The Guardians hit the All-Star Break on a high note, sweeping the Tigers in a weekend series to pull to 46-44. Coupled with a slump from the Twins, Cleveland moved within two games in the AL Central standings and pulled to within 2 1/2 in the Wild Card race. They’ve outscored opponents by five runs over the course of the year, about what one would expect from a team that’s two games above .500.
Slightly above-average play is enough to hang around the playoff picture, particularly for a team in the sport’s weakest division. The team has done enough the front office is likely to explore ways to add over the coming weeks, particularly if they hold their own during the next three series. Cleveland comes out of the break with sets against the White Sox, Red Sox and Rays — each of whom is a direct competitor in the Wild Card race (with Chicago obviously also a division threat).
The Guardians have been a middle-of-the-pack team in most areas. They rank 17th with a 99 wRC+, with their .249/.314/.384 slash line checking in a percentage point below average. They’re a matching 17th in runs scored (391) and in rotation ERA (4.00) and strikeout/walk rate differential (13.4 percentage points). The bullpen and defense each check in around the back half of the top ten by most metrics.
Despite their generally well-rounded nature, a few positions stand out as areas for possible upgrade. Like most contenders, they could look to add some help at the back-of-the-rotation. Aaron Civale has been hit hard and went on the injured list last week after spraining his wrist; sixth starter Konnor Pilkington has struggled, and Zach Plesac has been just alright over the past two seasons after his excellent 2020 showing. There’s room for a back-end pickup, particularly if Civale is set to miss an extended stretch, but the Guardians have an abundance of pitching prospects and a strong developmental track record that could reduce their urgency to play for a top-of-the-market arm.
On the position player side, both center field and catcher have been offensive black holes this year. Neither seems like an area the Guardians will feel they have to address, though. Myles Straw signed a long-term extension just last winter. He’s not hitting, but he’s at least playing excellent defense that’ll keep him towards the bottom of the order on a regular basis. That’s even more true of Austin Hedges, but Cleveland has long prioritized a catcher’s work behind the plate than what he does at it. They’d probably be interested if the A’s made controllable defensive stalwart Sean Murphy available. A deal for the top rental, bat-first Willson Contreras, feels less characteristic, although one can make an argument for the Guardians to make an earnest pursuit of the Cubs backstop.
Even if they sit out the center field and catcher markets, the Guardians should be in on the top corner bats available this summer. They’ve gotten decent production out of the corner outfield, with rookies Steven Kwan, Óscar González and Nolan Jones all hitting the ground running. Cleveland doesn’t have to push any of them out of the lineup immediately, but there’s enough uncertainty with each that regression in any case wouldn’t be a huge surprise. Kwan has settled in as an average hitter after an otherworldly first week. González, who has missed the past three weeks with an intercostal strain, has solid numbers and obvious physical tools but has chased over 40% of pitches he’s been thrown outside the strike zone through his first 32 MLB games. Jones has an excellent minor league track record but just ten games of big league experience thus far.
Each of Kwan, Jones and González (when healthy) has done enough to stay in the lineup, but adding a complementary veteran with a longer track record would still fit. In the near term, that player could step in at designated hitter and cut into the playing time of Franmil Reyes, who is having by far the worst season of his career. Through 243 plate appearances, Reyes owns a .216/.259/.357 line. He’s hit eight home runs but is striking out at a 39.9% clip that ranks as the highest rate of any player with 200+ trips to the plate. That’d be insufficient production even were he bringing other value to the table, but it’s particularly striking for a player who’s primarily limited to designated hitter duties.
There are reasons for the Guardians to hold out some hope for Reyes to get back on track. He’d been an above-average hitter during each of his first four big league seasons, including a 37-homer campaign back in 2019. He’s still posting huge exit velocities and hard contact numbers, no surprise for a player of his strength. Reyes is swinging and missing more than ever this season, but he’s never been a good contact hitter. He’s thrived in the past in spite of strikeouts based on his power, and his numbers have ticked up since he returned from a three-week injured list stint. After hitting .195/.255/.278 through mid-May, Reyes owns a .245/.265/.468 showing over the past month.
He’s still struck out in 40 of his 98 plate appearances since returning, however, drawing only three walks over that stretch. With the Guardians right on the fringes of contention, they may not be able to afford him too much leeway to cut his swing-and-miss to more manageable levels. Adding a veteran bat would allow manager Terry Francona to reduce Reyes’ immediate playing time while guarding against regression elsewhere around the diamond. An outfield-capable player may be ideal given the limited track records of González and Jones, but were the team to add a DH/first base-only type, Reyes himself could be a corner outfield option if he can get on track. Josh Naylor has been excellent at first base this season, but he entered 2022 with an inconsistent MLB track record. As with the outfielders, there won’t be any thought of replacing Naylor right now, but some insurance in case he tails off in the second half could be welcome.
As far as potential targets, Josh Bell is one of the game’s most obvious trade candidates. The Nationals are sure to move him, although the Guardians could balk at taking on the approximate $3.9MM remaining on his salary from the deadline onwards. Trey Mancini is having a nice year and would draw interest if the Orioles deal him, but Baltimore’s recent run of solid play at least raises a question about his availability. The Marlins could fall far enough out of the picture to deal Garrett Cooper, who’ll only make around $1MM for the stretch run and is arbitration-eligible for a final time next winter. The D-Backs are willing to trade Christian Walker. He’s not much costlier than Cooper and can be kept around for two more years via arbitration.
None of that group is likely to require an overwhelming prospect return, and the Guardians abundance of pitching prospects and upper minors infielders could allow them to part with an interesting player or two from the middle tier of the farm system. None would burden the long-term payroll outlook, and they’d go a long way towards fortifying a solid 2022 roster that finds itself right in the thick of the playoff race with two and a half months left.
Voit for Franmil swap?
Oh God, as a padre fan, PLEASE
Bongchow!
As noted Cleveland needs a starting pitcher. They also could use a young Catcher to back up Hedges and be available in 2023 as Hedges will be a FA and Naylor may not be ready. I proposed a trade of Amad Rosario to the Phillies for Garrett Stubbs as the Phillies need help at SS as they compete for a WC. Cleveland has an abundance of SS’s / 2B’s that they need to play to find out what they have in them – Rosario is blocking them..
As for hitting – obviously Reyes will not be with the team in 2023. Cleveland needs to play their young corner OF’s and INF’s as there are even more coming up in 2023. Same as SS – they need to get a handle on what they have and how they’ll play at the ML level.
If they make the playoff’s (the ALC is so weak they’ll have to win the division) it really doesn’t matter; it would take a miracle to win the first round and they surely aren’t getting out of the 2nd round.
They have a young catcher already at AAA named Naylor who looks to be ready next season.
Thanks for straightening me out.
I mentioned him in the 2nd sentence.
Then why even mention trading for a young catcher if you knew about him already? Why trade for something you don’t need?
ohiodevil 2;
Because all young players are not guarantees…..especially pitchers and catchers.
Garrett Stubbs has been around. He’s not a “young catcher”….he’s a younger catcher. Naylor has not been around.
Worse yet – Hodges is a FA after the season. He’s 29 years-old and in his peak years. A starter for years. Do you think the man will commit to a contract when his playing time can be taken by a rookie? There goes his earning power. So lets say he leaves for a team that will start him 70-80% of the games. Then lets say Naylor starts, is over his head and messing up the pitching staff…..and the Guardians are built around pitching. What do they do? Play Luke Maile or someone like him?
It’s not a matter of winning, it’s a matter of keeping your pitchers in line.
The approach would be to break Naylor in if he’s ready – and I’ve heard contradictory thing about that. Bringing in a guy like Stubbs to share the position is a way to assure that all pressure is not on Naylor his first year. They had a lot of young middle infielders. They brought in Rosario and Gimenez, Now that some have gotten some ML experience they can move Rosario to give them and others more playing time.
Bo Naylor is having a strong season reaching AAA at age 22. He should be part of the Guardian catching team in 2023. I can see them signing Hedges to help teach him the ropes in Cleveland. I don’t see Stubbs having the experience to back up Naylor.
Completely agree, HJ. Hedges would have no problem coming back, being a part of this team and playing 35-40% of the time. There aren’t many teams out there who will pay him starting wages at this point in his career and CLE is not the type to lowball valued veteran role players who’ve exhibited leadership and know their place on the team.
It would be a bold move to trade your starting SS in the middle of a division race.. since they have Freeman and Arias in AAA, they’d probably would be willing to do it but they’d need a compelling offer. I can’t see them trading their starting SS for a backup catcher.
Yes, the Phillies might have to sweeten it some.
But I’ve seen Garrett Stubbs quite a bit. He can run a game, handle pitchers, play D, and even hits well. I could see him being either the starter or the guy sharing the Catching position in 2023. He’s playing for $700k and is not a FA until 2027. There’s a chronic shortage of qualified Catchers in MLB.
Rosario will be a FA in 2024. However, I don’t see him with Cleveland in 2023 because of their young SS’s (which includes Andres Gimenez and Brayan Rocchioas as well). Then again, Rosario may be the guy to get them a starting pitcher this year, as many teams other than the Phillies need a SS.
@Samuel
A “miracle” to win the first round? It’s a best of three in a sport where games are never worse than 60-40. I hardly think it would be “miraculous” to get past anyone in a first round.
Similarly, a “zero” chance to get to the ALCS is absurd when all you need to do is play one above .500 in a seven game stretch.
I find it humorous when someone so wise in so many areas of baseball acts like the MLB postseason is akin to the NBA or NFL. If there’s one thing we know, there are no certainties in baseball.
Nats would love them a young pitching prospect for Bell.
I hear Joey Gallo is available.
Cleveland needs a hitter. That leaves Gallo out.
No one wants that crap. guy would be hitting below 200 in Korea league
“We want a Batter not a broken ladder”
No way on God’s green earth is CLE trading for a SP no matter what the perceived need. Yes, they do need at least one proven bat who can generate consistent production and help cover the stink of Straw and Hedges’ lack of production. The only way I see them making a move is if they can include Reyes in a deal, but unfortunately I think the likeliest scenario is they don’t acquire anyone who will make a difference. That’s just the reality today in CLE.
It’s an absolute waste of Ramirez to not get him some help.
They are in the freakin’ race. Go over and bother Angels fans who have Ohtani and Trout. Ramirez wouldn’t have signed long term with a team which has averaged 90 wins over 9 years if he felt he’d be wasted.
Walker should be the target. Can play 1B or DH and allows them to play Reyes or Naylor in the OF but also provides a power bat if the Guardians decide to trade/non-tender Reyes this winter
Due to his gruesome injury from last season, Naylor will not see the OF. It is 1B or DH.
Rsox;
Reyes cannot play the OF. Period. Plus they’re playing Owen Miller some at 1B.
As I tried to write above: They need to give as many AB’s to their young players as they can. I believe either Antonetti or Francona made a statement to that affect this past offseason when they were asked about making moves, and they said they’d be going with their youngsters. Nothing has changed.
If they trade Rosario Miller could slide to 2B and Gimenez to SS. Cleveland needs a power bat other than Jose Ramirez. And honestly acquiring Walker isn’t going to take AB’s away from any meaningful young players
Assuming they move Rosario, you’re correct. But the calculus is simple: is Walker playing 1B 20% of the time add more than the loss of Rosario 100% of the time and the gain of Miller playing 100% of the time at 2B. I don’t think CLE will consider the calculus that favorable.
But you’re correct in concluding that dealing Rosario is the key to real structural change on the team. I don’t see them moving off of Reyes because of his unique skill set, his ability to carry the team if he got hot, and not wanting to deal him at his nadir. So, if not Rosario, they’ll probably forego any major lineup changes and try tinkering at the edges of the rotation and pen.
Trade Franmil for whatever you can get. Move Naylor to DH. Trade for Garrett Cooper. He’s been hitting .300 all season. I’d really like to see them get Merrifield. I know he’s not having a great season but he fits this lineup perfect with his style
It’s Conforto time
Tigers hit 3-4 outfielders they can have (trade for)
They should?
A guy like Josh Bell fits very well on the surface, but even with them being a few games back of a playoff spot, this team shouldn’t be in the market for rentals. Walker or Cooper would be great fits, especially Walker.
The more likely scenario is the Guardians packaging a few of their prospects for a controllable hitter with All-Star potential. They have a 40-man roster crunch because so many of them were protected last year, and they have 8 prospects in the most updated top 100 list on MLB.com (not that those lists are the final word, but still).
They have a deep enough system and enough of a need for lineup depth that they can afford to throw a huge offer out there for someone like Bryan Reynolds or Ketel Marte in case their teams can be convinced to take a huge haul back for them, even if it’s unlikely.
I can also see them shooting a little lower and aiming for someone like Varsho or Ramon Laureano that still has control and would be an upgrade even if they’re closer to solid than elite. They have a lot of options.
Agree with your premise, but packaging prospects at this point might be premature.
They have a glut of young SS’s / 2B’s, and are about to have a glut of young corner OF’s. Who’s to say that they might be trading more than one future All-Star in a package for a player that’s a potential All-Star.
Arizona people on here are negative on Ketel Marte as anything other than a DH. His D has disintegrated. Everone loves Bryan Reynolds but they’d only be getting 2+ years of control, and he’s not as good a defensive CF as Straw. In turn the Pirates would want 3 prospects – 2 of them top drawer.
We read here a few years ago about all the Padres can’t miss prospects. Now we’re inundated with how wonderful the Yankees prospects are; and of course the Orioles have brought some players up and are bringing more up shortly. However, other than those that follow Cleveland I don’t believe fans here understand how stocked the Guardians are. I could see them moving Rosario, Naylor, and Reyes before 2023 just to get 40 man roster spots open. And I agree with you that moving 2-3 for one will have to be done, but probably not for another year yet.
Cleveland will move Rosario, likely move Reyes, but I don’t see them moving Naylor.
You make fair points too. The only reason I think they’d need to do it now is to alleviate the 40-man logjam because they’ll have to protect a few more guys this winter and I get the impression that there was supposed to be another shoe dropping when they protected everyone last year but the lockout changed their plans.
I agree that they’re not competitively ready to go all in, but if they get someone still young enough to be a part of their core, it’s worth it. I love a lot of their prospects and would love to keep all of them, but in reality it makes sense to cash in while their values are still high. I wouldn’t trade guys just for the sake of clearing space, but if you can consolidate some roster spots, sell high on your prospects, and get a player who can help you for several years, I think you pull the trigger.
Cleveland doesn’t have to trade their so-called “glut” of prospects for help on the major league roster. They can alleviate this alleged Rule V crisis by dealing prospects needing protection for those who don’t. They can also deal sideways, dealing two or three prospects in areas of depth for one or two prospects in areas of need. I don’t mind CLE overpaying in these kinds of deals because the cost is low and prospect control is maintained. On the other hand, I regard it as a waste of assets dealing good prospects for major league rentals or players already in arbitration. These types tend to be costly in acquisition terms, compensation, and in lost opportunity for young guys in the system.
I’m sorry, but I’d rather risk the loss of prospects in Rule V than try and figure out ways to make 3 for 1 or 4 for 1 deals for guys who may or may not be helpful during their short tenure.
I also find it humorous that Anthony Franco floats all these possibilities in this article–need to add this guy or that guy–but not once does he posit how the subtraction would manifest itself. There’s nothing less constructive than saying, “Add Trey Mancini!” without thinking about how it would actually work. Franco just says play Reyes less, but that doesn’t work. Either you get rid of Reyes at his lowest value possible or you don’t. Either you send Jones or Gonzalez back to the minors or you don’t. Either you shut down Naylor or you don’t. You can’t just say, drop Clement or get rid of Owen Miller. You can’t add a guy who can only play 1B and get rid of your backup infielders or other players you want to give time too. The whole premise of Franco’s article is flawed without also discussing how it affects the playing time or roster presence of the other guys on the active roster. It’s a zero sum game and he’s merely talking about the adding. Hey, that’s the easy part. Now try the subtracting and tell me how it all nets out.
The xxxxdians will always be a middle-of-the-pack team.
And you’ll always be a middle-of-pack fan.
“Fan” does not equate to “blind shill”, many of whom were ONCE AGAIN scrambling to protect their geriatric queen after his latest tactical blunders against the White Sox last night.
He trash, and the sentiment is growing. Just search for “Francona” on Twitter – people are getting wise to this charlatan in droves. The apologist media and shill drones may cover for this guy but the pressure is ramping up, and he will be on the hot seat he should have been on for years soon enough. He is pathologically incapable of quitting his harem of AAAA fail star BFF’s like Shaw.
The day the front office grows a pair and fires Shaw into the sun will be a glorious day indeed. Tito will be IN SHAMBLES.
LOL! If you say so.
Cleveland needs to jetison Reyes now. All he’s doing is blocking their MLB ready outfielders from a spot in the lineup. Naylor to DH, at least until he fully recovers from last year’s horrific broken ankle-leg, Jones (drafted as a third baseman) to first and Gonzales in right. Grow with that lineup instead going with the rally-killing Reyes, batting of all places, cleanup.
The assumption that Nolan Jones–a rookie trying to adjust to major league pitching–should be tossed a first base mitt in the middle of the pennant race and told to figure it out–is so preposterous that it invalidates the rest of your comment.
The Cleveland baseball team will not make a meaningful august trade and that includes trading Rosario for a catcher now. Reyes has declining 2022 value. They won’t trade him now. Truth is the white Sox will control the second have and a wild card shot remains unlikely. Winter 2022 spring 2023 will be when the roster is set.
Tribe will only contend if the White Sox continue to shoot themselves in the foot. Sox were prohibitive favorites going in and it’s to Cleveland’s credit that they’ve gone toe-to-toe with Chicago and Minnesota and held their own. I think Cleveland will continue to get better in the second half, acquisition or no, but they can’t control what the White Sox do. If that team can overcome its unexpectedly lousy hitting and predictably crummy defense, their pitching will make them difficult to stay close to. But I expect Cleveland to keep giving them fits.
Straw isn’t hitting much but can we at least compliment him on his much improved approach at the plate?
If he was hitting like .250 (not a stretch at all) the dude would be looking like an all star leadoff guy. Coupled with Kwan hitting second?? Any manger would love to have two players like that causing problems at the top the lineup.
We? You are employed by the Cleveland baseball team?
No. By “we”, I mean me and the mouse in my pocket.
Are you an Ohioan that is angry they aren’t called “Indians” anymore?
No not an Ohioan and not a CBT fan. I do think “guardians” is a woefully stupid name.
What does the CBT have to do with anything? Also, how does your question about if I work for the Cleveland franchise relate?
Why even reply? You made a stupid joke then honestly answered a question made in jest
“Woefully stupid” agreed. I think the name should be more racist. Like “wetbacks”. To really show the ohio spirit. And the Hispanic players on the team should be forced to play on separate (….but equal) field
It’s surprising, because after the year he had offensively last season, I figured Straw had turned a corner. He turned a corner alright – into a blind alley. At least he’s very strong defensively.
There is zero reason to want Straw at the top of the order. He’s perfectly suited for the ninth spot. Why anyone would want Myles Straw to have more plate appearances than Steven Kwan or Jose Ramirez is beyond me.
As a Cubs fan who watches most games (although maybe not in the second half – oof), I don’t get why everyone is down on Contreras from a defensive standpoint. The only thing he does not do well defensively is frame. But even the best framers steal a few strikes per game; it’s not the end-all, be-all it might seem to be. But he has a cannon, and a quick release, calls a good game, and above all has a very high character. He’s simply passionate about winning. I’d take him as my starting catcher over most receivers, with the exception of Realmuto, Will Smith, and maybe one or two other guys (not counting first-year players or prospects). That said, he’s a rental, so the Cubs won’t likely get a better return than they got for Kris Bryant, which wasn’t bad, but no top 100 prospects.
I hope Chaim Bloom gives the DBacks a call about Christian Walker. A couple years of control left, according to this article and seems an upgrade at first base.
Drop him and his power into the lineup and it might be the difference.
Might give team morale a lift.
It doesn’t matter who they get – their manager will ensure that once again they choke prolifically in the postseason if they ever manage to get back there. You can set your clock to it.