Prior to the lockout, a flurry of hot stove activity led to free agents flying off the shelves at lightning speed, especially starting pitchers. However, one segment of the bazaar that wasn’t quite as frenzied was the corner outfield market. Mark Canha and Avisail Garcia signed with the Mets and Marlins, respectively, and utility man Chris Taylor returned to the Dodgers. But that leaves plenty of options still unsigned, including Michael Conforto, Seiya Suzuki, Eddie Rosario, Jorge Soler and many others.
However, the top two corner outfield bats, both of whom also remain unsigned, are Nick Castellanos and Kyle Schwarber. (Kris Bryant is also still available, though he figures to garner plenty of interest as a third baseman.) Despite some subtle differences in their profiles, Castellanos and Schwarber have offered fairly similar production in recent seasons. Castellanos generally offers more in terms of batting average, with Schwarber making up the difference by having a stronger walk rate. But both bring similar power to the table, along with subpar defensive abilities. (Both players figure to benefit from the implementation of the universal DH, widely expected to be part of the next CBA.)
Just how comparable are they? Let’s look at the last five seasons:
Castellanos: .286/.339/.518, 123 wRC+, 11.7 fWAR.
Schwarber: .236/.342/.495, 117 wRC+, 10.8 fWAR.
How about the last three years?
Castellanos: .287/.341/.539, 125 wRC+, 7.3 fWAR.
Schwarber: .245/.346/.516, 123 wRC+, 5.9 fWAR.
Just 2021:
Castellanos: .309/.362/.576, 140 wRC+, 4.2 fWAR.
Schwarber: .266/.374/.554, 145 wRC+, 3.1 fWAR.
However, despite that similar production, their markets have a couple of important differences. First of all, Castellanos is almost exactly one year older. He’ll turn 30 on March 4, with Schwarber turning 29 the very next day. Secondly, Castellanos received and rejected a qualifying offer, meaning the team that signs him will have to surrender a draft pick and potentially international bonus pool money. (For a refresher on what determines the penalty for signing a QO’d free agent, check out this post.) Schwarber, on the other hand, was ineligible to receive a qualifying offer due to the fact that he was traded midseason.
Perhaps the biggest difference, however, is financial. Castellanos was predicted by MLBTR to get a contract of $115MM over five years. But prior to the lockout, the most recent news about his market was that he was looking for a seven- or eight-year deal. Schwarber, on the other hand, was reportedly looking for an offer around $60MM over three years, not too far from the $70MM over four years that MLBTR predicted.
While Castellanos generally comes out ahead of Schwarber when looking at the statistics, it seems it may take a commitment twice as long in order to sign him, in addition to the penalty the signing team would be paying because of the QO. Taking all of that into consideration, if you were sitting in the general manager’s chair, who would you be calling after the lockout ends?
(poll link for app users)
Neither.
at the same cost? Nick. Given what Nick wants? Shwar.
This is the right answer.
I really hope the cards can land schwarber. He would balance that lineup out nicely, especially if the NL gets the DH.
Cards don’t need schwarber, I’d rather see Yepez and Gorman? Both are predicted to hit about 15 homeruns and 25 doubles in 2022? Spend that money on pitching
This is the “safe answer” they are great when you ate unsure, but sure at the same time.
Biggest difference wasn’t mentioned (or I missed it). One is a lefty, the other righty. Balancing out your lineup needs to be considered.
Same
Exactly. If that’s actually the cost for Nick then just go for Bryant.
I don’t even think it should be that close. Schwarbar is definitely the better hitter. No reason why he can’t secure a $60 million contract for 3 years when or if free agency ever starts up again. The Yankees would be better off signing Schwarbar than Rizzo.
Yankees need another corner OF/DH?
@elmedius- No, the Yankees need a lst baseman. Schwarbar can’t play lst base?
He has 75 career innings played at 1st base. Started to pick it up at the end of the 2021 season… all 75 innings came at that time.
You have that backwards. Castellanos is by far the better hitter; just look at their batting averages and the amount of doubles Nick hits every season; it’s not even close! The one advantage Schwarber has is his eye at the plate which gives him a slight advantage in OBP, but I’d rather have Nick at the plate especially with RISP. With that said, both are very good players and will make their respective teams better.
Unfortunately Castellanos is also a terrible defender which negates a lot of his offense. He would be a good DH though.
Schwarber the better hitter? Under what measurement?
OPS & OPS+. NC has the better average, but KS has averaged better than 50% more HRs/PAs.
No metric shows Schwarber to be the better hitter. Better eye, sure. That’s literally it.
Why do you say Schwarber is the better hitter? What statistic says Schwarber is definitely the better hitter?
Schwarber has been in winning/important ABs than Nick. Schwarber has batted lead off where Nick hasn’t. #s in BB can mislead, example Giancarlo Station #s in Miami. Great #s but no playoffs. Schwarber played in big cities, Nick cubs for 1/2 a season. I think Schwarber shows up bigger in important times more than Nick. I’m not sure Nick can handle being in big spots.
Is it fair to Castellanos given the team’s he’s played on? Also remember Schwarber did nothing the last few games against Houston. To me, unless I needed a big lefty stick, it’s not close (as evident by their asking prices). Schwarber led off out of necessity. His lack of speed makes him an unlikely future lead off man though.
Schwarber wasn’t a “good” lead off hitter. They are different players. All things equal, I’ll take Castellanos as the better hitter.
Schwarber hit so well he got nontendered just a year ago. And now people think he should be signed long term for 20MM per. Short memories out there.
@Yankee-4-Lifer Nick is the better hitter. The stats are right there in the article.
When you buy a longer term commitment, you are likely acknowledging that you will be overpaying in the back end and possibly clogging up a position(s) So, the real math ought to include that.
I’m guessing the hope would be to add an opt out or two and hope he rakes
If I am a competitive team, I would sign either of them to three years or less to be my DH.
I am not offering five years or more to a pure DH.
These two do not play good defense, Nick is an even worse fielder than Kyle. But they are both good enough hitters that I could consider a four year DH contract if the price was right.
If I am a non-competitive team, I prefer to staff my DH with position players on my roster to keep players fresh and tested.
I’d say they’re about equal fielders at this point in their careers. Castellanos was horrible in 2019 as a fielder but he has improved considerably over the last two seasons (or 1.4 seasons with the shortened 2020 campaign). Neither one are going to be signed for their glove. With the DH most likely coming to the NL, both will be inked as primarily bat-only players. They might get 40-50 games in the field per year to keep others fresh but that’s about it unless injuries force them to play more defensively. Schwarber was a disaster at first base in Boston during the playoffs. He dropped routine throws and made some big fielding mistakes too.
Castellanos is still a terrible defender in 2021 -1.3 dWAR
Dorothy, Schwarber also had little experience at 1B. My guess is he’ll be practicing big-time going forward as if he improves, it increases his overall value. No one is signing him to play first but it’s a bonus. What I saw out there was a guy having fun. At least he didn’t play the position scared.
Yankees sign Rizzo and Schwarber, then trade Gallo?
They’d have to trade Voit as well in that scenario, but it’s not a bad idea if NY is willing to exceed the CBT in 2022 (and beyond).
My guess is the CBT will be higher due to a new TV contract… so who knows where it will wind up?
No one is buying Gallo even for one year unless most of his cost is paid by NY (or the Yanks attach a prospect in the deal). His glove is fine but his HR, SO or walk approach is not really attractive on the trade market.
Nick is the better hitter. Schwarber worked on his fielding and has a gun for an arm. He might be a better option in LF than Nick. It comes down to years, AAV, and if you need a lefty in your lineup.
Schwarber has more raw power yes. If you need a big bat that can hit 35-40 HR’s he is your guy. If you need a LH bat he is your guy.
But if you want 25 HR’s and a much better on base guy then Nick is your guy. If you need a RH bat Nick is your guy.
It was mentioned above and I agree. It should be based on your team needs.
But overall I think Nick is the better hitter.
I disagree. Schwarber’s stats indicate to me that he is a better on base guy. He may not have as high as BA, but his OBP is higher.
Due to all of his walks, Schwarber is actually the better OBP player of the two (just slightly). But I like Nick better because of his extra base hits. Nick is always close to the league leaders in doubles and he can pop 25-30 HRs as well. I don’t know for sure but Im guessing that Nick leads Kyle in RBIs over the last 5+ seasons and probably by a wide margin. Walks rarely result in an RBI but doubles usually do.
OBP is a misleading stat which incorrectly values a walk as good as a hit. But a single can score a runner from second or third, or it can move a runner from first to third; a walk does none of these.
Wow. I bet if you ask competitive players, they wouldn’t say OBP is misleading. If no one on when a single is hit than no runner to go from 1st to 3ed or home. Also Schwarber batted leadoff some times so that OBP is important.
My guess is Castellanos’ cost comes down and he signs with Boston to play left field with AV moving to right. He learned watching JDM and will either learn again or maybe replace JDM who could get traded.
@metfan4ever
In all fairness, @realsox stated that OBP is a misleading stat “which incorrectly values a walk as good as a hit.” I tend to agree with @realsox for all the reasons stated. Additionally, putting the ball in play can secure a better outcome for the hitting team (e.g. the fielder does not field the ball cleanly or makes a bad throw and the runner moves up a base); unless you were last year’s Yankees who were terrible on the pads.
Comparing your example (no runner on the pads) versus my example (a hit followed by an error, which do happen) in you example a walk would get the batter only to first, Under my example a runner can advance to 2B, or even 3B.
From a fan’s perspective, I rather see the ball in play. Lastly, hits factor in OBP.
I wonder what competitive players would value more a knock or a BB?
The major difference, as I see it (besides lefty/righty needs), is the length of contract Castellanos is asking for. If he would come done a bit—say 4 years with a fifth year team option—I think Nick is the better choice. The guy can rake.
Schwarber. Lower risk because of a shorter contract. Also, the lefty bat would help a lot of teams.
Just because a player wants a 7 year deal doesn’t mean he will get it.
He will get a 4 year deal and like it
Nick at 5 years or Kyle at 3 I would be comfortable with if I were a GM. The only way I would offer more would be if the resulting years were team options.
I’d rather have a righty who can hit either side than a lefty who can’t hit lefties.
WRC+ is broken if Schwarber is +5 over Castellanos for this season
As a Tigers fan, I’ll take Castellanos, out of those two, but would rather have Bryant. I don’t wanna give him anywhere near 7 years though. I’d offer 4. I think players need to start doing what they do when they take short term contracts with a higher AAV. And that’s take a lower AAV when they want a million damn years! But, not only do they never do that, but some contracts are actually “backloaded” or “deferred”. So, it’s the Owners fault as much as the players for that not ever happening, but the players would throw a fit and say no if a situation like that was ever offered, probably.
Agreed. There have not been a lot of them, but when GMs FRONTLOAD a contract it’s probably the best way to do it.
It’s closest (presumably) to peak performance, and often, depending on the position, the decline is and can be dramatic. Plus, at a certain point as well, paying out less on the back end makes the contract easier to move. It’s a more tradable contract.
I believe Schwarber is a better fit for the tigers, they need a LH power bat who can play OF 1b or DH and Hinch would find ways to play him.
He would provide insurance for Miggy and Groosman and Hasse and Candy getting hurt or underperforming. He could also platoon with Tork when he arrives especially against tough RH pitchers.
We know what Casty can do in Comerica and I thank Schwarber hits for higher avg
With the large power alleys.
I like Schwarber but NC is the better investment if they are around the same AAV, even if that means another 2 years (Schwarber 3-4, Nick 5-6 yrs)
Maybe people understandably note the reported 7-8 years circulating but that was also the same time as the Marlins were pursuing Nick. It would make sense he would adjust his expectations depending on the club. If it’s a 4 year deal i’m assuming it would be with a club in a better position to compete right away.
Schwarber provides emergency Cather and is obviously a power LH stick.Plus he’s not the most expensive option left on the board.His versatility would be very valuable to a winning franchise.Dodgers lost a ton of salary and I would think they would be interested with a LF platoon,Insurance on Muncey and a DH if NL votes it in.Dodgers like versatility and emergency catcher is the cherry on top of his 35 Dingers
Money Detroit saved with Baez vs Correa is enough to get Castellanos.Simple Math. and teams need
My guess is Detroit has plenty to sign anyone not named Correa.Tigers are very close to being competitive again.
Nick is not a fit in Detroit. Miggy is still the DH. Plus they have too many solid defensive OFs.
The White Sox fan in me would rather have Kyle Schwarber because of his high OBP/OPS left-handed bat that makes for a better lineup fit in a batting order that still leans heavily right-handed. Schwarber would also provide more bang for the buck which seems a paramount concern to the White Sox front office and owner Jerry Reinsdorf. White Sox executive Jim Thome also happens to be a big fan of Schwarbs who sees many similarities between them as hitters.
The Cub fan in me would take either or even both considering the team need for corner outfielders who can hit. With the DH likely becoming universal following the ratification of the new CBA, their fits would be even better.
$115M over 5 years is a nutso prediction for Castellanos. He will be lucky to get $100M. I predict $18M/year for 4 years. He is a bad defender and beneifitted greatly from GABP. His away OPS last year was .772. Also his 3.2 bWAR last year was a career high. Do you really think teams will ignore these analytics? MLBT needs to do better homework…..
You are predicting 4/72 when He signed 4/64 without coming off the all-star season. It’s not MLBTR needing to do better homework, it’s you confusing your feelings for fact. Both are reasonable predictions and we will see if he signs for closer to 72 or 115.
KInda apples to oranges comparison here.
Schwarber is a left handed power bat who can flash defensive wiz in LF but is destined for a DH spot.
Castelanos has infield experience, plays RF and hits down the stretch.
Kyle Schwarber is willing to play wherever he’s asked to. Nicholas Castellanos plays only OF. He refused to learn 1B in Detroit.
He was referring to nicks Tim at 3rd
These two better pray the universal DH is part of the CBA agreement if they want to stand a chance at getting a good contract.
Given the option and all other things off the field the same I go for Nick. He feels like a more well rounded offensive bat.
Given the QO and expected contract, i’d probably look at other options first.
In the absence of any baseball news containing real meat and potatoes, MLB Trade Rumors has resorted to this who-would-you-choose survey!
What’s next? Odubel Herrera vs. Kevin Pillar?
I have no idea why anyone would want either guy at these prices. I’d prefer Schwarber, but that’s mostly on the fact that he is a year younger, and it looks like he is looking for three years. He should be an .800 OPS guy for years 29-31.
But the interest in Castellanos mystifies me. He’s only been a good player twice. The first was with the Cubs for two months, playing for a contract. And again last year, playing for a contract. In his first 9 seasons, he averaged 1.5 bWAR/650 PAs. Even in his ‘big’ 2021, he still only had a 3.2 bWAR. And as someone else mentioned, his road OPS was only .772.
I’d be surprised if NC wasn’t a fairly big disappointment.