The Red Sox continue to bolster their rotation, announcing agreement on a deal with James Paxton. It’s a one-year guarantee that also contains a club option that covers both the 2023-24 seasons. According to reports, Paxton will receive a $6MM salary in 2022. After next season, the club can choose to exercise a pair of options valued at $13MM apiece for the following two campaigns. If the team declines their end of the deal, Paxton would have the right to exercise a $4MM player option for 2023. Altogether, it’s a $10MM guarantee for the Boras Corporation client that could pay him $32MM if the team exercises the options.
Paxton is coming off a pair of lost seasons. Injuries limited him to five starts in 2020, his final campaign with the Yankees. The Mariners brought Paxton back on a buy-low $8.5MM guarantee. Unfortunately, the big southpaw blew out his elbow in the second inning of his first start of 2021. He underwent Tommy John surgery in April, the second such procedure of his career.
It’s not known when Paxton will be ready to return, but he’s almost certain to begin next season on the injured list. Tommy John procedures typically require a twelve to fourteen month recovery. That general area would seem to suggest a mid-summer return for Paxton, although it’s not clear precisely where he stands in recovery.
The Sox are surely hoping Paxton will be able to contribute at some point down the stretch next season, with the power lefty ideally serving as a boost to a potential playoff run. At his best, the Canadian hurler is certainly capable of being an impact member of a club’s rotation. Paxton pitched to a 3.54 ERA over 447 innings between 2017-19, striking out a massive 30.1% of batters faced while walking only 7.3% of opponents. That’s the kind of hurler to whom teams would feel comfortable giving playoff starts, and the Boston front office is rolling the dice on him regaining some of that form.
Were Paxton to pick up where he left off in 2019, he could be a long-term play for the Red Sox. Boston picks up some additional upside in the form of the option, a two-year consideration they’ll have to decide upon next winter. It’s a single provision that, if exercised, would guarantee Paxton’s salaries for both 2023 and 2024.
It’s a risk/reward play for chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom and his staff. Boston’s incumbent rotation already looked to be one of the higher-variance units around the league. Chris Sale and Nathan Eovaldi have both looked like top-of-the-rotation arms at their best — Sale’s one of the best pitchers of this generation, of course — but come with questions about their health. Nick Pivetta has huge stuff but a spotty track record at the big league level. Tanner Houck and Garrett Whitlock both impressed in 2021 but come with starter/relief questions. Paxton’s addition further raises that group’s ceiling, but he’s not the kind of reliable innings-eating type one could argue Boston still needs as a stabilizer.
Chad Dey of Sportsnet first reported Paxton was in agreement with the Red Sox. Jeff Passan of ESPN was first with the $10MM guarantee, as well as the presence of the 2023-24 club option. Alex Speier of the Boston Globe reported the option could bring the value of the deal as high as $35MM. Chris Cotillo of MassLive reported the presence of the player option and specific terms.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
The Big Maple in Fenway!!!!
Red Sox always stealing Former Yankees pitchers.
@Highest IQ- Yeah well the Yankees always stole Red Sox former hitters.
‘Stole’? When i think of Ellsbury, ‘bamboozled’ is the word that comes to my mind
More specifically, they always stole our centerfielders. but usually just before they retired.
Yeah, and how’d that work out for them?
Damon put up better numbers in NY than he did in Boston. Lumping him in with Ellsbury is not wise.
Joe – I’m old enough to remember a legend named Boggs get dumped by the Red Sox because he had an OPS of just .711 in 1992 after an .881 OPS the prior season. Back and vision problems apparently didn’t matter to Red Sox brass when they made their decision. They never heard of a thing called contact lenses apparently.
And the Yankees scooped him up for 5 years in which he put up an .803 OPS along with his first TWO Gold Gloves.
But hey, the Sox saved money by replacing Boggs with a guy named Scott Cooper.
Yankee Stadium is made for lefties, Fenway is not. And adding in fielding, the RS made out better. The funny was, for me, is that the NYY apparently didn’t realize that he couldn’t play CF. He couldn’t reach 2nd with a throw, and people ran on him with abandon.
LOL!
I’ve been trying to teach some of the RS reactionaries the same lesson this week.
1-Just because a guy has a single bad year (Boogs=JBJ/Paxton, maybe), doesn’t mean his career is over.
2-Pay attention to the peripherals stats. Some of the posters in here look at nothing but the stats on the back of the baseball card. Boggs career BABIP was .344. In his last year with the RS, it was ..261. Had he had his usual .344, his OPS would’ve been .877.
It’s never that simple, but reversion to the mean is usually more accurate than not.
IRT JBJ, the way I assess these things for all players, especially in fantasy BB, is that I take his last year’s stats, and adjust them based on his prior year BABIP, compared to his career BABIP, and the same thing with HR/FB.
Last year, JBJ’s OPS was .497. His BABIP was .226 against a career .290. Had his BABIP been .290, his OPS would’ve been around .625. His HR/FB was 7.6% against a career 13.3%. Some of that is ballpark specific, but there is no reason to not expect an increase in HRs.
If you want real predictors, look at a players K/W ratio, GB/FB ratio and the trend. I’d bet on an OPS > .650 without giving it much thought.
Ellsbury is just toward the end of a long — decades-long and nearly a century-long — list of Red Sox hitters going to the Yankees that starts with The Babe.
Just off the top of my head in no particular order:
Ellsbury
Johnny Damon
Wade Boggs
Roger Clemens
Luis Tiant
Sparky Lyle
Babe Ruth
Just The Babe was enough to instill an 80-some year curse on them (that included almost all of the other instances in which high-profile Red Sox eventually become high-profile Yankees)
Like Babe Ruth !!!
Looks like the Sox are battling for 4th place in the East. 10m for the option to exercise a 25m option for 23/24.
Currently Sox
10% chance of winning the division
15% 2nd and winning a wild card.
25% 3rd no wild card
40% 4th
10% Last .
That’s where you had them last year….. Ridiculous post.
Go look at the Vegas betting sites- They have the Jays/Rays/Yankees all well ahead of the Sox.
FYI- I wasn’t on here last off season. Care to try again with more accuracy this time?
What happens in Vegas stays in Vegas. The Red Sox play in Boston. And they win.
I guess that’s why the Vegas bookies are only in business for a few months right? They set such awful inaccurate odds year after year.
Welcome back to the 2020 Sox.
Wishful thinking by all Yankee Fans. Just like last year when they were predicted “by Vegas” to finish 4th. Good coaching matters — Yankees don’t have it.
That is awesome but I am not a Yankees Fan, time you Sox fans took off your rose colored glasses.
The Sox played above their talent level in the first half but July 19th onward they were a .500 team, A 10 day hot streak in the playoffs got them to the ALCS .
2020 was an outlier but then so was the first half of 2021. The true talent level of this team is in the middle. Currently a 3rd or 4th place team in the stacked ALE.
The only realistic objective Sox fan in here is GASoxFan he gets it. Bloom is building a house of cards. Everything has to go right to compete much more likely they crash and burn. As I said a 3-4th place team.
In case you didn’t know, Vegas is in the business not in accurately predicting sports outcomes, but rather identifying where the break even point for betting on both sides is. They’re trying to set up a house win in the event of either outcome, which is how they make out long term.
In other words, they’re in the business of gauging public perception, not accurate underlying team quality. Obviously, public perception is reasonably informed, but the public also misses plenty (as do we all).
The bigger challenge for Boston is not its own roster quality, but rather the depth of quality of division competition.
TalkSomeSense: ‘Red Sox won at the beginning of the Season’. ‘Red Sox won in the playoffs’. So they won when they were suppose to. Got it.
“House of cards”? Bloom took the 30th ranked farm system and turned it into a top 10 farm system. I’ll play that card game.
Do you really think Sport Betting is based solely on public perception ?
The degree to which fans will go to deny reality is mind blowing at times.
Outside of Canada not many baseball fans would have the Jays as 22 WS favorites yet some betting sites have them 4th at 900 odds.
Based on public perception huh?
DennyD
Did the Sox win the ALCS , did they win the WS? Keep kidding yourself , hopefully Bloom will think the same and make these Paxton type deals on a regular basis.
MLB has the Sox with the 12th best Farm what does that prove? Remember when SD had a powerhouse farm year after year what has that gotten them ?
As constructed the Sox have the most win variability of any of the 4 top teams in the East. You are delusional if you think otherwise.
When you throw seasons like bloom tries to, you’re going to add high draft picks. It’s what every long term rebuilder does. Takes no talent.
Bloom inherited a strong core of players in their prime and has failed to make good with it.
Prospects are worth nothing until they’re traded for impact talent or become a superstar. Otherwise they’re cannon fodder without value.
“Bloom inherited a strong core of players in their prime and has failed to make good with it.”
Really? The Sox got to the American League final series, better than 13 teams in the AL. Some failure.
Lines are meant to best estimate on what bettors will do. Books will happily let things even out and take the vig. Thus, it’s based on what they perceive gamblers will wager on, no more no less.
So betting odds have nothing to do with the projected outcome? Totally independent?
Yea ok .
TalkSomeSense
Go look at the Vegas betting sites-
================================
That’s accurate, but not meaningful.
I’ll be glad to walk this back, if you can show me where I am wrong, but LV almost never posts individual teams under/overs. I’ve always wanted to make future bets, but LV generally waits until spring training, for more accuracy. They will post WS odds, but they don’t care if they are accurate, because the odds make it a pure sucker bet.
1-Yes, they will slant the odds to balance the books. That’s automatic.
2-Again, while the concept you are pursuing is not unreasonable, it has little meaning. Using last year as an example, you cannot assume that a 4th place finish implies a bad team. TO finished 4th and missed the playoffs. The NYY snuck in because they won a walk-off game on the last day of the year. And then we promptly knocked them out.
Your way of phrasing things implies that, because we finished 2nd and were two games away from the WS, and the Jays finished 4th, that we were a much better team. Us finishing 2nd and the Jays finishing 4th was almost completely random.
So it is likely to be in 2022. The NYY, TBJ and BRS are virtually tied. One of those three will very likely miss the playoffs, but that doesn’t mean they aren’t good teams, much like the Jays weren’t a bad team last year.
“as I said”
Dude…who are you? Whatever.
Prospects are worth nothing until they’re traded for impact talent or become a superstar. Otherwise they’re cannon fodder without value.
===================================
That’s kind of a meaningless statement. 100% of all players were once prospects. Therefore, over the long-run, the value of all prospects is equal to the value of all MLB players.
A $100 bill is only a piece of cloth until you spend it. A house has no value unless you live in it or rent it out. My 1,000 shares of Berkshire Hathaway is nothing but paper until I sell them.
Love the way you parse out and exclude long periods to suit your argument. Season is 162 – streaks and lulls happen to all teams and ignoring them ignores the nature of the game. By this theory the Braves should be stripped of the WS title because they got hot at the end. As I said ALCS team. No rose color here.
Even hot and colds streaks are more a matter of luck and strength of schedule. In the first half, our luck factor was +4. In the second half, our luck factor was ~ -1.
Then when you look at the SOS, after the ASG, we played 23 of our first 26 games against TB, NYY and TO.
When people think a team is playing better or worse, most of the time, it relates to luck and opposition. Take a look at SD’s final 22 games. LAD-6, SFG-10, StL-3, and Atl-3. People talk about the SD collapse. But while they did play poorly, they also played the best teams in the NL.
What did the “experts” in Vegas have the Bosox at last year. Please. Troll somewhere else.
Yeah the first half carried us through the wild card, the ALDS, and almost to the WS. I like this “house of cards” being built. As far as my glasses, they aren’t rose colored. They are far sighted, which enables me to see a hater from just about anywhere. Clown
I hope we fail like that a lot. Make the ALCS 5 out of 10 and you’ll be in the WS at least once. God people kill me. I still haven’t heard from Sense who his team is. I’ve heard how awful the red Sox and bloom are but not who he roots for. Could it be. Because we’d all have a great laugh? I’ve never understood trolling. I wouldn’t waste my time watch the Yankees rumors just so I could talk spit to the fans on there. Ridiculous .
Sports betting odds are all about money flows, as a gambler and sports bettor I look for the deals. The 4 teams in the ALE are so close together that I would put my money on Boston and be happy because they are going to have the best paying odds. People are forgetting that it was covid that really caused the big losing streak that allowed Tampa and New York to catch and pass them. Rich Hill is a good insurance policy for if the Paxton gamble fails and Rich Hill can hold Paxton’s spot in the rotation until he’s ready to come back. Clearly Houck and Whitlock are staying in the bullpen. If Barnes comes back to first half Barnes that’s a nasty back end. Sale, Evoaldi, Pivetta, Hill, and Wacha until Paxton is ready. Then they might go with a 6 man rotation to give extra rest to Sale and the old guys Hill and Wacha. This is a improved pitching staff and Sale will be better with an healthy off-season to train. I like this move a lot, it’s a good one that most fans miss, so give me the over on 89 games next year please
Vegas betting sites are just that — betting sites. People aren’t betting purely on where the teams will rank. They’re betting on the odds vs payout.
In other words, if the real odds would place the Red Sox at say… 10% to win the division, but the payout for them to win was 100:1, that’s a ridiculously good bet. You make 10 bets like that, you will get a payout of $1000 ~96% of the time. For the $100 put in, you make an average of $~960.
Since sports gamblers tend to be more Mathy than the average schmuck, more of them are going to take that bet. As a result, the betting odds are often not even remotely similar to the real-life odds (or rather the statistical projection models, but that’s muddier to explain).
What makes you think the Sox are done adding? And given that other teams are not done either, it’s way too early to assess where these teams stand relative to one another, especially since all of them are probably within 6-8 games of each other.
I like this move – high upside.
SJKinMD
What makes you think the Sox are done adding?
==============================
That’s why LV doesn’t post team under/overs this early.
The LAD and the NYY have done almost nothing yet. They are maybe a 91-win team. In two hours, they could have Kiermaier, Kershaw, and Correa.
Honestly Boston now doesn’t need either of those players unless Correa would be willing to move to second base…..that’d be sick
Pax is a wild card bet… likely little impact in 2022 as takes a good 24 months to recover for starter.. likely he becomes 3 inning reliever in 2022..
RS need solid, consistent starters who go a good 7 innings with a 3.0 ERA… that is there pitching hole… its hell on relievers for starters to go 5 innings…
And a reliable closer or 2..
With inglacious and SCHAUBER…the position players are fine…just switch devers to 1st and dalbec to 3rd and BOGARTS to 2nd… IMPROVES the porus infield… RS defense coaching sucks at minor league and majors…
Well then they have no chance since Vegas says so. Wonder what they said last year? The Yankees were the favorite, Toronto was the 2ns favorite, Ray’s were 3rd favorite and Red Sox 4th. And the Red Sox betting line was well behind Toronto at +400 and Ray’s at +450. Sox were +2000. So Vegas’ favorite last held first for 1 whole day on April 6th. Their 2nd favorite held first for 3 whole days, last on April 6th also. Both of those are fewer than the Orioles had with 7. Sox had 85 and Ray’s 98. So much for Vegas and their crystal ball.
So the Sox defied the odds one year now the Red Sox nation think it will be an annual thing….. yea ok .
Statistics mean nothing when a single day can go a long way to change course of stats… play the season out. No one expected the Braves to have any shot at winning and look what happened.
Wish the M’s could’ve had him back. Surgery in April 2021 so he could be back mid season if all goes well. $10m seems steep but he’s got #2-3 upside for sure
I think the Mariners did well in grabbing Adam Frazier. He was solid during his tenure here in PGH, just didn’t work out in San Diego
I don’t understand this and the Wacha deals. Trying to get lightning in a bottle when how many if these type deals (experienced pitchers either hoping to rebound or coming back from a major injury) have recently worked out for the money given? Surprised they couldn’t have traded some rule 5 available players for someone without a name but I who might provide more value.
Agreed. Success rate for a second tommy John is low. At his age it would be a challenge to return from and provide even serviceable numbers. I just don’t get it.
I’ve said it before about previous years Dewey…
If Bloom would just combine a couple of these bad deals, wacha+paxton gives you the cash to bring in a REAL starting pitcher. It would’ve paid almost half the Gray deal, and if you combine the option in almost all of it.
Sort of like richards+perez+andriese. But instead we get refsnyder whispering sweet nothings in blooms ear and moves like these.
I was going to reserve judgment until ST, but, it’s seeming the direction is becoming pretty clear.
Ask Eovaldi the legitimacy of that statement brotha
I agree it’s a steep price for someone who might be ready for the summer.
Last year he signed for 8.5 mill then blew his elbow and so now he gets 10 mill? Too much!!!
He gave wacha a raise after a non-performing campaign… why wouldn’t paxton get the same sweetheart deal?
To save wear-and-tear on his arm, he should sign his name “JP” on the contract.
Ignorant Dodger fan:)
But still definitely worth a +1.
The press is going to have him for lunch.
The press will have him for breakfast. They’re gonna pour Big Maple all over their pancakes
@Fletcher; Have you considered a career in the adult film industry?
FINALLY.. A decent signing…
Yeah steep indeed. If he comes back mid season and is paid prorated salary, it would only be 5 mil. Reasonable amount for mid season rotation reinforcement. By that time he shouldn’t have any innings limit either.
MLB contracts are fully guaranteed. He’s getting $10 million even if he never throws a pitch.
Oh dang. Thx for info.
You’re welcome.
And I’d assume these types of deals wouldn’t be insured either so the team would be on hook for all of it
I can’t imagine it’s insured if you already know he’s injured.
I mean maybe… but isn’t that like insuring a house after it already burnt down?
We’ll for the 1st year I think it’s obvious but I wonder about years 2-3 if the options are picked up
With his injury history likely only able to insure a percentage of the 25m at a reasonable rate.
That’s Chaim blooms Hanukkah gift to y’all. Lol
Aren’t there eight days? If so, he’s got more giving to do.
What about ownership giving him the ok to spend? He’s doing what he can with the bucks he has. I’d rather be try to renegotiate Bogaerts or extend Devers. Hoping such is going on behind the scenes but an article I read yesterday indicated that wasn’t the case m
If you combined the paxton and wacha money you could’ve had one pretty good starter instead of… well, a steaming pile of garbage.
that’s a pretty meh gift. I seriously wish they’d pay for a top arm instead of spending the equivalent amount on a collection of maybes.
We’re eating pancakes tonight!!!!
not to kick anyone when they are down but you do need to ask why this particular pitcher knowing hes hurt? i wont lie i know nothing about him, i dont watch Seattle’s games, maybe im missing something?
I’m a Boston and M’s fan and have seen him throw a lot. When he’s healthy? Front end upside for sure. Have seen games several years back where he was 97+ late in games. he can be almost impossible to make contact with at times.
For Boras to agree to this type of what seems to be team friendly deal, I’m thinking he must be further away than midseason tho from pitching and why Boston got the 2 seemingly reasonable club options for what Paxton brings to Boston.
It is puzzling for me too. He is coming off TJS in april 2021. Injuries have always been in his history. But the potential has always been there. he has ace like stuff and potential.
Bring a Yankees fan he’s another eovaldi like pitcher. Might be a good bet if he’s healthy
There’s a difference though bronx… eovaldi was healthy and throwing again when DD traded for him. It was instant production.
Then, after seeing he could and did produce, especially in the WS, DD handed Nate the extension.
Bloom just gave away a pile of money for a guy who isn’t even ready to throw, who isn’t known when he will be ready, just on the off chance he will see enough from the guy to make an educated decision on another 2yr expensive guarantee.
That the 2 options are connected makes it particularly stupid as an option. What if paxton comes back, and throws 4 innings total in September. Does bloom double down with no track record? Or does he admit this was a dumb move and release the guy, getting raked over how dumb the 2021 idea was?
GASox
You get it, there is a much greater chance this is a total waste of $$ then being a “brilliant” move.
The way things are looking the Sox will have the most variability in outcomes of any of the Top 4 in the east .
The problem is the complete lack of stability on the team, top to bottom.
Last year pitching was shaky. The bullpen remained overtaxed and over extended.
Next year’s roster has Sale (not stretched out), eovaldi, pivetta(inconsistent), wacha (hasn’t been able to perform and let go by TB who are one of the best at SP development), Whitlock (not stretched out and only BP bright spot), Houck (ramping up). Now we get paxton who hasn’t played meaningfully in years.
But against that backdrop bloom ran David price out of town on a rail despite being below the CBT if he stayed in boston. And is still paying LA for the privilege of having done so???
Bloom traded or didn’t extend/re-sign 3 OFers. Last year, all 3 were GG. The defense has suffered. The rotation has suffered. The bullpen is in tatters if you remove Whitlock Daniel bard-style. The offense is clinging to relevancy by the remaining pre-bloom players who are doing the heavy lifting. The likelihood of Devers sticking around is almost gone due to failure to engage and give an extension. Jd will be out, Bogey likely opt out. What’s going to be left?
This offseasons doesn’t appear to be about spending “stupid money”, it’s looking like spending “money stupid.”
“a pile of mile”. You new to baseball. 10M is next to nothing.
“a pile of mile”. You new to baseball. 10M is next to nothing.
Maybe you missed it. Red Sox went to ALCS, when they were suppose to suck. Not sure what people are drinking to come up with these stupid opinions.
dennyd = you are right and EVERYONE else is wrong!! hahaha
If you put Richards in front of a mirror he looks like Paxton. Ineffective, over=priced and a loser.
Bloom being Bloom. $28M to spend and two crap pitchers take up $17M of the $28M. Can JD, Bogey and Devers carry the hitting again? Time will tell. At this point the rotation should be Sale, Eovaldi, Houck, Pivetta and Punt.
For all you Bloom lovers, the upside is Bloom will probably stay around an extra season due to the lock out. He won’t be three years behind DD in winning Division Titles until year four!!!
So the guy who was going to create a sustainable winning tradition through youthful acquisitions and an improved farm system has yet to add anyone of value to the minors except his early draft picks from the bad seasons AND he just picked up a 33 year YOUNG starter that costs nearly all the money left thanks to his stupid move with Price. Brilliant!!!
I feel like I’m watching Animal House and Bloom is a pledge and Belushi looks at him and shouts FLOUNDER!!! Perfect nickname for the guy, I hope it catches on!!!!
I don’t remember you being so worst case focused in the past. Sale came back and pitched and gets a regular offseason. He should be very much 90-100% this year. Eovaldi could regress some but is still a solid option in today’s game. Pivetta will give inconsistent innings. Houck will hopefully be off the leash and should be a solid starter. I think these depth signings mean Whitlock stays in the pen. They do need to sign a few bullpen pieces, like most teams these days the pen is overused.
Offense was still a top offense last year. Dalbec grew last year, Casas should join the lineup, let’s see what Duran did in the offseason to build on his time.
They could easily make a splashier move and trade Dalbec/Downs to a team like Oakland or Cincy.
What if paxton comes back, and throws 4 innings total in September.
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He’ll be throwing by April, and game shape by late-June. If he is not throwing until the last week of September, then we’ll have our answer.
So now only the Yanks and Phils have done nothing.
What do you suppose they are waiting for?
CBA stuff
The yanks having chosen NOT to make some bloom moves for wacha and this paxton idiocy are clearly ahead of BOS for having done nothing.
Sign your name anyway you want but your clearly not a Sox fan and hiding behind your name to troll is even more pathetic. In 2023 when Paxton is throwing 97 and 180 innings let me know what you think about this move. It was 100% about the future
Another ex-yankee that will probably give the Yankees grief like Eovaldi. I’m sure Kluber will destroy them in Tampa like Ji-Man Choi.
Another miserable Bloom signing. Can’t wait until he makes 10 starts at a 5.64 ERA then is out for the season
10 million for a guy whose arm is shot basically
Do you really expect 10 starts?
the red sox, yankees, astros and dodgers lack of moves are embarrassing, even if you dont like these teams, the fact that they have done absolutely nothing just all together is just a mess in itself, they have added NOBODY, not counting verlander resigning. Baltimore and Pittsburgh have done more…
Those are also teams that don’t really need to do a lot, particularly Houston and LA. Their rosters are stacked as is and they have young players coming up.
I expect one to get Correa. I also expect each to make a notable move or two before all is said and done.
“Not counting Verlander.” Right, that doesn’t count. Please, shine more of your genius upon us, even though we clearly don’t deserve it.
Some pink hat wisdom for sure
Something something women something something baseball
Amanda, are you one of those people that think moves are only smart if they are done quickly? I was really hoping that Cashman would jump in with both feet, and make ill-advised and expensive signings of Marte & Seager.
Waiting can hurt, but right now, if Cashman is going all-in on a shortstop, his patience has made him top-dog in the race. In the $300M/10 category for Correa, the NYY are the only game in town.
A month from now, Rizzo might still be looking for work, and looking at a $28M/2 contract from the NYY.
I’m not a Cashman fan, but his patience has put him in good shape.
How was the Seagar signing ill advised?
I thought 8 years at $30M was absolutely the ceiling. They went almost 50% over that amount. That’s imo, of course, but Seager also has maybe two years left at SS. And, while he is not fragile, he also hasn’t played more than 145 since 2016.
Healthy,he’s outstanding.I always enjoyed watching him battle.WTF happened to all those Seattle pitchers?My god that franchise had some guys who could bring it.
The same Red Sox fans who mocked the Yankees when they traded for Paxton will now pretend that never happened and praise this as a genius move
You’re this far down in the comments section and you have not seen us say, “what’s going on here with this signing?”
You’re writing that without even reading what Sox fans have written before you and questioning Bloom here? Nice.
Some sox fans are criticizing the move, and rightfully so. Then there’s the bloom apologist crew who are lining up for a chance to kneel down and get their dose of big maple.
GAsucksFan, you show your idiocy w every post. Love it
There were only about 15 other comments at the time I made mine last night. Most of the replies to the comments above me came after. As GA pointed out, there’s already Bloom apologists praising this move, while the realists are puzzled by him signing two projects for a combined $17M instead of using that money on a more reliable pitcher
You forget to include that bloom brought in the legendary refsnyder as the OF upgrade that returns Kiki to 2b/utility role he was signed for.
The plus side – he appears ready to concede that Duran needs more time in the minors. The downside is an OF with refsnyder in it, instead of GG winner benintendi who was traded for the now-dfa headliner of franchy cordero and a pile of lottery ticket spare parts.
Refsnyder will be our #4, if he has a good ST, or minor league depth.
The talent has always been there when he’s healthy, so this could end up being a good signing. But I’m mildly surprised that he even got a guaranteed deal, let alone one for that much.
Pretty impressive for Boras to pull this off.
That said, if Boston is in any race come July/August he could be a huge boost down the stretch and o yo October. Kind of like a trade pickup without prospect cost.
Except the rotation is already held together with duct tape. You need to last until late summer in contention and be in position for a long shot bet to pay off first. BOS isn’t there ..
TJ in April, so at best he maybe plays half a season. So $10M for half a season (again, assuming all progresses as planned). So prorated, this dude is worth $20M a season? I know he’s The Big Maple, but c’mon.
Yeah all these teams like taking all these risks on guys who are often injured or coming off huge injuries. Signing them to incentive laden deals based on innings makes more sense to me. Or at the very least have a team opt out if he doesn’t pitch at all or less than a certain amount of innings. Paying all these guys to rehab for months instead of pitching.
Theoretically the Sox likely won’t see Paxton til the All Star break at the earliest. This could be a very interesting signing depending on how this plays out
Yeah, for us, man, he was just good enough on certain outings to get our hopes up before letting them crash down again…then would go out with his annual injury.
I wish you all better luck with him EXCEPT when playing the Yanks, of course – I hope he sucks then.
I don’t see any Cy Young’s or MVP’s in Paxton’s future thats for sure but i am curious how this will play out. I’ve been of the mind that it may be time for Paxton to consider going to the bullpen as it may grant him a second life in the league since he can’t stay healthy as a starter. But I am of the old school thinking that starters should make at least 32 starts per year whereas it seems 25 is now the acceptable norm
I couldn’t agree more. With the injury history I think the ‘pen might be the best place for him. From what I’ve seen the Sox are not afraid to do that either, and it’s worked before.
How did Paxton manage to get a raise?!
His highlight video of ’21; the 2 outs he got. That sealed the deal.
If he gets three outs in 2022, every fan in Boston gets free pancakes.
I think refsnyder got blooms ear and encouraged it.
MISSED IT BY THAT [ = ] MUCH !!
According to informed sources, The Marlins were in on James Paxton right up until he signed the deal to join the Red Sox.. The Marlins made a “strong” offer, but not one that matched the Red Sox’ financial commitment. The Marlins weren’t the only team to be outbid.
The Minnesota Twins had also been linked to Paxton.
Is this what they mean by “st*p*d money?”
Couldn’t find a more healthy option for ’22?
Wait, that’s the toilet I hear,flushing their money.
sorry im not THAT impressed by a 38 yr old pitcher coming off MAJOR arm surgery, but hey! you play for a team that needs to cheat in order to win with a mound thats magically higher up and does different things for hometown pitchers, more power to ya!! my point really was that teams that were GREAT last year have done nothing, sry to not believe now the tigers and rangers are gonna be much better, i will atleast give Detroit credit they actually SIGNED A STARTING PITCHER!
38 lol
She’s talking about verlander obviously.
38??? You mean 33.
It’s only December 1 and the good teams don’t have as much to do. Lots of time between now and spring training.
TJ surgery can have a 16- 17 month recovery proccess, july is if they are lucky, that will be 15 months from this past April, this isnt a ‘ bad’ signing, its more, unnecessary
I keep seeing this reported as a $10M “guarantee” and that’s making me wonder about a big buyout here on the option.
just think about this,
since Bloom became what he is to the sox, GM whatever the term is, he hasnt signed any player from the free agent market long term, they have all been low end shorter deals, yes some of the players have been PHENOMENAL, kike Hernandez, but their wont be any 7 yr deal, thats why they wont get correa, didnt get biaz and wont get a long term pitcher,. the days of epstein and dave dombrowski shelling out 9 yr 345 million deals are gone, which can also not work, cause honestly sometimes you need that kinda deal, it also didnt help boston having an everyday shortstop when 4 were available, thats why the yankees USED to be good, they signed anybody for any amount of money.
Not gonna lie, i was hoping for Stroman, that was the guy we shouldve signed. But, i do like this deal a lot more with the option years. If he turns it on by years end, we can get him cheap for two more seasons.
What most people here do not realize is the Sox have some solid young pitching ready to come up in the next year in Connor Seabold, Josh Winckowski and Jay Groome. We also have Mata as a nice bullpen arm when hes healthy from surgery.
Personally, i cant wait to see these guys play in Fenway, so probably good not to block them. My guess is Bloom will go after the big bat this year, not the big arm.
That isn’t James’ second Tommy John surgery. Where did Anthony Franco get that info? This is his first TJ surgery.
Boston, you’re getting a steal. He’s moving along in his rehab and when he’s ready around July, he’s going to be a nasty 1-2 punch with Sale.
No i was responding to the Verlander comment, hes 38 and coming off major surgery, and i LOVE justin verlander, i just dont seem him being the game changer he used to be, i just dont like the astros, obviously im well aware who our manager is, cora, now HES a gamechanger, ive wanted verlander to play for boston since.. 2005? so ya lol.
we hope so! the ‘ maybe in july’ scenario is the downfall, boston could be well out of it by that point, you do all realize we DONT have a 2nd or first baseman, right?
oh ya! we also dont have a closer
Yeah, you have the ex-Yankees RP Whitlock.
whitlock isnt our closer, matt barnes is who last year was horrible for about 2 months, i do however seeing whitlock taking that job full time, i know bostons not giving out long term deals but i personally hope they get Jansen from the dodgers.
Amanda, it sounds like they are going to stretch out Whitlock in Spring Training as a potential starting pitcher next season. He’s two years + removed from TJS do his arm should be fine to do so; let’s just hope that they don’t turn him into the next Daniel Bard!
All I can think of is that Boston received some sort of medical update from Boras that Paxton is ahead of schedule on his TJS rehab. There is some value in the two year option for $25M which would lock up his age 34 & 35 seasons for a total of $25M, but paying him $10M for 2022 seems awful risky given what we just saw with Chris Sale and how long it took him to come back from the same procedure. I was expecting more of a 2/$18M deal, $3 for 2022 & $15M for 2023, but it’s not my money (well actually it is some of my money as I go to 5-10 Sox games per year). Let’s hope he can recapture his Big Maple moniker and not Big Mistake or even worse, Canadian Martin Perez!
Boras is cleaning up again. Ya gotta give him credit. He works hard for all of his clients, not just the stars. The 5% he gets is well-earned.
Every guy responds to TJ differently.
That said, sale was a much better pitcher than paxton pre-TJ, was about 1.75 years younger, and not a second procedure.
Despite all that, sale took an extended recovery and the team tried to have him as fully ramped up as possible prior to return. This netted mixed results at best.
If paxton is handled in a similar manner as sale, he might return the last month or so of the regular season. If he returns too early, it’s likely an experiment that gives paxton a shot at building value at the expense of the red sox being competitive in games, and wearing out the bullpen.
Tons of question marks, but it smells of a move normally taken by either a non contending club or somewhere with a set and stable rotation /bullpen of known quantities taking a flyer on a guy.
The sox shouldn’t be the first type, and certainly aren’t the second type.
I wonder if there was a falling out with Seattle. I thought for sure he would re-up with us since we drafted him and had such a good history there. Congratulations Red Sox, Paxton is a class act and when healthy is lights out.
The Mariners seem pretty deep with pitching this year with the development of their minor leaguers. They don’t need the risk. We never heard any rumors that they were “in” on the guy. His departure saves them another $10M.
I also had him going back to Seattle. Definitely surprised by this movie on the Sox part. I wanted them to go after more of a sure-thing SP than Paxton or Wacha. DeSclafani would have been a great fit in my opinion. Pretty disappointed so far in the Sox offseason overall.
I don’t think a falling out in Seattle happened I think the Red Sox are in a position to take a gamble Seattle isn’t positioned for. We’re in the middle of one deal already where we paid for a lost season. People have forgotten Ken Giles is a Mariner so I doubt they were willing to go at it again without knowing how the first pans out. Add that to the fact he got a raise for half a season and Seattle isn’t touching that
Bloom is very smart. The Zaidi/Friedman of the East.
You can be book smart and street dumb, winding up mugged and left for dead in a gutter.
Bloom hasn’t shown he has what it takes to navigate the rough streets of free agency without paid security keeping him safe.
I like the deal. It should be inspiring for Pax to see Sale dealing as well as he has been, a few months ahead of him in his TJ recovery. Could also be a nice trade piece next offseason if he demonstrates a return to health and Boston chooses to sell high.
Welcome to the Tampa Bay Red Sox
Like when Dan Duqette went after all those Expos players in the 90s or when Epstein was picking up Sox players after leaving Boston. Maybe they like to rekindle old memories?
10 million to sit on the bench for half a season. Brilliant.
But that’s not the deal, is it?
Dombrowski gets Chris Sale. Bloom County gets Refsnyder and Paxton. How’s that working for you guys?
Just a cheaper E-Rod, who is more back end starter now. I really thought the Red Sox would have made a run at ONE of the free agent starters on the top end. Their payroll currently sits at $162 million. I do not know what Bloom is thinking. They need to address the starting rotation and add a few live arms to the pen, as top priority.
Their payroll is higher than $162M right now. Keep in mind they still owe David Price $16M (which counts against their payroll figures). When it comes to CBT, they add in another $15M for player benefits (non-payroll) plus they add in the salaries of all minor leaguers who are on the 40 man roster too. From a CBT perspective, Boston is closer to $200M right now. If Bloom is still being asked to stay below the CBT then he doesn’t have much more money to work with, hence no extensions for Xander or Devers.
Great pickup
I wouldn’t touch this guy with $10 never mind $10 million. Is his agent’s name Jesus Christ?
More dumpster diving
Will he ever be healthy enough to pitch again?
$10 million donation.
$10 for one year is pretty high if he doesn’t end up pitching until mid-season, so I would imagine it means he’s doing well recovering, and will be ready closer to coming back sometime in May.
Paxton has good numbers when healthy, and will be a nice addition if he proves to be healthy and return to his form pre-injury. I think he got forgotten with so many great pitchers on the market this year. He’s a lottery ticket, but could be one with good winnings in the end.
When she joined the Yankees I got my Canadian WBC hat signed by him. He was so freaking nice, as expected from a Canadian. I remember saying to him, “Hey I’m Canadian as well, and we’re very happy to have you here in the Big Apple,” he replied “Ha no way, Thank you, I appreciate that” of course it didn’t work out but I’ve always liked Paxton. Good luck with Boston but I will boo you now as that’s the way sports go
The Sox 22 season will have a very high degree of variability will the performance/injury risks. Everything break right and it could be 21 all over again with great stretches followed by mediocrity . Things break against them and it would be 20 and a high draft pick for 23 .
There is a much greater chance of a middle of the pack 3rd or 4th place finish then either of the outlier outcomes.
I mean seriously Wacha and Paxton?
With the price of contracts this off-season it has steal potential. Obviously there’s risk. He’s never pitched more than 161 innings in his entire career but at this price level he could pushed to the bullpen and be used as a setup man too. I like this better than Perez or Richards.
Eovaldi looks like a top of the rotation pitcher? When was that? On Halloween?
LOL
I could have saved them $9 mill… just sign me. They will get just as much production out of me as they will Paxton.
… just another Junk to the Fenway !!
Essentially a poor man’s E-Rod; let’s remember, E-Rod had his injury issues too.
Not a bad signing; likely won’t be significant.
Still, the lineup is among the best, and even if the defense is hideous, so is everybody else’s in the East (maybe Tampa, but they’re “meh” at best).
Sale, Nate, Big Maple, lots of utility type arms…..they’re still in the hunt. You’ve got 4 teams in the ALE, all are good, all have warts. Right now, my money’s on Toronto, but not by much.
Sale, Nate and Big Maple have what, four TJ surgeries amongst them at this point in their careers? Expecting durability from that bunch is a stretch.
“Insanity: Doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result.” ( Albert Einstein). Giving a ten million dollar contract to Paxton is exactly that.
Oh, yeah? Ever owned a cigarette lighter?
Are owners spending like they know salary cap is going up by 30 or so million? This year”s spending on Wacha and Paxton smells like Richards and Perez.
The only reason why I think this could be good is that he’s a former Yankee. That’s worked out for the Sox a few times.
He is more of a former Mariner then a former Yankee ( two trips to Seattle plus a no hitter).
For all the people acting like the Red Sox rotation is garbage, who do you think should not get a spot? Sale and Eovaldi are locked in and could be one of the best 1-2 combos in the league. Pivetta pitched like an ace at times down the stretch. Houck has electric stuff and should at least be able to give you a solid 150 innings over the course of the season. Whitlock had one of the best rookie debuts as a relief pitcher in recent memory and clearly has enough stuff to be a starter. The biggest question is do they have enough innings out of those 5 to compete all year knowing that injuries are bound to happen. With Wacha and Paxton the Sox are getting two wild cards that could provide valuable innings at different stretches. If anyone starts to stumble or gets injured, you have some level of reinforcement in Paxton around mid-season. I think adding depth like this could prove to be really smart. I could still see them adding at least one more starting pitcher, but I would guess it would be another wild card, maybe someone like Rodon. Get as much depth as you can to add to the core and hope that a few of the guys pan out. I’d rather have them try their hand at 3-4 different pitchers that COULD be great over spending all of it on someone like Gray, or even Gausman or Ray, that really don’t
So tell me, in a world with Barnes who lost it, if you remove Whitlock, where’s the bullpen?
That cobbleddeal breaker isn’t full of guys you can expect 5IP all season out of, let alone 7.
A much better path to success is having Whitlock become a lockdown lights out closer, and get an durable 6IP every time out SP arm. Then find one or two setup guys. Then, when the SP falters, a BP game or two is not a dealbreaker.
Accidentally posted before finishing my sentence, but meant to say, “they really don’t have a consistent long-term track record.”
In regards to your reply, there will always be more value in a SP than a closer. Better to see if Whitlock has the talent to be a front line starter before committing him to the bullpen. There are still quite a few reliable relief pitchers available through FA or trade. You’re right that having Whitlock in the rotation would mean they need to sign more relievers, but I still think that’s a more desirable route.
Boras recommending to all his clients to sign, tells us that this negotiation is going to be awhile
Eovaldi version 2.0. Prediction: Paxton will be a stud in 2023. And the rest of you know better? I don’t think so.
This team was one missed strike call from likely going up 3-1 against the Astros. Not too shabby.
They manhandled the yankees, the beat up the Rays and they were crushing the Astros early in that series. This is a good team, deal with it.
Bunch of babies.
You miss the obvious. With Whitlock out of the pen, who replaces what he did?
Also, erod wasn’t pitching at a 5.xx era level. The shoddy error prone defense took a guy pitching at a 3.xx level and inflated things to 5.xx era results. He also threw a good number of innings.
Wacha, with that same defense behind him, would see his true 5.xx era effort balloon similarly, instead to a 7.xx era performance.
The defense hasn’t improved. The bullpen is worse under the plan shown so far. The rotation is inferior by measure of health, and IP thresholds available.
It’s much easier to find relief pitching than it is to find young controllable starting pitching. They’d be foolish not to give Whitlock at least a chance to start. They have already stated he’s going to get stretched out with the possibility of starting. I can see him and Houck basically providing the innings for one starting spot over the course of the season. They’ll also both likely pitch in relief at times as well. But it would be a waste to only get 60-70 innings out of him in a closer role. Not to mention, he wants to start.
Again Whitlock would have to be stretched out. Now you weaken the bullpen to plug him in to the rotation. Houck as well. There are no guarantees with these two snd them you have to pick up relievers.
2017 was the last Year Paxton could be considered a “stud pitcher” has never pitched more then 160 innings . 6 Years in between his ” stud” years , a bold prediction, many would call it dreaming in technicolor.
Prediction Paxton’s 23/24 option will not be picked up ( unless Bloom hates to admit failure and tosses good money after bad ) . Paxton even when healthy profiles as a #3, 4 and that is if he can stay healthy for a full season which he does not have much of a track record of doing.
Bunch of babies? What are you 12 – Seriously lol . The entertainment value is priceless.
A Smart Gm would have given Paxton no more 5m guarantee with another 5m based on IP on an escalating scale with the 23-24 options broken up .
Fan since 1963. I’ve seen it when they knew what they were doing and when they didn’t. I learned to tell the difference. Right now, they know what they’re doing. The end. No crying.
He was one of the pitchers I was sure Mr. Avila was going to try and nab as the Tiger’s yearly reclamation project. That is a little more money than I think he’d commit to that need. Hope it works out for the Red Sox.
It’s funny how they didn’t even mention Michael Wacha for any rotation spot.. For $7M he better be doing something significant… lol smh
Bloom had $28M to spend and put $7M into Wacha and then doubled down on a guy who hasn’t performed well since 2019. The good news is that his history of being good is much longer than Richards was. The bad news, it’s been 3 years since he performed to an acceptable level to be a Boston starter.
Is $10M with only $21M available a smart choice considering his recent history? This may be the biggest risk to reward ratio of any player Bloom has selected. If he can pitch back to his late 20s he could start the year as the #3 until Houck and Pivetta pass him. If he is healthy, he is a step up from Wacha and a much better starter than E-Rod. If he’s not healthy, it was a waste of money..
Most importantly, there were so many better options at a lower cost. Kim put up numbers in 2021 like Paxton did several years ago and will cost about $4M. Baltimore has an arbitration eligible SP in Means who is also better than both Paxton and Wacha and costs around $4M.
FYI…. If the Orioles get good years out of Rutschmann, Mountcastle, Mancini, Hays, Mullins and Santander Boston may find themselves looking up at Baltimore!! How scary is that!!
Sale, Eovaldi, Houck and Pivetta will need to be better than last year and guys like Bogey, Devers and JD can’t afford to have an off year if Boston wants to stay competitive. Renfroe will need to match his career year. Dalbec needs to continue proving he’s a better hitter than Devers to start his career since Devers’ second full season was his breakout year in 2019.
Bloom had a great opportunity to upgrade the talent and choked. It’s now up to the players like last year to over perform to give the fans any type of hope for the post season.
As a fan I’m tired of reading the news about Bloom’s moves and shaking my head!! Failure, failure and failure. I guess at some point he’ll hit on a talented player rather than a wishing well player. Maybe not. Time will tell.
I agree Wacha is a major league minimum guy or even a minor league contract with an invite to Spring Training at best. Is he kidding me with Paxton? No help until mid season maybe? What are we paupers or is this Bloom doing the cheap “Rube Goldberg” fixes on things like the military use to call it. Come on already with the dumpster diving and the cheap pickups of teams throwaways. I do not like Bloom and I did not think he did near enough at the trade deadline to help the team. If he had actually picked up a good reliever or two we might have gone further and beaten Houston. Part of this is on him and John Henry I guess. Wake me up when Bloom does something!
The off-season isn’t over yet
An odd gamble by the Red Sox, way too much money for such a gamble.
Crazy… $10MM after 2 years of nothing.
Paxton had TJS only seven months back in late April. Not sure he’ll provide anything before August. Perhaps Bloom’s viewing it as a “trade deadline” acquisition, but this feels more like a 23/24 deal that allows the Red Sox to view him in action for a few starts before taking the plunge.
Bloom never met a dumpster that he didn’t like.
Pax is a wild card bet… likely little impact in 2022 as takes a good 24 months to recover for starter.. likely he becomes 3 inning reliever in 2022..
RS need solid, consistent starters who go a good 7 innings with a 3.0 ERA… that is there pitching hole… its hell on relievers for starters to go 5 innings…
And a reliable closer or 2..
With inglacious and SCHAUBER…the position players are fine…just switch devers to 1st and dalbec to 3rd and BOGARTS to 2nd… IMPROVES the porus infield… RS defense coaching sucks at minor league and majors…
Honest question. Come August when this guy actually pitches, is this the rotation with the most Tommy John surgeries in baseball history?
What’s kind of funny is, for all the complaining some of the fans are doing about Paxton, Eovaldi and Sale are two of the best pitchers in the league.
Just a couple of observations.
1-I find it interesting that some people wanted Verlander, under similar circumstances, for far more money than Paxton. Verlander is better, but the medical chances are fairly similar.
2-I wonder how people would’ve reacted had we given out a similar contract (1+2) for McHugh? It would’ve been a straight-up steal on our part.
That said, my expectation is that he returns after the ASG, pitches league-average until mid-August, then pitches like a #2. Past that, this is a pure futures-market bet. If he recovers from his injury, he’s a steal at this price. If he doesn’t, we lost $10M.
I have no problem with gambling $10M on a guy that could return maybe $25M of excess value. I just wish the there were two separate options instead of one.
There is also just as much chance the following scenario plays out.
Paxton makes it back Mid August and gives the Sox 8 starts at a decent ( call it #3SP ) level but they miss the playoffs.
The 2 yr option is exercised based on those starts and in the 2023 ST he gets injured and the Sox spent 35m for 8 starts from a #3 .
There are a ton of ways this play out, 10m straight up with that option as an all or nothing does not make a ton of sense. As I said 5m with 5 in bonus based on IP, 23 option could even had a vesting option included if he pitches say 70 innings in 22 . The way this contract is written does not smack of a smart GM on a contending team.
The Sox have a very high degree of risk in their SPs . A ton of variance in the outcomes.
There are a wide range of outcomes. The topside is that he looks like the pitcher he was in the three years before getting injured. He averaged 3.1 bWAR. If he provides 3.1 for two seasons, and maybe 1.0 for 2022, we have an upside of 7.2.
The downside is he doesn’t pitch.
If 1 WAR for a FA is worth $8M (conservative), and we give each outcome a 50/50 chance, then our expected value is $0 and (7.2 * $8M) – $25M salary), or $32.6M in excess value. And a 50% chance of that outcome makes us $16.3M richer on relative value.
I wouldn’t consider the chance of him having a full recovery and getting re-injured, since that is a chance with any FA. If he pitches in Aug-Sept with no problem, I’d guess he will make as many starts in 23-24 as someone like Gausman.
Just for fun, since contract length counts, I’d be comfortable betting that Paxton’s WAR/$$$ of salary exceeds Gausman over the length of their respective contracts.
Let me make sure I understand this correctly- you are saying Paxton who is coming back from Tommy John AND has never pitched more then 160 Innings in his career will pitch more then Gausman in 23 who just pitched 192 innings in 21.
Did they have a sale on Rose colored glasses recently in Boston ?
Joe Brady
Paxton has been worth 3War in 2 I repeat 2 season in his career and the last was 2018 so in 2023 a full 5 yrs later you expect him to return to career best form? Yea ok- good luck with that.
Your number are way off . Best case would be as you described. 7 War over the 3 years. 7×8= 56-35 =21m in surplus value .
Worse case he picks up the 1 War in late 2022 then gets injured in ST and has a repeat of the 2020/2021 in 2023/24 seasons – 4 War. So he has been worth 0.6 War to the Sox.
.6x8m = 4.8 m . 4.8-35 = -31.2m . A negative surplus value of 31.2m .
What is the mean between 21m and -31.2m ? It is not 32.6m in excess value lmao. Seriously guy bone up on risk mgmt. and P values.
The fact he has so much injury history would likely mean little of the 25m will be insured and none of 10m . This is a very high risk play for Bloom with an upside that does not justify that risk.
What I said was ‘starts’, not ‘innings’. But otherwise, yes. In his last three healthy seasons, 2017-2019, Paxton had 81 starts. Over the same period, Gausman had 82 starts. You could be right, but imo, you are over-estimating Gausman’s l/t health.
But the key point being that, if Paxton is fully healthy for Aug-Sept, I think he has a pretty good chance to be healthy for 2023-24. Any l/t contract has health risks, but the first year of a long-term contract is usually good, since they ended the previous season healthy
As I said, “He averaged 3.1 bWAR.”. I just copied that. And I just re-checked BR, and their calculations have not changed. He averaged 3.1 WAR. That part is spot-on correct.
I did make a mistake taking $25M instead of $35M. So that makes the upside $22.6M.
But your downside assessment including him being fully healthy in his last start of 2022, and then having a career-ending injury in his next start, is really low. And the same could be said for most pitchers.
The article says, “Chris Sale and Nathan Eovaldi have both looked like top-of-the-rotation arms at their best — Sale’s one of the best pitchers of this generation, of course — but come with questions about their health.”
Chris Sale and Nathan Eovaldi have both looked like top-of-the-rotation arms at their best — Sale’s one of the best pitchers of this generation, of course — but come with questions about their health.
Sale will turn 33 on March 30 and has never wone more than 17 games in a season (17,12,6, DNP,5 with BOS) and Eovaldi will turn 32 in February. He’s already had two Tommy John sugeries and has only won more than 10 games in a season twice (14,11). With the Red Sox he has won 3,2,4,11 in 3.5 seasons (games in 2019 season split about half between starter and reliever because of injury).
So, what is a reasonable expectation for both of them? Career highs of 17 and 11 wins? Boston career averages (which are definitely a bit lower)?
Looking at wins as the only metric is a dated argument. There’s so much more into measuring performance. ERA and WHIP are the stats I like to review the most. Also, the range/consistency of a defense plays an affect on a pitchers stats as well.
For example, a ball in the gap that JBJ tracks down might not have been caught if Renfroe is there and goes for a two-out based clearing double. Hence why I think defense is woefully underrated. A position player can have an impact on pitching performance but a pitcher cannot have an impact on a position players performance
Michael Wacha and James Paxton… we’d have a great rotation if this was 2015.
This is just a horrible deal. Sign him when he may be available mid summer. He isn’t going to help right away and who knows if he’s going to help at all. Need help all year not just half of it
That’s the same as Verlander & Kershaw and Syndergaard. Al of us can be GMS if we wait for players to prove themselves. But if we wait until he is throwing 97 with a 3.75 ERA, his cost will more than double.
Looks like Kd17 has a new account
soxfan1 – Which account would that be? To the best of my knowledge I have one account. I hope nobody did the identity theft thing and are copying my words and giving credit elsewhere. I bet it’s Cora. He’s the only dirt bag that would do that. Let me go out back and check to see if my garbage cans are still there!!! hahaha
I’ve read about 100 comments that could have been mine. Which one prompted your comment? Do I seem like the type of person that would feel the need to be anonymous and use a second account?
It is interesting that your mind would go there. Hmmmm…. sounds like a person speaking from experience!!!
They’re paying him during his rehab. the possible upside is in 23 and 24 he may be back at near full strength. the options allow a cost effective # 2 or 3 starter. I’ll grant that it’s a lottery ticket, but if it pans out, what a great addition. Bloom is handcuffed by the brass not giving him a budget to go for it. Just look back to his initial press conference wher he stated that the wild swings of pennants and also ran finishes were something that they wanted to avoid moving forward. Hence the adding of young players and prospects at the minor league level. The sox may have made the playoffs last season, but that in no way will deter them from their long term goals of consistency going forward. Has Bloom swung and missed? Yeah, no doubt. Has he improved this team? Yeah no doubt. I’m giving him the benefit of a doubt… for now
Be reminded that last spring, before his injury, he was absolutely lights out. Ridiculously dominating. Boston remembers. That’s who they’re eventually hoping to get.
The contract terms are a lot more reasonable than what I thought seeing this at first. That is as long as he doesn’t miss the whole season.
So…2 years 19M for Paxton? Not bad.
That’s even better. Even with a bad season, if he triggers the $4M option in 2023, he might still have some BP contributions.