After a difficult start to his career, White Sox right-hander Lucas Giolito established himself as a bona fide top-of-the-rotation starter over the previous two seasons. The 26-year-old now looks like a long-term cornerstone for the franchise, though it doesn’t appear either side has aggressively pursued a contract extension.
“There haven’t really been discussions about an extension, which is fine,” Giolito, a CAA Sports client, told James Fegan of The Athletic. “I think the organization knows that I value myself. I know kind of what I’m worth.”
Fortunately for the White Sox, they’re in no imminent danger of losing Giolito, who has three years of arbitration control remaining. However, they have shown in recent years that they’re willing to lock up their core players for the long haul. To name a few prominent examples, the team has signed shortstop Tim Anderson, third baseman Yoan Moncada, and outfielders Eloy Jimenez and Luis Robert to extensions dating back to 2017. Giolito certainly ranks up there with that group in terms of his importance to the club.
This year, Giolito will earn $4.15MM, which is a major bargain for what he has brought to the table dating back to 2019. While Giolito was one of the worst starters in baseball in 2018, during which he logged a 6.13 ERA/5.37 SIERA in 173 1/3 innings, the light bulb has since gone on for the former star prospect. Giolito notched a 3.43 ERA/3.55 SIERA with a 32.7 percent strikeout rate against an 8.6 percent walk rate across 249 innings over the prior two seasons, and he finished seventh in the American League Cy Young balloting a year ago.
6 years 175 million
You need a bit more that last season to set this value. We should have a real good idea after this season.
Okay how about Last season and 2019 then. Giolito oozes confidence and talent, he has shown he can learn and apply what he’s learned. He is in the zone and won’t be leaving for a long time barring injury.
That’s fine, but for me I still need to see this season to make a final determination. As far as confidence goes, lots of pitchers, good and not-so-good have this so I’m not giving a contract on that alone.
For me, I’d like to see a lower ERA, As of now he projected to have a 4.17 which is not top-line starter quality.
Darth- That’s cool and I still respect ERA but more and more it seems the ERA is at the mercy of the Official Scorer who can’t make a correct judgement. Anyone else see the official scorers as bad or is it just me?
@ darth you know, a 3 ERA at Coors isn’t bad at all. Any other team, that can easily translate to a 2.50-3 ERA. Just imagine if we was on a San Diego team? His ERA would be a lot lower and CY Young candidate. Coors Field is a nightmare for pitchers and a hitter is paradise for everyone else.
umm. quick question how dose coors field and petco have on a pitcher who pitches in the alc.
@ PeteWard8;
It’s nice that he’s oozing confidence and talent.
Pitching is a crap shoot. Now, Let’s have some fun…..
Go back 3 years to 2018 and look at the best pitchers in MLB. Tell me how good they are today and if they’re worth top salaries today.
Berrios • MIN
Bundy • BAL
Carrasco • CLE
Chacin • MIL
Chatwood • CHC
Clevinger • CLE
Cole • HOU
Corbin • ARI
Foltynewicz • ATL
Heaney • LAA
Keuchel • HOU
Kluber • CLE
Manaea • OAK
Mengden • OAK
Mikolas • STL
Morton • HOU
Paxton • SEA
Scherzer • WSN
Severino • NYY
Snell • TBR
Stratton • SFG
Syndergaard • NYM
Taillon • PIT
Tanaka • NYY
Verlander • HOU
Williams • PIT
Ziegler • 2TM
Samuel- you lost me at Dylan Bundy.
In 2018 Bundy went 8-16 with a 5.45 ERA
But I can understand your skepticism for pitchers.
was there anyone on bal better than bundy in 18. btw hopefully soon there is some light at the end of the tunnel for bal fans
brodie-bruce- I don’t know but Bundy wasn’t among the top 27 pitchers in baseball 2018 as Samuel had him ranked.
wasn’t saying bundy was top 30 just sam listed the top sp for each team that year and tbh at this point Anchorage community college has a better pitching staff than bal.
Just you, Pete.
But as far as a Giolito extension- I am certain that Giolito has no intention of ever signing an extension with the Chisox. Never. He was forced to get to the Reinsdorf crew, and he can’t wait to get back to throwing back home in California.
Stratton? Mengden? Ziegler? Chatwood? Heaney? Those were the best 2018 had to offer?
Wah, Reinsdorf stole my binky. Wah!
brodie-bruce- Samuel Didn’t list the top pitcher from every team. He listed who he thought were the top 27 pitchers in 2018 Including 4 from the Astros.
Hi Dogbone. Long time no hear. Never say never.
lol stop smoking
You must not be a White Sox fan…
Hahahaah 6 years $175M let’s just break that down.
Year 1 $4M (he already agreed to this for 2021)
Year 2 $9M (generous second year arb raise)
Year 3 $14M (another generous raise)
That’s $27M over the first 3 years leaving $148M over the next 3 years in your scenario. $49.33M per year hahahaha
I’d propose $110M over 6 years including a $30M club option for a 7th year w a $3M buyout
think his proposal begins next year since he’s already agreed to the 4.1 this year
@boknows…
That’s a very team friendly deal and a dumb one to sign as a player.
He can’t control the next 3 arb seasons. But you’re effectively having him sign away his 3 prime FA seasons at ages 29-32 if you add the option without the team having to buy out any of the declining years.
If he just goes to FA he is likely to command 6-8 year contract at age 29. Then you need to remember that quality pitching costs more and more every year.
In your world, it’s roughly 3yrs @80m, and, sacrificing another team friendly option for nothing on the player side.
Maybe a deal more like 9 years, 190m if you really want to lock him up. That’s 3@ 30m, then a 6yr, 160m FA deal wrapped into one. Much more similar to a market value deal to lock him in… IF you feel he’s worth locking up
nice take gasox 9@200ish seems like a good bet on both sides. it’s semi-risky on the soxs if he gets hurt or weeks fall off and on the player side your losing maybe 25% of your top dollar if you transcend to another level than where your at but you get low end top salary. kinda sounds like a win on both sides but then again this is just an armchair gm trying to be a gm lol.
If he signs a mega deal I bet it has an opt out(s) somewhere
The Moncada extension should be used as a guide for Giolito.
If I’m the Sox, I want a bigger discount than that to do a deal right now.
@CalcetinesBlancos, I agree. People who want the Sox to offer full FMV forget that the Sox would be taking on a risk of his injury or decline. They have no reason to do so without any financial incentive.
John Danks says hi. 4 yr $60 mill extension that went badly
Totally. I like him and I respect his right to go to FA, but the Sox hold all the cards here. Not only do they control him cheap for three years, but they only have to commit a year at a time. Any long deal for a pitcher is a big risk IMO, plus even if he gets to FA the Sox can always re-sign him.
And yes, I will admit that I am still bitter the Sox signed Danks and let Buehrle walk, although I never bought the BS that it had to be one or the other. Buehrle even confirmed later that he would have re-signed for peanuts. I hate KW.
John Danks was every bit as good as Buerhle from 2008 to 2011 and significantly younger with less wear and tear, so it made sense if they were only going to sign one.
And you are talking about the White Sox. Of course it was one or the other.
I didn’t think it’s made sense. And I was right lol.
He still has two more years of arbitration at maybe 16 million total. You’re saying another 4/160 making him a 40 million dollar player. He would sign in a second. 6/125 is more along the right line.
Felt we should’ve signed after the questionable season for the discounted rate.
So today I was thinking about Giolito’s trajectory, and I compared it to *maybe* what we could see from Rangers’ pitcher – Kolby Allard. Both were former top prospects, and both had terrible first stints in the league. Of course Allard has different issues to tackle than Giolito, but I think we could see a real improvement from him this season.
What I heard today over the Rangers’ ST broadcast only backed up that notion. Allard, 1. Moved to the 1B side of the rubber (as a lefty this helps more than being on the 3B side of the rubber). Good rule of thumb is that pitchers should – more often than not – stand on their arm-side of the rubber. The 2nd reason: He worked on tunneling this off-season. He has below-average control, and he has below-average strikeout stuff, so tunneling could really help him on his path to being a more crafty pitcher.
and this has to do with giolitos extension how? just felt like shoehorning some observation you made about one of your rangers pitchers on a random thread?
Try 6 years $105 million, keeping his salary the same for this year it means that he’ll be paid about $20 million a year for the next 5 years. He gets paid like he should, and the Sox get 3 FA years of control.
That won’t get it done John. If it would include this year I would want him here for ten years. The money can be worked out . I’m pretty sure a deal at ten years could be reached anyway.
10 years? They wouldn’t even do that for Buehrle. No way they’re going more than 5 on a starter on the Southside.
If somebody else will do it, let them.
@frank you reminded me of when i was in hs watching my buddy go 2~4 with a double and a hr off a buehrle. other than my buddy bue was dealing and my team lost but not bad for a couple local stl kids. i know this doesn’t have much on this post but i a was felling nostalgic and wanted to throw this in
Glory days. Pass you by.
A 10 year deal only adds 7 additional seasons of control. If the Chi Sox believe he’s a true ace, he’s probably getting 6-7 years in FA. If there’s a decent discount on the AAV, it could easily happen
7 more years isn’t far off from 5 that you claim they’ll never surpass
buehrle? i could never understand all the love for him. frankly, buehrle’s career won’t compare (in the least) to giolito’s. in 14 seasons, his LOWEST era was 3.12. he NEVER won 20 games. after his age 23 season which was his 3rd season, he NEVER AGAIN gave up fewer hits than innings pitched. he was actually lit up pretty mercilessly for the rest of his career, except for two games. and his lifetime strikeout rate of 5.1 per 9 innings is a joke! if white sox fans need some past great pitching icon, check out the stats for billy pierce, for gary peters, for joel horlen. buehrle was merely a GOOD pitcher and a GREAT fielder and worked MORE QUICKLY than anyone else…hardly worthy of all the post-career hype that he has somehow managed. after his age 23 season, he was worthy of an extension, but pitchers weren’t extended back then! fortunately, the sox didn’t extend him, because he NEVER AGAIN pitched at that level. however your comment re extending him seems to be aimed at one of his last 5 seasons, any one of which could be considered just barely better than AVERAGE! and discussion back then (if you remember) was more centered around extending him for sentimental reasons than for any imagined pitching excellence!
Buerhle took the ball every four days and went six innings, mostly putting in his team in a position to win the game.
The obsession over K/9 rates or even fielding independent pitching I will never understand. If a player is effective at missing bats and getting outs, as Burhele was, and as Keuchel is, that is fine.
exactly right…took the ball and pitched 6 innings…just what you hope to get out of a number 4 or 5 starter…on an “also ran” team.
compare that to what we’re likely to see out of michael kopech this season…ace quality stuff, very low hits allowed per inning pitched, and high number of strikeouts per inning pitched…all making it harder than hell to score any runs off of him! i’ll even take a “one year wonder,” like loaiza rather than a guy who’s going to be hit as mercilessly as buehrle was. give me a succession of one year wonders rather than a buehrle or a ted lyons (somehow, a hall-of-famer!) whose claims to fame were that they could “take the ball” turn after turn, year after year…albeit with mediocre results.
I know position players can get hurt too, but it always seems way riskier extending pitchers vs position players. All it takes is 1 TJ to make the deal look terrible. Just look at Chris Sale.
You really should not loop late 20s extensions and mid to late 30s extensions
Two completely different beasts
The issue with extensions for pitchers especially, is that they are so injury prone. It is such a gamble.
White Sox have 3 yrs of team control. He turns 30 yrs old half way into the 2024 season.he’s a FA for the 2024 season. If they extend him now for the 2021 season I’d say 6 yrs maybe 7 which would buyout 3 or 4 yrs of free agency I’d say:
6 yrs/$105 to $115M
or
7 yrs/$130M
Seems fair to both sides, in my opinion.
If you are him, why would you sign away your ONLY chance at a mega deal, hitting FA at 30, unless you are being guaranteed money deep into your career
Guys aren’t signing until 32 or 33 anymore. They know the big FA money isn’t there
Really depends on what Giolito wants to do. I believe he was a Super 2, so he has 4 years of arbitration, (3 more after 2021). He’s making $4.1M this year. That probably goes to $8.5M in Year 2, $13M in Year 3 and maybe $20M in year 4 if he continues to excel. If the Sox want cost certainty but not overcommit, they could sign him to a 5 year/$70M deal, including replacing his salary for 2021. That would give him a cost of $14M/year for the next 5 years including this one. This would only buy out 1 year of free agency but give him life changing money. If they want to go further, 6/$100M or 7/$130M, but I’d be hesitant to go that far with him. Lock him up for 5 years with the rest of the core at reasonable money.
6-100 7-130 is Kris Bryant money. I was thinking 10-250. Giolito will be considered the best pitcher in baseball over the next few years. Lock him in now.
He has three years plus 80 days of service time, so he’s only under contract for two more seasons after 2021.
cyril figgins (dorothy) are you an account for a living every time i see you make projections there pretty spot on with the accounting nature fo are doing. i only ask because you seem to be a numbers guy and your profile pic is cyril. (btw i mean no offense you bring a good blend of being a fan but this is what fo look at)
Again. Why would the player sign this deal?
You’re giving him a below average FA AAV but you’re also not signing him for his decline. He just said he knows what he’s worth. Why would he sign such a team friendly, anti-player deal
How many guys are getting a mega deal at 33?
At this point, why would Giolito sign an extension? After this season, he’s only two seasons away from the neighborhood of Strasburg and Cole money, and he knows it! Just look at the quote from him above. He made it through the true grind of sub-$1M contracts into arbitration. Three years of making well-above-minimum salary while further shaping himself into a Cole-level ace will be a cakewalk compared to his career up to this point.
From the player’s perspective, why sign now? He looks in the mirror and sees a $300M ace. And it’s hard to blame him, frankly. Anything can happen, but a player of his stature will never expect to fail. Also, it doesn’t sound like his family was hurting for money even before he became a pro, so he may not have as many off-the-field pressures that would cause him to lean toward the guaranteed money of an extension.
tricalcium- you are right. He won’t sign a piece of crap deal and that’s for sure.
tricalcium impoundment22 mins ago
At this point, why would Giolito sign an extension? After this season, he’s only two seasons away from the neighborhood of Strasburg
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That is a strange way of saying that he still has 3 full seasons left.
why would any player take an extension is security and i’m willing to to bet if cws offer a lower end of kershaw, greinke, verlander ect deal he would sign. what’s to say he goes out next start an blows his arm out and is never the same. it’s the same as if he signs a “team friendly” deal and is underpaid. contracts like this so early are risky on both sides as a player are you leaving money on the table and on the team side am i paying for a flash in the pan or dl guy.
The “well he could get hurt so there’s no reason to sign him” argument is maybe the dumbest on this board. Anyone can get hurt. You pay talent and training to weather injuries
Do you want to watch the talent on your team? Or watch the talent beat you? Pay up
If the Sox get an extension from Giolito, it would have to be much, much more than they’ve done before if it goes much into FA territory..
Look at the Chris Sale extension – bought out his arb years and one FA year, at a pretty steep discount; but they got that in large part because Sale was thought to be a pretty high injury risk at the time due to his delivery. (That was 5/$32M, including one pre-arb year, 3 arb years, and one FA year). 1/3/6/9/12, basically.
Giolito already has the first arb year, at $4m, and so the Sale version of the extension would be 4/8/12/16 roughly; $40m/4 years (basically upping the arb by 4m each year). That I see the White Sox going for – but there’s a big difference: Giolito already has the first 4m. Sale didn’t – and so he had an incentive to lock in money when he had nothing.
Giolito has 4m already – if he never gets another contract he will still have life-changing money and time to find a new career. So a lot less incentive to not bet on himself.
$4M is not life-changing money. It’s good money. You could probably retire and live a decent life if you had the after-tax money in the stock market.
Joebrady is right. $4m is chump change. You’d be a fool to waste space in your savings for a measly $4m. Unless my boss gives me a $50m+ raise, I’d spit in his face. I couldn’t even fill up my tank for $4m. What an insultingly small amount of money.
Arte, sign this man when he reaches free agency! Giolito is from SoCal, so he should come to the Angels when he’s an FA.
We all know Arte ain’t signing a pitcher.
I’d ride out at least another year if I’m the White Sox. Plenty of time for an extension.
No need to go racing into extensions with starting pitchers. Always be patient with the starting pitchers. We can heat up extension discussions after the 2022 season.
So… one season away from free agency?
I’d expect it gets MUCH more expensive when a guy is 12 or fewer months from FA to sign an extension instead of testing the market…..
The full James Fegan interview article was entitled, “White Sox ace Lucas Giolito on future, lofty 2021 goals: ‘I’ll get the job done’.” It was thorough and comprehensive, as are most all of Fegan’s pieces regarding the team. You cannot get an accurate reading of Giolito’s positive attitude regarding the entire White Sox family and how he fits in from the simple snippet offered here regarding the possibility of a contract extension.
It’s common knowledge among White Sox fans how Giolito feels about new pitching coach Ethan Katz who was his high school skipper and is someone who has continued to offer advice since then, including some hands on personal instruction following his difficult 2018 season. He’s also looking forward to pitching for new HOF manager Tony :La Russa. What fans might not know is the appreciation Giolito bestowed upon former manager Rick Renteria and pitching Don Cooper with the confidence and instruction they offered him during his development.
There is also an important paragraph from the Fegan article that many White Sox fans might not be aware of regarding the ace pitcher and one that could certainly factor into any contract extension discussions: “Giolito’s exposure to the business side of baseball began at 17, when the status of his injured elbow became a negotiation point in the draft, and asserting his value became essential. He credits a close relationship with his agent, Ryan Hamill, for building out his understanding of the sport’s landscape. Giolito’s uncle, Robert Giolito, is one of the prominent labor attorneys in the country and represented the Screen Actors Guild in the SAG-AFTRA merger. He cited both as meaningful influences toward his belief in being an actively engaged member of the MLBPA.”
I also offered a comment to an article that was overwhelmingly positive in how Giolito views himself and the team going into a season where everyone involved basically feels its World Series or bust starting in 2021: “Gotta love Lucas Giolito and his approach to his craft. Concentrating on the little things in order to reach team goals like winning the World Series. He is a gem, the consummate teammate and somebody the White Sox should tie up with a contract extension as soon as possible.”
yo dude can you post more often on articles even if your comment might of been long in the tooth. there was a lot of good points that seems absent on this site due to blind homerism. before everyone wants to blast me but take a step back and a lot of comments here are just dumb homerism myself included on some post
Yeah long in the tooth yet insightful. Post more but get to the point sooner is Brodies jist.
Good stuff Aaron. Thank you and you are the best. I heard on radio today- no one on Sox roster was alive the first year Tony began managing.
that may true but i’ve watched tlr mange every game for the cards and there were many moves he made where i’m throwing beer bottles at the tv. all that being said i think the ws made a good move getting tlr. he has always been able to play the sabermetrics game but also playing the game letting players play. i know playing by the numbers going to win you games but sports ain’t played in a simulation and sometimes you throw traditional /adv numbers out the window and let the guys have just play. i’ll get off my soap box on tlr all i ask look past his age and other discrepancies and recognize that he has a great bb mind
Aaron, I hate to break the news to you, but,,,,your man Giolito has no, nada, intention of ever signing an extension to stay with this strange collection of misfits. He’s gone to California, as soon as he can.
Wah, look at me. I want attention
I think the Sox will make an offer that they know won’t be accepted. Giolito makes a counter and the Sox sit on it for a bit before responding. They get more time to watch Giolito…more time to evaluate. Then they either get aggressive, offer a 6-7 year deal at 130-ish or let it go another year.
Personally……I don’t see it happening this year. The thought of offering any pitcher a deal that long at that much money will kill JR. It would go against every thing he’s stood for since buying the club.
You either pay him thru 35+, or he hits the market
I really like Giolito. I think he’s a competitor, and I like that he speaks his mind without being obnoxious about it. He stands up for his teammates too.
The Sox won’t sign him to a lengthy, expensive deal, and I’m glad. Way too risky when you have three years of control left. He has to decide what he’s worth and whether to bet on himself. If I’m him, I’d give up one FA year for some guaranteed money. With many pitchers pitching well into their 30’s, I don’t think he’d be sacrificing much in the scheme of things.
But with Bauer’s deal and his mediocre track record, who knows what these pitchers are thinking these days.
The risk of waiting one extra year to sign your one big career contract has to be outweighed by the premium you get for doing it.
Also don’t forget the elephant in the room. Who knows what the next few years look like in the new cba.
Suddenly, I’m far less confident in an extension getting done for Giolito. Maybe I’m reading way too much between the lines in what he said, but it doesn’t like to me he’s looking to sign anything “team-friendly.”
And for the 6 yr/$175MM suggestion, the Sox would be fools to bother with that extension, especially if you’re counting this season as one of the 6. That’s almost $30MM/yr if he were signing as a F/A. The Sox would lose far more in value with his next 3 arb years combined possibly reaching $30MM total.
I’m still hoping for an extension to get done, but I have a feeling the two sides will end up too far apart to make that a reality.
This time last year was probably the final chance to get him to bite on a team friendly deal.
But him not signing a deal could end up benefiting the Sox in another way. If some of our young pitchers make big strides this year and he keeps doing his thing, Giolito could become a really valuable trade chip, especially if you deal him with two years of affordable control left.
Both sides have good positions to work from. The Sox have several excellent prospects that look to be potential top of the rotation guys. Giolito is the only one at this point that has proven to be an effective top of the rotation starter. So if I’m the Sox I wait a little longer because Giolitos value to them is impacted by how well and how many of the other young pitchers develop .
Pitchers like Giolito don’t sign extensions during Arbitration years for obvious reasons. This isn’t some position player. Ace-type pitchers who are available are like unicorns—mythical creatures. If he were to re-sign before free agency, it’d have to be for a record amount of money (in White Sox history).
I don’t think the team is prepared to do that just yet (nor should they). The Sox know what they have in Giolito. They also know they must give him tome to establish his matket value before approaching him with a new contract. No one knows what the prevailing market will be, but my guess is 8/$250MM if he continues to put up current numbers.
I wouldn’t be so certain. Here are the AL bWAR pitching leaders from three years ago:
1. Kluber • CLE 7.9
2. Verlander • 2TM 6.5
3. Sale • BOS 6.0
4. Severino • NYY 5.4
5. Stroman • TOR 5.2
6. Carrasco • CLE 5.2
7. Santana • MIN 4.9
8. Cashner • TEX 4.7
9. Vargas • KCR 4.2
10. Keuchel • HOU 3.9
Obviously, they are all different in age and all, so there is no direct correlation, but look at how they’ve performed 3 years later. 4 have had career-altering surgery, one a life-threatening illness, and three I don’t know if they are even in BB anymore. Three years is an eternity in BB.
Doesn’t matter. #1 pitchers who put up 200+ innings/200+ strikeouts and an ERA below 4 almost never become available to the open market after arbitration. That alone sets his market value. He needs a few more seasons to establish consistency, and it’s $$$$. It’s gonna take a ton of money to resign him early is all I’m saying.
As someone who has always thought pitchers like Buehrle are undervalued, it’s important to note that Gio has never pitched 200 innings.
Obviously he has more time to establish his value as an Ace. Not gonna keep repeating what I’ve already said.
Let’s not confuse Giolito as an ace just yet..you have 3 Arb years left no need to talk extension until after 2022…
He has zero incentive to sign an extension.
He knows that he can still get paid at 30 should he continue his current trajectory, and he knows the White Sox will lowball him.
People also forget he’s from a rich family who was active in the Screen Actors Guild, so he’s politically not inclined to do it, and doesn’t need the money.
That’s why I doubt he signs any extension. He’s not remotely in the same situation as Jimenez or Robert.
Zero incentive?
A contract extension relieves Giolito of any concerns he might actually have of continuing his current trajectory including potentials health issues.
Who have the White Sox lowballed in recent years? They’ve been extremely successful in tying up their core players to extensions including two recent generous offers to ones who hadn’t even made their MLB debuts in Eloy Jimenez and Luis Robert. As for recent free agents SP’s, I would hardly call their offer to Zack Wheeler last offseason a lowball one. It was reportedly the top offer and refused based on a geographic preference. In fact, if you were to believe some pundits and many ‘experts’ in the comment sections, the White Sox have overpaid most of the FA’s they’ve signed including top catcher Yasmani Grandal last offseason and elite closer Liam Hendriks this winter.
It’s difficult to compare a young ace to stud position players. In fact, just lumping Jimenez and Robert together wasn’t a fair comp considering the latter had already received a $26M international signing bonus, similar to what Yoan Moncada had inked with the Red Sox a few years earlier. Yet the White Sox were still able to lock both Robert and Moncada up to contract extensions when the naysayers said it wouldn’t happen. As for Giolito, he received a nearly $3M signing bonus as a first round pick with the Nationals, a nice downpayment on a budding professional career but hardly Robert or Moncada money. The Giolito bonus would have been more akin to the Chris Sale deal yet the front office had success signing ‘Condor’. Why not Giolito as well?
I was remiss in not mentioning the most ‘egregious’ White Sox overpay when they jumped the market last offseason to re-sign FA Jose Abreu, a player who actually opted out of his original international contract in order to opt-into the arbitration process. Yes, those same, stupid, cheap and lowballing White Sox. lol
This. The team didn’t have to give Abreva the extension and were roasted by some for paying for past performance but the way the organization did right for its clubhouse leader has created a lot of good will and has extended the team’s ability to further extend its Cuban pipeline
Did you read nothing I wrote?
He’s not a Cuban Player. He’s a very pro-union, very progressive young man from a wealthy Hollywood family, who is entering a HUGE potential payday in arbitration alone.
Unless you come with 25 million per year over several year -at minimum- he probably won’t even pick up the call.
They tried the Friend of player route before with Machado. Where did that get them?
I supported signing Abreu, BTW. But comparing their circumstances is apples and oranges.
Because the White Sox only extend Cubans?
How did non-Cubans such as Mark Buehrle, John Danks, Paul Konerko, Chris Sale, Jose Quintana, Adam Eaton (1st stint) and Nate Jones along with current players like Tim Anderson, Aaron Bummer and Eloy Jimenez manage to pry extensions out of the White Sox? These are just some of the more recent White Sox extensions I could think of from my 65-year old memory.
You don’t have to remind me of the Lucas Giolito history with labor which would make him a tougher candidate but not one in which he has “zero incentive to sign” as you claimed. In fact, I had already posted the Giolito family connection to Hollywood unions and his own involvement with the MLBPA in an earlier comment here.
We are all familiar with the White Sox failed ‘friends and family’ fiasco in the Manny Machado free agent derby which turned out to be a blessing in disguise for the franchise. Some might say the White Sox are attempting that very thing again in regards to Giolito with the hiring of his former high school coach Ethan Katz as their new pitching coach. If that helps the team lock up Giolito that would be a bonus as would potential future free agent negotiations with two of his prep teammates, Cardinals ace Jack Flaherty and Braves TOR Max Fried. Even if none of that materializes I’d be willing to wager that Katz will have far more impact with the White Sox than what Yonder Alonso and Jon Jay provided to the team back in 2019.
i’m not so sure that missing out on machado, even at that ridiculous amount of money was a :”blessing in disguise.” do you think that the sox could have advanced further in the playoffs, last year if they had machado at third base and moncada in right field (instead of mazara)? how about this year…wouldn’t you rather have machado at third and moncada in right (instead of eaton)? and still, we’ve made no long range plan for a quality right fielder. maybe we’ll get lucky this year with eaton, but the ONLY long term worthy free agent after this season will be conforto, and based on our sorry history of winning bidding wars, there’s no way we’ll win on signing conforto. i definitely wouldn’t mind converting kris bryant to a full-time right fielder, but we’re not going to be the only team to think of doing that.
The Padre most White Sox fans regret not having is Fernando Tatis Jr., not Manny Machado. The White Sox should have prioritized free agent Bryce Harper that same offseason, not only because of of his high OPS left-handed bat and as their core RF but also for the marketing relevance he would have given the team locally and nationally.
Signing a much better team fit in Harper would have kept Yoan Moncada at 3B and Tim Anderson at SS where each profile best defensively. The White Sox already new Nick Madrigal was going to be their future 2B that offseason which precipitated the Moncada move to the hot corner. You may also recall that Machado was keen on signing as a SS that offseason and not at his longtime 3B position which Anderson took public exception to.
I’m not trying to be complicated here.
Giolito doesn’t care if he blows out his arm, because he’s more concerned with getting a deal that provides him his full market value than taking an extension from the White Sox.
For him, that is a political decision as much as it is financial. He is a pro-union progressive who has already spoken out about issues impacting less privileged players the league. Getting every dollar he is worth helps others, because it could help lead to increased salaries for future players.
And he can make that decision because his family is independently rich, and he’s already a millionaire himself. If he blows out his arm, he can bag the $4 million he’s earned this year, and buy a house next to where he grew up in Beverly Hills.
His extension would let him buy his family a nicer Mercedes wagon than they have right now. That’s it.
That’s why he doesn’t have the same incentive.
right you are about the ill-fated tatis for shields deal, but if we hadn’t done that, tatis would be our shortstop and anderson would be our right fielder…
PROBLEM SOLVED!
just for the record, i suggested to sox management this winter…that they trade robert to cleveland…even up… for lindor (on an extension), a deal that i think the indians would have taken. again…PROBLEM SOLVED…anderson in right, and a bonus of improved fielding at shortstop. i think the risk of looking like idiots if robert lives up to his hype plus the age difference kept the sox from pulling the trigger on that one. it all remains to be seen if the deal would have been smart. i like the idea of having a sure thing for 4 years (lindor) compared to having a “maybe” better thing from whom the tangible evidence (,233 batting average with a 35% strikeout rate…but more hyped than jesus christ) makes the trade seem so SMART.
You’re joking, right? Unless the Sox offer a long contract at $30MM per annum, Giolito has zero incentive to sign early at this point. Sure, has value could drop if he doesn’t perform well, but that’s a risk most starting pitchers are willing to take.
What it boils down to is that he’s not just looking out for himself. If he were, any objective person would say he’d be taking a huge risk by refusing any contract extension that guaranteed him tens of millions of dollars.
He is looking out for his fellow players. Noble, but he also has that luxury and a lot of the players that come from less affluent families don’t.
Exactly. He has obligations to his family as well current and future players. Fans really need to stop with these unrealistic expectations and understand the business side of baseball.
Tatis came from a Rich family and took out one of the worst loans you’ll ever hear of
Your inclusion of the word should in paragraph 2 is the counter Why
Every single pitcher SHOULD at least consider a nice lump guaranteed sum , especially when young and on RD 1 of the merry go round ….If they are lucky/healthy enough to go all Verlander Max late 30’s career they can shoot for the moon then with asking price …..Gimme 6/100 today which is fair to both Im inking it
Fernando Tatis Jr. was paid $340 million based off the equivalent of a single season of work. He completely raised the bar for signing extensions. That was a win for players.
Giolito could get $20 million in his last two seasons of arbitration, then sign a four-year deal for $100 million at minimum. He’d be selling himself short signing that.
We aren’t scared of Giolito or anybody else they run out there
True. First round of playoffs: Boo!
If the WSox are truly willing to extend Giolito now to a deal that’s not as club friendly and he is not agreeable to 6/100 or 7/125 (considering next 3 arb years around 30 total), so be it. No rush. They’ll have to respect his gamble, hope he’s great while here and develop others such as Cease/Stiever/Crochet and later on Kelley/Thompson, etc.
there are so many comments that are aptly discussed here, but what about a) how attached giolito feels to his teammates, b) how important is the ego trip of having a top pitcher’s contract…after all, it’s hard to spend 200 million dollars, even in a lifetime. c) how much of a gambler he is (health and early regression are serious risks). surely, the fact that giolito comes from a wealthy family makes it a little easier for him to gamble on himself. these are all unknowns that giolito’s close friends and family are probably in a much better position to answer than any of we bloggers. all things being equal, of course, anyone would like the most money. but money, being with a winning team, geography, teammate comradery, life comfort and security all have relative value. and, as these apply to lucas giolito…we just don’t know. it so happens that pitching looks like it will be a white sox strength for quite a while now…especially when compared to our less projectable offense. we have so many great young arms! so if giolito doesn’t sign an extension, we could possibly flip him for more needed offense some two and a half seasons from now…as has been mentioned earlier in this thread.
as usual, aaron, your well researched and insightful comments make participating in this blog fun and worthwhile.
I believe a good starting point for a potential Lucas Giolito extension would be a similar contract that the White Sox offered free agent Zack Wheeler last offseason. The ChiSox reportedly gave Wheeler a contract offer that was for 5 years and $120M+, exceeding the Phillies winning bid of $118M. Keep the opening extension offer simple at 5yrs./$125M with an AAV of $25M.
Giolito has already agreed to a $4.15M contract for 2021 in his first season as an arbitration eligible player. The extension could take affect beginning next year, buying out his final two arb years and 3 more in free agency. The White Sox and Giolito can work out the exact dollar figures for each season, whether it be more up-front money, an even amount or some backloading, The White Sox already have a lot of back-loaded extensions with their current young core group so perhaps it makes more sense from their standpoint in regards to current and future CBT to front load a Giolito contract with a potential 2021 signing bonus attached to his current $4.15M deal.
If AAV is an important consideration for Giolito (as an MLBPA rep) come his first potential FA season in 2024, his extension could reflect that with a $30M+ annual earning through 2026 and less up-front dollars. Again, this would just be a preliminary starting point and a fair one considering Giolito still has two more potential arbitration seasons after 2021.
Wheeler was a 30-year old free agent last winter with a QO attached to him. Giolito is four years younger at 26 as we post. With a 5-year extension beginning in 2022, Giolito would still be just 32 come the 2026/2027 offseason. If he’s still willing to forego all that guaranteed money and bet on himself, the two sides can be very creative with with player opt-outs after 2024 or by tacking on an even higher AAV mutual option following the 2026 season, perhaps approaching a $40M AAV. The White Sox were highly creative with their Liam Hendriks FA contract. They could be equally inventive with one for their ace pitcher.
Why would Giolito agree to leave money on the table? You understand this isn’t charity work, right? The reality here is Giolito has the potential to be a top 5 or top 10 pitcher in the game. At his age, that’s worth WAY more than what you’re suggesting (Wheeler? Seriously?). He’s got three years to increase his value, and he’s not a fool.
Without an extension Giolito has zero chance of earning a $25-$30M AAV until 2024. That’s three more seasons as an arbitration eligible three more chances to to prove he’s an ace, three more chances to fall back and three more chances to suffer another severe arm injury such as the torn UCL he had during his senior season in high school that needed a TJ procedure shortly after he was drafted by the Nationals. That injury cost him potential top-5 money in the 2012 MLB Draft when he fell to #16. Don’t tell me that can’t be in the back of his mind along with a likely max earning of $28M over the next 3 seasons through arbitration.
Aaron: Being that he’d likely get 2/26 for the last 2 arb seasons (’22/’23) after this season, do you believe JR will green light 3/99 for the first 3 FA years now to get to your 5/125? Not sure he would based on history.
Agree about Jerry. I don’t see him offering $100 MM+. Moncada got 5/$70 and is in the same service class as Giolito. Giolito is a year closer to free agency than Moncada was though. I can see 6/$99 MM for 2021-26 (4, 8, 12, 25, 25, 25 and offer an opt out after the 5th year). I also think Giolito is going to ride it out anyway. So, probably a moot point.
I’m looking at a 5-year commitment from the front office with similar dollars they had already offered 30-year old FA Zack Wheeler last winter who also came with a QO attached to him that would have cost the White Sox their second round draft pick who just happened to be Jared Kelley last June.
Maybe I’m in the minority here but I’d gamble on 5 years of 26-year old Lucas Giolito at $125M + Jared Kelly over 30-year old Zack Wheeler provided those are the dollars it takes to secure their ace with an extension.
Too little money, too little years. I know this is repetitive, but the market values a young ace more than you seem to.
White Sox fans might recall that Jared Kelley was a projected mid-first round selection by most draft pundits last year as was Garrett Crochet. Many boards had Kelley rated ahead of Crochet because some believed the former Texas prep star pitcher might honor his commitment to the University of Texas. The White Sox wound up selecting Crochet with their first round pick and then offered over-slot first round dollars to land Kelley with their second round selection. If the White Sox had signed Zack Wheeler last winter they couldn’t have landed both pitching prospects.
Some White Sox fans may counter this argument by saying that the addition of Wheeler might have provided the team with a better chance to finish higher in the standing last year and also advance further in the postseason. I say that would have been unlikely considering the season that the White Sox received from another free agent pitcher from that same class, Dallas Keuchel. The front office only signed Keuchel after Wheeler rejected their offer first. I can assure you the White Sox were not going to sign both last winter.
Besides coming cheaper, Keuchel also came without a QO after receiving one the previous offseason from the Astros. Unlike a potential Wheeler signing, the Keuchel deal then allowed the White Sox to keep their second round selection which wound up being another first round pick in Kelley as things played out. Time will tell if Kelley will be worthy of the dollars and pick but Crochet has already paid early dividends for the White Sox a mere three months after signing his draft bonus last June.
@ChiSoxCity
OK, convince me. Show me all the potential ace starting pitchers who still had three more years of arbitration eligibility who signed more lucrative extensions than what I’m suggesting the White Sox put on the table for Lucas Giolito right now? Perhaps you are placing too high a value on Giolito.
Many commenters have already suggested that my notion of offering the Zack Wheeler dollars was too high a price to pay for a pitcher with so many cheaper years of arbitration still available to him. It seems my idea is a very fair and generous one that falls in the middle of these two conflicting opinions. Of course, ultimately it only matters what Giolito and Jerry Reinsdorf think but I see this as solid compromise or at worse a good starting point for a chance at locking up their current 26-year old ace.
10-250 starting this year thank you. Its fair and not a cheap attempt. If not Giolito then who?
If I owned a team I’d be reluctant to give any pitcher a 10-year contract, let alone for $250M. Aside from Hall of Famers, who would be worthy of those years and dollars while also staying healthy for the duration? Even in that instance, there are not too many Nolan Ryan’s around who went through an entire career throwing gas and avoiding the injured list.
If I had to roll the dice on a long contract for any ace it would probably be for someone like Greg Maddux who had great mechanics, command and doesn’t have to rely on power stuff at the backend of a long contract. Mark Buehrle would be a former White Sox SP who I might have considered for a decade long contract but not at that AAV. The White Sox never considered such an offer to Buehrle who was also a clear fan favorite with added marketing appeal. As much as we all like Lucas Giolito, I’d bet a 10-year contract would be a non-starter for the White Sox front office and I wouldn’t blame them.
It will be interesting to see how effective Yankee ace Gerrit Cole will be over his entire 9 yrs/$324M FA contract that will take him through his age 37 season in 2028. Good luck to him and the Yankees but I would never have made that type of an investment as an MLB owner. A position player at a young age like Fernando Tatis Jr. is an entirely different matter and one I would endorse as a fan or owner. Same goes for Mike Trout and many others but it would need to be done at an earlier age. Nobody wants to grant such a FA contract or extension to an older player and wind up with an albatross at the backend like Albert Pujols or Miguel Cabrera.
Btw: The Zack Wheeler contract I suggested for a Giolito extension would meet your 10yrs/$250M suggestion half-way in length and dollars. I’d be far more confident in Giolito earning a $25M AAV salary through age 31 than 36. I believe that AAV is more than fair considering 2-3 years of it would cover his arb eligible ones depending if I began the extension this season or next. It would also allow Giolito to enter the FA market at a reasonable age of 30 or 31. If he produced like an ace with good health an no apparent loss of stuff I would then be more than happy to consider another 5-year contract at that point. Why would I as an owner gamble on a 10-year deal now?
If Giolito is confident enough to bet on his own production and health for the next three years and reject my 5-year $25M AAV guaranteed offer before he can attain free agency in 2024 I would say good luck to him and hope we could both benefit with his great pitching and the team’s march toward a championship or three in the meantime.
Good stuff, fair enough. My thinking is he is 26 now and young enough to get the ten years and I think the longer we wait to extend him the more it will cost. Especially if he continues to improve and dominate as I’m counting on. Every one is right about the possible break downs and injury. Also your 5-125 if fair too but I fear we wouldn’t or couldn’t meet his asking price the next 5 years. Providing he is healthy and dominating.
how much more fun it is when we discuss the baseball playing aspect of baseball…as opposed to the business side of baseball!!