Make Or Break Year: Alec Bohm
Players highlighted in the “Make Or Break” feature normally fall into one of a few familiar categories. Sometimes it’s a former star prospect running out of chances to prove they belong in the majors, or perhaps it’s an established star trying to bounce back after a down year or two, or maybe it’s a veteran trying to get their career on track after an extended injury absence.
Alec Bohm doesn’t exactly fit any of these models. In fact, one could argue Bohm has already been “made” in the sense that he was an All-Star in 2024, and is coming off four seasons as the Phillies’ top choice at third base (as well as a part-time first baseman), with 8.0 fWAR to show for his 560 games and 2352 plate appearances from 2022-25. He has an above-average 105 wRC+ at the plate over those four seasons, and Bohm’s third base glovework has improved from terrible to at least palatable, and even pretty good depending on the metric of choice.
This is the track record of a solid, Major League-caliber player, and it’s a resume that Bohm is rightfully proud of achieving. “You look at it in the grand scheme of things, out of all the players, a very small number that have ever played in the big leagues, there’s not a lot of them that get to arbitration,” Bohm recently told The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal. “Then the list gets even smaller of those who get to arbitration, get to free agency. Then the list gets even smaller when you talk about guys who get to 10 years and beyond.”
“When you kind of zoom out and look at it from a different perspective, I’ve done a lot of great things. I’ve had a pretty good career for myself, made it a lot further than a lot of people can say. I’m definitely proud of that, and want to keep building on it.”
Bohm’s issue, in some ways, is a matter of framing. Bohm can be described as a decent or okay player…or as “just a” decent or okay player. The Phillies haven’t really been hurt by having Bohm take a regular spot in their lineup, nor is he at fault for the team’s inability to get over the hump for a World Series championship. (Bohm’s .225/.327/.333 slash line over 150 postseason plate appearances isn’t good, but he is far from the only Philadelphia hitter to struggle in the playoffs.)
Because Bohm’s production has always evened out to roughly average, however, it creates the sense that the Phillies could do better at the hot corner. It also doesn’t help that Bohm’s perception that he was a top prospect and the third overall pick in the 2018 draft. Though Rosenthal notes that Bohm’s production has bettered a lot of other prominent names from that draft class, the infielder is (rightly or wrongly) a victim of the high expectations that come with being a top draft choice. In a sense, Bohm represents a larger issue clouding this otherwise successful run of Phillies baseball — the team hasn’t gotten much from its farm system, as the roster has been built most around free agents and trades.
Along these same lines, Bohm has been the subject of trade rumors for the better part of two years. Bohm’s 3.4 fWAR season in 2024 was the best of his career, as he had a 113 wRC+ from hitting .280/.332/.448 with 15 homers over 606 PA, and he also delivered +4 Outs Above Average as a third baseman. The down side of his career year was that Bohm slumped badly after the All-Star break, and the Phillies’ response to this breakout campaign was to shop Bohm to address other needs.
Such teams as the Athletics, Mariners, Royals, Angels, and White Sox were all linked to Bohm-related rumors in the 2024-25 offseason, with the idea being that the Phils would move Bohm and then sign one of Alex Bregman or Willy Adames to play third base. Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski was at least aiming high in shopping Bohm offers, and perhaps too high — reports indicated that George Kirby, Logan Gilbert, Mason Miller, and Garrett Crochet were some of the players the Phillies wanted in return for trade packages involving Bohm.
There weren’t as many public reports about Bohm’s market this offseason, maybe in part because Bohm’s production dropped to a 105 wRC+ (.287/.331/.409 with 11 homers over 464 PA) and he was limited to 120 games due to a left rib fracture and shoulder inflammation. Philadelphia was again looking to upgrade at third base, coming just short of signing Bo Bichette in a scenario that would’ve turned Bohm into an obvious trade chip for the remainder of the winter.
Going forward, top prospect Aidan Miller is expected to make his MLB debut at some point in 2026, and then step into an everyday role at either second or third base in 2027. This puts pressure on second baseman Bryson Stott for one, but it’s a more direct threat to Bohm since he is slated to become a free agent next offseason. As Rosenthal puts it, “at this point, perhaps even more than before, Bohm is playing for the other 29 teams.” There’s even a non-zero chance Bohm could be dealt in-season depending on how the Phillies feel about Miller’s ability to immediately contribute in the majors.
For his part, Bohm hasn’t been worried about the trade speculation or his impending free agency, saying he is just concerned about playing. “I don’t really take any of it personally, think too far into it. It’s all out of my control. I can’t do anything to prevent it….I don’t stew over it. It’s just part of the business side of it,” Bohm said.
A midseason trade would make Bohm ineligible for the qualifying offer, so that would remove any draft compensation from his free agent case. Assuming Bohm remains a Phillie throughout 2026, a qualifying offer could be a moot point anyway, as it would probably take a huge jump in production for Philadelphia to even consider issuing Bohm a QO. If Bohm delivers his usual type of season, there’s a decent chance he’d just accept the offer and take a big one-year payday (this year’s QO was worth $22.025MM) rather than deal with both the vagaries of his own market, plus the added uncertainty of how the inevitable lockout will interrupt the 2026-27 offseason. Adding a $22MM-ish salary to an already hefty payroll likely isn’t in the Phillies’ interest, when Miller could just take over at third base for a minimum salary.
Qualifying offer aside, Bohm is the type of mid-tier free agent we’ve seen get squeezed by the market in the past. Teams without much payroll room might feel they can more or less replicate Bohm’s production with a cheaper veteran or maybe two platoon options. Bigger-spending teams could take the Phillies’ approach and seek for more prominent names at third base, with Bohm then becoming a fallback option at most. Between the lockout and potential changes made in a new Collective Bargaining Agreement, teams may not be likely to make an early commitment to a mid-level player like Bohm until they know exactly how baseball’s business structure will change.
The easiest way for Bohm to change the narrative, of course, is to have a terrific 2026 season. He needs to hit better against right-handed pitching and keep more consistent over the course of a full year, and while this is naturally easier said that done, we’ve seen flashes of how good Bohm can be when he’s been in the midst of one of his hot streaks. Again, it isn’t as if Bohm is a bad player — his hard-hit ball rates are solid, and he is borderline excellent at making contact and avoiding strikeouts. Bumping his walk and barrel rates even up to average levels would make Bohm a more dangerous threat at the plate.
Bohm turns 30 in August, and he could benefit from a fairly thin class of free agent third basemen next winter. Teams have shown they’ll pay for star-level production or even star-level potential, but it’s a trickier free agent environment for players like Bohm who have a decently high floor but a seemingly limited ceiling. A two-year deal (maybe three years max) of roughly $10MM in average annual value seems plausible for the 2024 version of Bohm, so he’ll need to at least top those numbers to avoid fielding a slate of one-year, prove-it type of offers next winter.
Make Or Break Year: Nolan Gorman
The Cardinals have more firmly committed to a retool than they did last offseason. They treated last season primarily as an evaluation year but weren’t as aggressive in selling off veteran pieces as they’ve been this winter. Unfortunately, they didn’t see any development from former first-round picks and top prospects Jordan Walker and Nolan Gorman. They’re in a similar position now as they were 12 months ago, though the pressure is probably ramping up on both players.
MLBTR examined Walker’s situation as the ’25 season was nearing its end. He’ll enter camp as the everyday right fielder but needs to take a major step forward if he’s to project as a regular on the 2027 team. There might be even more urgency for Gorman, who is two years older than Walker and has more than 1500 major league plate appearances under his belt. He’ll turn 26 in May. If there’s a breakout season in the cards, it probably needs to be now.
The opportunity should be there. After more than a year of trade rumors, the Cards lined up the Nolan Arenado deal a couple weeks ago. Third base is open, at least in the short term. Top prospect JJ Wetherholt is on the doorstep of the majors and may even play his way onto the Opening Day roster. There’s a good chance the Cardinals trade Brendan Donovan within the next two months, though, which would open second base for Wetherholt. That’d leave Gorman competing with Thomas Saggese for playing time at the hot corner.
Saggese has a strong minor league track record, but his very aggressive approach probably leaves him in a utility role. Gorman has flashed a higher ceiling, yet it’s a couple seasons in the rearview. He hit 14 home runs in 89 games as a rookie, then slugged 27 longballs with a .236/.328/.478 slash line in year two. Gorman entered the 2024 season as a .232/.317/.454 hitter with 41 homers in his first season and a half as a big leaguer.
There was a significant amount of swing-and-miss, but Gorman’s power was enough to fit in the middle third of a lineup. That hasn’t been the case over the past two seasons. Gorman has taken roughly 800 trips to the plate in that time. His batting average and on-base percentage have dropped by 30 points each, while his slugging mark has fallen by more than 50 points. Gorman carries a .204/.284/.385 slash going back to the beginning of 2024.
His general profile is much the same as it was early in his career. The lefty hitter has a reasonably patient approach and works a decent number of walks, but his pure bat-to-ball ability is subpar. That’s probably not going to change as he gets into his late 20s. He needs to do damage when he does make contact. A combined 33 homers over his past 218 games isn’t enough.
Gorman battled a couple injuries last year. He missed time early in the season with a hamstring strain and was sidelined by lower back pain around the All-Star Break. The actual injured list stint was minimal, but it’s possible he was playing at less than full strength for the final two months. He finished the season with a .187/.278/.323 line while striking out at a near-40% rate in 45 games after returning from the IL stint. Gorman has battled intermittent back discomfort for a few seasons.
Whatever the cause, Gorman’s bat speed has gone slightly in the wrong direction. He’s still pulling a lot of balls to right field, which is where he’s most likely to hit for power, but it’s not with the same authority as he did in 2023. He also dramatically scaled back how often he swings at the first pitch and hunts pitches in the heart of the plate. That earned him a few more walks than he took the year before, but it’s not ideal for putting him in positions to drive the ball.
Gorman has between three and four years of service time. He’s playing on a $2.655MM arbitration salary. He still has a couple minor league option years remaining, so he’s not on the roster bubble right now. A third straight replacement level performance would make him a likely non-tender next offseason, however.
Image courtesy of Jeff Curry, Imagn Images.
Make Or Break Year: Tyler O’Neill
At this time two years ago, Tyler O’Neill was viewed as a future cornerstone of the Cardinals outfield. O’Neill had shown flashes of his top-100 prospect potential over his first three MLB seasons, but it seemingly all came together for the Canadian in his age-26 season, when he hit .286/.352/.560 with 34 homers over 537 plate appearances and delivered Gold Glove-winning defense in left field. This all-around performance translated to a 5.5 fWAR that topped by only 13 players in the sport, and O’Neill finished eighth in NL MVP voting.
Unsurprisingly, O’Neill and the Cardinals had some talks about a multi-year contract extension during the 2021-22 offseason, though it wasn’t known if the two sides floated a deal to cover just O’Neill’s arbitration years or beyond. (The Cards subsequently won an arb hearing against O’Neill that resulted in a $3.4MM salary for the outfielder in 2022, rather than his desired $4.15MM figure.) Given how the next two seasons played out for O’Neill, St. Louis might have caught a break by not agreeing to a long-term deal, though it’s safe to say that neither side was particularly satisfied with the outfielder’s results during the 2022-23 seasons.
O’Neill has hit only .229/.310/.397 with 23 home runs over 649 PA since Opening Day 2022, good for a slightly below-average 98 wRC+. The key statistic there might be the plate appearances, or lack thereof — O’Neill played in just 168 of a possible 324 games due to several injuries. A hip impingement and a hamstring strain limited him to 96 games in 2022, and then a lower back sprain and a foot sprain led to more injured list time in 2023 and only 72 appearances.
Injuries also hampered O’Neill prior to 2021, thus making him a tricky player to properly evaluate. Does that career year serve as an example of what O’Neill can do if he can ever stay healthy, or was even that giant 2021 campaign perhaps something of an outlier even beyond O’Neill’s lack of time on the IL? A hefty .366 BABIP puts something of an asterisk on O’Neill’s 2021 numbers, even allowing for the fact that his speed and baserunning ability helped him naturally turn a few extra grounders into base hits. His walk rate was also well below the league average in 2021, though curiously, O’Neill posted much more solid walk numbers in 2022-23, as well as the 2020 season.
The number that has stayed consistent, unfortunately for O’Neill, is his strikeout rate. Since making his MLB debut in 2018, O’Neill’s 30% strikeout rate ranks seventh among all batters with at least 1600 PA. While his K% has gotten better in each of the last two seasons, all of this swing-and-miss in O’Neill’s approach has curbed his effectiveness at the plate and made him something of a one-dimensional hitter.
It probably also hasn’t helped that O’Neill spent much of the 2023 season hearing his name in trade rumors. Between the Cardinals’ outfield depth and his down year in 2022, O’Neill suddenly seemed to become expendable, even if St. Louis was naturally still putting a significant asking price on his services. It isn’t known what offers the Cards might’ve received for O’Neill at the time or what trades might have been floated or seriously discussed, yet in 20-20 hindsight, St. Louis might’ve been better served in moving O’Neill while his trade value was a little higher.
The outfielder’s rough 2023 season only diminished that value, and the year got off to an immediate awkward start when O’Neill was benched for a game for what manager Oliver Marmol felt was a lack of baserunning effort the previous night. That situation seemed like a harbinger for the end of O’Neill’s time with the organization, yet he Cardinals ended up retaining O’Neill at the trade deadline even through the struggling club made some other sell-off moves.
A trade didn’t materialize until December, when the Red Sox landed O’Neill for pitching prospects Nick Robertson and Victor Santos. Baseball America ranks Robertson as the 25th-best prospect in the St. Louis farm system and he made his MLB debut in 2023 with the Dodgers, yet the trade return has to be considered a bit of a disappointment for the Cards considering what the return might have been for O’Neill even last offseason. From Boston’s perspective, of course, the deal could be seen as an intriguing buy-low situation. The Royals and (O’Neill’s former team) Mariners were two of the other teams publicly linked to O’Neill’s trade market, and it’s safe to assume that several other teams checked in with the St. Louis front office.
Health is obviously the biggest x-factor for O’Neill going forward, yet Fenway Park is a pretty nice landing spot for a player looking to regain his hitting stroke. It’s easy to imagine O’Neill suddenly launching a few homers over the Green Monster, though that same wall will also provide an interesting challenge to O’Neill in his regular role as the new Sox left fielder. After winning Gold Gloves in both 2020 and 2021, O’Neill’s defensive numbers were much closer to average over the last two seasons, so he’ll also be looking for a rebound in the field as well as at the plate.
O’Neill turns 29 in June, and he’ll be a free agent following the 2024 season. He’ll have all the opportunity in the world with a Red Sox team that seems to be something in a state of flux between partially rebuilding and trying to legitimately contend, and it can be argued that buying low on a recent MVP candidate can be slotted into either direction. Another year of struggles could limit O’Neill’s ceiling to platoon roles and one-year deals going forward, yet if he can avoid the IL and show anything close to his 2021 season offensively or defensively, a nice multi-year contract could be in offing next winter.
Make Or Break Year: Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
The Diamondbacks and Blue Jays combined on one of the winter’s biggest trades back in December, though for all of the attention the deal received, much more focus was (understandably) placed on the involvement of Daulton Varsho and Gabriel Moreno than on the fact that Lourdes Gurriel Jr. was now headed to Arizona. Varsho is a very promising young player and already an ace defender, while Moreno is arguably baseball’s best prospect — with all these future potential in mind, it isn’t necessarily surprising that Gurriel was something of an afterthought.
It wasn’t that long ago that Gurriel was himself a sought-after young talent, when he defected from Cuba in 2016 and signed a seven-year, $22MM deal with Toronto later that year. He made his MLB debut in April 2018 at age 24 and has since carved out a solid career for himself over five seasons in the Show, yet in some ways, Gurriel has been hampered by those initial high expectations. Though Gurriel has been much better than many prospects (both international and from the domestic draft) over the years who carried a lot more hype, having “only” a solid career to date has perhaps been a little underwhelming considering how good Gurriel has looked when he has been in top form.
Gurriel’s .285/.329/.468 slash line and 68 homers over 1864 career MLB plate appearances translates to a 115 wRC+, well above the league average. He has consistently delivered good (and in 2020, elite) hard-hit ball rates, and his barrel rates were similarly pretty consistent before plummeting downwards in 2022. While Gurriel doesn’t walk much, his strikeout and whiff rates have steadily improved over the last four seasons, with Gurriel topping out in the 78th percentile of all hitters in K% and in the 71st percentile in whiff rate last year.
With all this in mind, however, Gurriel has amassed only 6.2 fWAR over his 468 big league games. For comparison’s sake, Varsho has 7.1 fWAR over 283 games and 1022 PA, with 4.6 fWAR coming in the 2022 season alone. Defense accounts for much of Varsho’s advantage, as Gurriel has been roughly an average left fielder since the start of the 2019 season, when factoring in all of the public defensive metrics. Defensive Runs Saved (+4) likes Gurriel’s outfield work, while UZR/150 (-2.7) and especially Outs Above Average (-16) have been a lot less impressed. It is worth noting, however, that Gurriel was a finalist for the AL left field Gold Glove in both 2020 and 2021, somewhat in defiance of the mixed reviews from the metrics.
Glovework has been an element of Gurriel’s big league career from the start, as the Blue Jays initially hoped he could be a shortstop prospect or at least a second baseman, but he struggled badly as an infielder. Fortunately for both Gurriel and the Jays, a position change to left field allowed him to settle in both as a defender and at the plate, even if it limited Gurriel’s overall value in the long term. As he heads into his age-29 season, Gurriel has only moderate defensive utility as a passable left fielder and as a part-time first baseman, though his solid arm strength suggests that he might be an option in right field (a position he has never played in the majors).
Looking at Gurriel’s batting statistics, his good overall numbers smooth over a lot of streakiness at the plate. The outfielder is prone to extreme hot and cold stretches, with injuries sometimes factoring into that variance. Just in 2022, Gurriel had a .601 OPS over his first 154 plate appearances, then posted a .901 OPS in his next 241 PA, then slumped to a .554 OPS in his final 98 PA prior to a hamstring injury that prematurely ended his season in early September.
While that roller-coaster of a season evened out to 114 wRC+ in 493 PA, Gurriel’s sudden lack of power was a concern, as his .108 Isolated Power total was far below the .209 ISO he had previously posted during his career. Again, injuries might have been a reason, as Gurriel dealt with a wrist problem during the season that eventually required surgery in October, and he is expected to be ready for his first Spring Training with the D’Backs.
It all adds up to a career that has been both inconsistent, yet somewhat predictably inconsistent at the same time. The Diamondbacks have a reasonable expectation of what a healthy Gurriel can deliver as a floor, with hopes that his ceiling might reach higher in a new environment. Gurriel could also benefit to some extent if the D’Backs use their left-handed hitting outfielders (i.e. Alek Thomas, Jake McCarthy, Dominic Fletcher) to provide some shield against right-handed pitching, though Gurriel’s career splits are pretty even.
2023 is the final season of Gurriel’s initial seven-year contract, and a clause in the deal makes him automatically eligible for free agency next winter even though Gurriel will be short of six years of MLB service time. The outfielder will be 30 on Opening Day 2024, so he can still offer some prime years to an interesting team on the open market, but much will be determined by how Gurriel performs this season in Arizona.
Some Toronto fans were surprised that the Blue Jays had to include both Moreno and Gurriel to pry Varsho away from the D’Backs, yet that could reflect what relatively modest trade value Gurriel had around the league, even for a player owed only $5.4MM in 2023. Even from the Diamondbacks’ perspective, while Gurriel’s inclusion was a factor in finally getting the trade over the finish line, the still-existing outfield surplus within the organization means that Arizona probably sees Gurriel as a one-year rental. If the D’Backs are again out of contention by the trade deadline, Gurriel might be a prime candidate to be shipped elsewhere.
If Gurriel matches only his 2021-22 numbers, a two-year free agent deal might be his max, and a lot of teams might not be willing to go beyond one guaranteed year. As we’ve seen this offseason, teams are willing to pay big for superstars, or pay big (either in free agent dollars or in trade return) for younger players with potential to break out. Clubs are less willing to open their wallets for “just” solid production, thus leaving Gurriel in danger of being squeezed in the market unless he has a quality platform season.
Gurriel could point to older brother Yuli as an example of how later-career production runs in the family. However, the younger Gurriel will likely need to stay healthy and (perhaps significantly) out-perform his past Toronto production in order to really capitalize on his upcoming trip to the open market.
Make Or Break Year: Jack Flaherty
Jack Flaherty posted a 3.01 ERA, 29.8% strikeout rate, and 8.2% walk rate over 347 1/3 innings during the 2018-19 seasons, finishing fifth in NL Rookie Of The Year voting in 2018 and then fourth in Cy Young Award voting in 2019. After coming up through the Cardinals’ farm system as a top-100 ranked prospect, it certainly looked like Flaherty was living up to that potential, and establishing himself as a frontline pitcher in St. Louis heading into the next decade.
Since then, however, things haven’t gone nearly as smoothly. He was one of several Cardinals sidelined by a COVID-19 outbreak in 2020, missing four weeks of an already shortened season and finishing with a 4.91 ERA over 40 1/3 innings. Unfortunately, abbreviated seasons became the trend for Flaherty, as he has tossed only 114 1/3 innings over 26 games since the start of the 2021 campaign.
An oblique strain and a shoulder strain limited Flaherty to 78 1/3 frames in 2021, and the shoulder problems carried over into 2022 when Flaherty needed a PRP injection to deal with bursitis during Spring Training. The recovery time and prerequisite ramp-up time delayed Flaherty’s season debut until June, but another shoulder strain just a couple of weeks later resulted in another visit to the 60-day injured list. He was able to return for five starts and a relief appearance in September/October, but Flaherty banked only 36 total innings last season.
Adding to Flaherty’s frustration is the fact that he has been pretty effective when on the mound, particularly prior to his oblique strain in 2021. The righty had a 3.54 ERA/4.26 SIERA over those 114 1/3 innings in the last two seasons, despite the mostly stop-and-start nature of his appearances. One can only imagine how well Flaherty might have been able to pitch had he been healthy, and how an in-form version of Flaherty might’ve helped the Cardinals (winless in three postseason games in those seasons) make more of an impact in the playoffs.
Considering the small sample sizes involved, it’s hard to extrapolate much from Flaherty’s lackluster Statcast metrics in the last two years, though he at least still had above-average strikeout and walk rates in 2021. Put simply, Flaherty’s most important statistic in 2023 will be innings pitched, since good health is his only path back to true front-of-the-rotation status, or even just being a consistent member of a big league rotation.
Now entering his third and final year of salary arbitration, Flaherty’s setbacks had a significant impact on his earning potential. He won an arb hearing over the Cardinals to earn a $3.9MM salary in 2021, and then avoided arbitration by agreeing to a $5MM salary last season. With so few innings to build on in 2022, Flaherty is projected to earn only a minimal raise up to $5.1MM for the coming season.
On the plus side, just one healthy and effective season can still line Flaherty up for a hefty contract in free agency next winter. Flaherty doesn’t even turn 28 until October, so there are several prime seasons still theoretically available for any team interested in paying a premium. In this scenario, Flaherty’s agents at CAA Sports might even seek a multi-year with an early opt-out clause, which would allow Flaherty to re-enter the market prior to his age-30 or age-31 season.
But, first things first — Flaherty has to avoid any more lengthy trips to the IL. Rotation-mate Steven Matz is in the same boat after an injury-marred 2022 season, and Matz and Flaherty are projected to pitch at the back end of a St. Louis rotation that also includes Miles Mikolas, Adam Wainwright, and Jordan Montgomery. Such pitchers as Dakota Hudson, Matthew Liberatore, Jake Woodford, and Zack Thompson are also on hand for depth, and while the Cardinals are certainly prioritizing winning over auditioning younger pitchers, the team may feel some pressure to see what they have in their controllable arms. Matz is the only member of the projected starting five who is under contract beyond 2023, as Flaherty, Montgomery, Wainwright (who might retire), and Mikolas are all free agents.
With this many rotation holes to address, it seems probable that the Cardinals will broach an extension with at least one pitcher this spring, yet Flaherty is probably the least likely to work out a long-term deal. Based on his lack of innings or real results in the last two seasons, Flaherty probably doesn’t want to risk undercutting his earning potential in advance of what he naturally hopes will be a rebound season, and the Cards likewise might not want to make a big investment in a pitcher who has been such an injury magnet for two years running.
It sets the stage for an intriguing season for the 27-year-old righty, as Flaherty might be heading into his final year in St. Louis regardless of how well he pitches. Either another injury-plagued year leads the Cardinals to move on, or Flaherty might himself depart for a big free agent contract on the heels of a successful bounce-back campaign.
2022 Should Be A Key Season For Pair Of Pirates’ Former Top Prospects
Amidst another rebuilding year, the Pirates have ample uncertainty in the starting rotation. Free agent signee José Quintana is going to get one spot, with the Bucs hoping he performs well enough to be flipped midseason for younger talent. JT Brubaker had solid enough strikeout and walk numbers over 24 starts last year to get another opportunity, while Zach Thompson — acquired from the Marlins in the Jacob Stallings deal — is likely to be in the mix.
Among those likely under consideration for spots at the back of the rotation are two former top prospects: right-handers Mitch Keller and Bryse Wilson. Both pitchers are in their mid-20s, and they were each among Baseball America’s top 100 overall farmhands as recently as three years ago. At the peak of their prospect status, both pitchers were viewed as potential long-term members of a starting rotation. Yet neither has yet established himself as such, and one could argue that 2022 will function as a make-or-break sort of season for both.
Keller has been a familiar name for Pirates fans for some time. A second-round pick out of high school in 2014, he emerged as one of the sport’s most promising pitching prospects after a dominating showing in Low-A in 2016. Entering the 2017 campaign, BA considered him the game’s #22 overall farmhand. He’d remain among the top 60 prospects in each of the following three seasons, pairing a mid-90s fastball with a plus curveball that led many to project him as a future mid-rotation arm.
The Iowa native made his big league debut in 2019. While he allowed a 7.13 ERA over his first 48 MLB innings, Keller was plagued by an astounding .475 batting average on balls in play. His 28.6% strikeout rate, 7% walk percentage and 11.8% swinging strike rate all looked like indicators he could indeed be a mid-rotation or better arm in the making. Keller was limited to just five starts in the shortened 2020 campaign, ironically posting a very good ERA (2.91) but dreadful peripherals. Still, as he entered his age-25 season last year, Keller looked to be a key piece of the Bucs’ long-term plans.
That’s perhaps more of a question now, though. He started 23 games and worked 100 2/3 innings, but he managed just a 6.17 ERA. As with 2019, some horrible ball in play results (.388 opponents’ BABIP) played a role in his struggles keeping runs off the board. But Keller’s fielding-independent numbers weren’t nearly as impressive last year as they’d been during his debut campaign. His 19.6% strikeout rate and 10.4% walk percentage were each a few points worse than the respective league averages. Among the 129 hurlers with 100+ frames, Keller placed 121st in swinging strikes (8.2%).
Keller’s fastball velocity has ticked down a bit since his prospect peak, but a 93.9 MPH average fastball is still more than sufficient. Arguably more concerning is that none of his offspeed pitches was particularly effective. Only his slider was in the realm of average in terms of generating whiffs, and each of his slider, curve and changeup were hit hard. Finding a consistently reliable secondary pitch figures to be a focus for Keller and pitching coach Oscar Marin. If he doesn’t show promise in that regard, the front office could be faced with a tough decision. Keller’s on track to reach arbitration eligibility next offseason, and he could be a non-tender candidate if he posts another season like his 2021 campaign.
The urgency might be even greater for Wilson. While he’s not set to reach arbitration until after the 2023 season (unless the union succeeds in its efforts to expand eligibility for players in the 2-3 year service bucket during CBA talks), Wilson is facing roster pressure of a different sort. He’s out of minor league option years, meaning the Pirates would need to make him available to the rest of the league if they decide to bump him off the active roster.
An overslot fourth-round selection out of high school by the Braves in 2016, Wilson posted absurd numbers in the low minors over his first two years in pro ball. By 2018, the North Carolina native was traversing four levels. He began that season in High-A but pitched his way to the majors by August. Wilson only made three MLB appearances down the stretch, but that he was in the big leagues by age 20 was itself a remarkable accomplishment.
Wilson headed into 2019 as a consensus top 100 prospect, albeit at the back half of most lists. While he wasn’t viewed as a future top-of-the-rotation arm, most expected Wilson could cement himself within the Atlanta rotation in short order. He spent the bulk of 2019 in Triple-A, though, and he was shuttled between MLB and the alternate training site throughout 2020. Wilson started only six big league games between those two years.
Last year, Wilson got his first extended MLB opportunity. He made eight starts apiece with the Braves and Pirates, who acquired him at the trade deadline as part of the Richard Rodríguez swap. Unfortunately, he didn’t find much success at either stop. Between the two clubs, he combined for a 5.35 ERA across 74 innings.
Wilson showed strong control (6.8% walk rate) but struggled with home runs and only fanned 14.3% of opponents on a meager 8.7% swinging strike rate. Wilson, like Keller, suffered from an inability to find a reliable swing-and-miss secondary pitch. He used his fastball nearly as much as any starter around the league, likely playing a part in both his lack of whiffs and home run issues.
For both Keller and Wilson, the 2022 campaign looks likely to be a key developmental season. Wilson will need to pitch well enough to stick on the active roster; Keller can be sent back to the minors, but he’s likely to be in his final pre-arbitration year. As they rebuild, the Pirates can afford to give the former top prospects another opportunity. Yet if Keller and/or Wilson are to establish themselves as rotation cogs, as many anticipated they would a few years ago, they’ll have to find more success against big league hitters than they have in recent seasons.
Make Or Break Year: Victor Robles
Emerging as an everyday player in 2019, Victor Robles hit .255/.326/.419 with 17 homers over 617 plate appearances for the Nationals — below-average (92 wRC+, 91 OPS+) by a league-wide standard but quite respectable for a player in his age-22 season. Robles also stole 28 bases in 37 chances, and was exceptional over 1199 innings in center field, posting +23 Defensive Runs Saved, +22 Outs Above Average, and +6.1 UZR/150.
Since Robles was a key figure in the Nats’ World Series triumph, his place in Washington baseball history is in some ways already secured. However, with two lackluster seasons since that seeming breakout year, the jury is still out on whether or not Robles is still a cornerstone piece for the Nationals in the future.
In a sense, the Nationals’ larger struggles give Robles some extra leeway. After consecutive last-place finishes and a trade deadline fire sale of many of their veterans, it isn’t yet clear if the Nationals are planning to return to contention in 2022, or if the club will take another year to reload. Washington didn’t do much in the way of big transactions pre-lockout, and much of the team’s winter focus has been on making new staffing hires on the coaching and player development fronts throughout the organization.
Even if 2022 is more of an evaluation year in the District, there’s still natural pressure on Robles to perform. His lack of production in 2020-21 meant that he is projected for a modest $1.7MM in 2022, his first season of arbitration eligibility. If Robles again doesn’t hit next year but continues to play good defense, the Nationals probably wouldn’t be moved to non-tender him since he’d still have a pretty inexpensive price tag, even for a fourth outfielder type. (Caveat: it is possible the arbitration process could be altered in the next Collective Bargaining Agreement.)
Becoming “only” a fourth outfielder would have to count as a bit of a disappointment for a player with Robles’ prospect pedigree. It wasn’t long ago that Robles was a consensus pick as one of baseball’s best minor leaguers, as scouts and evaluators thought even more highly of Robles than they did Juan Soto when the two were coming up in Washington’s farm system.
However, the hitting potential that Robles displayed in the minors and in the 2018-19 seasons seemed to vanish over the last two big league seasons. Since the start of the 2020 campaign, Robles has hit .209/.304/.302 with five homers over 558 PA, translating to a measly 67 wRC+ and 68 OPS+. The biggest issue has been a lack of hard contact, as Robles has some of the worst hard-hit ball numbers of any player in baseball over the last three seasons. Robles also has a lot of swing-and-miss in his game, though his walk rate did improve to a slightly above-average 8.9% in 2021.
Even beyond the struggles at the plate, Robles has 12 steals in 21 chances in 2020-21, and he was a below-average runner in general according to Fangraphs’ baserunning metric. Even the glovework has been in decline, as over his last 1215 innings in center field, Robles has a -4 DRS, and -3.3 UZR/150, though his OAA total is still +3.
Robles’ decision to add 15 pounds in the 2019-20 offseason may have contributed to all of these problems, as his attempt to help boost his power had a deleterious effect on basically every aspect of his game. Robles cut that weight prior to last year’s Spring Training, yet the difficulties continued over the 2021 season. The Nationals even took the step of demoting Robles to Triple-A for the final month of the season, though since Robles did post a .936 OPS over his 93 PA with Rochester, there is hope that his return trip to the minors might have helped him regain some confidence.
Heading into 2022, Robles still ostensibly Washington’s top option in center field, though Lane Thomas now looms as a possible replacement. Acquired from the Cardinals in the Jon Lester trade, Thomas broke out to hit .270/.364/.489 over 206 PA with the Nats, and positioned himself for an everyday role in the D.C. outfield. Thomas is likely a better defensive fit as a left fielder than as a center fielder, but he is at least good enough up the middle to take over the position if Robles is unable to get on track.
Andrew Stevenson, Yadiel Hernandez and minor league signing Rusney Castillo are also in the mix to vie for outfield playing time, plus Robles’ immediate future may also be impacted by whatever the Nationals have planned for their post-lockout moves. Even if the Nats aren’t planning to contend, that doesn’t mean they might not add a veteran or two on one-year contracts, with an eye towards potentially flipping those veterans at the trade deadline.
It also worth stressing that Robles doesn’t even turn 25 years old until May, so it’s possible his prime years may still be well ahead of him. If the Nationals’ step back meant they didn’t have to a tough decision on Robles this winter, however, that decision may get a little tougher if Robles still hasn’t shown any improvement during the 2022 season. If Robles can at least approach his 2019 form, that will provide at least one answer for the Nationals within this period of uncertainty for the franchise.
Make Or Break Year: Michael Pineda
MLBTR is rebooting its “make or break year” series, in which we analyze players who enter the season with up-and-down track records but also an opportunity to stake a claim to significant future earnings.
It’s easy to pick pending free agents as “make or break” candidates, so this isn’t a particularly inventive choice. But few players have more boom or bust earning potential than Michael Pineda, the talented 28-year-old Yankees hurler.
Pineda’s recent track record is susceptible of supporting multiple narratives. By one, it’s something of a surprise that the Yanks tendered him a contract and paid him a fairly healthy $7.4MM salary in his final year of arb eligibility. After all, he carries a disappointing 4.60 ERA over his 336 1/3 innings in the past two seasons. That’s far shy of what the club hoped for, no doubt; a pitcher’s essential job, after all, is to keep runs off the board.
There’s another view, of course. For one thing, Pineda finally turned in 32 starts for the first time as a big leaguer in 2016. Given the serious shoulder problems he has dealt with, that’s both notable and quite valuable in and of itself. He also finally restored all of his lost fastball velocity, working at 94 mph for the first time sine his rookie year. Pineda also managed a career-best 14.1% swinging-strike rate and 10.6 K/9 strikeout rate, placing him in elite company (see here and here). His walks were up a smidge (2.7 BB/9) over his prior two years, when he showed top-level control, but that’s hardly a problem. And Pineda continues to generate grounders at a slightly above-average rate.
All of those measures suggest that Pineda is among the game’s most dominant starters. The issues largely lie in the batted ball results and sequencing. For one thing, he allows too many gopher balls. Last year, he coughed up 1.38 per nine while allowing dingers on 17.0% of the fly balls hit against him — well over the league average. And Pineda has surrendered successive .332 and .339 batting averages on balls in play while posting below-average 68.6% and 70.7% strand rates.
There’s probably some poor fortune mixed in there — Pineda’s contact profile (32.7% hard, 17.2% soft) last year landed in range of the league average. But there’s more than just bad luck at play here. Other measures of contact management paint a less optimistic picture. Why? Pineda’s slider is his money pitch. While his change is mostly just a serviceable option, it at least provides another look to lefties. Indeed, the platoon advantage isn’t the issue; while lefties reached base a bit more often against Pineda, due mostly to drawing more walks, hitters from both sides slugged the same (.460 for lefties, .463 for righties).
The bigger problem, it seems, is Pineda’s other pitch: the fastball. He works off of his four-seamer, throwing it 45% of the time. Opposing hitters hammered that offering, resulting in a -20.6 pitch value that more than offset the fantastic results (15.7 pitch value) Pineda generated with his top-notch slider. Nicolas Stellini of Fangraphs took a close look at this issue recently, arguing that the lack of a truly viable third pitch combined with a propensity for grooving the fastball to produce the problems. To be fair, it’s possible to groove a heater with good results — reigning NL Cy Young winner Max Scherzer has a top-shelf four-seamer that he “grooves” quite a bit, though his has quite a lot of horizontal movement and is surrounded by a much more developed set of offerings.
I certainly won’t pretend to know whether that’s simply a permanent limitation for Pineda; indeed, plenty of high-octane fastball-slider hurlers simply end up being relegated to bullpen duty. Lots of tweaks can be imagined. Improving his fastball and/or change are obviously possible, theoretically, if perhaps unlikely at this stage. Further developing alternative fastball versions (two-seamer, cutter) might vary the look. Playing with vertical location could have an impact. Whatever the fix, it’ll need to stick for Pineda to show he’s capable of sticking as a starter.
As things stand, there’s a high degree of variance to Pineda’s future. He’ll play the 2018 season at just 29 years of age, so there are prime seasons to sell in free agency. But will he be marketing those as a top-flight young starter? (With a qualifying offer attached?) As a one-year bounceback candidate? Or perhaps as a versatile, late-inning reliever who’s capable of throwing multiple frames. That last possibility surely is an intriguing one. Pineda’s power arsenal and ability to limit walks compare rather favorably with converted starters such as Andrew Miller, who pared back his starter’s arsenal to a four-seamer/slider mix that has obviously played up in the pen.
Of course, even in the current market, the relief ace profile doesn’t pay quite as well as that of a quality #2 or #3 starter. And it remains to be seen whether Pineda will have a chance — or will be forced — to showcase himself in such a role in 2017. All in all, there’s plenty riding on the season to come.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Make-Or-Break Year: Shelby Miller
MLBTR is rebooting its “make or break year” series, in which we analyze players who enter the season with up-and-down track records but also an opportunity to stake a claim to significant future earnings.
Relative to expectations, few major leaguers are coming off poorer seasons than Diamondbacks right-hander Shelby Miller, whose first year in Arizona couldn’t have gone much worse. Miller had been a quality starter with the Cardinals and Braves over the three prior seasons, but the Diamondbacks’ decision to send a haul to Atlanta for him in December 2015 was universally panned from the get-go.
Clearly regarding Miller as an ace, the D-backs’ front office parted with two well-regarded prospects, shortstop Dansby Swanson (the No. 1 pick in the 2015 draft) and righty Aaron Blair, as well as highly valuable center fielder Ender Inciarte to land him. That choice ultimately helped cost Diamondbacks general manager Dave Stewart and senior vice president of baseball operations De Jon Watson their jobs this past offseason, which came on the heels of dreadful performances from Miller and the 69-win team the executives helped build.
In a year that included a stint on the disabled list, a midsummer demotion to Triple-A and nearly another trade, Miller posted career worsts in ERA (6.15), K/9 (6.24), BB/9 (3.74) and swinging-strike percentage (7.0) across 101 innings. On Atlanta’s end, Blair endured an even worse 70 frames in his first taste of big league action, but Swanson impressed in his 145-plate appearance debut and figures to serve as their long-term answer at short. The defensively adept Inciarte, meanwhile, played well enough to land a lucrative contract extension.
While the trade is never going to turn into a positive for the Arizona organization, it’s possible Miller will revert to being a valuable contributor. He’s still only 26, after all, and not far removed from the aforementioned 2013-15 stretch that saw him register a terrific 3.27 ERA over 561 2/3 innings, albeit with so-so strikeout and walk rates (7.48 and 3.25 per nine) and a below-average ground-ball percentage (42.3). He’ll also have help from behind the plate, with new GM Mike Hazen having ditched a poor pitch-framing catcher (Welington Castillo) in favor of a good one (Jeff Mathis) during the offseason. Moreover, Hazen added ex-major league hurlers Dan Haren and Burke Badenhop (a former MLBTR contributor) to the front office, and those two will attempt to aid Miller and the team’s other pitchers in their new roles.
Miller revealed last month that attempting to live up to the trade hindered him last season, and he told FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal that he’s trying to “almost go back to being a Little Leaguer and have fun.” It’s only spring, granted, but it appears that approach is working. In his most recent outing on Thursday, Miller hit 99 mph on the radar gun and shut down the Cubs over three innings of one-hit ball, per Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic.
Diamondbacks pitching coach Mike Butcher then raved about Miller to Piecoro on Sunday, saying (via Twitter): “Mentally, he’s in a great place. He’s where he needs to be. He just looks really, really good right now. And he’s confident. He’s on a mission, man.”
Whether Miller’s encouraging spring carries over into the regular season will obviously affect his earning power for years to come. Thanks to his minor league demotion last season, Miller didn’t accrue a year of big league service time, meaning he could be under Arizona’s control through the 2019 campaign. Miller will earn $4.7MM this year after the Diamondbacks defeated him in arbitration during the offseason, and he’ll be a prime non-tender candidate next winter if he fails to rebound in 2017. On the other hand, flashing something resembling the form he showed prior to 2016 would net Miller a raise in arbitration or even a contract extension. It’s fair to say, then, that Miller’s in for a make-or-break year.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Make Or Break Year: Billy Hamilton
MLBTR is rebooting its “make or break year” series, in which we analyze players who enter the season with up-and-down track records but also an opportunity to stake a claim to significant future earnings.
Reds center fielder Billy Hamilton remains one of the game’s most fascinating players, due in large part to his eye-popping ability to create runs through his unmatched daring on the bases. Hamilton’s top-of-the-charts speed — which he ably deploys to circle the bags and track down fly balls with the best of them — gives him a sturdy floor and makes him an easy bet to contribute in the big leagues for a full career.
The question remains, though, whether Hamilton ought to be trotted out on an everyday basis given his weaknesses with the bat in hand. There’s an argument to be made that he’s good enough on the bases and in the field that he really doesn’t need to hit much at all to warrant a steady job. Over the past three seasons, Hamilton has paced baseball by a laughable margin in total baserunning value and ranks third in the game in UZR-based defensive contributions. And this isn’t just some sabermetric argument; teams have long valued outstanding up-the-middle defenders who couldn’t hit a lick. (To take but one largely random example, Phil Rizzuto came in second in the AL MVP voting in 1949 despite a .275/.352/.358 batting line … nearly a perfect match for the .273/.351/.355 slash he carried during a Hall-of-Fame career.)
Still, there’s a point at which it’s hard to stomach the lack of production at the dish. Remarkably, Hamilton managed 2.0 fWAR and 1.0 rWAR in 2015 even while hitting an anemic .226/.274/.289. But that level of offense makes him more of a fourth outfielder than a regular worthy of a major commitment from an organization, so the Reds will no doubt demand more before committing to Hamilton for the long run. Obviously he’s shown more in other seasons, but how much bat is enough? And can Hamilton boost his production to the point where that’s a moot question, perhaps earning an extension in the process? Much of the information needed to answer those questions will be provided by Hamilton’s 2017 season.
Is it too early to label this a “make or break year” for Hamilton? Perhaps, to some extent. After all, he’s only 26 and just reached arbitration eligibility for the first time. (He’ll earn a palatable, but still reasonably significant, $2.625MM salary.) But that leaves only two further years of control, at increasing rates of pay, and the Reds are hoping to push toward contention sooner than later. If there’s uncertainty regarding Hamilton’s future — and the organization’s interest in retaining him beyond his arb years — then surely Cincinnati will look to explore alternatives, while perhaps dangling the unique burner in trade talks. (If late-inning relievers are uniquely appealing at the trade deadline, then how about a baserunning specialist who’d become a rare weapon down the stretch and in the postseason?)
Let’s take a closer look at Hamilton’s hitting profile. Surrounding his putrid 2015 campaign, the switch-hitter compiled two seasons in which his overall output was similar but the way he got there was different. In 2014, his rookie campaign, Hamilton slashed .250/.292/.355; last year, he ran out a .260/.321/.343 batting line. With context factored in, both represented productivity that falls about 20% below league average. But for several reasons, the more recent season was arguably more promising.
First and foremost, Hamilton boosted his walk rate in 2016 to a career-best 7.8%. Relatedly, while his overall contact numbers have held steady, Hamilton continued a trend of laying off of more pitches out of the zone. He also put the ball on the ground quite a bit more than ever before (47.7%), helping him to generate a career-best .329 BABIP even as he recorded a typical (for him) 12.5% infield-hit rate and continued to produce very little had contact.
Those background improvements are reason for some optimism, but it’s Hamilton’s late-season charge that has created the most excitement. As C. Trent Rosecrans of the Cincinnati Enquirer recently examined, Hamilton produced a .369 on-base percentage over his final 45 games, allowing him to steal a remarkable 36 bases in that span. With some professional maturation and improvements to his approach supporting that improvement, perhaps there’s cause to believe that could carry over.
If Hamilton can reach base even at an approximately average clip, he looks like a solid 2.5 to 3.0 WAR player. If he can get on board at a greater rate, perhaps he’ll be a star. But his career OBP of .297 has left his legs in the dugout too frequently. There’s still some time for Hamilton to chart his true course, but the Reds may base their own plans based largely upon his 2017 campaign. The Cincinnati organization has opened up the pocketbook to extend control rights over core players rather frequently, and the Marlins’ extension of Dee Gordon shows the upside for a player of Hamilton’s ilk, but he’ll need to convince the club that he’s capable of sustained productivity to get there.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.