When the Pirates inked veteran starter Jose Quintana to a one-year, $2MM deal last November, it generated little fanfare. After a couple of rough seasons, Quintana was no longer viewed as a reliable starting option and expectations on the 33-year-old were minimal. However, the Pirates’ modest bet on Quintana paid off handsomely, as the southpaw will go down as one of the better free agent signings of the 2021-22 offseason.
Quintana turned in 165 2/3 innings of 2.93 ERA ball across 32 starts, 20 of those came with the Pirates before he was traded to the division rival Cardinals at the trade deadline. Only 16 pitchers had a better fWAR than Quintana’s 4.0 total, and Quintana will certainly get some votes as NL Comeback Player of the Year.
Quintana has been a workhorse for much of his career, beginning with four straight seasons of 200+ innings with the White Sox from 2013-16. Much more than just an innings-eater, Quintana posted a 3.35 ERA over that four-season stretch, highlighted by a 2016 season that saw him make the All-Star team and finish tenth in AL Cy Young Award voting. The White Sox weren’t in contention during this period, and with a rebuild in progress, Quintana became one of the most sought-after arms on the market. The Sox held onto the left-hander until July 2017, before dealing Quintana to the crosstown Cubs for four prospects — including Dylan Cease and Eloy Jimenez.
It’s a trade that still generates some hard feelings in Wrigleyville, as Jimenez and Cease have blossomed into stars for the White Sox and Quintana’s production took a step back as a Cub. He posted a 4.24 ERA over his 439 2/3 innings with the Cubs from 2017-20, and thumb surgery and a lat injury limited him to just 10 innings in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, marking the first significant injury absences of Quintana’s career.
Hitting free agency in the 2020-21 offseason, the Angels signed Quintana to a one-year, $8MM deal, hoping that he could bounce back and help solidify the rotation. Unfortunately, Quintana pitched his way out of their rotation altogether with an unsightly 8.23 ERA in ten starts. He fared slightly better in their bullpen, but the Angels cut ties with the lefty in August 2021, and Quintana didn’t have much success in five relief appearances with the Giants after San Francisco claimed him off waivers.
So, where did it go wrong? For one, the 2021 version of Quintana was a statistical outlier from the rest of his career, as both his strikeout rate (28.6%) and walk rate (11.8%) were far above his career averages. Chasing the extra missed bats seemed to make Quintana a bit more of a predictable pitcher, especially since he also cut back on the use of his slider and started throwing a (mostly ineffective) changeup more often. As a result, batters were teeing off on Quintana’s offering, resulting in a career-worst home run rate.
To be fair, Quintana was also hampered by some bad luck in 2021, as his 3.94 SIERA took a far more favorable view of his performance than his 6.43 ERA. While Quintana didn’t help himself by allowing more homers and a ton of hard contact, he also didn’t get much assistance from the Angels’ mediocre defense, as evidenced by his huge .378 BABIP. (Angels pitchers had a collective .305 BABIP in 2021, the third-highest total in all of baseball.)
With a better Pirates defense behind him, Quintana got back on track this season. Quintana stuck with more or less the same mix of pitchers, though he has cut back on his fastball usage and leaned more heavily on his off-speed stuff. The lower fastball usage turned Quintana’s four-seamer into one of the most effective pitches thrown by any hurler in 2022, with a -17 Run Value according to Statcast.
Quintana’s strikeout (20.2%) and walk (6.9%) rates also returned to around his career norms, and his problems with the long ball almost entirely disappeared — his 5.3% homer rate was the lowest of his career, and his eight total home runs allowed were the lowest of any qualified pitcher in baseball. After finishing in only the sixth percentile of all pitchers in hard-contact percentage in 2021, Quintana zoomed back above average in 2022, as his 35.8% mark put him in the 68th percentile.
This production led to plenty of interest at the trade deadline, and St. Louis ended up landing both Quintana and reliever Chris Stratton in exchange for right-hander Johan Oviedo and minor league third baseman Malcom Nunez. It was a nice return for the Pirates for a rental player, and the Cardinals were surely satisfied with their end of the deal. Quintana posted a 2.01 ERA over his 62 2/3 innings after the trade, helping the Cards capture the NL Central. The southpaw then added 5 1/3 shutout innings in Game 1 of the Wild Card Series, though a ninth-inning bullpen meltdown cost St. Louis the victory.
Given this success, Quintana looks like a solid bet to receive a multi-year contract in free agency this winter, though plenty of factors will weigh into the size of that deal. He turns 34 in January, and teams won’t forget about his 2020-21 struggles just because he turned things around this year. As MLBTR’s Anthony Franco noted in his preview of the Cardinals’ offseason, Quintana is an option to return to St. Louis, but the Cardinals may opt to pursue cheaper pitching options in favor of a bigger splash elsewhere on the roster. Still, Quintana’s return to form makes him an attractive target for any number of teams who need quality and durability in the rotation.
Risky
When the SF Giants cut Quintana, it seemed short-sighted. His small sample (5 games) there was not all disastrous despite the final numbers. He actually looked quite capable, even formidable, for 3 of those outings. And given their situatiion at the time, it would have made sense to give him a longer run. Which is why I was not surprised by his effectiveness since.
He’s probably not the dominant pitcher of years ago, but he’s savvy and I imagine would do quite well as a #4 or #5 going forward. I wish him well.
Whomever signs him they better have a capable defense behind him along with a game calling catcher.
Jose Q. can be a solid addition to the Dodgers, Padres and Astros for a third or fourth starter but if he signs with a weak defensive team then he will not be as good as he was this year.
Re: Capable defense behind him.
Sounds like he should stay in St. Louis or sign with LA Dodgers.
Although the Cardinals have a questionable catcher situation going into next year.
2 years 25 million STL
This is how bad the Angels are.. he goes to the Pirates and becomes a #2/#3 pitcher…
The Angels are flat out awesome at creating “statistical outliers”. No one better.
As an Angels fan it feels like a broken record with any player that has a bounceback after leaving the Angels. While the Angels sure have their share of bad luck I think even the most die hard fans have to admit the franchise has to take its share of blame too
2021 saw the Angels field the worst defensive SS in baseball in Jose Iglesias and injuries to Rendon and Trout that hurt them.
The problem with the Angels is that they need a good pitching coach and need to stop signing position players past their prime
I actually think matt wise did a good job this year with the young pitchers showing promise and development. I think he has earned the chance to continue in 2023
But I do agree about the past their prime players.
The Angels had one of the best pitching staffs in the AL this year.
The Angels also have their share of bad luck with players that quickly decline or have injury problems after signing with them such as Pujols, Hamilton, Simmons, Upton, Rendon, Trout’s record-breaking extension, etc.
Chris Stratton is another ex-Angel mentioned in the article who was disastrous until the Angels cut him and became a serviceable reliever for the Pirates. Angels desperately need a better coaching staff.
orange2001;
Their pitching coaches did a very nice job this year. Arguably brought along 3 starters along with a number of bullpen guys.
Pitching for Pit is 1) a completely stress-free situation because they have no expectations and 2) its the worst division in baseball playing half their games within the division. Whit the changes in the schedule it wont be so easy in 23.
Stratton wasn’t very good this year, though. He was even left off the playoff roster. The Pirates actually got the better reliever in Oviedo in the deal to help balance out the trade better.
I would not count out the Pirates for a return. It might look like he priced himself out of their range, but they really liked his clubhouse presence as well as his mound work, and Quintana seemed to genuinely reciprocate liking Pittsburgh. The Bucs are going to have to fork over some two-year veteran deals sooner or later; why not now in a guy they’re already comfortable with? They won’t get into a bidding war for Quintana, but if other teams are wary of Quintana’s numbers going forward, don’t be shocked if the Pirates swoop in and “Pirate” him away.
I would be fine with this. Even if he puts up an ERA around 4, he will still have value as a dependable arm in the rotation. I’d also bring back the catcher Perez who got injured on a one year deal. Team has to spend money at some point and start to improve. Also they need a 1B/DH in the worst way. Always a problem for them aside from a good year or two of Josh Bell.
As long as they don’t bring in a VanMeter, @Monkey’sUncle, hey that’s fine
He’s still better than Wilson and Thompson as starters
Sorry. Pittsburg is not “paying” anyone. The will continue to sign faltering mlb players and couple with their farm system players. Anyone that is a baseball fan can see the ownership is content with the revenue sharing plan. Why pay any real money for a free agent. Take the money from the league and try to stay ahead of the Reds so it looks honest.
The Pirates will not sign Quintana for 2023. He priced himself out of the Nutting family business wage scale of minimum wage for one year. I can’t believe people are gullible enough to fall for this con game again. The Pirates keep moving the line back as to when they will be “playoff contenders” and along the way the players like Reynolds will be moved out because Nutting won’t pay them. The prospects/suspects may not be what is being advertised and even if some of them are, how long will it be until they see through the Nutting charade and make it clear they won’t be staying any longer than they have to. That’s how the Nutting family runs all of their businesses. Pay the bare minimum and when their help start to reach their potential and ask for a raise, let them walk away and be replaced with more minimum wage replacements.
Quintana hit a rough stretch in the shortened 2020 that carried over in to his time with the Angels in 2021 but it looks like he has gotten back on track. He’ll have an interesting market as he probably won’t get a big money contract so even the mid-market teams can be in on him
He didn’t exactly light Wrigleyville on fire.
The Cubs light money on fire
I would love to see Quintanna back in the Cards rotation next year. He definitely looked like his early years and pitched very effectively. I don’t see the team offering a multi year deal however. Especially if Wainwright returns.
This will be a typical Cardinals signing. He’s and old veteran believe they can continually give IV’s from the fountain of youth. He pitched well for them so they will believe he is going to be a cy young contender next year. They will sign him for a multi year deal and he will either be injured or I. Effective for the duration of it. He would be the one or two in St. Louis, he needs but he either needs to go to be a top end guy on a very bad team or where he can be a back end guy on a very good team.
Man I totally wanted the Phillies to sign Quintanna as a reliable 4th type as Gibson was well Gibson and Suarez hadn’t been fully stretched out.
Dombrowski more often than not makes good decisions……? So I’ll tow the line….
Glad Quintanna has rebounded….
Quintana was terrific for the Cardinals who clearly understood how to utilize his pitches. I hope both parties realize a 1yr deal at 8.5mil w/ a club option for 2024 is a fair deal.
That wouldn’t be a bad deal. But they will probably sign him to 3/40 and call it an off-season. Then have the local radio sell us that it was a total steal.
He’ll do better than that.
We’ll see for sure, I don’t think his past performance guarantees that kind of deal over that term. He seems more like “the new Adam Wainwright.”
He was good.
Seems like one of those situations where the question will be “is he worth a $25M AAV or is he gonna be a DFA candidate?” and you won’t know which you’re gonna get until he pitches.
I think the appropriate move is a one year deal with an option and a buyout that all add up to his true potential value when he’s in the zone and a base salary that accounts for his value when he’s not in the zone.
1 year/$8M w/ a $4.5M buyout on a $22.5M option and escalators for innings pitched that can take his in season guarantee to $10M, his buyout to $6M, his option to $25M and the potential for it to be triggered via vesting.
So a minimum value of 1 year/$12.5M and max value of up to 2 years/$35M
And an off chance of the option not vesting and not getting picked up but Quintana reaching all the incentives and walking away with a 1 year/$16M pay day.
Amazing how these guys “Find Themselves” the year they’re headed into free agency.
He was a free agent at the end of the 2020 and 2021 seasons too and didn’t “find himself” either year.
Yeah, there’s no data to support that players can suddenly turn it on in a contract year. The ones that do like Judge stick out in the mind, but there are just as many that perform at their usual level or worse at that time.
Calling Jimenez a star??? Cease, yes, but Jimenez has yet to produce a healthy season.
Yeah, I never minded trading Eloy for Q. He was somewhat blocked on the Cubs. Adding in Cease was a tough price to pay as he was the Cubs top pitching prospect when they had trouble developing pitching.
Going to be popular amongst mid market teams.
Notice how when a player leaves the Pirates, their era is halved.
The Cardinals should back the truck up and give him $50m for 3 years.
He could be the lefty in the rotation the Mets were missing all season. Not elite. But a solid #4 starter.
I’d definitely take him back on the Pirates, definitely one of the bright spots on the team this past year.
Quintana does not typically put up a lot of quality starts, usually under 50%. You have to assume Waino will be back for his last season. Waino, Mikolas, Flaherty, Montgomery, Hudson, Matz, Liberatore might get some action, Pallante has done decent. I realize that some of these options are big question marks, but so is Quintana historically.
I wouldn’t necessarily mind seeing him come back, since it seems we can never have enough pitching. I just think his AAV will be higher than what the cards would be willing to offer. I would hope if he comes back, the contract is beefed up by a lot of incentives.
Quintana is perfect for the Orioles…..
A LH veteran starter to balance a RH heavy starting staff. Takes over from Lyles as the veteran presence. Pitching in front of a very good defense – and if the opposition loads up on RH bats against him in Camden Yards they’re pulling the ball into a vast LF with the wall nearly 400 feet from home plate. The team has a great bullpen, if he can go 5-6 innings in most starts that would be fine.
He won’t be terribly expensive, nor will he be around for so many years that as the O’s starting pitchers mature he’ll be blocking anyone. Will be on a contending team working with a great coaching staff.
Don’t discount a reunion with the Giants for JQ. They have tons of money to spend and a good portion of it will be spent on starting pitching. SF has always been a good defensive team, but I’m not expecting Belt, Crawford, Rondon and most of their outfielders to return. Gonna need that proverbial scorecard next year to know who is on the team. JQ would be a good not-over-the-top signing.
The Giants join the Rangers as the 2 most desperate owners / FO’s in MLB.
Agents are targeting them this off-season. Last year they got on Cohen and the Mets. Now a good portion of his veterans want out unless he overpays them.
Pirates receive much criticism, for good reason, but in this case, Oscar Marin deserves credit for helping Quintana rediscover the form he had seemingly lost many seasons ago.