When roster transactions once again fall within the purview of professional baseball teams, the Mets will be on the lookout for another starting pitcher to add to their already-formidable rotation, per Andy Martino of SNY.TV.
Martino specifies that the Mets will absolutely be willing to go the trade route to make that pickup. That certainly tracks with what’s available on the open market. Most of the top free agent hurlers have already signed, and while there are certainly still some viable names on the market – Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke, Carlos Rodon, to name a few – but the most intriguing long-term options can be found in the trade network.
For starters, the Reds and A’s are two of the teams that seem most willing to deal their current rotation arms. We know Oakland to be in play, and they have lots of offer with Sean Manaea, Frankie Montas, and Chris Bassitt each capable of contributing first-division innings for a contender. If he’s available, Luis Castillo might be the most intriguing name of all, though it remains unclear exactly how available the Reds have made their presumptive ace. Sonny Gray should also be appealing after a 2.4 fWAR season with the Reds in 2021. Gray, like Castillo, remains under team control for two more seasons. Chris Paddack of the Padres could be an interesting arm to inquire after as well. It’s worth noting, of course, that none of these arms figure to come cheap.
The Mets have already added legend Max Scherzer to the rotation, but practically speaking, the upgrade over Marcus Stroman might not prove to be the skeleton key that Mets’ fans hope. It ought to open some doors, for sure, and that’s not to say the upgrade will “come out in the wash,” exactly, but it might not be enough to turn the Mets into instant contenders. Scherzer put up 5.4 fWAR over 179 1/3 innings last year, compared to 3.4 fWAR over 179 innings from Stroman, but there’s at least some age and injury risk for Scherzer, who finished 2021 with a tired arm.
Beyond losing Stroman, the Mets also lost Rich Hill, who contributing a competent 63 1/3 innings with a 3.84 ERA, and Noah Syndergaard, who, despite his name recognition, did not factor into the Mets’ 2021 season in a significant way. Otherwise, they’re starting staff remains intact. Is that a great sign? Mets started ranked 13th in fWAR, 8th in ERA, and 10th in FIP. That’s a good staff, but it also wasn’t enough to get the Mets to the playoffs.
Presuming good health, the Mets have a very strong cohort of veteran starters between Scherzer, 37, Jacob deGrom, 33, Carlos Carrasco, 35 in March, and Taijuan Walker, 30. Scherzer aside, however, that group has hardly been the most reliable foursome from a health perspective, and they don’t exactly have youth on their side. Carrasco hasn’t made more than 12 starts in a season since 2018, Walker was healthy in 2021 for the first time since 2017, and deGrom made just 15 starts last season. Scherzer has been a workhorse, but Father Time remains undefeated.
Beyond those fours, Tylor Megill took hold of a rotation spot last season with 18 starts and a 4.52 ERA/4.69 FIP across 89 2/3 innings. Those numbers are likely to give the 25-year-old the inside track on a rotation job, but they won’t be enough to guarantee one. Trevor Williams, Sean Reid-Foley, David Peterson, and Jordan Yamamoto make up their depth group at present. Williams has the most rotation experience of the four, but he pitched better out of the bullpen after coming to New York from Chicago, and the Mets could see themselves fit to continue him in that role. On the whole, this group has spent significant time in big league rotations in the aggregate, but not so much so that it would be surprising to see the Mets seek out another arm.
The Mets made one of the biggest splashes of the offseason in signing Scherzer, but their work is far from done. If Mad Max and deGrom make 25-30 starts a piece, the Metropolitans will feel pretty good about their ability to stay in the race. That’s a better Plan A than most teams can muster. But it’s been a long time since Plan A has come to fruition for the New York Mets.
Of course. I’ve already predicted another ridiculous Mets contract for Kershaw.
26 years/$3.2 billion
With Bobby Bonilla incentives?
Did you guys know that MLB The Show simulations have Taijuan Walker finishing top 3 in Cy Young voting with a low ERA and a record of 18-4? That’s also with deGrom winning the Cy Young. I figure someone from the Mets organization must be making those algorithms. 2 of the best 3 pitchers in the league are Mets and one of them is Taijuan Walker? Taijuan Walker goes 18-4? I like to notice the funny things in simulations. They also had Ohtani getting much better at hitting but much worse at pitching. Did anyone else see that? I saw it in Giraffe Neck Marc a couple days ago.
A dumb video game. Figures. And you actually take it seriously.
In the season I just finished Ohtani pitched to a 5.44 ERA, but hit about .310/.348/905.
Stu, is being a jerk that important? What part of his comment made it seem like he was taking it seriously? Go yell at some kids to get off your lawn.
Well in its defense the mlb the show simulation called correctly the Braves winning the World Series over the Astros and that call was made before the postseason had started.
It’s actually the best sports video game year in and year out now a days. Love me some Diamond Dynasty lol
@stu baron, you gotta stop liking your own comments.
Taijuan Walker went 0-8 +
with a 7+ ERA in the second half. Carrasco had a 6.+ ERA on the year. On a true contender they would have been benched in August.
He posted about it to make a note on how weird/absurd he was. If you don’t understand that then clearly you’re the ignorant one.
Ohtani sucks at pitching in MLB cause he plays as DH the other 4 games and when it’s his turn to pitch he has no stamina
That’s absurd. I can’t see them going higher than 25/3
They definitely need one more arm, even a mediocre one that can eat some innings. As the article points out, even with Scherzer, there are a lot of question marks in the rotation. I wouldn’t want to rely on Walker, Carrasco, and Megill/Peterson/etc as my 3, 4, and 5.
I don’t think starting pitching has been the main issue behind the Mets recent lack of competitiveness… if they’re going to spend money or prospect capital they should really be more focused on other areas.
They already signed several guys like Marte, Escobar, and Cahna. What ‘other areas’ should they beef up? Starting pitching should be their top priority right now.
rct, the bullpen isnt as strong as it could be and Chafin or Tepera can help solidify that problem or trade for Rogers in Minnesota… Mets are far from done yet i predict
That’s true, the bullpen needs another couple of arms. I expect Familia to be back, but they’ll need more than that. Loup is gone and he was amazing last year.
i dont feel safe with Diaz as closer and Rogers would be nice to trade for….i dont want Familia back either unless for blowout games either way…
With Hefner’s connection to Rogers, it’s very possible. But it depends upon what the asking price is – McNeil and Vientos for Rogers and an outfielder?
Why though are we trusting Martino on anything? He has been so flip floppy and his sources are terrible.
Cohen better hope r/WallStreetBets doesn’t boof him again
lol, they can try they’d sued for all their worth though. The market strategy they used is illegal.
I think that could happen at least 10 more times and he’d still be the riches owner
It’s going to be funny when inevitably you figure out having a rich owner doesn’t equal success. But then you’re so delusional you probably won’t figure it out.
Your statement is right but it doesn’t apply to what’s about to happen to the Mets. New dodgers
well, angels need another rotation help, too. short term contract. maybe, kershaw, anyone?
I kind of like Megills demeanor on the mound. Never seemed to let anything bother him. Could learn a lot from degrom and scherzer. What a blessing that must be for a young pitcher.
Nothing? That’s too bad. Bombing out to the tune of an absymal seasonal ERA should have bothered him.
If they’re lucky, these Mets will give 1/3 of their starts to deGrom and Scherzer (it’ll be closer to 1/4), another 1/3 to Carrasco, Walker, and Megill, then at least 1/3 to their current, sorry depth. Imagine thinking you’re going to contend giving at least 54 starts to Peterson, Yamamoto, et al, and with a middle teir of those 3. Here we go again.
I agree on both counts. You need to maintain control of your emotions, but there is also a need for getting mad.
Past that, imo, they are a $265M .500 team. I’d say Walker, Megill, Carrasco & Peterson roughly qualify as #4 pitchers. Scherzer & DeGrom are certainly aces, but one is almost 34 and coming off of 15 starts, and one is 37.
Walker & Carrasco have #3 upside. Arguably higher for Carrasco but injuries and age dim that outlook.
given that playoff teams lose 42 games a year no matter what they do at bare minimum (most lose between 62 and 72) If say they win 45/54 of Degrom, Scherzer starts, that means they’d need to go 50-58 to win 95 and guarantee a playoff spot not that unreasonable.
DeGrom’s career win percentage is 59.2 and Scherzer’s is 66.2 Please explain to me how they are going to win at a 83.3% clip?
Of the modern era, Ford has the highest winning % at .698. Using that %, then DeGrom & Scherzer only win 38 instead of 45, and the Mets win 89 instead of 95.
Abysmal era? No. That’s serviceable. Please learn baseball better
LOL
ehhhhh… can you name any other two starters you’d rather give 33% of your starts to?
I was just asking a question of the guy that stated the rotation would be fine if those two went a combined 45-9 (an 83.3 win percentage). History shows that’s highly unlikely.
Yeah, the kid has got some intestinal fortitude, and being around DeGrom, Scherzer, and Carrasco can only help.
I assume his late-season struggles came from a combination of fatigue + the league adjusting to him, and also that Hefner can help him figure out the necessary counteradjustments.
Megill is a diamond in the rough. Learning from Scherzer and deGrom will be huge. He is going to be very good when the season starts in late August.
I think Megill and Peterson are both 5th day options. They seem to be the perfect same day, bullpen saving, tag team, 1 – 2 punch.
Why not have them both ready to go day 5, wait as long as allowed to announce the starter, let him go twice through the lineup or until he starts to falter, then follow with the other?
Seems both pitchers would benefit from knowing they only have to go twice through the order and then as far as comfortable, followed by one reliever if necessary. Plus, both could easily be stretched out if needed when injuries mount, while still protecting innings build up.
deGrom
Scherzer
Walker
Carrasco
Megill/Peterson
…add a veteran arm like Danny Duffy with his scheduled June return, then flip Davis and Smith for a couple of AA/AAA starters who might not have to be added to the active roster just yet. This frees up 2 roster spots to add 2 more relievers, one lh and one Rh with closer experience not named Familia.
Just my $0.02 for discussion.
You mean the fact he never threw above 100ip before 2021 and coming off a year he threw 0 might have caused fatigue?
If they get a solid #3 innings eater type, this is a scary team.
It’s been said every year. They are non-contenders until they prove otherwise.
Yes. I agree. And I am not dethroning the Braves or anything. I think the Mets are good, but not contenders without rotation depth. With depth, I think they’re absolutely contending for that division.
Just get rid of pre Cohen Mets history….
@MetsFan22
That leaves the Mets with a losing record and zero postseason appearances.
It’s true. Just needed everyone to get hurt
@MetsFan22
The Mets have not proven that they’re contenders. You can’t just buy a trophy at the grocery store.
Mets will go around 77-80 wins this year [if full year]
weak offense.
I think their offense is much improved with their new additions.
I really hope I’m wrong but am I the only one pessimistic enough to think degrom will have another season ending injury this year? The rotation is already a huge question mark and losing him again would set them back so much
If deGrom isn’t throwing 100+ every pitch and gets away from overusing his slider, he should be fine. I’d love to see him learn to pitch to contact for more outs early in the game. Way too much emphasis on strike outs.
Scherzer put up 5.4 fWAR over 179 1/3 innings last year, compared to 3.4 fWAR over 179 innings from Stroman,
========================================
That’s my issue with the NYM acquisitions. They added a lot of money. But basically upgraded from Stroman to Scherzer, from Conforto to Marte, Villat to Escobar, and Smith to Canha. That’s better, but these guys also cost $86M.
Money means nothing to them, but you are spot on. They are not mich better than last season. Just spent more money.
How is upgrading from Stroman to Scherzer not good?
It’s only good for 2 wins, assuming Max keeps pitching like he’s young again. The stats back it up. They seem to be about 7 games better overall. Not sure that helps a lot.
This is where analytics are intrusive. Having Scherzer on your team, his leadership & experience, is far more valuable than the insufferable Marcus Stroman. Not everything can be run-through a calculator.
When you equate one win above replacement with one win in the standings, you are misusing the stat of WAR. It doesn’t work like that.
That’s nonsense. Ask any player who he’s playing hardest for, Max or Stro
… stats may say one thing reality says another.
Yanks215 hours ago
How is upgrading from Stroman to Scherzer not good?
===========================================
What I wrote was:
“That’s better, but these guys also cost $86M.”
“That’s better” = “good”.
Kept in mind as well that Stroman was supposed to be the #3 on the Mets, not the ace of the staff. Personally, I was hoping that Stroman would resign with the Mets.
I do think the Mets swing a surprising deal for a starter though. But maybe not until after Bryant signs somewhere. If they add Bryant, I think Vientos, Mauricio, Baty, Smith, Davis and even Nimmo could all be a part of some package for another SP snd 1 or 2 RP.
Highly unlikely that Baty or Nimmo would be included in a deal. They have very little outfield help in their system, and Baty is a very promising bat who’s not far from contributing at a position of need. I’d be surprised, otoh, if all of Smith, Davis and McNeil are still on the Mets in ‘22.
I’d rather keep McNeil and Nimmo and sign a pitcher. Both McNeil and Nimmo are probably more valuable than Bryant anyway so why add him and trade them? Bryant is becoming the most overrated player in the game.
Bryant is a proven, multi position top of the order post season producer while neither McNeil or Nimmo have shown they can help this team win much of anything, especially from the bench.
I agree that Baty should NOT be traded. Nimmo, who I love to watch btw, CAN be replaced, especially with his looming contract situation and constant IL inclusions.
They’re also banking on McNeil, Dom Smith, Lindor, and McCann having bounce back years. All of them underperformed their career stats, especially McNeil and Smith.
Plus Cano is back, but who knows what he’s going to bring to the table.
There are a lot of teams where even if everything breaks right, they’re still not contenders. The Mets have at least put themselves in a position to contend, and since it’s Cohen’s money and not mine, I’m happy with the offseason so far.
86 is misleading
Stroman and conforto were free agents so it’s more like 40 mil for the improvements
Hope Mets sign Clayton Kershaw
no thanks, we have enough injury questions in the rotation!! sign or trade for a true#3 starter…..
It’s obvious they need a long term, innings eating #3 without a history of injury
Should be easy to find.
Not exactly a surprise. The Mets have a high win variance, somewhere between being an 82 and a 92 win team at the moment, and my guess is they are closer to the former than the latter. Yes, they added Scherzer, but they also lost Stroman. The incremental wins may not be as much as many expect, and if Scherzer takes a step down due to age, which I don’t expect on a significant level, then it could be a wash. The Mets need a full season from Jacob, but will he provide more than the 5 WAR season he did in 2021? The elbow is a concern. They need to add a reliable starter, and they need to strengthen the pen. Looks like Cohen may have to field the first near $300 million payroll team in an attempt to buy a winning record and be competitive.
The trade route might work, but the Mets are trying to rebuild their farm. I don’t see them giving much away. Acquiring a Castillo will be very costly, and I’m not even sure they have the pieces to make it happen. Acquiring some of the Oakland starters will also be costly. Keep in mind the A’s are not going to be very interested in the excess hitters the Mets have. The A’s want low-cost impact players that they can control for a number of years as they retool.
honestly it’s funny people think teams that over-performed like Atlanta will not go back to the mean and that the Mets who literally had murphy’s law hit went from 1st place by 8 games over PHILLY and Atlanta in August would finish that low is pretty damn funny. I mean how many position players had a career worst year? 1 reliever departs who had a career best (relievers are highly volatile) and a starter who threw 2 ip is replaced with a top 2 starter and they only gain 10-20 wins is hilarious to me. Buck alone would have stopped that collapse Rojas couldn’t manage his way period. He lost control plain as day.
Atlanta has won the division four years in a row. They would have won 95 games without all the injuries. Also, the Mets usually get off to good starts and then collapse. This was nothing but the norm.
Atlanta actually underperformed their pre-season projections. The Mets did too, but that’s basically what they do most years. The Braves were able to pivot and make some key trades to cover for the loss of Acuna. They’re a well-run organization with a very good talent base and an understanding of the market and their needs. The Mets, well, we know what happened there. They will need to prove they are in the same class as the current Braves.
No one in the NL East overperformed last year. In theory everyone should be much better which is scary in the Braves case.
Greinke will never agree to play in NY.
Were you one of those who said Max Scherzer wouldn’t as well?
Greinke deals with anxiety. He’s been on record early is his life that he never would want to pitch in NY. Nothing against NY, just the pressure that’s associated with playing there.
He’s turning into a Frank Tanana type of picture now
Pitcher
Nothing wrong with that. An average or slightly above-average pitcher who can eat innings is quite valuable.
I’m cool with reinventing oneself.
Tanana pitched to an ERA under 5.00 in his age 39 season and made 32 starts between the Mets and Yankees. So that’s not necessarily a bad thing.
However, Grienke is not going to any of the big east media markets. I could see him staying in Texas–with the Rangers
The tribe trade Tobias Meyers for Jeff Mcneil or dom smith
I keep seeing Clayton Kershaw’s name coming up. He is not going to pitch for the Mets.
Kershaw will pitch for the Dodgers or the Rangers. Here in Los Angeles, there was a long article written about him last Spring. He wants to stay with the Dodgers, but he lives in Texas, about twenty minutes from the Rangers park and his kids are now in school down there. He is very family oriented and does not want to be away from them for half the year. That is the choice he has to make – assuming the Rangers are interested in him.
In case you’re wondering why the Dodgers didn’t make a qualifying offer, it was out of respect for what he has meant to them. Friedman actually said he would be welcomed back, but they didn’t want to make it harder for him to go home if that is what he wanted..
So please stop fantasizing about him, if you’re not in Texas, he’s not coming there.
He should retire a Dodger then.
Pick up Kikuchi and then trade dom or McNeil for much much much needed depth.
Dom Smith would be a pretty good pickup for the As after they trade Olson. But the mets would have to give up more than that for one of their pitchers
Cincinnati sends Sonny gray to the Mets for Jeff McNeil. Fair for both sides?
Over pay by Cinci.
McNeil has more value lol
McNeil does nothing for the Reds. They have the reigning NL ROY at 2B with Jonathan India. Two 3B they have to figure out what to do with with Moustakas and Suarez. And a pretty good player in LF with Jesse Winker.
And i doubt Sonny would want to revisit New York, even if it is the other team
Bad trade for the Mets. They need McNeil. Other ways to get a Gray caliber pitcher.
I have already predicted a Reds/Royals World Series in the ‘40s.
Now we know why Tom Brady is thinking of retiring…
He likely would be better than the Mets 5th starter.
Trade Conforto and McNeil to the Yankees for Severino, Voit, and Urshela
Conforto is a free agent. What are you smoking?
Many posters dismiss Dom Smith as absolutely nothing. However, he just finished 13th in NL MVP voting in 2020 and he can’t be a FA until 2025. This combination means he no doubt has more value than what the average poster thinks.
Of course I don’t think he’s as good as the superstars who finished around him in the voting, but it’s a fact he finished among this impressive list of players:
12th Acuna
13th Smith
14th Darvish
15th Goldschmidt
That was a small sample size in 2020. Look at the other years and internal numbers to see why hardly any team (including the mets) value this guy.
Plenty of teams value him. He has MLB success and great prospect pedigree. He’s valued highly. Unfortunately he only plays first base which makes him of little use to most teams. First baseman are too easy to come by.
Smith has a career bWAR of 0.7. I think that under-values him, but I see no possibility that he is highly valued.
Highly valued in context. Put it this way, if, despite his struggles last year, he played shortstop, there’d be tons of teams looking to get him. His main problem is that he plays first, which drops his value down so much that he won’t bring back much in a trade.
TmanTheGoat,
I agree it was a small sample size and Dom’s numbers in 2021 were much worse than when he received MVP votes in 2020.
One important thing to keep in mind that likely contributed to his poorer offensive numbers last year is he’s primarily a 1st baseman, but in 2021 here’s the breakdown of his starts:
1B: 7 games
LF: 107 games
Ever since he was promoted to the big leagues he has played a few games in the OF, but last year he started 100 more games in LF than 1B.
Learning a new position on the fly at the MLB level is not easy. If given the opportunity to consistently play the position he was meant to play, he has more than a solid chance to flourish.
“Presuming good health, the Mets have a very strong cohort of veteran starters between Scherzer, 37, Jacob deGrom, 33, Carlos Carrasco, 35 in March, and Taijuan Walker, 30. Scherzer aside, however, that group has hardly been the most reliable foursome from a health perspective,”
outside of the shortened season where nobody made 30 gs and last year i think averaging 30 starts a season 4 out of 5 seasons is a pretty reliable number. with so many injuries and coming back from a shortened season and changes in balls etc etc. i would be cautious but to say not reliable is poor wording.
Would love to see a Robbie Hyde video about the possible targets. I’ve really been digging his videos. Don’t know if he is on this site or not.
Mets and A’s can help each other out. Mets have the prospects the A’s would be interested in, not to mention players that can fill the gap until more prospects come up.
Manaea, Bassett and Chapman could bring in one hell of a haul – Smith, Davis, McNeil, Batty, Mauricio, Vientos, Peterson, McGil…and Alvarez.
Thats too big. How about just Bassitt for Smith, Peterson and a 10-15 prospect
Yeah… I’d say the value is in getting 1-2 SPs.
And I imagine they’d have an interest in JD, too.
Mets need an innings eater who could either serve as a 5th starter or swingman. They already have Trevor Williams and could probably do ok with a Garrett Richards or Martin Perez
Only chance Mets compete in ‘22 is if deGrom is healthy and in form and Walker and Carrasco impress. Scherzer is still Scherzer so that’s terrific. Beyond these vets the team has to get back to developing and acquiring top pitching prospects. That has been the key to all their successful teams. And it would be nice to keep such talent as they move into their prime. The stupidest move in recent times was to let Zach Wheeler walk away in free agency.
Salty long tooth pitchers on big money deals are a recipe for disaster.Payroll is getting out of control in NY.If the big 2 go down the Mets are done.Legends de Grom and Scherzer didn’t end so good last yr with dead tired arms.I love both guys toeing it when their on but it’s a huge risk having a 250 million payroll and you can’t get anyone out.No beginners luck in baseball,just hard expensive lessons.
Kumar Rocker?
What happens to Rocker now? Is he considered a minor league free agent? Can he be signed by anyone? Does he have to go back to school? Play in the unaffiliated league?
He’s still deciding if he’ll pitch some independent league ball to showcase himself leading up to the 2022 draft
He and Boras are trying to dig a bigger hole than they had last year. He didn’t have a pre-draft medical, so when the Mets did their medical, they didn’t like the results. Rocker is currently not pitching, which screams out that he has an injury.
He’ll be drafted by a team, and in a round, where they can afford to have him have surgery.
That said, TJS is not the end of a career at his age, and he could be a very good gamble. He’s only just 22. Even with surgery, he could be in the show at age 25.
JoeBrady,
Your first paragraph is right on point.
I think Rocker must have a much more severe injury than “just” a UCL tear.
TJS has not scared the Mets away from drafting players. The year before the Mets drafted Rocker they drafted J.T. Ginn who had TJS only 3 months prior to the draft.
Are you sure that White Castle isn’t the problem?
The Mets roster is much improved over last season but they will not be true contenders without more pitching
It could get real ugly again.
I hope the Mets don’t just still Willy-nilly throw money at free agents. They should build packages for pitching around McNeil and either Dom Smith or JD Davis (since it looks almost for sure NL will have DH, so keep one), and see if it’s AT ALL possible to move Edwin Diaz.
1st they should trade for Manaea or Bassitt; Dom Smith, A Ball OF Hernandez, and a Low-A pitcher should be plenty, esp if OAK trades Olson and needs a 1B…
I dont even know what would be needed for Hader, but just keep 2 of Allan, Alvarez, Baty, and Mauricio, and im fine with anything else.
Literally trade Diaz for anyone, and to anyone, that’s willing to pay half his salary or more. Then sign Chafin, McHugh, and Hand— we’ll have to find out who closes in ST, but Chafin is VERY effective, Hand has closing experience despite ⅚ of his 2021 was bad (he was good for us), and best of all, no more wondering wtf Diaz is gonna give you, especially in big/close games. McHugh has real, and effective innings going in and out of the pen/rotation, which Mets will need with their extremely talented but high injury risk rotation!!
I read Twins MAY want to shed SOME salary, so if we can get them to move Taylor Rogers, there’s another closer candidate. I doubt Minny is in any hurry to trade him, but anyone can be had in the right deal.
Shedding McNeil, Diaz, and Dom will save a few bucks that can go to a SP and 1 RP, JD can DH with (uugghhh…) CANO, and Mets will finally have a much better bullpen, deeper rotation with REAL depth
Diaz is actually one of the best relievers in the league. Not sure why you want to toss him away.