The Rays made a pair of significant trades last month, shipping Shane Baz to Baltimore and Brandon Lowe to Pittsburgh on the same day. The Baz move probably means they’re going to dip back into free agency for a cheap back-end starter after signing Steven Matz to a two-year deal. It’s less clear what they have planned at second base, a position that Lowe has locked down (when healthy) for the past seven years.
Free agency doesn’t offer much excitement. It seems safe to assume the Rays aren’t signing Bo Bichette. The open market options beyond that include Willi Castro, Ramón Urías and Luis Rengifo. The biggest swings they could take are on the trade market.
Tampa Bay hasn’t been prominently tied to Brendan Donovan. They’ve had conversations with the Diamondbacks about Ketel Marte going back to the Winter Meetings. Those preliminary talks involved both Baz and Ryan Pepiot. That framework is obviously no longer an option, and while the Rays could make a compelling package involving Pepiot and controllable relief help, Arizona GM Mike Hazen indicated earlier this week that they could soon cut off talks regarding Marte altogether. Each of Jake Cronenworth, Nico Hoerner and Jazz Chisholm Jr. feel like long shot trade candidates.
If the Rays don’t find a clear answer outside the organization, where could they turn at the keystone?
Marc Topkin of The Tampa Bay Times wrote last month that Palacios was likely to be the top internal option. Acquired from the Cardinals over the 2023-24 offseason, the left-handed hitter turned in a .223/.346/.318 line over 316 plate appearances in his first season with the club. He batted .333 with a .396 on-base percentage last year but was limited to 17 games. Palacios fractured his right ring finger during Spring Training and began the season on the injured list. He returned in April but quickly suffered a right knee sprain that kept him out until September.
Palacios had missed two months late in the ’24 campaign with a sprain of the same knee. He has played in barely more than a third of the team’s games over the past two seasons. “(He’s) a player we really appreciate, but he’s got to prove healthy,” president of baseball operations Erik Neander told Topkin in December. “He’s certainly a candidate internally, but we’re going to give ourselves a little bit of time to sort through it.”
At his best, Palacios shows the makings of a potential high-OBP bat. He takes a lot of pitches and has good contact skills with solid line drive rates. Palacios doesn’t have huge power but has a .370 on-base percentage over five Triple-A seasons. While the Rays haven’t given him much of a look against lefty pitching in the big leagues, he has more than held his own in his limited opportunities.
Walls is a more well-known commodity. He’s a 29-year-old who owns a .195/.286/.298 career batting line in more than 1500 plate appearances. He’s not going to produce at the plate. The Rays love Walls as an up-the-middle defensive player. Public metrics have been bizarrely divided on his work. Statcast’s Outs Above Average grades him below average, yet Defensive Runs Saved annually rates him as a Gold Glove caliber infielder.
The Rays’ internal evaluation must align much more closely to the DRS view. They wouldn’t continue bringing Walls back via arbitration if they didn’t consider him a defensive asset. He’ll play next season on a $2.45MM salary and is controlled for 2027 via $3.1MM team option. Walls will get a lot of action in the middle infield, but he’s likely to begin the season on the left side of the bag.
Tampa Bay waived Ha-Seong Kim in August and used rookie Carson Williams as their shortstop for the final month of the 2025 season. The 22-year-old was overmatched, striking out 44 times and batting .172 in 32 games. Williams also struck out in more than 34% of his Triple-A plate appearances. He has power and is a plus defensive shortstop but is likely to head back to Triple-A to continue working on getting his contact rate to a manageable level.
That’d leave Walls as the only real choice to play shortstop in the early going. Free agency and the trade market are even thinner there than they are at second base. Walls could kick over to second base midseason if Williams plays his way back to the majors.
Position Change Hypotheticals
While the Rays generally have a stockpile of multi-positional players, that’s not so much a strength of the current roster. Jonathan Aranda came up as a second baseman but moved off the position for defensive reasons. He has only played 141 innings there in the big leagues and was a full-time first baseman last year. Aranda is a below-average athlete and runner who probably isn’t moving back up the defensive spectrum.
Chandler Simpson was a middle infielder in college but has been a full-time outfielder since being drafted in 2022. Topkin notes that the 25-year-old took some pregame infield drills late in the season, though it’s not clear if the Rays will continue that next year. Despite being one of the fastest players in the sport, Simpson isn’t an especially gifted defensive outfielder. Maybe that’ll lead the coaching staff to give serious consideration to testing him on the dirt in 2026. Simpson stole 44 bases while batting .295/.326/.345 with zero home runs in 109 games as a rookie.
I would be shocked if the Rays make a win-now move this winter.
They probably want to take one more year off and then they will promote the prospects and get back to the playoffs in 2027
A lot has to go right for that to happen.
Prepare to be shocked. It’s a 🔒
Richie’s injury last spring prematurely popped the balloon. Take 2! Hope he gets the nod.
Palacios by default. He still has a good OBP to be a starter.
The Tigers have several young 2B options. Seems like a match could be made.
Luis Arraez add a high obp guy to the lineup
IKF adds defense with some offense better version of Taylor walls
Arraez isn’t a 2B
Sure he is
Baseball reference lists Luis Arraez as a Second Baseman, First Baseman and Third Baseman
Over the course of his career he’s started the most games at 2B
338 games at 2B
257 games at 1B
124 games at DH
74 games at 3B
What he meant was, Arraez isn’t a 2B at the Major League level.
And where are you going to hit him? Because he has to hit behind Simpson or why have Simpson at all.
No he’s definitely a major league level 2B as again kindly point our
Now if you’re saying is he a good defensive 2B that’s a different argument. But he can definitely be put at 2B, defensive results may vary
And 9th. Double up on obp guys. Doesn’t have much power but can definitely get on base and hopefully get Simpson on base for #2. Best damn 9th hitter in the entire league
Or bat him 2nd. Simpson gets on baseball, steals, 2B, Arraez singles and Simpson scores. There’s definitely options.
Arraez has increadingly played 1B/DH because his defense sucks at 2B (what i have read). Not a 2B just someone who used to be one. Ask SD fans.
Arraez USED to be a second baseman. He’s a -10 defender or worse now.
Semantically, he technically can play 2B, but the Rays would never sign him to do that. It’s like saying Bryce Harper can play 2B.
He’s not even an acceptable level 2B. He’s a butcher as his stats attest. If you hit him 9th he’s again clogging up the bases for Simpson, who really only has one tool, and that’s running.
Arraez’s best position is DH, but it’s an awful waste of the slot as he has no power and no walks. DH and 1B have to provide way more than Arraez do to be productive.
He’s really a man without a position
The bat’s enough for 1B, but he’s awfully small for the position (which feels funny to say since he’s the same size as me, and I also play some 1B).
Among 1B with 300+ PA, Arraez had the 23rd-best wRC+. It’s not ideal, but it’s playable. Josh Bell got $7MM for basically the same offensive production (distributed WAY differently and with some green flags indicative of growth potential).
And, not that the Rays are going to sign him, but, just as a thought exercise, I would bat Arraez in the 5th-7th range on the Rays. I like the idea of a strikeout-proof hitter behind Caminero. Between the dingers and low OBP, whoever’s behind Cam gets to hit with the bases empty fairly often.
But, again, this only comes into play if they trade Diaz or Aranda.
There are only 30 teams. That means that Arraez was 8 slots lower than an average 1B. The only real hope is that he bats behind Simpson. Simpson gets on base, steals second, and Arraez either singles him home or makes a productive out to the right side advancing Simpson. That’s a pretty narrow value proposition. He has no power, is a double play danger wether at the plate or on first, can’t go first to third, and is always in play to get thrown out at home.
Mariners could trade Ryan Bliss or Lou Rivas to the Rays. If we get Ketel Marte or Donovan to play second base then Cole Young could be expendable.
Knowing the Rays, it’s probably going to be a year of .150 hitting with Walls, or they will sign Castro or someone equally as vanilla to a minor league deal Nd they will hit around .180. Sell the team (again)!!!
Castro would be a massive upgrade for Tampa…. Just had a not great year last year but proved wit the Twins he can be a productive and consistent big league hitter.
Walls again, is the worst news ever for a Rays fan. No one with a career 67 OPS+ should ever be wearing a big league uniform. He could have 10 gold gloves and not be worth the roster spot.
*See: Teodosio, Los Angeles Angels.
I agree. But back in the 1980’s or earlier he would have been seen as a viable option to start. It goes to show you how much knowledge the teams have gained since Bill James and the saber revolution came along. I grew up watching baseball in the 1970’s and rosters were littered with guys like Walls who couldn’t hit a lick.
Mets have a lot middle infielders , could trade for young pitchers
Gavin Lux is available.
For a reason
I think the rays are gonna continue to trade players for prospects.
Then sign guys to fairly inexpensive deals that they could trade at the deadline.
Everything seems to be pointing to them preparing for the new park and less so to 2026.
Probably the right decision if that’s what they do. The AL East is about as strong as it’s been top to bottom. The Yankees, Red Sox and O’s will all likely add another star player this offseason. It feels like the rays will finish last in the division.
I get the rays do more with less but this feels like the less won’t be enough.
I see Diaz being moved and perhaps another pitcher or two for prospects.
What new park?
The new park they are trying to get done.
The team has been trying to build a new stadium for 15+ years. The city/county has consistently rebuked this idea.
It would be nice if they try to compete with the new park, but they may get dud prospects and if they do sign someone decent for once, it could end up like a situation with Trout in Anaheim where there isn’t enough to help him. I would be surprised if ownership isn’t just going to pocket the money when stadium is done and not sign anyone, but I guess we won’t know until it all gets resolved. If they are actually going to sign class A free agents and get some decent prospects to build around Caminero and others, it might be worth another season of Walls flailing at pitches.
Well at least you have a new owner, so maybe there’s hope.
Baseball Reference has Diaz a free agent in 2026. Is that wrong?
Diaz is signed for 2026 and is controlled for 2027.
Just as long as they find an every day position for Chandler Simpson, the rest will fall into place.
Rays should have asked for Nick Gonzales in the Lowe trade.
Nah. Gonzales is a 1 WAR defense first player. Rays already have that.
I hope Chandler gets the nod. Sure, he hasn’t done it in a while, but it was his primary position at one point and he clearly isn’t comfortable in the outfield.
That’s my hope too. It isn’t like Lowe was a defensive wizard at 2b, plus his bat is more playable at 2b. It would also give them some flexibility to possibly add an Austin Hays type to add a little power
I don’t know what the Rays are going to do at 2B this year, but I would be surprised if they brought in someone who was just a no-bat, defense first second baseman (e.g., IKF, Bliss, N.Gonzalez, etc) or was an expensive option like Donovan or Marte. Maybe they find a good young 2B who doesn’t cost much to acquire via trade, but otherwise I would expect them to go with Palacios, C.Williams, or even moving Aranda to 2B and calling up T.Morgan to replace Aranda at 1B. The Rays know they aren’t making the playoffs in 2026, so why bother sacrificing cash or prospects to improve just a little bit in 2026?
They already have a no-bat defense first player who could play 2b. Taylor Walls.
With Morgan at first, does that mean Diaz is gone or at DH? I feel like if they are going to tank the season anyways, why not see what they can get for Yandy, but then again, seeing the amazing ‘prospects’ they got for Arozarena, Paredes, and others, maybe they should keep him.
Arranda is at 1b. Diaz is primarily a DH, who i think played a little more 1b once Arranda got hurt last year.
BR says Yandy had 37 games at first and 114 at DH.
Correct. But I’m saying I don’t think Yandy would have played nearly as many games at 1b if Aranda didn’t get hurt and miss the last 50 something games.
My theory is that the Rays could move Aranda to 2B and call up T.Morgan to replace him at 1B. I think Diaz gets moved at the Deadline, along with 1-2 of Ras, McClanny and Pep and several relievers.
I think Simpson would be the best fit at 2nd. In spite of his lack of power, with a few more walks he could be electric at the top of the lineup.
How about a guy like Davis Schneider from Toronto to platoon with the in house options? He is brutal against RH pitching but hits left handers pretty well and is average at second. He can also play left field at a roughly average level. He doesn’t really fit on the Toronto roster, so should not cost much to get him and if Toronto brings in a infielder he has even a less chance of getting at bats.
BTV thinks Schneider would cost a fair amount in trade, so probably not likely to happen with only 1ish fWAR production.
Rengifo seems like a Rays-type of move
I would hope their internal statistical analysis aligns more with defensive runs saved. OAA is a range stat similar to UZR, defensive runs saved is much more encompassing. Also 1 out in OAA is not equal to 1 run in DRS. Apples and oranges.
I would hope their internal statistical analysis aligns more with batting average.
Yeah you would Karen
Can’t win a game if you don’t score at least one run.