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Chris Bassitt

Blue Jays To Sign Chris Bassitt

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December 16: Bassit’s deal has now been officially announced by the team, with left-hander Anthony Kay designated for assignment in a corresponding move. The contract is split into three even salaries of $21MM, per Shi Davidi of Sportsnet. The first season will actually be a $3MM signing bonus and $18MM salary, per Jon Heyman of The New York Post.

December 12: The Blue Jays have agreed to a three-year, $63MM contract with free-agent righty Chris Bassitt, reports ESPN’s Jeff Passan. Bassitt is represented by Meister Sports Management.

In adding Bassitt, the Jays have fortified a rotation that saw Ross Stripling reach free agency, lost Hyun Jin Ryu to Tommy John surgery early in the summer, and experienced substantial struggles from righty Jose Berrios and lefty Yusei Kikuchi in 2022. The ultra-consistent Bassitt will step into the mix behind third-place Cy Young finisher Alek Manoah and ninth-place finisher Kevin Gausman, with Berrios and Kikuchi likely to follow.

Bassitt, 34 in February, is a late-bloomer who didn’t establish himself as a consistent big league rotation piece until his age-29 season — partly due to Tommy John surgery wiping out the bulk of his 2016 season and all of his 2017 campaign. However, since a 2019 breakout with the A’s, he’s been among the sport’s most effective arms. In that time, Bassitt carries a sharp 3.31 ERA with a strong 23.1% strikeout rate, a tidy 6.7% walk rate and a 44.3% ground ball rate that’s a bit better than average.

Though Bassitt’s results have been excellent, he hasn’t quite yet solidified himself as a 30-start workhorse, although that’s not necessarily through any fault of his own. He missed the first few weeks of the 2019 season due to a leg contusion he suffered late in a spring training game but came back to make 28 appearances (25 starts) of 3.81 ERA ball. In 2020, he made 11 starts and tallied 63 innings during the pandemic-shortened 60-game schedule.

Bassitt looked well on his way to a career-best season in 2021 but was interrupted by one of the most frightening scenes in recent baseball memory, when he took a 100 mph line-drive off his face. The right-hander immediately dropped into a heap on the mound and had to be carted off the field with a towel covering his face. While there was originally some concern of long-term vision problems, Bassitt incredibly escaped with “only” fractures in his cheekbone and jawbone, with no further damage being revealed on a subsequent CT scan and no long-term vision issues. Bassitt not only avoided a worst-case scenario but returned from surgery just six weeks later and pitched 6 1/3 innings of one-run ball across two appearances to close out the season.

Traded to the Mets as part of the Athletics’ fire sale following the 2021 season — Oakland acquired righties J.T. Ginn and Adam Oller in the deal — Bassitt made a career-high 30 starts and reached a career-high 181 2/3 innings in New York. He also averaged better than six innings per start, turned in a career-best 48.8% ground-ball rate and recorded a 3.42 ERA with fielding-independent marks to match in what’ll now likely be his lone season in Queens.

The Mets made Bassitt a $19.65MM qualifying offer, which he unsurprisingly rejected, recognizing the opportunity for just this type of lucrative multi-year deal. By signing him to this contract, which lands right in line with the three-year, $60MM predicted by MLBTR at the outset of the offseason, the Blue Jays will be required to forfeit their second-highest pick in next summer’s draft. They’ll also see the cap on their international bonus pool for amateur free agents reduced by $500K.

That’s all of minimal concern to the Blue Jays, who are clearly in win-now mode as they look to keep pace in one of the game’s most competitive divisions. Adding Bassitt is a large step toward that end — one that ostensibly aligns with a push to improve the team’s run-prevention, perhaps at the expense of some offensive thunder.

Toronto kicked off its winter by trading its final year of club control over Teoscar Hernandez to the Mariners — a deal that netted them an under-the-radar but high-end reliever, Erik Swanson, and a fairly well regarded pitching prospect, Adam Macko. The Jays remained largely quiet in the weeks to come, but just this weekend struck a deal with longtime Rays center fielder Kevin Kiermaier — one of the premier defensive players in the sport (when healthy). Of course, staying on the field has been difficult for the oft-injured Kiermaier and his devil-may-care approach to defense in center; he’s currently on the mend from season-ending hip surgery.

While the financial specifics of Kiermaier’s contract have yet to come to light, the sequence of moves will surely bring the Jays up to a franchise-record payroll. Bassitt alone brings their projected payroll a bit north of $200MM — already a club record — and Roster Resource projects their luxury-tax ledger to check in a bit north of $225MM. It’s possible that Kiermaier alone will push them to the $233MM first tier of luxury penalization, which would mark the first time the Blue Jays have crossed that barrier.

Of course, the entire picture could still change — at least to some extent. Toronto is also in the market for a left-handed bat to add to an near-entirely right-handed lineup, and the Jays’ front office has reportedly been willing to listen to trade offers on its trio of MLB-caliber catchers: Danny Jansen, Alejandro Kirk and Gabriel Moreno. Free agents Michael Brantley and Michael Conforto are among the most obvious fits, but the Jays could also ship one-third of that catching triumvirate out as part of a deal to acquire a younger left-handed bat and/or additional reinforcements to a bullpen that could still benefit from an arm or two.

However the remainder of the offseason plays out, Bassitt’s addition to a pair of righties who generated some Cy Young love in 2022 should give the Jays a formidable rotation, even if none of Berrios, Kikuchi or sixth starter/swingman Mitch White bound back in 2023. Not only will the Jays be strong on a per-inning basis, but the combination of Manoah, Gausman and Bassitt have all averaged better than 5 2/3 innings per start in recent years, which should go a long way toward helping keep the team’s bullpen fresh.

Berrios, at his best, has been similar — averaging six-plus innings per outing in 2018, 2019 and 2021. However,, the 2022 season was a wildly uncharacteristic one for Berrios, who in many ways paralleled Bassitt in terms of consistent, year-to-year results prior to his first full campaign in Toronto. If any of Bassitt, Kikuchi or White can turn in a strong showing this coming season, Toronto’s rotation could very well rank among the best and deepest in Major League Baseball.

Blue Jays Designate Anthony Kay For Assignment

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The Blue Jays have officially announced their signing of right-hander Chris Bassitt. To make room on the 40-man roster, left-hander Anthony Kay has been designated for assignment.

A first-round selection of the Mets in 2016, Kay was seen as a potential quick-to-the-majors starter based on the strength of his control. He underwent Tommy John surgery just a few months into his professional career, however, costing him the entire 2017 campaign. Kay returned with a new curveball to pair with his fastball-changeup combination, working his way to Triple-A by 2019.

Midway through that season, New York dealt him to the Blue Jays alongside Simeon Woods Richardson to land Marcus Stroman. Kay got to the big leagues briefly at the end of the year, making three appearances with Toronto. He’s appeared at the MLB level in each of the three subsequent seasons, though he’s yet to establish himself as a consistent presence on a big league staff.

Kay has made 28 MLB appearances, seven of which were starts. Over 70 2/3 innings, he owns a 5.48 ERA. Kay has averaged 94 MPH on his fastball and punched out a solid 23.5% of batters faced, but the plus control that was once his calling card has dipped. He’s walked nearly 12% of big league opponents, and the Jays have bounced him on and off the MLB roster the past few seasons.

Through parts of three Triple-A campaigns, the UCONN product owns a 6.02 ERA in 107 2/3 frames. He was limited to eight outings and 14 innings at that level this year, losing much of the season on the minor league injured list. Kay looked rusty in that stretch, surrendering 14 runs with 15 strikeouts and 11 walks.

Toronto will now have a week to trade Kay or place him on waivers. The 27-year-old still has a minor league option year remaining, so another team could stash him in Triple-A for a season if they’re willing to keep him on the 40-man roster. With between one and two years of MLB service, he won’t reach arbitration until after the 2024 season at the earliest.

Padres Were Finalists For Chris Bassitt

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Chris Bassitt agreed to a three-year, $63MM deal with the Blue Jays earlier this week, but Jon Heyman of The New York Post reports that the Padres were in on the bidding and were one of the finalists. It’s not known if they made a formal offer or what it looked like, but the fact that they were somewhat close is nonetheless noteworthy.

The Padres were never really a financial powerhouse in the baseball world but they have changed that reputation in the past few years. They had never run an Opening Day payroll reaching $110MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, until they shot up to $174MM in 2021 and $211MM in 2022, effectively doubling their previous franchise highs. It appears that we still don’t know where their limit is, as they have continued spending this winter.

After aggressive overtures to Aaron Judge and Trea Turner were turned down, the club pivoted and gave Xander Bogaerts a deal worth $280MM over 11 years. That’s brought the club’s payroll up to $235MM for next year, per Roster Resource, already more than $20MM beyond last year’s mark.

Perhaps more importantly, the club’s competitive balance tax figure is at $255MM, already beyond the second luxury tax tier of $253MM. The Padres paid the CBT in both 2021 and 2022, setting them up to be third-time payors in 2023. There are escalating penalties for teams that pay in consecutive seasons, with the Padres already looking at a 50% tax on all spending beyond $233MM with greater penalties at the three subsequent tiers that go up in $20MM increments. Going beyond $253MM, which they are already lined up to do, comes with a 62% tax while going beyond $273MM would come with a 95% tax hit and see their top pick in next year’s draft moved back ten spots.

We don’t know what kind of offer the Padres made to Bassitt, but if it was competitive enough to get near what he accepted from the Jays, it was likely at least near the $20MM range in terms of average annual value. That shows that the club has at least some willingness to add that kind of money to their payroll and CBT figure. Signing Bassitt, or any other player, to a $20MM salary would lead to the Padres also paying over $12MM in taxes.

If they do have that kind of money to spend, the fact they are considering a rotation upgrade is not surprising. They have a strong front three in Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish and Blake Snell, but the back end is a bit less certain. The club re-signed Nick Martinez, who began 2022 in the rotation but was eventually bumped to the bullpen, where he proved to be more effective. He posted a 4.30 ERA as a starter and a 2.67 as a reliever. There’s also Adrian Morejon, though he’s an unknown commodity after undergoing Tommy John surgery in April of 2021. He returned in 2022 and tossed 34 innings over 26 relief appearances, which is encouraging but might make it hard for him to suddenly jump to 150 innings or more next year. There’s also the long-term picture to consider, as both Snell and Darvish are set to reach free agency after 2023, leaving Musgrove as the only true building block of the rotation. Adding a reliable starter makes plenty of sense for now and for the future.

Though Bassitt got away, the Padres still have options in free agency. If they truly want to go wild with the spending, Carlos Rodón is the top free agent pitcher available. Aside from him, other options include Nathan Eovaldi, Noah Syndergaard, Michael Wacha, Corey Kluber, Drew Rucinski, Johnny Cueto, Drew Smyly and others.

Giants Not Currently Considering Chris Bassitt

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TODAY: Bassitt isn’t currently in the Giants’ plans, as Slusser tweets that a pursuit of the right-hander is “not in the cards at the moment.”

DECEMBER 10: The Giants “appear to have interest in” free agent right-hander Chris Bassitt, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports.  Checking in on Bassitt would track with the Giants’ general interest in starting pitching this winter, as they have also been linked to Carlos Rodon, Kodai Senga, Sean Manaea, and Shintaro Fujinami this winter, and plus Andrew Heaney before Heaney with the Rangers.

There haven’t been too many rumblings on Bassitt to date, though he entered the offseason as one of the top pitching options on the market.  MLBTR rated Bassitt as the fifth-best starter available this winter (and 13th overall on our Top 50 Free Agents list), and of the four pitchers placed ahead of Bassitt, only Rodon and Senga remain, while Jacob deGrom signed with the Rangers and Justin Verlander joined the Mets.

In signing Verlander and Jose Quintana, the Mets have already found rotation replacements for deGrom and Taijuan Walker.  Bassitt and the Mets had some mutual interest in a reunion before the offseason began, and given how aggressive New York has been in adding free agents and building payroll, it wouldn’t count as a surprise if the team splurged again to bring Bassitt back to Queens.

That said, recent reports suggest that the Mets don’t have interest in giving Bassitt anything more than three guaranteed years, and the right-hander is still looking for at least a four-year contract.  Bassitt’s desire for such a lengthy commitment might also be a reason why the pitching-needy Blue Jays have only limited interest for now.  The qualifying offer is also surely a factor, as Bassitt rejected the Mets’ QO, and thus any team who signs the righty will have to give up draft compensation.

The Mets and Blue Jays have been the only teams known to have any interest in Bassitt, but it’s probably fair to guess that several other teams in need of pitching have at least made some calls to Bassitt’s reps at Meister Sports Management.  After all, Bassitt did post a 3.42 ERA/3.75 SIERA over 181 2/3 innings with New York last season, with an above-average 6.6% walk rate, a career-best 48.8% grounder rate, and excellent hard-contact numbers.

With top-ten finishes in AL Cy Young Award voting as a member of the Athletics in 2020-21, Bassitt is also from a one-year wonder, and he still projects as a solid starter heading into his age-34 season.  Just based on age alone, however, teams may be a little wary of going beyond a three-year deal, especially a Giants team that has traditionally looked to sign players (especially pitchers) to shorter-term contracts.  Under president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi, San Francisco has yet to sign a player to a deal beyond three years.

That said, the Giants did make a concerted effort to sign Aaron Judge this winter, and naturally that contract would’ve gone well beyond three years.  Judge and Bassitt represent very different free agents, yet if San Francisco is getting more aggressive in its pursuits this offseason, it is possible the club might be willing to consider a four-year deal if it’ll clinch a Bassitt signing.

With Logan Webb as the ace, Bassitt could slide into the No. 2 starter role, ahead of Alex Cobb, Alex Wood, and Anthony DeSclafani.  Adding another starter would allow the Giants to move Jakob Junis back into the preferred role of swingman, and Bassitt in particular would bring durability.  DeSclafani is a bit of a wild card after spending much of the 2022 season on the injured list, and Wood also has a long injury history.  Signing Bassitt would probably take San Francisco out of the running for Rodon, but since Rodon also turned down a qualifying offer, the Giants would get a compensatory pick back if Rodon signed elsewhere, somewhat offsetting the penalty they’d incur for signing Bassitt.

Blue Jays Notes: Senga, Bassitt, Taillon, Reyes, Brantley, Gallo

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The Blue Jays are exploring several roster upgrades, with Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith reporting that the club has interest in such players as Kodai Senga, Jameson Taillon, Alex Reyes, and Michael Brantley.  “There doesn’t appear to be traction…at the moment” between the Jays and Chris Bassitt, though the right-hander is another free agent hurler at least under consideration for the team.

Starting pitching is Toronto’s clearest need, and as one agent told Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi, the Blue Jays are “all over the pitching market” right now.  To this end, it is fair to speculate that the Jays have at least checked in on basically every available arm, which has been the team’s strategy for the previous three offseasons.  Davidi adds that the Jays also “have some degree of interest” in Carlos Rodon, Nathan Eovaldi, and their own incumbent free agent in Ross Stripling.  Past reports have indicated that the Jays have extended an offer to Andrew Heaney, and they were interested in Kyle Gibson (before Gibson rejected Toronto’s one-year, $10MM offer to sign an identical deal with the Orioles), and even Justin Verlander, before Verlander joined the Mets.

Alek Manoah and Kevin Gausman have solidified the front end of the Blue Jays’ rotation, but there is a lot of uncertainty afterwards, given how Jose Berrios and especially Yusei Kikuchi struggled in 2022.  There isn’t necessarily a guarantee that Kikuchi will even get a clear shot at a starting role, since he could at best be competing with Mitch White for the fifth starter’s job, or perhaps even be relegated to the bullpen if the Jays end up acquiring two new starters this winter.

As noted by both Nicholson-Smith and Davidi, the fact that the Jays were considering getting into Verlander’s market (even on a short-term deal) is another sign of how aggressive the team is willing to be, and perhaps a sign of how far they’ll stretch the payroll.  Bigger spending may be somewhat inevitable given the rising costs involved in the pitching market this offseason, though it might be a reach to see the Blue Jays spend what it will take to sign Rodon or perhaps even Senga, considering how the Japanese ace is drawing a lot of attention from multiple teams.  Speculatively, the Jays’ relative lack of interest in Bassitt could have to do with Bassitt’s desire for at least four guaranteed years, which may be a tall order for a pitcher heading into his age-34 season.

Reyes represents another kind of pitching addition, as the former top prospect is an intriguing bounce-back candidate who would fit on a lot of teams.  That said, Reyes also carries plenty of risk given his long injury history, including a shoulder surgery that kept him from pitching whatsoever in 2022.  It will be interesting to see how Reyes’ market materializes, as the Blue Jays and other teams will naturally be weighing the injury concerns, but the sheer amount of interest could still lead to a decent payday for the right-hander.

Beyond the pitching market, the Jays are also looking for left-handed hitting outfielders.  A gap in the outfield emerged after Toronto dealt Teoscar Hernandez to the Mariners, and a lefty swinger could help add balance to a largely right-handed Blue Jays lineup.  Brantley is one possibility, and while he is a player the Jays reportedly came very close to signing in the 2020-21 offseason, health questions also surround Brantley’s market.  Shoulder problems that eventually required surgery limited Brantley to only 64 games last season, and he has missed a lot of time earlier in his career with other injury woes.

Such names as Brandon Nimmo and Cody Bellinger have also been linked to the Jays’ outfield search this winter, and agent Scott Boras told Nicholson-Smith and Hazel Mae (Twitter link) that Toronto indeed had interest in both of his clients.  Boras also said the Blue Jays had interest in another client in Joey Gallo, another left-handed hitter.

Gallo is coming off a thoroughly rough 2022 season, hitting only .160/.280/.357 with 19 homers over 410 plate appearances with the Yankees and Dodgers.  Gallo’s “three true outcomes” style will always limit his offensive productivity to some extent, yet he is only entering his age-29 season, and Gallo’s strikeouts haven’t stopped him from posting some big offensive numbers in the past.  As recently as 2021, Gallo posted a 4.2 fWAR season, and his ability to play a decent center field would also be of interest to a Jays team that would ideally like to give George Springer more time in a corner outfield spot.

With Gallo, Bellinger, and probably Brantley all in line to receive one-year bounce-back types of contracts, the Jays could be planning to address the outfield with just a shorter-term addition, and then focus on a longer-term addition for the rotation.  The Blue Jays appear to be open to all possibilities, however, and their pursuit of free agents is also obviously impacted by what they might do on the trade market, especially with their catching depth being in high demand.

Chris Bassitt Looking For At Least A Four-Year Contract

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Free agent starter Chris Bassitt is “seeking a contract longer than three years,” according to Mike Puma of the New York Post (Twitter link). This might impact the chances of a reunion between Bassitt and the Mets, as Puma writes that the Amazins aren’t keen on going beyond a three-year deal.

This is Bassitt’s first trip to free agency after playing in parts of eight MLB seasons and he is entering his age-34 campaign. Given how well he has pitched since his 2018 return from Tommy John surgery, it isn’t surprising that Bassitt would want to land the biggest contract possible in his first crack at a lucrative multi-year agreement. Of course, from the perspective of any pitching-needy teams, Bassitt’s age and injury history are also reasons to be wary of committing significant money to the right-hander into his age-37 or even his age-38 season.

The TJ surgery and subsequent recovery kept Bassitt off a big league mound for over two full years, from April 2016 to June 2018. As such, an argument could be made that Bassitt’s arm is actually pretty fresh for a pitcher of his age, given that he has only 737 1/3 Major League innings on his resume. Since returning from the Tommy John rehab, Bassitt has been pretty durable, missing a few weeks in 2019 with a lower-leg contusion and a week this season on the COVID-related injury list. Bassitt’s most notable injury was a facial fracture in late 2021, after he was hit in the face by a line drive off the bat of Brian Goodwin — remarkably, Bassitt was able to return to action a little over a month later.

Bassitt declined his end of a $19MM mutual option for 2023, and he then turned down a qualifying offer from the Mets. Therefore, his market could also be impacted by the draft compensation a new team would have to surrender to sign the righty. The QO has tended to be a bit more of an obstacle for players like Bassitt who aren’t in the clear-cut upper tier of the free agent market, but given some of the early action on the pitching market, the demand for arms should help Bassitt land a sizeable deal, and perhaps even a fourth guaranteed year.

After all, Jacob deGrom already surpassed expectations by landing a five-year deal from the Rangers, which will be worth at least $185MM. With deGrom off the board, the Mets may have to think harder about going outside their comfort zone if they want to bring Bassitt back to Queens. New York has been connected to several other pitchers besides Bassitt, as such names as Justin Verlander, Carlos Rodon, and Jameson Taillon have also emerged on the Mets’ radar in recent days.

12 Players Reject Qualifying Offers

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Twelve of the 14 players who received qualifying offers have rejected those one-year, $19.65MM contracts in favor of testing the open market, tweets Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. Martin Perez and Joc Pederson are the only two who accepted a QO. Each of Aaron Judge, Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts, Dansby Swanson, Jacob deGrom, Carlos Rodon, Brandon Nimmo, Willson Contreras, Anthony Rizzo, Chris Bassitt, Nathan Eovaldi and Tyler Anderson have rejected the deal. Anderson is already in agreement on a three-year contract with the Angels.

None of the news is all that surprising, aside from perhaps Anderson’s early multi-year strike with the Halos. Perez and Pederson were two of the three most likely candidates to take the QO. That the Giants tagged Pederson at all was a move few saw coming, and most believed he’d indeed take the QO once it was put forth.

None of Judge, Turner, Bogaerts, Swanson, deGrom, Rodon, Nimmo, Bassitt or Contreras likely gave much thought to the possibility. Eovaldi and Rizzo were more borderline candidates, but the latter quickly returns to the Yankees on a multi-year deal that’ll pay him around the QO rate over two guaranteed seasons. Eovaldi has yet to sign, but he’ll presumably continue to search for a longer-term contract after taking advantage of the five days to scour the market.

The clubs that saw a free agent decline a qualifying offer now stand to receive draft compensation if that player signs elsewhere. The value of the compensatory pick depends on a team’s status as a revenue sharing recipient and/or whether they paid the luxury tax in 2022. That’s also true of the draft choices and potentially international signing bonus space a team would have to forfeit to sign a qualified free agent from another team.

MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes broke down the forfeiture each team would have to surrender to sign a qualified free agent earlier this month. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk looked at the compensation each club would receive if one of these players signed elsewhere.

Chris Bassitt To Decline Qualifying Offer

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Right-hander Chris Bassitt was one of 14 players to receive a qualifying offer ahead of yesterday’s deadline, getting the one-year, $19.65MM offer from the Mets. However, Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports that Bassitt will turn that down and seek a multi-year deal.

Bassitt, 34 in February, wasn’t as much of a slam-dunk case to reject the QO as superstars like Aaron Judge or Jacob deGrom. Nevertheless, it never seemed especially likely that he would accept it either. Over the past four years, he has established himself as a consistently effective hurler.

Since the start of 2019, he’s thrown 546 innings with a 3.31 ERA, 23.1% strikeout rate, 6.7% walk rate and 44.3% ground ball rate. His 9.3 fWAR in that time is 32nd among all pitchers in baseball. He might not be an ace, but he’s a solid and reliable pitcher that would upgrade just about any rotation in the league. Starting pitching is always in high demand and Bassitt figures to garner plenty of interest in the weeks and months to come.

He’s a bit of an unusual case in that he didn’t really establish himself until he was 30 and now reaches free agency with his 34th birthday coming up during Spring Training. Going through the arbitration system, he got his salary as high as $8.65MM in 2022, plus a $150K buyout on the mutual option he eventually turned down. That means that a $19.65MM salary would be more than double his previous career high. However, this is likely his greatest chance at long-term security, given his strong multi-year platform. Taking the QO and returning to free agency a year from now would mean that he’s one year older, which would dampen his offers, and there’s always the chance of some kind of injury limiting his market at that point. Even with the QO attached, MLBTR predicts he can earn effectively the value of the QO but with a longer commitment, $60MM over three years.

There’s nothing preventing he and the Mets from reuniting on a new contract, though the Mets will now be competing with the 29 other teams. Should Bassitt ultimately sign elsewhere this winter, the Mets will be entitled to draft pick compensation. Since the Mets paid the competitive balance tax in 2022, their compensatory pick gets bumped to after the fourth round. Under this scenario, the team signing Bassitt will also be subject to forfeiting at least one draft pick, with the exact nature of the penalty dependant upon if that team paid the CBT or received revenue sharing.

14 Players Receive Qualifying Offers

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14 players received qualifying offers this year, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN (Twitter link). The list is as follows:

As a refresher, the qualifying offer is a one-year offer a team can make to impending free agents. Players who have previously received a QO in their careers and/or didn’t spend the entire preceding season with one team cannot receive a qualifying offer. The value of the offer is calculated by averaging the salaries of the 125 highest-paid players in MLB. For the 2022-23 offseason, it is set at $19.65MM.

If a player accepts the QO, he returns to his current team for next season on that salary. If he declines, the team would receive compensation if he were to sign elsewhere. The specific compensation depends on the team’s status as both a luxury tax payor and whether they receive revenue sharing payments. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk took a look at the compensation each team would receive for losing a qualified free agent last week.

Signing a player who refuses a QO from another team requires the signing team to forfeit draft picks and/or international signing bonus space. As with compensation for losing qualified free agents, the specific nature of the forfeiture is dependent on revenue sharing status and the competitive balance tax.

[Related: Which Picks Would Each Team Forfeit By Signing A Qualified Free Agent?]

The majority of players who receive qualifying offers decline them each offseason. Judge, Turner, Bogaerts, deGrom, Swanson, Rodón, Nimmo, Contreras and Bassitt were always virtual locks to receive a QO. They’ll assuredly turn them down and sign multi-year contracts, either with their incumbent teams or other clubs. Rejecting a qualifying offer, to be clear, does not affect a player’s ability to continue negotiating with his previous team.

Rizzo, Anderson and Pérez were all more borderline QO candidates, although reports in recent days had suggested each was likely to receive the offer. There’s a case for all three players in that group to accept, although their representatives will have five days to gauge the market before making that decision. Pérez has reportedly received a two-year offer from Texas. The sides have long expressed mutual interest in agreement, but they’ve yet to come to terms on a longer deal.

The final two qualified free agents come as more surprising developments. Eovaldi always looked like a borderline QO candidate. He recently wrapped up a four-year, $68MM contract with the Red Sox. The right-hander was generally effective over the life of that deal, but his 2022 campaign was more of a mixed bag. Shoulder and back injuries limited him to 20 starts and 109 1/3 innings. His 3.87 ERA over that stretch was right in line with his 2020-21 marks, but his strikeout rate dropped a few points to a league average 22.4%. Eovaldi’s fastball also dipped slightly from siting just under 97 MPH down to 95.7 MPH, but that’s still plenty impressive velocity. Paired with his elite strike-throwing ability and the Red Sox’s need for rotation help, they’d be content to bring the 32-year-old back for just under $20MM if he accepted the QO.

The most surprising qualifying offer recipient, however, is Pederson. San Francisco signed the outfielder to a one-year, $6MM deal last winter after an up-and-down 2021 campaign with the Cubs and Braves. The left-handed slugger responded with an excellent .274/.353/.521 showing, connecting on 23 home runs in 433 plate appearances. Pederson also posted elite batted ball marks, including a 93.2 MPH average exit velocity that’s around five MPH above league average. He also made hard contact (a batted ball hit 95 MPH or harder) on a career-best 52.1% of his balls in play.

That figured to give 30-year-old a strong shot at a multi-year offer, although it’s still surprising to see the Giants offer him nearly $20MM to return. Pederson played left field in Oracle Park, but he rated as 12 runs below average over 685 innings in the estimation of Defensive Runs Saved. He’s consistently posted subpar defensive marks and is limited to the corner outfield or designated hitter. The Giants also shielded him against southpaws, limping him to 57 plate appearances against left-handed pitching.

Some notable players who were eligible for a qualifying offer but did not receive one include Jameson Taillon, Mitch Haniger, Taijuan Walker, Andrew Heaney and Michael Wacha. That group will all hit the open market unencumbered by draft pick compensation, which should be a boost to their free agent stocks.

Of the crop of QO recipients, Pederson looks likeliest to accept, although it’s possible that anyone in the group turns the offer down if their reps find interest over multi-year pacts. Players have until the evening of November 15 to determine whether to accept or turn down the QO.

Mets Will Not Make Qualifying Offer To Taijuan Walker

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The Mets have opted against issuing a $19.65MM qualifying offer to right-hander Taijuan Walker, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Walker, who made the easy decision to decline a $7.5MM player option earlier this week, will now reach free agency with no restrictions and will not be subject to draft-pick compensation. Unsurprisingly, Heyman adds that the Mets plan to make a QO to all three of Jacob deGrom, Brandon Nimmo and Chris Bassitt.

Walker, who turned 30 in August, was a borderline candidate and might well have rejected his offer upon receiving one, though the Mets won’t find out and will instead accept the possibility of losing him for no compensation. As a luxury tax payor, they’ll “only” receive a pick between the fourth and fifth round for any free agent who rejects a qualifying offer, and apparently the notion of potentially tying up $19.65MM in salary to Walker right out of the offseason gate wasn’t worth that fairly modest bit of compensation for GM Billy Eppler and his staff.

It’s great news for Walker, who’ll now head into free agency search of a multi-year deal that could span three or perhaps even four years in length. The former top prospect has shaken off many of the injury concerns that stemmed from Tommy John surgery and shoulder surgery earlier in his career, making 69 of roughly 76 possible starts across the past three seasons. That includes 29 starts and more than 155 innings in each of the past two campaigns.

Since 2020, Walker has pitched to a 3.80 ERA with a 21.5% strikeout rate, 7.8% walk rate and a 43.2% ground-ball rate. He’s averaged just about 5 1/3 innings per outing in that time, though that would seem to be more in an effort to monitor his workload than due to strong concerns about turning a lineup over for the third time. Since 2020, Walker has yielded a .232/.303/.391 batting line when facing opponents for the third time on a given day. While his numbers the first and second time through the order are better, it’s not the type of cringeworthy third-time split you’ll see with so many starting pitchers.

Walker’s fastball sat 93.8 mph in 2022, so he doesn’t have premium velocity. He doesn’t miss bats or generate grounders at an especially high level but also limits walks at a solid clip. He may not stand out in any one way, but he increasingly looks like a durable mid-rotation arm who could deepen nearly any starting staff in the Majors.

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