Carlos Correa’s top priority is getting the Astros back to the World Series, so while the star shortstop’s free agency will be a hot topic once the season is over, Correa doesn’t want his 2021 campaign to end any time soon. However, Correa did address his pending trip to the open market while speaking with NBC Sports Chicago’s Gordon Wittenmyer, and seemed to hint that a reunion in Houston seems unlikely.
The two sides had talks about an extension last spring, with the Astros reportedly floating offers of six years/$120MM and five years/$125MM. Even at the time, however, Correa had a dim view of how serious the Astros were, saying “there were not really any negotiations,” and that the Astros “made it clear to me they don’t believe in long contracts, they don’t believe in big contracts.”
In his more recent remarks, Correa again addressed those preseason contract talks, saying “It was like, ’Take it or leave it; this is what we’ve got.’ And now my value has gone up. If they didn’t want to meet my price in spring training, now that I led the league in [Baseball Reference] WAR at 7.2 and I’m in the playoffs helping the team, I don’t know if they’ll meet my price now.”
Earlier this week, Houston owner Jim Crane said that he feels his team still has “a chance” to retain Correa, and that the Astros will “definitely be in the mix” with the shortstop’s other suitors. The Astros haven’t signed a contract longer than five years during Crane’s tenure, and while the owner indicated that “things can change” on that front, Correa seems to have his eye on a much longer commitment.
Correa celebrated his 27th birthday only a few weeks ago, making him a rare top-tier free agent who is hitting the market at a younger age. “A lot of people don’t believe in 10-year contracts and in long-term deals and all that. But when you look at most of the 10-year contracts they’ve been giving out, the long-term deals, they’re players that are 31, 30, 32,” the shortstop noted. “I’m going to be 27 on my first year. I’m young, I’m healthy, and I perform. So we’ll see what happens.”
While another championship ring would perfectly cap things off for Correa, 2021 has already been an excellent platform year for the impending free agent. Shohei Ohtani was technically the overall bWAR leader due to his unique two-way contributions, but as Correa noted, the shortstop did indeed lead all regular position players in bWAR while hitting .279/.366/.485 with 26 home runs over 640 plate appearances. That also marks his highest number of PA since 2016, as Correa avoided the injuries have hampered him for the previous four years and missed only a week due to a stint on the COVID-related injury list.
Between his youth, All-Star production, and possibly with some doubts silenced about his durability, Correa projects as arguably the top free agent on the market this winter, let alone the top option in a loaded class of shortstops. In addition to his offensive numbers, Correa pointed out that he also led all players in defensive bWAR (2.9) in 2021, “so when you talk about shortstops that can do both things at an elite level, I think you should mention my name.”
While it remains to be seen just how high the bidding will get, Correa stressed that “I want to win. Money’s great and everything, but I don’t want to be miserable in the clubhouse, losing every day.” Wittenmyer’s piece was written through the lens of Correa as a potential fit with the Cubs, so the fact that the Cubs are coming off a losing season and may have more rebuilding to do might rule them out as a legitimate contender to sign Correa this winter. For what it’s worth, Correa did talk glowingly about a pre-draft workout at Wrigley Field in 2012, though the Cubs never got a chance to pick Correa since the Astros quickly pounced on him as the first overall selection.
Talented player, _____ _____ ,bound for free agency has a career year. How do these guys keep on doing it?
You think its out of the norm for a 26yo to have a great year?
Surprising for Correa though
how so?
I would’ve thought it was obvious, but let me give it a shot.
From 2017-2019, Correa averaged 98 games; this year, 148.
From 2018-2020, he had a 110 OPS+; this year, 131.
For his entire career, he’s averaged a consistent 2/1 K/W; this year, 1.55.
FWIW, I think he is the most talented of the shortstops. But I think he will quickly revert to missing a lot of games, and more like a 125 OPS+ guy than a 131 guy.
@JoeBrady Ok well none of his injuries are reoccurring, which is the biggest indicator of future injuries, he’s also been healthy for the past 2 season.
Of course, he’s OPS+ is going to be lower in years he’s injured, and are you really averaging OPS+? He has had OPS+ of 135/124/155/137/131 so let’s not pretend like he can’t or hasn’t done it.
“For his entire career, he’s averaged a consistent 2/1 K/W; this year, 1.55.” <— this entire line holds absolutely no predictive value and I don’t know why you would think this help, also he was either injured, not called up or a global pandemic interfered with 4 season and we really don’t know yet how consistent his k/bb will be. Furthermore, his walk % stayed pretty much normal and he dropped his strike-outs by a few % points.
Your cherry-picking number in an attempt to fit your argument, you average out his OPS+ with the injury years and completely ignore the fact that by the standard of OPS+ this is his 4th best seasons.
As a person, I don’t really like what I know about him, he’s lack of contrition really annoys me but he’s still a hell of a ball player, the guy isn’t Nick Johnson. Your entire argument seems to exists solely on the margins.
I admittedly cherry-picked in this case because there is no margin for error.
For example, I’d like to see the RS go after Syndergaard for maybe something like $80M/4. I don’t cherry-pick on Syndergaard because his upside is as high as his downside.
For a player like Correa, or any player getting paid top-1% money, there shouldn’t any risks other than age.
My favorite example was Pujols, because I mentioned it at the time. Pujols had gone from an OPS of 1.101 to 1.011 to .906, at an age where decline should be expected. So my question at the time was, “are you buying vintage Pujols or are you simply buying a 1B with a .906, which will certainly decline”.
If I was looking at Correa, I think I’d 100% certain look at the fact that 2 of his last 4 years had OPS’s of .728 and .709, and that he’s only played 150 games once. It would be foolish, imo, to sign him thinking that is it impossible for him to repeat the bad years.
@JoeBrady You are always going to get a margin of error with big contracts but these big contracts are insured and that matters for flexibility. Correa’s risk is mitigated by his age, being only 27 when the contract starts. Everybody other then Art Morneo knew that LAA was buying a first baseman that had his best years well behind him and you just can’t compare these 2, Pujols was 32 when that contract started, it was predictably a land mine, a far better comp is either Lindor or Seager.
.
Why would you base your decision on 2 out of 7 years? Ignoring the fact that 1 of those years he was injured and the other was a weird late start covid season where many guys had off years. And again, you are cherry picking numbers, you picked the arbitrary line of 150 games, and ignored that he just played 148 games (+ the playoffs), last year he played in all but 2 games, and his first year was a late callup leaving just those 3 previously mentioned injury years in the middle, which I don’t mean to downplay because they do matter.
Perhaps you watch more Astros games then I and you see something I don’t but the reasons not to give him that big contract are not in the numbers. Would I give him Lindors contract, probably not because as you pointed out injury history does matter, but as a hitter Correa has been about 11% better then Lindor over the course of there careers.
I readily admit that I am cherry-picking. It’s part of my analysis process. If I like a guy, I try to rig it so I can find a reason to not like him, and vice versa. If I like a player, and can’t find a reason to dislike him, even with rigging the numbers, then I am probably right to like him.
When I did that with Betts and his new contract (I’m a RS fan), outside of aging off, there were simply no risks. Same with Machado, and he’s a guy I really dislike. But I couldn’t identify a single risk.
If it helps, I had already drafted Story early, but had enough respect for Correa that I drafted him when he fell. But if there was a futures market in the betting world, I’d bet that Lindor has a higher WAR than Correa over the next ten years. Correa is better, but I’d bet that Lindor plays more games.
Loved the back and forth. I don’t see any big money long term deals until there’s an agreement with the MLBPA. There also are so many shortstops available. The Mets overpaid big-time and most other teams will learn from it. Unless the new agreement heavily favors big market clubs so the Yankees can spend, how many teams will bid up things?
Not sure how it’s really cherry picking that much.. he’s had two bad years (for someone considered a superstar), and missed significant time in three of his seven seasons… even his good year last year his WRC+ was 24th in MLB, which is obviously strong but not elite… those are factors that should prevent teams from giving a ridiculous Lindor type contract… but someone will be willing to do it based on his age and obvious talent… high risk high reward for sure… wonder where he’ll end up
Is the narrative that said player signs a mega-deal and then flops afterwards? Even a broken clock is right twice a day.
Yeah, Correa, don’t sign with the Cubs, or you’ll be miserable! Lol
The Ricketts are “broke” remember? Their father probably cut them off. It certainly isn’t their own money they’re using. It’s Joe Ricketts money. Tom,Todd, and Karen(I don’t know her actual name) are silver spoon spoiled kids. I can’t see them spending more than 35-40 mil. Probably on aging pitchers. That won’t improve from their Starting rotation this year. Davies goes elsewhere. Leaving only Hendricks, Alzolay and Justin Steele are all but locked in. Hendricks will be the only one for sure locked in.
The Cubs don’t need to spend money right now, they need to stock up on young talent. Sorry if you don’t want to hear it, but the Cubs need to go through the full rebuild process. I guess all the 2015 bandwagon Cubs fans will have to find a new team to root for for awhile.
Hey come on, it’s established fact that every rich person works hard, starts from the same position as everyone else and definitely doesn’t inherit money.
The same Ricketts who had the Cubs among the top 5 in payroll for 5 years, rebuilt Wrigley Field and purchased half the neighborhood? They cut salary temporarily and it was a smart move. Needed a new direction, give it a couple years, man.
Why are Cubs fans so stupid? Cubs fans should know better than anyone else in recent memory. THEY WON BY TANKING!!!! The blueprint is set. You can slobber all over yourself calling the owner cheap and look stupid, but there’s no reason to spend money when rebuilding.
Tom Ricketts at this time is only concerned with turning Wrigleyville into Rickettsville. He only cares about making the Cubs, ‘competitive enough’, to draw fans. After that, it’s all about making money.
Spending money doesn’t hurt their farm at all. I don’t understand this argument. No need to tank in the NL Central. They will have a top 10 pick next year and already stockpiled a ton of under 21 athletes. They will hopefully hit on a couple. They need to give Ortega, Schwindel, and Wisdom a shot at starting next year. Then add in Brennen Davis, and a hopefully healthy Nico and Madrigal. They need some veteran bullpen arms to go along with several young electric arms. Then Sp, Sp, Sp and more sp. Why on earth can’t they try to sign solid veteran starting pitching to short term contracts and compete?
Couldn’t agree more. It sucks but it’s just reality. The future is bright with Brennan Davis coming up next year.
Now that they’ve built Pottersville (or Biffs World with all the filty lucre they accumulated from gleaning the Sports Almanac), why not go git Correa, Stroman, Story, and Castellenos? No more digging in dumpsters, time to go to Sizzler. GO Cub Go!
No don’t want to wait. Spend now! Do it Jed. No more Dumpster Diving. Let’s Gooo! Carlos Correa and Narcus Stroman dolls that would be suhweet
As
Without looking, I’d say 9/10 owners (at least) are silver spoon types. Highly doubt any of these people grew up poor
I’d argue go get playoff experienced veteran pitchers on short term contracts. There are several hitting free agency next year and you have tons of payroll flexibility. If you are 7 back at the deadline guess who you can trade for good prospects? Use your money to try to compete now and if it doesn’t work add prospects. Just don’t get locked in to stupid 6-7 year contracts. You don’t have to tank to add minor league talent.
Actually, there are more self-made American millionaires than there are millionaires who inherited their wealth. And every one of the (few) rich folks I know work very hard at their jobs/business.
I personally know at least four of them. They are not buy-a-baseball-team rich, but they are each worth millions and all started with very little.
Someone out there is willing to give Correa the $250M-$300M+ contract that he wants, whether or not he actually deserves it.
Maybe with all the money the Astros save themselves by not re-signing either him or Greinke they will be able to offer one of the other shortstops in free agency enough so he can replace Correa.
Then if they have enough left over, they can also re-sign Verlander to a modest 1-year deal after paying him so much the last 2 years.
Actually both are going to Detroit
I have thought the same thing, but Correa said he wanted to win so that kind of eliminates them.
You are right, but after a miserable 9-24 start the Tigers were several games over .500 and had a winning overall record vs playoff teams. They have a excellent young corps of pitchers and have a couple stud bats (Greene, Tork) due up next year. Add a couple hi quality FA and post season isn’t out of the question.
It eliminates the cubs too. Maybe the White Sox move him to 2nd. Or even Anderson to 2nd. Possibly trade Anderson. Don’t think he goes to Chicago at all though. Maybe Anaheim. Maybe in a deal similar to Nick Castellanos. 4 years. With an opt out after two. Plus the cubs need to focus on pitching. They have decent lineup not great but Davis and Madigral will improve it. Davis likely makes the opening Day Roster. If he doesn’t, it’s another Kris Bryant situation.
I wouldn’t rule out Detroit at all. They have a solid core trying to establish themselves. They made bold trades and paid up for talent during their last run.
Steve: As a Michigan resident I hope you are right about Le Tigres. And I love your singing voice. 😉
Yeah don’t stop believing. Hes going to search for the singer born and raised in South Detroit!
Don’t sleep on my Seattle Mariners- the fan base may have mixed feelings about Correa due to their personal interpretation of the “cheating scandal,” but the FO has maintained they will be aggressive in their spending and trading this offseason.
The M’s had a terrific month of Sept that saw them get into a tie for the WC2 after their sweep of the A’s in game 158. Their young rebuilt team and 2nd rank farm system puts them in a good position to take it to the next level.
Critics of the Mariners 2021-2022 offseason plans will point to this years teams large negative Run Diff in the 2021 season, but that deficit came from a couple of bad losses early in the season when half their 6 man rotation was injured and the back end of the BP was imploding. Since those bad losses to CWS and a healthy Padres lineup (5/24) the M’s actually had one of the best records in the AL and they’ve fixed their pen.
A healthy Kyle Lewis the 2020 ROY will help make up for Seager’s losss. Top CF prospect Kelenic had a fantastic final 5-6 weeks of the season- 8 HR’s 21 RBI’s w 31 Hits 14 BB’s from 9/26- onwards. Current #1 OF prospect in MLB, #2 overall, Julio Rodriguez will either make the team out of ST or by end of April. The farm is loaded with top pitching prospects and their payroll is at roughly $35M. If Seattle can convince Correa to play 2B (and sign a SP) they will be in a good place to improve on their 90 Win season.
Kelenic’s 8 HR’s and 21 RBI’s from 9/26 onwards would be really good eh!? Haha. Those numbers are from 8/26 onwards haha
The fact that he could move to 2b and /or 3b should help. The Sox wouldn’t trade TA, he’s one of the team leaders and signed long-term but I could see them deploying a time share arrangement around the IF to keep everyone fresh. Still think the Cubs ought to sign Correa though, especially if he digs the city and pizza
@dragonfan
I have not heard anything since the season started from Hinch, either positive or negative about any Houston player. I’m wondering if he doesn’t want anything to do with the players that got him suspended. Yes, Correa played for him, and that might be why Detroit won’t be interested.
@stymeedone
Your statement is ridiculous. He will not talk about another player in regards to FA during the season. I think Hinch would welcome the 7.2 WAR when the Tigers have a negative WAR last season at the shortstop position.
Hinch has a big say in who the Tigers are going after. I am willing to bet he was told when he signed with the Tigers that they were going to really spend soon.
I agree with Houston management. Don’t sign players for more than five years. Yes, Correa is still approaching his peak prime, but that still leaves whoever signs him with five post-prime years (at best).
They signed Altuve to a 7 year contract.
Pedro Leon has been shifted to short stop in the minors, it seems he is not the heir apparent once Correa leaves. He’s probably a full year at short away from playing in the bigs so I expect a stop gap contract for a free agent or possibly playing Diaz at short for a year.
Jeremy Pena just had a terrific year and was apparently MLB ready defensively coming out of college. If Correa walks, they’re probably slotting him in.
Detroit
I think it will be a l/t disappointment, but this is as good a fit as you can find. Detroit finished 29th in SS OPS. Adding Correa, Tork and Green should raise Detroit to maybe a top-5 offense, and their pitching should be in the top half.
If you sign Correa, and bring up Tork and Green at the end of April, I wouldn’t be surprised at a .550 team.
Didn’t realize Correa is such a WAR nerd, These damn sabremetricians ruining the game!!!!
Google the interview the gave last week to MLBN…. he knows all the numbers. Prefers OPS+ to OPS, etc
He and his agent know all the numbers that make him look better.
Excellent statement. They’re preparing for the offseason argument to net him a contract as either the highest paid SS, or the highest AAV. After all, he’s a Borasssss client.
He’s gonna get paid, and I sincerely hope it’s not by the Yankees, which some pundits are predicting. I also saw a Miami prediction, so that’s laughable.
I’m concentrating on winning right now and don’t want to be a distraction, but yes lets talk about free agency! Nice!
Bingo
Please… dear God… NO to Correa to the Yankees.
WAR. Huh? What is it good for? Asking for a friend
Absolutely nothing
Whoever signs him better have a solid backup SS.
[Wink]
Anyone else notice a trend that players have their career years in their walk year? Look at the Giants’ FAs, Correa, several pitchers, etc. Makes one wonder if there’s legitimacy to the argument that they are not in 100% after signing major contracts, ie: Lindor
How about ie: Barry Zito
He checked out completely after signing one of the first mega-deals. He wasn’t some “32 yr old” slugger, he was 27 and in his prime.
bucsfan0004
How about ie: Barry Zito
==================================
Actually, Zito was exactly the same pitcher for SF as he was for Oakland. He had a weak 4.44 FIP in his last four years with Oakland, with an awful 1.77 K/W. In his first four years with SF, he had a 4.52 FIP and a 1.59 K/W.
The problem wasn’t that he was a very mediocre pitcher with SF. The problem was that SF didn’t know that he was a very mediocre pitcher when they signed him.
@JB
Tomato, tomah-to. Zito never reached an ERA+ above 100 as a Giant. In Oakland, never below 100. Point being at age 28 after he signed his mega deal, he still had the physical ability to improve. Instead he took the money and said this is who i am, a guy who walks a million batters and plays guitar
It’s called a salary drive. And, you can bet it’s a thing. Players are more motivated to do the things they should be doing to improve and/or maintain their skills. And, more motivated to not do the things they shouldn’t be doing (like staying out all night drinking).
Its not even doing things like drinking all night. Take Ryan Fitzpatrick for example, signed a huge contract mid-season many years ago. He went and started buying up real estate in Arizona – couldn’t even wait til the end of the season. And he went from highly productive QB to a bum in the span of a season.
TroyVan
It’s called a salary drive. And, you can bet it’s a thing.
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I’m not sure why anyone would bother to deny it. Everyone in here would do the same thing, and probably has done the same thing.
Just for example, since I am of a certain age, if I were to buy a long-term care contract, and my rates were dependent on the results of a physical a month from now, I’d be eating chicken, eggs and tuna 24/7, and running 4 miles a day.
If I were a MLB player in his walk year, I’d hire a personal chef, a personal trainer, and have a state of the art fitness center in my house.
Another factor is the pressure of performing at a level commensurate with the amount of money they signed for. Not everyone is up to it.
Yankees should sign him seeing as they got nothing out of SS at all this year. Can’t lose nothing to sign him honestly lets see if Cashman actually does something productive for a change.
If it takes a 10-year deal to sign Correa, I don’t see the Yankees doing it. They have Stanton’s contract until at least the 2027 season & Cole’s lengthy deal. I doubt they give another long deal out. This isn’t the George Steinbrenner Yankees. The Yankees will look elsewhere for a shortstop if the asking price remains that high
And probably Judge’s. And Sanchez’s (just teasing)
Perhaps the Yankees would like to take Lindor off the Mets’ hands. 😉
This jerk has bleated loud and long in denial of the Astros’ cheating scandal, which, among other things, cost Judge the MVP award in 2017. And you want him in the same dugout as Judge?
No effing thank you.
Don’t the Yankees have a pretty strong history of breaking the rules?
Nope, only accusations and none war what the Astros have been doing for years.
But, you can keep doing the straw man dance. It’s cute.
They don’t have anything like the record of being convicted by the Commissioner’s office of a teamwide cheating scheme and ADMITTING their guilt as a condition of not being punished.
Remind me when a Yankee GM and manager were both suspended for a year and later fired for a cheating scandal and their franchise forfeited four draft picks and paid a $5M fine. I don’t recall that happening.
There’s a qualitative difference between juicing, which is an individual violation that’s been found on all 30 teams at one time or another, and a team project like the Astros engaged in.
And I notice your whataboutism doesn’t in any way claim that the Astros were not cheating. That’s good. They were. They admitted it.
The difference between the cheating teams (Yankees, Redsox, and Astros) has a name, Jim Crane. He forced his players to tell on themselves because he was afraid of Manfred. Without Crane’s cooperation, Manfred couldn’t prove anything and he would have faced the almighty MLBPA. The Yankees and Redsox have “better” owners.
Hee Hee Yankees breaking the law, breaking the law
I ditto Mr. Person. Well said, sir.
I’m guessing Yankee fans would be fine with him wearing the pinstripes if they thought he’d help them win a World Series. It’s been awhile….
10000000% no. I can only speak for myself, but I would not be anywhere near fine with the Yankees signing Correa. If they’re going to shop at the very top end of the FA SS market, Seager over Correa 100 out of 100 times.
Didn’t cost Judge anything. Research shows the cheating harmed the Astros and Altuve didn’t cheat. Do you have any factual arguments to support your vitriol?
I’d love to hear more about this “research.”
Nah, you like too much the trash talking. Besides, you wouldn’t let the facts spoil a good story. However, try Google, a guy took the time to listen to all the audios available from Minute Made Park games and listened for the trash can bangs. Conclusions? The cheating harmed the Astros, Altuve, Reddick, and Kemp didn’t cheat.
So this “research” is nothing but unfounded speculation?
If you are happy stay there.
Raft, I’m sorry to say, but that’s not true. They said that Altuve wanted nothing to do with it, but yet he still participated. He benefitted less than most of the other Astros players did (due to his feelings about the whole operation), but yet he still did. And he rode that season to a 5yr $150m contract. I don’t care if he liked the scheme or didn’t, the fact is he still participated in it… regardless if he benefitted the least or the most, he still did, and he’s still a pos for it.
You are misinformed. He didn’t participate and he didn’t want to participate. Furthermore, he got mad at his team mates because the banging was distracting. In the end, Altuve was right, the cheating caused more harm than benefits to the Astros batters and the system was dropped.
Agreed don’t sign with Seattle please anywhere else is fine. Never forget your a trashstro.
Didn’t you just have a pitcher get busted with sticky stuff and then come back and get busted with PEDs? Not to mention employing ARod, Cruz, and Cano. Perhaps you shouldn’t be throwing rocks in your glass house?
Cheaters never prosper (well, actually in Manfred’s MLB)l they do)
at least this isnt the NFL
Yeah they just let the rapists back in the League period! Right Antonio?!
Just ask Gaylord Perry. He cheated his way to Cooperstown yet no one cared.
Do you not remember contracts in the 90s with PEDs? It most definitely does pay to cross the line in Major League Baseball.
Only for as long as MLB and the Commissioner’s Office allow it… then they’ll go oh my goodness we have a problem and now we need to fix it… not once thinking that they allowed the problems to manifest and grow to the points they got to (whether it be PEDs or sticky stuff).
C’mon Tigers, let’s get him.
it’s time to start adding pieces.
LOL, oh …are you serious?
It isn’t really that far-fetched. The Tigers have said that they are going to be active in the free agent market this off-season, There is the Hinch connection & the Tigers may be one of the few teams willing to go to 10 years to sign Correa.
If the Tigers are willing to hand out a 10 yr contract, they could very well land him. I don’t see many other teams looking to make that kind of commitment. Unless the Angels or Rangers do something drastic, the Tigers might be the only team in the market.
The Angels? how many 10 year contracts are the angels gonna give out?
As many as it takes.
Why would he want to live in Detroit?
With 300 million you can be comfortable any where
True that. There’s always Windsor. I hear they have Cheetahs there on the lake
Definitely the Nats with the surreptitious, dark-horse style signing… 12 years with an AAV of 5MM/year, and a back load of 400MM spread out over 72 years.
One has to wonder what happened behind closed doors when Hinch was still in Houston. Did his players throw him under the bus? Do they want to be in the same clubhouse together after the scandal? Does Hinch want to discuss that narrative more?
I’m bracing for the Tigers to sign a stop gap (Freddy Galvis, reunion with Iglesias etc.) because they’re certain the future SS is on the farm somewhere. Tigers SS had a cumulative -17 runs saved this year. Anything close to even or better will drastically help.
Trading for a SS could be on the table. Willy Adames was had for two relief pitchers. Make an offer on CJ Abrams. Avila has said he’s “sensitive to trading prospects” at this time, though.
Pretty hard to bring Willy back. But these Tigers are going to make a splash this offseason. Nationals and Tigers are the same organization. They are both in the mix.
LA will somehow make it happen, again.
Assume you meant the team in Anaheim. Could happen. Then they can fill their rotation with studs like Jon Lester and Michael Pineda.
@ vtadave;
LOL
Good point.
Look how well that long-term contract with Albert Puhols worked out.
Please no.
If he wants to win and win now….the Cubs don’t fit the bill.
If he wants to win, he should sign with that team that’s been to the ALCS for 5 straight years.
It always makes me cringe to hear a player talk about his WAR.
Once he signs his deal, can we call him Daddy WARbucks? Correa is a great player but he’s such a tool.
I would guess Tigers, Mariners, Phillies as the most likely teams at this point.
Any deal over 5 years is ridiculous. How many organizations are legit WS contenders for even 5 years in a row, let alone 10?
Long-term contracts are terrible for a team, and terrible as well for the player IF he’s a genuine top performer year-in and year-out and wants to win. Look at Bryce Harper’s situation today……
The Phillies have a payroll bordering on the luxury tax. The defense is questionable, the bullpen is awful, and their starting pitching is limited. They have few young, affordable players with years of upside that in time can make the team better. So even Harper had to come out after the season and say the Phillies needed to get more young players on the roster. How do they do that in the next few years? Are teams going to trade future young stars to get a veteran such as Segura, Gregorius, Herrera, etc.? So the Phillies will have to develop guys from their farm system. OK. Harper is 3 years into a 13 year contract and is now age 28. If the Phillies were to bring up 4-5 quality young players from their farm system it would probably take at least 3-4 years to get them up and allow them to adapt to ML play. And by then, who knows how well Wheeler and Nola would be pitching, how beat-up Realmuto will be from catching, and if Hoskins would want to stick around.
If Correa says he want to win – now and in the future for 10 years – then he’s in for quite a shock no matter which team he signs with. What he wants is the guaranteed money.
To be fair his current team has made the ALCS for 5 straight seasons.
Cheating. You forgot to add, “cheating” to the last part of your sentence, sir.
While your notions are sound Sam that’s just not how the market works
I agree I don’t like 10 yr deals but that’s what it takes to get these guys
* Now I think you made a horrible example by choosing Harper, he has been worth every penny and then some to date
The Harper v Machado debates were obnoxious but the key thing to walk away from them is you better make the right call when you do go there and you better factor in Character
– Harper is the NL MVP today, Machado is the guy who calls team meetings for not hustling and then doesn’t hustle that same very night
I view Carlos a Machado, not a Harper, so id 100% pass
Not all huge contracts are terrible, Alex Rodriguez’s 1/4 billion contract had people jumping outta there boots slamming it upon ink….he killed that contract and was vastly underpaid. I personally love having Mookie under contract for the next decade based on leadership and character he provides
@Cap & Crunch;
You bring up a lot of points I agree with…..
o My example of Harper is not that his contract is a problem for the Phillies – the 13 years are a problem for HIM. The man wants to win. He’s adjusted his game and become not just a strong fundamental player, but a team leader as well. Can you see the Phillies being a legitimate WS contender in the next 2 years? I can’t. And it’s difficult to look out past that.
o Yes, the Astros might well be the best organization in MLB, something that’s been overlooked by the cheating. Teams today have to develop their own players, not just through the farm system, but at the major league level as well. No one does that better than the Astros. The way they handle pitchers is unique. They take former stars whose careers have been in a nosedive – Verlander and Cole – and make them stars again. They let guys go in free agency that pitch decently for other teams, and replace them with cheaper options that came through their farm system, or so-so veterans they picked up that pitch better with the Astros then they ever did. And they plan ahead…….
o Today word came that pitching coach Brent Strom is thinking about retiring after the season. Now we know why the Astros promoted Joshua Miller to co-pitching coach a year or so ago……carrying on the system. The same with losing Correa – the Astros have that covered. 1) Bregman can move over from 3B; 2) Aledmys Diaz can play the position; or 3) maybe they have an eye on a replacement (how about bringing in Andrelton Simmons for 2-3 years and rejuvenating him?).
The Astros, Giants, and Dodgers get the most out of their players by working with them at the ML level in-season. As such, they don’t need to sign a lot of guys to extended contracts.
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As for the Correa situation…..
I had player agents tell me 25 years ago that pro athletes have tremendous egos, and if they think they’re better than another player that got a big contract, then they want a bigger contract. It’s not that they need the money, it’s the ego thing. Correa saw what Lindor got earlier this year, and I assure you that he believes he’s a superior all-around SS (which I believe). That’s what this is really all about.
Simmons, Baez or Story on one yr deals would fit this team ideally while getting looks at Leon, Peña, or Nova
Agh, my misunderstanding then Sam
I liked your post it probably just conjured up too much of the Machado/Harper collusion debates we all had to endure for 4 months a couple years ago
As a Dodger fan I’m anti Seager ink as well; so I think we share some same thoughts. Just wanted to point out not all big contracts are bad and really the argument gets skewed a ton b/c we have to see the corpses’ rot everyday on the ones that went wrong and that’s tiring…especially over 162
I think Joe Brady said it best in another article- Im not signing these contracts unless I’m 100% sold on the player and have ZERO reservations
I’m not there with Correa, not even close ….Ive made other posts saying I wouldn’t be there with any of these big Ss this offseason….But
Mookie Im there
Juan Soto, yes sir
Mike Trout when he signed , Yes
Harper – Please
Votto-Yup
I probably just read too much into your original post thinking it was a Never Ever thing, re-reading it has plenty of nuance I didn’t catch
Markets move slow, but Imo they are trending more towards reserved methodical spending than GM’s showing everyone the money in free agency. I think we see it play out here over the winter in grand fashion with so much quantity looked for BIG $ and less willing….The Music’s going out on a few folks
His point was that Correa doesn’t actually care about what he says he does, not whether or not that’s, “what the market requires”. If you look at what his actual argument is and not a strawman, then Harper is a good example.
Arod had steroids to help fight aging. If that’s the best example, not a great argument.
That was my thinking when I read it. He wants 10 years but doesn’t want to be miserable in the dugout and clubhouse. Team competitiveness and culture can shift an awful lot in 10 years. He could be employed under a few different front office regimes in that timespan. Kind of sounds like he’d like a long term guarantee with an opt out or two along the way.
I don’t think any contract over 5 years is ridiculous though. It’s just accounting and budgeting. There are very few teams who could afford the top tier players on shorter term, higher AAV deals. Especially since only competitive teams would be in on such contracts and they probably want to allocate some budget to other improvements as well. Even the mighty Yankees had to pay LeMahieu until he’s 38 to spread out the cost.
Teams I could see him in
Tigers Mariners marlins.
Not Marlins… not yet for them.
I see the METZ. Every SS FA will be signed by them this offseason with Cohen’s billions.
Well he wants to be a Mets. I just think we can’t sign him bc we have two stud 3B prospects and we need to use money elsewhere.
That would be awesome. A 6 SS IF.
Impressive player no doubt. Limited number of teams able and willing to pay for his value in terms of AAV and also long length of contract necessary to sign him. All the tools to do the job and a plus personality in many other ways.
Someone mentioned yesterday that the Astros have multiple future HOFers. Besides Greinke and Verlander who didn’t contribute much in the ALDS, if you’re talking about Altuve, Correa, Bregman, there’s no way the voters will allow them entry given their position on the steroid scandal. These guys’ reputations will forever be tarnished no matter how much they get paid in FA.
Correa and Bregman are nowhere near HOF paths right now…Now that could change but it’s a longshot –
Somebody else will come forward in 5 years exposing Altuve more than he already has been…it;s up to him to change his perception until then…I don’t think he has the personality to do so so I think he falls short as well in the end
You’re right that somebody will come forward in 5 years, but they will be saying here’s how team X used smart watches to steal signs every night, here’s how team Y used their private TV network cameras illegally. The Astros did what they did, but this notion that the poor, respectable rest of the league had no idea defies basic logic. So then, why did no one say anything for two years before Fiers? Because nobody wanted to open up their own clubhouse closets.
Ooops, meant trash can scandal.
Altuve, Correra, Bregman play long enough and have as productive careers as they have to-date and they will be inducted into the HOF, despite the electronic sign scandal. Steroids were much worse than ten sign scandals and we have steroid guys going into the HOF.
What a horrible selfish choice to respond to questions about failed contract negotiations going into a playoff series. He can join George in Canada after the World Series. Enjoyed his stay with the Stros but let him sink another team with an albatross contract
Meh. He can walk and chew gum at the same time. Harmless comment about how much he likes Chicago and pizza and how he almost signed with the Cubs. What’s the harm in that?
This guy will be playing for the Portland Thunderbirds in five years. Write that down.
When you look at when guys drop off it tends to be between 32 and 34 years old. Most guys aren’t worth their original AAV by age 35 and beyond and basically the back half of all those deals are a tax the club pays in order to secure the first half of a contract during a players’ healthiest, most consistent and productive years.
With that in mind, if it’s AAV he’s after, I’d offer Correa 6 years/$200M. If it’s years he’s after, I’d offer Correa 8 years/$250M w/ the salary dropping after the first 6 years at $33.5M and if he wants a full 10 years I’d offer Correa 10 years/$290M again heavily front loaded. (5 years/$175M w/ a flat AAV and 5 years/$115M also with a flat AAV, essentially)
One way or another, they need to get rid of the luxury tax being based on the AAV of these contracts, because the value of the individual years is a valid factor in the overall value of the total contract when we all know guys drop off at a certain point and are often guaranteed big money for a few years after that certain point.
We know, the players know it, the teams know it, the American people know it.
If the tax shifts to a year to year salary basis, the richest teams are going to manipulate it very easily. Escalators for teams over the tax 3 years in a row? Try built-in dips in the contracts every third year – 35M/35M/15M/35M,instead of 30M/year.
Front loading a contract costs the team more $ in the end due to inflation.
Inflation is certainly one factor. But front loading might make a contract more moveable later or provide you the real world budget space in future years. I think it’s a great strategy for young emerging teams who might have escalating salaries due to future large arbitration classes.
You could take that money and invest it, then use it + what you earn on it to pay those escalating costs at a later date or by including it in the trade to facilitate moving that player.
Unless they change the way the luxury tax is calculated, it makes little sense for teams to front load a deal.
Keep in mind that there are only 3-6 teams per year that approach the CBT thresholds. The other 80%+ teams don’t worry about AAV and it’s impact on their CBT because they aren’t close to reaching it. These teams are run like most businesses; maximize revenue, control expenses, make a sizable profit (positive cash flow) and have non cash expenses (depreciation, etc) to lower their tax burden. So front loading contracts makes a lot of sense because these other 24+ teams would love to get a player at the end of his contract for a lower annual salary since that would be their actual expense from a P&L standpoint for the year(s) they acquire him for. If the last (3) years of Correa’s contract only pay him $20M, these teams would be much more inclined to acquire him than if he was paid a flat $30M -$33M over the life of his contract. They could care less if the AAV is $30M – $35M as that is not a true expense to the team. Otherwise, his former team will either need to retain a portion of his salary (see David Price) just to move him and/or have to throw in a prospect.
There is an argument to be made for small market teams to back-load contracts. I had this in mind when Betts was on the market. I a team like SD structured Myers, (using some round numbers to make it easier) as $18M/3, followed by $60M/3, then it is a $78M/l contract.
SD, because it cares about real dollars, only pays $6M per. After 3 years, they can trade him to a big market team. Assuming that Myers was earning his salary, the big market team would care more about the $13M/year AAV than they would about the $22M/year in real money.
As a real life example, on a smaller scale, look at the Miami Reyes trade. Miami got one year of Reyes for $10M. Toronto assumed the rest of the contract for about $20M/year. In the same trade, they sent Buerhle to TO. Miami paid Buerhle $6M/year. while TO picked up the remainder for about $16M/year.
Miami not only get Reyes and Buerhle at a very cheap salary, they also got the youngest year of the contracts. That’s good business.
@DMT I mentioned that you could invest the money and then use it to do exactly that (throw in to move him) later, after you’ve also collected the amount it’s made for you during tht time frame. So you either don’t collect any interest/return on the money and pay the player more early on, or you do collect interest/return and then can still pay down the contract to the amount you think 24 other teams would like.
What an incredibly long post to add nothing of substance.
Yeah it’s good business if you can convince someone to take your questionable contract, I’m not sure that’s a fantastic strategy to rely on.
If there is one thing that I am pretty sure of, it’s that:
1-There is always a GM out there than thinks he is smarter than everyone else, and can fix any player.
2-There is always an owner that wants to rush a rebuild in order to entice fans.
Guys like Preller do this on a quarterly basis. Cincy trading two roughly top-100 prospects for Puig. There is always someone, in every sport, and probably in real life that thinks ‘this time, it will be different’.
Preller needs to find them for Hosmer and Myers. There are enough teams stuck with bad contracts around the league that I still think that’s a bad strategy to count on.
Maybe you get lucky…maybe you’re stuck with Pujols, Davis, Hosmer, Myers, Miggy, Strasburg, Corbin, etc. Or paying a large portion to move them.
I enjoyed this post, wasnt just criticism actually offered an idea on how to try and fix the issue you don’t get that often. An old supervisor told me once if you don’t have an idea or a solution don’t criticize.
Astros have Pena at AAA ready to take over. If he’s not ready Diaz or Bregman can fill in until the Astros find replacement. The farm system replaced Springer with quality players. It will do the same with Correa. Six all-star quality bats return regardless of what Correa does. Correa batted sixth most of the year with Tucker protecting him. He’s not as good offensively as some think – very streaky. Defense is always second to none.
I would prefer a 1-2 year stop gap instead of relying on a rookie. And if they have the opportunity to sign one of the really good SS on the FA market then they can use Pena as trade bait.
I really hate to say it, because Carlos is a great player, but I don’t see the Astros meeting his demands nor should they. It saddens me to see Carlos leave more than Springer because George always acted like he wanted to leave. Carlos stated quite clearly that he would love to stay.
Phillies?
Correa seems like the highest risk, highest reward out of the shortstops on the market. A healthy Correa could be a 5+ WAR player. But he’s played more than 120 games twice in 7 seasons.
This guy wants $350 Mil. Joke
You can blame Lindor for that $ number.
Blame Lindor? Or blame Cohen? Lindor didn’t want to sign with NY, so he gave some obscene number. Cohen said ‘sure, buddy’, and what was Lindor supposed to do? Turn down 350 mil?
Well of course you’re right. Blame the Mets for Lindor’s obscene contract. I would never blame anyone for taking the max amount they could make, no matter how stupid the team offering it looks.
I’m asking you nicely, Cashman — please do not sign this guy.
Don’t worry Mr Person, Hal’s wallet has a chastity belt on it and he swallowed the key. Cheatin’ Carlos isn’t coming to the real NY team.
This is going to be sooo NOT Fun for Gm’s …. Lindor really F%^&’D this whole thing all up
Just my opinion but Id want nothing to do with Seager Correa Story or Baez’s contracts this offseason
While usually its a benefit to wait when you are the free agent player it might be best to get that ink in really quick for some of these guys this year and beat the traffic
Unless you could get Baez or Story on one year deals
Don’t blame Lindor for that ridiculous contract, blame the Mets. They had all the leverage in those negotiations and he still him robbed them blind. You can’t fault the player for getting as much as possible
Even if an owner has a 500 million a year budget he looks a numbers and says….how many of these 10 year contracts proves worthwhile and the answer has been….zero
Jeter’s was a success.
Fair enough but jeter is jeter lol
Max Scherzer worked out quite well for Washington.
Scherzer was only 7 years, not 10.
Alex Rodriguez’s 250 mill contract fell off a truck
The first one was useful. 2001-2010
Even if an owner has a 500 million a year budget he looks a numbers and says….how many of these 10 year contracts proves worthwhile and the answer has been….zero
I deserve to be hired for the openings. Tell your boss
Clean up in aisle 5
He’s going to need a bigger massage table.
Mark my words fellow Tigers fans, this will be a signing that will hamper, not help our rebuild! This guy REEKS of Francisco Lindor to me. He’s going to get his millions, and be nicked up by May. He gloats about his youth and numbers in this interview well, but I didn’t hear him bring up anything about the previous years BEFORE this successful one he just finished. He has always been hurt and has had nagging injuries that have cut his production time after time after time! Sign Marcus Simien to a much shorter deal for more AAV and then go out and sign a Robbie Ray or someone similar to place with Mize, Manning and Skubal and then fill in the gaps. I’ll take Simiens last 3 years of proven production over Correa’s 1 year all day long!
I second that
So why would Siemien or Ray agree to short term deals? Although if the answer is Detroit, I see your point.
The Tigers won’t be signing Carlos Carrera or any high price free agents. Only a fool could overlook the uselessness of high cost players they were drug down by the last 5 years. Furthermore, let’s be realistic. Not only are the Tigers not ready to challenge, no top rated Free Agent will come to a wreck of a city like Detroit.
Carlos Correa’s top priority is Carlos Correa. That’s fine, but let’s not pretend otherwise.
The next Hosmer. Large selling point is age then a massive drop off in production after getting the contract. I could see him getting a similar contract to Hosmer, more per year but 4 years of high AAV then a four year player option at a lower AAV.
I agree that Correa’s K will end up being bad, but Hosmer is a bad comp because he wasn’t a good player, Correa is at least a good player right now.
Gotta agree there. Just ike I mentioned about Zito above, it’s not like Hosmer tanked. He was a 1B with a 108 OPS+ in his previous three seasons. He’s had a 102 OPS+ with SD. given the fact that he is aging, going from 108 to 102 is not at all unusual.
Just as importantly, Hosmer never had a shot at being really good. While I think Correa will prove to be a bad contract, he can give you 5 really good years.
People, the Tigers aren’t going to spend the kind of money he’s going to demand. Not going to happen. He may very well want to play for Hinch again, and Hinch may want to reunite. But, it’s not at all prudent to go out and spend hundreds of millions for a player when they have a potentially similar player on the cusp of MLB-readiness in Ryan Kreidler.
What fits for the Tigers is a stop-gap, placeholder type of SS on a deal that spans no more than 2 years.
I hope the Yankees aren’t inclined to reward this thief.
let him “cheat” some other team out of their money
Cheater.
Besides the cheating mantra, Correa has had a difficult time staying on the field, as many have noted.
IMHO, no contract of over 5 years is a good idea for teams.
I’m just not completely sold on his durability. I think there is additional motivation for players as they enter their platform year, so to say just because Correa played a lot this year doesn’t mean he will once he has that long-term cushy contract.
A-Rod said the other night that Correa would be a 400 million player. Thoughts?
Not that high, but probably around 360
Yes why would you listen to anything A rod says?
Yankees/Mets bidding war and then he goes to the Yankees
Correa is Puerto Rican. Baez is Puerto Rican. Lindor will lobby to get them both on the Mets.
If they blast over the luxury cap, which Cohen has said he’s ok doing, then signing them both is a possibility
Can a team afford 3 30+ million contracts? Yes
The Astros offered to give Average Correa 6 years/$120m pre season start. Now he had one good year and he wants more. Sounds greedy. The Astros should let him walk and pick up another player.
Correa is only 26. It should end up around 10 years, $360 million
Who’s going to pay that?
Maybe the NYY, but they will blow past $260M payroll.
LAA, but that gives them $130M on offense, with nothing left for pitching.
The RS, TO, WS, Seattle, Atl, the NYMs, SF, Stl, Mil, LAD and SDP already have SSs.
I don’t think Houston, the Nats or SF will be signing someone that long.
There will be about as many big-name SSs out there as there are teams willing and able to pay $300M. I don’t think any of these guys are scoring anything more than $300M.
“Correa celebrated his 27th birthday only a few weeks ago…”
Meaning his age 26 season he’s coming off. You’re not brilliant because you pointed out the literal age the guy is
Like many others, try to really be insightful and knowledgeable rather than just another dunning Kruger perceiving himself as genius
I knew thered be at least one casual who thinks he’s being clever by pointing out he’s literally 27, not 26. You’re getting his full age 27 season
Try to learn more about baseball before you try to act knowledgeable about it
Is he literally 27, or figuratively 27?
“Correa is only 26”
You said he is 26. What you said is wrong. Don’t get triggered because I read the words you posted and not the ones you claim your post meant.
Instead of worrying about other people being clever and telling them they need to learn, maybe you should reflect on your inability to convey your point.
Apparently it doesn’t matter cuz people should just know what he meant
Wow you must be fun at parties
What if Georgie endorses Toronto?
Hot take! Tigers sign him to a 10+ year deal
Tigers absolutely. 10 years no
Long-term contracts pay for themselves in the first few years. Don’t worry about the back-end. If the Tigers sign Correa, they will be signing the best position player on the free-agent market. As a Dodger fan, I firmly believe that.
Nobody would agree to spend 10 years in Detroit. 3 years was enough for me.
The Astros have super elite future batting champ and HR king Jeremy Pena ready to take over at SS. Astros have no leverage to pay Correa more than $100 mill total
Astros have no incentive*****
I hope that tainted 2017 World Series title is the last title members of that Astros team ever wins.
We will all see if Correa’s statement about titles over money is true. We’ll see if he goes to a rebuilding team who throws big money at him to be the focal point as his first few years, at least, are mired in mediocrity without playoff appearances.
I understand a lotta Yankees fans want him, and he’d be a fantastic player for them, but I want Seager more. He just fits the team more. Yeah, his defense isn’t as good, and he’s had injury problems like Correa, but he’s a lefty and a better over-all hitter. He’s perfect for Yankee Stadium. I honestly see Correa going to someone like the Mariners, Blue Jays, or potentially the Phillies. I’m happy if we get him though, I’d just prefer Seager.