The White Sox only received 28 innings from Carlos Rodon over the season’s final two months, as the left-hander missed time due to a shoulder issue and was regularly pulled after five innings even when he was healthy enough to take the mound. Part of that is likely rooted in the White Sox’ runaway lead in the American League Central, which allowed them to take a cautious approach with the resurgent southpaw. Still, his health has been something of a question mark for the Sox in recent days.
General manager Rick Hahn told reporters today the club remains “optimistic” that Rodon “will be able to contribute and help us over the course of the next month” (Twitter link via Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun Times). Rodon will only pitch once during the American League Division Series, per Hahn, and they’ll assess his workload and availability on a series-per-series basis throughout the duration of their playoff run. ESPN’s Jesse Rogers adds that Rodon will throw in the bullpen tomorrow, which will give the team additional clarity on his status.
White Sox brass is currently debating whether Lucas Giolito or Lance Lynn will start the first game of the ALDS against Houston, Hahn added (Twitter link via The Athletic’s James Fegan). The GM called his two standout righties virtually “interchangeable” and said the debate will likely boil down to which they feel is better equipped to start a second time in the Division Series, if needed. Hahn also provided an update on first baseman Jose Abreu, who missed time this weekend with a non-Covid illness but is expected to be ready for workouts leading up to Thursday’s Game 1 showdown against the Astros.
The uncertainty surrounding Rodon is not only significant with regard to the imminent playoffs but also with the offseason looming. Rodon signed a one-year, $3MM deal to return to Chicago after being non-tendered and, for much of the season, was one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball. The 28-year-old made his first All-Star team, pitched to a 2.31 first-half ERA in 89 2/3 innings, and looked to be in the midst of breaking out as the ace the Sox hoped he could be when selecting him third overall back in 2014.
Rodon blanked the Astros over seven near-perfect frames in his first post-All-Star appearance on July 18, punching out 10 batters and lowering his ERA to 2.14. That, however, was the last time he’d throw more than five innings in a single outing this season. Rodon was on the injured list from Aug. 10-26 due to fatigue in his left shoulder, and while he was effective in his return from that IL stint, he averaged just 73.6 pitches and 4 2/3 innings per outing upon activation.
Regardless of how the postseason goes, it’d be hard for the White Sox to not give strong consideration to a qualifying offer for Rodon, who demonstrated the extent of his upside with 132 2/3 frames of 2.37 ERA ball, a 34.6 percent strikeout rate and a 6.7 percent walk rate. That’ll present Rodon with an interesting decision. Accepting a qualifying offer and then repeating that success with greater health in 2022 would position him for a massive free-agent payday. On the other hand, he’d perhaps command interest on lower-cost multi-year deals right now, and taking the one-year qualifying offer comes with the risk that further injury would sap his future market.
For now, simply performing in the postseason and giving his club the best chance possible at a deep run will be the lefty’s obvious priority. That said, he’ll be a fascinating qualifying offer and free-agent case when the time does come.
Hm. Personally I would keep Rodon on the roster and leave Keuchel off it. You have two long relievers in Kopech and Lopez who could come in right away and go deep in the game if Rodon gets shelled early in a start. But the fact that both Rodon and Keuchel are LHP could mean Keuchel makes it.
And Lynn and Giolito are not interchangeable. You start Lynn.
I think Giolitto is the ace of the team…. His performance in last years playoff start was huge… He has had had some great games against Houston in his career as well… Lynn has been the most consistent, but I think the two are absolutely interchangeable… The White Sox have to feel great about each and every pitching matchup they have throughout the playoffs… the team is built to win
Lucas gets game one with me. Lynn goes two.
Cease at home.
Tony gave all the credit to the players and said that they love to practice.
@CalcentinesBlancos
I agree, I’d go with Lynn if it were my call, though it’s not the end of the world if Giolito starts G1.
And yes, I’d keep Rodon on the roster unless there’s no way he could pitch (for whatever reason).
The only way I would keep Keuchel on the roster at this point is if it were between him and Foster for the last spot. Keuchel and anyone else that was on the 28-man roster, I’d go with the other guy.
Giolito G1 b/c he’s been really good vs Hou last couple times. Lynn iffy at best matchup.
Start Giolito. I’m a big fan of Lynn but he is under .500 vs the Astros and has lost 4 straight to them
@soxitis Exactly. Giolito’s last game vs the Astros was a 3 hit complete game. He was a better pitcher than Lynn in both August and September. I’m not confident they make the right choice, but Giolito proved beyond a doubt that he is up for the big stage with his 2 hit outing vs the A’s last October. He should be their G1 starter.
If the Sox are smart they will avoid a QO to Rodon, but be aggressive to sign him back. Its to his advantage to get the QO out of the way, when it would be giving him a 17MM raise, and then not have to worry about it if he has a healthy year, after the uncertainty of the players agreement is over.
If the Sox are smart they’ll QO him. You’re not getting him on a cheaper deal than that. He’s flashed enough to make that a formality. You can offer him a QO and negotiate a long term deal as well. There’s no way you let him hit the market without some sort of comp attached.
Yourcommentlol2
He will test the market. I think he could get a good contract elsewhere
There is little to no risk for a win-now team like the Sox to give him the QO.
Yes, and for a guy averaging 105 innings per year (2020 adjusted for 60 game schedule) to accept the QO and more than double his career earnings. I doubt he would attract even a modestly lengthy and lucrative contract given his lack of durability, current injury issues, and the QO attached to him (like why sign for 4/$40 when you could get 1/$20 and see what happens afterward with no QO?).
The risk is spending money where you don’t need to. The White Sox have Giolito/Lynn/Keuchel/Cease already assured spots in the rotation and Kopevh should be in the rotation as well. There is zero reason to essentially offer Rodon a $20 million dollar contract when that money can be spent solidifying 2B/RF/DH/Utility bench player/Backup Catcher and whatever else the team needs
2B! For real….. and unless you can find a SS to move over, I don’t think you can find a better option for 22’ then Ceasar Hernandez
The reason is he pitched exceptionally well this year and letting him leave for nothing would be irresponsible for a major market team. The White Sox have plenty of money and have a low payroll. They’re in a win-now mode. If they’re not willing to make a one-year financial commitment, then it’s fair to question if they really want to win. They can keep Rodon and fix other areas at the same time.
I have no interest in hearing Rodon is “blocking” Kopech and Crochet. Highly assumptive to think they’ll be effective starters when the White Sox did nothing to begin integrating them into being starters.
Teams need to plan at least eight or nine starters deep. Plenty of innings for all. The White Sox are stronger with Rodon, Kopech and Crochet contributing in 2022.
Rodon has earned his raise, the only reason why CHW wouldn’t offer him a QO is if they are certain he can’t physically pitch for them next season.
If he can pitch in the playoffs and do well, I’d give him to QO. If he can’t, that’s a red flag I can’t ignore, and I’d be very hesitant to keep him at that price.
BTW, what a bargain he turned out to be, even if he doesn’t pitch again this season.
I think they should wait till after the postseason to determine whether or not to give him a QO, or negotiate a new contract. Who knows what he has left in his arm? He could tear something and miss another year or more.
How many years do you need to see Rodon collecting money for not pitching? I’m thrilled that he was as good as he was in the first half. Did anyone see his numbers in the last game he pitched? Topped out at what…93mph? That’s after two weeks off? To give him that much cash for one year knowing his history is irresponsible. See how he performs in the playoffs…if he performs at all…and then try to sign him if he has anything left. If he walks, he walks.
He topped out at 93? That’s a huge red flag after the guy was consistently throwing 99 and dominating all season…. Maybe I wasn’t following his last couple of starts too intently, but I thought he was still pitching pretty well and striking people out?
From a business standpoint you offer him the QO if you feel like he’s going to turn it down. He’s a Boras client, right? Don’t they normally decline and then wait for the best offer? When he rejects it, you shake hands wishing each other well, and move on with an extra pick.
Rodon simply has fatigue.You get sore when the fatigue arrives.
He literally had 0 innings built up in arm before the season.
Believe me” the way the Sox org handled him this yr,will go a long way in re-signing him.
Hell” even Boras gave the Sox front office a shout out during the season.
Definitely start Gio in game 1. He’s healthier and with a much better history against Houston. No doubt that’s the way they go.
I would be happy to let Rodon go. I wouldn’t give him a QO offer. I’d be shocked if that guy ever threw 160 innings in a season. I don’t trust his health at all. If they give him a QO then I will be wishing that he turns it down.
I’d rather the Sox pony up the dough to sign Max Scherzer and get it right. Then, get a RFer and a second baseman. Spend on Semien.
Do NOT pick up Kimbrel’s option. Save that dough.
People seem to forget Rodon blocks Kopech and Crochet from their natural Starting Positions. I think it’s risky and somewhat counterproductive to offer him a QO with his injury track record.
The White Sox know the condition of his shoulder better than any team. If they think this is simply fatigue, which would be understandable, then absolutely offer the QO. Rodon should accept. He’d get a great one-year salary, he’d eliminate any draft compensation if he declared himself a free agent after 2022 (assuming that doesn’t get changed with the new CBA), he could build up his innings even more before hitting the open market, and of course show that 2021 was no fluke.
Teams will definitely be intrigued if he goes the free agent route this offseason, but they’ll still be concern about his shoulder and injury history, likely limiting the length of his contract. A solid 2022 will eliminate many of those concerns. Worse things to do than bet on yourself with $19M guaranteed.
‘Carlos Rodon’ and ‘with greater health’ do not really go together in a sentence, unfortunately.
He’ll start game 4, maybe 3, depending on where we are both with the bullpen and the series. Lynn game two goes badly and uses the bullpen up, Cease pitches game 3. Lynn goes 7 strong, Rodon may do game 3 if Lopez or Kopech hasn’t pitched (Rodon 3-5 IP, then hand to Lopez if shorter and Kopech if longer).
I’m not sure Rodon wouldn’t be better off as a closer long term … but he still wants to start, and he’s earned the right to try. If next year he’s back and again has trouble with fatigue, he ought to convert to reliever – he’d be a shut down 8-9th inning guy no problem.
I’ve actually had similar thoughts on Rodon in regards to being a shutdown reliever. I was calling for the White Sox to move him into an “Andrew Miller” type role when he’d come in and work two plus innings of quality relief years ago. John Smoltz had a year after being a well established top tier Starter of closing games. He was dominant. It let him contribute greatly while building up his arm strength coming off of a serious arm injury. Rodon’s stuff (when healthy) is definitely on par with the best in the game. Not too sure the ego would allow the change in roles though. He does deserve to start in regards to his work this season. But if you’re only capable of half a season worth (so to speak) of a workload, it certainly begs the question if he can ever manage 200 innings. I mean the White Sox have pampered him, and yet they’re still in a conundrum. Sorry about the mini novel!
He pitched 2 2/3 innings and gave up 2 runs. Could’ve been worse.