Amidst another rebuilding year, the Pirates have ample uncertainty in the starting rotation. Free agent signee José Quintana is going to get one spot, with the Bucs hoping he performs well enough to be flipped midseason for younger talent. JT Brubaker had solid enough strikeout and walk numbers over 24 starts last year to get another opportunity, while Zach Thompson — acquired from the Marlins in the Jacob Stallings deal — is likely to be in the mix.
Among those likely under consideration for spots at the back of the rotation are two former top prospects: right-handers Mitch Keller and Bryse Wilson. Both pitchers are in their mid-20s, and they were each among Baseball America’s top 100 overall farmhands as recently as three years ago. At the peak of their prospect status, both pitchers were viewed as potential long-term members of a starting rotation. Yet neither has yet established himself as such, and one could argue that 2022 will function as a make-or-break sort of season for both.
Keller has been a familiar name for Pirates fans for some time. A second-round pick out of high school in 2014, he emerged as one of the sport’s most promising pitching prospects after a dominating showing in Low-A in 2016. Entering the 2017 campaign, BA considered him the game’s #22 overall farmhand. He’d remain among the top 60 prospects in each of the following three seasons, pairing a mid-90s fastball with a plus curveball that led many to project him as a future mid-rotation arm.
The Iowa native made his big league debut in 2019. While he allowed a 7.13 ERA over his first 48 MLB innings, Keller was plagued by an astounding .475 batting average on balls in play. His 28.6% strikeout rate, 7% walk percentage and 11.8% swinging strike rate all looked like indicators he could indeed be a mid-rotation or better arm in the making. Keller was limited to just five starts in the shortened 2020 campaign, ironically posting a very good ERA (2.91) but dreadful peripherals. Still, as he entered his age-25 season last year, Keller looked to be a key piece of the Bucs’ long-term plans.
That’s perhaps more of a question now, though. He started 23 games and worked 100 2/3 innings, but he managed just a 6.17 ERA. As with 2019, some horrible ball in play results (.388 opponents’ BABIP) played a role in his struggles keeping runs off the board. But Keller’s fielding-independent numbers weren’t nearly as impressive last year as they’d been during his debut campaign. His 19.6% strikeout rate and 10.4% walk percentage were each a few points worse than the respective league averages. Among the 129 hurlers with 100+ frames, Keller placed 121st in swinging strikes (8.2%).
Keller’s fastball velocity has ticked down a bit since his prospect peak, but a 93.9 MPH average fastball is still more than sufficient. Arguably more concerning is that none of his offspeed pitches was particularly effective. Only his slider was in the realm of average in terms of generating whiffs, and each of his slider, curve and changeup were hit hard. Finding a consistently reliable secondary pitch figures to be a focus for Keller and pitching coach Oscar Marin. If he doesn’t show promise in that regard, the front office could be faced with a tough decision. Keller’s on track to reach arbitration eligibility next offseason, and he could be a non-tender candidate if he posts another season like his 2021 campaign.
The urgency might be even greater for Wilson. While he’s not set to reach arbitration until after the 2023 season (unless the union succeeds in its efforts to expand eligibility for players in the 2-3 year service bucket during CBA talks), Wilson is facing roster pressure of a different sort. He’s out of minor league option years, meaning the Pirates would need to make him available to the rest of the league if they decide to bump him off the active roster.
An overslot fourth-round selection out of high school by the Braves in 2016, Wilson posted absurd numbers in the low minors over his first two years in pro ball. By 2018, the North Carolina native was traversing four levels. He began that season in High-A but pitched his way to the majors by August. Wilson only made three MLB appearances down the stretch, but that he was in the big leagues by age 20 was itself a remarkable accomplishment.
Wilson headed into 2019 as a consensus top 100 prospect, albeit at the back half of most lists. While he wasn’t viewed as a future top-of-the-rotation arm, most expected Wilson could cement himself within the Atlanta rotation in short order. He spent the bulk of 2019 in Triple-A, though, and he was shuttled between MLB and the alternate training site throughout 2020. Wilson started only six big league games between those two years.
Last year, Wilson got his first extended MLB opportunity. He made eight starts apiece with the Braves and Pirates, who acquired him at the trade deadline as part of the Richard Rodríguez swap. Unfortunately, he didn’t find much success at either stop. Between the two clubs, he combined for a 5.35 ERA across 74 innings.
Wilson showed strong control (6.8% walk rate) but struggled with home runs and only fanned 14.3% of opponents on a meager 8.7% swinging strike rate. Wilson, like Keller, suffered from an inability to find a reliable swing-and-miss secondary pitch. He used his fastball nearly as much as any starter around the league, likely playing a part in both his lack of whiffs and home run issues.
For both Keller and Wilson, the 2022 campaign looks likely to be a key developmental season. Wilson will need to pitch well enough to stick on the active roster; Keller can be sent back to the minors, but he’s likely to be in his final pre-arbitration year. As they rebuild, the Pirates can afford to give the former top prospects another opportunity. Yet if Keller and/or Wilson are to establish themselves as rotation cogs, as many anticipated they would a few years ago, they’ll have to find more success against big league hitters than they have in recent seasons.
Keller has been in a pitching camp as much as I’ve seen and he’s averaging 98 now, it’s amazing to watch.
He’s in the best shape of his life, right?!
How did Wilson end up running out of options already? Do players only have 3 years of options? I can’t remember the last time I saw a player run out of options multiple years before he even hits arbitration.
The funniest thing about these two guys… I wonder how they would have turned out if they were developed in an organization like Cleveland. Does anyone think Cleveland would have had a starting pitcher who was ranked one of the top 22 overall prospects in baseball, like Keller, and not have him work out? Even someone like AJ Puk. That guy was widely considered to be the best overall prospect in his draft. I wonder if it’s just luck that all of Cleveland’s starting pitchers turned out so well or if former highly regarded prospects like these would have actually ended up being that much better in the Cleveland organization. If Puk, Keller and Wilson all came up through the Cleveland organization along with guys like Sean Newcomb, Touki Toussaint and Kyle Wright, how do you guys think they would be performing right now?
If only Cleveland could figure out how to develop hitters…
What exactly does this even mean mr Mendoza?
He’s been involved with an analytical pitching camp during the off season, he’s throwing 99 routinely now
The fastest I saw him hit was 100.8 MPH. They said his previous high was lke 98.3 MPH. He looks like a different guy now.
Don’t always buy into that as a great sign. It sounds good and I hope it is good. When I had a layover in the Atlanta airport last year I was reading the newspaper talking about former highly regarded top Braves pitching prospects. One of them was the former top overall prospect in the Angel’s farm system. He’s the guy the Braves traded Andrelton Simmons in his prime to get. The guys name is Sean Newcomb. Last Spring training Newcomb was hitting 100+ for the first time in his career. People were thinking he was finally turning into what they thought he would be and would actually throw harder than they ever thought. The article made me want to keep up with his progress throughout the year. He was still pretty worthless. I hope Keller works out and he very well could. I’m just saying don’t always put a ton of weight into a former top pitching prospect suddenly hitting triple digits velocity in the offseason. I imagine it works out sometimes but compared to pitching in an actual major league game it means relatively little. He may throw harder now but it would be hard to believe that Keller is suddenly a much better pitcher after just a few months when he wasn’t even pitching in games. He should still be a lot better next season, though. That .475 BABIP was so high there has to be a ton of bad luck involved for him. His BABIP could easily drop 150-175 points by chance. That would help him a ton.
I wonder what happened to allowing pitchers develop a secondary and third pitch? The league has been just forming fastball pitchers with little effort to throw in a slider, change up, curve, forkball, etc. etc. most of the new pitchers dominate for 2-3 years and then wheels fall off. Someone isn’t doing their job and developing these guys well enough.
I agree. That is the same knock on Wilson. He’s always had a great fastball but he’s pretty much a 1 pitch pitcher. It’s really hard to be a starter that way. It seems like teams are drafting players based off their fastball and believe they can help them develop secondary pitches. A lot of those teams must not be holding up their end of the bargain because the pitchers still only have one pitch.
How can Wilson be labeled as a “Pirates former top prospect”? He’s a former Braves top prospect looking for an opportunity with Pittsburgh. He will be in the rotation every 5th day, probably as the #5 guy. As for Keller, not all high draft picks work out. Hopefully he finds some consistency at some level, but he might be one of those players who just doesn’t make it. Its fine and no big deal. This is a risk-free year for Pittsburgh to do anything.
It’s odd grammar but the possessive pirates does not indicate that the prospects are the pirates prospects only that they are in the current Poseidon of the pirates and we’re indeed top prospects
@bucs He is a former top prospect, currently employed by the Pirates. That’s how. You kind of answered your own question by putting “former” before “Braves” where the author put “Pirates” before “former”.
BC said before the lockout that the Bucs were going to try to find some additional pitching help. Let’s hope he finds another starter so the Bucs only have to use one of those guys – preferably Wilson. I’ve seen about all I care to see of Keller. I hope he proves me wrong, but I won’t hold my breath for that eventuality. Besides, I’m looking forward to Contreras joining the rotation by the end of April or May, depending on the lockout period.
With 10 rotation options let that best man win. Nothing wrong with giving Keller a final spring and 1 month in mlb look with a 70 win team.
Probably the same guy who gave up on Tyler Glasnow? I mean, Keller has similar stat line as Glasnow out of the gate. The real issue is, is the current pitching coach and pitching assistants compatible to Keller? I haven’t seen an improvement with the pitching staff under this new coaching scheme. It’s quite ridiculous to toss Keller out so quickly after two season’s. Pirates don’t have a vocal veteran to help the young pitchers like they had with AJ Burnett and Francisco Liriano. Those two helped guys like Garrit Cole, Tallion, Anderson, Morton, and others. I doubt Quintana will be that vocal voice needed or even leadership quality. This are hard to come by at the moment. Verlander, Kershaw, and some other notable names, won’t sign with Pittsburgh. It’s a challenge for Pittsburgh to turn around a rotation that is so young or unproven.
Anderson? He was on the 2021 squad, long after those guys where gone
Keller is 6’9″ and throws 102? News to me
Keller’s career old-school numbers: 39 starts, 3 quality starts, 170.1 IP, 212 hits, .311 BA, 6.02 ERA, 1.73 WHIP. Of course, he gets another shot. The Bucs have to fill out a starting rotation with the best they have. If he is among the best, keep him until we get better pitchers. I hope he’s improved enough this season to win the job, but if he hasn’t improved, why not send him to AAA and let him get better there.
I think that for teams like the Pirates the depth has been either AAA or at best AAAA pitchers.I think that these guys should all have to prove themselves at AAA first but the lack of depth has caused them to need pitchers like him to fill innings.They figure that he has the talent and they get a shot at evaluating him at the ML level and see what he needs to improve upon.I think that for the last two and a half years their pitching depth has been so dreadful that it has caused to be especially bad during the second half of each year.
Not to mention that their best starter last year was Tyler Anderson and they shipped him off at the trade deadline, which didn’t help their second half. They have 10-12 guys to choose from this year so I hope they can find 6 who are improved enough to pitch in the Bigs and the rest need to be sent off to develop more. They need to pitch regularly in the minors and work on their weaknesses.
I actually wouldn’t mind getting him back this year as I would like to see them get up to 71 wins this year to at least be somewhat competitive.
My post later in this thread says how I would approach aligning their starting staff this year.They do at least have some depth even if it is only potential 4th and 5th starters for now.
We are in agreement Budget.
Dillon Peters!! If his back is ok, he should earn a spot too. Had some nice games for the Buckos last year.
Based on the headline, i was certain this was going to be about Hayes and Cruz. Hoping for big things from those guys this season. And Nick Gonzales and Tucapita Marcano coming soon, too!
I’ve been super high on Keller the last handful of years, and I still believe in him. He looks better than ever and is averaging 97-98 in off-season workouts. Heck, he was topping out at 100.8 MPH and his previous fastball high was 98,3 MPH. For him, it was more of an attitude and confidence thing, but based on the video, he looks ready for next season, more than ever.
As for Wilson, I think he can be a solid starting pitcher. He was optioned 16 times by the Braves from 2018 up until he was traded. Never got a fair shot to prove himself in the majors yet, which is what they’re banking on. But if he can provide a 3.80-4.00-ish ERA and 160 innings, I’ll be perfectly fine with that. Doesn’t need to be the ace when guys like Roansy Contreras, Carmen Mlodzinski, and Quinn Priester could prove to be that in the next 1-2 seasons.
Can’t players be optioned as many times as possible in one season and it only burns one option year? So if a guy is optioned 16 times in 3 years that’s the same as a guy being optioned once a year for 3 years? I’m not trying to contradict you or anything. I’m just trying to wrap my head around it. I was surprised to see Wilson was already out of options multiple years before he even hits arbitration. Could he conceivably still be out of options even if he was never sent down more than once any single season?
Yes that is correct, but to be sent to the minors and then called back up again so many times in so few seasons means that he’s not getting consistent playing time, either in the majors or minors.
I’m hopeful for the future rotation but still a bit skeptical too. I’ve seen some of those Keller bullpen session videos too and they are impressive but velocity was never his issue, a lack of movement on his fastball always seemed like more of an issue to me. If he has good command of an upper 90’s heater that would certainly help offset how straight the pitch is but he still needs to get swinging strikes on his secondary pitches more consistently to put batters away.
Wilson’s raw stuff isn’t as eye popping as Keller’s but he has a decent arsenal and seems to know how to use it to be effective enough to keep you in a game through five innings. Nothing special per se but certainly valuable. Between Wilson, Crowe, Yajure and Keller I feel like the back end of the rotation has enough options to find a reliable combination of arms and I agree that the higher ceiling guys are on the way. My concern is that Contreras, Priester, Mlodzinski, Burrows, etc. can’t be expected to be an ace immediately upon arriving in the bigs. I had been targeting 2023 as the Pirates’ year to break through but I think 2024-2025 is more likely especially with the bats that will be coming up with the pitchers in Davis, Gonzales, Peguero, Smith-Njiba and a few others. Future is bright.
It seems for a lot of top end pitching prospects that the leap from AAA to the majors can be a lot harder than that for hitters. I might be wrong but it seems to me like a lot more highly regarded/highly drafted pitching prospects go bust than position players. It also seems like a lot more low drafted pitching prospects work out than hitters. Developing and accurately projecting pitchers must be a lot harder than developing and accurately projection hitters and position players.
Agreed, and more so than it used to be. Add in the fact that kids are throwing harder than ever at a young age, blowing out their arms and having Tommy John, and the process becomes even more dicey
You write of development and I can’t help but think that there are a lot young guys who throw but don’t exactly know how to pitch. Perhaps it’s just applicable to your comment. As they rise in terms of competition, this part of their game needs developed, too
1 Brubaker
2 Crowe
3 Peters
4 Thompson
5 Wilson
6 Yajure
All those guys look like mlb starters. Brubaker Peters and Thompson shown in small sample sizes they could be better than 5th starters. I like Yajure better in relief but still needs a look as a starter.
7 Keller
8 Kranick
Talented but haven’t preformed well. Keller has been throwing harder this winter. I hope one or both work out but can’t count on them as much as the previous 6. Can easily beat out the previous 6 though.
9 Quintana
I like him in relief but probably signed because they would give him a look as a starter. If he earns it then great. But he wasn’t signed to be a innings eater. He was signed as a likely reliever. Pirates have 9 other guys younger and cheaper to eat innings.
10 Contreras
The best of the bunch unless Keller emerges to his potential. Probably won’t make opening day roster though but ready when needed.
@GM
That’s an extremely optimistic view. Crowe, Brubaker, and Wilson all had ERA’s + FIP’s over 5 last year.
I’m not sure anyone of those 3 is a major league SP. Dillon peters had 6 positive starts after a very poor start to his career in MIA and LAA.
The pirates looks like they have a lot of guys who might be fringe end back end starters. Quintana doesn’t really have much upside at this point. I’d rather watch the young guys start but I don’t know that he wasn’t signed to potentially eat innings.
It was Crowe’s first full season. Can young players not improve? In all but 3 of his starts he gave up 4 runs or less, many 2 or 3 runs. A 7 and 8 run outing. Pirates needed inning eaters last year so a pitcher sometimes went even when the stuff wasn’t there. A weak bullpen didn’t help with era. And most importantly I don’t love the guy. I think he is reliever, long man, swingman, 5th starter at best. I hope he gets kicked out of the rotation by someone better.
Wilson I am only looking at as a Pirate. Change of scenery and steady starts. Wasn’t impressed. Just feel like he can pitch to a 5 era. Don’t see under 4.
Brubaker looked good in the spring and to me just seemed to run out of gas. Maybe 2020 hurt him. Maybe needs strength conditioning I don’t know. I feel like he is a under 4 era pitcher.
I like Peters. More than Wilson Crowe. Again I don’t care what he did in Miami and Anaheim. The smallest change can make a difference.
I hope Keller Kranick can knock Wilson Crowe out of the rotation. If not they are capable of going 5 innings and giving up less than 5 runs until Contreras comes up.
Crowe was never really a prospect.
27 years old. 2 HR/9 and 4.5 walks. Living in Baltimore—I’m pretty familiar w former Nats prospects. I think ultimately he’s a fringe middle reliever and not a starter at all.
Re: Peters
Ok—that’s fair if significant changes were made in Pitt. I didn’t see him start but we’re talking about 6 starts that spanned 26 innings. Skeptical but maybe they’ve figured something out. In LAA he always lacked a 3rd pitch. 29 years old also.
We’ve got nine #5-6 starters and one #4 (Contreras). Of course, several could improve enough to slide up into #3-4 types, but not likely any of the #1-2 caliber. As Mlb1225 pointed out, the future looks bright with Contreras, Mlodzinski and Priester. I actually have high hopes for Thompson, as well.
With how young and inexperienced the staff is Quintana was 100% signed to be a veteran presence and eat innings out the rotation and hope he does well enough the first half of the season to flip for some lottery ticket type prospects at the deadline. I think Peters would be better served moving to the pen out of the group. A step up in development from Brubaker in putting together a complete season would be huge because he does seem like he could be a reliable #3 type starter and solidify the whole staff but as it stands now the team has a collection of back of the rotation arms.
So you believe they will send Crowe Brubaker Kranick Keller Yajure to the minors, release Wilson, or move Thompson to the bullpen just so they can have a veteran presence innings eater who they may flip for a weak prospect even if they look like better starting options? Interesting.
When the hell has Crowe ever looked like a MLB starter other than maybe 1 start on MLB the Show??? They signed Quintana to eat innings, not be the 9th guy….Honestly, my dream GM is a lot smarter than this….
He was signed to be a reliever. He signed with the Pirates because they will give him a honest look as a starter and there is opportunity. If he is one of the 5 best he will start.
Dream- Thanks for the organized breakdown.It helps this old guy be organized.
I would start Brubaker,Thompson,Wilson,Keller,and Peters starting off.
I would use Crowe and Quintana in the bullpen until they are needed to start.
I would start Contreras and Yajure in AAA until they are needed in the majors,or by mid season assuming they are not injured and pitch well in AAA.
I am not sure that Kranick is not another Nick Kingham with an outstanding first start against the St Louis Cardinals.I saw absolutely nothing after that.I think it fair to him to keep him in AAA all year and see how he does.
I will say that this is decent depth for young pitchers although any aces will probably not be on the ML staff until after the all star game or next year.
Other than Q these are all young pitchers who deserve a consistent chance to see what they can do at the ML level.
Good seeing your post Dream.
Mitch Keller is not a non tender candidate for next season.
You’d simply move the guy to the pen if he stinks again in the rotation. He’s a former top prospect who might fail as a starter. He hasn’t even been given the relief opportunity that’s worked for so many.
This is probably their make/break opportunities as starting pitchers, at least in their current organizations. Whatever happens, each will have value as relievers moving forward. Those that develop second and third pitches along with mid 90’s fastballs can stick at the major league level.. Those that do not, find themselves playing twice a week in a beer league.
He’s looked like a deer in head lights the last 2 years. Hopefully he figures it out.
I’m taken aback at news of Keller’s speed numbers. Does it really matter when he misses so frequently dead red? Guess this goes for his off speed pitches too, as they often land right down main street?
The Gerritt Cole era here was similar in some sense in that the idea was that he could simply overpower everyone, but even his heat wasn’t ending up in the hitter’s zone. Nice that it took him moving on to Houston to learn how to pitch, complete with spin pitches and change ups
Keller was a real sneaky deep starter last year. I hope it works out, but you need the run support to back it up and he’s still got a few kinks in his own armor. Wilson is an interesting play. I’m not as high on him as the field, but he should be a solid addition for us. Thompson is the one I look forward to watching most this year. Sure Pittsburgh could have held out for a better prospect from the Marlins when the trade happened considering the pitching depth they had, but Thompson isn’t all that bad to begin with and he’s controllable for the long haul as well.
It’s a shame that that that ballpark, which might be the greatest baseball venue ever constructed, is being wasted by such a mismanaged franchise. Either they don’t spend, or they spend stupid. And it’s been that way for a while.
I like what Cherrington is doing, but while the Bucs don’t have the Orioles’ problems (namely, the Yanks/Jays/Sox and Rays), they have to compete with the Cards and Brewers Front Offices, and they’re as good as it gets (especially the Brewers). And the Cubs have a TON of money. So it’s difficult, but still doable.
And for heaven’s sake, throw the PNC folks out on their butts, and call the place Roberto Clemente Stadium. I can’t believe the other MLB owners won’t match the cost of the naming rights; it would be a real show of a commitment to diversity.
The Pirates as a small market do not spend,and do not spend stupidly.They paid their players plenty the three years that they had excellent teams.
They were mismanaged only in that their scouting and development teams were no better than mediocre,which is deadly for small market teams.
Not sure why they need to show a commitment to diversity,especially by renaming a stadium for a player,as great as he was.PNC I am sure is an important part of the income for the Pirates.Any old time Pirate fans remember Roberto well and very fondly,and do not need a stadium named after him to do so.
My point is that whatever PNC is paying them, I’m sure, for publicity reasons, MLB would love a stadium after Roberto.
Possibly,but in all honesty I think that MLB is basically composed of people who are after the money,both players and owners.You and I could wish for that,and Clemente would deserve it based on the way he died,let alone his great career,but both of us know that in this time and day it isn’t not going to happen.
In some ways it would be neat if every ML Park was named after the best player who played there although he never did of course in this one.
The problem w MLB naming PNC park after Clemente is that they’re making a commitment to pay an annuity. They’ll have to pay for that forever.
Sets up a precedent that they could do it for other teams as well……I’m sure they don’t want to open that can of worms for a little publicity. Pretty significant long term cost to that.
Pirates have a ton of “potential” back-end SP’s on a contender, Keller and Wilson being two of them. Contreras and Priester could be #2/3 type SP’s. If Pirates are going to have an Ace in the next few years, either one of these prospects will have to amp up their game, or Pirates will have to sign/trade for one. I don’t have faith Nutting will go down that road after the Archer debacle and his legendary cheapness.
Pirates need to create a PDS that can improve and develop their young arms or they’re never going to sustain anything more than a few playoff appearances of one and done’s.
Pitching wins WS’s, namely starting pitching, and small-market teams can’t buy #1 or even #2 starters needed to win a WS. Trading for them decimates the farm, so the only way to win as a SM team is with an elite pitching development system.
Even with an elite PDS it takes 2-3 years to develop quality starting pitchers once they reach the big-leagues. The Priester’s & Contreras’s won’t be developed at best until 2024-‘25 and that’s with a good PDS, which based on history, I don’t think they have, but maybe Cherrington has overhauled the pitching system.
Brubaker is my favorite of the starters I’ve seen. Keller needs better coaching/pitching lab/analytics and he’ll thrive, hopefully it’ll be with the Pirates.the rest of the starters I’ve seen are pedestrian at best.
I wish you were right about SP winning WS. I miss the days of watching SP’s going deep into games. Nowadays, having depth in the bullpen anchored by a top notch Closer and a strong hitting Club are both more important than good SP.
If you told me the Pirates rotation had one guy who could average 6 IP and be in top 25% of league in FIP, 3 others who averaged 5 IP and around league average, and 1 other who averaged 4 IP and around 75% of all SP’s in FIP, I’d say that’s a playoff caliber rotation with the right bullpen.
Hate to tell you all, Keller is the same guy he’s always been. 2MPH will do nothing. Come back in September, promise that’s the case.