The Cubs have already traded Joc Pederson to the Braves and are expected to continue selling veteran players in the two weeks leading up to the deadline, but they’ll first take one last effort at hammering out contract extensions with shortstop Javier Baez and first baseman Anthony Rizzo, reports MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter).
Both Rizzo and Baez have been viewed as extension candidates with the Cubs for the past several years, but neither has worked out a deal to remain in Chicago beyond the 2021 campaign. Rizzo is playing out the second of two option seasons that were included on his original seven-year, $41MM contract with the club.
Chicago unsurprisingly picked up both of those club options, and Rizzo will end up earning a combined $75MM over a nine-year term. The Cubs reportedly offered Rizzo a five-year, $70MM contract extension back in Spring Training — about $60MM less than the Cardinals guaranteed Paul Goldschmidt for the same portion of his career.
As for Baez, he’s playing out his final arbitration year and earning $11.6MM before reaching free agency. The two parties were reported to be progressing in talks on a long-term deal in spring 2020 before the season was shut down.
Neither Rizzo nor Baez is playing at peak levels in 2021, although both have rebounded somewhat from a down year in 2020. Rizzo posted a .222/.342/.412 batting line in 243 plate appearances last year but is up to .247/.342/.429 so far in 2021. His .182 ISO (slugging minus batting average) is his lowest mark since 2012, as is his 9.7 percent walk rate. Rizzo’s production this season is still comfortably above the league average, by measure of wRC+ (111), but it’s a far cry from his 2014-19 levels (.284/.388/.513, 141 wRC+). He’ll turn 32 next month, however, which surely impacts the team’s comfort level both in terms of contract length and annual value.
For Baez, the 2020 season was nightmarish. He batted just .203/.238/.360 with career-worst walk (3.0) and strikeout (31.9) percentages as his power dipped to its lowest level since 2016. This year, he’s batting .238/.284/.493 with 21 home runs — some of the best power output of his career. However, Baez’s long-troubling strikeout issues have ballooned to new heights in 2021, as he’s fanned in 36.6 percent of his plate appearances. He remains an excellent defender and won’t turn 29 until the offseason, so there are still several years of Baez’s physical prime left.
Both players are somewhat difficult to value from an extension standpoint at the moment. Rizzo hasn’t bounced all the way back from last year’s downturn in production, and any new contract would be buying out his mid-30s. Baez is younger and enjoying a larger bounceback effort, but his glaring swing-and-miss tendencies and bottom-of-the-scale OBP are difficult to overlook.
The Cubs have tried at various points to lock up both players, and it seems it’ll be even more difficult now to hammer out terms in a two-week window leading up to the trade deadline — particularly when the front office is also dedicating so much time to fielding trade interest in other players on the roster. That’s not to say an extension for either player is out of the question, but the timing isn’t exactly working in their favor. The absence of an extension doesn’t make a trade a foregone conclusion, however; either player would be a candidate for a qualifying offer, which would give the Cubs an opportunity to retain them on a high-priced one-year deal or at least gain a compensatory draft pick should they sign elsewhere.
As notable in Heyman’s report on the likelihood of extension talks with Baez and Rizzo is that it appears no such talks are being planned with star third baseman/outfielder Kris Bryant. The former NL Rookie of the Year and NL MVP is enjoying a more substantial rebound season than either of his two aforementioned teammates and figures to enter the offseason as one of the top free agents on the open market. He’ll draw interest from a wide number of contenders as they look to bolster their lineup over the next 14 days, and the absence of any last-ditch extension talks would seem to indicate an acknowledgement of that ship having sailed.
Bryant, Craig Kimbrel, Zach Davies, and Andrew Chafin are among the likeliest Cubs to change hands in the coming days, and they’ll surely receive interest in veterans Willson Contreras and Kyle Hendricks as well. Contreras, however, is controlled through 2022 via arbitration. Hendricks is signed affordably through the 2023 campaign with an option for 2024. Given that level of remaining club control, there’s less urgency to make a deal involving either player, though that won’t stop other teams from trying to pry them loose.
Makes no sense they need to blow it up before it’s to late
It’s not gonna ve a full rebuild though. Trading everyone is dumb.
Rizzo is done negotiating though. They lowballed him during spring training. The numbers for baez are unknown other than him turning down 200mil but not that 200mol would be great for him. He won’t get that in the open market.
@Billy, disagree. Anyone they trade can be signed back this offseason. Assuming they’re punting on this season, it makes little sense they would let assets walk away for just a QO pick or nothing at all. The only downside of a trade is they lose the chance to retain these players on QO’s. I don’t think Baez gets one and I don’t think Rizzo accepts. KB certainly wouldn’t accept. So they’d get a couple of picks and that’s about it. Certainly, they can find better offers than that.
The cubs already know their lines on these guys. They probably won’t match any offer. Therefore they need to weigh a trade return vs a QO rejection return.
I like the idea a lot with the weight of a QO and trade and all that. The only issue is if you trade them and they go off (unpredictable I’m aware) you risk paying more. Don’t get me wrong I’m in for selling though.
@hyraxwithaflamethrower guarantee Baez gets a QO if not traded
@tstats You’re going to pay them more if you don’t trade them and they go off down the stretch bub.
Tst, why worry if they’re gonna cost more in the offseason? You’re not planning to sign that contract now, you’re not gonna win now. Do you get multiple AA or Aaa pieces to help in 1-2 years, or 3 picks to help in 5-7 years?
If they’re really worried about offseason cost, then the Cubs probably need to make a bigger effort to really extend these guys..
How exactly is $70 mil over 5 years a lowball offer for someone soon to be 32 and coming off a season in which they batted just .203/.238/.360 with career-worst walk (3.0) and strikeout (31.9) percentages and saw their power dipped to its lowest level since 2016?
You’re mixing up Baez’s stats and Rizzo’s offer.
Don’t let facts get in the way of a good argument! Keep ranting @whynot
Yes I did, mix them up. Still his recent numbers don’t back the assertion that $70 mil over 5 years is a lowball offer
Even with swapped stats, you’re absolutely right. Low ball? Rizzo needs to have his head checked. Dude is average.
It may have been a low-ball offer at the time but now seems perfectly reasonable.
Is that really a low ball offer? Look at his production this year. He’s been worth .7 fWAR and with his back issues and age, I don’t have a lot of faith in him ever getting back to his 2014-2019 self.
Rizzo will get 85-100 m easy on the market. He doesn’t deserve Goldy’s new deal but he’s Hardly half the player
Yes they absolutely lowballed him
Teams saw how that Hosmer contract is working out for Padres
That’s fine Wheeler, but Hosmer got 144M. I think Rizzo will get 45-60M less..
No one in their right mind was giving that Hosmer deal back when it happened…just SD.
Whos is giving him “85-100m easy”?
@BillyBaggins How is trading everyone dumb? The alternative is to lose them for draft picks.
@lolmuttsaregarbage778654 care to elaborate?
Let’s talk about screen names
Baez will not get that money in the open market, fact is Simien of the Blue Jays is a better offensive player than Baez and deserving of a better contract.
Rizzo is fine to extend if he’s not expecting Goldy numbers, something in between that valuation and the Cubs’ previous offer. But with how stacked their farm is with MI, it’s time to let Baez walk
Rizzo’s offensive production does not warrant anything close to Goldschmidt. Goldy has provided top tier offense each year, Rizzo on the other hand has had a poor 2020 and 2021. CJ Cron is a better buy than Rizzo.
I don’t get it at all. If there’s one player you want to extend, to me, that’s Kris Bryant. I get that he probably wants to test the market but if you’re gonna put effort in somewhere, I think you should start there. Honestly I would probably trade everybody.
This close to free agency, it’s not worth the effort. The only way you get him to stay is by offering a contract that you’re going to regret.
Bryant has Boras as his agent. Cubs won’t even waste their time trying to extend him.
That’s why they never offered him an extension. As soon the “manipulation” of service time was filed he made his mind up. Plus more than 90% of Scott Boras’ clients change teams. Strasburg was a rare occasion.
I couldn’t agree more, Ruckus.. To me, Bryant is the guy showing major signs of finding his groove again. I do think Rizzo, with gold glove defense and leadership intangibles (that some people on here seem to discount), is worth keeping. Baez,on the other hand, continues to regress. It’s frustrating to watch a guy like him with a world of talent, stubbornly refuse to be more selective at the dish. No reason to think that’s gonna change while with the Cubs. Let him go.
I agree on Baez, he’s frustrated me for a long time with his free swinging. But Rizzo, if you think he’s a leader, take a look at where the team is headed. He’s way past his prime, time to move on !
Lol how is 31 “way past his prime”? Mike Trout wi be 30 this year. Rizzo is 2 years and a day older. By your logic Mike Trout will be past this prime this time next year. That’s ridiculous. Rizzo is in his prime. Maybe when he’s 33 going on 34 he’ll be “way past his prime”
Rizzo has started to decline and Trout has not! Never give a long term contract to someone in decline!
Rizzo has a bad back. That’s not going to get any better as he ages. It will almost certainly get worse.
Ruck, the only way Bryant signs a deal is if they pay him market value. He’s not signing for 120M. He’s gonna cost 200M+ now
The Cubs are clearly in bargain mode, not mega contract mode
I’d rather give Bryant $200M than Rizzo and Baez a combined $200M. Baez lack of discipline at the dish is absolutely maddening. He’s OBP is way under .300. That’s unacceptable. I would only extend Baez on a shorter term deal. No way would I give Rizzo 5 and Baez 7-8. Rizzo is my favorite player too. These guys want too much money. I can’t blame them though. The Ricketts family are tight wads.
All Bora$’ superstar clients hit free agency.
Agree. Why spend $$$ to keep a team together with no pitching?!! Dumb. Why would the Cubs adopt the Angels model?
…one does not preclude the other whiff….
Good teams have good offenses and good pitching
If Rizzo gets them a package they like they should move him. He is 31 History has shown if you tie up a 30+ to a 5+ year contract you end up overpaying for the back half of the deal because production goes over a cliff.
You are correct: Just ask the Tigers
Nothing is comparative to Miggy. That was a dying owner wanting to know his star doenst leave. Money be dammed
Rizzo isn’t that guy and doesn’t deserve that comp
I am torn which way this organization should go, as a Chicago fan, living through the post Jordan era Bulls was brutal. If Baez, Bryant and Rizzo are gone this year, next year Contreras will follow. I guess they just going back to sucking.
Contreras should be extended. No team will give up 2 top 10 prospects plus 2 mid level players. Hopefully at least one being ML ready.
With literally, no one of starting caliber behind Contreras, they can’t trade him. Not without a catcher coming back. Unless they’re blown away by an offer, why do that?
@rondon…
“With literally, no one of starting caliber behind Contreras, they can’t trade him.”
Well sure they can. If they aren’t contending what does it matter who the catcher is? He’ll be gone in 2 years anyway.
If only they could acquire another catcher in a separate trade just to take offer….
@BeforeMcCourt they don’t have to. One of their top prospects Miguel Amaya is a catcher.
Even if the top prospect isn’t ready, that doesn’t mean you can’t trade your best trade chip. That’s my point
Stopgaps happen on every team
I don’t think Hoyer wants a complete rebuild. Losing Contreras would weaken the pitching staff. And there’s a number of kids that have or will be brought up in the second half that would be adversely affected by a rookie or journeyman catcher.
As a reds fan, please pay and extend these guys! They deserve it. Future is really bright with these guys!
Is that…is that a Reds fan? Y’all have been rather quiet for, what, thirty years now? Cubs will win another world series before the reds…
Hahaha. It took u 110 yrs or something. Castillo, gray, mahle, hunter Greene, Lodolo, Sims, antone. They call that pitching. I get it. U know nothing about that.
India, winker, senzel, barrero, Stephenson. They call thay quality youth.
Get some and come back. Reds have been toying with cubs, cards and crew all year head to head. Haven’t even gotten healthy yet.
By far, the brightest future in the nlc.
Senzel is just youth, not quality youth
Reds going to be very good for the next 5 years and they will win the division this year
They won’t win the division, the Brewers are just too much better unless their pitching absolutely falls apart
Ack it is waaaaaaay too early in the day to be this drunk. Make sure you call a cab or an Uber. Remember to mix in a water too. You’ll thank me later.
Too much better…. u going to stick with that? And we have taken 6 out of last 7 in milw. We are better than the teams in our division. Is what it is.
We…
Reds just sweep them last week
Lmao are you 12? Bragging about a bunch of players who haven’t even had a winning season. Half those pitchers aren’t good or haven’t played a full season. And you conveniently left off career 25 ERA Amir Garrett. Yeah you’ve got some young talent, but hell you ought to after how long y’all have been bad. I’m not gonna sit here and do the whole 2016 thing but if you wanna see pitching and young talent go look at that staff and that young talent and then gain a sense of perspective instead of bragging about a bunch of unprovens and mediocres.
Offensively the Reds are clearly better, however from a pitching perspective they have issues. The Reds have a nice nucleus and should be contenders provided they don’t balk on signing their players.
Ack1022 –
Just remember that the Cubs felt the exact same way about 3 years ago. No reason to be such a cocky smart a** before you accomplish one damn thing. At least the Cubs got one ring out of it. The Reds have done NOTHING. Potential just means it hasn’t been done yet, and that’s all you have
I actually agree as well,give them a quality ss and one more arm and there going deep in the playoffs.
31 after this year. 31 year since Paul O’Neil punted the ball to the cutoff man.
Reds will likely win NL Central this year and look sneaky good, this is coming from a cubs fan., I kind of hope they do well, big Joey Votto fan.
Red wine for sure…probably breakfast, lunch, and dinner.
Why would the Cubs try to lock down those two? They won a world series with their core 5 years ago. Its over.
Because they should keep a veteran or two who know how to win in the playoffs. That helps a team wanting to compete with young players in the next couple years, which is what the Cubs will only have once they trade away the rest.
See if you don’t go to the playoffs that’s pointless, if you want a vet bat don’t go Baez for sure because he has nothing to offer to young players other than K tips and some baserunning/fielding magic only he can do. Rizzo fine but there are other cheaper veteran 1B options. For example Max Muncy I think is FA (feel free to fact check)
Muncy is a good thought. But he signed a 3 year deal with the Dodgers, tied up until 2024 season.
I was just thinking of how much teams tend to pay to get a veteran presence and the Cubs already have one.
Know how to win the playoffs? Is it a different game or something? Are there good players that don’t “know how to win” in the playoffs? Never mind, I don’t even wanna hear it.
Yes, it is VERY MUCH a different game
It’s not. You’re confusing figurative with actual. Are the rules different? Does talent suddenly change? It’s literally the same game.
yes, talent suddenly changes, under high pressure – see post season Bagwell & Biggio for one way, and Pete Rose and a few others the other way
Anecdotal evidence. You are cherry picking to make point that no expert would ever entertain. Old school nonsense backed up by cherry-picked anecdotes. Understand that in statistics, cherry-picking and a failure to account for randomness can lead to nonsense.
They aren’t anecdotes, they are ballplayers, winners and losers in post-season, based on MANY MANY years of post-season appearances.
Some players RISE to pressure, some sink before it. NO ONE with an ounce of common sense in baseball would dispute that.
They are anecdotes and even, “MANY MANY” years of post season appearances still make up a small sample size. I wouldn’t be surprised if some players are better at handling the pressure than others, but I don’t think that’s necessarily reflected perfectly by looking at post season performance.
Nuanced: you seem to not know what an anecdote is. Anecdotal evidence is a type of cherry-picking. When there exists thousands and thousands of data points, choosing a small sample that fit your narrative is providing anecdotal evidence and useless as scientific evidence. Hard to have a conversation with someone who doesn’t use actual facts or evidence. Again studies have actually been done.
Veteran leadership , such a tired and mindless cliche.
right – in all the fields of human group endeavor, that only DOESN’T apply in baseball, uh huh.
120 years of ballplayer testimony begs to differ with you
120 years old baseball have been studied. The amount of clutch and non-clutch players are within the expected range once you account for randomness. In other words, actual studies show that the effect of “clutch” is minimal at best and doesn’t show up statistically. The idea of clutch has never had any actual evidence behind it. “120 years of baseball testimony” isn’t a valid argument. What testimony? What actual data or facts?
“120 years old baseball have been studied. The amount of clutch and non-clutch players are within the expected range once you account for randomness. In other words, actual studies show that the effect of “clutch” is minimal at best and doesn’t show up statistically. The idea of clutch has never had any actual evidence behind it. “120 years of baseball testimony” isn’t a valid argument. What testimony? What actual data or facts?”
Here is why analytics is as much of a religion as a science.
Instead of admitting that there are limitations to what can be measured, quantified and analyzed, they simply claim that if they can’t measure, quantify and analyze something…then it doesn’t exist.
The idea that “clutch” doesn’t exist requires one to absolutely ignore psychology and human nature and the reality that different people respond differently to pressure and adversity.
Instead of believing in old school, made up phantoms understand that if the evidence isn’t there, neither is the theory. That’s not analytics, that’s science. Baseball is a game of stats. Please provide actual evidence that clutch exists. No one has done this yet. It’s all old school assumptions backed up by supposition.
Evidence? “I watch games” isn’t evidence. A middle school science student knows that.
you have chosen a very very poor hill on which to die here cosmo
muh science
Science is a poor hill? I’m not dying I’m making a case, you are trying to back up assumptions with supposition. Again, the studies have already been done. Scientific method is a useful thing.
@Cmurphy as tstats said, if you don’t make the playoffs keeping a veteran or two who knows how to win the playoffs is pointless. And trading them doesn’t mean they can’t sign them in the offseason anyway.
Ok but statistically how many guys have been traded at the deadline and returned the following season? It’s happened but it’s extremely rare. That being said I’d trade them both as well
Hilarious how non-Cubs fans just can’t stand it if Cubs aren’t going to trade everyone lol! Trade Hendricks, Contreras, on and on. I guess they’re really sick of Cubs being good!
Nope. Just the rentals.
The Cubs are good..?
I think they extend Baez and not Rizzo
They should consider the impact to the city as well. Rizzo had done a tremendous amount of charity with his foundation in Chicago. It brings a lot of good press to the Cubs. They took a hit with losing Schwarber and Lester with all their work. While I like Baez for his passion for the game, Rizzo is a leader.
that’s not at all a good business move at all
The Ricketts have put a lot of money into the image of the Cubs. They’re crying poor because they’re leveraged to the hilt on real estate development in Wrigleyville. They need the Cubs to look good, not play good.
I bet residents around wrigleyville and the 77 neighborhoods absolutely hate that monstrosity hotel/condos that were not needed. Probably 1000$ a night
They proved before that they can field a AAA team in a tank and Wrigley Field is STILL the world’s largest frat party. The fact they theyd have even TRIED to compete is like a grand public service. I’ve never seen fewer baseball fans in and around a tourist trap. Not what it once was for sure.
Wrigley Field is not a tourist trap, and it’s not the world’s largest frat party unless you sit in the bleachers. Go sit in the stands’ cheap seats like I have for 25 years+. If you get rowdy you’ll be told to shut up and drink your overpriced beer. You’ll find fans there who pay attention to the game. Although ticket prices are squeezing people out, I’ve to find deals on StubHub even with its fees.
If you want to play a ‘back in my day’ game, I’m not going there because time changes everything.
If you want to complain about the Ricketts and how they chopped up the park with the new private clubs, made a commercialized neighborhood way worse, and are sketching personally, I’m with ya.
The area around Wrigley was a slum for decades. It needed gentrification. Thank you, Ricketts, from the Wrigleyville neighbors.
Slum, Prunella? Hardly. It was gentrifying the first time Ricketts walked in there when he was in college.
The HELL Wrigley isn’t a tourist trap. Strike the Iowans, out of towners, and “game must be on their phone” sorority girls….and you have 15k in the stands maybe. It’s not about “my day” I’m not that old…but if you dont think seeing fans sitting on buildings…pre-ginormous scoreboards…actual neighborhood…wasn’t better…you’re in on it. It wasn’t THAT long ago. Sometimes things WERE better. I’ve been in a LOT of ballparks…and Wrigley is the one where the game seems incidental. It doesn’t have to stay Harry and 1984…but dang…they ripped the heart out of it.
I lived there from 2011-2012, it was really not a great neighborhood. Our apartment got broken into (must have been some very disappointed criminals) and the police told us that part of the problem is the El, though. You’d get people that’d take the El to that neighborhood and commit crimes, then jump back on.
I haven’t been around there since 2015, have they managed to get that kind of stuff under control? It doesn’t really matter how nice you make an area look if it’s still dangerous.
Agree 100%
If Rizzo is such a great “leader” why did Theo keep bringing in the John Jay’s and Daniel Descalso’s of the world for their ” leadership”?
I agree that’s probably what they will do but they should do the opposite
I think Rizzo will take anything close to a fair offer. He’s so deeply rooted in Chi & he knows his back issues/age will tamp down FA offers. I’d say offer him 4/68 with a mutual option for ‘26.
Trade him then offer him that. Then you get prospects and Rizzo.
I have a funny feeling Javy will be playing in the dreaded bronx next year.
They’re just trying to buy low. They will fail and claim “they tried’.
They should have blown it up in the
2020 off-season
They would have Received MORE
After 2019 or even 18 was the time.
Offer rizzo 4yrs $70MM with an option for a 5th year at $20MM with a $10MM buyout. He won’t get better than that on the open market. Offer Baez the QO – he’ll take it so he can be the best SS on the market after 2022 instead of a runner up trophy for this years crop of SS’s. If he doesn’t – you at least get a pick. Trade KB for a couple of P’s that will be ready in 2023. Extend Contreras. Only take offers on Hendricks if Heyward is attached.
Good thoughts there…think that’s exactly what they will do.
Hendricks has a team-friendly contract through 2024. Dumping him for only eating Heyward’s salary makes absolutely no sense given the Cubs’ struggle developing quality pitching. We need a stabilizer at the right price unless something amazing comes along.
I didn’t mean to imply dumping Hendricks for pennies on the dollar just to unload Heywards contract -..only that they should be open to only offers that include Heyward being involved as well.
I hear ya. However, Heyward has a full no-trade clause (I don’t know if he has an acceptable teams list) and Hendricks is under one more year of control than Heyward. It would have to be a crazy nuts deal for $ and P unless we suddenly grow SP.
Riff I just gotta point out the intelligence in your post. For all the bad ideas on here, that’s a really reasonable game plan. Not sure how it will all play out, but if it went down this way, it would be hard to be upset. Well done sir.
Just proves the old adage – even a blind squirrel finds a nut now and then lol – but ty for the compliment
It’s reasonable from a fan perspective. No GM takes Heyward even with Hendricks. None! Unless you pay a very substantial portion of the contract. The Cubs would be paying to lose their best (team friendly deal) pitcher.
paindonthurt – totally agree. cubs should not be taking offers on Hendricks at all but if there was a team willingly to not only give up a respectable package but also take Heywards contract cubs would be fools not to at least think about it. Do I think such a GM exists? No. But I didn’t think Vernon Wells and his contract was going to be traded either.
Jd davis,Oswalt,Familla, maurichiano for Bryant kendricks. One can dream
He might also take it just because he’s been having a couple down years and might want to “prove it” before entering the market.
Only problem with that is if you can trade him for more than the QO pick you’re losing out on value by holding onto him.
I think an Abreu, Molina-type contract should be enough for Rizzo. 3yrs, $50-60 million. Add a vesting option for a fourth year and incentives or escalators for awards. If he doesn’t go for it, QO him and good luck to him on the open market.
They offered him 5/70 and he turned it down. Not sure what he thinks he can get.
I think trading Hendricks should be on the table. That doesn’t necessarily mean you HAVE to trade him (in the sense of the pending free agents that need to be traded), but there’s a lot of pitching hungry teams out there.
You already see Hendricks giving up more hits, more homers, and more slug this year. My fear is that sooner or later teams are really going to figure him out and start hitting him hard. If that happens, the talk is going to be all about “should’ve traded him years ago”
He’s also a candidate to be traded in the offseason since he’s not a free agent.
Just something to think about.
Now this is a sound, thought-out plan.
I like how you think the player has no say in an extension. If the Cubs really have the ability to “just extend” whoever they want, it’s Bryant they should be going after.
Trading KB won’t get you a “couple of P’s that will be ready to start in 2023” for a few month rental. Returns will be awful.
I mean, a couple Ps ready to start in 2023 isn’t saying much, unless you expect them to be good. The return won’t be awful, but I do think it’ll be less than what a lot of people seem to be expecting.
This is what teams do. I’m not sure how anyone can be against the Cubs blowing it up. They had a run of success, they won a World Series and now it’s time to fix the salary cap and rebuild the farm system. That is how you maintain success long term. Avoiding shelling out big contracts to Rizzo, Bryant, and Baez will make it easier to spend in the future once the prospects youd get in return are ready and once some of the other bad contracts like Heywards are off the books.
Cubs should trade Rizzo, Baez, Bryant, Davies for sure since they are expiring deals and could be brought back as free agents in the off-season if they wanted. They could go either way on Kimbrel, I say trade him now, but they could always pick up the option and trade him in the off-season. Also trade Contreas in the off-season. And obviously see what, if anything, you can get for guys like Chafin, Duffy, etc. if you can also figure out someway to package someone like Hendricks or Kimbrel with Hayward to try and unload that contract that would be great but it’s a longshot.
Regardless though, it’s time to rebuild and retool the roster for a year or two.
Don’t reduce the return to get rid of Heyward. They should have no issue carrying that contract the next few years while they rebuild.
Sentimentality aside, @jawinks is right. Our minors are stacked with MI, and Nico Hoerner’s natural position is SS where he got some looks in Spring Training. That dude actually makes contact, too. Let Baez and his all-or-nothing approach walk. Sure he’s can be electric, but his OBP is always a smattering above his average.
Who’s replacing Rizzo at 1B? Patrick Wisdom who is exactly 1 year younger than Rizzo? Bote? The guy we just got from the Braves is at High A. Wisdom might have options left, but that’s a huge loss at 1B defensively and I refuse to give up Rizzo’s offense not bouncing back. What would they even get for Rizzo at this point of the season as well? Intangibly, he’s also the team’s captain. Wouldn’t make sense for me.
@ stosh16 – Rizzo is probably the easiest of the bunch to replace, and it can be done at a fraction of the cost. No sense in continuing to pay for Rizzo’s downhill slide. So say your goodbyes – he gone.
You said, “He gone,” so I’m assuming you’re a Sox fan, negating your point entirely. But whatever. Sure, you can replace him with a monkey and glove, but that doesn’t mean you’ll get the same value for $. Who are you thinking of? The team’s not going to pay for 1B (I have to look at the 1B FA class) or for anything regardless of how cheap, so you have to look at your internal options. I agree with @riffraff that Baez will hang on to test 2022’s FA friendlier waters. KB’s gone, and I’m not sad about that as we’d never resign him. I don’t get the attachment. He’s not been at 100% consistently for years with injuries, but I get his new-found utility role.
There will be plenty of cheap free-agent 1B on the market. CJ Cron and Matt Adams, for example. Note that I said cheap, not good.
@ahh Note that I said value, not cost.
Nope, far from a Wsox fan and you missed my point entirely. 1B is probably the easiest position on the field to fill. Guys like Garrett Cooper, Jesus Aguilar, Carlos Santana, Trey Mancini, Johnathan Schoop, Ty France, Nate Lowe, Josh Bell, CJ Cron, and various platoon options, are cheaper than Rizzo and have out performed him as of late. Rizzo is the monkey with glove (that you mentioned). As a unbiased baseball fan, Rizzo simply has no real value at this present time. It’s time to move along, and use the payroll flexibility somewhere else that will benefit the club in the long run.
I’m with a friendly Rizzo extension and a QO for Javy hoping he doesn’t accept or a trade. Rizzo’s contract won’t be a break the bank. type.
Bote will never be a starting caliber player at any position. He’s fine as a bench piece. As for Wisdom, he is exactly the kind of hitter the Cubs DON’T need. They need a balance of contact and power guys, and while Wisdom has terrific power, he strikes out like Baez and is tailing off from his great start this season. I would definitely wait a while before declaring him a starter.
Hoerner’s natural position is most definitely not SS.
He was drafted as a shortstop and was converted when it was clear there was now path there. Look at Spring Training this year for recent examples.
Love Nico and everything he brings to the game. I know the reasons for the Cubs tanking were many, but his high contact bat not being in the lineup for an extended period of time was a major factor.
I’ll laugh so hard if they sign Baez to a huge deal. And my Cubs friends will cry.
They want out not to go through a rebuild stop kidding yourself.Cubs trying to put on a good face with the fans
My first thought too. As a Cubs fan, it’ll be tough seeing these guys leave. Whether you love them or hate them, the Cubs have been one of the best teams in baseball since 2015. This core brought back a championship. So many teams don’t. It’s time though.
Hoyer has repeatedly said it won’t be a full rebuild, though. Why burn it all down when some pieces get still be valuable? We’re never resigning Bryant, and I’m not sure how much we’d get back for him as a rental with Scott Boras behind him. Unless we get something that’s not giving him away, keep him and give him a QO to reject. I said above our 1B options won’t replace Rizzo, and Nico plays SS. But wait and see how Amaya pans out this year before extending Contreras, if possible.
No, Willie is the kind of player you build around. Not too many better catchers in the sport. But he wants to win and isn’t afraid to say it. Therefore, the Cubs probably want to deal him, as they are adverse to players openly saying what they think and rocking the boat.
@rememeberthecoop. I disagree with your overall point. I agree Contreras is great, and I love how he whips balls behind runners at 1B at 80 miles per hour. I was there for his defensive debut, and I immediately fell in love. But I don’t know a player who says he wants to lose and is apathetic. That’s sentimental. If Amaya turns out to be better as Willson’s backup or whatever they want to do with him, in the spirit of this conversation about the value of the core, you have to take a look at Amaya’s vs. Willson’s value. We don’t know what will happen, but Amaya is really good.
He can say whatever he wants, it doesn’t change their current situation. Unless they plan on running a $300m payroll, they’re gonna need to rebuild.
Alma Mater, from School’s Out, correct?
@1984wasntamanual You misread. I didn’t say keep them, and he didn’t say keep them all. If you’ve been following the team, he said sentimentality shouldn’t be involved in baseball decisions. I didn’t say keep them all., Hoyer’s saying be prepared for some to go.
I didn’t misread anything. Hoyer can say it’s not going to be a full rebuild, but with the talent they currently have (both ML/and MiL), they’re not close to being a good team again. So unless they plan to spend huge in free agency to fill all of the holes, they’re going to be doing a rebuild…even if they don’t want to call it that.
I think the Rizzo situation is a little similar to when Eric Hosmer hit free agency. Not in the sense of their performance since Rizzo is much better, but in the sense that they’re both “stars” who won a world series with their franchises and then there is just this expectation that they need to be signed by that team to long term deals.
If you look at what happened with Hosmer, KC made some big offers pretty much because he had been with the franchise and had won there. They actually dodged a huge bullet though with SD signing him because now in his 30’s he just isn’t productive.
I’m not saying that Rizzo is going to be exactly like that because he is a much better player, but if the Cubs sign Rizzo to some 5 year deal until he’s 37 based off of their nostalgia of him winning a WS and them trying to keep some of the “core”, they’re probably going to regret it at some point.
The only assets I see to trade on this team right now are Rizzo, Contreras, Davies and WInkler, Tepera and Chaflin. There’s a lack of need for a Baez and I would like to see the Cubs start trying to court Bryant again to build the future team around him. I know Bryant wants to enter FA, but repair the relationship so if your offering the same $$’s and years as others he’ll resign.
Outside of a deal in the Mookie Betts range it is highly unlikely Bryant is a Cub next year
KB isn’t the type of player you start to build a team around. He’s gonna be 30 and the cubs need to add a lot of talent before they’re legitimate contenders again so they won’t be able to take full advantage of the front end of that contract.
Not sure how not trading him, thus preventing him from finishing out the year playing for a contender and also ensuring that he gets QO’d, “repairs the relationship.”
Um, if he gets traded, he cannot be QO’d. So in theory, it would make his market stronger not weaker, as the new team would no longer be required to give up a pick
What’s confusing about that?
@BeforeMcCourt msqboxer said that the Cubs should keep Bryant in order to “repair the relationship.” I said that I wasn’t sure how not trading him would “repair the relationship” because it would mean he doesn’t get to finish out this season playing for a contender and also has to deal with the QO in free agency, as it is all but guaranteed that the Cubs will QO him if he is not traded.
Hee Hee delusional- no way Bryant’s coming back. Davies and Rizzo are assets how? For teams looking to replicate 7 run explosions and in need of a guy with a hurt back for the stretch?
How much is Rizzo gonna command? He looks to be in offensive decline and he’s at about that age. I wouldn’t give him a big contract. Let some other team regret that decision.
Both are more valuable to the Cubs than they are to anyone else and both should probably consider what the team is offering.
Rizzo will be playing his age 32 season next year, has seen a fairly significant drop in power as well as OPS and an increase in strikeouts. Plus we’ve seen how unkind free agency is to 1B/DH types, especially those over 30. Not sure what kind of deal he is looking for but i doubt anyone goes over 4 years and $100 million.
Baez may benefit from Lindor being off the market but he is still 3rd best SS available after Seager and Correa. The game doesn’t have many big spenders and you can already count the Mets out.
You forgot Semien. Baez is 4th fa ss.
Funny, but the only guy of the 3 that I’d want to re-sign is Bryant. Rizzo isn’t producing and has a chronic bad back, while Baez is an all-or-nothing type of hitter. Plus, Rizzo isn’t the leader he’s supposed to be considering the fact that he won’t get the vaccine, plus he’s been fighting with Contreras about Willie’s comments, which in my opinion were great and needed to be said. But said by Rizzo? Hell no, he’s trying to squash those comments instead.
“Not the leader he is supposed to be because he won’t get the vaccine. ” Welp, better cancel Tony now. You probably hope he dies huh, along with the rest of the unvaccinated? So many ridiculous people on here.
i say you trade them all for some plug and play young talent. Guys that are ready for MLB playing time. Then you turn around and try to re-sign some of those vets in the off season.
Rizzo and Davies back to the padres doesn’t sound too bad. Hoz stinks and Davies could eat some innings
Except, what do you with Hosmer? No DH in the NL, untradeable contract, and too much money still owed to release him
Calling BS. This is a publicity stunt. They will continue to low-ball, and then state, “welp, we tried”.
I agree that it’s a publicity stunt, but I don’t think the previous offer to Rizzo is a low ball offer, considering his production, age and back.
Thank the lord. Rizzo and Baez are the heart of the team. Honestly if either of them get traded then there’ll prolly be riots in wrigleyville and I’ll be right there with them
Hee hee
Would you rather trade them for prospects or lose them for nothing?
Braves should offer Swanson and a couple prospects for Baez.
Too much
I would pass on an extension for Rizzo and Baez. Bryant, stated in other comments, will be a free agent most certainly with the guidance by Boras. If extensions are being considered, then try to get Wilson Contreras and even Kyle Hendricks extended. Other than that it’s time to close the books on the core and move on.
No point in keeping them. Trade them as well along with Kimbrel, Bryant, Davies, Contreras, Hendricks, and Tepera.
Did they really offer him 5 for 70 before the season. That’s a terrible offer. 14 million for your leader, who you won with and was in such a team friendly co tract to begin with.
Offer both of them 5 for 115-125 or trade them.
Paying for past performance is dumb. He hasn’t been good and he’s only gonna be getting older. I wouldn’t be surprised if that 5/70 (I think it also had escalator/incentives) is better than what he ends up getting on the FA market.
No No No please NO !
They are going to have a lot of future money to spend –
The Question for the Cubs is: Do they want to use it for a better future or hanging onto fond memories of the past ?
You unload about 8~10 more players in the next 2 weeks and don’t stop until the cupboard is bare – This NEEDS to be a full on Tier III tear down to the studs rebuild
These hedge articles always scare me. I know there’s always shades of gray in everything and this may be all PR fluff but why not just be honest w the fans from jump street???….. I mean its not like there not gonna be there the next 3 years…… I think Cubs fans have (happily) endured plenty of losing in recent history….I think they’d handle a well devised plan from management superbly even if it meant bottoming out for awhile
My gut feeling is that Rizzo and Baez are staying. That being written, I hope that Contreras is the only one who stays.
Why would they try to extend Baez and not Bryant?
Kris Bryant is a Boras client. It’s basically a non-starter, and the Cubs likely made that a certainty with the service time debacle earlier in his career.
Such BS. They just don’t want to pay market rate
Boras clients have and will continue to sign extensions if they’re paid their market value. The Cubs are clearly trying to buy low and Bryant is no longer that guy. They botched that too…
Seeing how most of the Boras client contracts work out for their teams, I have a very hard time seeing their reluctance to pay, “market value”, for him as botching something.
At this point Boras is not going to let his client sign an extension unless it’s a vast overreach. This close to free agency… he’ll want him to go into free agency and determine real market value.
Sure – Boras may have an idea of a contract he wants for Bryant. I’d have to believe it’s north of 10 years $300M. Probably north of Lindor’s outrageous contract of 10 years $341M. I’m sure if the Cubs came to him with a 10 year $400M contract, they’d definitely consider it.
But honestly, my own personal opinion says Bryant’s not worth that much. When it comes to Runs and RBIs – much like Lindor – Bryant has lead the league in one of those categories once in his career, 121 Runs in 2016 (Lindor 129 Runs in 2018). Bryant may put up a lot of good numbers, but not really the numbers that matter. (to me anyway)
Scherzer, Soto, Seager, Bogaerts, Altuve, Ryu, JDM, Urias.. the list of highly productive players being underpaid on their contracts represented by Boras that I could think of off the top of my head
Players get hurt. That’s about the only reason, sans Chris Davis, why a mega Boras contract fail
Soto, Urias and Seager are all in arb so of course they are going to be underpaid. Boras can’t do anything about that. JDM is not overpaid. If he was he would have opted out.
Meh. Imo JDM would have opted out if not for Covid. That’s not boras’s fault
My point with the list is he has countless elite guys lining up for mega paydays year over year. All of those guys have been elite since drafted/signed. The ones who have been to FA have more than earned their contracts. His mega deals tend to work out pretty well for the team from a value standpoint, as well or better than any other agent
@BeforeMcCourt Steve Adams (who writes for this site) said that the Red Sox probably want JDM to opt out. If the team wants the player to opt out, you can almost guarantee that he won’t opt out.
Market hasn’t been kind to DH only types on the wrong side of 30 with QO’s attached the past few years anyway.
Your point is severely undermined when 3/8 examples you use are guys that are still on their original MLB contract and one of them doesn’t fit the criteria you are trying to prove.
If you have to resort to that in order to make your case, perhaps it’s not a very good one.
Off the top of my head: Strasburg, Rendon, Arrieta (Phillies), Hosmer, Choo, Ellsbury are all contracts I think teams did or will regret.
Seager is in line for 300M This year and Soto is already talked about being the first 400M guy, but yes because they’re on their original contract they aren’t superstar talent teams would kill to add to their offense
Once again. Covid is a huge wrench in JDM contract. Saying “a writer here who knew about Covid shares my opinion” doesn’t change that fact. You glossed over the criteria then tried to quote someone as if they’re an expert to prove your point. Nice strategy there. There’s no way covid is on Boras. In a non Covid environment, based on how the 2019 market was going+ his 2020, I still think there’s a good chance JDM opts out hunting a longer guarantee even if aav is lower
And 84, I didn’t realize Rendon’s 147 OPS+ With elite defense last year was a failure. He’s hurt this year. But that contract is FAR from over
Players get injured. Happens to every agent. You quoted “injury, injury, injury, dumb owner, injury, injury” for why his contracts didn’t work out. But somehow all that is Boras’s fault? Lmao you sound like an angry child with a grudge against someone who took your cookie
3% walk rate, 36.6% K rate. F the 20 bombs, I wouldn’t touch that with a 10 foot pole
But offering Rizzo about half of what Goldy got barely 2 years later is hilarious. The classic “well we made an offer..” offer
For me if they going unload a couple guys they might as well move kyle he is easily a solid two on most teams and at 14 mill a year with couple years of control he is a steal and should garner the best prospect return..if they going change this roster they are at least two years out from contending sell now and continue to restock a farm system that needs some young talent
I believe Rizzo has 10/5 rights and can not be traded without his consent.
He does not.
Nope. Entered this season with just under 9 years of control (SeRvIcE tImE mAnIpUlAtIoN!). So he would not hit that point until a few days into the 2022 season and even then only if he stays with the Cubs.
There’s no way Rizzo is worth 5/70 in his mid 30’s. His numbers are clearly declining. 2/35 including a 3rd year option. That’s it.
For everyone that claims it’s ridiculous for the Cubs to listen to Hendricks, look at Matt Boyd. If they get blown away, sometimes it’s worth taking the offer
Had a thought, and honestly I could see both teams rejecting it so it makes me think it could be on the path to equal
Gavin Lux+Josiah Gray for Rizzo and Hendricks
Immediate replacement for Báez if traded, and for Hendricks by next year, if not immediately. For LA, Rizzo takes over 1B from Albert, Muncy stays at 2B and Seager slides back to SS when off IL. Commits LA to spending big on a SS this offseason but most expected that any ways I think. And Hendricks gives them safety if Bauer is out for year and for future. food for thought
It’s not a bad idea. I think Friedman has a plan in place to be able to keep Seager and Bellinger on the Dodgers without moving any key young talent and has set up certain contracts to facilitate it, likely with Kasten’s financial blessing. However, the Dodgers have shown a strong reluctance to include Lux in any trade talks and it wouldn’t surprise me if the plan is to move Seager to third once Turner’s contract is done, with Lux moving to shortstop permanently. That is just my speculation, of course. Nevertheless, they need to do something about their starting rotation, so that could change things. I have no idea what will happen with Bauer’s situation, but I am not very optimistic about it right now, even if it ends up getting settled out of court. That is an en entirely different discussion, though.
If the damn yankees miss the playoffs which I sure hope, I’m thinking they throw money at seager or Baez over the winter.
I hear you 100% on Lux. And truly, I think the Dodgers pass on this deal even if it looks decent on paper. But to get a pitcher like Hendricks with 3.5 years of control at the deadline, Lux is the type of talent that likely is moved. Rizzo is more likely to have a good playoff series this year than Lux id wager, and that could weigh in on the conversation
I do think LA plans to be above the threshold for 2-3 years. And if they plan to keep Bellinger(CF), Seager(3B), Lux(SS) and Taylor(2B/LF), it can work. That almost certainly requires them to be above the threshold for a few years. However, if they’re looking at the trade as “Bauer’s future tax hit to Hendricks”, that ~30M difference could be appealing to help keep the offensive core together.
I’ll say this. La has a lot of ways they can move. Which is why they’re so successful
All this uncertainty surrounding so many key Cubs players must be great for the clubhouse atmosphere. I bet the team in general is having a blast this season and don’t want it to ever end.
Rizzo needs to go to the AL where he can DH some. Baez…ooof…those are some ugly numbers, but he can field at a high level. Phillies may want him. Their defense sucks.
Both players have been awful for two seasons. Why make any attempt to resign them?
Baez is on pace for a 4 fwar season this year (somehow), so he hasn’t been awful this year. He has a 107 wRC+, so he’s actually been an above average hitter. That said, I do not want any part of him on a long term deal. I will not be at all surprised if his decline is more of a fall off a cliff.
Just poor they way all there stars contracts come due on the same year. Too many at once, it’s a real blow to cubbie fans.
Boston would do well to inquire and try and pry Hendricks if they could. He’s exactly what they’re looking for. I just dont think theyll like the price tag of such a deal.
I don’t think they’ll get a lot for players that are FA’s like Rizzo,Baez or Bryant , if they don’t want a full rebuild they should try to resign Rizzo and Baez now and trade Bryant and maybe Contreras. I’d (Mets) trade Mauricio and another minor leaguer for Bryant since he’s a FA and not knowing if they can resign him can’t give up too much
Why trade Contreras? He’s the best all around catcher the Cubs have had in 50 + years and he’s just turned 29 and his current salary is 6.65 mil. I’d like to see management commit to Contreras on an extension and trade Amaya in a package to bring back a quality top of the rotation starter. But of course, Hoyer will do something else.
Bryant is the one they should be looking to extend or trade then re-sign. Everyone else can go.
Rizzo would be a perfect addition for the Red Sox, which I’ve said as recent as last week. But the more I look at it, the more I think Red Sox shouldn’t make the deal. Here’s why:
1) Cubs would want a big return for him, not only for his value, but to make up for lost comp pick if he’s traded.
2) Rizzo/Boras would want a lot of $$$ to resign in Boston. Whoever signs him, will in 2 or 3 years regret it. So it would probably be a half season rental.
3) Red Sox doing okay, even without quality First Baseman. Better to go to trading dealing and get an okay bat on the cheap, and not give up much, or go with whoever is best help (Chavis, Dalbec, Santana, Cordero, Ockimey or Casas).
Regarding leadership capabilities, who do you want to keep: Contreras or Rizzo? Seems like one is a leader and one is a detriment. That’s what they seem to be telling us.
Personally, I was disappointed in Rizzo and Heyward when they said they won’t get Covid shots. Team players? Leaders?
Anyone who doesn’t think the Cubs have done a terrible job managing the roster at this point is delusional. Complete botch job. What’s worse is they don’t ZERO leverage in trade negotiations.
*they have ZERO leverage…
This is not correct.
The market is thin. Kimbrel is the best piece on the market. Bryant will net a good return if they trade him.
Meh, I don’t like what they did last offseason (trading Darvish and non-tendering Schwarber but keeping everyone else) but prior to that they clearly were intent on contending and they really couldn’t trade their core players if they wanted to have a realistic shot at doing that.
At least in Bryant’s case, their leverage is the fact that teams clearly are interested. The Cubs can’t afford to walk away from the negotiating table, sure. But if you want Bryant you still have to be the highest bidder.
In the meantime, the White Sox extend Lance Lynn.
Javy Baez is laughable–I would not sign him or trade for him. Any pitcher who gives up a hit to him has only himself to blame. Don’t throw him a strike, and you will strike him out. He no longer hustles (should have been thrown out at second on a ball to the wall–he literally stood at home plate admiring it). He could have been a fantastic talent, but no discipline. Had a couple great years, but we’ll never see them again.
Neither is worth the money they are asking and their value has only diminished… the cubbies are in a tough spot… what to do ? Trading any of them as rentals will not get you much in return… what to do ?
It’s time for the Cubs to rebuild, starting with the farm system, Having 4-5 players with large contracts and no pitching is a waste of time and money. Heyward’s contract is just dumb, but typical Theo. LOL
I believe that we should also get rid of David Ross , fire him and bring in RYNO, Ross is a retired catcher not a manager at all, this year I’ve had to turn the game off when he doesn’t know what to do, I’m a lifelong Cubs fan who is fighting ALS
Get rid of Ross
The best thing they could do is to RELEASE Jason Hayward, that has been a hole in the lineup since he arrived.