’d say are the best fits for a Lynn trade. I’ve brought up Miami, San Diego, and LA, but tbh those are stretches. Sleeper team might be the Reds if they lose Bauer.
Just take a shot every time I say Lance Lynn… well… don’t do that, I don’t support alcoholism lol.
The entire NL East should be in-play for Lynn. Cardinal return possibly.
I’d say the Mets, Blue Jays, Twins, White Sox, Braves and maybe even the Giants are probably the most likely teams to go after Lynn.
If they can’t sign Springer, I would like the White Sox to trade for Lynn + Gallo, but I don’t think they have the prospect capital — at least prospects they’d be willing to give up — to make it happen.
Yeah dan, I’d say the Twins, White Sox, and Braves are right up there with the other five I listed. Those three are definatley more likely than the Astros or Angels, and heck the Braves, Mets, Blue Jays, and White Sox are probably the favorites now that I think about it.
As for your comment Oddvark, Dunning, Vaughn, and Madrigal would probably all be discussed (not all in the same package, obviously).
Lynn pretty much stunk the first time around with the Yankees……why would you think they’re a “good fit”……they have much younger pitchers who can compete and be successful as much as Lynn. Don’t be fooled by his pitching for a team that was out of it pretty much all season.
It was reported you were interested in young catching. Gabriel Moreno is due for rule 5 this year, but there are a bunch of catchers already on the 40 man in Toronto. He might be the best of them in terms of ceiling as an all around catcher. The Jays are deep in major league close or ready starting pitching but it’s not clear which if any are going to take the next leap. I like a lot of them, but if you want something that contributes short term, there are a few. More floor than ceiling for most of them though. Farther away higher ceiling is more diverse. A little of everything except OF. For one year of Lynn at $8m, you could probably ask for a lot, but I think this front office will be stingy about the topmost guys in the system. If Lynn had a couple of years, I think it would be a better fit and they’d open up the prospect bank a little more.
We don’t need catching, we have Trevino who will start for us next season, and Huff and him will share time in 22’/end of 21′ (injuries permitting… knock on wood). We need a veteran catcher to split time with Trevino this season which makes me think of Suzuki, Castro, or even Molina. We really don’t need a young catcher when Huff is the man of the future just next year.
Okay. It was just reported around some rumored trade (maybe Lynn) that the Rangers were interested in “the Jays young catchers”. It didn’t specify which one. I don’t really see the Rangers and Jays lining up on Lynn. Toronto has the system for it but I don’t know if they are shopping for a one year piece at that price.
What’s the game plan here, slow build or all in for 2021?
All in is all in for Bauer and an INF. Slow build is more low-risk pitching and a Travis Shaw return. Is it 2021 or is the plan geared for 2022?
Springer would be great, except a trade will be needed to open a spot. Grichuk is not going be a 4th OF on this team with his contract.
Personally, I think the Blue Jays should try to make a splash, because they had a pretty decent record in 2020, and it seems like they have the potential to really play well next year. I think they should try to get Bauer and a couple other top free agents, depending on how much money they have for payroll next year.
I agree Dan. Bauer, Paxton on incentives, a top INF (Didi, Wong, the 25-year old KBO guy who rakes). The Jays can go after a CF or consider Biggio for the job and acquire another INF.
Why wouldn’t Grichuk be a 4th outfielder? Depth matters and 4th outfielders can still play a lot with the DH, injuries, matchups etc. If they bring in Springer though, that’s a lot of right handed bats.
The Blue Jays are not going to put a guy with about an $11-mil cap hit on the bench. That is just not happening. Getting Springer means one of these 5 names have to be traded:
Grichuk
Gurriel
Hernandez
Tellez
Vlad
Vlad won’t be dealt even though he’d bring a great return. Tellez gives you no return. Grichuk gives you no return thanks to the contract. That leaves the other two guys whom the Jays probably want to keep the most out of the bunch. Springer is not a current fit until one is moved OR Vlad loses 30 pounds and returns to 3B. That part is not happening either.
I don’t think this team thinks about their budgets that way. They don’t think player to player on contracts in terms of roles they will play, they think about the cost for the entire roster. If they can get better with their resources they will. If Springer upgrades their defense and provides middle of the order thump, the team is better with him there. A fourth outfielder in today’s game isn’t going to idly sit on the bench. Everyone will play. Springer would bring up the ceiling by addressing outfield defense and offense as well as bring up the floor by pushing Grichuk to a role player where you can maximize his and the other 2 guys’ strengths. Tellez is far from being an established major leaguer. You don’t need to fret about him blocking Springer. I agree that Springer might be a luxury more than a need, but I don’t think you have to make everything neat and tidy first. If he’s the guy they want, there’s nothing about the roster that prevents them from taking that opportunity.
Kam, the Jays have yet to set a budget and are meeting any day now to figure that out. They admitted this a couple weeks ago. Clearly the team IS thinking about budgets, contrary to your opinion.
Nobody is fretting over Tellez blocking Springer. There are bigger positions to address over OF. Left side INF (or 2B moving Biggio to 3B) and two starting pitchers come before thinking about Springer. Besides, until Fisher is non-tendered there is no reason to think the Jays have given up on him.
Cap hit? There isn’t a cap, and the Jays would have to more than double their payroll to get within sight of the luxury tax (which would be fairly cheap to go past as a first time offender – but there’s a 0% chance of it happening this offseason).
Who said anything about a cap hit? The only cap would be self-imposed, something Rogers did during their playoff runs a few years back.
Of course they think about budgets. I’m not saying they don’t care. I am saying they look at the roster as a whole as apposed to every part from a cost perspective. Grichuk’s role will be determined by his abilities, not his salary. If he’s more valuable to the team not being on the roster, they’ll move him. But 4th outfielders probably still play more often than not and at $10m, a guy who plays in 100 to 120 games a year can certainly provide that value. To take the next competitive step, the team needs a longer lineup preferably by inserting an impact bat in the middle of the order, improved team defense, and position player depth. A Springer addition is one way to do that. Not the only way, but one move that clearly accomplishes those goals. I think it’s a lot less disruptive to this roster than adding an awesome defensive infielder that pushes the other infielders to positions where they lose defensive value.
They gave him that extension because they think highly of his abilities. He’s not going to be the 4th outfielder. They didn’t give him the CF job last year to give up on him. Especially considering his numbers improved, albeit small sample size.
Blue Jays are not getting Springer to store Grichuk on the bench. Not a chance in hell. They will trade an OF or Tellez to facilitate that. Again, INF and two SP. Forget Springer. Pipe dream.
I’m not saying I want Springer, my point is that Grichuk isn’t stored on the bench if Springer or another CF is brought in. Atkins has said “impact condensed in one player” and defense as areas to address. There’s a good case that Springer does that. The Dodgers didn’t give up on Pollock and Pederson just because they brought in Mookie. Both those guys played in a majority of games. Grichuk’s defensive numbers did not go up. They were among the worst in the league for CF (-8 DRS). Moving him back to a corner would improve his defensive numbers. His offensive numbers on the whole went up because he mashed lefties and was below league average vs. righties. Bringing in a CF and using Grichuk as a platoon that timeshares a bit with the seemingly fragile Gurriel and Hernandez who can DH some is fine. It kind of becomes a Grichuk/Tellez platoon. Having said that, I’d rather the impact player they get not be Springer, but I’d still get a decent CF with a left handed bat. Maybe see what Arizona wants for Ketel Marte. Comes with versatility as a switch hitter who can also play the infield well.
I don’t doubt there is a better way to meet their goals than signing Springer. But there is good reason why people heard Atkins’ comments and suggested Springer. Out of curiosity, what’s your preferred path to meet those goals? Which infielder and two pitchers are you prioritizing?
An INF not named 1B.
Your scenario works if the Jays agree with you. They don’t. There is no platoon. Grichuk is an everyday starter. I reiterate, and this is not confusing, Springer is acquired if they deal one of the OFs, Tellez or Vlad. They aren’t spending for Springer to leave an open hole in the INF or at SP. They aren’t making Grichuk a platoon player. They aren’t going to spend like New York or Boston.
If you want Springer, and I want Springer too, a trade will happen. No trade, no Springer.
CF could certainly be a spot to improve upon, and if we’re being honest, Grichuk did very well offensively this year: with 273 BA 12 hr 35 RBI. Would a platoon at 1B/DH with Vlad be a possiblity?
thats why tellez is on the roster I think (platoon).
Jays have Tellez, who’s the platoon 1B/DH. Teoscar in RF is scarier than Grichuk in CF. Now Jays fans are seeing the negative effects of Grichuk’s extension after denying it for a long time.
Tellez is a borderline major league player, so I’m sure they’d have no problem moving him or just moving on from him if they could add Springer to their lineup. Grichuk could move to RF and Teoscar could be the DH/4th OF for the Jays. They need to non-tender Travis Shaw no matter what they do. He’s not worth $4M+ given his last two years of production (or lack thereof).
Rowdy is a beast he’s going to be much more then a border line player imo. He’s still very young too even though he looks mid 30s
Tellez has been borderline. They could stash him in the minors if necessary.
Rowdy is only a beast when he plays against Boston. He’s been optioned to the minors numerous times in his past and there were rumors in 2019 that Toronto was getting close to letting him go. He’s a solid bench piece / PH with the ceiling of a platoon 1st baseman. If they can upgrade to a full time asset, they won’t hesitate to do so.
Rowdy was optioned in 2019 and came back hitting better.
In 2020, Bichette hurt, Teoscar stepped up. Bichette & Teoscar hurt, it was Rowdy that stepped up.
The step up injured him but he seems to have cemented his spot a lot more than the last time he was optioned.
He’s now in a wood house rather than straw.
Beast against Boston, kind of a beauty against Baltimore.
What if he could play more against Detroit, LA Angels, Cleveland, Miami, Philly? A beast of the tiniest sample sized proportions there!
Slightly above average 2020 isn’t unreasonable to imagine to see repeated for 2021. For the cost is a pretty great value.
Grichuk is an absolute animal against the Orioles. If he played them all year—he’d be a god damn MVP candidate.
Dorothy be careful….Tellez is a borderline major league player yet if you take Grichuk’s numbers against Baltimore away, he’s a borderline major league player. Heck, an argument can be made that Tellez is a better hitter than Grichuk regardless.
Point is, if you are making an argument that one player needs to go it is Grichuk and his fat contract over Tellez every single day of the week. Tellez is also a better 1B than Vlad defensively right now.
Rowdy has basically a fully season of at bats under his belt (553). ..797 OPS, 33 HR, 91 RBI. Even with limited defense, a 111 career OPS+ — 139 in 2020 — is not somebody who’s going to get a ticket to the minors.
Smuz the hate for Tellez makes no sense. Frustrating to watch him mash for a game or two and be rewarded with a benching. Tellez continues to improve and people continue to overlook him despite out-hitting some of the fan favourites.
I wouldn’t get wound up on a season that was 40%. It meant NOTHING. It was a tournament that went 2 and a half months is all it was. How many times have we had division leaders on June 1st and wind up 20 out?
Yep you nailed it. Jays would have been out of the playoffs with their one starter and a burnt out pen if 2020 was a 162 game year. The 2020 BlueJays weren’t a very good team.
If the whole Toronto/Buffalo thing is going to be a big deterrent to free agents, could the Jays turn to picking up some of those contracts that are reasonable but the smaller markets might like to shed? Carlos Carrasco maybe? They have a lot of guys due for rule 5 protection and some of them are reasonably well regarded, Taking on money in trade might make acquisition costs quite reasonable.
I don’t see the Indians trading Carlos Carrasco. He has committed to the Indians by signing two different team friendly deals. He is the heart of their locker room. They have to keep a few veterans to lead the younger players.
Fair enough. You like to see good relationships between teams and players. That’s the kind of contract I’m looking for though.
My perfect offseason would be to sign
Springer
DJ
Bauer
Walker
Hand
Trade out
Grichuk
Tellez
Roark
Trade in
Lindor
Swapping Grichuk for Springer easily makes the team better
Trade Tellez to free up the DH/1B spot
If we bring back Walker and get Bauer then Roark is the logical guy out
Opening day lineup
1. DJ 2B
2. Bichette 3B
3. Springer CF
4. Guerriel LF
5. Lindor SS
6. Vlad 1B
7. Hernandez DH
8. Biggio RF
9. Jansen/Kirk C
That 9 gives you alot of flexibility
Rotation
1. Bauer
2. Ryu
3. Walker
4. Peaeson
5. Stripling
Pen
Hatch
Kay
Mayweather
Dolis
Romano
Thorton
Hand
Having 3 starters in the pen protects against a long term injury
It’s a long shot. But that’s a team that pushes for a title
You’re adding $110M in salary?
Who cares about the money. Rogers is trying to buy Cogeco for 3 BILLION.
A long shot? More like a pipe dream! Adding all those top FAs & trading for Lindor would more than double their payroll (would add about $100M to current payroll). They said they had some money to spend, not all of it! There’s zero chance of Toronto even completing 50% of your wish list. At the most, they’d add one out of the three top guys (Bauer, DJ or Springer) and one out of Walker or Hand. No way they trade for Lindor if they add one of those top tier FAs. They probably have $30-$40M max to spend this offseason. It’s good to have dreams though!
(Sighs in wakeless sleep)
Not to mention if they wanted to trade Grichuk & Roark, they would need to retain at least 50% of their remaining salaries just to facilitate a deal. They wouldn’t get much value in return either. The Grichuk extension was a big mistake for Toronto; nice guy and a decent player but not worth that contract commitment at all.
Ya Roark was a bust and needs salary but Grich had a good season and would probably be able to get out of that deal for a lottery ticket with 0 salary retention
50%? If they could get $6m in relief on Roark, they need to do that.
@Dorothy. I’m not sure why the tone of your reply was akin to trying to explain to your 7 year old why hes so silly for thinking x y z.
I wouldn’t bet real money on 100% of those things happening, I said it was my “perfect” offseason for my favorite team.
I’m no scout (no slight on jimmer) but I’ve played at a high enough level and watched 90% of the games since I’ve been alive (I have grey hair btw) I feel I can diagnose my teams needs rather effectively as a fan. I am capable enough at reading comprehension to know what free agents are available plus frequent this lovely site enough to be familiar with certain higher profile players who may be tradable
All that said, I dont think you can argue my orginal post that as a fan, having no budget and knowing your teams holes, this is how I would plug them.
It would be the exact same conversation at the bar with random other fans after a game. Others would have different opinions. Maybe Brad wants them to go after more D and P less O and sign a Hamilton for 4th OF pinch running and Simmons at SS.
That’s cool we klink glasses, because if we respond the same way you did here. We probably get asked to go outside to talk privately. We are Canucks after all!
But we are also civil. So I raise my glass to you and reply….
“I know if i was the real GM I would be happy with 1 big fish like Springer, re-sign Walker/Ray and call it an offseason success or just DJ and a random trade for a controllable arm that we’ve liked for 2 years on X team”
But like you said, we all can dream right!
Cheers
My big curiosity is what Cleveland gets for Lindor in this trade package?
My brain, heart and gut are all having conflicting opinions around trading away prospects just yet.
Also curious if the Roark/Grichuk trades would be like the Martin/Pillar trades where the return is basically nothing?
Would be surprised if evil Rogers took the money hit on the players and also added similar or higher priced options in their place.
Would be more expecting to see them moved out in lieu of players on rookie contracts, Roark/Grichuk for Hatch/Davis haha.
Overall really like the spirit of these proposed moves!
Cleveland would want 1/2 of the Jays minor league system and maybe Pearson for Lindor. The trade ain’t happening.
Hey Turner, looks great to me. Shapiro/Atkins don’t have the stones to go for it like that though. But good thinking. It is Dave Dombrowski win now thinking.
And Stripling is on his last legs as a starter. He might be relief and one of Hatch, Borucki goes to #5.
I’m not saying they wouldn’t be great additions (they all would) but other than the Lindor trade piece, it has nothing to do with Shapiro and Atkins not having the stones to do it. They don’t have the money to do it.
Rogers has plenty of money. More than plenty.
I know Canadian money is worth less than USD, but they not only own the team, own the stadium (which they got for pennies on the dollar btw) own the cable network they are broadcast on. Own the cables in the ground. Have the largest TV/Internet/Cell phone monopoly in the country. Gouge their customers to the brink of bankruptcy lol.
The Yankees aren’t the evil empire, Rogers is the evil empire
Ontop of having more money than God and epitomizing the 1% of the 1%. The real question is will they spend it??
Had covid not happened I would lean more towards yes (again not to the extent of getting the top 5 FA with overpays and trading for every big name pending free agent) they probably would have spent considerable money
And the reason is, they understand we as fans will only line their pockets with a winning product (putting on my leafs hat I say leaf fans trick themselves into thinking we’ll win the cup every year regardless how bad our Defense is)
It was evident in the back to back world series wins, we smashed attendance records and flooded the pockets of the owners (labatt I believe)
During our most recent post season runs it was done again, minus breaking any attendance records but still very very hard to get good tickets and merchandise out the ying yang
It costs a fair penny to attend games and get official Jerseys
The Raptors sell out every game for years because they have consistently put winning products on the court
The only exception is the leafs because hockey is our religion here. They can be a last place team but they will turn a tidy profit
Plus I believe Toronto is the 4th largest city in NA and more south than a good portion of the imaginary line that divides our counties
The case can be made however that even during covid. If they cant profit from butts in the seats, Eyeballs on the screen probably generates more income for them anyway especially given their bread and butter is TV/internet and streaming on phones or tablets
Putting out a winning product garuntees them profits hand over fist
It’s the reason why Jay’s fans hate that Rogers wont outspend the Yankees year after year. We know they can. We aren’t stupid. They just dont take the risk.
Turner, we can sum it up like this:
Rogers is arguably the richest owners in baseball, period.
Dorothy Mantooth has no idea what he/she is talking about judging by the comments throughout this thread. Rogers, if they choose to spend, has plenty of cash. Remains to be seen what they will put forward with the budget since they did take a big hit with hockey, basketball and the Buffalo stadium alterations.
Dorothy, I agree that they can’t get that money because the Rogers CEO won’t allow it. That kind of spending would affect his sizeable profit sharing. And yet they offer 3 billion for Cogeco.
I think they should bring back Robbie Ray, and add Semien to play third, both on 1 year deals. If they can both bounce back, Jays can either flip them at the deadline or tender them Q.O’s. Maybe bring in a veteran starter on a 1 year deal as well like Kluber, Paxton or Minor to eat some innings. Hopefully, bring in a new closer like Hand, Yates or May for a year or two. I’m pretty intrigued by this Ha-Seong Kim guy also. JBJ would be a nice fit maybe too, he’s a lefty with excellent defense, which are both things Toronto needs in the outfield.
Hahaha… put down the game controller. *facepalm*
I mean, you can dream. 🙂
You’re basically adding in the three top free agents, along with the top lefty reliever, and trading for the top SS. No team in history has ever had an offseason like that, so, yeah it won’t be happening!
…minus Realmuto, of course.
Here’s the thing, when you add this many guys to your 40-man roster, you typically lose young controllable (unproven) talent. In years past, we’ve lost Sam Dyson, Jeremy Jeffress to waivers and we did lose Jordan Romano (Rule5) as well, luckily he was returned to us.
The problem with your lineup is at least one of those in your lineiup, would not be there if the Jays acquire Lindor. Cleveland will not trade Lindor for all prospects. Gurriel or Hernandez would likely be part of the return back to the Indians.
Hockey, for 1 year of Lindor, there is no way Cleveland gets talent like Gurriel Jr or a bat like Hernandez from anyone. It ain;t happening.
Yea, I like our corner outfield sluggers Gurriel and Hernandez, defense isn’t pretty but they can mash.
Give Bauer 5/150 and let him train as he likes. It’s worth putting up with his quirks
That said, Rogers probably doesn’t want someone who’s a PR risk so I’m not holding my breath
Trade for Joe Musgrove. You came close to last deadline, go for it now.
I’d be interested in Musgrove. He seems really cheap though so he’ll cost us a fair bit in prospect capital. It might be a plan B to just paying money to a free agent like Walker. Is he really a 12 k/9 guy now or is that just small sample size?
Why does everyone want musgrove. If I’m going after one of the pirates pitchers it’s Williams way more potential
Musgrove has been way more consistent over the course of his career than Williams. Williams had one excellent season in 2018 with the rest being well below average. The real prize of the Pitt staff is Jameson Taillon but I doubt the Pirates would agree to move him. If they do, it will cost some serious prospect capital to pry him away.
Williams has really struggled the last two seasons and even his 2018 season was a fluke. He doesn’t really have any competitive pitches. At best, he’s a #4-#5 starter. I would even consider him a non-tender candidate.
A few comments on the pitching side:
1) I don’t want Bauer anywhere near my team. This is a guy who wants to pitch every fourth day, which will require every other starter on the team he signs for to change their routine and have starts skipped/pushed to accommodate Bauer’s whims. In other words, he’s a guy who puts himself ahead of the team, and I don’t want that in my team.
2) Pundits with good contacts within the team have been increasingly talking about Pearson starting the season in triple A, and I’m totally good with that. Let him get used to a starter’s workload again and to figure out his most effective pitch sequences there, and bring him up later in the season when an injury happens. No need to go through those growing pains while trying to get the Stantons and Arozarenas of the worls out.
3) Stripling hasn’t shown enough to be given rotation shot; he’s my longman and first rotation replacement should an injury happen.
4) Thornton’s injuries are worrying. Ideally, I’d rather him start in Buffalo next year and build up pitching strength again.
5) So that means 3 spots to fill between the no. 1 Ryu and the no. 5 Roarke. I’m fine bringing back Walker and Ray – provided they are my nos 3-4, not if they are my nos 2-3. And I think that if both guys’ market tanks towards their MLBTR projections (2 yr, 8M AAV for Walker, 1 yr 6M for Roy), the Jays would be willing and able to top that.
6) So who’s my no. 2? Gausman would fit, but signing him means giving up a high draft pick and I don’t want to do that. Is Odorizzi? MLBTR project him to the Blue Jays at 3 years, 13M per. That’s no. 2 money in this market but is Odorizzi that good? Real question, I haven’t seen him enough to tell. But I at least explore the trade route for a true no. 2 with 1-2 years of control left. Aligns with the timeline of a team whose AAA rotation next year would be Thornton, Pearson, Kay, Hatch, Merryweather, and Zeuch (they ran a 6-man rotation in 2019 to better manage seasonal pitch count limits), all of whom could conceivably be ready to challenge for a rotation spot in 2022.
7) Speaking of Hatch and Merryweather, Atkins in a radio interview a few weeks ago explicitly said Hatch and Merryweather are going back to being rotation prospects. So there. they’re out of the bullpen conversation for now. However, based on the same interview, Borucki likely stays in the bullpen, and obviously Romano will. Dolis, Cole, Stripling, Yamamoto are obviously there as well. Perez, Murphy and Reid-Foley were mentioned by Atkins as bull pen arms in Buffalo.
That’s an interesting comment on Merryweather. He has a full 4 pitch arsenal and he looks to have feel for it for a guy who has pitched so little. He’s out of options, so he’s not a AAA starter next year. So it seems to suggest Atkins is pointing at starting him in the major league rotation as that’s the only place he can be a starter. How are they going to manage workload though?
Opener.
Starting out as one time through the lineup, if he’s on or off it’s not likely to exceed 50 pitches.
If he can excel then stretch him out for that 2nd time through the order.
He wouldn’t see the 6th inning unless he was dealing. Which is pretty standard for 99% of pitchers currently.
Need to determine if they’re gonna play a full 162 game season too, if it’s another short season he might be able to make it
As far as workload, literally every starter in MLB is coming off a season where they threw no more than a third of their usual innings. They can’t all be babied along as openers next year because of theories about how much their innings should be allowed to increase in a single year.
Excellent Reuven!
1) Agreed.
There is an SI feature from 2019 on Bauer that makes me appreciate him but he doesn’t strike me as a team guy.
2) I think Pearson would need to be lighting up spring as a starter or the team would need a huge string of bad luck to push him early.
3) Stripling can slot in for doubleheaders and whenever somebody feels like Ryu needs an extra day. Perfect as a flex guy. Hopeful that additions can be made to push him back but even internal options may be worth a first look.
4) Thornton will need plenty of time to prove himself again. I find it hard to count him out. Might need to become a reliever ultimately? Borucki injury was similar? Might be a similar path, return late in summer as a reliever for Thornton perhaps.
5/6) I’m fine with Walker and Ray but more fine with some of the other alternatives available. There was a comment about needing to improve the walks which makes me think Ray won’t be returning. Walker less wild and more appealing. Veteran with strong control like Tanaka, Porcello, Fiers, Happ may be more in line with what we should be expecting. Want vs expectation?
Relief like Tomlin, Petit, Watson jump out when I consider the desire to limit the BB. Rather see high upside/high risk myself.
7) Good! Touched on Merryweather before this.
Hatch: yes four a rotation try.
Merryweather: he is an elite setup guy not a starter.
Great write-up.
Realistic to think we could have 30-50mil to spend. I wouldn’t mind if it’s all spent on pitchers. I wouldn’t mind bringing back Walker, ray, and sign 1 other to complete the rotation and a great lefty arm for the pen. And trade roark even if you gotta pay most his salary to move him.
As for the offense/defense, it’s pretty good as is, and is young so they should improve. Hopefully whoever they get can upgrade the defense & be a lefty/switch hitter to add versatility
Sign Didi to play 3b,sign odorizzi and Bauer, trade teo+ for Lindor, sign Lindor to an extension, have Bo at 2b and biggio as main RF but also super utility.
Here’s something to chew on: Vladimir for Urias; sign Brantley; sign Walker or Shoemaker, or Bauer for a year or two if that’s where he’s at (giving development time for the hurlers on the farm); pick up an infield glove (Wong or the like); add to the bullpen from the many arms available at a reasonable price; keep the prospects already in house. Bon appetit.
Here’s something to chew on: Vladimir for Julio Urias; sign Brantley; sign Walker or Shoemaker, or Bauer for a year or two if that’s where he’s at (giving development time for the hurlers on the farm); pick up an infield glove (Wong or the like); add to the bullpen from the many arms available at a reasonable price; keep the prospects already in house. Bon appetit.
Julio Urias, that is.