TODAY: Bob Nightengale of USA Today provides the details on Dobnak’s extension. He’ll make $700K this season, $800K in 2022, $1.5MM in 2023, $2.25MM in 2024, and $3MM in 2025, his final year of initial team control. The three team options will be worth $6MM in 2026, $7MM in 2027, and $8.5MM in 2028 with buyouts of $1MM for 2026 and just $100K for both 2027 and 2028.
MARCH 29: The Minnesota Twins are in agreement with right-hander Randy Dobnak on a five-year, $9.25MM extension, per Jeff Passan of ESPN (via Twitter). The deal includes three club option years with escalators that can bring the total amount up to $29.75MM. The first option year in 2026 will include a $1MM buyout, per MLB.com’s Do-Hyoung Park (via Twitter). That leaves $8.25MM to be spread out among the five seasons prior. For each of the three option years, escalators can add up to $1.8MM per season based on innings pitched thresholds. Dobnak is a client of Gaeta Sports Management.
This definitely rates as somewhat of a surprise, given that Dobnak, 26, will begin the year in the bullpen after spending all of last season in the rotation. While starting the year in a piggyback role might seem like a demotion, the Twins clearly feel compelled enough by Dobnak’s performance to guarantee his role in the organization for years to come. Further, with just 1.047 days of service time, he wasn’t likely to become arbitration-eligible until 2023.
The Twins, meanwhile, get three additional seasons of optional team control at what are likely to be reasonable rates. Both sides benefit from the financial certainty, though the escalators still provide Dobnak with a path to increasing his future earnings. Importantly, this is likely to be Dobnak’s primary source of career earnings: If the Twins choose to buy out the option years, it’s not likely to lead to a higher salary elsewhere, and if the Twins don’t buyout any of the option years, Dobnak will reach free agency for the first time prior to his age-34 season. Still, given his non-traditional path to professional baseball, it’s certainly understandable why a deal like this would appeal to Dobnak.
His rise, after all, certainly qualifies as one of the less likely origin stories in recent season. The Twins signed Dobnak with a mere $500 signing bonus in July 2017 after scouting him exclusively over YouTube, writes the Athletic’s Dan Hayes. He supplemented his income by driving for Uber and excelled through the Twins’ system despite overwhelming velocity or a knock-out put-away pitch. For a 26-year-old who signed out of independent ball, this deal represents life-changing money.
On the hill, suffice it so say that Dobnak has repeatedly overcome his underdog status to provide valuable innings for Minnesota. He was a genuine revelation in making his debut during the 2019 season, posting a 1.59 ERA/3.92 SIERA in five starts and four relief appearances covering 28 1/3 innings. Dobnak’s sophomore season had more ups-and-downs, but he still managed a 4.05 ERA/4.56 SIERA in 10 starts covering 46 2/3 innings. In 75 total career innings, Dobnak has achieved an excellent 58.8 percent groundball rate with a similarly-encouraging 5.7 percent walk rate and less-than-thrilling 15.7 percent strikeout rate.
He certainly doesn’t fit the mold of today’s hurler. His fastball lands in the 31st percentile for velocity and 5th percentile for spin rate. He is in the 13th percentile for whiff rate and fourth percentile by strikeout rate. Nevertheless, he has been better than average at avoiding barrels and coaxing below-average exit velocity while burning worms and avoiding free passes.
The recipe has worked for Dobnak thus far and earned him a long-term home in Minnesota. His four-seam fastball/sinker averaged just 91.4 mph, but strong arm-side run has proved it particularly effective against righties. He re-worked his slider and increased its usage in 2020 to promising results. While he will begin the season in the bullpen, the Twins rotation features a number of veterans with a history of injuries. It’s highly unlikely that the Twins won’t need to access their depth behind Kenta Maeda, Jose Berrios, Michael Pineda, J.A. Happ, and the oft-injured Matt Shoemaker. Chances are the Twins’ mustachioed, bespectacled, newly-wealthy right-hander will be called on for bulk innings in 2021 and beyond.
Didn’t see this coming at all
Very odd/surprising decision by Minnesota management. Hope it works out well for them
He has bet on himself with those incentives etc
That’s a little bizarre
Another contact from baseball owners based on 2021 dollars when they – and the players agents – know that with all the money the government is printing, the US Dollar will depreciate at least 20% a year over h life of that contract.
Dobnak must have been desperate to lock some money in.
*citation needed*
Lol, stop complaining and enjoy your stimulus check. Inflation has averaged 1.87% over the past decade and there is no indication that this will change.
You don’t really believe the government numbers do you riverrat?
Been in a grocery store lately?
I have! Prices seems to have been pretty stable although I hear coffee beans might get more expensive because of the Sues Canal thing…
Surely some guy’s impression of grocery store prices is a better measure of inflation than official numbers.
I hear 5G radio waves are being sent directly to our brains from QAnon to make us not realize Dobnak’s mustache is taped on!!!
Dude gas is up 77 cents a gallon since sleepy Joe took office
This has been ECON 101: Macroeconomics brought to you by an anonymous baseball blog commenter.
Lol, stop complaining and enjoy your stimulus check. Inflation has averaged 1.87% over the past decade and there is no indication that this will change.
@ riverrat1211 hours ago;
Now I’m LOL’ing.
So items such as homes and cars have averaged a price of an additional “1.87% over the past decade”.
Sure.
As long as you accept a house, cars, etc. that are 50% smaller with less features.
And no, our costs for groceries, medical care and other necessities hardly just rose just “1.87% over the past decade”. But I will say this – the quality of the products have certainly gone down.
Do you live in a McMansion and drive an Excursion?
Lol, all the money the government is printing? What year do you think it is?
The U.S. government has been printing money and has run a deficit the entire 21st century under both parties. Started w Bush tax cuts and his deficit-funded wars. As long as there’s demand for U.S. dollars we’re chilling.
Samuel –
I think Dobnak will be just fine. I’m also desperate to lock in up to $25 mil
Don’t believe the US inflation numbers. Housing is up dramatically. Prices of building materials have tripled (particularly lumber), and gas prices are up like 30%.
Yet the government says there is no inflation.
Dobnak was smart. Worst case he makes $9 million over the life of the contract, best case he makes almost $30 million. Either way not bad for guy who was pitching in indy ball a couple of years ago
Exactly. He’s 26 and has secured himself for life if he’s smart with his money. Live like you’re still making league min. and invest the difference. And he still has a shot at a big payday in free agency.
Very good deal for the Twins. They essentially buy out all of RD’s arbitration years (assuming the extension begins this year) for chump change. If it doesn’t begin until next year, they buy out the first year of Free Agency also for the same paltry sum. And ya, I don’t pay too much attention to options. Add in the forthcoming inflation, and it’s a real good deal for Minny.
Look, the guy probably realizes he was bagging groceries not-too-long ago. 9.5 M is a LOT of money for Randy, since I’m sure he’s self-aware enough to realize he isn’t Jake deGrom.
Smart move on both sides; but most of the upside is in the team’s favor.
Wait, he isn’t Jacob deGrom?
What a strange choice of a player to “lock up” for years, still… seems like a fair deal.
You have a lot to say Hubert
while Dobnak is probanly starting in the pen its likely he’s 1st up to fill any rotation spot that opens and likely has the inside track on a 2022 rotation spot. guy was killing it again in spring. huge deal for MIN.
He wants to secure his future as a 26 year old. Who can blame him. He’s no ace and has now made more money in his life long journey of playing a sport than you and I will combined.
This, and good for him
He is in the 13th percentile for whiff rate and fourth percentile by strikeout rate.
I’m confused.
Strikeouts arnt everything, he still manages a decent FIP. Not a bad deal to lock up a 4 or 5 Starter for over half a decade.
He’s better than average at keeping the ball on the ground and in the park, he’s supposedly missing more bats this spring with a change in pitch repertoire, and it’s really not a lot of guaranteed money.
I see his appeal as a back of the rotation guy. Eats innings, doesn’t throw crazy heat so there’s less chance of injury, doesn’t walk people. I’ve always thought these types were way underrated.
Although in terms of risk, there really isn’t any for the Twins here.
Just as an un-wise decision as letting Eddie Rosario walk away . Dobnak will never earn this contract.
Rosario fell down on the way out the door and nobody but Cleveland wanted to pick him up. Watch his walk rate this summer, you’ll see. Watch those swings at balls over his head, you’ll see. Watch the boneheaded base running gaffes, you’ll see. Watch the hotdogging in the outfield, you’ll see.
That act gets old tho… at the end of the Day Rosie
Was a ~ .275 / .323 / . 470
Type of hitter with an absolute cannon in Left Field
If some team wasn’t willing to give up a C+ prospect or 2 for him
Something is drastically wrong with him. Physically or his character
Over a 550 AB season Rosie easily will hitt 25 bombs; could be almost 35
@John Hammer
I haven’t gotten to see Rosario play that much, is his base running and defense really that bad?
Yes. He only seemed to do better at defense when Buxton was in CF and even then he was probably only average. Cannon for an arm which is great sometimes but he also overthrows a lot.
And I can’t think of one good base running example for him. There are plenty of bad ones though.
OlC2021 –
Rosario was pretty much average at best at everything aside from hitting home runs. The Twins are in no need for such a player…they hit PLENTY of HR’s without him. He’s a butcher in the OF and can’t get on base. They would’ve been better off keeping Cron. There’s a reason he had to wait so long in the offseason to get a one-year deal with Cleveland
10 million over 5? Where’s the risk
@miggy4prez
Exactly, he seems like the type of pitcher that has a high floor but low ceiling. Your locking up a back of the rotation guy for dirt cheap.
This is why mlbtraderumors needs a dislike button.
Twins will regret this…ridiculous signing
yes they will really be feeling 2 million a year over 5 years. lol.
Yeah, his contract be a Mauer-like albatross around the team’s neck.
Why and how!?! lol … not only is the contract probably a bargain for a decent pitcher for the next 5 years… but they literally could have given this contract to me and not really have it effect their payroll enough to warrant significant regret. Like it’s only $2M/year MAX… even if he never throws another pitch in the majors… its just not enough $ to create much regret, and certainly not enough to qualify as a ridiculous signing…
This is a win-win. If he’s not great, the contract is almost nothing. If he is great, the contract is almost nothing.
TWINS SCREWED THIS KID! HIS AGENT SHOULD BE FIRED! MLBPA has to be LIVID!
Why is he screwed? He’s not a high ceiling prospect. As long as he manages to be in the Twins rotation the last 3 years he’ll make $30 mill. If he’s that productive at 31 his next contract will be worth at least that much. He’s guaranteed almost $9 mill no matter what happens the next 5 years.
This is when the “best for my family” line can actually mean something.
Good for him. Dude was driving a taxi for a living like 3 yrs ago.
See Freddy Peralta for a comparable deal.
This is a win/win for each side. Neither side has anything to lose, basically. They say that every single WAR (win above replacement) is worth 8 million dollars; Dobnak has already provided one full WAR on the MLB minimum of a few hundred thousand dollars. And is it really difficult to imagine Dobnik cobbling together another 1.3 of WAR over 5 years (which would more than reimburse the Twins for this contract given)? From Dobnik’s point of view, he has a guaranteed life changing contract that will put him in the highest 1 percent of wage earners in the U.S. Did he give up some possible positive arb. rulings that would far exceed the 9.5 million dollar guarantee? Well, yes, but the contract as mentioned above has escalators that could bring the deal to almost 30 million dollars for the guy. So he is betting to an extent on himself. He and his agent would have been fools to have turned this deal down.
I think the $8 million per WAR for comparison purposes to salary should just be applied to those eligible for free agency after 6 years of MLB service.
I completely agree. The only ones who throw around those numbers are analysts who work for big market teams or the players’ association. You start spouting that kind of analysis in Tampa, Cleveland, or Oakland and you’ll be out on your ass in a heartbeat.
While I completely agree with your statement, I got from the article that Dobnak would earn more than $ 20m through option years, but not by escalators (which are lower). Anyway, he can now chase the one Uber guest who gave him only four stars being financially settled for life. When an injury does always threaten your further career, a guy like Dobnak simply has to sign such a contract and I for one am happy for him.
Gruß,
BSHH
Unexpected. The downside for the Twins is pretty minimal and the upside is very good. For Dobnak, at minimum he locks in about $9M, but he also locked out any chance of cashing in on upside, or even cashing in by being mediocre, as he can’t be a free agent until his age-34 season. If he’s even vaguely decent he’ll likely regret the deal, but it also beats driving an Uber.
That mustache alone is worth 8MM in marketing, promotions, etc. Minny won big time.
Good for Randy
Interesting , Anyways If Randy Dobnak goes on to carve out a nice little career (somewhat likely and just as doubtful too)
But if he does , I totally see a future movie …featuring a dude as a fu Man Chu featuring
Tom hardy , or bobs burgers guy … playing as a pot smoking , Uber driving Male jiggello who got the dream rolling from a 500 dollar signing bonus …tough times when ur best paying Uber hours are often the midnight weekend nights
Holy crap
Color me extremely surprised… This is one of the weirdest extensions I’ve seen in a long time. I know this gives him stability, but I would’ve expected at least 5 mil AAV.
No other team was willing to give Dob a shot why not reward the organization with a team and player friendly pact with the only org. That saw the small light within you
Lets be honest here, that stache carried the contract
Great news for the white sox.. they hit .306 with a 390 obp in 20′.. they crushed him in 2019 too.