The Twins have floundered down the stretch, losing 15 of 21 games this month to fall to 73-77 entering play Friday. They’ll need a strong finish to avoid a second straight losing season, which is certainly a disappointing outcome for a team that was 11 games over .500 in May and sat at the top of the AL Central as recently as three weeks ago.
Despite the team’s abysmal final month, Minnesota chief baseball officer Derek Falvey made clear the club had no plans to make a change atop the dugout. Speaking with reporters this afternoon, Falvey stated that the possibility of replacing skipper Rocco Baldelli “never even crossed my mind” (relayed by Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com and Aaron Gleeman of the Athletic). “Rocco’s our manager. He’s my partner in this all the way through,” the Twins baseball operations leader said. “Rocco’s a big part of our future. Not just next year, but beyond.”
Baldelli has occupied the manager’s office at Target Field for four seasons. First hired over the 2018-19 offseason, the former MLB outfielder reportedly received a four-year guarantee that came with multiple options. It isn’t clear whether the club plans to simply exercise a 2023 option in his existing deal or renegotiate a new contract, but Baldelli’s in position to lead the charge for a fifth season either way.
While the past two seasons have been underwhelming, Baldelli led the team to AL Central titles in each of his first two years at the helm. Minnesota’s 2019 team set the all-time record for home runs in a season en route to 101 wins, although they were promptly swept by the Yankees in an AL Division Series. The Twins went 36-24 during the abbreviated 2020 schedule but again were swept in the first playoff round — this time at the hands of the Astros. Minnesota entered 2021 as at least co-favorites with the White Sox to take the division again, but they posted a 73-89 season that dropped them into last place.
On the heels of that awful 2021 campaign, the Twins reloaded with an aggressive offseason. Minnesota stunningly signed Carlos Correa to an opt-out laden three-year deal in Spring Training that featured the highest average annual value ($35.1MM) for any free agent position player in history. The Twins also acquired Sonny Gray and Chris Paddack in March trades while adding Chris Archer and Dylan Bundy to the back of the rotation via free agency. The aggressiveness looked as if it’d paid off early on, with Minnesota seizing an early division lead. They doubled down at this summer’s trade deadline, bringing in Jorge López and Tyler Mahle.
Unfortunately for the organization, the roster overhaul wasn’t enough to overcome a brutal stretch of late-season injuries. Minnesota has been without Byron Buxton for a month (and announced this evening he’d undergo season-ending knee surgery). Jorge Polanco has missed nearly as much time, as has Mahle. Left fielder Trevor Larnach and catcher Ryan Jeffers have been out for multiple months. Gray has been on and off the injured list twice this year, while Minnesota lost Paddack to Tommy John surgery and was without mid-rotation starter Bailey Ober between May and mid-September. Former top prospects Royce Lewis and Alex Kirilloff again lost much of their seasons to injury.
That’s certainly not to say all the Twins’ struggles are attributable to poor health luck. Minnesota entered the season with a rotation reliant on Paddack, Bundy and Archer — all of whom had serious injury and/or performance concerns in the recent past. The bullpen has blown 26 leads, tied for sixth-most in the majors. While the club has hit well overall, they’ve underperformed with runners in scoring position. That’s presumably not a trend they anticipate continuing over multiple seasons, but it has contributed to the team ranking 17th in runs scored despite being 12th in on-base percentage and 11th in slugging.
Minnesota figures to be in for another active offseason as they look to get back on track. Correa is likely to opt out of his contract in search of a longer-term deal. If he departs, as many anticipate he will, the Twins would have to decide how to proceed at shortstop. They’ll also need to overhaul the bullpen and could look into upgrades in the corner outfield and at the back of the rotation. Besides Correa, the club will see Gary Sánchez, Michael Fulmer and Archer hit free agency and is likely to buy out options on Bundy and Miguel Sanó.
Dang it, means Falvey will be back
I think it’s the right move.
Fire the Dynamic Duo… they have had 6 years… we had better in the 2000’s and the new leaders can fire baldi… Just deserts for firing Molitor for nothing
Seems like yesterday that Baldelli was just a young pup coming up in the majors..
We’re getting old fast ::sad face::
I had the chance to hang out with him in NYC a few times when he was with the Rays. Good dude! A friend of mine owned a few Manhattan nightclubs.
Their issues lie in the fact that a) they have a horrible track record at developing their own pitchers so they have to rely on free agents which hasn’t gone well for years and b) they don’t do the little things well especially running the bases. And nerd boy Rocco doesn’t do his bullpen any favors by continually yanking his starters when they’ve gone through the order twice. When you ask your bullpen to constantly cover a minimum of four innings per game, it’s no wonder that they wear out so soon. With a 13 pitcher limit, you can’t have the same two or three guys pitching every damn game.
Its all by the numbers …. their analytics doesn’t care how well a pitcher is pitching that day… they look at the past and take that it will be today…. they can’t see the reality of the game… in the moment … after all baseball is a situational game… and that situation changes each day…
someoldguy;
You’ve touched on why the Rays are so successful – winning consistently with primarily no name players.
Comes a time it’s best to stop worrying about how the depth chart looks – whether it’s good enough for the next 2-3 years. The manager uses his 26-28 man roster to try to win the current series and each game in it. Analytics will help show how best to use the players on the roster in match-up’s against the oppositions roster each game. Meanwhile that series is being played, the FO is researching who the best players are to have on the roster for the upcoming series. Most of the endless transactions we see during the season are not because a player is hot or cold or whatever – it’s because they’re the best the organization can bring in to be on the roster to compete in the coming series.
As I noted elsewhere, manager Terry Francona and the FO has Cleveland peaking yet again in September. They’ve done that every year he’s been there when they had a competitive team (at times they have to back off and do a quick rebuild). This is how the winning organizations do it in any professional or major college team sport. All are playoff leagues – teams need to play their best in the stretch run and playoffs.
How many players have he Twins and Rays swapped?
Rocco back means the Twins will be more unwatchable. I’m not up for games that go more than three hours.
@Samuel … you can’t run the train between the majors and AAA for every series as you claim. The new CBA allows players to go up and down only five times in a season and, once they’re sent down, have to stay for a minimum of 10 days (15 for pitchers) unless they’re replacing someone on the IL or are called up as the extra player for a doubleheader.
But they don’t even usually look at how *that player* had played in the past, it’s usually “this is the leaguewide average outcome so let’s apply it like a blanket policy”
They’re idiots and they all need to go
phantomofdb;
No, not with the good teams.
Depends who the “they” is…….
The teams that understand their players capabilities (which their coaches can stretch and build up), then have as line on the oppositions players as well as their analytics do quite well. It’s not just the Rays. Add in the Dodgers, Astros, Guardians, Orioles, Jays, and Brewers when they have enough quality players on their roster. All teams do it some some degree. The above do it best.
Teams that strictly platoon because a position players hits – or doesn’t hit – lefties or righties are not what I’m talking about. It’s specific. We have LH batters that hit LH pitchers better (as well as RH). Pitchers that have reverse splits. Players that hit or can’t hit certain pitches that the opposing players throw. Managers and their FO routinely go into a series looking as how recently pitchers in the opponents bullpen have worked, and will attempt to tire out the good ones ASAP. They look at who’s been hot or cold on both their team and the opponents. Do they want to let their player work through it or sit him?
The shortcoming with what both the writers and most of the posters here write is that everyone looks at generalized statistics. Sometimes I see a “Since [month / day] Player X has hit/pitched….”. Nice try. No cigar. All teams in MLB are looking at far more in-depth statistics, especially when that know events took place with individual players, which caused those stats to show what they’re showing. Which is why all professional team sports franchises now hire multiple analytics people, give them access to data and software to analyze that data; and have them reviewing data every day trying to find patterns that can give their manager / coaches an edge working with individual players or how best to deploy them. In fact, even POBO’s on are a computerized devices running their proprietary software against data doing what-if’s.
It’s very complicated. Stuff such as: “He had 2.5 War and should be paid $Xm” is nice to kick around, but….”.
They is the twins, so the good teams point is moot
Sadly, this team goes as Byron Buxton goes
Rye Rye Rocco!
Maybe the team just isn’t good enough. Not every time is the manager’s fault.
There is PLENTY of blame to go on Rocco.
He is a bumbling idiot. He has, twice, in his career accidentally made the starting pitcher get pulled by accidentally going out to the mound twice. He’s been caught off guard by many things.
He doesn’t have the respect of the team. Sonny gray said in spring training that the twins seemed like such a good fit for him. About a month ago (when they were still in first) he was asked if he still feels that way and he gave this painfully pregnant pause and goes “I want to pitch deeper into ballgames”.
And he doesn’t even have the guts to make in game decisions.
A lot of the day to day is just the team structure and team fault. Falvey and Levine are running the team like a computer program, trying to make the law of averages apply to every player in every situation, and they don’t even watch the games. They just hope it works out. They don’t even deep dive because if they did they would see that certain players (like Cleveland’s Naylor, off the top of my head) crushes relievers much harder than he hits a starter the third time through the order.
Rocco is a puppet for them.
He’s a joke and shouldn’t be a major league manager but he probably will be until the twins finally fire the two clowns running the show
“….Falvey and Levine are running the team like a computer program,…”
Agree with that.
What I see of the Twins operation from a distance is this…..
The owner and Falvey / Levine are not on the same page. Owners need to give direction on things like the budget and what the franchise is trying to accomplish in the short, intermediate, and long term. Same as any business. Falvey / Levine wanted to rebuild after 2021, the owner told them he wanted to win now…do it.
Baldelli is not a full partner. He’s there to carry out what Falvey / Levine want done – he’s supposed to be a “Team Player”.
It’s not a full-functioning MLB operation.
18 guys on the IL right now. The rest of the teams in the division combined have 22. I don’t care for the manager or the way the team handles starting pitchers…Kind of hard to blame either of them with the lineups that they’ve been forced to rolled out the last month or two. Put 3/4 of any teams opening day roster on the IL and see how well they perform..
They should go to Ron’s garden and hire him…..
For all the hype over data and analytics, teams still win about as many games as they did for the past 40 years and the players put up about the same numbers. It doesn’t seem like a whole lot has been unearthed or gained by the data revolution.
Isn’t this the guy who had a complete meltdown – like a 5 year old having a hissy fit – because he didn’t like a MLB replay decision? He violently went after the most junior ump on the field because of a ruling made in New York. What a natural leader.
Did you watch the play? The Twins challenged several calls for blocking the plate earlier in the season and lost all of them, then had one of theirs challenged and it was overturned because Whit Merrifield intentionally slid into Gary Sanchez. Baldelli also pointed in the direction of the official scorer during his rant, signaling that he knew it was the replay official’s decision.
How do you use metrics when your lineup is Mendoza, Mendoza etc.?
This team is flawed, especially once the injury bug hit.
There are 2 starting pitchers incapable of going past 4 or 5 innings with no bulk reliever to take over.
They traded for 3 starting pitchers and both Paddock and Mahle were injured early in their tenure.
Their best player once again played less than 100 games.
Their most expensive player is starting to hit in pressure situations now that they are out of the playoff picture.
Their outfield is full of left handed hitters who are often needed against a left handed starting pitcher.
There is no team speed and the 3rd base coach has made some horendous mistakes with runners, etc., etc., etc.
As the saying goes “you can’t make chicken soup out of chicken feathers”
Rocco deserves a chance to manage a health lineup with at least adequate players throughout the roster.
Anyone could manage a good team. Rocco helped drive this one into the ground.
Doesn’t help either when the lineups look like were randomly generated.. Miranda is the best choice to hit lead off? Sanchez hitting cleanup? So many issues.
I’m not sure if another manager would do better but I do really enjoy checking the box for how many positions Nick Gordon plays
It isn’t just this year. This guy can’t get them over the hump. How many playoff games have they won under him? (Rhetorical question).
It would seem there’s better culture at AAA. Pitchers get a chance to work through tough situations. Granted, wins don’t matter so much but quick hook based on metrics and without justification can’t be a good long-term thing.
It could be good… if the Twins played it right and actually had a good bullpen. I was one that liked the multi-reliever games… but in suggesting it I suggested to save the money that a top end starter costs and use it to buy 2-3 All Star calliber relievers instead.. in that respect it makes sense… but when you have dud starters and replace them with unknowns and struggling guys in the pen.. it won’t be a good result. Right logic – wrong execution.
Falvey is the new Dayton Moore. Good luck with that Minnesota.
New management doesn’t try to understand traditional baseball They’re trying to reinvent the wheel. Losses are miserable and most wins are unattractive. The old saw of 60-60-60 doesn’t work when the leadership has taken a crap on the 60 that involves quality decision making. Mediocre baseball is not interesting and the ticket price doesn’t represent the opportunity for me to have a good experience.
I don’t love this decision but I don’t hate it either, frankly they should start higher up than Baldelli anyway.
I don’t think this is a good decision. Analytics are fine but the fundamentals seem to be missing from his teams.
Too much swinging for the fences and it seems this team really is lacking something under his leadership.
Would be nice to see a Joe Maddon in Minnesota.
They need Maddon or someone edgy like Guillen used to bring to the old Chi-Min rivalries
White Sox are worse