Justin Verlander’s deal to return to the Astros became official this week. The contract guarantees him a $25MM salary in 2022 and reportedly contains a matching $25MM player option for the 2023 season. However, the Associated Press reports that Verlander’s option is conditional on him reaching 130 innings pitched next season.
Verlander should have a strong chance of reaching that tally. He’s no doubt locked into the Astros’ rotation, and he eclipsed 130 frames every year between 2006-19. The workhorse shattered that mark in every year other than 2015, surpassing 200 frames on twelve separate occasions. So long as he remains healthy, Verlander shouldn’t have any problem getting to 130 innings and at least giving himself the option of picking up some extra financial security.
That health caveat is an important one for any pitcher, though, and that’s particularly true in Verlander’s case. He’s thrown just six innings over the past two seasons on account of a 2020 elbow injury that necessitated Tommy John surgery. Verlander’s expected to be at full strength to start next year, and the Houston front office was clearly confident enough in his health to put a $25MM salary on the table. Yet requiring an innings threshold to vest the 2023 player option affords the team some cover in case the 38-year-old Verlander (39 in February) suffers another injury next season.
The terms of Verlander’s deal were reportedly agreed upon in mid-November, but the signing wasn’t finalized until this week. Some observers may have wondered whether concerns about Verlander’s surgically-repaired elbow could’ve been the cause for the delay, but that doesn’t appear to be the case. Buster Olney of ESPN wrote this week that the lag between the reported agreement and the finalization of the deal was due to some sort of administrative hold-up on the part of Major League Baseball.
Do pitchers that miss 2 years normally reach 130 innings in the third year? I’d be surprised if any have done it.
Verlander is no normal pitcher
Adam Wainwright threw over 190 innings his first season back from Tommy John, so there is certainly precedence here to easily top 130 innings. I’m quite sure Tommy John himself did something similar.
Very smart clause by the team. it suggests to me either JV preferred to stay or more likely had no other big offers.
Very smart contract by Verlander too.
Right DW. John Lackey threw 190 also year after his surgery and really effective innings at that. Not uncommon at all, seems to be case by case basis when guys are able to go larger amount of innings. Maybe teams allowing guys to go for it and also of course.. The player themselves putting forth the extra effort to get ready from such a terrible injury so quick.
John, given JV’s age, if he wants to throw, it’s his risk. Go for it
Bundy got 109.2 after more or less missing three seasons.
Taillon just did.
We still haven’t seen him pitch since the sticky substance crackdown.
Cole lost his Houston spin bump in NY for the first time and went from DeGrom AL to just a very good workhorse.
I wouldnt be shocked to see the already homer prone Verlander fall back towards a 4 ERA if his 4 seamer loses 300 on his spin rate.
The best part is DeGrom (when healthy) was still everyone’s daddy
4 ERA? You do realize he finished 2nd and 1st in CY voting his last 2 healthy seasons. Even if he was using stuff as many pitchers around the league were, you don’t go from that level of dominance to a back-end arm if healthy. He’s one of the smartest pitchers in the league, can throw every pitch for a strike in any count and the bullpen session showed he’s still got mid-90’s velo. 4 ERA if he stays healthy is a massive undervaluation.
Smart deal on both sides. If Verlander gets hurt again and misses significant time, the player option doesn’t vest and the Astros get out of the deal. However, if Verlander comes back with a vengeance (which I wouldn’t put it past him), he can choose not to exercise the player option and look for a Scherzer type of deal (less AAV but at least 2 years @ $30M+). Great ‘protection’ for both sides!
If there is a 162 game season he will get to 130 innings. However, right now that is a big IF…
Yeah, the negotiations plus Covid shutdowns are looking less and less favorable for a season. Although my hopes remain high, it may be another craps shoot for the number of games, which will inevitably result in a mediated ‘22 contract, which will result in more negotiations…you get the point.
If the season gets shortened, they will prorate that 130 inning threshold.
JV reminds me a lot of Mike Moore In 1989
Verlander reminds me of Moore about as much as Juan Soto reminds me of Max Kepler…
Who are these players?!? xD
How and why?
Smart clause, Justin case.
It leads me to believe Cashman wasn’t going to go for the matching offer. After the investment in prospect capital for Jameson Tallion and the low-ball risk with Kluber provided mixed results, he wasn’t going to go to two years for 14MM more for a pitcher five years older than Kluber and attach the second year.
On that note, with Tampa signing Kluber (w/ incentives could go from 8MM to 13 MM), he’ll be in Cy Young contention and go 4-1 vs. New York this year.
“at least giving himself the option of picking up some extra financial security.”
If Verlander and his wife aren’t already financially secure for their entire life, I doubt an extra $25 million will enhance anything. Just something to make the pile bigger.
The Astros continue to protect themselves in contract negotiations. With the combination of not signing long term contracts and the way they keep developing new talent, they will continue to contend for a long time.
Now the deal makes more sense.
I like this a lot better for Verlander. I doubt there will be much stopping him from reaching 130 IPs, two years after the surgery. I think what will happen is that it takes 2 months to knock off the rust, he gives the Astros a pretty decent season, but then opts out.
It’s a bit like the NYY with Taillon and Kluber, where they paid for a lot of on-field rehab.
If lockout goes into season I hope 130 gets prorated. I assume it would. However I wonder if lockout causes ST to push into season and therefore cuts games if they would prorate.
The only season that Verlander has pitched less than 6IP per game was his pre-rookie cup of coffee in 2005 when he pitched 11 1/3 innings in 2 starts.
That’s just over 5 1/2 IP per start.
Even if that’s all he averages in 2022 he will hit the 130 IP with 24 starts.
His last season, as a 36 year old he averaged over 6 1/2 IP per start.
His surgery was the end of September 2020. He will have had 16 months to heal, recover, and get back to his normal routine by spring training.
He can be put in a 6 man rotation where he gets 5+ days between starts all season long and still make 30 starts ( I actually figured 31 with no starts less than 5 days rest)
Even if he has an injury and misses 30 days he gets 24 starts, and by extension over 130 IP.
Less than 5 weeks injured = 130+ lock
5-7 weeks injured = possible but unlikely
+7 weeks injured= very unlikely if even possible.