Over the past year, the Cubs have sent a lot of good players out the door on their way to slashing payroll and starting a new rebuild. Yu Darvish, Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez, Craig Kimbrel and more. But one of the key pieces of their recent competitive window remains. Despite occasional rumors that he was being shopped around, Willson Contreras is still a Cub. The backstop will be eligible for arbitration for a third and final time this winter, a season in which the Cubs are unlikely to be competitive, given their recent sell-off. That means they would be wise to commit to one of two paths, either extending him or trading him.
When choosing between the two paths, however, something that might tip the scales is the weak free agent crop of catchers this offseason. With such a low supply of catchers available, teams might have to turn to trades if they want to upgrade behind the plate. That could make Contreras a hot commodity, given his solid track record. Across the past six seasons, Contreras has a line of .259/349/.458, for a wRC+ of 114, producing 12 wins above replacement, according to FanGraphs. Only five catchers in baseball produced more fWAR over that span. (Yasmani Grandal, J.T. Realmuto, Buster Posey Mike Zunino and Gary Sanchez.) Contreras has also been remarkably consistent in that time, with his wRC+ falling between 101 and 126 each year, and his fWAR always between 0.7 and 2.7.
Financially speaking, he won’t be prohibitively expensive. His 2021 salary was $6.65MM. He will get a raise on that through arbitration, probably to the $10MM range, approximately half of what Grandal, Realmuto and Posey are making per year on their current contracts.
As to who would be interested in acquiring him, it would have to be a team with a need behind the plate, of course. But given that he only has one year of control, it would also have to be a win-now club. Let’s look at which teams could fit the bill.
Cleveland: Roberto Perez can be controlled for 2022 with a club option valued at $7MM. However, he’s now two years removed from his excellent 2019 season. Since then, he’s only played 76 games due to various injuries and hit .155/.253/.277 for a wRC+ of 49. Austin Hedges got 85 starts at catcher this year and hit just .178/.220/.308 for a wRC+ of 40. There’s certainly room for improvement on that kind of production. The club also has maximum payroll flexibility. Once they exercise their $11MM club option on Jose Ramirez, that will bring their total 2022 payroll commitments up to the range of… $11MM. Bringing in Contreras along with a few free agents, and then having some better health in the rotation, 2022 could see the club easily surpass their 80-82 record from this year.
Mariners: After surprising the baseball world with a 90-win campaign, the Mariners have seemingly moved beyond rebuilding and into competing. In 2021, they gave playing time to Luis Torrens, Tom Murphy and Cal Raleigh, none of whom ran away with the job. Murphy had a tremendous season in the shortened 2019 but couldn’t replicate it in 2021. He hit .202/.304/.350 this year, for a wRC+ of 87 and 1.0 fWAR. Torrens was better with the bat but was mostly being used as a designated hitter down the stretch. Raleigh has decent defensive numbers but hit a paltry .180/.223/.309 for a wRC+ of 47. Mariners’ president Jerry Dipoto recently spoke about adding more offense for 2022 and has a trade-happy reputation. Going after Contreras could be one way to add some more thump to Seattle’s lineup.
Red Sox: In 2021, Boston split the catching duties between Christian Vazquez and Kevin Plawecki, both of whom were okay but not great. Vazquez hit .258/.308/.352, wRC+ of 77. Plawecki’s line was .287/.308/.389, wRC+ of 102. They each produced 0.5 fWAR. Both of them have one year of team control left, as Plawecki is going into his final arbitration year whereas the Red Sox have a $7MM club option on Vazquez. Contreras would be an upgrade for the 2022 season and could help bridge the gap to younger catchers like Connor Wong and Ronaldo Hernandez.
Rockies: The Rockies gave most of their 2021 catching starts to Elias Diaz, who had a sudden power breakout. Coming into this year, he had 15 home runs in 273 career games. In 2021, he had 18 dingers in 106 games. Despite this power surge, he still only put up a wRC+ of 92, partially because of playing his home games at Coors. (wRC+ controls for ballpark factors.) Dom Nunez was the primary backup to Diaz, and he put up a line of .189/.293/.399, which adds up to a wRC+ of just 69. Contreras could easily provide a boost to this tandem, if the club thinks it’s in win-now mode, which they apparently do.
Yankees: It’s become an annual tradition for people to debate whether or not the Yankees will stick with Gary Sanchez. His tremendous early years have seemed too tantalizing to give up on, even as he’s struggled more recently. In 2021, he was competent enough, hitting .204/.307/.423, producing a wRC+ of 99 and 1.5 fWAR. Like Contreras, he is going into his final arbitration season, and will be due a raise on a salary of $6.35MM. Could the Yankees be willing to swap him out for a catcher with a similar payout but more consistent production?
Yankees are a mess. Contreras won’t help much. Yankees were badly hurt by making the playoffs because now it will be tougher to dismiss Cashman
Well I will tell you this much I would have no problem at all trading Sanchez for him. I have really become fed up with Gary’s laziness behind the dish. Yankees are in need of an upgrade big time. Maybe Cashman can wake up from his slumber and get a deal done.
The Astros could use an upgrade behind the plate. Their win now window will still be open and since Cubs GM Jed Hoyer never gets a decent return for players he trades it makes sense for Houston
Wrong daddyT, it was Theo who often was bad at negotiating trades. Jed is still TBD.
Hoyer got great returns this year. I don’t think he lost a single trade. The players he brought in on the Darvish trade look especially good.
daddytbone21 hours ago
Cubs GM Jed Hoyer never gets a decent return
====================================
Hoyer did really well this year, imho.
What’s apparent is just how weak the catching position is in today’s game. 80% of fans want to replace their catchers, until they look around and see the options.
I do hope that if MLB eventually moves to “robot umps” it will free up the catching position for more offensive-minded catchers. I agree. The position right now is abysmal. As bad as I’ve seen it in decades of watching the game.
RobM: I often wonder if that’s because, similar to many SS coming up, they take guys who can hit and/or are athletic and stick them in that position now. I don’t recall ever seeing the C position this poor overall. It used to be treated as a QB position in many respects (Dickie, Berra, Howard, Munson, – Even Girardi was only part-time and I’d take him right now).
League wRC+ for catchers has hovered around the mid-to-upper 80’s for the last handful of seasons. Not really all that much different from when it was in the 90-93 wRC+ range in the 70’s. Gotta go back to 1879 when catchers had a wRC+ above 100, and that was only 105. Catcher will always be a defensive minded position.
Fans will complain when their team’s catchers don’t hit, but teams are realizing more and more that defense matters fan more for the catcher position. So an 80 wRC+ with a great defensive catcher is worth more than a league average offensive catcher with even average defense.
framing is not the only defensive value of catchers
Every team has like 5-6 fans who complain about their back up catcher hitting below .200 batting average.
There’s a similarity between back-up quarter backs and back-up catchers. A segment of fans overrate them and often want to make them the starters.
If they are wanting to start making moves, Miami is a great chance of happening.
I agree. Miami has some talent and is in the market for a catcher. If they think they can contend in 2022, I can see a trade here.
Miami would’ve been at the top spot last off-season but with only 1 yr left in arb I highly doubt Marlins offer anything substantial for a rental.
I don’t dislike him but the Yankees pitching staff needs a defensively competent catcher behind the plate, not a DH. Non-tender and say goodbye
Goodbye to Sanchez*
I don’t think non-tendering him makes much sense. Unless they secured a viable replacement via FA or trade 1st, then maybe. They’d be letting him go for nothing, and someone else will 100000% scoop him up. The catching position overall is quite weak across MLB, that even though Gary has been subpar defensively and basically average offensively, he could fetch something in a trade guaranteed.
BINGO!
With the way teams value catchers nowadays (defense & handling pitchers), Sanchez honestly doesn’t have much value. Maybe they could get something, but I doubt a team is gonna trade much for him if he’s making like $7 million +. Probably what he takes home in arbitration?
Seattle catcher Tom Murphy missed the entire shortened 2020 season with an injury after his encouraging 2019 campaign of 75 games.
If Ricketts can’t afford Chicklets…
Stanton was a HUGE mistake especially after it cost the Yankees Harper the following off season because the Yankees started caring about the Tax
Stanton carries a $22MM luxury tax hit for the Yankees, which is relatively minor in today’s game, particularly for the Yankees. Considering how he enjoys crushing the Red Sox in Fenway, and he’s one of the few Yankees to hit in the postseason, I’d probably focus on other areas to fix.
Thinking $22 mill is nothing is why it cost so much to go to a game
Looks like you failed that Economics 101 course.
You mean something broken?
How lazy
Thinking the options are nothing or huge mistake is why you don’t have any money.
They traded for Stanton because they were getting the reigning NL MVP at pennies on the dollar, his luxury tax hit per year (especially for a player of his ability) is considerably low, and they probably didn’t want to get involved in the potential Harper market. At the time, Harper was a year away from free agency and 11+ years and $400M + were the numbers being floated around by everyone… and the Yankees probably felt they didn’t want to compete at those potential numbers when they could get a comparable player for considerably cheaper.
Mlbnyy: Although I understand your position relative to Harper, the fact is that NY probably wouldn’t have matched Phillies’ offer for him anyway. In fact, Stanton has produced and been clutch when on the field for us, and since Cressey rewrote the training curriculum, he and Judge were able to stay healthy all year, except Covid IL.
In hindsight, yeah they could’ve used that money elsewhere, but in reality, not trading guys at their peak value (Voit) hurt them more. They have the money to spend, they need to get rid of the 3 extra DHs. Here’s my proposal on what we have to fill and my preference for each:
C – Contreras (Zunino would probably be second, only if necessary)
SS – Story or Seager (via trade, DeJong or Cronenworth, if necessary)
CF – Marte, Sterling or Ketel (Also Chris Taylor, or M. Taylor, if necessary)
1B – Matt Olsen (Rizzo, if not Olsen)
Utility – Chris Taylor or Jonathan Villar
It requires prospects and capital, but it can be done. All the naysayers will start with – “You have to give up Peraza and Dominguez for x player!”, but as we’ve seen, rentals are not nearly as expensive as fans hope, mostly because teams want to build prospects and save money.
You’re dreaming. Taylor isn’t going anywhere if the Dodgers want him. Seager will cost the Yanks between 25-30 million on a long term basis. Yankee fans thunk the they can buy their way to the title in FA. They should look at actually developing their farm system and building a much better Front Office, It works better that way.
The Dodgers rarely make large FA signings. Bauer being an exception and that certainly didn’t work out well. At least that cluster was only a three year commitment.
See, this is what a delusional Yankees fan sounds like. Why do you guys think you can just go buy a team or trade for anyone?
C- Cubs aren’t trading Contreras for Sanchez, Zunino, the Rays have a club option on him and wouldn’t trade him.
SS – Story or Seager – both will cost $20 mill plus, why would the Padres trade their starting 2nd basemen, a guy who can play all over the infield. Lastly, why would STL trade DeJong to the Yankees? just because he had a bad season at the plate?
CF – They could sign Sterling but he will probably cost too much, why would Arizona just trade Ketel, a guy with 3 years of control to the Yankees? M. Taylor and the Royals agreed to a new two year contract last month. Why would the Royals trade him to the Yankees?
Utility – Lol, you really think the Dodgers would let Chris Taylor just walk away? Jonathan Villar might be available assuming he doesn’t resign with the MEts.
Red Sox should trade Vazquez and try to pick up Stallings from Pittsburgh, the offensive production was nearly identical. Stallings is better defensively and has a few more years of team control.
Yeah, that would be nice, but why would the Pirates trade him?
Cal Raleigh is a 24-yer-old catcher who split his 2021 season between AAA Tacoma, where he posted a .324/.377/.608/.985 line in 44 games, and Seattle, where he posted a .180/.223/.309/.532 line in 47 games.
With Tom Murphy and Luis Torrens on board, the Mariners have more important needs to fill.
They should actively be looking to move Contreras, unless they plan to blow him away with a big contract. No particular reason for him not to enter free agency as the Cubs enter a rebuild. The catcher market is weak. They should look to capitalize and get some value for him.
Contreras to San Diego for Hosmer and CJ Abrams
Probably have to add more than just Abrams if you expect them to take on Hosmer.
Lmao. Cubs are not paying anyone in 2022
Jed isn’t dumb. Why would he want to take on Hosmers contract? That’s a terrible return for a too 5 catcher in baseball. The cubs also don’t need a SS. They have 3 or 4 potential superstar players that play SS. All of which are 4 years away. The point is why trade one of your best players for a terrible contract of Hosmer and Abrams?
“They have 3 or 4 potential superstar players that play SS. All of which are 4 years away. ”
This is why people give cubs’ fans a hard time.
Why trade 1 year of Willson for Hosmer and Abrams? Because you think the value of Abrams – the cost of Hosmer > value of Willson. You could argue about that value proposition, but with a payroll that looks to be pretty low in 2022, I’d like to see the Cubs take on bad contracts if it can increase their player return.
Now add gore to that trade and it could be considered
If they’re going to move Hosmer they’re either going to have to take back a bad contract in return and hope the scenery change helps, or pony up two quality prospects probably.
But Cubs already have Madrigal and Hoerner, they don’t need another. Unless they move one of them to 3rd base. I think Cubs need pitching. Need young pitching stud.
Until the players can cement themselves as productive, healthy big leaguers, the cubs just need to accumulate talent.
I could see the Cubs trading him or extending him, but one vs. the other depends on how long they project this rebuild/retool to be. It will be interesting to see how it plays out.
Voit for contreras
Plans and simple
Dfa Sanchez and move on
Why aim so low? Why not Voit for Juan Soto? /s
Lol. That’s a terrible deal. Voit is a DH.
Tom murphy didnt play a game in the shortened 2020 season. The season youre refurring to is the 2019 season.
I only view the Yankees and Red Sox as “win-now” clubs presented in this article. The Rockies have no business being included while the Indians aren’t likely to trade for a catcher with just one season of control. A case could be made for the Mariners but would they really be willing to part with enough young talent to satisfy the Cubs when they are just beginning their own window of competitiveness in the AL West?
I could see the MAriners trying to trade for Contreras, they do have 3 catchers and their window is to win now.
These so-called writers are really fishing here! Just because the Cubs traded some dinner-to-be free agents does not mean they are planning to trade every decent player they have. This is the same garbage as Hoyer plainly stating they will be big FA spenders this winter, then scrubs writing “the Cubs will not spend a dime for the next few years!”
Please do better and find a real story.
Where did he say they’d be big spenders?
The Cubs have enough payroll flexibility to speed up the rebuild and I fully expect Contreras to be around for their return to the top of the NL.
I like the Mariner fit best. They definitely have a need and could use someone with his experience to help build their young staff.
Yankees need a catcher that can actually catch. Throwing to Sánchez is like throwing the ball with no catcher behind the plate.
I know the Rockies are extending everybody they can right now, but has anything been said about their new GM’s plan for this off-season? I haven’t really been keeping up with them, and I wouldn’t know if he’s looking to get guys under control for a 2-3 year time-table or try to buy a team this off-season.
1-I think if the Cubs had an interest in trading Contreras, they’d have done so at the deadline.
2-I doubt that the Red Sox or Yankees have any interest.in Contreras. They both have catchers, who are both decent but not great, on one-year contracts. They won’t be trading away good prospects for what might be a 2 WAR upgrade.
Contreras is better than any catchers the Yankees have had in the last 10 years. Jorge Posada was their last great catcher.
So I guess the Tigers don’t exist. They have a clear need behind the plate, the finances and plenty of interesting prospects to trade.
He knows they aren’t making trades so why waste space
I noticed that too, and I’m wondering how TR missed them in the article. It’d be nice if they could trade from the logjam of prospects they are accumulating, particularly on he infield.
The Cubs are not entering a rebuild. Fake news as always. They are lightly retooling. Contreas is not getting traded. Cubs will add a bat, and try to fix their pitching. At the start of 2022, they will again be competitive for the division. A very weak division as it stands.
A delusional cubs fan I see. Is that you Mr. Ricketts?
They really don’t need to add a bat. It wouldn’t hurt but with Davis coming up next year. Likely gonna be on the opening Day Roster. Madrigal can lead off they’ll finally have a lead off hitter. If they add anyone I’d love to Nick Castellanos. He would have to opt out though.
If they’re, “lightly retooling”, they’re gonna continue to be bad. They would need to spend so much money in FA to fill all of the holes that currently exist, it’s just not realistic.
Unless they change how service time works, I’ll be shocked if Brennen Davis is on their opening day roster.
I don’t think the division is that particularly weak. The Pirates are terrible, yes- and those are some easy wins. The Reds bounce between all-in and all-out far too often, too. However St. Louis and Milwaukee have some real talent. It’d probably be easy for the Cubs to retool and comfortably finish 3rd, but I think it’d take some serious heavy lifting to take the crown.
Hahaha
They need to extend him not trade him. They need to build around him and Brennan Davis.
Building around a 30 year old catcher is probably not the best idea. Not all of them have longevity like Molina. Also, should probably wait to see Davis succeed in MLB before planning to build the team around him.
And with that, Vazquez can no longer be traded.
Some incredible luck on the ground rule double.
Then, boom.
Unfracking believable. And if it didn’t bounce exactly right, Renfroe might have grabbed it before it bounced back over the fence.
I feel bad for the Rays but at least it was a two run homer so if everything remains the same and the Rays run counts the Red Sox still win the game.
Willy wants to stay with the Cubs so just extend him.
I would trade Contreras and Hendricks package. But I feel Cubs need young pitching studs. Maybe Padres have some good prospects
I noticed that too, and I’m wondering how TR missed them in the article. It’d be nice if they could trade from the logjam of prospects they are accumulating, particularly on he infield.
How long will Houston go with a 180 catcher. There may be an opportunity for Cubs to get with them on a trade for Contreas. Like what I have seen regarding pitcher Javier?
They better not trade him. Sign him to a 50 yr deal