The Red Sox announced they’ve agreed to a two-year contract extension with closer Matt Barnes. The deal also contains a club option covering the 2024 campaign.
Barnes will play out the remainder of this season on the $4.5MM deal he signed last winter to avoid arbitration. He’ll receive a $1.75MM signing bonus, followed by successive salaries of $7.25MM and $7.5MM in 2022 and 2023. The option is priced at $8MM (with a $2.25MM buyout) and can escalate by a maximum of $2MM based upon Barnes’ games finished totals over the coming years. Overall, it’s an $18.75MM guarantee for the ISE Baseball client that can max out at $26.5MM if he hits all the escalators and the Red Sox exercise the option. The average annual value (calculated for luxury tax purposes) checks in at $9.375MM.
The extension removes arguably the top impending free agent reliever from next winter’s market. Barnes has generally been a solid late-inning arm, but he’s taken his game to a new level in 2021. The right-hander has worked to a sterling 2.68 ERA across 37 innings, and his peripherals are even more impressive.
Barnes has always been a premier strikeout pitcher, but his 44.6% strikeout percentage is easily a career-high. He’s walking opponents at a 7.2% clip, which would also be a personal best if he sustains it over a full season. The right-hander is throwing first-pitch strikes at a career-best rate, positioning himself well to coax hitters to chase pitches outside the zone deeper into plate appearances. That’s particularly critical for Barnes, who struggled with free passes from 2018-20.
Altogether, Barnes has been among the top late-inning arms in the league this season. Among relievers with at least twenty innings pitched, only Josh Hader and Craig Kimbrel have higher strikeout rates. Liam Hendriks and Kimbrel are the only pitchers with better strikeout/walk rate differentials than Barnes’ 37.4 percentage-point gap. Hendriks is the only reliever with a better SIERA than Barnes’ 1.73 mark, and the Red Sox righty’s 16.3% swinging strike rate is among the top 15. Barnes has deservedly earned his first career All-Star nod in 2021.
That level of dominance makes it a bit surprising he agreed to a two-year extension just a few months before reaching free agency for the first time. Hendriks, last winter’s top free agent reliever, landed a four-year, $54MM deal from the White Sox despite being a few months older than Barnes will be this offseason. Hendriks was coming off a two-year run of excellence, while Barnes has only been pitching at an elite level for a few months following a career of solid but not incredible production. It would’ve been a surprise to see Barnes match Hendriks’ deal because of that slightly lesser track record, but he still seemed a strong candidate to secure a three-year pact on the open market.
Of course, a player’s desire to reach free agency and search for the loftiest guarantee varies person-to-person. Barnes is a New England native who attended college at the University of Connecticut. He’s been a member of the Red Sox organization since he was selected in the first round a decade ago, and he’s spoken about his amenability to locking in a long-term deal a few times over the past eight months. Barnes’ affinity for the organization no doubt played a significant role in his passing up an opportunity to hear from other clubs this winter.
It’s easy to see the appeal for the Red Sox. They’ll lock in a key component of their bullpen for at least two more seasons, with the potential to keep him in the fold for a third year. If Barnes can sustain most or all of his current breakout form, they’d have an elite back-end option for manager Alex Cora at bargain prices. Even if Barnes regresses and pitches at his previous levels, the terms of the extension wouldn’t look all that unreasonable. It’s an affordable opportunity for the Red Sox to keep around a long-tenured, productive member of the organization who looks to have taken his game to new heights this year.
Alex Speier of the Boston Globe first reported that the sides were nearing agreement on a two-year deal with a 2024 option. Speier was also first to report the financial breakdown.
Nice. Good length of the contract.
Closers are always unpredictable, but 2 years plus a team option is certainly team friendly. I think it was a great signing.
Now Bloom has to get Devers, Xander and JD all extended.
Isnt Xander signed for 4 more years?
He can opt-out after next season. Considering how he’s been playing, and that he’s a Boras client, opt out is likely.
Xander can opt out after next season, no chance he’ll continue on the current contract in 2023.
He will be resigned
1. Haven’t been a Barnes fan until this year. Deal seems solid limiting the team’s long term exposure and providing him with $$ without moving.
2. I’m expecting Xmab to renegotiate once this year’s free agents set the free agent market. Boras recently intimated they were amenable.
The opt out clause was put in at Boras’s insistence. Bogaerts didn’t want it and put it in to humor boras. Highly unlikely he will exercise it.. He’s not Mookie Betts who had absolutely no loyalty to the Red Sox and is a total mercenary at heart, which is his right.
Sir betts was traded
The Bogaerts deal was all his doing. Amount, then add in it was signed before he went to FA both went against the grain of everything Boras stands for. bogey insisted on the deal and boras had little say in getting it done, but this time around, Bogey himself, even with club loyalty knows he’s one of the most valuable position players in the league and deserves more than 20m. I’d be very surprised to see him settle for a new deal shorter than 5y and less than 25-7m, more like 7y and around 30m if Boras has anything to say.
Barnes deal is perfect for both sides. He gets 3-26m and Ottavino signed for 27m as a strict setup guy with another club. Joe Kelly 25m likewise.. 26m is a steal for Barnes.
PKCasimir – Go into work tomorrow and insist on a 20% pay cut so fans like you don’t group you with Mookie as a greedy employee who lacks loyalty!
Mercenary? “primarily concerned with making money at the expense of ethics” Wouldn’t Cora be the more appropriate name to choose? What ethics did Mookie violate when asking for fair pay?
Also, there is no way you know for a fact that Boras insisted on the clause and Mookie didn’t want it. That’s just bs.
Xander’s contract was an absolute bargain at the time, one of the best things Dombrowski ever did with the Sox.
Now Xander is worth at least $30M annually, why would he want to stay at $20M? Nobody would leave that kind of money on the table.
johnsilver3 hours ago
Joe Kelly 25m likewise..
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Kelly was the first guy I thought of. I thought he was an overpay by LAD, but Kelly seems like the floor for Barnes, while Kimbrel might be the ceiling.
He’s not Mookie Betts who had absolutely no loyalty to the Red Sox
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I don’t see it that way. My guess (with little doubt in my mind) is that he simply wanted to play elsewhere. Just like Barnes in the fact that Barnes really wanted to stay with the RS, so we got a good deal.
Seen from a different angle, if Betts wanted to move on, then the mercenary move would be to STAY with the RS, if only for more money.
100% agree. Don’t think Betts intended to resign with the Sox under any circumstance, which is his prerogative, hell of a player, loved watching him, no need for ill feelings.
He’ll still exercise it to extend his deal based on his colleagues’ deals at short. He’s proven overall he’s as good as any of them. Some may do one thing better but the total package? He ranks with them all.
Mookie had every right to do what he did. No issues. The Dodgers had the long term flexibility Boston did not have. Difference between the Dodgers and the Yankees can be shown simply with Stanton. The Yankees took in his deal thinking of short term value whereas the Dodgers passed, looking at both immediate and long term finances.
I also look at where Boston would be had they re-signed Betts. I’d rather have X-man, JDM, Kiki, Verdugo and Renfroe than Betts and Price. Plus there’s Jeter (oh how awkward that sounds) and Wong in the minors.
Meant to add Benni to the alternative package.
You realize Mookie pegged his price before his trade to LA in an article, “less than Trout but over Harper”?
Three times Boston came to him with an offer, and each time they were 100M short of what he countered at. It sounds like Boston didn’t want to pay him market rate. He wanted to land between Trout and Harper. He landed exactly there with his LA deal
It wasn’t hate for Boston. Boston never offered him any more than Machado money. And he’s better than Machado
KD – not every person goes for the absolute highest dollar!!!! Some players decide where they live and who they play for is more important.
KD – you are still master of your own dreams. You arrogant jerk….
Devers or JD. Both should be DH. Sign one or the other, use the payroll on pitching.
Devers can improve definitely at third, but not a DH yet. He’s been steadily getting better and has the tools, most of his errors are mental. Don’t forget, Adrian Beltre had 3 20+ error season (one with 29) before his age 25 season. Devers only has two… now I don’t expect him to become Beltre but the point is he has time to improve and the skills to do so.
Not sure why that posted twice… but point stands
Jworth307 – A faulty comparison often made by people who don’t consider the difference in eras.
Lets compare fielding % of the player to league average each year to better understand the eras.
Devers –
2017 age 20 – .906 to .956 league average – total errors 14/149 chances
2018 age 21 – .926 to .958 league average – total errors 24/326 chances
2019 age 22 – .949 to .958 league average – total errors 22/431 chances
2020 age 23 – .891 to .958 league average – total errors 14/128 chances
2021 age 24 – .955 to .957 league average – total errors 12/265 chances
Clearly Devers is below average every season so far and in some cases far below average. He tends to improve one year then regress the next year and has led all of baseball since he got promoted to the Red Sox in errors for 3Bs by year!!
Beltre
1998 age 19 – 925 to .957 league average – total errors 13/174 chances
1999 age 20 – 932 to .953 league average – total errors 29/424 chances
2000 age 21 – 944 to .950 league average – total errors 23/412 chances
2001 age 22 – .952 to .950 league average – total errors 16/330 chances
2002 age 23 – .954 to .957 league average – total errors 20/434 chances
So Beltre started at 19 and Devers at 20. Devers has yet to perform to league average and by 22 (2 years younger than Devers today) Beltre exceeded league average.
Also, comparing their first 5 years :
Devers 86 errors in 1299 chances – .934 fielding percentage
Beltre 101 errors in 1774 chances – .943 fielding percentage
Now compare the era and the average fielding percentage for the first five years for each player:
Beltre – .953 league average compared to his .943 – 10 points below
Devers – .957 league average compared to his .934 – 23 points below
Your whole attempt at suggesting greatness is predicated on Beltre actually being a great fielder. He wasn’t despite his Gold Gloves. Why?
Check the numbers, politics enter into the decision making not performance.
Beltre GG years
2007 age 28 – Fielding percentage .958 to .957 league average
2008 age 29 – Fielding percentage .964 to .958 league average
2011 age 32 = Fielding percentage .965 to .954 league average
2012 age 33 – Fielding percentage .974 to .952 league average
2016 age 37 – Fielding percentage .976 to .959 league average
In 2007 there were 7 players with better fielding percentages who played at least 120 games that year with Iwamura being the highest at .975 in 283 total chances. Beltre was awarded with the GG but didn’t really deserve it based on the numbers.
Similar comparisons can be made for each of his 5 wins.
Beltre’s .960 fielding percentage for his career is NOT in the top tier of defensive 3Bs. Beltre was much better than Devers with the same experience level and was a year younger to achieve the same experience level because he was a better player. Beltre wasn’t great when he won his gold gloves but nobody can take them away from him and with current 3Bs Devers isn’t going to get similar breaks to win a GG.
Expecting Devers to be league average is a HUGE hope after 9 years of professional baseball counting the minors and him still struggling to make it to league average. We are not talking about Devers being good, we are just talking league average.
He’s a DH. His skill sets say he’s a DH and his performance proves he’s a DH. Pitchers hate having weak defenders in top 3 fielding positions (3B, SS and 2B). He’s a huge liability at 3B. The roster doesn’t allow for him to be elsewhere but as soon as it does, he either needs to be the DH or traded.
Devers has made 1 more error in 5 years than Machado has in 10 years. That’s how much better the Red Sox defense could be. Why not find someone above league average and save a half dozen to a dozen errors per year. Plus, Devers avoids about a dozen errors a year on favorable score keeping decisions. If the front office doesn’t want the exposure to hit the media, they have ways to skew the story. The Butcher at 3B must be moved as soon as possible.
Dude….how long did it take for you to type this shiz?
Here loser. This is why Beltre is one of the best 3B ever. It has nothing to do with politics
Since 03, when this website started gathering data, Beltre leads all 3B with 200 defensive runs saved. The next guy on the list? Arenado, at 133. After him? Rolen, at 114.
Let’s recap. Beltre saved 86 more runs than the 3rd best 3B in the same era.. He’s 105 more runs saved than the 5th best 3B. Starting at #4, everyone’s gap behind Beltre is larger than their entire career DRS. Politics? Please
http://fieldingbible.com/DRSLeaderboard
Isn’t that cherry picking? 17 years of Beltre vs 9 of Arenado? For a counting stat?
And looking at Fangraphs DEF metric, Beltre is worth 0.744 per game and Rolen is worth 0.88. Beltre played in nearly 900 more games.
KD = arrogant jerk
KD17 – Fielding percentage is not how to judge fielders. Bad fielders can avoid errors and good fielders can make Errors. In today’s analytics use OAA, and use RF/9 in other yrs. DRS and UZR can be used.
According to OAA, Devers is -3 OAA this year. Bad, but not like he needs to be moved. He makes a lot of errors but makes up for that with his excellent range, In fact, he has a 3.05 RF/9, in 2021, 4th among 3b. (RF/9 doesn’t treat errors as badly as other metrics), good for a 110 RF+.
The player to be moved on the Sox is Bogarts. -8 OAA (third worst in baseball), with a -12 DRS. This gets him a
And, “ Pitchers hate having weak defenders in top 3 fielding positions (3B, SS and 2B)”. According to baseball-reference, the top fielding positions, which teams are willing to sacrifice offense for, and which the site uses in its WAR framework, are C, SS, 2B, CF, and THEN 3B. Quite simply , 3B is a mostly offensive position, and Devers doesn’t have very awful defense there. There’s no reason to move him.
JD is more than likely gone when his contract ends. Age and the amount he will want are two huge factors.
Nice width too. Under 8 million for a top closer is a great deal.
How’s his spin rate post sticky stuff enforcement?
He was never a high spin rate guy, anyway. Fastball in the 61st percentile and curve in the 12th percentile. Sounds like a solid signing. Under market value.
Tough to say, as RPs have a much smaller sample. His spin rate have bounced around game to game, and suspiciously (in terms of how spin rate is measured) his fastball spin and curveball spin often spike up or down in the data at the same time, like to sets of lines always connected together. That hints that the manner spin is measured in different ballparks can vary. He does appear to have seen some overall drop since the change, but the sample is too small to be sure. Of note: Barnes has a 60th percentile fastball spin rate, so it isn’t as if he has been heavily dependent on top-level spin for his performance, and his curveball spin rate is actually just 12th percentile.
I’d like to credit that wild swing in spin rate to David Ross teaching him to throw 96 and hit his spot instead of 99 and possibly missing out over the plate. Is there a graph that shows his speed and spin rate together? It’d be interesting to actually see if there is a link there
One of the many reasons he got a pre-All Star Break deal is the fact that he’s not overly dependent on the foreign substances.
Even if there was a pitch that’s not breaking well for him with just the rosin, all things are equal, the opposing pitchers probably have the same issues as well.
He looks way different in a basketball jersey
This deal feels like two sides that wanted to get a deal done. I think it’s safe to say that Barnes was motivated to remain in Boston, in which case good for him!
Born, raised and went to college in CT.so yeah he wanted to stay with his hometown team.
Hey, I’m from his hometown, so I’m super happy. Bethel is pretty close to New York though.
little too much for a guy who nas mostly been okay but not stellar until this year
So your saying he’s not “nas”-ty.
well, maybe he is, but who knows. lot of Boston fans last year seemingly wanting to run him out of town.
Last year fans wanted to run the entire team out of Boston.
Relievers are by nature a volatile lot; Barnes’ performance this year is hardly a harbinger of things to come. So the contract is fair, and actually half the price of Kimbrel, to whom he can legitimately be compared with this year.
Good move on both sides.
Even The Monster only had a few good years, but he pitched a lot of innings for a reliever.
Seems like a very fair deal for both sides. Dude gets his security. The Sox aren’t super obligated if his performance falls off.
After a strong start, his numbers since mid-May are a bit closer to what he’s shown in prior seasons. Good but not elite. At 31, that’s what he is and probably will remain for the next couple seasons. A $9.375M AAV might be a bit high, but certainly nothing a very high payroll team like the Red Sox can’t afford.
Too much playing with start dates. If one wants to use that exact start date (5/16), then he has a 3.50. But his peripherals are much better than that with a 29/7 K/W in 18 IPs. He also has an OPS of .699 over that time frame, but with a .371 BABIP. That’s pretty good, so if that is all we get, that, imo, is still a good contract.
If we want to go for a more recent, but smaller, sample size, he has a 1.17 ERA, with a 10/3 K/W, and a .612 OPSa.
Unless he is feeling some arm pain that we don’t know about, it is hard to see this not being a good extension.
If Workman can transform himself the way that Barnes has, that would be nice. Obviously, different stuff, but also has had way too many walks.
Good deal for both sides. I like the ’24 club option for the RS.
According to FanGraph the price of 1 FWAR in free agency, last year was 8mil.
Matt Barnes FWAR (Last 3 years)
2019: 1.3
2020: -0.03 (prorated)
2021: 2.8 (prorated)
Three year running average 1.3 FWAR.
Good bargain for both sides. Slight discount from WAR, but player gets a bit of security through the end of the year.
Assuming Barnes doesn’t regress, it wouldn’t surprise me if Bloom dangles him in a trade next season and beyond for young position players.
Regression is an unknown variable of all FA contracts. He could blow his arm out tomorrow, or make the All-Star game the next 3 years.
WAR rate is an average that of all FAs. Many of them have regressed, so that 8Mil per WAR, factors that in.
I’ve been FG reader since day one and before that Tom Tango.
I don’t like WAR for RPs. It penalizes their small amount of IPs. In this case, I’d prefer to compare the contract to market prices for closers. He has less of a history than Hendricks and Kimbrel, for example, but his cost is half as much.
I agree that WAR is a substandard measure for short appearance players. What I trust more is consistent control ratios for multiple seasons.
It was just an easy measure, sorry it was ‘substandard’ to test this contract’s value vs other FA players. Not scientific at all.
If you want create a ‘consistent control ratios for multiple seasons’ value and compare it to the cost of other Free Agents in the past. I’d be glad to point out its limitations, for you.
No need for apologies here. It’s a discussion. With that said, I feel it’s a good contract for the RS.
Overall, not a bad deal. Barnes is at least an average reliever having a great year and at best has found a groove he can keep in for a short time. Predicting relievers is usually one of the harder guesses in baseball. Either way, unless he just forgets how to pitch entirely he was probably due for much more in money and years on the open market for any team close to contending that was desperate for late inning help. So in the end for the Sox he’ll either be another overpaid reliever or a nice bargain. Either way, doesn’t hurt the Sox.
Guy has always been pretty consistent and always takes the ball.
Not a bad signing.
Solid extension. Not crazy money, and one less hole to fill this winter
Barnes signs an extension? Uh-oh, Now he’s going to pitch like crap. Look what happened today, a walk as usual from prior years (and a hit.)
I’m 100% convinced he’s been having a good year because it’s a contract year. Happens quite a bit in baseball as you all know. They get their contract and suddenly things start slipping a tad. It’s the same guy out there but mentally not as much dog in them when the contract is signed.
I hear what everyone is saying that he probably gets more on the open market because of this stellar year so I guess this is cool. He just better not start walking guys again.. that totally peeves me.
Gary – I loved what you wrote. My only question is wouldn’t be better for everyone if he left and got paid more and then did his expected drop-off? He’s a closer with a 12 to 6 curve ball out pitch. That’s a disaster waiting to happen, especially with the new extra inning rule putting a runner on 2B and then 3B after the first bounced pitch.
That’s true but the thing is, who you plug in his place? I guess the best pitching contributors are from your own farm and rarely does signing big $$ free agent pitchers work out. What has worked out is what Bloom does and that’s to cull the scrap heaps. Be on the constant lookout for viable arms that are let go or haven’t reached potential in some way and are available.
So you have the conundrum, you draft college pitchers or do you draft the best position players, or a combo of both? Maybe use later picks on pitching and use the early picks for the best position players available?
Wow, great extension at that value. Pretty happy with this one as a Sox fan.
That is the true Nick Pivetta Red Sox Fans.He did this for years in Philly.You did get a good one in Rios.Pivetta will kill you guys eventually jsut be prepared.
A bad outing and here come the vultures. As Jesus said, you do no good in your own hometown. In other words, where you did some of your previous work they know your faults, mistakes, reputation and sometimes you need to start a fresh in a new place in order to have any effect.
As a Red Sox fan, I love Nick pivetta I think he’s been fantastic. Now Garrett Richards on the other hand, he’s going to have to start figuring it out or the leash will be pulled on a little tighter and perhaps yanked all together.
You will see I thought Pivetta was going to be a good pitcher.Like I said he will let you down eventually.He lets to many things bother him then he goes off the tracks.You will see I promise.
I’m fine with Pivetta. Folks need to consider his contribution relative to his salary. A 4.30 at minimum wage is a steal. I think the road to the playoffs is paved by an average rotation and good hitting. That is not necessarily the key to a playoff team, which revolves around aces. But that’s not what Pivetta is here for.
To be fair. Richards is nothing if not consistent. You know he’s going to give up four runs over five innings pretty much every time out
He will choke big time when playoffs get here.No good under pressure and god forbid if someone makes an error he will stomp around like a little baby.