The Reds could be without top starter Luis Castillo when Opening Day rolls around, as manager David Bell told reporters Tuesday that Castillo was briefly shut down due to some shoulder soreness (Twitter link via Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer). Castillo is healthy now and has resumed throwing, per Bell, but he’s behind schedule in his buildup for the season. There was more concerning news on righty Justin Dunn, acquired in last week’s Jesse Winker trade, as Bell revealed that he’ll miss at least a couple of months due to ongoing shoulder troubles. Nightengale further notes that the Reds were aware of Dunn’s injury status when acquiring him.
The good news for Reds fans is that there’s no indication Castillo is being plagued by a serious injury. It’s possible he’d only miss the first turn or two through the rotation, so long as there are no further setbacks as he builds back up.
For much of the offseason, Castillo stood out as one of the more logical trade candidates on the market. General manager Nick Krall began the offseason speaking of a need to align the Reds’ payroll to its resources, and the first few moves continued a cost-cutting sequence that dated back to last offseason. The Reds placed Wade Miley and his eminently reasonable $10MM salary on waivers and traded catcher Tucker Barnhart to the Tigers. In the days coming out of the lockout, Cincinnati dealt Sonny Gray to the Reds and traded both Jesse Winker and Eugenio Suarez to the Mariners.
Since shedding the remainder of the Suarez deal, however, the Reds have begun to make some more modest additions to the payroll. They picked up about $7MM of salary obligations in the trade that sent Amir Garrett to Kansas City in exchange for Mike Minor, and the Reds have also given out small big league deals to infielder Donovan Solano and reliever Hunter Strickland. Krall has since publicly stated that he does not expect to trade either Castillo or right-hander Tyler Mahle, who was a popular trade target of pitching-needy teams himself.
Castillo, 29, got out to a rocky start in 2021 when he posted an ugly 7.22 ERA through his first 11 appearances. His return to form was swift and emphatic, however, as Castillo closed out the year with a brilliant stretch of 22 starts that saw him work to a 2.73 ERA with a 26% strikeout rate and 9.4% walk rate. Over the past three seasons, he’s given the Reds 448 1/3 innings of 3.61 ERA ball with a 27% strikeout rate, a 9.3% walk rate and an outstanding 56.8% grounder rates. He’s controllable through the 2023 campaign, and it stands to reason that if the Reds don’t contend this year, Castillo’s name will again surface on the summer trade market. It’s a similar story with Mahle, who’s also controlled through 2023.
As for Dunn, the news of a months-long absence due to a shoulder problem that dates back to June 2021, when the right-hander last pitched, is surely a source of frustration. The 26-year-old Dunn pitched 50 1/3 innings of 3.75 ERA ball with Seattle last year but did so with a below-average 22.8% strikeout rate, a bloated 11.3% walk rate and a low 33.8% grounder rate. He last took the ball on June 17.
Dunn is a former first-round pick and well-regarded prospect, having been drafted 19th overall by the Mets in 2016 and traded to the Mariners alongside Jarred Kelenic in the deal that sent Robinson Cano and Edwin Diaz to New York. He can still be controlled all the way through the 2025 season, but it now seems that by the time he’s ready to go for the Reds, he’ll have missed upwards of a year due to shoulder troubles.
The injury news on Dunn squarely takes him out of the running for the fifth spot in the rotation, and with Castillo ailing to a much lesser degree, there’s some uncertainty regarding who’ll round out the starting staff. If Castillo isn’t ready to go, Opening Day would likely fall to Mahle. He’d be followed by Minor and Vladimir Gutierrez, with right-hander Tony Santillan and perhaps lefty Reiver Sanmartin serving as early options as well. The Reds figure to get a look at several top pitching prospects in 2022 — Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo and Brandon Williamson among them — but it’s unclear whether they’d consider dipping into their farm for an early-season stopgap.
That very well could explain why the M’s were willing to part with him. While his peripherals haven’t told the best stories, a 26-year old starter who has been a reasonably reliable young innings eater with a very high ceiling has value. His control is already scary though, and I can’t imagine shoulder troubles will help that out.
Also the M’s probably realized that when deployed properly, Jesse Winker is a really good hitter.
Stupidly we’re already talking about using him against a lot of lefties.
If his shoulder was messy in the physical the reds SHOULD have caught it
Read the article.
Why must people be so nasty to others on here?
Beats me.
Why not ask flamingbagofpoop?
How is saying read the article, which clearly says the Reds knew about the injury and still accepted, considered “being nasty?”
@baberuth
Yeah there is a lot more meanness then that on here.
I apologize again to everyone for my son Donny who frequents here. He’s not necessarily mean the family likes to refer to him as mentally challenged.
baberuthbomber
How is saying read the article, which clearly says the Reds knew about the injury and still accepted, considered “being nasty?”
==================================
Like everyone else, I will occasionally doing something stupid. It doesn’t bother me to have it pointed out. We’d be better off as a society if everyone spent a year in The Bronx.
Why are you selling yourself low? You always do stupid stuff on here.
I hope that wasn’t mean because it was a joke. Problem is people take things too serious on here. Lighten up a bit.
Wut the…? They acquired a pitcher with a serious shoulder problem?
M’s really fleeced the reds huh. Sold them damaged goods.
It’s worse. The Reds knowingly fleeced themselves!
So, they acquired a serious shoulder problem fleecing themselves?
Armaments216: Yes, in the article it PLAINLY STATES “that the Reds KNEW ABOUT THE SHOULDER INJURY”. Therefore, yes, the Reds “fleeced themselves”. However Brandon Williamson could be a future #2-3 starter in a couple of years.
The Reds were so hell bent on getting rid of Suarez’s contract they would have taken anyone. That’s how inept this admin is. I’ve spent 35 years rooting for this team and to see ownership actively rooting against it pains me. Canceled my season tickets. If they won’t spend money to be competitive then I won’t either.
You are correct. This management is one of the biggest incompetent jokes in baseball. They have no desire or intent of fielding a winning team.
Mariners paid Bruce & Swarzak $36M for little to no production, paid the Mets $20M, got nothing out of Bautista, threw Dunn in as an injured player into this trade. All they have left from dealing Diaz and Cano is Kelenic who did not look good in CF and hit .211 in 2021. Mets will pay Cano $96M minus the $20M the M’s sent and have had 2.0 WAR in Diaz and control for another 2 years. This trade doesn”t seem so lopsided anymore.
Yeah, other than the fact Cano got busted for banned substance AGAIN, meanwhile kelenic was a top 10 prospect when he graduated to the bigs, and dunn was part of the trade that brought winker and Suarez to Seattle. Thats 3 members of the starting lineup.
Dunn did not get the M’s Winker and Suarez. Dunn is a throw in. Williamson is a 6’6″ lefty with huge potential and we don’t know who the PTBNL is yet.
I heard on a Seattle station that the PTBNL would be a prospect from the 15-20 list. We shall see.
I read something similar. The PTBNL js usually no one of great value. Just more of the BS Reds management attempts to feed to their fans.
Cano wore out his welcome in Seattle and Diaz is a beast. But the Mariners were going to suck so why have an elite type closer when you won’t win more than 70 games? I think it was a great trade for the mariners and Kelenic is still young and Dunn got us Jesse Winkler and a third baseman with pop.
The point is that everyone thinks DiPoto snookered a dumb Brodie because he stuck Cano’s salary on him; that Kelenic is the next Junior; and therefore DiPoto a genius.
I’ve often pointed out that that the Mets dumped bad contracts as well……to no avail.
1. In time the trade will prove to be a wash, possibly a slight gain to the Mets as Diaz is a decent relief pitcher, although he’ll never be seen as an elite one. I look for Kelenic to bounce around – maybe someone can unlock him for a few good years….but a budding superstar he’s not.
2. This reminds me about the Carlos Baerga trade the Indians and Mets made where everyone decided the Indians were swindled. Proved to be nothing much for either team.
3. DiPoto is Preller. Watch.
With an $84 million payroll last year Jerry Dipoto’s team won 90 games after being projected to win no more than 72 games.
With a $179 million payroll last year A.J. Preller’s team won 79 games after being projected to win 93 games.
How is Jerry Dipoto like A.J. Preller?
@ muskie73;
Watch.
P.S. And don’t get me started on “Projections” – which show up every year as gospel. They’re forever wrong about individual players and teams. Ever notice how you never read the results of those projections the following year…..just more projections for the coming year?
Given your track record, I guess Kelenic will be the unanimous MVP this year.
@ flamingbagofpoop;
Let’s discuss my track record. Not perfect, but very good.
Classy handle by the way. You think that up yourself? Just the type of person anyone would be honored to be critiqued by.
Have a nice day.
The Indians actually got Jeff Kent in that trade with the Mets, so that could have been a win for Cleveland. Nice to know we weren’t the only morons to let him get away.
@ Hurricane Sandy;
You’re correct.
I may have been thinking of the Robbie Alomar trade when the Indians got a few prospects – the best one got hurt and never amounted to anything.
Most trades by themselves mean nothing. What matters is what the Baseball Ops head does over a period of time with the budget he has and working in where the team is at as per contention.
methinks the lady doth protest too much
Kelenic is 22. While he struggled in his first taste of the majors, he hit .320/.392/.624/1.016 in AAA. That is a small sample size, but it fits his prospect profile. Anyone that is writing him off is not being realistic.
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I am Met fan and I agree.. Kelenic is a dime a dozen player whereas Diaz has been above average most of the time and is still young. Cano has a couple of years of DHing now. The Mets did OK and I have always thought so from the beginning.
Ding-Ding-Ding Kelenic was the one of/if not the M’s BEST Hitter down the stretch! After just turning 22 in July, he hit 7HR’s with 18RBI’s in the month of September and OPS of .858! NY Fans are dilusional if they don’t think this guy still has immense value and likely will for the better part of the next decade! J-DiP fleeced you then, just like he’s fleecing the Reds here again, who the heck trades for a pitcher with a shoulder injury and KNOWS IT? Bwahahaha! GO M’s!!!
And Dunn was used to get Winker
What on earth are you talking about. The M’s got rid of Canó’s contract they won the trade by a landslide even if they got nobody back and Diaz saved 60 games two seasons in a row. Money runs the sport. Anytime you get rid of that much money you win the trade. You people need to learn how gms value payroll flexibility. It was lopsided at the time for anyone intelligent and it’s quite clear now the mariners won easily.
Nope, I disagree. Stop crying.
Kelenic hit .181 last yr
wedgeant27: He did that as a 21 yr old. Several players struggled in their 1st big league season and have illustrious careers.
Kelenic didn’t even struggle for the complete season. He had a .756 OPS in the final two months, with only a .256 BABIP. There is more to analysis than the statistics on the back of the baseball card.
Hope Wedge in one of my rotisserie teams.
Don’t they have to go through health tests before being traded? Seems quite odd that they guy is trades and all of the sudden he can’t participate.
It looks like Moustakas injured today too. What a disastrous off-season
The writing was on the wall last year. I think Moustakas will be on the IL most of the time for the remainder of his contract.
Is this the poor get poorer or the afflicted get sicker
Both.
You lost me when you wrote, Cincinnati dealt Sonny Gray to the Reds.
Maybe you could support the site with a membership instead of being cheap. No loss if you move on.
Your life must be awful if you need MLBTR membership for validation.
It’s staeting to feel like The Reds will be lucky to win 40 games this season.
Castillo’s turnaround last season screams cortisone shot. Which is good for the short term, but ugly long term.
What do you Red fans think of San Martin? He looked great last season in that small sample, but, is he expected to stay with the big team this year? Or was more like a reward for a good minor league year?
Sanmartin is a nice lefty. Like many lefties, the fastball sits in low 90’s but his location is good with some movement. Off speed stuff is good. Some think he is more suited for a bullpen role, but that should be after trying him as a starter first.
Granted, his two starts last year at the end of the season were against the Pirates, but he did pitch well in both outings.
In 2022 Sanmartin might be a starter. But now that the Reds have lefties Lodolo and the newly acquired Williamson on the cusp of being ready as LH starters, Sanmartin could be bullpen bound.
Sanmartin was in low-A when the Reds acquired him along with Sonny Gray from the Yankees. He has progressed nicely since then. Next winter the Reds roster is going to be flush with many talented young starting pitchers. Next winter may be time to start to trade from some of that depth. 2023 could be a very bountiful year for the young Reds.
I really don’t comprehend what the Reds strategy is this season. They could have received a Kings ransom for Castillo (and Mahrle) and although they may deal one or both at the deadline, I have to think 2 years is the prime timeframe to capitalize on trade return. It’s not like the Reds have a roster that looks to compete in 2022 or 2023, so maximize your trade value as much as possible. Now if Castillo gets hurt (with pitchers there’s often smoke before fire), that will obviously kill his once high trade value. Hopefully he’s not hurt…
I don’t like it but I see what they’re doing. When the Reds went for it a couple years ago they maxed out their payroll to do it. The pandemic made it very difficult to maintain that level. They have no interest in a total rebuild. So they prioritized removing the salaries of players that were not long term fits. Could they have gotten a better return? I think so. But what would your favorite team part with for Wade Miley and Tucker Barnhart? Moving Suarez gives them a better place to play Moustakas, especially if they think the best of Suarez is passed. They got a good prospect and some extras for everyone else.
Reds GM: We will send you Winker and would like a couple pitchers back.
Mariners GM: We can do that. We’ll send medicals over on a few.
Reds GM: No need. Do you have at least one pitcher with arm injuries?
Mariners GM: Come again?
Reds GM: Perhaps even one with a shoulder injury, even a potential career-ending one will work.
Mariners GM: Well, we have this Dunn guy. He’ll be out for months at minimum.
Reds GM: Sold.
Really, I have no idea what the Reds are doing.
When I suggested a mini-rebuild last year, I had in mind getting something back in return.
I generally have issues with the Rockies and Padres FO, but the Reds are starting to pull ahead of them.
RobM: BRANDON WILLIAMSON was the key return. He’ll be up this year. He could be a solid #2-3 in a couple of years.
Williamson has 15 inning in Low-A. He’s not remotely close to getting called up this season.
Justin Dunn is a future closer in Cincinnati.
Or a pitcher with a serious arm injury who never pans out. Who knows? That type of player has little value in his current state.
I guess the Reds forgot how successful trading for Dilson Hererra was
Wouldn’t it be ironic if, by the end of the season, the Reds actually won this off season?
The Reds would be wise to trade Castillo even if he’s not ready to go by opening day. Schmidty or Deivi, Randy Vasquez and Andújar should be enough. I’m higher on Castillo than Manaea or Montas. Get it done, Ca$hman!