Chatting with SportsGrid’s Craig Mish earlier this week, Byron Buxton spoke about his decision to re-sign a seven-year extension with the Twins rather than play out the 2022 season and enter the free-agent market next winter. Reports dating back to July have indicated that the Twins and Buxton both hoped to work something out, and the 28-year-old tells Mish that “loyalty was a big thing for my family and me” when it came to contract talks. Buxton expressed appreciation for the Twins sticking with him and wanting to build around him despite a litany of injuries. He added that since being selected with the No. 2 overall pick in the 2012 draft, his goals have been to reach the Majors, play for a long time, and to spend his career with one team.
There’s no guarantee that last part will come to fruition, but in addition to a $100MM guarantee, Buxton’s contract came with a full no-trade clause. He can also boost his annual salary considerably with incentives tied to plate appearances and MVP voting. There’s a good bit of risk involved in the deal, given Buxton’s injury history, but as his .277/.321/.575 line and 42 home runs through his past 684 plate appearances show, Buxton is one of the game’s best in terms of raw talent. A hip flexor strain and then a broken hand sustained on a hit-by-pitch limited him to 254 plate appearances in 2021, but Buxton turned in a mammoth .306/.358/.647 slash with 19 home runs in that time.
More from the division…
- Former White Sox outfielder Nicky Delmonico returned to the organization as a minor league hitting coach earlier this week. He told reporters that he hopes this will be just the first step in a lengthy career on the other side of the game (link via Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times). Delmonico, 29, said he would “love to manage” one day and has long felt that would be his calling in his post-playing days. Delmonico might’ve continued his playing career were it not for some recent injury troubles, but he revealed in that media session that he’d have required shoulder surgery and a lengthy rehab process to continue on the field (Twitter link via James Fegan of The Athletic). Fegan notes that Delmonico spent the 2021 instructional league with the White Sox’ club there, learning under the organization’s hitting coordinator, Andy Barkett.
- Akil Baddoo is coming off one of the more successful showings by a Rule 5 draftee in recent years. Selected by the Tigers despite having never appeared above High-A during his time in the Twins system, the left-handed hitter made an immediate splash by hitting four home runs over his first eight MLB games. The sailing obviously didn’t remain quite so smooth, but Baddoo generally impressed over the course of the year. Not only did he stick on the active roster all year, he started more than half of Detroit’s games and posted slightly above-average offensive numbers (.259/.330/.436, 108 wRC+) across 461 plate appearances. Cody Stavenhagen of the Athletic looks back on Baddoo’s season as part of a wide-ranging feature on the 23-year-old outfielder. Baddoo discusses his personal background and ascent to the majors, his offseason routine, and some goals for the 2022 season — including improving against same-handed pitching and strengthening a throwing arm that he says had still felt residual effects from a May 2019 Tommy John surgery. Tigers fans, in particular, will want to give Stavenhagen’s piece a full read.
What Byron Buxton really meant to say was, “I’m probably going to spend most of next season in the injured list. I don’t think anyone would have paid me $100 million on the free agent market after another year of proving I can’t even stay healthy.”
Negotiating with a single team almost always leads to a lower payout than negotiating with 30. That loyalty thing that was talked about in another comment section a few days ago played out on both sides.
The AAV of over $15 million starting in 2023 is not that bad and if Buxton somehow does manage to say healthy for the majority of the deal the Twins will have actually gotten a bargain.
He also has $2.5M per year available in bonuses based on plate appearances, along with $3M-$8M per year based on top-1o MVP finishes. So if he gets >625 PA and wins the MVP, he makes $25.5M.
It’s a very interesting contract structure, one specifically designed for a player who has such huge potential and such an extensive injury history.
I think $100 million guaranteed dollars for any player who has a high likelihood of spending most of his contract on the injured list is a ton of money for any player. What percentage of regular season games did Buxton spend on the IL last season? Whatever the number is, it’s nothing new for him. I certainly hope this doesn’t happen but watch him go down with an oblique strain the first month of the season. Then watch him come back 3 months later and almost immediately pull a hammy. No one would be the slightest bit shocked if that happens. If it does happen does anyone still think he would be guaranteed 9 figures next offseason?
If he misses most of next season, maybe not. If he repeats or betters his 2021? Easily over $100M. The potential for superstardom is so tantalizing.
You’re underselling his talent-ceiling. If – and that’s a big if – he manages to stay healthy, he’s an MVP candidate. In 61 games last season, Byron produced 4.5 bWAR/4.2 fWAR. That is nothing to sneeze at. I assure you that any contending team will pay $12M+ per season for that kind of production even in limited games over the next seven years. I’m aware that you’re being risk-adverse and cynical but I believe it’s a fair shake for both sides here. The Yankees made a similar gamble with Aaron Hicks a few years ago which hasn’t panned out thus far but I don’t fault Brian Cashman’s process then.
I dreamed of an outfield of Hicks and Buxton… would they really need a 3rd outfielder… play a short fielder in the gaps instead…
“In 61 games last season, Byron produced 4.5 bWAR/4.2 fWAR. ”
It’s not only nothing to sneeze at, but pace-wise over 162 games, it would work out to one of the best seasons in MLB history (11.95 bWAR, 11.15 fWAR).
His BABIP in 2021 played a big role, though, but overall, it’s not that much of a fluke. His 2020 pace (2.1 WAR in 39 games) would have been 8.72 WAR over 162 games, and that was with a very low BABIP.
Here’s hoping he can put in at least 120 games in 2022.
Bingo
Buxton will be filthy stinkin’ rich no matter what. Maybe he could have been richer yet, but he and his family can have all they imagine and more. Can’t blame him one bit.
Baddoo had 13 home runs and 18 stolen bases in 124 games in 2021.
If he can play in about 135 games and build off the promise he showed as a rookie, he has a shot at being a 20-20 player.
Yeah, the Tigers may have lucked into a gem there
Give Avila credit. They may start the year with 2 rule 5 players starting in the OF. Baddoo in LF and Reyes in CF.
ROTFL
Wasn’t everyone hyping up Goodrum in a similar manner two years ago? Same with Matthew “Ace” Boyd? As a Brewers fan, I know all too well the dangers of buying into a season’s worth of production, expecting it to translate to a promising career.
Anytime a rule 5 player provides value, it has to be considered a success. Most teams hide the player on the bench and IL to get them thru the required year. Most don’t make the year, and get offered back. Goodrum was the starting SS, basically, one year, and provide a versitile bench player for several others. He will be up with another team if a season gets played. I still hope the Tigers re-sign Boyd. He’s a solid rotation member, and an excellent person.
Goodrum was a waiver claim. The Twins let him go. Tiger fans never proclaimed him as the next great thing, but we hoped he would turn out to be good. But both he and Baddoo came from the Twins and were found money.
That’s right. Goodrum was a Garden-Hire, if you will.
Baddoo though….. there’s a lot to like about him. What I liked most was how he adjusted to how the pitchers adjusted to him. There’s been a lot of players who started with a bang, but didn’t last. Chris Shelton is one that comes to mind.
Haha Armando Galarraga & Chris Shelton pulled a fast one on me! Really-really hoping Akil is different
A non-baseball note……
In the wake of the lockout with nothing going on, I thought I try following the NFL and NBA a bit.
Hoops Rumors and Pro Football Rumors are far superior to any Internet sites. No one touches them if one is a fan just trying to keep up with the teams.
Highly recommend them.
Good advertising, Tim. You are right though. The whole TR site rocks.
Dumb hot take: Akil Badoo will accrue more WAR than Buxton from 2022 on.
Akil was such a huge get for the Tigers. the difference between a good team and a great one is one which includes several under the radar pickups that pay off.
Dumpster Diving Rick Hahn
Ogle, this is really just a ‘smoke screen’ about Delmonico. I know he’d like to manage someday, but the guy the Chisox really have their eye on for that job, is young Drake LaRoche. They will soon start grooming him.
Would be darn funny if that kid grew up to manage a rival team of theirs one day.
Twins really had played like Blankenhorn and Refsnyder on their 40 man at points last season but couldn’t find a spot for Baddoo. Also traded Lamonte Wade for a player they don’t even have anymore. What a disaster.
? Blankenhorn was a decent prospect coming into the year and Refsnyder didnt join the 40 until after Baddoo was long gone.
Akil’s younger brother played soccer with my son. I met him when he was in 8th. I told him remember me when you make it. He was always built for success. His family are great people. Glad to know he is doing awesome things.
The signing made little sense except from the standpoint of needing a ” face of the franchise” to sell tickets with… the twins don’t have enough pitching to be a good AAA team.. and that isn’t expected to change… RF Kepler has gotten worse over time where he now looks like a platoon outfielder because he hasn’t hit lefties… their outfield prospect ” stars” of Lurch, Rookie and Kirilloff ( who ooked like a 1B guy and the other 2 were DH material) are slow footed- defensively challenged… their infield of Sayno… worst 1st baseman in the league, Polanco… a poor 2nd baseman and a terrible SS.. they have no SS and they have Donaldson.. who ‘s injuries seem to be catching up with his defense… and Arraez who looked OK at 3rd and OK at 2nd…better than expected… and if there is anything that hurts your pitching it is poor defense… so the pitching they do have is going to be worse than you’d think because the defense will stink… and if buxton gets Hurt the Outfield will be terrible ..
I am skeptical Akil will be along term starter, maybe a decent platoon, 4th Ofer type. He struggled in the second half (outside of June mostly), and cannot hit lefty’s at all. Then again, he jumped from Hi-A and is young so he could develop some consistency with more experience.
In regard to Baddoo, it’s always exciting when young players adjust and adapt to whatever major league pitchers and coaches throw at them. Every player was probably the best player on all his teams, talent-wise, as an amateur. But at each professional level his psyche and intestinal fortitude is challenged. Success comes from the inside, too, not just physical talent. Personally, I’m rooting for him.
I just got his rookie card a few days ago, I’ll be rooting for him as well ! 🙂