MARCH 31: The Astros haven’t budged off their six-year, $120MM offer, Heyman hears (Twitter link). With no movement from the team in recent days and Correa unwilling to negotiate in-season, it seems he’ll hit free agency at the end of the year.
MARCH 30: There remains a chance that the Astros will sign Correa to an extension by the start of the season, as general manager James Click told McTaggart and other reporters, “We had some more conversations over the weekend so we’re going to keep at it.”
MARCH 25: Correa isn’t impressed by the Astros’ offer. Speaking to reporters (including Brian McTaggart of MLB.com and Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle), he called the proposal “really low” and said he’s preparing as if he will become a free agent next offseason. Correa added that he will “absolutely not” push back his April 1 deadline for extension negotiations.
MARCH 24: The Astros took care of an important piece of business Wednesday when they agreed to a five-year, $85MM contract extension with right-hander Lance McCullers Jr. He’s no longer scheduled to reach the open market next winter as a result, but shortstop Carlos Correa is one of the key Astros still on track to become a free agent then. Unfortunately for Houston, it doesn’t appear close to a new contract with Correa. The Astros offered him a six-year extension worth approximately $120MM, but “there’s no sign of traction,” Jon Heyman of MLB Network tweets.
If Correa agreed to that amount, it would have matched the extension fellow shortstop Xander Bogaerts signed with the Red Sox going into the 2019 season. But the deal has always looked like a team-friendly amount for Bogaerts, who was then entering his age-27 season and coming off a monster year.
There is an argument that Correa should take a large offer now, as he has battled durability issues over the past few seasons and is coming off a year in which he hit an uncharacteristically mediocre .264/.326/.383 with five home runs in 221 plate appearances. On the other hand, the former No. 1 overall pick went into last season a .277/.356/.489 hitter with 102 HRs over 2,362 trips to the plate, and he won’t turn 27 until September. Therefore, it would be understandable for Correa to bet on a rebound this year and vie for a much more lucrative contract as part of a loaded free-agent class. Along with Correa, Francisco Lindor, Corey Seager, Trevor Story, Javier Baez and Marcus Semien are among shortstops who are in line to become free agents after this season.
Dude waiting for Lindor to sign.. and he’s lucky to get $20mill yr in this offer
If he has a productive healthy year he could be better than Lindor he would be selling himself low to sign after a bad year
He’s better than Lindor? Sure…
It’s pretty close. Correa the better hitter, Lindor the better fielder. Same playing time, more or less, Lindor about 2 more career WAR. Both great players but Lindor isn’t as supremely great as many think.
Exactly. IF Correa can stay healthy he is possibly the best SS in the league. Definitely for his age. I’m hoping the next 6 years he can. He hasn’t been able to do it so far. This off season will really show us how much teams value availability trends.
I never said he’s better than Lindor. But a full season of his 2017 would easily top Lindor’s best season.
You do realize his 2017 was so good because he cheated the whole season?
Correa career OPS = .833
Lindor career OPS = .833
It’s interesting how much of a difference there is between BREF and Fangraphs on Correa’s career WAR.
BREF – 26.2
FG – 19.4
Correa isn’t in the same league as Linder!
Also Correa has had more then 500 at bats once in his career, no thanks
Lindor leads him in almost every offensive category, has 3x as many steals (99 to 33) and is better in the field.
Steals? Really? Who cares? Stolen bases aren’t very valuable.
What? Lindor is by far the better hitter AND the better defender. Correa keeps hanging onto being the #1 pick despite never living up to it.
There is no comparison. Lindor is on another planet than Correa.
A Nationals fan.
So what if he has 3x as many steals. Lindor is probably going to get 10 years/$300M. 3x as many steals is not worth the difference of 4 years/ $180M.
Plus, it’s untrue that Lindor leads in most offensive categories. Correa has a 127 wRC+ to Lindor’s 118. Correa has slightly more power. He has a .204 ISO to Lindor’s .202. Lindor’s WAR is better, but the difference is due to Lindor’s better defense.
Lindor is the slightly better player overall IMO, but they are not miles apart as some are implying.
You are way overrating Lindor. Great player, but not discernibly better than Correa. You sound like every Mets fan but me right now.
You’re right, better hitter and fielder. Silly me for putting SBs up there to also say he’s better on the base paths too.
How many plus 30hrs?
Home many over 110 games seasons?
How many GG?
How many Allstars games?
How many GG?
How many over 110 games seasons?
Home many over 30 hrs?
How many Allstars games?
Home many hits to the wastebasket?
Technically he had a better season in 2016.
I remember watching my first game, are you planning to watch yours in 2021. Advancing a base is extremely valuable. Runners moving into scoring position creates opportunities to win games. Simple, basic baseball bro.
What terrible criteria to judge a player.
There’s more to power than HRs, and Correa has a higher ISO, .204 t0 .202.
Gold Gloves? Everyone that has followed baseball for more than a few seasons knows GGs are not any indication as to who’s the best fielder.
You do have a valid criticism with games played, but I noticed the, not so arbitrary, cutoff is at 110 games, when Correa played 109 in 2017.
But your worst criterium has to ASGs. With Chicago voters voting for Baez, and LA voters voting for Seager, etc., etc., ad nauseum, it’s clear AS appearances mean little. In fact, BB Ref has 44 categories for batting leaders, and AS game appearances isn’t one of them.
Better hitter? Well, let’s let Lindor know which pitches are coming and see how well he does; then we’ll talk. Until then, Lindor is so much better, it’s not even close.
That’s a red herring. If the sign stealing made that big a difference, his home/road splits would be more extreme, since they could only do that at home. His splits are:
Home: .279/.361/.480 .841 OPS
Away: .273/.347/.480 .827 OPS
Almost all players hit better at home, and especially for him since Minute Maid Park is hitter-friendly.
Even in 2017, the supposed height of the scandal doesn’t have an extreme variation:
Home: .333/.406/.581 .986 OPS
Away: .301/.379/.525 .905 OPS
Look at 2019, the last full season, after the scandal had been revealed:
Home: .323/.404/.630 1.034 OPS
Away: .242/.320/.516 .836 OPS
That a bigger variance than when he supposedly knew what pitch was coming.
Well, not anymore. Lindor’s in the Senior Circuit now
Steals might not be valuable, in your eyes, but being able to go the extra base is. As an outsider I’d probably go Lindor over Correa, if I wanted to go flash. If I was going to build around the guy I’d go Correa over Lindor. It depends on the narrative of the situation. Imo, they’re very comparable.
Why u sneezing at Xander’s production he’s been a solid stud for Boston and I wouldn’t label too far behind correa. Also Xander’s defense has come a long way
Rhino: there is the eye test and there is a better way to judge reality. You are judging by the eye test. Wake me up when the 1970s end in your world. Taking an extra base is valuable when it happens but I suggest you research the data: stolen bases are not only not as valuable as you think but the statistic of SBs is USELESS without also incorporating caught stealing. If you go beyond the simple and basic you see this.
Prospect: it’s not my eyes that say SBs are not that valuable, it’s math. Plus, the stat is useless without context. Steal 30 bases while getting caught 15 times and you’ve actually hurt your team.
How is that a red herring? His best year he was a proven cheater and he can’t stay on the field. Lindor has been THE #1 SS in the game for multiple seasons in a row. Correa isn’t in the same tier. So, because he only cheated at home, in your opinion, that is what makes his candidacy for best SS along with Lindor more viable?
You think it’s only my opinion that he only cheated at home? Please tell me how the Astros could have stolen signs at an away park. You think a team is going to allow a guy from the visiting team into the CF camera pit with binoculars and a connection to the dugout?
You can claim Lindor is the #1 SS all you want. Until you can prove that with numbers you have zero credibility. I do prefer Lindor over Correa, but only slightly. But to insist that Correa is not a top 5 SS is absurd. The numbers say he is.
Oh! Your are right. Correa is a cheater too. Keep him.
Tad, you completely sidestepped my points to pivot the conversation to Correa cheating at home or abroad. Fine, I’ll stipulate on the record he only cheated at home… now, go! Take away half his hitting for those years and do the math again, let’s see it – can’t wait (chews popcorn…)
Lindor has still been widely recognized as the clear number one SS in the league by, well, everyone, except you. I think the onus is on you to prove he’s not. When the champ is the champ, you have to actually defeat him to take his title, you just can’t say “he would win.” Lindor is the reigning champ, bro. Correa is only getting older, slower, and his numbers will continue to drop in every area at SS. He won’t be #1,2, or 3 there, ever. He won’t even be the top tier.
Correa is still pretty young…
Cosmo, if you are a fellow Mets fan, who do you want?? im curious to see who u think will put the Mets over the top…..please dont tell me you are a BVW fan lol
LordAlphaClass: Stats only matter when they favor Correa, sir!
Heh not a BVW fan, no way! I want cost controlled young players. Basically, I want early days Doc and Straw!
We had some cost controlled players and then BVW traded them!! Kelenic, Kay, SWR, Justin Dunn, etc….i love what Lindor brings to the table, switch hitter, power, defense, clubhouse leader, infectious energy…..it will get done before opening day!! you are the only Mets fan i know that doesnt like Frankie
This mindset is one of the problems with today’s game. I miss steals. Steals are exciting. Steals and bunts both need to re-emerge.
Fever Pitch Guy
Hafta laugh at those who are leaving Xander out of the “best in the league” discussion. Past three seasons is the best indicator and nobody comes close to X’s production since 2018. He’s not an elite defender, but he’s so vastly superior as a hitter to Lindor and Correa that it more than makes up for the defensive gap. Dombrowski’s shining moment was X’s contract.
Fever Pitch Guy: taking only last three seasons, yeah, you’ve gotta put him up there. He’s raked at the plate, no doubt. Dude’s put up some great offense….
This mets fan takes Coreea at $240m to the 330+ Lindor wants.
Lindor dosent sniff 300m if he hits FA and most of thos class makes it there
Duh, Lindor got traded to the NL
Lindor also leads in the isn’t a cheater category.
“What? Lindor is by far the better hitter AND the better defender. Correa keeps hanging onto being the #1 pick despite never living up to it.
There is no comparison. Lindor is on another planet than Correa.
A Nationals fan.”
That’s a pretty huge stretch to say he hasn’t lived up to his draft status. Correa isn’t Brien Taylor for God’s sake. The only other player taken in that draft on the same planet as Correa talent-wise is Corey Seager.
Lindor and Correa are very much comparable players. Maybe put aside the bias for once? It makes you look foolish.
I like Lindor, I just think that, as evidenced by some of the posts here, he’s being overrated. I also don’t think he’s worth the mega contract he’s seeking. Huge financial commitments like that, in my opinion, hurt a team more than the player helps.
Correct. One is the NL and the other the AL.
Wasn’t the scandal revealed after the 2019 season? By then they were using buzzers
He’s just a part-time productive player.
If I was rich, if You were Bill Gates, if we all were mlb team owners and billionaires… If… If… What if… Blablabla.
I personally love small ball, but statistically very few stolen bases get converted to additional runs, that’s why not many players or teams bother stealing very often. And if u wanna be technical, a steal is just as dangerous as it is valuable. Yes it may create a run, advance runner, throws of pitcher/catcher. But it could just as easily lead to getting thrown out
@higgy5220 is right. Carlos Beltran’s fake cousin already blew the lid off the buzzers when she revealed the fake conversation she had with him, wherein he told her about the buzzers.
Dude. Really? Steals are exciting. I hope you’re in the minority with that thinking
Technically true. One is in NL, other is in AL.
He could be better than Lindor?
In his wettest dreams is he anywhere near Lindor’s level.
He’s just a part-time productive player.
Who has delivered in the playoffs, cheating or not. The only teams who wouldn’t want Correa are those who already have a top 5 shortstop and there’s only 4 shortstops better than Correa in the game today which means only 4 teams wouldn’t want him.
There are more than 4 teams that either don’t want to spend $30MM on a SS, or can’t afford a $30MM SS. I would say there may be a half dozen teams that can afford it, and may be willing to. LAD, NYY, NYM, TOR, HOU, …hmmm… Mystery Team.
I said “want”, not “overpay”.
If this report is true, it might not be the worst idea to sign it. He’d have the chance to get more on the open market, but he’d be taking a risk doing that. I wouldn’t be surprised with the shear number of star SS’s being available, at least one of Correa, Baez, Lindor, Story, and Seager get squeezed out of some of the money they deserve.
I seriously doubt Correa is tempted to sign for that. He’ll clearly do better than that on the open market. I also doubt any of those players get squeezed financially.
SS is such a premium position, that all those guys would be an upgrade over most incumbents. Most teams would be willing to move guys around the diamond, or to other teams, if they could land one of them. For instance, the Giants are seeing an end to Crawford’s contract, They have Luciano, but he may not be ready in 2022. They could sign one of these guys, then move Luciano to 3B when Longoria’s contract is up after 2022.
Seager will be a FA, but the Dodgers will spend whatever it takes to keep him in LA. And if the Mets can’t extend Lindor, they’ll be bidding on his free-agency, or that of Correa, Baez or Story should they fail.
It’s just that there is 5 star caliber free agent SS’s that are available. Is their going to be five SS needy teams that can afford to give them what they’re worth? If they all reach the open market, I wouldn’t be surprised when the musical chairs come to an end and at least one is left without a match. That might lead them to have to sign a 1 or 2 year deal at a high AAV and miss out on their big payday.
jdgoat – great points.
I am with jdgoat on this one, regardless of the talent, based on the recent history of FAs.
Well, I think the actual number to wonder about is 3, not 5. Whether Lindor is extended or not The Mets will certainly be in on one of the 5. LA will also be looking to re-sign Seager, and if they surprisingly do not, they’ll be in on one of the others.
So I think the question is are there 3 other SS needy teams that can afford to give them what they’re worth. But, maybe you’re right. Maybe there’s isn’t a 3rd team beyond the Phillies, and Giants that have the money for what would be a clear upgrade with some shuffling around.
Tad2b13 don’t forget the angels. Iglesias is a one year stop gap and Pujols contract is up so they’ll have plenty of money. The angels always prove they need pitching but instead pay for offense.
If COL does not sign Story, will they be willing to spend big on a different player, or retool? Would one of the others be willing to sign with COL? Same with Houston and Correa? Detroit could afford one, but will they choose to do so? PHI and CHC, and BOS are all up against the cap, currently. Will that change with the new agreement? Lots of unknowns. I would definitely be listening to the extension offers.
Gonna be waiting until December then
Rather have Bogaerts for $120mm
Correa’s not a bad consultation prize though at that bargain price
Rather have Iglesias for $2MM, and have the additional money for another position!
Correa should jump all over that because he’ll be too far down on the depth chart of available shortstops next winter to do much better.
I know he has had his health issues but even I think 6 @ $120 is a little light. I think $25 per is a better number and to me the 5 @ $150 that Springer got or 6 @ $175 seems better. I know some will say he should get more than Springer because he is younger but the flip side of that is he’s been less reliable from a health standpoint. We will see what Houston counters with when he declines this offer but it looks like he’s going to be testing the waters.
No way he’s worth more, and I’m an Astros fan. He’s continuously hurt and honestly has only posted one excellent season to date. Guess what year that was…
Springer absolutely deserved a larger contract as he’s more valuable and has steadily produced. Correa has not, nor has he stayed healthy.
And why would Houston counter its own offer? Let Correa come up with a counter. It’s a more than fair offer for him.
There is no comparison between both talking about Production and achievement so far. MVP? Rbi, runs scores, games played per year. Just expect more injuries and poor productivity with Correa, as he gets older. Correa has a weak body, like a glass window.
Astros going to be fine with Jeremy Pena or 5 other free agents hitting the market in 2021. Carlos better jump on it if he’s truly wanting to stay.
To me, it was always a no-brainer though he’d leave where Beltran landed. The plan was probably the Mets at one time…
tbh i can still see carlos playing for the nym, lindor might be too rich for nym and giving that next years ss class is top notch i can see the mets “setting” for guys 2~6. now i can be completely wrong on this but lindor turned down 2 300m extensions. i can see the mets giving 1 more deal to lindor and if he turns it down and pivot to the other 5 guys and depending on the deal recycle the lindor money in other areas that the mets need to improve on after this season.
It’s probably a little low but honestly this offer reflects about what he’s produced. Go maybe up to 6/150 or 7/170 but I think peña can give 2/3 the production for maybe a quarter of the price.
That seems a bit more fair. I’d personally do 6/140. Lock him up for all his prime years and get out of the contract before he leaves the SS position due to age/mobility.
He turned that down? He’s not that great and he’s also hurt all the time. Does he really think someone else will offer him more? He’d have to find a really stupid GM for that to happen.
No, he hasn’t turned it down—just hasn’t responded yet. I’m betting he and his agent are discussing the years and dollars as well as the crop of elite SS in next year’s FA class. He will likely miss out on some money if he goes FA and if he gets hurt again this year, he won’t sniff 20 million.
I doubt he signs it. He’s always kind of thought he’s better than he is and he gets the benefit of the doubt because he’s young and looks the part of a great player when he’s not a great player. He’s a good player who wants great money. He’s gambling on himself to stay healthy and get a better offer but he’s going to be competing against Story, Seager, Baez, and maaaybe Lindor, though I don’t think the Mets traded for him to not extend him.
Sure they traded for him to not extend him. If extending him was a must they would have gotten an extension as part of the trade.
Often injured, associated with cheating, and he gets a very good offer during a pandemic. Surprised he held out.
bbref link goes to Lance McCullers Sr. instead of Jr.
Senior will be pleased he just got an $85M contract after being retired all these years and at his age.
Hes accumulated 26.2 br-war thru his age 25 season. His ops+ of 126 is elite. Hes a terrific ss in his prime. 6-120 is a lowball offer. He does have an injury history but hes a franchise player
He has 0 top 15 mvp finishes and one all star game. Not elite.
All star games and MVP votes are a very dumb way to evaluate talent. Those voters are often wrong. Why not look at actual stats instead of somewhat arbitrarily handed out awards?
hOw ManY GoLd gLoVeS dOeS hE hAvE??
steve has a point off. production is great from a ss but ss are there for the d just like a c anything they do with there bat is a bonus, now if carlos can play gg caliber d then my argument is null and void. (since hou left the nlc i don’t really watch them so i can’t speak on his d on ss)
His defense is outstanding. He should of won the gg last season but the voters obviously view the astros negatively. He led the al in drs and only had one error.
Sigh…okay. He’s a career .270 hitter with a .353 OBP 107 homers and 397 rbi in essentially five full seasons, averaging 21 hrs and 80 rbi a year. WAR 4.8, 7.0, 6.6…okay, then 2.7, 3.5 and the 1.6 which would’ve been around 4 had we played a full year. Overall WAR 26.2, averaging a WAR around 5 a year. Good numbers. Good numbers deserve a good contract. But if he turns down…say…6/150, could Peña give you half the production for a tenth of the price. I think he could. Astros think it too which is why the offer he was given was a reasonable one, not a we gotta have you back one.
I love Astros’ fans way of justifying everything Astros do. Correa is lucky if he’s top 5 SS in MLB, and by almost all objective measures, he isn’t. Saying, “If he wasn’t injured….” is counterintuitive to any factual discussion because anyone can say that about any player on his team to justify why said player should be ranked higher, or have better numbers. It can be taken to any extreme. For example, Judge should be the home run champ, because if he wasn’t injured he would’ve hit 71 home runs. Prove me wrong.
This made me laugh
Well you are totally wrong that he isn’t a top 5 SS. Proof? Fine:
Seager – 129 OPS+ / 130 wRC+ / -5 DRS
Correa – 127 OPS+ / 127 wRC+ / 47 DRS
Lindor – 117 OPS+ / 118 wRC+ / 38 DRS
Story – 114 OPS+ / 114 wRC+ / 60 DRS
Bogaerts – 113 OPS+ / 114 wRC+ / -50 DRS
Among this group, Correa is 2nd best hitter, and 2nd best fielder.
Seager is the best hitter and 4th best fielder.
Lindor is the 3rd best hitter and 3rd best fielder.
Story is the 4th best hitter, and the best fielder.
And Bogaerts is the 5th best hitter, and by far the worst fielder.
Among all SS, Correa ranks 3rd offensively and 5th defensively.
Seager ranks 2nd offensively and 36th defensively.
Lindor ranks 6th offensively and 7th defensively.
Story ranks 7th offensively and 3rd defensively.
And Bogaerts ranks 8th offensively, and 58th defensively.
The only other SS in the top 5 for hitting were Tatis (1st), Gleyner Torres (4th), and Trea Turner (5th), and defensively Simmons (1st), Ahmed (2nd) and Brandon Crawford (4th), Of course none of them except Crawford are FAs next season, and Crawford isn’t in the same ballpark for hitting as the others.
Okay, so it appears you’ve taken a cumulative of all their career numbers to determine a career top5 SS to this point. So now that we have defined the “top 5” discussion in your terms, I’ll play.
Which years of hitting would you like to take out for cheating and recalculate? Bet he ends up pretty much lower……. Defense, you used one metric. I’ll use mine – the newer, more comprehensive, Outs Above Average – he ranks # 12!
So even with cherry picked stats, it still only works when taking a cumulative of very specific fields which is why he is not ever in the same tier as Lindor, and on most lists, lucky if he’s listed in the top 5 (tier 2). Tad, I respect your opinion, your a bright individual but we will disagree on this point. So, let’s use a third evaluator.
For reference here’s the objective MLB rankings, where he’s #9
Correction, actually, he was 12 in 2020, he’s actually……….. 16th defensively in Outs Above Average cumulatively. My apologies for posting an erroneous higher ranking in hast.
I admit you make some good points, but I have a problem with the MLB top 10 list. For instance Semien at #4? That was obviously based on a huge 2019 season when he had a 140 OPS+. But that was his only season to have an OPS+ over 100. He was averaging a 96 OPS+ up to 2019. And he is not good with the glove.
Story is a great SS, but his #1 ranking appears to be based on BA, RBI and HRs. He plays at Coors. His OPS+ at 118, is the better stat, and he falls behind others there. And actually BB Ref has it at 114 for his career.
Bogaerts at 5 is ridiculous. He’s not good with the glove. Someone posted that he has improved. He has, but from very bad to just bad. He has negative numbers in both DRS and your preferred OAA.
I have no problem with Lindor, and Tatis ranked above Correa. I do with Semien, and Bogaerts. And I think it’s debatable how Correa compares to Story and Baez. more so with Story, as I prefer Correa easily over Baez.
But to the rankings in OAA, would you really prefer some of the better defensive SSs over Correa, like Mondesi, J.P. or Brandon Crawford., Segura, or Hoerner? And Lindor who has a 7 OAA, to Correa who has a 3, doesn’t say to me that Lindor is on an entirely different level.
You want to omit Correa’s 2017 even though he had a .905 OPS playing away? Fine. He had a 129 OPS+ in the 2 years prior. It’s been 110 in the 3 years after. Not able to find the overall, but that still puts him near Lindor and his 117, and injuries have had an impact
I think Dodger and Yankee fans understandably bear some hard feelings about the Astros and their WS title, but I think it’s influencing their objectivity when it comes to Astro players.
@Yankee Clipper No I totally believe that he could be a top 5 guy in the league at short but the most important ability is availability. I don’t believe in the 10/300 deals with very few exceptions. Trout, Acuna, Bellinger maybe. Young non pitchers who will be like 36 when the deal is done. Plus you need to be elite and Correa simply is not elite, this is an Astros fan saying this. He’s a good player who wants great money. Someone will give it to him but I hope its not the Astros, he’s simply not worth more than about 7/170 and that’s pushing it.
Tad: Do you notice how you literally dig through every other SS’s career with a fine tooth comb to find the best year, the stadium, the “advantage” that places him above, and attack it; all while conveniently ignoring/justifying some major Correa issues?
Honestly, dude, you bring a lot of value to these discussions, and I appreciate your perspective. But, to your question, please understand, I don’t ONLY value OOA, but if we are using only one metric, especially SS, OOA is valuable due to the mobility measures. I prefer multiple…. And, no, I wouldn’t rather have those you listed, because it isn’t only about the defense (OOA). But I would rather have the other FA’s next offseason, for a variety of reasons.
Also, I openly admit, I was not a believer in Lindor as the top SS at first. And, I researched him compared with other SS and watched him play. He’s simply…..better. Trust me, as a Yankee fan it brings me no joy to laud the abilities of the Mets fans’ new ceiling-poster boy.
Story is currently his only competition, and if Seager keeps performing, with his youth and if he can stay healthy, will scale the boards quickly.
I get the feeling you haven’t been reading, or completely comprehending, my posts. You seem to think that I think Correa is better than Lindor. I never said that, nor do I believe it. I have stated in multiple posts that I prefer Lindor to Correa.
My point though, is given the importance of the SS position defensively, that there are only a few guys that play the position well, and also hit well. The handful of guys that do both are Tatis, Lindor, Story, Baez, and Correa.
I love Seager’s bat, and Bogaerts has been very good with the bat, but neither is very good with the glove.
I might remind remind you that this discussion is about the Astros offer to Correa, which is why I’ve limited the discussion to the soon to be FA SSs, so I didn’t include Tatis. I rank them:
Why? While Correa’s hitting numbers are somewhat better than Lindor’s, Lindor is the significantly better fielder. But Correa also has better hitting numbers than Story and Baez, as well and is the better defender. You wouldn’t get much of an argument from me if Correa and Story were flipped given their respective health. But with his upside I think Correa is worth the gamble.
Again, I think Lindor is better than Correa, but my issue is with the idea that Correa is not anywhere near Lindor, and that everything he’s accomplished was from cheating. That seems absurd to me based on the numbers. I am neither a Yankee, Dodger, nor Astros fan. I have no dog in this fight. I just see Correa easily as a top 5 performer at SS, even if Lindor is better. Just not 4 years and $180M better.
He’s going to get a lot more years due to his young age.
Misleading metrics and statistics for a part-time player, Showrrea.
I’m almost looking forward to the offseason as much as the regular season. I have to wonder how much more Correa could make on the open market. If he puts up a career year or at least one in line with 2017 or 2019 over a full season of plate appearances than maybe he can get a little more but I would still be really nervous if my team signed him.
Im more scared of years than money. These decade long contracts are insane. Paying mookie betts until hes 40 is crazy
No it isn’t
Deals like that add years to lower the Average annual cost per year. It’s like Betts says give me 365M and Dodgers say sure but over 12 years.
I like a confident man. Go out and have a big year and get a big contract.
He denied it because they refused to include the buzzer.
Correa is laughing. 6/120MM is a joke. Maybe 6/180MM with some team options after that.
Xander Boagarts signed for 6/$120, so that offer is far from a joke. There’s no way any team is paying Correa $30M/yr. He’s just not worth that amount of money. He’ll be lucky to max out at an AAV of $25M. 6/$150 is his ceiling and it’s going to take a huge, healthy 2021 for him to even reach that. If he goes to free agency and holds out for more than this, I bet he’ll end up on a 1 year bridge contract because no one is dumb enough to pay him more than that.
What mantooth said
The XB comparison is flawed. Correa has 11 more WAR in way fewer games played. Correa is by far the superior player…..if he’s healthy.
Cap & Crunch
And also its cherry-picking one of the most favorable team friendly contracts there is in the game
Not a good barometer to gauge off of –
Not a Correa fan whatsoever but Id bet he def side-eyed 120 when it came back – Im mostly in favor of player taking the big offer when its on the table but this is def a case Correa should gamble on himself a bit this year
Correa is a much better player than Bogaerts. He has a career 127 OPS+, which leads all active SSs, except Seager, which is just 2 points higher at 129. Bogaerts OPS+ is 113. Plus turning down $20M/year doesn’t mean he’s expecting $30M per.
Perfect extension for McCullers. Right term & right AAV for a pitcher of his skill set. Well done, Houston! At worst, he’s a #3 starter and he has the ceiling of a #2 SP. Good #3’s earn between $12-$16M while good #2’s earn $18-$22M. I am a little surprised that Boras didn’t drag this out a little longer but he does listen to his clients. It seems like McCullers wasn’t asking to maximize his earnings; he just wanted a fair contract and Boras got it done, much like he did with Xander in Boston back in 2018.
I’m betting Correa’s Representatives are thrilled that the Astros leaked this to the media.
I’ll give him $20 to shave his puberty mustache
Make it 40
Story, Seager, Lindor and Boegarts are all better than Correa. If Correa truly wants to stay with Houston, he’s not going to get much more than the 6/120 they offered him. Maybe they push it to 6/132 but I’d be surprised if they went higher than that. Maybe Detroit will be willing to pay him 6/150 next year but that’s an overpay if you ask me. Only Lindor and Story are going to get $30M/yr and that might be an overpay too.
Bogaerts and story wish they were as good as correa. Ill give you lindor and seager. Correa’s problem has always been availability. Hes yet to put it completely together but the talent is undeniable
Cap & Crunch
Im not a Correa fan whatsoever but I will say when the lights are bright he rises up to the occasion far more than not –
I think there’s big value in that even tho it can’t be 100% certified
Seager is 100% getting 30+ next year as well, I see the Yankees just writing a blank check and the Dodgers pivoting reluctantly in other directions
7/225 with w player option to get 8/250 NYY so basically a quarter billion dollars to get that left handed, middle of the order ss, that elevates that offense to the highest levels in the game
Trevor story plays in a little league park. Lets not build his bust for cooperstown just yet
Seager 129 OPS+
Correa 127 OPS+
Lindor 117 OPS+
Story 114 OPS+
Bogaerts 113 OPS+
What about games played? Plus Xander started out slow but has been a stud the last 3 seasons.
Games played is the only category that Correa isn’t superior in. And the only question mark. But what if he’s able to put the injuries behind him? He has far more upside than Bogaerts, and I think worth the gamble.
But, as the two of them are right now, Correa is better than Bogaerts. He’s better offensively and miles better with the glove. Defensively Correa is 97 points in DRS better than Bogaerts.
This is just the starting point for negotiations. Astros view him at $120M/6 and Correa’s camp will use a comp of Manny Machado’s contract.
Well when he spends 60 days on the DL good luck being the most injury prone shortstop looking for the big money
NO massages this year Carlos!
Terrible offer. 20 million a year is fine if it’s more years. We want you for your best years then you can hit free agency again when you are in your mid 30s. Deal needs to be at least 8 years.
He probably gets 6/120 with an average year so makes sense to bet on himself having a great year. Trevor Bauer showed people you just need a great year before free agency to get a good deal.
Cap & Crunch
Jason Bay is the gold standard here
*Jacoby Ellsbury has entered the chat.*
Chris Davis says hi. It’s a reunion
Correa is such a moron, he’ll want tatis money and he’s a league average SS and a cheater that hasn’t produced since. Watch him turn his nose up at the *stros and then sit out all of 22 with no contract.
6/$120 is an insult. Correa is the 2nd best offensive SS behind Seager, and not by much, 2 points of OPS+ (127 and 129). Lindor is superior with the glove. and close with the bat. But Correa is far superior to Story and Bogaerts offensively.
If Lindor is looking at 10/$300m, there’s no way he’s better than Correa by 4 years and $180M. Astros are dreaming if they think that’s close to what he’ll get on the open market.
Cap & Crunch
Strange timing Indeed considering the Lindor numbers/chatter….you would have to think Houston would be best served just staying mum here and letting it all play out organically
Whatever the case, all these young Ss are hoping Lindor pops 300+ in the next few days then they show out better than him 2022 on the field .
I’m sure it was Correa’s camp that leaked the figure
Be careful, armchair GM’s compare him to boegarts.
Is this sarcasm? Bogaerts is better than Correa in only one stat: games played.
Correa is better by far offensively with a 127 wRC+ to Bogaerts 114.
Defensively, it’s not even close. For his career, Correa has a DRS of 47. And apparently Bogaerts’ is terrible with the glove. He has a career DRS of -50.
Lindor doesn’t get hurt every other week.
I think the large contracts for players of this magnitude are kind of a dangerous proposition for a team. I think this Free Agent class is incredibly loaded in talent, but then there are so many precedents of horrific contracts in comparison to production.
Look at the numbers before and after massive contracts if the following players:
1) Joe Mauer
2) Miguel Cabrera
3) Chris Davis (this one is laughably sad)
4) David Price
5) Robinson Cano
6) Giancarlo Stanton
7) Steven Strasberg
8) Buster Posey
9) Joey Votto
10) Albert Pujols
These are just a few of many. Not sure why it is, but it sure seems like the large contract with success are very rare these days.
Sure there are greater than $20 a year success stories like Kershaw or Sherzer.
It’s hard to quantify greater than $20 million on any of the great shortstops coming without a huge risk. I would happily sign a strong shortstop like Andrelton Simmons or Jose Iglesias and use the excess money on an ace over these incredible talents.
As Correa gets older just expect more injuries, not less. Therefore how much money should they pay a player only available less than 110 games, average defensive player, never with a 30hrs or 100 rbi or 100 runs… Never. Should they pay for a supposed potential never achieved? Just to hit a wastebasket, big mouth and a nickname Showrrea?
Exactly, my Lord!
Guys a cheating bum. Can’t stay healthy. His real value is only with Houston. Take the money you cheating liar
Correa does not want to hit FA in his early 30s as a SS.
He also wants to be a 1 team career guy who loves Houston.
He will move on rather than accept an offer He views as too short or too low but will accept a small hometown discount.
The deal must be at least 8 years.
He also just watched George Springer who is 3 years older and plays a less important defensive position get AAV $25 Mil.
With taxes benefitting in Texas, he may take $23 I don’t see less.
8 yrs $184 might get it done but anything less and he goes to free agency.
I guarantee they would regret that deal in year 2 if not sooner.
Actually Springer is five years older.
This Correa love thread is insane… do you any of you look at the kids actual #s? Clearly will never run like he did 5 years ago, and never sense then. JD Martinez will have more SB…
nothing like an injury prone player that you can expect 15-20 HR, ~ 100 RBI+Runs, 2 SB, .260/.340/.450 kinda line….
Oh and he is the face of a cheating scandal?
They are going off career numbers, which include career year for hitting while cheating, and citing that the only stat he lacks in is games played. Even if that’s true (it’s not), isn’t that kind of an important one, especially while he’s getting older? He already moves like he’s Herman Munster! Imagine when he hits 35?
But, I feel the Astros and Correa deserve each other….. Pay him…… one. Billion. Dollars.
I’ll be honest I’m no fan of Houston, especially Carlos Correa…but that bias aside it sounds crazy but this offer isn’t so far fetched. With the over saturation in the shortstop free agent market Correa may very well need to settle relative to what he and his agent think he’s worth. Maybe he gets more than this or a team with a better future (I think Houston is closing their window), but I doubt much more imo
The window is jammed in the open position. They’re predicted to score the most runs of any AL team this season and the only player they could potentially lose to FA is Correa. The pitching staff is intact until 2025 (McCullers, Valdez, Urquidy, Javier and Garcia) plus Odorizzi until 2023 and if they can’t sign Verlander or Greinke on lesser deals they’ll have plenty of money to play with. Altuve and Bregman are locked up through 2024, Yordan and Tucker through 2025.
As much as people wish it will, that window won’t be closing any time soon.
Where are they projected to score the most runs? Also the pitching staff is really unproven outside mccullers, so Grienke or Verlander leaving would hurt more than you think. They are also ranked to have the 2nd worst farm system, so not much help coming within the organization(draft penalties certainly don’t help). That championship window closed after 2019(they wouldn’t have gone to the playoffs in 2020 under “normal” rules),
I disagree with you. Also, it’s hard to discredit results after they’ve already happened just because you believe they wouldn’t have happened. Nothing was normal about last season.
Verlander was out and Greinke struggled, still almost made it to the WS. The farm system will have time to replenish since the team is pretty well put together through 2024. Also freed up money for free agents and international signings still are a major factor that the Astros will utilize in building for the future and present. They’re good and will continue to be
Unless I’m missing something it looks like on average you can count on him to play 2/3 of a season. He doesn’t seem to realize how much of a risk most GM’s are going to view him as.
Okay okay, we hear you. 6 years 121M.
He must think he’s leagues ahead of Bogarts, which he’s not. I’d rather him walk than to give him anything over 7/160. Peña and Nova both look great and are pushing to make it to the pros, Bregman is a SS and under control until after 2024, and they’ll have 5 other top notch options to choose from in FA if that’s the route they want to go. No way Correa gets a 10/250 or whatever he’s pushing for.
He is better than Bogarts and should get more.
Bogaerts, when he got his extension: .801OPS,107HR
Correa, to this point: .833 OPS, 107 HR
Like I said, he’s not leagues ahead of Bogaerts. He’s slightly better offensively and defensively. That’s why he should get paid slightly more. Not 5 mil per year for 10 years, more
He’s not factoring in the trashcan disount.
I hope the Astros pay him a lot for a long time. They are perfect for each other. A match made in trashcan.
Who would want this bum on their team for anywhere near that price
Really low? Stay healthy and then you can hope to get paid. Choose your Massage therapist wisely
Surprise Surprise! Trade him now for talent instead of a draft pick.
Correa changed his tune pretty quick – such loyalty. There’s a quality about Correa, reminds me of Jose Bautista, that I just can’t tolerate. All smoke, no fire.
He’s the best defensive SS in the game, has indisputable best arm at the position, and has pop (1 HR every 21 ABs).
Add in the fact he’ll be 26 and this dude will definitely get $30 mil a year. Only question is how long. I don’t think he’ll get a 10 yr deal like Machado, but 8/240 is not out of the question
Are you serious? Best arm? Not even on the best 10…
Boom, roasted I’m Just Better. I think his ‘undisputed’ best arm @ SS was just disputed quite well in that article.
Correa won’t sniff $30M/yr unless he is league MVP this year. The kid has never hit 25+ HRs in a season. He’s never had 100+ RBIs nor has he ever scored 100+ runs in a season either. No one is paying him $30M+ a year when he can’t even stay on the field, let alone perform like a Top 25 player in the game. He has to have an MVP caliber season to get anywhere close to $30M/yr. regardless of what Lindor just signed for.
Correa is overpaid right now. He’s a part-time player, with a glass body and as he get older will play less and less. Let him go to FA and take his popcorn, watch tv and have a massage while hitting a trashcan. Showrrea is a wanna be super star, he isn’t, never will. Owner’s shouldn’t pay for a potential after all these years. Bye bye… Save the money and trade the prima-dona or diva asap.
But he would make mad WWE promos.
Correa may not like the offer but I’m not sure the Astros go much over it. Maybe up it to 6 years $150 million but i can’t see them going $200 million. In the last three full seasons correa missed almost 200 games, so durability is certainly an issue. Astros have SS prospects coming so this could the end of his time in Houston
Offer a contract paying him $200,000 for every game he plays the next 6 years. Even games where he just pinch hits. Correa stays healthy he will be paid.
(Not a serious idea).
Proof MLB will die is in the pudding: Cheaters get caught and absolutely no negative consequences…here have 100-150 million dollars please and tell us more lies with a smile and thank you!
Just like Juan Igor González Texas… Detroit… Showrrea will regret not accepting the offer.
I would trade him, come up with a third baseman and move Bregman to short.
Every year this cheater has to play without cheating his numbers will continue to suffer and his AAV will drop $2M per year. Also, the Astros fan base is the only fan base that want this cheater.
Nothing you just said is even remotely accurate, but ok.
I love all the idiots referencing stats that are based on AVERAGES claiming that this guy is the best SS in baseball and deserves 300 million. What good is a statistical average when the guy plays about a third of a season every year? The Astros didn’t offer too little, they offered way too much. This clown is made of glass and is never even on the field. And FYI Lindor’s deal has nothing to do with any of the other deals that the rest of the SS free agent class will sign. You’re talking about a Mets organization that is hell bent on spending money at the moment. No other team is really looking to freely throw 300 million at a SS at the moment when there’s like five of them available next year. I’d be willing to bet anything no other SS on that list will sign for anything close to 300 million next year.
I think it remains to be seen whether or not the Mets want to spend money like that. So far it’s just an assumption fans are making.
The bottom line is Correa has averaged 127 games played for each 162.
Yes he is injury prone and yes he has missed many many games. But he has played 3/4 of the games since he has been in the majors.
He has also averaged 5.5 bWAR in those 127 games.
Clearly he is not Worth $300 million, but considering the salary system and history of MLB, his production, and his age $120 million is not too much.
Well… we in Puerto Rico have Correa, Lindor and Báez again for the upcoming WBC. What a problem!!!
Hope this costs him money.
Click can believe there’s a chance, but I don’t see much of it. Their 6/120 extension offer was way low. Has a big year in 2021? He gets a huge free agent contract. Has a so-so year, the Astros will still QO him at $19 or $20M. He can accept. So all he has to do is have one very good year in the next two to beat an approximate 5/100. With Tatis getting $340M, and Lindor already sitting with a $325M offer on the table, it’s crazy to think Correa will sign any contract starting in the $100M range. Correa believes in himself.
You are obviously correct lord. But the one thing the Astros have on their side is Correa wants to be an Astro. The 6-120 was an embarrassing offer and has faced enormous backlash here in houston. I believe Correa will sign for much less then he could fetch on the open market but will only sign for what he feels is a strong offer
He probably just wants to be free from the taint of being on the assbros. Cant blame him, a truly low class operation.
He’ll never be free of it, him & all the trash can boys are tainted for life. Life!
Maybe if they threw in a bigger massage table?
He’s a turd
Ok I’ll bite. 8/188, 15million signing bonus, incentives, and front loaded. Take it or leave it
With his pedigree, going into a season where he is currently healthy, before he is scheduled to be a free agent, there’s not much chance he signs a team-friendly deal. He won’t get a 10-year monster deal because of his injury history, but he will almost definitely get a 7-8 year offer, probably over $27m a year, but that’s the range I’d peg him at. I’m sure he’s holding out for 30, but he’d need a monster year and he’d have to look for that on the open market. Houston’s leverage is they have other options if he doesn’t resign, but they’ll have to beat the market to get one.
Dear Astros, please pay this guy as much money as it takes for him to stay in Houston. Back the Brinks truck up to his front door. He’s worth every penny.
Regards, the 29 other MLB teams
Carlos Correa is so Fukn overrated
Click: “Listen Carlos, you hit free agency ain’t nobody gonna be hittin trash cans for ya.”
Correa: (short pause) “Where do I sign?”
I wouldn’t mund having Correa. But he is not close to Lindor
It may very well be the case that the two sides aren’t close on a deal, but I find it incredibly hard to believe they’ve spent the past 4 days in discussions with no movement whatsoever. That just doesn’t happen, they’d say talks have ceased, not negotiations are ongoing. My ‘Jon Heyman is full of crap’ sense is tingling.
If Lindor got $341M, Correa is going to hold out for at least $200M in his upcoming FA contract. While he’s not as good as Lindor and his health record is spotty, he’s still a top 6 SS in MLB and is a couple years younger than Lindor as well. If the Astros won’t budge on their 6/$120M offer then Correa has no choice but to play out this season, do what he can to stay healthy, play 140+ games and put up career-best numbers. If he’s able to do all that, he’s looking at an 8+ year deal in FA somewhere in the $25M/yr. range. 8/$200M sounds about right. If he happens to get hurt again and miss significant time then all bets are off on what teams would be willing to pay him, and for how long. The old saying of “you can’t make the club when you’re in the tub” rings true in Correa’s case. If he does miss significant time, he might have to sign a 1 year pillow contract. Out of all the FA SS’s next year, Correa is by far the hardest one to predict contract AAV and contract length for. So much rides on his 2021 performance and health.
Trade him at the deadline even if they are in the hunt for the playoffs. Don’t just get a draft choice.