The 45-31 Padres possess baseball’s fifth-best winning percentage (.592) and fifth-best run differential (+63). They’ve achieved this success despite receiving middle-of-the-pack production from first base and designated hitter in addition to well below-average offensive production from center field and right field. The Friars have also played the entire season thus far without star shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr. (although Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune writes that Tatis could begin hitting off a tee within the next two weeks and embark on a rehab assignment a couple weeks after that).
Given their success to date, the clear win-now direction of their recent slate of transactions and the generally aggressive mindset of baseball operations president A.J. Preller, one would expect the Padres to be in the market for upgrades as the Aug. 2 trade deadline approaches. They were reportedly seeking corner outfield upgrades even before the season started, and this year’s rough showing from center fielder Trent Grisham (.188/.287/.321 through 281 plate appearances) creates even further uncertainty in the outfield.
The problem for the Padres, as has been well documented in the past, is that their backs are up against a luxury-tax barrier that ownership seems unwilling to surpass for what would be a second consecutive season. Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez estimates San Diego’s current slate of luxury tax obligations to be $229.4MM — just $600K shy of this year’s newly increased $230MM threshold. Agents I’ve spoken to who talked with the Padres late in the offseason said the team indeed suggested there was no real room to add to the Major League payroll, given their proximity to the tax line.
All of that meshes with reports that we’ve seen for more than a year now: that the Padres would love to shed the contracts of Wil Myers and/or Eric Hosmer and have explored attaching prospects of note in an effort to do just that. Those efforts, however, have come up empty — and it seems unlikely that the Padres would have any more success now. Myers has been on the injured list since May 31 due to a knee injury and was hitting just .234/.276/.306 in 134 plate appearances before being shelved. He’s owed the remainder of a $20MM salary this year plus a $1MM buyout on a 2023 option. Hosmer came out of the gates on fire but has faceplanted with a .238/.294/.330 slash in 201 plate appearances since May 1. He’s being paid $20MM this season and is owed $39MM total from 2023-25.
Every deadline season is different, and perhaps the Padres will finally beat the odds and manage to unload one of those cumbersome contracts, but with neither player doing much to improve his stock, that feels unlikely. If the Padres can’t manage to find a taker for either Myers or Hosmer but still wish to improve at the deadline, it stands to reason that they’ll have to explore other creative scenarios.
The simplest scenario for the Friars, despite the manner in which their pitching depth evaporated late in the 2021 season, would be to deal from their Major League rotation — either in order to acquire an outfielder of note or in order to clear the requisite payroll to do so in a separate trade. The Padres have an enviable starting staff of Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish, Sean Manaea, Mike Clevinger, Blake Snell and breakout rookie MacKenzie Gore. The staff is deep enough that righty Nick Martinez, who signed an opt-out-laden four-year deal in free agency this winter, has been working out of the bullpen at times in recent weeks.
It’s true that the Padres’ upper-level depth in the minors isn’t exactly at a high point. Adrian Martinez was traded to the A’s in the Manaea deal. Ryan Weathers and Reiss Knehr have pitched poorly in Triple-A. There’s risk in dealing from the big league staff, as a few injuries (and/or workload fatigue from Gore) could radically alter the picture. That said, a trade involving someone from the current staff could also net some lower-end pitching depth to help serve as insurance upon which to lean in the event of further injuries. It also shouldn’t be ruled out that the Padres could deal from the current rotation and reallocate some of that space to yet another newly acquired veteran arm; they’ve already been linked to Reds ace Luis Castillo, for instance.
Dennis Lin of The Athletic wrote in his latest mailbag that of the team’s current starters, Snell is the likely preference if they’re to make a trade. That makes good sense, as he carries a $10MM luxury hit for the Padres and has underperformed this season after missing significant time with an adductor strain to begin the year. Snell has at times looked quite strong this season, and fielding-independent pitching metrics feel he’s been better than his 5.60 ERA. Still, Snell has walked 12.2% of his opponents and regularly run up lofty pitch counts early in games, leading to an average of just five innings per outing.
Despite the struggles, Snell isn’t far removed from a far more promising stretch of games. Last year’s 4.20 ERA in 27 starts looks underwhelming, but he posted a 3.24 ERA with a 33.3% strikeout rate and 10.8% walk rate following last year’s All-Star break –a stretch that was capped off with 44 1/3 frames of 1.83 ERA ball. Snell completed seven innings and logged double-digit strikeout totals four times in that span, looking every bit like the former Cy Young winner he is. Snell is earning $12.5MM this season and has a $16MM salary for the 2023 season, and another club might feel it’s worth taking the financial risk to buy low on such a talented arm. Lin writes that the Padres have been “frustrated” by Snell’s lack of performance.
Other members of the rotation would also be more difficult to move. There’s no chance the Padres would move Musgrove amid a potential Cy Young campaign. Darvish has been their second-best starter, making him tough to replace, and he’s also the most expensive of the bunch, making him tougher for other teams to take on. Clevinger’s $5.75MM luxury number doesn’t give the Padres as much financial leeway as Snell would, and he’s pitched even less this season than Snell (albeit also more effectively). Manaea has been solid and would surely draw interest, but the team probably doesn’t want to remove an as-advertised mid-rotation arm that was only acquired a couple months ago — even if he’s a free agent this winter. Martinez’s opt outs make him an unappealing trade candidate. Snell strikes the balance of track record, upside and also current expendability that could make a team bite, even if it’d be selling low for the Padres.
Where else could the Friars look to get creative, though? Righty Dinelson Lamet is currently pitching out of the bullpen in Triple-A while earning a $4.775MM salary. He was clobbered for 10 runs in 8 1/3 big league innings earlier this year and hasn’t been the same since returning from Tommy John surgery, but he’s a big arm who could potentially appeal to another club willing to take on some money. No one should expect him to replicate his otherworldly 2.09 ERA, 34.8% strikeout rate and 7.5% walk rate from the shortened 2020 season, but those numbers are illustrative of the talent Lamet possesses. Could they find a taker for an injured Drew Pomeranz, who’s in the third season of a four-year, $34MM contract? Again, it’d be selling low on an immensely talented arm.
Looking up and down the roster, the Padres may not love the idea of parting with Ha-Seong Kim, who has become a useful bench piece thanks to standout defense at three positions and a passable, if unexciting, .226/.311/.345 batting line (91 wRC+). But the former KBO superstar hasn’t yet lived up to expectations since signing a four-year, $28MM contract in free agency, and the associated $7MM luxury hit that comes with that deal is more significant for the Padres now than it was at the time of his signing. Once Tatis returns, Kim will likely see his playing time reduced considerably.
However it plays out, the Padres have a difficult road ahead as the trade deadline approaches. They’ll either need to convince trade partners to pay the salary of any upgrades they acquire (thus increasing the prospect cost to make those deals), finally succeed in dumping an onerous contract, or sell low on some pricey but valuable depth in a manner that could come back to haunt them. The alternatives are to simply stand pat, hoping that the return of Tatis and some improvements from the likes of Snell, Myers and Hosmer will be sufficient upgrades — or to bite the bullet and cross over into luxury territory.
Bob Melvin is a great manager
Even after yesterday?
I wonder if the Royals are willing to take on some extra money for prospect talent from San Diego? The Padres could send Wil Myers to KC to reunite him with his old club. The Royals would send back Andrew Benintendi and the Padres would include at least 2 intriguing prospects back to KC. This would free up a pro-rated $10M for San Diego and take care of one of their lackluster offensive positions (LF). In the past, KC has been willing to take some shots on players like Lamet. That would require KC taking on more salary but I believe they can control him for multiple years, hoping he can turn it all around next season. Including Lamet would not lessen the prospect package SD would need to include; in fact it could increase it but after KC’s terrible performance this season it’s clear that they need to rebuild and they could pry away some advanced prospects from SD should they be willing to take on some additional money for the stretch run.
According to BTV (take or leave their valuation as you see fit), Wil Myers, Ryan Weathers, Jackson Merrill, Samuel Zavala and Garrett Hawkins for Andrew Benintendi is exactly fair. Although I am not sure if the Royals would take a quantity over quality return. It would be reasonable of them to ask for Wood, but I wouldn’t do that if I’m Preller.
By the time the deadline rolls around, Benintendi and Myers’ respective trade values will be closer to zero than they are now, which favors the Padres.
40-man roster issues would likely make the Royals hesitant to do that.
The only players the Royals would pick up in that trade who need to be on the 40-man roster immediately are Myers and Weathers. They lose Benintendi for one spot so they only have to DFA one guy. That guy might be Myers.
Garrett Hawkins doesn’t have to be on the 40-man roster until after 2024. The other 2 guys are after 2025.
Why would SDP do that? Benintendi doesn’t upgrade anyone in the OF..
Even worse, he essentially is LF only so either he or Profar would be heading to the bench. Upgrading the bench is an ok idea but I would prefer to see them upgrade in spots where players would get more at bats,.
They would be a very high cost for Benintendi who has cooled off considerably after April. In the last month Grisham has a higher OPS, don’t think it would worth it for a pretty marginal half season upgrade.
I hope they don’t grab Benintendi, not that im a padres fan, however this would be very similar to the Adam Frazier move, all contact little anything else. As soon as they slump a bit they’re providing close to nothing.
Why would SD do that when Benintendi is a FA after this season? Myers is a FA after the season also..give prospects for a half a season ..no thanks.. maybe Myers and a low A prospect for Benintendi..if you want 2 promising prospects then the Royals would have to take on Snell or Hosmer.
Bienintendi and Profar are similarly having one of the better years of their careers, and Bienintendi would be only a slight upgrade over Profar. Maybe not worth it to go after Bienintendi, short term or long, especially given that Myers returns in a few weeks, one of Tatis/Abrams will likely play OF and Hassell Jr and Ruiz join team in 2023 (Ruiz maybe this year), Wood in 24.
I do think the Pads should add a veteran OF at trade deadline, but as a depth piece, not a feature player that costs a SP or high level prospects.
I have been a Profar hater for years so this is hard for me to post. Profar since Melvin moved him to leadoff – .319/.395/.487/.882 with a 152 OPS+.
Do the Padres need to get an OF? YES!! I agree with you that it should be a depth piece, not a feature player. Do they need to move on from Profar? It doesn’t look like it right now.
Abrams is hitting just a touch over the Mendoza line with no power, so until he shows marked improvement the Padres cannot count on him locking down SS. He has basically 3 weeks of games until Tatis returns to show he is more than a mid-infield backup.
Hosmer has a .116 OPS+ right now and his last 7 days have shown improvement both in contact rate and hard hit balls. Not sure he is tradable even if he kept up the torrid pace he had the first month of the season.
I have never been a Snell fan and have consistently said since before the trade was made that picking him up would be a mistake. Preller didn’t listen and everything I said has come to pass. The Padres should absolutely move on from him even if it costs them picking up part of his contract for 2022. Eat $5-6 million of the $21.6 million he will be owed as of the ASG and move on.
Yeah, you called it with Snell I agree. Melvin wants his starters to go deep so he’s a bad match for Snell, who seems destined to get through lineups twice, but not 3 times. Snell’s stuff is good but his mental make-up isn’t best for RP.
A little early to judge Abrams, I think he’ll develop mid-level power. And it’s encouraging that in the last 10 days he’s been barreling up on the ball, with numerous line drive outs and drives to the fence. He went 6 for 18 this week and showed more discipline. He’s in the infant stages of his career and will be a good one.
Snell isn’t an “attach prospects to dump” guy. And the Padres certainly don’t see him as one after giving up Luis Patiño and Cole Wilcox for him.
Lamet and a prospect for Ben Gamel. Make it happen.
I wish the Pirates were bold enough to also take on Myers contract with even more prospect capital attached. They have basically no payroll this year and in my dream world could afford this one time hit.
Yea that would be a great fit actually.
100% agree with taking on Myers for prospects.
If they were willing to include enough prospects to make it worthwhile another team would have already done it.
Jung Like My Daddy
Myers started the season at 22.5 mill. Now that we are roughly 70+ games into the season the money owed to Myers is a little more than half.
Negotiating unloading 22.5 mill is a lot harder than negotiating unloading 12 something mill.
Each day that passes the amount owed becomes less too. By the time the deadline rolls around unloading Myers would essentially mean unloading 10 something mill, a lot easier for teams to unload 10 mill without breaking the farm compared to trying to move 22.5 mill.
That is actually a pretty good suggestion. Lamet and a mid-level prospect like Tirso Ornelas for Gamel. Gamel slots in as a platoon bat against righties.
That trade knocks about $1 million off the Padres books for the balance of the season.
It’s a salary cap. Call it a soft cap but it’s a cap. Players never should have agreed to anything resembling a salary cap.
Soft cap, in other words NOT a cap as teams do go over it. It discourages some teams but that’s not a “cap”. Besides, if you can’t build a team on 230 million….
You totally missed the point but ok.
No I get the point I think I just find it an odd bit of wordplay. It sometimes has the effect of working as a cap to some teams but that is exactly why it isn’t a cap. I realize I am nit picking here.
I agree with Cosmo. If teams have the choice to exceed the tax threshold, then it’s not a cap. The fact that some teams are adverse to exceeding it is no different from any team with a stricter than average budget.
The players agreed to the current the CBT because it was a compromise to an actual salary cap. Had they not. We wouldn’t have baseball to watch.
The point of the Padres reticence of exceeding a luxury tax is not the money. Peter Seidler would pony up a few more $million in a heartbeat, if Preller justified it. The problem is that the lux. tax cost the Padres prospects, which are the lifeblood of small to medium market teams. Exceeding the MLB Luxury tax impacts the Padres future in a twofold way, and gets significantly worse from year one to year two.
The Padres are willing to break the lux tax limit, but it’ll have to be a pretty good reason to do so. It would certainly need to be for something better than a utility position player or reliever. The Pads could use those ballplayers, but not at the cost in current prospects + $$$ + future prospects, + possible MLB roster players. Very few impact ballplayers are available, that could justify the overall expense of exceeding the Lux. tax 2 years in a row.
Oh yeah. It would have been much better to dig in their heels over that and not get paid at all because of a lockout and turn off a large portion of fans that REALLY pay their salary.
Again hot dogs and beers and soda sales go 100% to the owners pockets ! Those sales help pay zero point zero point zero of the players salaries am ticker sales don’t really contribute either! Tv money factually pays for all player salaries
What’s the point? Isn’t that TV money still “the fans”? It’s all intertwined anyway.
Technically and legally it’s not a cap but for all intents and purposes it’s a cap. Looking at it long term owners will build on what they have and never give in to the players on this. All I’m saying is the players lost ground when they gave in to this.
I absolutely get what your saying. I’m just having a little fun with the whole, “it’s not a cap but when someone refuses to go over it it’s a cap” thing. It’s just a bit absurd if you really think about it but I absolutely understand what you are saying. I don’t totally agree though, seeing as SD might go over but who knows?
If fans stopped watching baseball on TV, do you think that TV money will be around next time?
Then everything would fall apart but again factually those overpriced beers and sodas and chicken pot pies don’t contribute to paying players at all! Think of it as the owners counter or version of side endorsements they don’t have to share with players like the players don’t have to share their endorsement money with the owners
The owners don’t “share” concession money with the players, nor do they “share” the TV money, nor ticket sales. Payroll, as it is for any business, is a percentage of sales. All sales.
If they move a player for cash considerations, or sell advertising, or sell a beer and a dog, it’s all revenue that will determine payroll.
There is no money that goes “100% into the owners pockets.”
@Noel1982 – You’re actually wrong about that. Most owners/teams hire a 3rd party company (like Aramark) to run all of their concessions. Aramark books all of the revenue from concession sales themselves and then pays the owner/team a portion of their profits (a pretty sizable portion I believe). Most teams choose to go this route rather than having to hire a bunch of cooks, hire retail help, order food inventory, etc. All of the concession workers are employees of this 3rd party corporation and not employees of the ball club / stadium.
I’m not sure what all teams/owners do with their percentage of the profits from concession sales but teams like the Cubs definitely use those proceeds to fund baseball operations. The Cubs’ owners clearly stated this during the shortened 2020 pandemic season. The Cubs owners went on to say that game day revenues at Wrigley account for more than 50% of the team’s annual revenue so not having fans in the stands in 2020 ‘crippled’ them financially. Take that statement for what it’s worth but the Cubs were definitely one of the teams that lost money in 2020 and part of that loss came directly from the lack of concession revenues.
I’d be careful in how much trust you put in the public-facing comments about team finances that teams make. Baseball owners have been quite creative over the decades in distorting their financial picture. They typically have several companies under management and they recognize revenue in each of those businesses. For example, for decades, the Mets franchise showed almost no money from local TV. That’s because they sold the rights to local broadcasts to another company owned by the Mets for $1. That company then realized the full profit from those broadcasts. Teams have done the same with parking revenues, merchandise sales, and lots of other things. This is important because it allows them to manipulate the conversation around payroll as a percentage of revenues and the financial integrity of the franchise. When you consider all the accounting shenanigans, no team in baseball is losing money this year. It’s doubtful that any team lost money in 2020. But the owners like to tell us that they’re losing money. They’re not. They might not be making as much money as they want, but isn’t that true of any business? Much of what I say was well researched and documented in Lords of the Realm, the epic history of baseball owners. It’s long, but so worthwhile. Read it. I went from having a natural sympathy towards ownership to appreciating where the union came from and why the baseball owners have been so untrustworthy over the decades. I rarely come out on the side of organized labor in my life, but this is one case where it’s easy to do that.
The OP talked about the Cubs. They’ve got an extensive and complex accounting structure. The sports book that they’re building inside the stadium? Those revenues will be captured in a different corporation to shield them from the players. The restaurants, hotel, and rooftops that the Cubs own around Wrigley? They’re captured in a series of corporations that keep them out of view of the players. All the non-baseball events that the Cubs host throughout the summer in Wrigley? Also in another corporation. Accounting is a beautiful thing, but it can be used to tell whatever story the club wants to tell about its finances.
Yeah, “the Cubs owner clearly stated” anything should make everyone suspicious.
Team owners clearly state that they can’t possibly use their own money to build new facilities, either. They absolutely CAN, they just don’t wanna, and they’re adept at getting politicians to submit.
Didn’t the Cubs and Braves used to do that with their WGN / TBS money? The teams “charged” the networks a relative pittance. The same group owned the team and the network, so the owners got to keep almost all the revenue generated by the broadcasts but it didn’t go into the money available for baseball ops.
gocincy, I agree with pretty much everything you said in your first comment except “natural sympathy towards ownership.” I’m not sure where that would come from naturally. I remember growing up rooting for Robin Hood, not the king.
You are right that no team runs its own concessions. Aramark, Delaware West, and others run it for them and give them team 15-20% of the gross sales.
The Cubs ownership lied. Game day revenue including ticket sales is just 30% of total revenue for the team with more than $300 million coming from local and national TV deals according to The Business of Baseball. That percentage has not changed since the Cubs signed their new deal with Sinclair.
Team owners lie??? I’m shocked! Shocked, I say!
The fans pay the owners baseball income as well so..
For that matter, owners should have never agreed to guaranteed contracts. If there were no guaranteed contracts, teams could just release overpaid former stars who aren’t performing to their pay level and spend the money on players who are actually performing. Probably higher yearly salaries for players but no guarantee of long term security. Trade-off. Maybe soft salary cap and guaranteed contracts are both gone in next CBA. No, both being gone is as likely as me pitching in the majors next year.
I don’t think there’s anyway the owners get away with that
Skeptical, in this scenario, would players get paid what they’re worth their first 6-7 years in the majors? When people complain about “overpaid former stars,” they rarely acknowledge the massive savings owners make on younger players.
Saying the owners never should have agreed to guaranteed contracts is just like saying the players should never have agreed to the CBT. If both sides need to agree on a CBA neither of those stances work.
Owners don’t have to sign players, and even then they can attempt to make any contract non guaranteed. Just why would a player do that?
@Skeptical – There is zero chance of that ever happening. Guaranteed salaries is one of the primary reasons baseball players unionized in the first place back in the 50’s – 60’s and they will never give that up. The MLBPA is by far the most powerful union in all of professional sports. They fought extremely hard for these rights and will never give them up.
I think a more feasible option for MLB could be to allow owner opt outs. A lot of the top players are negotiating opt outs into their contracts in case they over perform or if the market increases while they are under contract. Why not allow the owners to negotiate some sort of opt out or buy out clause themselves? If the player vastly underperforms, the owner can buy out their remaining XX years at 50% of the contract value or something like that. You just can’t wait and buy out the last year of the contract (or you can for 100% of the value). Again, I’m not sure the union would ever allow this but it would be awesome if they could do that somehow.
They already do have owner opt-outs. They’re called team options. There are often one or two of them at the tail end of long term deals. Unless it is expressly forbidden by the CBA, teams and players can put any stipulation they want in a contract as long as both sides agree to it.
No agent who wants to stay an agent will ever ever ever ever let one of his clients sign a large, long-term contract with an owner opt-out in the middle of it.
Owner opt outs is a brilliant idea imo. You’re a saint
Those same owners would then have to give up on those years when players were under team control and providing massive excess value. All players would be free agents from day one.
They did so because they didn’t want to give up fully guaranteed contracts. Which would you rather have?
bigjon, I’m not clear who you’re replying to.
Players never should have agreed to anything resembling a salary cap.
It’s a negotiation. The players agree to a cap in exchange for other benefits. They might be able to get rid of the cap in exchange for, say no guaranteed contracts. They choose not to.
Past that, it has very little impact on the players. There are only a small handful of teams that can afford to go over the cap. And those teams will exceed the cap for two years before they reset.
I know it was a negotiation. Most people realize the players have actually lost ground in the past several collective bargain negotiations.
Most people realize the players have actually lost ground in the past several collective bargain negotiations.
That’s because they are stupid, and have stupid representatives. 20+ years ago, when they had maybe 54% of revenue, the owners offered to simply settle at that number. They players got in in the heads that they would never settle for a %. Since then, owners have signed much larger TV deals, have added gambling advertisements, streaming, etc. The players revenues have increased decently over the years, but the owners have increased exponentially.
Yet the players still hold out, and for absolutely no reason.
Joe, no cap in exchange for no guaranteed contracts would be an insanely stupid move for the players. That’s nowhere near an equitable exchange.
No cap and the international draft becomes a thing
The MLBPA has had no qualms with negotiating away amateurs’ rights before, so I don’t see why they would stop now.
JoeBrady as of today, 14 teams have revenue that would allow them to go over the CBT threshold every year and still be paying 50% or less of their revenue in 40 man roster payroll. A few teams like the Padres are showing that any team can do it for a year or two.
The fact that even the highest revenue teams that could easily afford a $300 million CBT payroll will only go over the cap for a short period shows that it is in fact a hard cap. Maybe not for a single season, but on average.
I just have a feeling that the Padres are going to overpay for someone at the deadline again.
They will most likely not get anyone again, and hopefully not fall flat on their face
This was my least favorite C S Lewis book.
It’s got nothing on the Voyage of the Dawn Preller, that’s for sure.
The Seller, the Preller, and the Albatross.
Astros Hot Takes
that is so good
Astros Hot Takes
Go Bo Mel
The Mets could be a good partner for the Padres. They are over the threshold anyway, so why not ‘buy’ a reliever by taking back Myers as well?
No thank you, as a Met fan, no thanks
Bull pen needs help,DH,1B,RF,CF and no money .With Hoz and Myers contacts what can you do . Don’t trade Abrams keep him over Kim for cost ,maybe trade snell but be selling low gonna be interesting
padres will trade some more good plays, just like they always do.
The Padres are the same as the Cubs were, the White Sox are, and others…….
A team trades away anything resembling a decent prospect for name / recently successful veterans. Does it for years. Hits the Luxury Tax (pseudo Salary Cap) level. Now they want to move some of the non-producing veterans, but no one wants them – let alone at their salaries – unless they attach some productive players that are under control and at reasonable salaries……players they cannot afford to give up.
How does anyone get a FO job not knowing this will happen?
Teams like the Astros, Rays, Guardians, Giants, A’s and in time Orioles are smart enough to ignore the agents this writer talked to; as well as the editorializing writers like these do stating: “That team doesn’t want to win. They’re cheap”.
This is not the government that can continue to print more money because it can’t stay on a budget. It’s more like a household where everyone cannot buy everything they want forever.
I like Dave Dombrowski and realize the awful situation he took over with the Phillies. But this year they’re paying penalties, and need to get back below the line. What’s he done so far? Addressed the preseason needs at 3B, SS, CF, and the bullpen by having the coaches and players work hard to improve. (That awful bullpen that he “did nothing about” recently retired 34 batters in a row.) None of them light up the statistical analysis this site does on individual players. That’s fine. What doesn’t show is those players that are kept are all improving, playing part-time when they can be most productive, and are doing the fundamental things to help the team try to win each game. The cumulative effect is far better them signing 2 name players then having one or both get injured or stop playing well.
Snell for absolutely nothing.
Snell for JHey
Wait that doesn’t make sense
Bloom should get Preller on the line. Seems like his kind of deal to keep hoarding prospects and use money/throw ins to get guys like Snell, Hosmer or Lamet.
Does anyone actually care that Eric Hosmer has not been a bad player at all for the Padres? He has a 117 OPS+ this season. And he is “only” making $13 million a year for three years after this season. And the most important thing about him is that he is a true EVERYDAY player. He almost never gets hurt. He is not a superstar by any means, but I don’t think he is as onerous a contract as some people want to believe.
Take him and pay half
If I was a team like the Twins or the Rangers or the Indians, I probably would.
Hosmer is atrocious
He had a really good April which is keeping his overall stats up, but his production has been dwindling ever since. His WRC+ in April was 194, and then it was 84 in May and 64 in June. That’s two months of significantly below average offensive production out of him.
I’m not saying he’s a bad player, he usually provides around league average production. It’s just he makes $20M this year and plays a position that adds no defensive value so that’s not really a desirable situation.
I disagree with you about the defensive value of first basemen. I know WAR calculations always take away from a player because they play first, but when you think about it a first baseman is arguably the third most important defensive player on the field after the pitcher and the catcher. Simply because they are involved in the most plays. If a team has a below average SS, there are far fewer errors than if a team has a below average first baseman. And a great first baseman can make the other infielders look better than they are. Up the middle defenders are sexy and make the pretty highlight plays, but first base is a very important defensive position.
SS and CF are extremely important. But a 1B does handle the ball more than anyone other than the P and C.
A bad 1B hurts a team tremendously. Puts more pressure on the 3 other infielders as well as the pitcher when he has to run over and cover a ground / bunted ball to the 1B in front or behind the bag. The Rays have been reeling this year from bad 1B play; the Angels when Duffy was played there; the White Sox with Abreu and Sheets (Vaughn should be playing there – he’s very good); and one or two others I saw that I can’t recall.
Ignore the bogus defensive stats for 1B. Hosmer is a solid, excellent, smart 1B. Don’t believe me – ask Bob Melvin and Keith Hernandez.
I have thought about it, and I don’t think first base is the third most important defensive position. If a team has a below average shortstop, there are far fewer balls that he gets to, so fewer outs are made. If a team has below average outfielders, lots of outs turn into singles, singles turn into doubles, doubles turn into triples.
A good first baseman certainly will save some outs, but a mistake typically means the batter reaches first base or maybe goes to second on a bad throw from the SS or 3B.
Pitcher defense is very different from pitcher pitching. Pitcher is probably the least important of all the defensive positions.
The balls that 1B are handling often are routine throws from MLB players. These are players who not only practice these throws often but are playing their respective positions due ro their ability to field and accurately throw the ball. Yes on occasion some of the throws are rushed or thrown off balance and take a bit more effort by the 1B. Those are the exception not the norm, the reality is and has been that 1B is the least significant defensive position on a baseball field.
“…..the reality is and has been that 1B is the least significant defensive position on a baseball field.”.
Read up on Branch Rickey. He disagrees with you.
The 1B has more responsibility than the 3B…..or the LF or RF.
He get smashes hit to him. Bad throws (try watching a game). Pick off throws. Charges bunts like the 3B. On ground ball outs that he gets if existing baserunners are rounding bases he may have to make a throw there. On balls hit down the RF line he’s the cut off man for runners trying for home. On throws from CF he’s the cutoff man between the pitchers mound an home plate.
Did you ever play any baseball?
This season alone Hosmer has made several boneheaded plays, most recently on Tuesday against Arizona, when he cut in front of the 2b and threw the ball into the back of the runner going to second. He turned what should have been an easy 4-3 putout into a loss.
WAR does not even take into account throws to the 1B. A 1B will take 10 times more balls thrown to him than he will field off the bat.
For years Hosmer was at or near the top in “Scoops” which is all about how well he caught balls in the dirt. In his time as a Padre, only Rizzo, Olson, and Freeman have been better than Hosmer at Scoops. The Scoops stat does not take into account throws to 1B that are in the air but offline.
Hosmer is also among the best in double plays started. Olson, Goldschmidt, and Rizzo are also at the top of that list.
1B do things that the defensive metrics do not take into account at all and those things are what Hosmer has always excelled at. He makes the other infielders look better and saves runs.
He is a slightly above average MLB hitter with a career 108 OPS+ and 107 wRC+. He is better than that with runners on base hitting .318/.389/.483/.872 and driving in 17.5% of base runners as a Padre. League average is 14.3% over that time period.
The problem with Hosmer is not his defense or his offense, its his salary. Fans think that his salary is keeping the small market Padres from making other moves. Even though that obviously has not been the case as the Padres have signed Machado and Tatis and brought on Darvish and Snell since signing Hosmer. If his AAV was around the $13 million he will make the last 3 years of his deal no one would even mention him in a negative light. On a big market team like the Yankees or Dodgers, no one would care what he was paid.
“League average” offense from 1b is below average.
During his time with the Padres, Hosmer ranks 39 out of 44 first basemen in wRC+. Drops to 42 by wOBA, The story remains true regardless of measurement. Guys in his 100 wOBA+ neighborhood since 2018 include such powerhouses as Adam Frazier and Brett Gardner,
I wouldn’t put much emphasis on scoops. It’s a counting stat, not a rate stat. Even a mediocre 1b can collect scoops if the rest of the infield bounces a lot of throws, it doesn’t tell you anything about how often they pulled it off. I mean, Hosmer has ten more scoops since 2018 than Justin Smoak, but he played 2500 more innings.
League average offense is just that, league average. It doesn’t matter what position you play. Now the stat includes the DH position too. Hosmer is above league average with the bat.
If you want to go with a rate stat instead of a counting stat, Hosmer at 1.57% of total throws is the very best in baseball since 2018 at digging balls out of the dirt. 2nd best is Rizzo at 1.554% followed by Olson at 1.551%. Again, “Scoops” only includes balls that bounced and not those that are offline and in the air so even that stat is incomplete in measuring defense at 1B.
When you talk to infielders that he has played with, to a man they say he is the best they have ever thrown to and has saved them many errors.
Hosmer is what he is, a slightly above average player that is getting paid much more than he should have been paid because the Padres needed a marquee name to draw players like Machado to the team.
As I said, if his AAV was $13-14 million, no one would be questioning his performance on the field. Not even you.
“Hosmer is what he is, a slightly above average player that is getting paid much more than he should have been paid because the Padres needed a marquee name to draw players like Machado to the team.”
No, what they needed to draw players like Machado to the team was a lot of money. Full stop. Machado wasn’t going to sign with someone else for less money if the Padres didn’t have Hosmer.
If you don’t think position affects offensive expectations, there’s really no point in continuing. Hosmer’s is easily one of the worst hitting 1b in all of baseball since he joined the Padres. Without crunching the numbers, he might be the absolute worst if not for 38 games in 2020.
Can you link to the rate stats?
Again, if the Padres needed a marquee name to draw other players, who was the marquee name that drew Hosmer to the Padres? Machado came to SD because we offered him the most money. He’d have come for the same offer whether Hosmer was here or not.
As for what players say…Machado started his major league career throwing to Chris Davis. Tatis and Crone have thrown to almost nobody except Hosmer. What do you expect them to say? FWIW, Wil Myers said Matt Kemp was the best he’d ever played with, and Myers played with Evan bloody Longoria.
If he was being paid 13M, he’d have been traded after his second crappy season with the Padres. Getting bad offense from a prime offensive position does not help your team win, regardless of cost.
@Pads Fans Are you ever going to use your Koamalu account again? Just wondering…
Cubs would take him. And have tried. Padres don’t want to include decent prospects to get the contract off the books.
Exactly. Any contract no matter how onerous it may appear is movable if the pot is sweetened enough. Myers and Hosmer are still with the Padres simply because they aren’t willing to add the right ingredients to the deal.
We used up a lot of decent prospects in other trades. Now we have a handful of high-end guys worth too much to use in a salary swap and much younger prospects too risky to be very attractive in this situation.
Two years ago we could have said “Pick 3 names from these 20” and teams would have knifed each other for the chance. Not saying it’s impossible now, just a lot harder.
Does anyone actually care that Eric Hosmer has not been a bad player at all for the Padres? He has a 117 OPS+ this season.
1-He’s not been bad for the Padres; he’s been awful. He has a 1.0 bWAR/650 PAs with the Padres. FG has his cumulative fWAR as an almost impossibly low 0.6 over 5 years.
2-His OPS+ is good, but that was based on a good April. In May and June, he has a .623 OPS.
3-He is only a regular because the Padres play him every day, not because he is any good. It’s like calling Heyward a regular. He plays a lot, but not because he is any good. And Heyward has been a much better player with the Cubs than Hosmer has been with the Padres.
All that said, if what you say is true, then why even bother trading him? That’s the conundrum for many trades. You need to figure out the motivation for the team selling. For a team with no apparent 1B replacement, you can’t make the point that the 1B they want to trade is good. Or else they wouldn’t be trying to trade him.
Throw out WAR for 1B. its not even a consideration because of what it misses on defense.
Hosmer has a 108 career OPS+ and 103 with the Padres.
All that matters is what it says at the end of the year, not for a particular month. If you want to go with ridiculously small sample sizes he has a 120 OPS+ the last 10 games.
Hosmer is a regular because he makes the rest of the infield look good by catching ball thrown to him as well or better than nearly anyone in baseball. THAT is the number one job of the 1B and he has excelled at it as a Padre.
The problem with Hosmer is not offense or defense, its salary. Period.
If he was making $13-14 million per year like he will the next 4 years we would not even be talking about him.
Hosmer’s wRC+ as a Padre “at the end of each year:”
109 (this year)
That is flat-out awful for a 1b. The average 10 over that span put up a 115.
I hope Hosmer regains his form / finds the leprechaun who granted him all those base hits in April. I hope he terrorizes the opposition not only this October but for the following three. It just ain’t very likely, and getting poor offensive production from a hitterish position makes it harder to even get into the postseason, let alone do any damage if you do.
If you disagree with know it all Pads Fans he throws out insults then mutes you.
MLB average OPS+ for 1B since 2018 is 105.
Hosmer has a 103 OPS+ during as a Padre
MLB average wRC+ for 1B since 2018 is 107.
Not sure WHERE you got 115.
Hosmer has a 105 wRC+ as a Padre.
He has been slightly below average with the bat as compared to other 1B, slightly above average overall.
The bottom line is Hosmer’s performance is not a problem. What the problem is, is his salary. At $13-14 million per year no one is even questioning his bat or glove. At the $21 million per season he has earned since 2018 its a huge topic of conversation.
Here’s the leaderboard for 1b from 2018 to now:
I changed the page to show 50 rows because at the default of 30, you can’t see Hosmer. He’s #39.
Add up the wRC+, It comes to 5077. Divide that by 44. It’s 115. Maybe you included players who didn’t get enough PA to qualify for batting awards.
@hiflew if you take out his incredible start, he’s been fairly mediocre since. Still a bit underrated though.
If you take out the best month of ANY player, they will likely appear fairly mediocre.
@hiflew While that’s 100% true, I think hot starts are often overlooked as players tend to regress to their norm. Pitchers and hitters weren’t really at their peak yet, and now when most players find themselves Hosmer’s hot start seems to be an aberration.
Maybe on average, but that’s a generalization that doesn’t always work for individuals. Look at Hosmer’s numbers by month:
March/April – 1.054 OPS
May – .654 OPS
June – .589 OPS
Since May his numbers are worse than mediocre. Plus that great start was fueled by a .439 BAbip. His problem is he’s an average to slightly above average guy that’s been paid like a perennial AS.
That’s not actually really true, if you look at Machado he had a 199 WRC+ in April, then 156 in May and 133 in June. You take out his April and he’s still like ~45% better offensively than the average player.
Even looking someone more normal like Profar, it’s 120 in April, 108 in May and 128 in June. So he’s like ~10-15% better than average without his best month.
Hosmer isn’t as bad as his current play indicates, but he’s also not good either. We have 5 years of stats on him playing in SD with a .739 OPS. Very league average offensive production at a high cost.
Not true at all. Take out the best month of Machado and he still looks like an all star. Same with many other players. Problem is, without his best month Hos doesn’t look mediocre, he looks like a guy who shouldn’t even hold a roster spot at AAA.
OK. I’ll admit that the top 2% of players would probably look about the same if you removed their best month. But even then their overall averages would still be lower. There are only six months in a season. If you remove the highest number from any group of six and then average them again, the number drops dramatically in most cases. Sure if you play exactly the same every month, it won’t change, but that is highly irregular for everyone.
In statistics it can be valid to drop outlier data from an analysis, but it has to be all outlier data, high and low. Cherry-picking data to reject isn’t valid. And the usual reason for dropping outliers is to reduce the influence of data measuring errors, which shouldn’t be a problem in baseball stats.
That’s always an issue this early in the season. There just aren’t enough outliers, usually. When that happens, I expand my sample count. If a player has had hot & cold streaks, I look at prior year numbers to see which sample might be more apropos.
Winker was terrible for 60+ games, but with a very good K/W. Based on his prior year numbers, I feel comfortable weighing his latest 9 games more heavily than his previous 67 games.
That’s the beauty of baseball and rotisserie. Everyone can draft. Not everyone can properly interpolate Wacha’s final 6 weeks from 2021.
“OK. I’ll admit that the top 2% of players would probably look about the same if you removed their best month. But even then their overall averages would still be lower.”
In other news, water is wet.
And Hosmer’s April was a pretty clear outlier.
Have you actually watched him play? He had a lucky April and then has barely kept above the Mendoza line since. And that’s costing us $20 mil a year. It’s one of the worst contracts in baseball. Only an idiot would think otherwise.
US is the one that gave him all that money to begin with, so US thought otherwise. Apparently you are admitting that US is an idiot.
Who is US?
Not even close to one of the worst contracts in the league…Bad yes..
A lot worse…a lot worse!
The main difference is, nobody besides Preller and Moore wanted anything to do with Preller. The other players all had multiple bidders.
If you track it by “cost versus competition,” Hosmer’s at the top.
You could add Corbin to that list.
“anything to do with Hosmer.”
Price one of the worst contracts in the league? Are you making this up as you go along? He’s a free agent after 2022.
Yes, but he has been being paid $32 million per year to be a low-leverage reliever.
Free agent after 2022. That is all that matters. He would have to be making over $100m in 2022 to be up there with the other guys mentioned.
The padres, LOL
James Wood seems like the most likely of the top prospects to be packaged in a salary dump. Something like Wood + Suarez + Myers in exchange for one can of beans seems pretty fair for both sides.
Jung Like My Daddy
Doubt the Padres trade Wood to shed the 12 mill or so remaining to Myers, especially since he is a free agent at end of the year.
If they’re dealing Myers as a dump they’re more likely to just attach a higher quantity of lesser prospects to a team in need of talent on the farm system couple years away.
Cubs come to mind as someone who could take the salary and ask for a quantity package that fits their time line for competing. They’re clearly in rebuild.
Athletics are in clear rebuild again
Angels and White Sox even.
The teams acquiring half a year of Myers are really just buying prospects in all honesty. More chances you have to hit the better.
I agree except for the mention of the A’s. I doubt they’d be willing to spend the money to buy prospects, but I’m nit-picking.
Jung Like My Daddy
I mean what the A’s SHOULD do is different than what they will do. It’s the A’s. Sometimes they look a gift horse in the mouth when you shouldn’t.
If I were the owner I’d sign off on bringing in Myers and his 12 mill in and ask for Eguy Rosario, Matthew Batten, and Korry Howell. Buy a couple of prospects who are close to MLB ready and have team control the next 6 somthing years when the A’s will trade them if they’re worth anything.
Have you checked out Wood? A bit raw and very young still, but perhaps the highest ceiling of all their prospects. Along with Hassell and CJ he’s probably not on the market at this point.
Wood 6′-7″ 240lbs CF who is not only a freak athlete but also a good defensive CF who will stick at CF… a better athlete than Winfield and Judge with similar size and power projection… Wood aint going anywhere…. The OF prospect that likely gets move is Huge power spec Mears…and not for a salary dump….
@Silvestre. Wood’s compact swing and upright stance reminds me a bit like Fred McGriff’s. Jackson Merrill is a big talent and likely top 50 prospect in the making, but as a SS who resides in an organization with a Disneyland of shortstops, perhaps he’s a significant future trade chip?
A better athlete than the guy who was drafted to play professional basketball, football, and baseball. A devastating offensive and defensive player who won MVP of the CWS as a pitcher.
No, just no.
Because the Padres are so thin at the top of their prospect list Abrams, Campy, Wood, Hassell, and Merrill are untouchable in a deal that only has the goal of lowering payroll.
To get a big time player with long term team control there may not be a prospect other than Abrams that is untouchable.
Wood aint moving for Myers dump
Padres can just trade Myers +$9mil cash for someone to take the lux tax $$ ..sort of a favor deal.. or include a very low 20-30 range guy like Tirso Ornelas…
They could also get creative and do a Josh Bell to SDP (just like Rizzo to NYY) where the Nats absorb all of Bells lux tax $$ in exchange for a couple mid prospects (Look at Rizzo to NYY trade)…
What I think will happen …Snell to TOR for Irv Smith + Luis Meza…
Then Padres will trade for Austin Hays/B Reynolds type OFer… in which they will include Lamets (and his $$ owed) and include one of their top prospects (CJ/Campy type) + another top 10ish spec like Acosta/or Mears…
A 3rd move maybe Lopez (Orioles closer) short history in pen very bad SP #s but absolutely dominant as a BP arm…at 29yrs old probably not in line with teams window… maybe a Wethers + Kowhley (AAA having a huge yr but starting to age out as a spec)…
But with Manny back soon.. Pomz/Johnson/Wilson/Adams/Baez all do back soon to the BP and Taris sometime after AS game…Padres don’t need to do much off the field… a Bat and Arm and a Dump/Trade…Lets Go!
The Orioles are not trading those guys.
They aren’t playing rotisserie baseball. They’re building a top flight organization. It’s starting to show this year. Remarkable pitching developed, solid at the 3 OF spots, 1B and C. A treasure trove of prospects in the minors. Loaded.
Their Baseball Ops guy isn’t an attention drawer. The national baseball media is out to lunch…….again.
I really doubt the Pads would trade CJ/Campy or one of their top OF prospects for an OF upgrade (unless it’s uberlike Soto!). Especially with 2023 OF of Tatis/CJ, Hassell Jr, Ruiz looming, and Wood and Mears knocking. They might go for a 2022 rental but with Myers and Tatis returning before the trade deadline, and Profar’s solid play, maybe the dont.
No they are not trading a leaguewide top 100 prospect to dump Myers. Myers may be overpaid and suck but he’s gone after this year even without trading him.
Thank god you’re not the GM. Wood has an incredibly high ceiling and would be incredibly foolish to dump just for salary relief.
AndyWarpath James Wood is one of the three “least”’likely to be including in a salary dump.
Abrams/Hassell/Wood are basically untouchable.
A 6’7” LH athletic power hitter who can play CF?
Are you kidding me?
He’s a LH Aaron Judge….he isn’t getting traded for any reason….let alone just to move $$ around.
A LH Aaron Judge? The kid is 19 and in class A. Let’s not go crazy comparing him to the probable AL MVP.
I live 1/4 Mile from LE Storm stadium..I can tell you 1st hand Wood and Merrill are as close to MLB locks as one can project at A ball.. these 2 dudes are head and shoulders > their teammates and the opposition players they’ve face.. you can screen shoot this and bring it up circa 2024/5… Merrill looks like a bigger version of Crone Zone… Woods looks like Daryl Strawberry with Jim Edmunds type Defensive skills and more range left and right than perhaps anyone I’ve ever seen..those quick jumps and long strides from this “freak” make him a vacuum cleaner to ball hit to left center and right center
No mention of bringing up Esteury Ruiz as an option to add some offense?
Nomar Mazara has been good since his promotion….Ruiz has been nothing short of incredible.
My guess they try this option before trading for OF help.
Could certainly make room on 40 man easy enough(Alcantara).
I’m surprised nobody made mention of Luis Campusano, one of the Padres’ top prospects. He has a .900 OPS in 500+ PAs in AAA over the past two seasons and is currently hitting .333 in almost 200 PAs.
Last year and all offseason Padres fans kept insisting Campusano would be tied to Hosmer in any deal to get him and his contract out of San Diego. Hosmer’s AAV drops significantly next year IIRC, so I can’t imagine they get rid of him at this point. But either way, Campusano would seem to be a big trade chip to utilize if they wanted to. Several places still see him as a top 50 prospect.
Drops from 21m to 13m.
No one cares about Hosmer’s salary dropping from $21m to $13m.
I seriously doubt SD has any intentions of trading Campusano. I think Hosmer would be gone already if they were willing to attach Campusano. He’s their #2 prospect (according to Fangraphs), is close to ML ready, plays a premier position at catcher, and has a 55 FV. Teams would be lining up to take Hosmer if it meant acquiring Campusano. I don’t think very highly of Preller as a PBO, but I doubt even he would do that.
@tad2b13 I don’t really disagree at all. It’s more a question to me of letting a top prospect effectively languish in AAA with not much else to prove. He’s young and the Padres clearly aren’t in a rush, particularly since Alfaro has seemingly become a great hitter out of nowhere. My guess is unless Camp has a disastrous Spring Training, he’ll be on the opening day roster next year.
Yeah, that’s a good point that I overlooked. Still, if SD were to trade Campusano, it wouldn’t be as an an attachment to move Hosmer. If they’re going to trade him I think it would more likely be to a catcher needy team in the off-season for equivalent ML talent. That is if they’re happy with Nola and Alfaro going forward.
But has Alfaro learned to catch, block balls in the dirt, or throw accurately? If you can’t catch, it’s not really gonna last.
I’d rather we let Nola go than Campy. Never understood why we traded for him when we did.
At the 2020 deadline, Hedges had a 64 WRC+ and Mejia, somehow, was at -10. Yes, -10.
Nola’d put a 114 OPS in half a year’s worth of work in 2019 and was at 151 in 2020 before the trade.
It’s absolutely fair to question the price we paid (“Tell me what an overpay looks like” said Preller to Dipoto).but not our need for a catching upgrade.
Don’t know the Braves $ situation but if doable this looks like an AA situation. Take Myers since they need OF help and get a good prospect.
Braves have $140 million on the books so they have plenty of room to add more salaries.
Leaving Esteury Ruiz in AAA is basically a crime, especially with Grisham doing nothing. It’s like the Padres don’t want to try to compete.
Ruiz is a 2b.. What do you do with Cronenworth and who plays CF?
Ruiz is CF in AAA
54 games in CF between San Antonio and El Paso this season. 7 games in RF and LF and 7 games as a DH.
He raked in AA San Antonio and that is more impressive than hitting in the PCL.
Hosmer, Snell and Pomeranz for Patrick Corbin and Josh Bell.
Padres have a plethora of talent in the minors that’s unheralded to add to their squad or trade from. The situation isn’t as dire if they stand pat it just depends on scouting the system and the right call up at the right time.
Not sure about that plethora of talent. Their system isn’t bad, but has really thinned out. Their farm was ranked #2 prior to the 2020 season. last pre-season it was 6th. And most recently ranked 17th. I seriously doubt they want to do much dealing from the farm at this point.
Padres have nothing in their minor league system, nothing.
If they did they wouldn’t have signed Cano, and then Mazara to try and fill holes. Anybody with a pulse could get a callup into that bullpen right now, so the fact that noone is getting the chance tells you all you need to know.
Lol tell you don’t know anything about their system without telling me you don’t know anything about their system.
Pads have Hassell III, technically still have Abrams (because we all know he’ll be back in AAA soon enough), Campusano, Merrill, Rosario and a few others who will be decent MLB players. Sure, they’re no longer stacked like a few years ago, but they have plenty of good talent. You’re just making yourself look stupid and ignorant.
Exactly.. Pads have some of the best position players in the game in their system..
Cj/Campy/Hassell/Wood all top 100
Merrill/Rosario/Acosta/Mears/ all have a shot at top 100 after the season
Susana (Pitcher) 6′-6″ 240 17 yr old is a Top 10 mlb spec in waiting
They also have some ready for MLB talented guys like Estury Ruiz/Kowhley/Batten/Rooker/Reiss K/Knerr
And Wilson/Kerr/Reiss K/CJ/Gore(just graduated from spec) have all made mlb contributions ..with Gore a legit ROY front runner atm…. I say that’s a pretty good system..
AJP knows how to draft and how to sign Intl players.. even with some purging of the prospects I’m trades.. he retooled fast and has a draft and Intl signing to refurbished the system
One decision a very bad one is my only beef with AJP.. the trade for NOLA… that was brutal.. the rest for the most part have been normal mistakes/good trades to outright steals..Tatis trade /Alfaro for $$ trade/Rogers trade/Brad Hand trade to SD from Miami…etc..etc..
Preller loses trades far more often than he wins them. I will say he’s probably above average at drafting. Haven’t looked at the stats to back that up tho.
Snell to Seattle makes the most sense IMO, Seattle has tried to trade for him multiple times and Jerry had stated he loved he was homegrown (from Seattle area), they also need a veteran bat now to play 1B/DH especially with Ty France out for now. Add in significant payroll flexibility – trade Snell and Hosmer to Seattle for Haniger once he is off the IL.
Snell for Toro a RP and salary relief
100% agree Vector. Makes tons of sense on both sides.
I wouldn’t put anything past Preller. Before the season he was able to get Manaea + Rogers and still stay under the threshold by moving Paddack and Pagan’s salary and having the Twins pay for most of Rogers.
It’s frustrating to me that the Padres are “frustrated” by Snell’s lack of performance but publicly gargle Eric Hosmer’s balls every chance they get despite the fact he has had the greatest negative impact of any player in franchise history.
Hosmer is grossly overpaid, but still worth 1 bWAR this year while Snell has been worth -0.5 bWAR. I think Snell deserves the criticism more at this point.
But there’s hope that Snell can get back on track, and was good as recently as the second half of last year. Hosmer is what he is at this point, has been for years, and has no hope of ever being anything better. That’s the difference.
The right deal and the right prospects could cause ownership to open the coin purse. How much remains to be seen. That said, once Machado and Tatis start playing again, they have the ability to ease some of the offensive burdens the team currently has…
I think this is much ado over very little. Once Tatis returns, they should put him in CF, use Kim at SS, and maybe platoon Grisham/Myers in RF. One could argue in favor of trading for an upgrade in RF, 1B & DH, but I don’t think it is dire. They aren’t quite black holes, and every team has some similar holes.
The Padres currently have the 5th best record in baseball despite their lack of offensive production. They also have one of the best hitters in mlb, far better than anyone available for trade, coming back soon. A Ruiz/Grisham platoon in CF and Tatis in RF will add TONS of offense. Oh, and getting one of the current MVP favorites, Manny Machado, back should help too. But sure, tell the Padres what garbage, POS, underperforming players you are willing to package for Snell or top 100 prospect James Wood.
Jung Like My Daddy
Yeah Padres are fine long as everyone stays healthy.
They should unload Myers, Stammen, and Johnson’s money to bring in some bullpen relief as guys have been relied on way too much early on due to injuries to the pen. Could use some fresher more reliable arms down the stretch.
Bring back old friend Matt Strahm maybe in a deal for Kike Hernandez if they dont bring up Ruiz or he struggles
Wily Peralta of DET makes sense too.
But the OF will be fine with
Tatis Jr in RF
Grisham/Ruiz or Azocar in CF
Mazara/Azocar or Ruiz in LF
Profar should move to a super utility role playing 3B, 2B, 1B, OF to give guys days off.
Machado, Kim, Cronenworth, Hosmer rounding out the INF
Maybe bring in a RH bat to platoon with Hosmer at 1B against lefties. Donovan Solano of the Reds comes to mind as a rental who could be used against lefties at 1B.
@Jung – Prying both Strahm and Kiké away from Boston will come at a steep price to SD, plus it will push SD well over the CBT which SD is trying to avoid at all costs. Boston has cemented itself in the playoff race now, so they have no need to take on Myers and lose Kiké as they like Kiké much better than Myers even with his slow start to the first half of the season.
One deal that Boston might entertain is a Wil Myers for JBJ & Strahm offer. This deal will not provide any salary cap relief to SD but it could be salary cap neutral, allow SD to get a decent bullpen arm back and vastly improve their RF defense too. Boston would get a better hitter in Myers (vs JBJ) but would lose a semi-important bullpen arm and a key defensive player in the OF who can also play an above average CF. Plus, Myers is hurt right now so who knows how long it will take to recover from his knee injury. Given that the deal skews in SD’s favor, the Padres would most likely need to include a prospect or two for Boston to bite on this deal, but it is a reasonable proposal that both sides might consider.
Another option could be Myers, Lamet and a B-level prospect to Boston for JBJ & Strahm. Boston has always been intrigued by Lamet but both his & Myers medicals would have to be fully scrubbed before making such a deal.
Personally I don’t think Tatis is coming back until late August/early September, if at all. They keep pushing back his date, and then who knows how effective he’ll be when he returns from an injury to such a key area? Tatis was an idiot, but he already got paid so maybe Padres were dumber (especially as they didn’t even get a discount).
Yeah, there’s a lot of confidence that Tatis will immediately be himself when he returns. He made near-miraculous comebacks from shoulder injuries before, but the wrist’s a different animal.
Tatis’ AAV is $24M, with the contracts being tossed around, if he can somehow get and stay healthy, I know that seems like a lot to ask, that contract will be quite a discount.
Snells not that bad to me just padres pitching has to be so perfect with padres lineup . With Hosmer I would hope he gets hot so someone will bite on taking on some of that contract
If SD is willing to eat $6M per year on Hosmer’s deal, securing him for 3 years and $21M ($7M/Yr) might be attractive enough for some team to bite. The new CBA doesn’t force the acquiring team to pick up the full, average cap hit for Hosmer anymore, so he would only count $7M per year against the cap in 2023-2025 for whomever acquires him. San Diego would retain the residual CBT cap hit (less the $7M/yr) plus the extra $6M cap hit for paying down some of his deal. The one issue remaining is Hosmer’s remaining 2022 salary which I believe is much higher than $13M for the full season. The Padres would have to eat a sizable portion of that as well.
Hosmer is underrated
And we’ve got it all covered. One of these answers is bound to be true.
I know, let’s talk about Hosmer some more
As a greeter at the Desert Inn? Sure. As a baseball player? No.
The padres should stay put and hope tatis puts a huge band aid on the rest of the lineup. Some of the hitters like Grisham have a chance to bounce back in the 2nd half of the season. Elite pitching and elite defense and timely hitting may be enough
Yeah, I agree with this. Their farm system has been thinned out. No one seems interested in taking Hosmer or Myers, and I don’t think SD wants to lose the prospects it would take to move them.
The only thing that makes sense to me is for them to blow past the lux tax, but if ownership isn’t willing to do that, then standing pat seems like the right move. I mean they do already have a ton of talent on the roster as it is.
Padres fan here – watch them every day. Somebody is going to want Snell down the stretch because of his Cy Young pedigree. Maybe can package Kim too, because contenders need the defense and “some pop,” as they say (very little tho). Hosmer and Myers would already be gone if they could be gone. When Tatis comes back, Abrams could play 2nd sometimes and Cronenworth 1st sometimes. But seems we are stuck with Hosmer and Myers playing here for another year or couple years and then released. If I were making their money with their lack of promise, I would pitch a tent too.
Can’t trade Snell unless they get Luis Patiño and Cole Wilcox back.
Also little point in trading for Manaea just to turn around and trade Snell.
How do you end up spending so much money that you are against the tax and still start a couple of Texas Ranger retreads in the outfield?
AJ Preller that’s how.
This guy makes one horrible move after another. His most recent is probably paying Tatis before he had to, it will probably cost him Joe Musgrove.
Giving Machado the opt out after year five is going to come back and bite him in the @ss too..
That roster is so littered with terrible contracts:
The deal they did with Clevinger has basically turned into taking $11.5m out in the street and setting it on fire. Which is exactly what the Garrett Richards deal was, but some people never learn.
The Martinez deal is just like the Profar one in that the only way you get the player long term is when he doesn’t perform, and then you are forced to pay him. Awesome contract.
Really hoping that ownership’s recent hiring of Melvin, Niebla, Williams, Schildt etc is a sign they are tiring of Preller. Those are great baseball dudes and hopefully one of them can drop some hints into ownerships ear.
Texas Rangers retreads? You mean the 2 above average hitting OFs they have? Being among the top 5 teams in baseball is also an epic fail, right?
Yeah, Texas Ranger retreads. Mazara is 67 AB into the season, prior to that he has never, NEVER finsihed a season as an above average hitting OF.
Profar has a lifetime OPS+ of 93, or another way of putting it 15 points lower than Hunter Renfroe. Matt Beatty has a higher lifetime OPS+ than Profar.
Renfroe and Beatty were both traded or released by three different playoff teams in the last 2 seasons. Yet here are Padres fans, grateful they have Profar locked up to a long term contract.
Retreads are sometimes bargains. Not the most strategic time to criticize Preller for pulling Mazara from the abyss (and essentially free) given his 134+ OPS. Profar is at 120+ OPS. You forgot Tex retread Alfaro 130+..Who cares what they did in Texas? One of the best measures of a GM is to see talent/value where o5hers don’t and maximize it. Preller hasn’t always succeeded at this, but your Texas Retreads example doesn’t make your case too well.
Forgive me for being skeptical, Ian Kinsler, Christian Villanueva Mitch Moreland and Jayce Tingler will do that.
Alfaro seems like a good player and decent guy.
Even if you like Profar’s work this year, his contract is ridiculous.
Only the idiot fanbois are happy about Profar. Everyone else at the time was wondering what the hell Preller was thinking? Sure, we’d have liked him back as a bench bat at a reasonable price, but my god did Preller bud against himself. Absurd contract for someone basically nobody else was interested in.
Profar’s contract aside, every GM in the league would want a GG-level LF with 120OPS+ and 0.351 OBP, 18-20 HRs and 85 RBIs.
True, but those same GMs would not have wanted the Profar who posted 2 average offensive seasons before 2022. They certainly wouldn’t want the 2021 Profar, he of the 85 WRC+ with only 23 XBH and poor defense.
Profar’s been really good this year, and I definitely didn’t think he had it in him, which is why I yammer on the internet rather than making real baseball decisions. But Preller thinking Profar could play like this doesn’t excuse him overpaying by ~30%.
Agreed. Players develop at different rates though (look at Jorge Lopez now!). And while I cringed at Profar’s contract deal, I’m also willing to retort against claims that he’s just a worthless retread. I also don’t credit Preller much for seeing it coming, that goes to Profar for the work he’s put in and hope he keeps it up.
$6mil Profar is ridiculous? Goes up to $8 next yr (if he doesn’t opt out) and $10 in 24… his WAR this year will cover the entirety of what Profar is owed til 2024..unfortunately he is having a great year and will opt out…and then he will get PAID.. besides Judge and Nimmo… Profar maybe the 3rd best OF in FA this offseason ..ahead of Beni/Comforto/Myers and Gallo…+ Mazara playing himself into a nice offseason deal as well… not really a good year for OF FAs…
What was ridiculous was giving him that 3 year contract based on 56 games in 2020, His entire career before that he’d managed 3 fWAR.
Profar was a DFA candidate before Preller traded for him. A nice 2020 wasn’t going to put him in high demand, certainly not to the point that you give him a contract that, like the Martinez deal, lets him opt out AND get money from you to do it.
He’d have signed for 2/8 with a team option and thought himself lucky.
How do you end up with one of the best records in baseball?
AJ Preller, that’s how.
Only took nine years, four managers and the second highest payroll in baseball.
If they keep it up they might actually make the playoffs this year. #winning.
To be fair 6 of those years were by design.. the plan after the failed owners push to piece together a roster in 2015..was to sell off rebuild Farm and compete by 2022 before ramping up in 23.. because of the Machado signing and the fast development of Tatis the team is a yr ahead of schedule if not 2yrs.. 2020 (shortnseason) made post season.. 2021 (monumental collapse after being one of the best teams in baseball) exposed SP/BP over use and Managers short comings.. Health (Clev back) development Gore/ FA Martinez and trades Rogers/Manea and the hiring of B Mel addressed all those issues…
If that was the design, they don’t sign Hosmer in 2018. They had Myers to be the “face of the franchise” and “proof of financial commitment.” They knew much better FA than Hosmer were going to be available before their planned window.
Preller’s usually a smart evaluator of talent (every GM misses sometimes) and he seems to be fearless. Every so often, a little fear or business sense would really be useful.
“Really hoping that ownership’s recent hiring of Melvin, Niebla, Williams, Schildt etc is a sign they are tiring of Preller. Those are great baseball dudes and hopefully one of them can drop some hints into ownerships ear.”
B I N G O !
Appears you’re one of the few here that gets it.
The new majority owner has ties to the O’Malley family and went about to keep Preller in his lane. Change does not come overnight. Preller’s voice is getting dimmer and dimmer (and I wrote all this last offseason when I saw the people they were bringing on after the new owner asserted himself).
The Padres can win the NL West this year with what they have and a little tinkering. This article is speculation and sensationalism (as per usual). The only thing about it that deals with reality is when the author cited an agent that said the Padres were not going into the Luxury Tax. That’s all that needed to be written.
Giving Machado the opt out after year five is going to come back and bite him in the @ss too..
The opt-outs are one of the ways you entice someone to play for a team that was pretty bad when he joined. That said, while he is still a real good player, he’ll likely start to decline in 3 years.
The deal they did with Clevinger has basically turned into taking $11.5m out in the street and setting it on fire.
Put Clevinger on waivers, and he’d be claimed in two minutes. He’s not without risk, but as a RS fan, I’d gladly take on Clevinger’s salary + Lamet’s salary off of your hands.
The Machado opt-out is a disaster for the Padres. If they were worried about hum declining they could trade him for prospects. They simply don’t NEED the opt-out to save them from Machado’s decline years.
Clevinger has exceeded my expectations thus far. Still a free agent after 2022 tho.
You don’t give Machado the opt-out, he either doesn’t sign with SD or gets a lot more money.
Sunshine’s a decent bet to stay. He seems to like SD and has a great relationship with Niebla.
Not giving Machado an opt-out would have cost the Padres some money but not a ton. They were already the only team that met his and his agent’s pre-free agency demands of a $300m+ guarantee.
“Sunshine” will sign with the highest bidder just like 99% of free agents ever. And the Padres didn’t have to trade for him first to be that highest bidder later on.
Player options are, in almost every situation, a way to lower the total cost. Of course Preller does seem to hand them out like Halloween candy
Not saying Clevinger (or Musgrove) will take any significant discount to stay. But both of them seem more likely to re-sign as long as the money’s in the right ballpark. Musgrove’s ballpark keeps getting bigger, though.
And they would have signed if the money was in the right ballpark if the Padres never traded for them in the first place.
On Machado, how much extra would you have given him upfront in exchange for him not being able to opt out?
Here’s the thing though, Machado doesn’t opt out in 3 years, he does it next year. If the market warrants more than 5/150 he gets to walk away. He will be in a position to drag out a contract if a team wants. So an offer of 8/200 or 7/175 etc he’ll have no problem with it. Universal DH is in play, which will help get a guy like him extra years.
Manny’s agent set it up and the way Machado is hitting this year it looks like he has put in the work, the opt out was a minor deal when he signed but it sure looks like Manny’s side knew just what they were doing.
Opt-out is never a minor deal
If the market warrants more than 5/150 he gets to walk away. He will be in a position to drag out a contract if a team wants. So an offer of 8/200 or 7/175 etc he’ll have no problem with it.
But those aren’t really better contracts than the remaining $150M/5. Your two suggestions amount to an additional $50M/3 or $25M/2. Barring catastrophic injuries, in 5 years, he should still be worth $25M/2, and maybe/probably worth $50M/3.
If I were both Machado and SD, I would simply add a 2-3 year extension.
Machado already demonstrated a preference for term over AAV the first time he was a free agent. 7/$175m wouldn’t be worth opting out but 8/$200m just might.
Very articulate, well thought-out comment VirginiaGiant.
VirginiaGiant isn’t taking a shot at the Padres so much, as the resident troll of Giants articles, FakeTonySD19, and the tired “LOL Giants” shtick. Unfortunately it will be lost on the troll, since FakeTony isn’t a Padres fan, and doesn’t comment on their articles.
You are correct sir! Thank you!
Snell was one of the best pitchers in baseball for the last month of last year. He also has a history of turning it on for the playoffs. But I’m sure the Padres would love to trade him because…why again? Because the replacement level players being offered for him are soooo tempting? I think not. Teams don’t trade from their strength, which they have needed, for nobodies. Especially when they have 2 of the top bats in MLB returning to the lineup.
As far as the luxury tax is concerned does anyone on Earth think the Padres would let a few million in lux tax overages prevent them from going all-in on a World Series?
Padres will trade him because buy high sell low. If you have any other questions call Adam Frazier.
This. Preller is a bull in a China shop at the trade deadlines. Whatever he does we’ll regret it by October. I used to hate the trade deadline as a Pads fan because we’d never do anything, now with Preller at the helm I hope we do nothing.
Is not the going over that Padres care about..is in the not resetting the Lux Tax by staying under in 2022..then can blow past it for 2023 … but if they go over in 2022 they are screwed for 23 etc… resetting the payroll lux tax is priority #1… they will find a way… Mazara has played better than any RF available to this point..With a healthy Tatis/Machado they can carry a Grishman ..and Hos can just go on an April tear in October and no one would care.. he’d be a god..God… in any case one bat /one BP arm – one SP.. +2 -1 players shouldn’t be too complicated…anything more than that I wouldn’t recommend as it can mess with Chemistry..and Chemistry is a big part of baseball…
First off, when a team is playing as well as the Padres so far, with an opportunity to win it all, they should go for it, lux tax be damned. They’re never going to win anything if they’re worried about a few extra million dollars.
Second, exceeding the threshold doesn’t screw up 2023. There are plenty of moves they could make in the offseason to mitigate that. Plus, their payroll commitment for 2023 is $141.5M. The 2023 threshold will be $233M. That gives them $91.5M to work with.
Who knows what will happen in 2023. The wheels could fall off, and by not going for it in 2022, they could be passing up their best shot at a WS title.
Problem with the luxury tax isn’t the overage tax. It’s the associated draft pick penalties. Padres didn’t sign any QO free agents or QO any of their own free agents last offseason so it didn’t matter much. But with Joe Musgrove and Sean Manaea being locks for QO’s this offseason and possibly Mike Clevinger and Jurickson Profar as well, exceeding the lux Taz and having all those picks lowered by 2 rounds is a huge deal.
The associated draft pick penalties kick in only by going excessively beyond the threshold. The Padres would have to be $40m over the threshold to have those picks lowered. To my knowledge they aren’t close to that.
That is for having their first rounder lowered 10 spots. If you exceed the first threshold and lose a free agent you QO’d the comp pick is after round 4 instead of round 2.
Most of the “trade Snell” talk misses the looming inning limits on Gore and Clevinger. If (fingers crossed) Musgrove, Darvish, and Manaea stay healthy, you still gotta find the innings of two full-time starters for the rest of the year.
Snell drives every Padre fan crazy, Melvin may need to get creative about piggy-backing him. I’m sure Preller would love to get a more reliable arm. But moving him in an effort to upgrade elsewhere, without also bringing in a SP, is walking a tightrope.
The thing that stands out most in this article is just how poorly Preller has done in the free agent market. Almost without exception the signings he’s made have been constantly injured, ineffective and/or hugely overpaid for the production they bring. Machado is perhaps the only exception. Is there any other GM in baseball with such a poor track record in free agency?
And Machado’s contract will 100% be underwater this time 2 years from now.
I agree. I was surprised when they promoted Preller and signed him to an extension. All his moves draw everyone’s attention to the Padres, and maybe that’s why ownership likes him. But I wouldn’t be happy if I were a Padres’ fan.
He hasn’t done that bad in FA tobbe fair… nothing like Angels ..
Hosmer was a bad FA
Machado was a great FA signing
Martinez was a great FA signing
Suarez was a solid FA move
Mazara was a great FA pickup
Kim was very good . Excellent Defense and WAR suggest $15mil + value… he is making 1/3 of that
Profar (resigning ) was genius.. his $$ is so good he is likely to opt out… 3rd best WAR in baseball for LFers
Martinez was a good target, but the contract is beyond stupid. The team took on all the risk.
Profar’s done well….this year. Last year he was a complete waste, and nobody else was going to give him more than a one year contract, let alone a 3 year deal that, like with Martinez, lets the player leave if he’s good but sticks the team with him if he’s bad. Preller bid against himself, like he did with Hosmer.
Don’t forget James Shields in the list of FA busts. It matters not at all that Preller traded him for Tatis. He could have signed Tatis out of the DR or made a different deal entirely, Shields had almost no value.
There are very few examples of utility guys who bounce around the OF and IF with uncertain playing time while putting up big numbers. We shouldn’t be too surprised by Profar’s improvement at the plate (and GG-level defense in LF) that has come with consistent playing time. His OBP over 0.350 is especially impressive.
It’s not common, sure, because if you’re a good hitter they’ll find a spot for you. But in 2019 he got 518 AB with Oakland, more than 400 as a 2b, and was less valuable than he’s been thus far. He played in 137 games last year and was futile on both sides of the ball.
What he’s done this year has been northing short of fantastic. He might even have been a tiny bit UNlucky, which seems crazy.
I know he’s often sucked in the past, especially in Oakland, and even last year, but his play this year seems legit by all metrics. I’d sure hate to see the Pads replace him with a more expensive player who might not be much better, and that’s the only point I’m trying to make. Another commenter said they felt the worst Padre trade of recent years was the Nola deal, but I’d say it was Frazier – they expended value for a guy they didn’t need at all, rather than address bigger needs (SP late in 2021). They could use another depth piece in the OF, and a veteran bat off the bench, but I’m not sure this present RP staff is going to come together or get healthy and hope they bring in a reliable arm there.
Oh, absolutely. Profar is not smoke and mirroring his way to success in 2022.
By contrast I don’t trust Mazara to keep it up (look at the difference between his wOBA and xWOBA, with all the usual SSS concerns), but maybe he does.
Thank you for pointing out that trading Shields for Tatis doesn’t justify the Shields signing because they could have signed Tatis out of the DR in the first place or traded someone else (like Cashner or Friedrich) to get Tatis.
And before someone tries to tell me Cashner and Friedrich had no trade value, look at who they traded Tatis for in OTL.
Frazier trade was more pointless than anything else. From a value standpoint the Clevinger and Nola trades were way worse.
Martinez and Profar were terrible signings, not because of their abilities or levels of play but because of the opt-outs after every season. The only way you get to keep them is if you don’t want them.
The Padres are currently 1 of the top 5 teams in mlb. 3 of the 4 other top teams are outspending the Padres. They seem to be right where they belong with those contracts…on top.
Padres are good team get some guys back . I’m happy fan as this is way better than last 50 + years of penny pinching Go Padres
They need the NHL Long Term injured reserve to free up some cash.
Padres fans are iffy about Preller — as in, if we win this year. If the Padres go fairly deep into the playoffs, which they might until they meet the Dodgers, fans will think Preller is great. But to me the criticisms I’m reading here about Preller are on point. Yes, he’s gotten us some good/great players — Machado, Tatis, Musgrove, Darvish, Rogers — but also some doggie ones, and the money and contracts overall do not match the value. And also, he is the one who hired our last two managers — a minor leaguer and a mid-level Texas Rangers corporate guy, for the love of god! So yeah if you compare him to the GMs of teams with winning traditions, he does not stack up though he spends the same amount of money. But then, San Diego is not a city that demands excellence, because we’ve had so little experience with it…
Was the “some doggie ones” comment referring to Jacob Nix?
The door is open for Nix make a reentry into relevance assuming he can get over the threshold
No, I think it is you who got whooshed lol
So Preller overpaid for Profar, Kim, Hosmer, Myers and Pomeranz (and many more), then cries poor and seemingly won’t improve the 5th best team in baseball- who also have gotten nothing from their best player to boot
Hard not to laugh at their “predicament.” Anyone with half a brain saw this happening. Shocking, yet funny, that Preller still hasn’t figured out that most elite teams add talent during the year
The Padres are one of the top teams in mlb, have an excess of pitching, will be welcoming back a leading MVP candidate in a week and one of the top bats in MLB in a month or so. They ARE adding. Far more than your Dodgers will be adding…unless you trade for Juan Soto+. 🙂
Yea, becuase Preller is the one who improves his team every deadline and Friedman is the one who sits on his hands
It’s a guarantee the dodgers add something at the deadline. The padres, just like last year, have to get someone to take their garbage so they can then go shop in the clearance aisle
He didn’t overpay for Kim ,Profar ,Myers thier contacts are good He did back load Myers contract that has affected current payroll . Hosmer signing was just to long and yes overpaid .
He didn’t overpay for Kim ,Profar ,Myers thier contacts are good
If Myers has a good contract, then I assume you are in favor of picking up his $20M option?
The total was ok for 6 years 83 million wasn’t that bad he had a 30 hr year in there .yes it’s a bad contract the way it was structured at the end. If it was 3 million last three years and 20 million first 3 then it would have been good .and of course they won’t pick up the option
No, the Padres were not going to pay Myers $20m/yr for what would have been his 3 arb years.
It’s predicated on him continuing to post 3+ WAR seasons.
1st arb year, based on players who performed like Myers in 2016, he’d get between 4 and 5M. The arb estimator on this very site pegged it at 4.7.
2nd arb year, using Kole Calhoun a comp, 6-7M. Calhoun was a Super 2, so his 2017 salary would have been his second time through arb had he not signed a 3/26 deal.
The comps for “good position players in their final arb year” are harder to find, but you can see Hosmer and Todd Frazier both predicted above 13M! That was despite Hoz laying an egg in 2016. They both signed for 12-ish.
If Preller was projecting Myers’ likely arb salaries, 4-6-10 would have been right in the fat part of the graph. Would they have actually paid him that had they gone year to year? No, he fell off a flippin’ cliff in 2017 and 2018, but Preller couldn’t have known that. His extension offer had to account for what Myers was likely to earn. .
Preller absolutely overpaid for Myers. The point in extending a player before FA is that the player gets more security and the team gets something of a discount. On the risk side, the player risks leaving money on the table if he’s great, and the team risks making a more informed decision by waiting.
Myers got the security and took the risk that he might make more going the traditional route. Preller bet that 2016 was the beginning of a trend, not a highpoint, but he didn’t make up for it with a discounted cost. He just dumped the savings (a 2M salary for 2017-2019 is vastly less than what Myers could reasonably expect) into the three FA years.
Preller, SUCKS BIG TIME, 230MM. and no outfield.
The Padres have one of the best records in baseball.
This comment basically embodies the Padre fan. The belief that noone but Preller could spend 230mm on payroll and have them in contention.
After all the spending and supposed farm talent their fearless GM had ammased they sit 1.5 games behind the Dodgers, have no outfielders to speak of, a bullpen cracking at the seams, will lose 4 of their 7 starting pitchers at years end. And Padres fan is fine with all of this.
I’m confident that a guy who spends his time trolling a comment section has no idea what “embodies” and entire fanbase. The padres are a good team- enjoy it!
The Padres are currently paying less per win than the Dodgers, Mets and Yankees. Unless you think all of their GMs suck as well then you are just a Preller hater screaming into the void. Continue.
Playoff appearances since AJ Preller was hired by the San Diego Padres:
Dodgers- 8 (EVERY YEAR since Preller was hired)
Padres- 1 (in a shortened season)
The White Sox have made the playoffs more times than the Padres since the Tatis trade. Think about that.
Why does anyone think AJ Preller should be anywhere near an MLB front office?
I’m not sure you’re correct on that
4,471,650.5 – Yankees
4,736,925.61 – Padres
Regardless, you’d have a point if all you care about is this year, but as mentioned above, the Padres are set to lose quite a bit of talent after this year. So yes, enjoy paying less per win than those teams and hope it all works out this year.
Just get to WC and get ambushed is good season for Padre fan
I do think we have been poor at building a complete team. There’s a handful of guys on the team that don’t belong here that are way overpaid.
The Saber-toothed Superfife
This article screams, “Fire Al Avila” and/or, “Hire the Superfife”!
No pity from me (a fan of a team that come near that in payroll)
I’ll take Hosmer on the bosox if they eat $25mil of his remaining contract.
Start drawing up the paperwork
I would consider it. He drops to 13 million next year which is reasonable.
Not for San Diego, the CBT is total salary + signing bonus divided by the number of years. CBT tax will not go down because his base salary goes down, CBT will be the same for Myers,, but if he is traded his new team will only ta a 13 million dollars CBT hit. next year.
No chance. Even adding in $25M, his annual cost is still $5M a season. And he can’t play. I would play Dalbec, or Cordero, or Casas over him.
$25 mil covers the coast of his ‘24 and ‘25 seasons. They pay him $13 mil next year to bridge him to Casas and then release him if he’s not performing or keep him if Casas is struggling.
Backup Catcher to the Backup Catcher
Promote Esteury Ruiz and play him every day in CF. Would certainly provide a little spark to a line up that, without Manny, is very frustrating to watch.
The Phillies haven’t had any worthwhile production from CF since Odubel Herrera’s second year in the bigs. Maybe they would take a shot on Grisham? At this point, the Padres would be happy to give him away for a bowl of Hershey Kisses.
Myers? Gonna have to eat that cheese. Nobody wants him. Might as well wait until he’s healthy and hope he can help somewhere (Short side of a platoon with Hosmer at 1B?).
If we win anything this year, it’s gonna have to be spearheaded by our pitching. Sure, getting Tatis back sometime in early August will be nice, but there’s no telling how much rust as to be shaved away until Tatis is Tatis again.
I don’t wanna trade Snell.
Gallo for Snell?
Lol Gallo for Lamet is about as much as NYY can hope to get.. right now a Happy Meal for Gallo might be an overpay
The Blue Jays might help with the money end. They need bullpen help and at least one of the moves is going to be a buy low one. They’ll bet on stuff over results more often than not. They need help sooner than later so might be willing to take Lamet earlier than waiting for the deadline. They made an early move last year to give Miami some salary relief.
They are also most vulnerable in the rotation. Only their opening day rotation and swingman Ross Stripling have made starts. They haven’t had to hand the ball to their AAA depth yet and it feels pretty weak. Nick Martinez would be a nice flexible piece. Not sure how much the player options get in the way, but there has to be a way to value them.
Fortunately, Myers and Lamet are gone after this season. Also, Hosmer drops to 13 million, which will save the Padres 35 million in salary.
I’m pretty sure Hosmer’s salary still counts as 18M against the CBT for the next three years, so no saving relative to the threshold. If they could trade him, the acquiring team’s CBT hit is only 13M.
With the 35 million, they need to resign musgrove, mana, etc. so half of that budget is gone to resign their own talent
Snell is having a down year. If not for past injuries you would really wonder did the Padres trade for a potential ace or back of the rotation starter.
Sometimes changing sceneries helps so I was suggesting the Pads have no cap space, trading Snell not only opens up sone space this season but also next. Gallo while he is still a gold glove caliber corner outfielder with tower to tower power he has regressed so much with the bat that a change is needed as well. Would the Pads take Gallo whom there GM loves and move Snell contract . Both players maybe better with a nice. The Yanks can add on a young major league ready arm like a Domingo German coming back from injury to replace Snell in the rotation but the Pads rotation is very deep as it is. The Yanks have a few arms shuttling up and down so maybe one of them not ned Clarke Schmidt can be in the deal?
IRT Snell, I think the “downness” is a bit overrated. There are two things to consider.
1-His peripherals suggest that he has pitched a lot better than his ERA.
2-The quality of his opponents is pretty high. Philly 2x, Mil, StL, NYMs, and CO (home and away).
Assuming he is healthy, I think the downside is a #3 SP, with the upside being a good #2, The salary is not cheap, but there is a reasonably good chance you’d re-coup a draft pick with a QO.
If I were the RS, I’d ask about him. IMVHO, once Snell hits some weaker teams, his numbers will improve quickly.
Again, they simply can’t trade Snell unless they get back Luis Patiño and Cole Wilcox or something like them.
Just blow the budget. We need another Yankees-Padres World Series.
Never say No thanks to a WS, but the next time the Padres make it, let’s not run into another juggernaut.
84 Tigers, first team to lead the division wire to wire. 104 wins, 15 wins ahead of the Blue Jays in second. Every starting position player a league-average hitter or better. Lowest ERA+ among the SP? 98.
The 98 Yankees made the 84 Tiger looks malnourished.
53 years and 1-8 in WS play winning 3 playoff series total not counting Mickey Mouse years it’s the juggernaut excuse
Grisham had one post trade hot stretch and has been overrated going on two seasons worth of ABs.
Promote the Ruiz kid, give him a month to see if his bonkers AA and AAA stats hold water before spending money and or prospects.
Trent Grisham has not been the same since he showed up Kershaw that one time 2 seasons ago
Remember when Padres fans were yipping about being in first place? That was funny! Lasted 2 days………HAHAHAHA!
They are 1 game out with half a season to play. HUGE GAP! START THE FIRE SALE!
I can see a Snell to Seattle trade.. RP Swanson + OF spec Delouch maybe another spec.. helps with our BP gives us another OFer to challenge for 2023..Rooker/Ruiz/Kowhley/Delouch
After Profar opts out… only returning OFers at the moment are Grishman and Azocar..
I’m sure Mariners waiting for that phone call lol
So minimum time to see Tatis on the field for the Padres is 24 days plus the time in a rehab assignment. Realistically the beginning of August. 2 months later than expected. The lockout sure screwed things up for the Padres.
Pretty sure Tatis could have had surgery, even though he couldn’t contact the team’s medical staff.
If he’d suffered appendicitis or been in a regular non-idiotic car accident, he wouldn’t need permission to get the appropriate treatment.
Without the lockout, yeah, the Padres could have said “Get that thing fixed.” But Tatis could have paid the best orthopedic doctor in the DR, or flown to see pretty much anybody in the world, who would have told him it needed surgery.
I anticipate a trade with the Cubs. One or both of Happ/Contreras. The Cubs may take back Myers to get some extra prospects.
Why would the Padres want Contreras when they already have Alfaro, Nola and Campusano?
Yeah Happ is the Cubs match with SDP..Contreras maybe was 40 days ago but both Alfaro and Nola have played C and hit as good as anyone’s C’s have.. I think the are #3 in OPS since May 27.. only Blue Jays and Cubs >
This is why ignorant Padre fan that says “who cares it’s not your money” are fools.
By the way.. Padres # 26 Matt Batten on his way to LA to join the Pads… 299 .399 .504 .903 think the dude earned his promotion… not on 40 or 26 so I think Alcantara being DFA-d… Good luck Rook!
Batten 27-year-old rookie. I’m a little surprised. He can play every position (including catcher and pitcher if necessary), but he’s primarily an IF so youre probably correct about Alcantara.
Confirmed Alcantara DFAd.. this could possibly lead to a Kim trade be it at Deadline or in offseason if Batten proves a capable utility player.. Kim ($7mil) would get very little playing time when Tatis returns… and Padres would be willing to move him if Batten (minimum) can handle all IF positions and hit better than Alcantara and Kim… if Tatis is not healthy and playing by the deadline I am not sure about moving Kim..but if he is and Batten hits anywhere in the .250/.320/.400 range ..then Kim $$ would be a no Brainer for an upgrade trade… Kim’s big 2022 WAR # and control would make him a sought after player by both sellers and buyers
Batten is supposedly good defensively so he could stick. But I doubt his promotion signifies a trade in the works, when Tati returns I’m guessing Batten is sent back to El Paso, unless he’s outplaying CJ then maybe Abrams is back in AAA. The idea of Kim as a trade piece is interesting but I’d be surprised. Most of his WAR comes from defense.
.214 career hitter owed 21 mil after this year yea teams will be falling over themselves for him