To some extent, Teoscar Hernandez has been a bit of an overlooked figure on the Blue Jays roster. He wasn’t part of the homegrown core of young talent, he isn’t exactly young himself since he turns 29 in October, and he wasn’t one of the major free agent signings that have played such key roles for the Jays in 2021 and (the team hopes) into the future. Hernandez did get a turn in the spotlight when he was voted into the American League’s starting All-Star lineup this past July, marking some overdue recognition of a player who has quietly been one of baseball’s best hitters over the last 26 months.
If “26 months” seems like something of an arbitrary timeline, it is because Hernandez has a pretty clear line of demarcation at almost the exact midpoint of his career. Prior to July 16, 2019, it wasn’t like Hernandez was a bad player, as he even hit 22 home runs for Toronto during the 2018 season. However, power was much pretty much all Hernandez had to offer over the first 971 plate appearances of his MLB career, as he swatted 42 home runs but batted only .231/.292/.447. This led to a 96 wRC+, and between that below-average offensive production and a very subpar outfield glove, there was some question about whether or not Hernandez could develop into anything more than a part-time player.
Needless to say, those questions have been answered. Hernandez hit a home run against the Red Sox in that July 16 game and then hit two more homers the next day, essentially heralding his arrival as a first-rate hitter. Over Hernandez’s last 916 plate appearances, he has hit 59 home runs and slashed .285/.343/.548 slash line. His 136 wRC+ since July 16, 2019 has been topped by only 12 qualified hitters in all of baseball, and he is also tied for eighth in slugging percentage in that timeframe.
Hernandez made some mechanical changes to his swing during a minor league demotion earlier in 2019, though there isn’t really a simple “lightbulb switched on” reason why Hernandez was suddenly much more productive. Looking at his numbers pre- and post-July 16, 2019, Hernandez’s walk rates have actually declined in the last 26 months, while his strikeout rates have gone from being almost league-worst to merely bad.
Hernandez always made plenty of hard contract, and with a .350 BABIP during the productive half of his career (and a .296 BABIP beforehand), there is some level of good fortune involved in Hernandez’s rise. That said, Hernandez has helped himself by making more contact in general and hitting more line drives, with his above-average baserunning allowing him to translate that hard contact into hits.
Turning to the defensive side, Hernandez has worked to become a respectable outfielder after struggling so badly in the field earlier in his career. Over 926 innings (707 in right field, 212 in left) this season, Hernandez has a +0.1 UZR/150 and +1 Outs Above Average, while the Defensive Runs Saved metric still gives him a -2 score. While a Gold Glove probably isn’t in Hernandez’s future, he has at least proven that he isn’t a DH-only player — which could prove important to his future earning potential.
Hernandez was arbitration-eligible for the first time this season, and avoided arbitration by agreeing to a $4.325MM salary. He’ll get a sizable raise coming this winter, and then another in the 2022-23 offseason before becoming eligible for free agency following the 2023 campaign. Should Hernandez keep up his level of offense next year, he should earn somewhere in the neighborhood of $17MM in 2022-23 before hitting the open market prior to his age-31 season.
That is, unless the Blue Jays keep him off the open market by working out a contract extension. With two-plus years remaining of control over Hernandez, the Jays aren’t in any immediate rush to make a decision one way or the other, and naturally quite a few other matters will need to be addressed in the interim. Re-signing impending free agents Marcus Semien and Robbie Ray seem to be a priority for the club, and one would imagine the Jays will make a hard push to extend Jose Berrios (a free agent after 2022) given how they surrendered such a notable prospect package to acquire him from the Twins at the trade deadline. Elsewhere on the extension front, Toronto might also look to land some long-term cost certainty over cornerstones Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette, even though both are already controlled through the 2025 season.
In short, Hernandez might find himself somewhat overlooked again, if the Jays are content to go year-by-year. However, there is some logic in the team exploring a longer deal with the slugger right now. While the Blue Jays are one of the league’s best offensive teams, the lineup will take a big hit if Semien leaves, and the future depth has been a bit depleted — Cavan Biggio has struggled through an injury-plagued year, Rowdy Tellez was traded to the Brewers, and top prospect Austin Martin was dealt in the Berrios swap.
Speaking of the prospect ranks, the Toronto farm system has plenty of intriguing infielders and pitchers, but the Jays are short on young outfielders ready to make an impact at the big league level. While that could change in the two years before Hernandez hits free agency, the lack of young outfield depth was one reason the Jays felt compelled to sign George Springer this past offseason. There isn’t anyone immediately coming to push for Hernandez’s role, and in any case, Hernandez would seem to have a lot more job security than the much more inconsistent Randal Grichuk and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. Grichuk is signed through 2023 but has provided below-average offense in Toronto, while Gurriel is controlled through 2024 but has been part of trade rumors in the past.
Only Hernandez himself (and maybe his agents at Republik Sports) would know the answer to this subject, but the outfielder also might be eager to lock in the first big payday of his professional career. Hernandez made more in 2021 than he did in the rest of his career combined, as he received only a $20K bonus when first signing with the Astros back in 2011. While $7MM+ in arb earnings is lined up for 2022, Hernandez might not want to run the risk of injury or a downturn in performance next season, so he could be open to a deal of fewer additional years, but maybe a higher average annual value in 2024 or 2025.
Grichuk’s four-year/$47MM deal in April 2019 is the only major multi-year extension of the Ross Atkins era, so there isn’t much of a hint about how this front office might approach a Hernandez extension, or if such a deal is even truly on their radar. The trade that brought Hernandez to Toronto is already one of the canniest moves of Atkins’ tenure as GM, and that trade will only look better if a deal can be worked out so Hernandez can continue to be a big part of the Blue Jays lineup for years to come.
Teoscar is definitely an under-appreciated asset on the Blue Jays but I think that trend is going to continue. Between Semien, Ray, Berrios and possibly a long term extension for Vladdy or Bo, the Blue Jays will be quickly approaching payroll purgatory. If the Jays can somehow find a team to take Grichuk’s full salary off their books then maybe a Teoscar extension makes sense, but getting a deal done with him is probably priority #5 or #6 right now for Toronto. If they end up losing Semien or Ray to free agency then the probability of a Teoscar extension goes up but I get a feeling they are content with him riding out his two years of arbitration given all of their other upcoming, expensive payroll decisions to make. Not a bad problem to have. If Toronto can somehow sneak into the playoffs this year, they are going to be a tough out. They have the talent to make a serious World Series run this year.
Is the money that tight for them the next 2 years? Payroll that low? They didnt get a discount for playing in Buffalo?
Agreed. And if somehow Springer could stay healthy for this last stretch, would be nice. Teoscar is a very underrated asset considering all the star power the Jays have. That bat and well above speed combo is something the Jays rarely had, if ever.
He reminds me of a Kansas City royal type of player when they won the World Series, again, the power and speed combo is great to have. I really like how our Jay players all seem to be athletes pretty much, even Vladdy can run a bit, puts in a lot of effort around the bases.
If our bullpen would be a quarter better then it has been, we probably would be looking at a wild card spot as of now.. Ryu vs Cole today, would be huge win to get, the ball would really get rolling if the Jays got this one. Keep the wins coming!! And I hope the teams above us continue to lose!! Let’s go Jays.
I doubt Ryu will be pitching two days in a row, although Montoyo has done stupider things this year.
Oh, I’m sorry. Matz that is. Thanks for the correction.
Who happens to be sporting a 1.65 ERA since August 4th.
Awesome! I hope he can keep that Yankee lineup in check, while us getting to Cole.. Should be tough. Would be a big win. Hoping for a 4 game sweep if we can steal tonight’s game! Lol. Really would be great to steal a win vs their ace.. Let’s go Jays!!!! We’re coming!!! (Hopefully) lol.
A few more of those Yankee Stadium special homeruns will do it. Yesterday all four homers were a couple rows deep in the right and left field corner, not many parks they are out of.
Yes sir, was thinking the same exact thing. Especially opposite field, but then I get scared Cole will pitch us inside with the heat. Not sure what the numbers are, but I think the Jays do a great job going opposite field.. Yankees may know that.
But then we have the Teoscars and Semiens of the world, who seem to be great at turning on inside pitches, middle-in. The Guys need to be focused, this game is very important imo.
“There isn’t really a simple “lightbulb switched on” reason”
A completely different swing and completely different timing mechanic are pretty tangible reasons, but I guess that would require watching actual baseball as opposed to a stat sheet, and why would anyone writing for a baseball website ever do that?
In related news, it’s amazing what 50 points of batting average will do for a batting line. It’s almost like it’s valuable or something.
He’s turned himself into a fine breaking ball hitter, those first few years he just sold out for the fast ball and looked overmatched.
WATCH TEH GAEMEZZZ!!1!
haha I love how angry you got (for no reason) and yet provide no proof or context to your own assertion.
Semien and Ray have probably priced themselves out for the Jays. They’ll get QO’s. With two good prospects for Berrios, they better make a solid attempt to lock him up. Jays should make teoscar a priory long term. No rush to lock up Vlad or Bo till after next season.
SS market is still pretty stacked this year.
I think a team will get crazy and overpay for Ray (looking at you angels) but Semien probably gets what he deserves, which is 5/120, which shouldn’t take the jays out of the equation.
Toronto doesn’t need to sign this guy to an extension now. Pay him whatever he earns in arb the next two years, see what kind of production he provides, and then they can always pay market value in 2023. Its not really a pressing issue. Good writeup, however.
Exactly on all counts. I can’t understand this great fear of arbitration, especially with a team like the Jays, who have a LOT of money. Pay the man his money for the next 2 years, and if you can agree after that, fine; if not, move on. Long term contracts tend to cause complacency in many many instances; spare me the Mad Max exceptions..
If they lose the player after two years, they have the resources to fill the gap.
I think it’s more once a player has 1 year left why sign the extension and not test market. Smart money signs him now, he is essentially what they lost in Jose Bautista with a little more speed. Sign him to a 5 yr extension that starts this off season which takes him to 34 I believe and he still has a good chance at a decent 3 or 4 year deal after that aswell
With the Blue Jays offense, Ryu, Ray and Berrios is a pretty formidable starting 3 should Toronto sneak into the playoffs. Only the White Sox have similar 1-2-3 starters and the White Sox have a better bullpen. Should Toronto make the wildcard, I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see an ALCS of Chicago vs. Toronto.
The White Sox also have offensive talent; they just need to get a little more consistent production in September to get them all on a roll. As a Red Sox fan, it’s painful to write this but Toronto is a better team than Boston right now and I see them overtaking Boston for the final wildcard spot so long as their bullpen can hold it together.
Hats off to the Red Sox… Not too many expected them to be doing what they’ve done this year. That Alex Cora, seems to really get the best out of his players I’m guessing.. Don’t really keep up with the Red Sox that much, but they’ve really been tough as hell all year.
WSox bullpen looks much better on paper than in reality until proven otherwise. They likely need home field to have a shot at beating the Astros in ALDS (assuming that matchup holds). Can’t recently recall a division having 4 teams as good as AL East this season. Shaping up to be quite a WC battle……less the amazing Rays!
Teoscar’s change of swing is a lightbulb switched moment. He was getting killed by fastballs and had to guess early in his MLB career. Then he decide to try Bo Bichette’s 2 strike swing and it worked for him. The leg virtually disappeared for all counts. He is stringneniughbthatbhebcannstull hit homeruns without a big leg lift.
Credit is run rightfully given to his improved defence. He was as terrible now he is passable. He has a strong arm but lousy accuracy. He has good speed now but the quickness isn’t there to steal a lot of bases. Once the speed goes he’ll strictly be a DH.
“Strong enough that he can still”
Apple auto correct strikes again.
There’s no reason Teo can’t continue to be a corner outfielder into his late 30s like so many before him. Experience will compensate as he loses speed.
Am I counting wrong or are there 13 players above him (vs 12)? Also, I’m still surprised the Jays traded Martin.
Agreed. I like the Berrios pickup but it was an overpay trading Martin.
In no way is Hernendez a bad player, in fact he’s very clearly valuable to the Jays, and would be so for any club. However, players offering somewhat similar skillsets are not necessarily hard to find in today’s game. Again, he’s clearly a very good player, but rushing an extension would seem a bit “knee-jerky” imo.
Hernandez will enter free agency as a 31 year old following the 2023 season, there is absolutely no reason to sign him to even a Randall Grichuck type of extension. If the offense continues to play then look to signing a new deal for ’24 but if I’m the Blue Jays i look towards locking up Guerrero before Hernandez
Trade him and get a real starter for the front of the rotation. Like the Jay’s did with the mcgrif trade in the 90s big league talent for big league talent.
And after making the now famous Alomar/Carter for McGriff/Fernandez trade, wife of then Blue Jays GM Pat Gillick asked him “will you get home before you screw up the team any further?”