MARCH 26: The extension is official, the Astros announced.
MARCH 24: Lance McCullers Jr. won’t be heading to free agency next winter after all. One month after making clear he hoped to forgo the open market and stick with the Astros, the right-hander has reportedly agreed to a five-year contract extension that will begin in 2022 and run through the 2026 season. McCullers, a client of the Boras Corporation, will reportedly be guaranteed $85MM and receive a limited no-trade clause.
Because the deal doesn’t kick in until the 2022 campaign, it does not impact the Astros’ luxury tax ledger for the current season. That’s a critical point for the ’Stros, who have worked diligently to remain south of the $210MM threshold. The contract reportedly comes with a $3.5MM signing bonus, salaries of $15.25MM in 2022-23 and a $17MM annual salary from 2024-26.
McCullers, who’s about to embark on his age-27 campaign, has been a career-long Astro to this point. The team used the 41st overall pick on him in 2012, and he has since produced quality results in the majors. Dating back to his big league debut in 2015, McCullers has pitched to a 3.70 ERA/3.61 SIERA with an above-average strikeout rate (26.4) and a tremendous 55.2 percent groundball rate across 508 2/3 innings. With the exception of 2016, when his walk rate spiked to 12.8 percent, he’s generally kept that mark better than the league average as well.
Durability has been a problem for McCullers, though, as he has never even reached the 130-inning mark in a season. He topped out at 128 1/3 frames in 2018, the year after he helped pitch the Astros to a World Series championship, before undergoing Tommy John surgery.
McCullers missed all of 2019 as a result of the procedure, but he did make a strong return last year with 11 starts and 55 innings of 3.93 ERA/3.95 SIERA pitching, solid strikeout and walk percentages (24.7 and 8.8, respectively) and a 59.7 percent grounder rate. Still, this is an unprecedented guarantee for a starting pitcher who’s never made more than 22 starts in a big league season.
While it’s risky for the Astros to make this type of commitment to a hurler who has had trouble staying healthy, they know McCullers is at least a mid-rotation-caliber starter when he does take the mound. And this move will lead to less uncertainty in Houston’s starting staff a year from now, as veterans Zack Greinke and Justin Verlander could depart in free agency next offseason. Even if those two exit, the Astros figure to return McCullers, Jake Odorizzi, Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier and Jose Urquidy in 2022.
Of course, next winter’s free-agent class looks a bit less interesting with McCullers off the market. But Greinke, Verlander, Trevor Bauer (if he opts out of his Dodgers deal), Max Scherzer, Clayton Kershaw, Noah Syndergaard, Marcus Stroman and Kevin Gausman are among many established starters who could be searching for new deals then.
It’s an obviously strong class, and the Astros can afford to be major players in the market if they choose, given that even after this new McCullers deal they’re at $91.7MM in guaranteed money on the books. For a club that’s topped $160MM in payroll in each of the past four seasons now (prior to prorating in 2020), there will be ample room to spend on the open market.
Mark Berman of FOX 26 first reported that an agreement was in place. ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported the terms, while MLB Network’s Jon Heyman and USA Today’s Bob Nightengale added contractual details (Twitter links).
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Called it yesterday 5 yrs
Brilliant! Who you like in the Derby this year?
5yrs/what? Let’s test your skills.
I’m gonna varmit.
Awesome, when will I finally get a girlfriend? Please tell me, Please
Passan says it’s 85 million, if so then that’s a good deal for both parties. Anything more than that and I’m thinking we overpaid. Lance has ace stuff but he’s not an ace, he’s a solid #2 but not an ace, at least not yet. Either way, the rotation next year looks strong. Lance, Framber, Urquidy, Odorizzi, Javier with Garcia and Abreu (who I love btw) ready to go also.
Urquidy me
Forgot Greinke
I thought Greinke was gone next year (FA)…..
he is
McCullers got 85 million because the Trashtro’s are hemorrhaging talent, and now their answer is to over pay an injury prone barely above avg pitcher who doesnt give the team IP in any kind of bulk..
Did you know that Tim Teufel’s cousin is an actuary? And that the baseball team in Houston is the Astros?
Glad I could clear that up.
why,
You might not care for Devildogs4’s shiptosting, but his point isn’t far off the mark. LMcCJr. gives off a really strong Rich Harden vibe – amazing promise and as fragile as porcelain. Let’s see if he can stay healthy and finally reach the 23 starts/130 innings marks in a season.
Nooo I wanted him to follow Springer to Toronto.
lol
He actually did decide to go to Toronto but then an hour later he changed his mind and stayed in Houston.
Dude ptsd
He can be a really solid starter, but his biggest issue year in year out is health. He’s never even reach the 25 games started mark, nor has he ever even reached 150 innings in a season. There’s definiltey some risk in extending him, but he’s still pretty young and has been a quality arm for the most part.
Never hit 130 innings. 15mil a year for 5inn over 22-25 starts?
I think it’s clear there is risk, but there is also an incredible amount of potential in this deal. You can kind of talk yourself into him not having too many miles on his arm at this point could actually be a good thing. Those innings numbers will for sure need to go up though.
Good point about the low miles. As for his injuries, in 2016 it was his shoulder, 2017 his back, and then 2018/19 elbow and subsequent TJ surgery. Point is, they’ve been somewhat sporadic and don’t seem like recurring issues.
“ The McCullers “total innings” concerns are overblown, by the way. 2015, you have to include innings in the minors, since he wasn’t called up until late May.
2016 to 2018, we know what the issue was: UCL. He had surgery to fix it. Needing TJ twice is rare.
2020, short season.”
So you just listed an excuse for each season he has been in the majors for why his innings are low and that doesn’t concern you???????
Ok then….
I’ve never particularly been a McCullers fan, but I like that the Astros are locking up their core (or at least some of it). I don’t see him being as good as some think, but still a solid deal to lock him up long term.
LMC is not durable but there are plenty of opportunities to help the team as a long reliever if needed, even a closer with that nasty curve ball. He is a treasure in postseason games.
Ha. They are not shelling out 5/85 for vision of long reliever.
Wouldn’t be a first time a team has done that though. Look at Boston and Eovaldi.
If he for some reason cannot go as a starter, then they would make him a closer. He would likely be an elite closer.
Bullpen is likely last resort if he continues to fail to reach even 125 innings/20 starts a season. This is a starter’s extension first and foremost.
Still wondering when this supposed exodus of players from the Astros that EPSN wrote will happen. Fake news.
Where did they say that? It’s just further proof everyone already knew what Houston was doing and knew it was not much different that the other teams.
They have him over the next 6 seasons at basically 15 million a season. That is a good deal for the Astros because of his upside, he has a lot of unrealized potential if he can stay healthy and more consistent.
Why would you ignore that he was already signed much cheaper for this season, I never understand why people just average out contract value without accounting for the actual circumstances of the player.
Lol… Oh boy! Have your husband explain!
Interesting, are you insinuating that men are too stupid to consider context? Otherwise your post just makes no sense.
Click got played by boras who knew click had money coming off the books at the end of the year.boras’ next prey will be zaidi of the giants who has a ton of money coming off his books at the end of the year.
McCullers will be on the il list by july of this year.
Overpaid. Now Mets need to offer Thor at least 5 years/$100M
Thor doesn’t deserve it. He needs to stay healthy and he seems bad for the clubhouse
Lol why? Never heard anything about teammates having a problem with him (or indeed Mets fans). Pay the man.
Your proof of Thor being bad in the clubhouse?
Not a Mets fan, but I’ve never heard of Thor being a problem in the clubhouse either. Where did you get that from?
I predicted 5-90. Very good deal for both sides. McCullers s probably would have gotten more on the open market but he wanted to stay. Now for carlos!
I predicted 5/85! Do I win a prize?
Yes.
A Yankee hat.
lmao
One year longer than I thought he’d get, but what a great price! Plus he’s an Astro for his entire prime. Love this deal
Now we know what a ST pitcher who avg about 5.5 inn/start can get$
You just described Almost every pitcher
He would have taken 5/50
Really? When did you talk to him?
I’m hoping Boston can use that as a template/baseline to extend E-Rod. He’s also a starter who has had injury troubles (although none arm related) and rates as a solid #2 starter.
I expected him to get something close to Zack Wheeler’s deal on the open market, considering McCullers was reaching free agency at an even younger age than Wheeler, and has even higher upside than him. So it looks like the Astros did pretty decently here. He’ll only be 32 when the contract is up.
LOL… Stop It
Wow—Boras let a client extend instead of taking him to free agency??? Sign of hope or the apocalypse?? Not sure. 😛
His ability to use pine tar to increase his spin is impeccable! Perfect long term solution to Astros (tr is silent) or Astrolls.
Lol you actually took the time to type that out. The Asos, as you call them, will be good for years to come and Bots/haters will have something they love to hate. Enjoy and you’re welcome.
Top 60th percentile in fastball spin rate and 81st percentile in cruveball spin rate doesn’t really point to someone using a foreign substance on the mound. Compare that to a guy like Trevor Bauer who was in the top 100th and 92nd percentiles and Gerrit Cole in the 94th and 83rd percentiles. I don’t like the Astros but if he’s using some sticky stuff on the mound, he’s not using it right or he’s really bad at cheating.
Assuming he pitches 130 innings this year, that works out to $130,770 per inning or $43,589.43 per out.
Overpaid. I hit a double off of him in high school, also an HBP on my foot…Safe to say he’s overrated lol
P.S. Not overpaid, and my foot still hurts from that day 9/10 years ago.
No one noticed it says McCullers pitched 128 1/3 innings in the year 2018 when he led the Astros to a world series championship? Pretty sure we all know what really happened that year. Normally all the commenters love to point out mistakes and make fun of this site. Surprised no one has.
Because the article said “the year after”
Where’s the spoon?
A-ha
Ya got me
Good gosh that’s a lot for him. Slightly above average can’t stay healthy and he’s not even a free agent yet good gosh.
Overpay for a guy that has never pitched 130IP in a year.
Seems like a good deal based on the market rate for young starters. I earlier suggested the Wheeler deal as a baseline, meaning talented young starter who has had difficulty staying healthy. I didn’t think he’d get $118M, but targeted a 5/100 with an opt out after the second year. The Astros did even better. Coming in $19M lower isn’t a surprise, but I thought Boras would ask for an opt out to cover McCullers in case he hits the high end of his potential.
Interesting deal. For a guy who misses bats and generates a ton of ground balls, McCullers has an interesting profile. This could either be a bargain or based on his medical history, could go horribly wrong. Remind me a bit of the Dodgers signing Darren Dreifort to a 5/55 deal.
Clearly the FO and team doctors know something we don’t. I would never have guessed he’d get 5 years before a solid “prove it” season.
As an Angel fan, I’ve seen enough of him to think he’s a douchebag. But there’s probably also a bit of jealousy that the Astros are locking up a starting pitcher.
You’re confusing him with Carlos Correa. Now that’s a douchebag!
Good for both. If he stays healthy it’s a steal for the astros. I like it. A full healthy season this year and he would get a lot more.
Why?
He would have to have a career year to top this number….Houston just assumed a boatload of risk for not that much potential surplus value
If anyone still thinks Boras has a pattern to his methods like not extending they are wrong, its pretty simple, get the best deal at the right time and this was it for Lance…well done by Lance and Co here
Your avi suggests you love the Betts deal. Talk about risk. 12 years, 30+ mill per year, now THAT is some risk. The McCullers deal was a smart move all things considered and he’s still young.
The McCullers “total innings” concerns are overblown, by the way. 2015, you have to include innings in the minors, since he wasn’t called up until late May.
2016 to 2018, we know what the issue was: UCL. He had surgery to fix it. Needing TJ twice is rare.
2020, short season. He’s done well this spring and he feels better than ever. It isn’t quite a team friendly deal yet, but it could very well turn into one. #1-#2 SP’s have been getting 20+ per year easy. It also takes the pressure off McCullers because he’s already secured a solid payday and doesn’t have to worry about free agency. Both sides won.
Needing TJS twice is not rare. Returning from your 2nd TJS to be as good or better? Now that’s rare
You have that backwards.
Bassit, AJ Burnett, Carlos Carrasco, Chris Carpenter, Patrick Corbin, Yu Darvish, Ryan Dempster, Jacob DeGrom, Max Fried, Tim Hudson, John Lackey, Charlie Morton, John Smoltz, Strasburg, Adam Wainwright, and Kerry Wood all had excellent years after TJ. Even McCullers looked great last season and had it not been for 1 inning in Arizona he would’ve finished the year with a 2.80 ERA. Less than 20% of people that undergo TJ require it a second time.
Does anyone here assess and manage the risks of financial investments, insurance policies, and other potentially risky ventures? It sounds like what we’re talking about here, potentially risky ventures.
He’s not worth half of that. He’s injury prone
He’s had 1 injury and he got it surgically repaired. That’s not injury prone.
A lot of Monet for someone who has never pitched over 130 innings in a season.
Perfectly decent when he is healthy…When being the key word. Reminds of of the Darren Dreifort extension Boras got the guy back in the day, sold the Dodgers on potential and sadly injuries battered him.
Big money teams like the yankees and Red Sox are into signing guys like this, regardless of their innings statistics. The upside is worth the money for those that have it to spend.
The way teams are starting to use their starters 130-150 innings is going to be average soon. 90 to 100 pitches and a couple times through the lineup and turn it over to the bullpen. Sad to see the lack of 8 and 9 inning starters but players are to valuable to risk and the game is changing.
All that said, I think it’s a little over pay but not much for what he is.
There are two requirements: get to the postseason, get to the postseason with healthy and not worn out pitchers. If 130 innings works, mission accomplished.
It’s quite frustrating bc many entertaining aspects of the game are disappearing and they aren’t being replaced with anything new and exciting.
There is a reason people watch golf and not the long drive contest. Same goes for baseball. Hopefully the leaders in the game realize this before it’s too late.
I always have high hopes for McCullers, however, I was actually sort of looking forward to the end of his Astros tenure. He always disappoints. This is way too much commitment to a pitcher that has been with us for 6 years and never eclipsed 130 innings. His two major flaws are health and mound composure, not stuff, so at least there is attainable upside.
So now that he’s 100% healthy and has matured, you’d like to see him leave. Makes sense
And if 2017 was a disappointment for you then nothing will satisfy you. He dominated at 23 and he’s only getting better as he’s been healthy.
This should be a good comp for Syndergaard
Thor won’t accept a deal like this and not sure the Mets would offer a deal like this until he shows he’s back and effective. He has the second half of 2021 to show the latter and at that point he’ll be a free agent. Thor has a big payday coming.
Sure, he may not have the durability that other pitchers do, but he’s productive and when he’s at his best, he’s downright nasty. So yeah, even though I am a Yankees fan, I think this is a good deal for the Astros, especially since Greinke and Verlander don’t have that many years left.
The only thing you can count on Lance for is not playing a full season.