When the Astros and Carlos Correa talked contract extension last spring, the shortstop said the Astros made him offers of six years and $120MM, and then five years and $125MM. While Correa is just hours away from the free agent market, the Astros are still trying to retain his services, and Mark Berman of FOX 26 (Twitter link) reports that the club’s last offer is a five-year deal worth $160MM.
This would be the largest contract Houston has ever given a player, topping the team’s five-year, $151MM extension with Jose Altuve. The offer’s $32MM average annual value would also be the 10th-highest AAV of any contract in baseball history, making it a pretty significant commitment on the Astros’ part.
However, it is also drastically below what Correa is likely to receive on the open market. Correa is only entering his age-27 season, and he has already indicated that he’ll be looking for a pact in the nine- or ten-year range. It isn’t out of the question that Correa might even hit $32MM (or at least come close) in average annual value on such a long-term deal, so it doesn’t seem like Houston’s offer is going to inspire a late-minute change of mind on Correa’s part.
In fact, there is enough of a gap between the Astros’ offer and Correa’s asking price that it’s probably safe to assume the team didn’t have much expectation of Correa actually accepting the deal. There could be some public relations logistics at play, since the team can now present that $32MM AAV as a “we tried” gesture to fans upset over Correa’s departure.
However, the offer could also be interpreted as something of a public sign to other free agents about what the Astros are willing to spend on a top-tier free agent, if not Correa himself. The Astros haven’t gone beyond a five-year contract with any player during Jim Crane’s ownership of the team, and while Crane recently said “things could change” in that regard, it is possible they might be willing to only go as high as six years, judging by their initial offer to Correa. Houston does appear to be willing to make up for the lack of contractual length with higher average annual salaries, which could be of interest to other players. A free agent who is already past age 30, for instance, probably isn’t counting on a contract beyond five or six guaranteed years, and thus might be keen on a relatively shorter-term deal that promises a higher AAV.
Lol really? He’s getting 200 million easily. He’s an absolute stud. Lindor got 340 and he sucks sooo
That {should} be irrelevant
Yes a market develops, but a bad contract isn’t necessarily going to be a bar
I like the offer Houston is making here, ill pay you top tier for 5 years and close the book-
Can he get 200+ for more years…sure…maybe…..but Houston is setting up potential boundaries like all good clubs should do – They can expand on the framework later, but If I was a Astro fan id be happy at the restraints being shown early.
Correa is not a 10 year worthy ink Imo like a Harper or Betts, 5 is much more palatable and can still be traded if it goes sideways early with player or team
Houston is a tax free state, they don’t have the media with a zoom all over him, his family and friends for years live there, trainers and summo massage is available and know him too no need to scream I’m hurt, ill or injured, etc.
His war is overrated, not considering Games Played.
Houston isn’t a state.
Houston is in a tax-free state regarding income.
Check out the property taxes people pay.
Only if you’re pregnant in Texas
Yeah people see Tax-Free and think its truly tax free… Tax man always gets paid no matter what…
Texas is in the bottom tier of tax-burdened states. No state income tax. No personal property taxes.
If the State turns blue as expected, that will change. Especially with the tax plan Democrats want to implement.
Whatever advantage the Astros will go away eventually.
Betts and Harper aren’t even worth 10 years…
That’s why Harper got 13…
What @In Stearns We Trust just said could be a big reason so many teams are refusing to let the Mets interview some of their front office people. @Cap & Crunch may be right about the fact the Lindor contract SHOULD not matter. You better believe all these shortstops on the free agent market this year are going to walk into negations and say exactly what @In Stearns We Trust just said. “Francisco Lindor got $340 million. Look at Lindor’s numbers. Now look at my numbers. I’m better than him. I deserve more money.” Cohen made things a lot more complicated and probably a lot more expensive for other teams by handing out that ridiculously terrible contract. I doubt they want to do him any favors now. Last season he single handedly and artificially inflated the market for players by drastically overpaying one who wasn’t even that great. Now it seems he’s stuck on an island by himself because no one cares what his organization is going through. You can’t blame them. He clearly doesn’t care about them either. It’s going to be interesting to watch free agency kick off while Cohen is still looking for a PoBo, a GM and a manager. He needs a lot and doesn’t exactly have the top of the barrel to pick from. That whole Lindor contract was patently stupid. There’s no way Lindor would make over $200 million now so Cohen would have saved at least $140 million by waiting. Better yet, Cohen could have saved millions and actually replaced Lindor with a better shortstop like Correa or Seager. At this point Simean looks a lot better too. Simean isn’t even going to come close to $200 million. He might now though since in negotiations he gets to point to Lindor’s numbers as a reference. Thanks to Cohen.
Tldr: Lindor contract kinda ruined baseball.
My comment: I agree, mostly.
One foolish signing rarely changes the market much, if at all. Teams can just as easily point to the Tatis deal and assert that’s the benchmark.
Still, what a ridiculous deal. The Mets, extremely well-upholstered at SS throughout the organization, bought the right to pay Lindor $22.3m in 2021 at a cost of 20 years of controlled talent (minus whatever you thought Carrasco was worth). In Lindor they bought a guy in significant decline since 2018, they bid against themselves, they put themselves in a corner by spending so much to get him just for 2021, thinking that meant they had to outbid themselves to keep him. Not to mention wildly overpaying just prior to the offseason where the glut of star SS would be unprecedented.
It was bizarre to watch. So bizarre I had to stop posting at a certain Mets fan site, where prior to the trade most understood how sideways getting Lindor was, giving all the other holes the team had. But nearly everyone immediately fell in line, lauding the deal. It’s painful to watch mass Stockhold Syndrome beat a bunch of people senseless.
His injury history and inconsistencies in performance show he’s not elite and doesn’t deserve $300M+… but I’m sure some desperate team will pay it… and regret it
You clearly don’t really know what you’re talking about when it comes to Lindor. For starters he clearly doesn’t have a injury history. Secondly what inconsistencies are you reffering too exactly?
I think he’s referring to Correa.
@TMQ As for Lindor—what? He’s now missing 20-25 games a year in full seasons. He’s also been in steep decline in each of the last three seasons.
It’s admittedly funny watching people tie themselves in knots over this, but you’re not even trying.
He’s way overrated. Wait and see what happens when he gets the big dollars. Mr. “It’s my time” will fade.
I don’t normally say things like that, but in Correa’s case, I tend to believe it. I think he’s all about CC and as soon as he cashes in he’ll start to decline.
That’s the exact reason I don’t want the cubs to touch him. Go after pitching. Then see what the market is like with the SS available
@Barelybreathin Correa’s not ‘way overrated’ (that phrase doesn’t really mean anything in this context), but he is just a 4.66 WAR / year player from 2018-2021, pro rating 2020 to a full season.
That’s a very good player, but it’s hardly a superstar. If he could play 155 games a year he’d be up near Betts-Trout territory, or peak Semien, but he obviously can’t. Not regularly. And paying him $100-150m extra just because he happened to have his one durable season the year of his FA isn’t all that sensible, as you know.
So pay him like a 4.66 WAR player turning 27 years of age for 2022, who sounds like a mercenary.
27 – 4.7 WAR
28 – 4.7
29 – 4.2
30 – 3.6
31 – 3.0
32 – 2.4
33 – 1.7
34 – 1.0
That’s 25.3 WAR, or roughly $200m depending on how you project future revenues and salaries to go. You might dock him on the assumption that his lack of durability to date portends greater such problems in the future. Or you might look at 2020-21 and decide his recent durability portends better fortune in that regard.
But it’s hard to see how you get him anywhere near a $300m deal, from a team’s pov.
Cap’s points are valid. Also, keep in mind, the only statistic of value is his defense. His offense is bloated with up to three years of cheating. That’s going to be a factor. In fact, it may be the very reason Houston’s offer is what it is.
Nonetheless, you’re not going to see the Lindor contract be surpassed imho. Owners are simply going to say, “Just because Cohen is dumb doesn’t mean I have to be. Go see him if you want that kind of money.” I’ll take the under.
Boo flicking hoo cheating like a Yankee. You second rate teams and ignorant fans cheated, then cheated some more. It was so bad that MLB closed and covered up your crimes because you haven’t won anything in 20 years.
Yankee Chlipper Judge is just another smuck outfielder. Your pitching lacks any credibility. The only thing you have going for you is flash bravado.
The fans cheated? Lol. Does your therapist know you are delusional and your meds need adjustment?
Your post is nonsensical and seething with jealousy. I can only assume you are a Mets fan since red Sox fans have no reason to be jealous.
Pitching lacks credibility and yet had the 5th best era in the AL.
Judge is what?
MLB covered up what? That’s actually not how it works but ok. The world need bi-polar people too.
As a yankee fan I don’t know if I should be amused by your post or frightened for society.
Lindor has proven to be far better to this point in their respective careers.
A quick compare tells the facts…
Correa age 20-26, Lindor age 21-27
Lindor: +150 games played over the same number of seasons 2015-2021.(more durable/reliable, less injury prone)
Correa: 2015 ROY, Lindor was 2nd
In those additional 150 games played Lindor has produced the following…
Lindor: +218 hits
Lindor: +143 Runs
Lindor: +45 doubles
Lindor: +10 triples
Lindor: +25 Home Runs
Lindor: +76 Stolen Bases
That’s one heck of a season worth of stats!!
Awards and recognition…
Lindor: 4X all star (Correa 2X)
Lindor: 2X gold glove (Correa 0)
Lindor: 2X Silver Slugger (Correa 0)
Lindor: 3X top 10 MVP voting. (Correa 0)
Negligible stat differences…
Lindor: BA +.001
Correa: OBP +.013
Correa: SLG: +.003
Correa: OPS +.016
Why no post season stats?
After all that’s the goal, right?
Does post season not mean anything?
Do those performances not add any value?
Post seasons are never a sure thing for individual players since it takes a full balanced team to make the playoffs and advance to DS, CS, WS.
Correa has played 79 playoff games, Lindor 25.
However both players had the opportunity to play 162 games each season 2015-2021 with the exception of 2020 pandemic season.
If you are going to push Post Season performance don’t include this past one. I don’t think he will have a huge market if he expects 8-10 years. There are so many other quality SS for less money and years.
No they dont.. How about that .624 OPS in 21 WS, or the .368 OPS in 2019 ALDS.
For context CC has played in 16 postseason series, in 5 of them CC has put put above avg to elite OPS, in 11 series CC has been avg to non existent.
@5toolmvp. Your point is that Lindor has been more durable and nothing more. Correa has been the superior player when healthy and Lindor is starting to have his injury issues now. I’d take Correa.
The question isn’t who’s better tho…. it’s a matter of what Carlos will get on the free market in the next upcoming months
Although it’s easy to draw direct lines to each contractually and on the field I don’t think that’s how this will play out in the end.
Lindor was inked with a heavy PR/NY/Cohen plopping his junk out on the table influence that isn’t going to be in play this year for any of the big Ss. It should be viewed as an aberration not a benchmark and I think it will be by Gm’s come winter
Oh really??? So you’re saying IF Correa has those extra 150 games he would produce the same or exceed those stats? That’s hilarious.
Correa could get the 25 HR but I highly doubt he would get any of the other stats, “maybe” 45 doubles. All the rest are out of reach…but sure he would close the gap.
That doesn’t even touch on the awards differences I posted. Lindor 4,2,2,3 vs Correa 2,0,0,0.
@5toolMVP. You said it in your post yourself. Correa has better rate stats so he would be better if he could stay healthy plus Lindor has been declining for years now. I’d take Correa as my shortstop for the next 10 years over Lindor every day of the week. Lindor has been a slightly above average player and arguably a clubhouse cancer for a couple years now.
@tribe. I said “Lindor has been far better to this point in their careers”… health being the main factor for that and I’ve shown what Lindor did while Correa was missing 150 games over the same time period.
What are you talking about?!? Where exactly did I say Correa “has better rate stats so he would be better…”? Correa has negligible stat advantages… .013/.003/.016 is nothing significant.
Hahahaha “IF he could stay healthy…” that’s a huge IF to put $250-350m on.
He managed to have a healthy WALK YEAR… how many times have we seen that and player X returns to the same old patterns AFTER the mega-contract is signed.
NO TEAM will get 5 healthy (145+ games/yr) years out of Correa from 2022-2032. Bank on that.
Btw I do think 5/160 is low but I wouldn’t go over 6 years for Correa mainly due to his injury history. 5/180 or 6/215 is what I would max offer. I’d hate for my team to be tied to a 8-10 year deal with that higher than average injury risk player.
Correa is not superior. He’s not even better. Heck, he’s not even the top SS on the FA market.
He has had 1 season with injury issues. You’re fabricating a false narrative.
Twice in seven years he has played more than 110 games. So unless he has a part time job and can’t make it to all the games, I’m guessing he has an injury history.
Lindor has been good, signed this huge extension then fell over the cliff. Already Met fans can’t believe what they spent on him and the way he played this year, and to know they have him for the next 10 years is another reason other teams will stop doing 10 year contracts. Can you say Albert with the angels and what they got out of him. Not even useful with 3 years remaining on his contract, couldn’t even run anymore. Sad
Did you not see how badly Lindor tanked this year?
Lindor has played 150 more games than Correa and is worth 3 less WAR LOL!
7 WAR CorreGOAT > 5 WAR Lindoormat
True…Which only happened in Correa’s WALK year. Before 2021 he was trailing Lindor in career WAR.
Pretty poor excuse for being the worse SS
@5toolMVP Pointing to career numbers–oh, gee, that just happens to do your pov an enormous favor–when no projection system in the world goes back more than four seasons betrays either a fundamental ignorance, or a wholesale lack of intellectual integrity.
If the Mets paid 300+ mil for Linder he should shoot for the moon
The Lindor argument hurts Correa for a couple of reasons. 1) Lindor has a better history of staying healthy and as such has better career offensive numbers. And 2) Lindor underperformed under the weight of that new contract and the limelight of New York.
Teams will need to take into consideration Correa’s injury woes and the possibility of huge offensive regression if the fit doesn’t seem right. Correa should stay in Houston. A five year contract allows him to once again test the market after his age 31 season so he could still get another similar deal later
“The limelight of New York” is a strange assertion, and one that seems to lack any actual, credible support.
Yes but Lindor will suck for 10 years and the Mets will pay him to suck for 10 years.
Correa is a “stud’ but has trouble staying healthy. And you saw what he did against the Red Sox and the Braves. NOTHING.
Yes and no. Yes, Lindor is nowhere near the player that should be garnering that kind of money or contract. No, Correa isn’t worth that, either. These astronomical dollar amounts started with SD Padres and the Tatis, Jr. deal and then with an owner who isn’t a baseball guy and just happens to have deep pockets. I think 75% of us Mets fans were shocked and disappointed that we signed him for 341 million. His performance last year came as no surprise to any of us. Just because we’re Mets fans doesn’t mean we approve of what their FO does.
@NYMetsFanatic As a fan I was shocked and disappointed the Mets dealt 20 years of controllable talent for the right to pay Lindor $22.3m in 2021, then bid against themselves to sign Lindor for 2022 and thereafter.
Adding a star SS given it was the organization’s one strength was completely tangential to what the team needed, given all the holes in the roster.
The 2020 Mets had a 40 WAR nucleus (ie an 88 win team for the following season), $100m to spend just on 2021 payroll once Cano departed, and they somehow thought committing to Lindor, when the team was obviously going to be out of it short of spending $300m in 2022, 2023, and 2024, was a good idea.
It betrayed a new team owner who was fundamentally clueless, who had spent the previous decade hoping to buy the team but without learning even the basics of roster construction.
Imagine buying a $2.4 bn enterprise but somehow not having a shadow front office in place by no later than 2018. Astonishing.
But Lindor didn’t suck at the time he was signed when you look at his body of work. And to compare to Correa it’s not Lindor now but Lindor when he was signed.
Baseball fans make the most brilliant general managers ever … With the benefit of hindsight.
Most people looked at 2020 as an outlier because it was the covid shortened season.
So prior to that who was Lindor? A 25-26 year old shortstop who won 2 gold gloves and had three seasons in a row with an .OPS over .840. He had three seasons of 34-39 home runs. If that sucks please tell me the shortstop who doesn’t?
Of course 10 years and $341 million was a silly contract. There are no guarantees in life. Mike trout, Tattis, Acuna, Ohtani or any other superstar could sign a contract and fall off a cliff. A stud pitcher can be best in baseball one day and blow out his arm the next but the reality is Lindor looked like an elite shortstop at the time of signing. To suggest otherwise speaks volumes about your own reality.
@Darryl Rose In fact, no. Excuses aside, Lindor was in obvious decline in both 2019 and 2020 after his superb peak in 2018. Why would you ever bet the ranch, as it were, on such a player, particularly when you’re well-fixed at the position, were a contender waiting to be made, but had far more serious holes on the roster?
I was hardly alone in quitting fan sites for the month following that ridiculous trade then signing. It was patently absurd, a number of us said so, and we were saying _even if it worked_ it was entirely the wrong move.
What a pity.
Nowhere close to what he’ll get if Lindor is getting $34o million
But who’s offering $340? Think about it. The Tigers? Orioles? If he wants to stay and win, 5/160 is a good deal to take. In 5 yrs when contracts are more ridiculous and he’s 32, he can cash in again
There’s plenty of teams that would offer Correa over $300 million. He’s the best free agent on the market right now. Teams don’t pay big money to free agents who are 32.
Not the best free agent on the market, Dan.
Who is the better free agent?
But the big factor is he wants to go to a winning team not a last place team
Very much doubt it. Yankees don’t do that anymore. And they’re the only SS needy team with those kinds of dollars available. Maybe the Phillies.
Max Scherzer
hell, might not be the best SS on the market…
I think plenty of teams is an over statement. But it only takes one to make it a reality.
On that note he should put in a 3 year opt out clause so he hits the market at 30. If he keeps doing what he did in 21 he will cash in again. At 32 people may be weary unless he goes scorched earth in those five years.
Very good idea indeed luda –
Slam that early money (35 AAV) and get a player opt out after 3 years option . You get max pop if you trust your skills enough and even get a chance at a new scene/team in 3 years if you desire or just decline . Especially with inflation and the possible cap lift incoming~
7/210 w 105 guaranteed for first 3 years and his player option as well that offseason – I think he signs that
Every team in baseball can offer him $300, easily. However, many owners choose not because they’re cheap.
@bucsfan0004 Well, no one’s giving a then-32 year old SS 5/$140m in 2027. The hope from teams is that they’ll get a couple of 7 win seasons before having to toss out the last few years of a ten year deal, and that hope is why they’re willing to go to 10/300-341m. If Correa wants the most guaranteed money over the life of his career, by far his best bet is to hold out for a 300m deal this offseason.
If he signs for 5/160m he’s very unlikely to get close to 300m total. The Braves don’t even want to pay Freeman more than 5/140m at age 31-32, never mind a SS who can’t stay in the lineup in his mid20s.
He’s a stud, You mean he’s a 2 x 4?
Didn’t look like a stud at the WS
Are you framing him?
Framed for 2017?
It was an attempt at “construction humor”.
Blame, @Curly.
Nailed it!
Oh sure, blame poor old simple minded Curly. I’m board with the whole situation.
Pretty much.
However, it now seems you have a measure of frustration about the my post’s design. We should just cut it, before anybody gets too wired up.
I saw this coming
You wood have.
The odds are Correa is not going back to Houston.
Correa is going to turn that offer down faster than a woman invited to participate in the “Win a Date with Trevor Bauer” reality show.
Well done!
Lololol
There would be women to enter the Trevor Bauer show just. So they can sue him later how do you think that lawyer suing Dashaun Watson has so many clients.
Yes because clearly the 20 women must be lying. Men always tell the truth in these situations.
#BelieveMen
@Darryl Rose Of course not, but no group always does anything. Of course, anyone of intellectual integrity is obliged to acknowledge the truth told by every NCVS ever published, that women are by far the primary instigators of DV. Or every DHHS Child Maltreatment report ever published, that mothers acting alone are, by far, the primary abusers of children.
Of course, people who write what you write will typically, angrily reject even the most fact-based of assertions, so we have that to look forward to.
WHEEL… OF… SHORTSTOPS!!!
He’s probably looking for double that. 10/320
Go on Mariners. Make your big splash! 9/270
Well give him Rendon money and then watch him when he heads to the Injured List
Tigers just had their plan punched in the nose.
Overpay. WAR I think is a valuable tool for analysing a player but Correa really isn’t worth 160 mil over 5 years, especially with all the great shortstops in the game right now. I mean, he bats 6th on a world series team, thats not 30 mil worthy. Hes also always hurt. (Also I do think Lindor was way over paid as well)
He bats 6th because the Astros have the best lineup in the AL…. Kyle Tucker hit 7th and he’d probably hit second or third on 50% of the league.
Is Toronto no longer in the American League?
WAR is just one tool but in no way should be the overriding factor. Correa is more than just a great player. He is also a born leader, something that is evident when watching him play. He’s like Brandon Crawford in that way. More valuable than what the numbers suggest, and the numbers he puts up aren’t bad at all.
WAR is BS. How can that really be evaluated.
There is a formula for it. Just because you don’t understand doesn’t make it irrelevant
War don’t consider games played.
WAR is a counting stat, so it does in fact consider games played.
We keep hearing arguments that Player X isn’t worth Z amount of dollars. He’s worth whatever a team is willing to pay. Perhaps the folks signing the contracts know a bit more than we do regarding financial standings.
They do, and your right YBC
It’s a pretty pure market as far as markets go {at least in theory}
Player/Agent – Team- pen/paper are all that should be necessary.
I hate when public opinion get’s toiled in by either side in pursuit of money- You’d like to think of the process as pure and unfettered
Exactly, @YBC.
Whether it’s construction or ball, “market value” is the number on the contract everyone signs their name to.
It’s always hilarious, the idea that rich people are inevitably smart. About as hilarious as that something is worth whatever someone is willing to pay for it, followed by a claim that that’s the end of the discussion.
Correa also doesn’t have that WAR in reality. It’s fake, bolstered by his “leadership” while cheating. He’s going to regress without the CF camera and with aging.
@Metsin7 And the batting champ hit 7th for them. Does that mean he’s not a batting champ, or that defense counts when it comes to making out a batting order every day?
Correa, like all high variance players, gets argued about a lot, but his median projection, acc to any credible system, is roughly 25 WAR for the rest of his career. That’s roughly $200m in on-field, baseball ‘value,’ given what teams are willing to pay for wins in free agency.
You might get 40 wins, and you might get 10, so a lot of this depends on your club’s appetite for risk. A club desperate for wins but short on money should probably have signed Semien. Correa at anything close to 300m is unlikely to get you the ‘over,’ whereas Semien, capable of playing 162 games a season and winning GGs at a new position, is probably the better bet to put up three 7-8 win seasons before the inevitable decline.
As solid of a contract that is per year, he can get another 5 years on top of that probably. 10yr deal, at least 8.
So I guess we know Mark Berman is on Jim Crane’s payroll, getting this info out there. I hope Correa and his agent hung up on them in one second. What a joke.
Life changing money, in a state without income taxes even, to stay somewhere he says he loves.
He’d almost certainly be leaving money on the table if he took it, though.
He’s overrated, not worth that kind of money
I agree
Best SS in the AL two years runnin bucko
2020? Nope lol
Not sure XB would agree. Nor Bo Bichette.
The Mets will offer him the job of GM, manager and position player and pay him 15 mil a year for the rest of his life.
Big difference between Lindor and Correa is their durability before signing. Lindor had full seasons under his belt. Correa had several partial seasons and a half season. Only the last two has he been considered “durable”. As a GM that is my main concern when trying to sign one of these mega contract guys.
Also NYC teams can pay, where teams like Atlanta, Chicago, Milwaukee, even SF etc, can’t or will not pay
Freeman, Heyward, Braun/Yelich, Posey. These guys were all paid very, very well by their respective teams and set new contract precedents at the time of their signings.
SF prints money in that park.
There is one more big difference: Correa’s offensive numbers are fictional.
And Lindor bounced back in the second half of the year. Gotta get over the initial pressure of a contract like that. He’s human.
@padam He didn’t, of course. The entirety of his second half was due to his 3 HR game v the Yankees on 9/12 and the last few games of the season.
Not to mention the random claim that he folded to pressure of the contract, when the contract hadn’t even kicked in, and as if that kind of folding is better than other kinds. Imagine that guy in the WS, then.
“We tried but he turned us down.” We have seen it all before.
Among this year’s free agents, Correa probably means more to his team’s on-field performance than anyone. Where he goes could well alter the balance of power in MLB, starting with an Astros team that won’t be the same without him.
Do you realize how much money Houston has off the books this season? If they lose Correa, it wouldn’t shock me if they go after Marcus Semien. It’s the years, not the dollars that are the issues. If they replaced him with Semien it shouldn’t be that much of a step back.
If they signed Semien, they’d be paying a 31-year-old for a career year he had for someone else. All things considered, I would rather have Correa and it isn’t close. He has enormous value, particularly to the team that will be trying to replace him.
If Houston signed Semien, they wouldn’t have to worry about signing another player to cover the 40 games/season Correa misses…. contract year excepted
The contract year theory is a myth. Correa is younger than Semien and a better player. A year ago, no one was willing to give Semien and long-term deal and fans here were posting that he’s overrated.
They would also be able to re-employ a masseuse and not have to worry about ribs getting fractured.
And Semien is overrated still. He just had his career year. Never see it again.
@YC I think that was pretty flukey injury for Correa. I’ve seen past pics of Jeter’s personal masseuse and that women could wrestle in the WWE against men.
Typically, I feel I’m living a pretty good life. But when I read “personal masseuse” I do wonder about possible upgrades, uh?
Mine is pretty drab. I buy a new bath loofah whenever I want to feel special.
You guys are killing me; thanks, I needed that laugh.
@Cey Hey “A career year.” You mean two 7-8 WAR seasons in the last two 162 game seasons, from the most valuable position player in the majors by WAR from 2019-2021, and probably 2018-2021?
That ‘career year’?
@jjd002 If they replace Correa with Semien, they’re very likely to improve in 2022.
Do people still not realize Semien’s been the most valuable position player in the game for the last 3 years?
Nice offer but no way he’s accepting it. Correa is thinking much bigger and he’ll get it.
I wonder, if teams leaked all of their offers would it keep player salaries lower or higher?
Maybe double that and you have a deal.
You know he trying to get 7-10 years and isn’t going to want to accept half of what Lindor got when he is the better player. Pride & ego will win out, it always does. Outside of Bauer name another star that took a short term big money deal with their first try at free agency.
I would love Correa on the Dodgers though it won’t happen. Fans would be appalled at first but would get over it in a hurry. I don’t care about that other stuff. He’s just the kind of baseball player I want on my team. I’ve liked him from the beginning and never felt that way about Lindor.
Teams never learn. 10-12 year contracts is how we end up with having to watch 40 year Albert Pujols and 37 year old Miggy Caberra struggle. Just wait, we’ll get to watch a 40 year old Bryce Harper too.
Over their life, those contracts pay for themselves. Mickey Mantle and Willie Mays struggled at the end as well and it wasn’t a problem.
@ Cey Hey;
At least 80% of long-term contracts will be a problem for teams today……
First off – Mantle and Mays were not on long-term contracts that went up each year at the end of their careers. They were on one year contracts. As they aged and got worse their raises per year went down.
Each year I subscribe more to the Tampa Bay theory of running teams.
Look at the Lindor / Correa / Seager situation. Lindor has been hurt some over the years, as has Seager and Correa. The Rays had Willy Adames, but they also had Wander Franco and Taylor Walls coming up. They also had Joey Wendle that can play SS. So they traded Adames for pitching and still had the position covered for a fraction of what Lindor, Correa, Seager get paid. So what if those guys are locked in for 8-10 years – most of those years they’ll slowly be less productive while getting large raises – while their teams are stuck with them so they can’t pick up a guy to replace them that plays 20% worse for 75% less money. The fact is that as their games are going to deteriorate they’ll continue to eat up a bigger percentage of the payroll.
Look at the mistake the Brewers made with Yelich and his long-term contract. The guy has been crap for 2 years, and they have 8 more to go with him. Think of what they could have done with that money.
Look at the hub bub here over Semiens. You are correct. Last year these same fans thought Semiens was garbage. He has a career 2021 year (congrats to Shapiro). Now they think he can be had cheap. LOL He just hired Scott Boras to represent him. There’ll be a sucker team out there that will be stuck with the last 2-3 years of his contract.
Every single year young players come up or some get better. They play for a fraction of the veterans on long-term contracts, and even if they produce less they’re still better value for the buck. Sure, teams like the Rays (A’s, Guardians, Brewers, etc.) have a few years where they have to regroup, but the big spenders do as well.
The more I watch the more I’m convinced that long-term contracts are for suckers.
If that was just the portion before the opt out maybe
See, he’s really really good but this is a bit high for him. He’s young, so I do get it a little. But this is north of what freeman should get offered and freeman is the better player, especially recently.
Freeman is a 1B’man.
So…. I get how it’s easy to comp players in the same position, but the basic fundamental value of a player is how valuable are they in the league and the team they would be playing for. Ie, any team would be better off with freeman over CC. Therefore freeman’s contract should be more as he would be more valuable
Correa isn’t worth any of those offers mentioned, as Lindor, the Mets were stupid and outbid themselves
Different situation. Yes, the Mets outbid themselves on Lindor. But in Correa’s case, there will be genuine bidding throughout the game. While Freddie Freeman is the most accomplished player in this FA class, if you’re looking at possible future production, Correa is the best player in the group. If you’ve built a team you feel is entering an extended window to contend, he’s the guy you sign to push it to the next level.
Not many teams can afford him and the ones than can aren’t given him $30 mil per, the Mets won’t , the Yanks won’t with all the big holes they have, the Dodgers won’t because they can give it to Seager. He’s better off taken the deal Houston is offering.
Given his injury history, this strikes me as totally fair. Elite-level AAV but not for a crazy contract length. And given his age he’d hit free agency again before he’s 35 and can get another significant payday if he’s healthy and productive.
Should have just titled it “Correa to Reject Astros Offer”
The Lindor deal looks bad already and probably won’t be worth it in the end. I don’t think that’s a good comparable.
I do think Correa is worth a 10 year deal, but I don’t like the trend of paying guys the same amount across the length of a contract. I get that it’s related to the way the luxury tax accounts for the AAV due to the current CBA, but I think that’s illogical, given how salaries can fluctuate over the course of a deal.
If I am signing Correa going into his age 27 season and I know he’s looking for a 10 year deal, I’m offering him around 10 years/$330M, give or take $10-15M and I am front loading it. Give him 5 years/$200M followed by 5 years/$130M or something like that and just pay him $40M every season and then shift down to $30M a season and then down to $20M the last couple of years.
Every single player believes they can maintain their peak performance for as long as they’re signed going into any long term career deal and just about every single one of those players becomes an overpaid aging ball and chain on the team budget and the roster by the end of those deals with almost no exceptions, ever.
Correa is human. He won’t be the same player at 34 as he is at 27. Might as well structure a contract to reflect that.
All the contracts should be structured like this.
Pay them for what their value is at that time for that year of their career, going by statistics and patterns. It’s fine to pay a guy top dollar for their age 27 to 30 seasons, but by 31 or 32 guys tend to trend downward in their numbers and most drop off completely by 34 years old and even if they’re still good they’re not as amazingly stupendously great as they were when they initially signed those contracts.
This is why I love the Bryce Harper deal. He starts out under paid, then paid fairly, and by the end with inflation it’ll be a slight overpay, but his steady $26M per season will never break the bank and he probably isn’t too concerned that he never has that one year or that stretch of years where the salary is much higher, because look at how much guaranteed money it is overall.
So, instead of a 10/340, you’d prefer a 6/340?
Excellent post. These long-term deals tend to pay for themselves on the front end. It’s why money-conscious billionaires okay them. They are an investment. If you sign Correa for 10 years and he gives you six all-star caliber seasons, that is a fantastic deal for the team. Especially for a team that is primed to contend. All those years where every game is meaningful is money, money, money.
@TTO Every mega-deal looks bad towards the end. I think it’s a basic assumption among GMs signing off on these contracts. You can structure deals however you want but it doesn’t change AAV for luxury tax purposes. Frontloading contracts provides teams less liquidity to invest the contract money. Furthermore, one dollar paid out today is worth more than a dollar five years later. You’re way overthinking this as an non-accountant.
Likely less than half he’s getting in total value on the open market.
Crane is doing it so he can say he tried, but he’s not trying at all. In a sport of injuries, total value counts.
Fans who are blinded by Astros hatred are missing something about Correa. He’s the type of player you should want on your team for a long time.
I rather have Seager
Not a serious offer.
Take 5/32 now. Then when he turns 32, take 10/60 from the Angels. LOL.
Angels fan here – probably true knowing Moreno. At least he would be a legit 32
A cheater who gets hurt all the time? No thanks.
Seems like a “at least we tried” offer. Can’t see that coming anywhere near to getting a deal done.
LMAO
After Correa exits, Altuve, Gurriel and Bregman are the only remaining offensive players from 2017. Also, their pitching coach since 2011 Strom left today.
32 MM is a lot for a guy who averages 115 games a year. He’d be worth 40 if he played 150 games per year
Risky because of injury history, just like Seager. I don’t blame a team for not wanting to get into a bad contract. 1 player does not win championships in baseball.
just let him go!! Houston must use that money to sign a real # 1 PITCHER. So look for a trade with Arizona to bring Ketel Marte to play SS for the next 3 years.
Absolutely, spend money on pitching, and you can still bring in good players for much less money. Atlanta, San Francisco, good examples from last year.
Pitching is the great difference between good team and winning team.
The Astros simply don’t have the prospect capital to land Marte from the Dbacks.
Dbacks is urged to shake Ketel’s $ 8 million salary. Besides the fact that he only played 90 games in 2021, a trade for him will not be too difficult, sending 2 prospects to Arizona.
Correa is no where near Lindor or Seager! He needs to take the current offer and run to the bank! His injures and inconsistency in hitting when he needs to hit has hurt the team! Yes, he is a great defensive play but he lacks heavily on offense! Those of you who are Astros fans need to learn to not always fall in love with your rookies who come up through the system. The Astros are going to need more than just a shortstop to compete…pitching and some offensive players! You break the bank on Correa you will be a sub par team next year!
I’m a Dodger fan who would take Correa over Seager. It’s not just about the bat. Seager’s days at the shortstop position are numbered. His slide has been noticeable both statistically and via the eye test.
You watch a lot of Houston games? I rather have Seager.
If you assume Correa is not going back to Houston who are the legitimate contenders? Tigers, Mariners, Phillies, Yankees, Rangers. Not a lot of teams willing to spend and (or) have a need for a shortstop ( particularly with Seager, Story and Báez available).
Nationals? I’ve never believed for a second that they’re doing a full teardown. Mike Rizzo is a sharp cookie and he’ll have that team back in the playoffs before the Phillies or Mets get there.
Btw, what you said about “willing to spend” is on the money. All of the teams can afford to pay the stars; many just choose not to. If Correa signs with the Yankees, he will make a world of difference.
He never asked for more money per year.
He asked for more years.
Increasing the AAV but not the years just means that ownership hopes to spin the fan base and say they tried.
Correa hit 5th or 6th for the Astros. If he leaves Houston and signs with weak hitting team they’ll put him in the 3 hole. He won’t be a part of the best hitting team in MLB. We’ll see how he responds then. He’s only a .260 hitter. How can he be worth 10 years and 300 plus million?
If he signs with the Mariners, Phillies or Yankees that is not true
Correa finally had a healthy season. Don’t expect it to continue. Houston knows this. His potential is enormous but the risk isn’t worth it
Most MLB players have their best season at 27, his best years are behind him. There are exceptions for everything. If you want a cheerleader and a big mouth, should pay him for that.
Wrong.
2022 will be his age 27 season. He just turned 27 at the end of the season.
AND 27 is considered the START of the prime.
Most experts and scouts believe players perform at their peak ages 27 – through early 30s then gradually fade.
@Strosfn79 No. And how does anyone still believe that?
Peak on average is 26-27, peak years might, just might extend to age 28, then players quickly decline.
Just look at every roster in the majors. The number of regulars at 27 dwarfs the number of regulars at 32.
Correa has made less than $25 mil total in 6 full seasons and part of a 7th.
In that time, Jim Crane has collected extra revenue from 6 playoff appearances, 5 ALCS appearances, 3 World Series appearances, and 1 World Series championship.
Now, the Team is willing to give him $32 mil per year for 5 years but not even willing to make him an offer for more than 6.
He has earned an offer
MLB owners profit on the performance of young talented players then shun them when they finally have a chance to get paid what they are worth.
They say they don’t want to pay for years in their 30s after being parasites on their years in their 20s.
You are absolutely right, that has become the model over the last several years. But with the expiration of the CBA we will see what the players value and what they are willing to fight for. I am not looking forward to a lockout, but that certainly seems to be where this is headed. Maybe Correa should take the money and run.
He has an offer. He also made $25M as you said while the team was a parasite. That’s already enough money for anyone with a brain to live very comfortably for life. Correa didnt win all of those team accomplishments alone, the owner had to pay a whole team and for every Correa that does work out there are prospects who dont that owners have paid to sign and develop with no return.
@Strosfn79 Again, no. Jim Crane just paid Verlander $66m to sit on his butt for two years.
No way I give a 9 or 10 year deal at 32+ million a year to a guy that injury prone. He had a 3 year stretch of 109, 110, and 75 games played….at that young of an age! He’s got a history of back problems and a career OPS of .837. That’s not bad but definitely not exactly what I’d want for that kind of commitment. No thanks. Absolutely no thanks
No baseball player is worth $30 million per year simply because it takes too many guys to win. One player simply cannot impact a baseball team to that extent. Look at Trout. He’s the best player in the world, but he’s never come anywhere close to a championship.
Players are worth what the market will pay.
That means there are several players worth over $30 million per year
I would love Correa to stay but I do not see him a Dodger if Seaver goes elsewhere. Myself do not like these 10 year 3 to 4 hundred million contracts. It would hurt if goes. He has a leadership on that infield and if Correa goes wonder if would move Bergman to SS and move Yuli to third. Then find a first baseman. Saw something on that. What on this Leon guy could he step up or someone else saw mentioned. I know Houston needs pitching starter and bullpen especially with what happened this season. Need to replenish farm as well perhaps but who knows on things if nothing gets done until next year. I know Correa has a child coming soon I think or maybe next year not sure their. But will Correa really be worth 10 years. But more power to what Houston does either way and for Correa. Would hate to see him with Yankees or such. I do not see him going with a bad team.
I don’t think NY or LA teams will bid on him due to fan distaste. If they aren’t driving the bidding, he may not get as much as he’s hoping for
Fan distaste? Both teams’ fans would forget about it a week into spring training. I mean Dodger fans don’t care about Batts and NY was PED central.
Carlos Ellsbury.
It only covers his prime, a solid offer. Unfortunately some idiot team will give him 10 years…..
Wait a sec, I was told cheaters never prosper.
Let Him Walk. Spend more on the Pitching Staff.
I can bet the same amount of money offered that he’ll take this offer because he’s got nowhere else to go.
That’s a decent offer, more than I thought they’d give him, but he will become a FA, and according to sources the Yankees will sign him and Baez and Story and Semien…
hahahahaha!
this is something i’ve always been confused on: does this meet the requirements to count as a qualifying offer? it’s above the QO value, so it should, right?
No. The QO is a whole separate deal. It’s a one year offer based on the top something percent of players’ average salary. This year it’s around $19-20 mil. The player receiving the offer and turning it down results in the team losing him receiving draft pick compensation when he signs with another team.
The Astros will offer him this as well, only as a formality, so they get draft comp.
anyone see him whining in sports illustrated? He’s a little punk.
Don’t worry Arte Moreno will pay up when he whiffs an overpaying another pitcher. Correa will get $400 million for 9 from Ole Arte. It can right next to the ridiculous contract he gave Rendon when he whiffed on getting “ Mr Spin Rate Cole”
Astros will need to fill the garbage cans to the top, with money if they want to keep Correa
Houston better hope he rejects it. He is injury-prone.
It’s a win win for Houston. If he accepts it’s a lot less then he is expected to make so they have him for his prime. If he rejects it they just offer the QA and get the extra draft pick when he walks. After making his “my time” comment he didn’t do much in the World Series. Throw in you could move Bregman over to SS and just a sign a 3b or bring in one of the other SS you move on. Astros need pitching help
So getting a draft pick in exchange for losing Correa is a win for Houston? Hahaha
You keep telling yourself that.
See ya later. Sorry. I love Correa but durability is not his bag. If I were to sign him, it would be with the understanding that he will immediately get steady AB’s at DH, and share time at short with a glove guy, play a little at 3rd, etc. Day to day at short means IL stints.
13 yrs 360 mil
In that 10 year contract, how many *NEW TRASH CANS* are involved? Or does he have to accept a plastic one? A new trash can every 3 years? So many questions, and very few answers!
Idk, why don’t you hack into our emails again and find out?
Even if you’re enamored with the 7+ WAR this year, it was with a .850 OPS. Which is def great for a SS. But if you give this guy a 9 year contract at 30+ mil a year, you’re betting that this play continues for all those years. That’s a horrible bet to make. Especially when this dude has been injury prone his entire career. On top on his play being inconsistent, I don’t see how on earth he’s worth the risk.
It’ll be interesting. Let’s see how other teams view his toxicity. He’d better stay in Houston. For him I don’t believe his offensive or defensive numbers will be the deciding point. It’s clubhouse so I wish to think. The only clubhouse he seems to fit is Astros. We’ll maybe the Yankees.
When the Astros got caught cheating, Correa showed the world that he is a very low character guy. You don’t pump that kind of money into somebody with such low character.
Let’s go cubbies . 10 year 325 million . Get it done mr Hawkins
Greeeeeeeeedddddddddd.
Greed? Explain.
If you won a $250 million lottery would you only accept half of it? That’s the position he finds himself in. Numerous teams will back a truck load of guaranteed money and he will accept the largest offer.
Even if he preferred to stay in Houston his agent and the players union would want him to take the most money offered.
Current players have an obligation to honor the sacrifices of Curt flood and others who paid the price in the early days. If Correa accepts the highest offer it raises the boats for all other players. That’s how the system works. That’s being part of a union. It’s not greed. It’s looking out for each other and honoring past sacrifices.
If you win a $250 million lottery, you usually only get about half of it.
Welcome to Detroit.
He is a career .279 hitter. In Seven season, Only twice has he played over 110 games. He was the face of arrogance during the trash can revelation.
He is excellent defensively, has a solid .OPS and plays well in the playoffs.
There are more red flags here than when Lindor was signed.
If anyone is foolish enough to give him Lindor money they will likely regret it very quickly but I could see a large salary offered for 5-6 years.
Another team killer contract. It felt like teams were trending in the right direction on these for a while. Now we’re back to 9-10 years often. This is only good for agents and players. Ultimately it’s us fans footing that bill.
I hate when story’s have these headlines “Astros Offer Carlos Correa Five-Year, $160MM Contract”. Stated as fact. Then in the article “shortstop said”. A free agent has an incentive to downplay an offer from his team. It makes it appear that the player had no choice, but to enter FA. Give this story 6 months and the “shortstop said” is dropped, and it becomes a fact. Any comment made by a player or team regarding negotiations should be taken with a grain of salt.
There is an a local report in Houston that the Astros have upped the offer to 6/210
Has a 9-10 year deal every worked out for any team? I guess you could say maybe Rangers, since they flipped his deal for good prospects.
Long term contracts work out all the time – FROM A BUSINESS STANDPOINT.
The problem is that players typically tend to outperform the contract early and underperformed late.
So over the course of the contract, the player performed at the expected level and produced the expected numbers.
A player would generally not sign a short contract unless he was paid more per year, so this is the tradeoff.
Owners are businessmen and understand this.
Fans aren’t.
They don’t look at a player producing 20% better in years 1-4, at expectation in years 5-7, and 20% below in years 8-10 as a win.
They are happy in years 1-7 and then complain in years 8-10.
You almost always must go through years 8-10 in order to experience years 1-4 and 5-7.