Going into next year, the Mariners have considerable depth in their rotation. Luis Castillo and Robbie Ray are locked in for the foreseeable future on nine-figure contracts, while both Logan Gilbert and George Kirby proved this season that they fit right in as capable starters who can take the ball in the playoffs. One might expect Chris Flexen, coming off a solid season at the back of Seattle’s rotation that saw him vest an $8MM option for the 2023 season, to bring up the rear.
However, it’s also possible the M’s look to deal Flexen for help elsewhere on the roster this winter. As part of a reader mailbag, The Athletic’s Corey Brock notes that multiple teams inquired about the right-hander at this past trade deadline. Brock opines the M’s could more earnestly shop Flexen for offensive help over the offseason.
After coming over to the Mariners from South Korea during the 2020-21 offseason, Flexen had a strong first season in Seattle that surpassed expectations. He made 31 starts, posting a 3.61 ERA in 179 2/3 innings while compensating for his low 16.9% strikeout rate with a minuscule 5.4% walk rate and a knack for avoiding barrels. Because of this, his performance was generally backed up by the peripherals, leading to a strong 3.89 FIP in 2021.
While those numbers are sufficiently impressive one might assume Flexen is a lock for a rotation spot next year, his follow-up to that campaign in 2022 was less impressive. While his 3.73 ERA this season may not seem like a significant departure from last year, due to the drastically more pitcher-friendly run environment this season, his ERA+ dropped from a solidly above average 114 in 2021 to a just a touch below league average 99 in 2022. Flexen’s dip in performance is further explained by regression in all of his peripherals this season: His groundball rate plummeted from 42.4% in 2021 all the way down to 33.8% in 2022, his walk rate jumped up to a still solid but less impressive 8.6%, and his FIP ballooned up to 4.49. All this lead to the Mariners moving Flexen to the bullpen following their acquisition of Castillo at this season’s trade deadline.
It would certainly make sense for the Mariners to entertain offers on Flexen, particularly with the glut of options the Mariners have for the back of the rotation. Marco Gonzales made 32 starts this year and is under contract for another two seasons (with a club option thereafter). Seattle could theoretically shop Gonzales this winter instead of Flexen, but they elected to stick with the southpaw over Flexen as the #5 starter down the stretch. The M’s also have promising young arms such as Emerson Hancock who may be ready to make the jump to the majors next year.
Between Flexen’s $8MM salary for next season and his dip in performance during 2022, the Mariners wouldn’t recoup an astronomical return. There’ll be a fair number of back of the rotation, innings eating arms in free agency. Many of those pitchers will require multi-year deals, while Flexen will be a free agent after 2023. That shorter commitment could make him more appealing than a free agent landing multiple years at a similar annual salary, but the number of available alternatives will cut against the quality of the trade package Seattle receives.
Given this, the best fit for a Flexen trade would likely be a budget-conscious team who has a bat either under contract or arbitration control at a price higher than they would like to pay. One possible example of such a situation would be the Guardians and Amed Rosario. As Steve Adams discussed earlier today, Rosario is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to make $9MM in arbitration for the 2023 season, and the Guardians have a glut of young talent available, such as Gabriel Arias and Brayan Rocchio, who could potentially be cheaper options to pair with 2022 breakout star Andres Gimenez up the middle.
Rosario, who hit .283/.312/.403 (103 wRC+) this season, has primarily played shortstop to this point in his career, but would surely represent an upgrade over Adam Frazier at second base. Meanwhile, the Guardians might appreciate a durable, back of the rotation pitcher who’s already swung between the bullpen and the rotation in his career to line up behind Shane Bieber, Triston McKenzie, and Cal Quantrill in the rotation, leaving the likes of Aaron Civale and Zach Plesac to compete with youngsters like Konnor Pilkington and Cody Morris for the fifth spot in Cleveland’s rotation. The Guardians aren’t likely to jump at a one-for-one swap of Flexen and Rosario, but it’s possible they could have interest in a bigger trade package that sees those players swap teams.
The Guardians represent just one possible option in this mold, however. The Orioles could be open to dealing some offensive talent to shore up a rotation full of question marks. The Rays may look to move on from first baseman Ji-Man Choi, who could replace Carlos Santana in the DH spot next year for the Mariners. Those are just a few of a number of teams that could be in touch with president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto and his staff about Flexen this winter.
Ship out Crawford, Marco, D. Castillo, and Sewald; trade for Bradish who would fit well in the AL West; bring in Tarik Skubal Sit on Flexen until Skubal is healthy and then deal Flexen at the deadline for an upgrade!
My favorite idea for a trade is Marco Gonzales, J.P. Crawford, Justus Sheffield, and Zach DeLoach to the Rockies for Kinley (reliever they can stash on the DL), Grichuk (righty platoon for Kelenic), and Hampson (righty platoon bat for 2B or pinch-runner off the bench with options).
what on Earth???
Rox would jump on that yesterday!Grichuk, that’s funny
When’s your next show at the comedy club.
Sheesh……..
Sounds like someone is dealing from UNDER the deck…
Nyuk nyuk!!!
Grichuk and Hampson both are well above-average against lefties, Mariners get to clear $50-60M off the books over the next 4 years including salaries for Grichuk, Hampson, and Kinley.
Hampson is non tender candidate.
Grichuk got about 60-70% of his AB in the 5-8 hole. Not were you put impact bat on a bad team.
Career oba – under .300
Dipoto is looking for offensive ungrades- Grichuk is not.
Grichuk was acquired for Tapia (lite hitting OF). This was a you don’t want and we don’t want trade
Thank for you aren’t making the decisions. This is some of the worst ideas I’ve seen
That’s more of a representation of your knowledge than mine to be honest.
One major miss on this is that Flexen has team control until 2027. He would just be arbitration eligible after next year. He only has 2.2yrs of service time
@Buddy Boy- Part of Flexen’s contract when coming over from S. Korea is that he doesn’t become arb-eligible, he goes straight into free agency.
I see nothing that shows this not have I heard that. The deal stated he couldn’t be optioned without his approval and had the 3rd year option with the vesting language. Fangraphs and Baseball Reference show what I posted as well. I also have read that in articles discussing why he has more value. I fully believe he is under control until 2027 thru arbitration.
BBREF doesn’t usually account for such clauses.
Buddy- I thought the very same thing on Flexen’s contract. Sportrac also has him listed as a FA in 2027.
I’m a Mariners fan who was originally under the impression that Flexen was a FA in 2023. I was then corrected by a couple of knowledgeable commenters on here who explained why his FA is not until 2027. If you recall his tenure in NYM, he did not spend much time in the Major Leagues before he left for the KBO.
If I’m truthfully honest, although I have confirmed his FA is 2027 on multiple websites I do still wonder a wee bit given this MLBTR articles 2023 FA date. Also when Flexen’s option kicked in last yr all of the Seattle Mariners team articles re: his contract stated the team have him under contract until 2023. Now, that could just mean his new team has to come to a financial agreement on his remaining 3 years.
I really wish someone with the M’s Org or MLBTR would clear this up once and for all. Besides a trade for 4 yrs of Flexen would net an entirely different type of player to help our lineup.
It was clarified on 710 recently that he is not arb-eligible under this contract. This NY Times article also states that he is a free agent at the conclusion of this deal:
nypost.com/2020/12/09/ex-met-chris-flexen-signs-wi…
@aybrhoy nypost.com/2020/12/09/ex-met-chris-flexen-signs-wi…
It states Flexen is an FA at the conclusion of this contract.
I have to give props for to a mariners fan for even knowing Kyle Bradish.
Don’t believe the O’s are going to ship him out because theyre looking to add arms though.
Yeah, but who on their pitching staff could they pencil in for an average or better 175 IP in 2023? None of their pitchers besides Lyles registered more than 125.1 IP. Only Kremer and Voth registered above-average performances over the course of the full season. I’m willing to bet Bradish gets better in 2023, but can the Orioles build a rotation that can navigate 162 games with one below-average pitcher who has thrown more than 125 IP in the previous season? Lyles had an ERA+ of 91.
Flexen would’ve thrown close to 180 IP for the second straight year if Castillo didn’t take his rotation spot and bump him to the bullpen, even then he still got 137+ IP despite spending two months in the bullpen. With an ERA+ of 99. If nothing else, he offers stability and durability that they are definitely lacking while giving the team a chance to win every time he takes the mound. He won’t front the rotation of a playoff team, but he could help the O’s to gamble on Rodriguez, Kremer, while leaving two spots for top of the rotation acquisitions through free agency or trade.
As an example, signing Carlos Rodon to be the ace, Taijuan Walker to be the #2, promoting Grayson Rodriguez to be the #3 to start the season, keeping Kremer as the #4, only would be possible with an innings eater in the #5 spot of the rotation. Grayson is young an unestablished, so he’s a question mark as of now, regardless of his potential. Rodon, Walker, and Kremer all come with durability questions, so putting Bradish as the #5 exposes the Orioles to having to pay premium value on the trade market if DL Hall or another arm on the farm can’t step up mid-season to fill whatever whole is created. Personally, I would even suggest keeping Lyles and running a 6-man rotation that can be tightened up to a 5-man if someone goes on the DL!
The point being that the Mariners don’t need inning eaters. If nothing changes, they have Castillo, Ray, Gilbert, Kirby, Marco, and Flexen who could all give 180+ IP in 2023. So swapping durability for upside, especially for a guy who dominated their biggest adversary makes a ton of sense for the Mariners, even if they have to overpay a little bit!
The O’s will probably have developed 2 more no name pitchers that can give them innings next year.
What the really good teams do. The Guardians never buy mid rotation starters. They develop them.
That’s what you’ll see in Baltimore. If we buy anything—I think it’ll be a top of the rotation arm.
Bradish isn’t going anywhere. Nice young pitcher with a high upside.
But the fun of these scenarios is sending out players you don’t like for players you do, rayionale be damned.
Man, that’s the craziest trade package I’ve ever seen proposed by a fan of the team getting fleeced. I hope we don’t even consider doing that and almost assuredly JD won’t. Hampson might be available for free soon if he’s non-tendered. And Grichuk? He was traded for Tapia!! He has very low trade value.
The Mariners wouldn’t be getting fleeced. Teams need role players, even good teams, especially championship teams! The Mariners have about 40-50 guys on their team and could use salary room more than the performance of a 2 WAR player. The can blindfold themselves and point around the locker room and consistently find 2 WAR players. But what they need is more elite regulars, All-Stars, and Superstars to augment their team.
As of right now the Mariners only have 1 OF written in pen for 2023, Julio in CF. As for the corners, they have Kelenic, Trammell, maybe Lewis, maybe Moore, and Haggerty. That means if the season started today, they’d have Kelenic and Trammell in the corners with Haggerty and Moore as platoon options. In the infield, they’d be running Toro out at 2B, and only catchers left after that.
Grichuk vs LHP in ’22 hit ,308/,333/.593; a .926 OPS or a sOPS+ of 154
Hampson vs LHP in ’22 hit .296/.386/.451; an .836 OPS or a sOPS+ of 136
On defense Grichuk played CF and RF getting 1 OAA and 1 Run Prevented, while ranking #37 among all OF arms in terms of velo (92.9 mph max) with at least 300 throws. Would give the Mariners an option when needed in CF, but his defense would play best in LF, where he might grade out as above-average.
For Hampson he played a majority of his time at 2B, where he registered exactly a 0 for OAA and a 0 for Runs Prevented, while having an good arm for a 2B (90.6 mph max), but probably not ideal for regular reps on the left side of the infield, he could cover all three outfield positions due to his speed, but his arm would play best in LF.
Kinley had a FIP of 1.74 through the first 24 IP of 2022, which is even more impressive considering where he played his home games. While he would need time to recover, it’s always nice having someone like him stashed on your 40-man roster as a late season replacement or upgrade when coming down the stretch. If nothing else, he’ll be fresh by the time he would be needed. It also would limit what he could get in arbitration, making him a potential bargain as a guy who can be stashed until mid-season without tying up a roster spot.
The real benefit for the Mariners comes in the salary relief, as J.P. is due to make $11M in 2023-2025 and $12M in 2026. Marco is due to make $6.75M in 2023 and $12.25M in 2024. Sheffield will still be a pre-arb option and should only require around $750K. Compared to Grichuk making around $10-11M including incentives, Hampson should be affordable at $1.25-1.75M in 2023 and $1.75-2.25M in 2024 on a 2 year agreement for $3-4M, and Kinley would make about $2M in 2023, and $3-4M in 2024.
The Mariners would be dumping $65M over the next four years, while only picking up around $20M in return. That breaks down to a savings of $5M in 2023, $18M in 2024, $11M in 2025, and $12M in 2026.
The Rockies are a tough sell for even reliable inning eaters, let alone holding an option for a 3rd year on Marco at $15M, which could be a bargain compared to the premium they have to pay pitchers. Since Gonzales is from the Colorado area, he comes with the advantage of knowing how to pitch at high altitude from his H.S. years, making him even more beneficial to the Rockies.
Colorado just paid Jose Iglesias $5M in 2022 to put up a 1.2 bWAR and 1.0 fWAR, while J.P. would cost about twice that much while coming off a 2.8 bWAR and 2.0 fWAR season in 2022. Once you consider how much they have to overpay even hitters like Kris Bryant to come to Denver, it would be a huge benefit for them to have a SS locked up for the next four seasons while they try and groom a replacement internally.
Sheffield would join his brother on the Rockies pitching staff and he would finally get a chance to prove himself either in the rotation or as a lefty out of the bullpen. DeLoach would offer them a potential OF in the mold of Seth Smith, something that fits with their identity and would be a natural fit to their system.
So to summarize, they would be trading away a SS that is ripe for decline in the next couple years, but who would help build the team culture in Denver, while at least being average to slightly above-average. Aside from that, they’d be moving a SP who couldn’t crack the starting five in Seattle, another who is blocked in AAA, and a future MLB regular or platoon outfielder that is blocked in a good farm system like the Mariners, while getting back payroll flexibility and guys that offer specific skills and overall roster flexibility at a limited cost.
TLDR
Mom!! I finally finished reading Moby Dick.
Finished reading War and Peace
Thanks for the novel. Feeling hurt much? You care way too much about backing up this horrible trade proposal. It’s a horrendous proposal. Simple as that. Just give up. Also, you’re here trying to argue hitting numbers for Rockies players. Care for me to elaborate on that or do you get it?
You’ve earned a mute from me. Congratulations.
Halos can take 1 or 2 of these guys off their hands no problemo.
I guess you didn’t hear about the fight. I’m not sure any of them could play for Nevin or get along with some of the clubhouse cancers like Rendon.
Thank_God_We_Arent_Angels;
Rendon is a “clubhouse cancer”?
Please……
Depth is king. Having 6 starters isn’t nearly enough.
They have more than that…
Luis Castillo – MLB
Logan Gilbert – MLB
George Kirby – MLB
Robbie Ray – MLB
Matt Brash – MLB
Chris Flexen – MLB
Marco Gonzales – MLB
Justus Sheffield – AAA/MLB
Emerson Hancock – 2023 ETA
Taylor Dollard – 2023 ETA
Bryce Miller – 2023 ETA
Prelander Berroa – 2023 ETA
That’s assuming they don’t target a guy like SP Rodon in FA, or trade for Kyle Bradish, Tarik Skubal, or some other young starters with years of control. Part of building a roster of depth is having guys that can sit in AAA or the back of your bullpen until you need them. Marco and Flexen can neither go to AAA or move to the bullpen. Brash is probably best served staying in a relief role and that may be the case with some of the others I listed in the minors.
Seattle should be trading both of Marco and Flexen, bring back someone young with options like Bradish, and find some else in free agency like Rodon or a guy who is DFA’d like Elieser Hernandez that might consider doing a split contract with the agreement he gets the first chance to fill a rotation spot when a need arises.
This M’s are not going to sign, or target Rodon.
Absolutely, and to add to that point the Mariners Rotation did not suffer an injury the entire year in 22’. How many times has that happened in consecutive years? I do worry that one of Gilbert or Kirby may suffer from pitching so many innings this year- they both blew by their previous yearly total ip number by considerable margins last yr. Who knows maybe my concern of injury for either of them is just an M’s fans irrational thinking!?
However I think the main reason Seattle beat writers and the National media are discussing Flexen or Marco trade packages is due to the fact that they also have 3 Top SP prospects who each had great seasons in AA last yr. Hancock, Taylor Dollard and Bryce Miller would all almost certainly make their ML debut if the M’s had rotation spots avail. If traded any one of them would surely make another teams rotation. Hancock is the highest rated prospect but Miller and Dollard have had so much MiLB success over the past 2 yrs each of them has skyrocketed up the ranks in that Ms farm system. I believe its these 3 SP prospects that give the M’s enough of a comfort factor to deal away one of Flexen or Marco.
Flexen and/or Marco probably will be traded.
But don’t expect much back.
At this point Flexen is like Bailey Falter of the Phillies and Marco is similar to Kyle Gibson.
First off, just say NO to Choi. He’s a platoon DH with limited power, exactly what the M’s don’t need. The Flexen-for-Rosario move wouldn’t be bad, but again, the M’s need an impact bat in the lineup. Trading for DJ LeMahieu would be a better idea; injuries aside, he hits well and would work at the top of the lineup or in the #2 spot. He plays multiple positions, giving the M’s flexibility to rotate guys like France and Suarez through the DH spot as needed. Yankees need to clear some $$$ room to keep Judge and have PLENTY of middle infield options (Torres, Volpe, Cabrera, Peraza), so moving LeMahieu makes sense for them. They’d still need a good lefty bat, though, as most of their good bats (J-Rod, France, Haniger, Suarez) are righties. Raleigh is a switch-hitter and gives them power from the left side, but Kelenic is still an unknown and Crawford is a defense-first player at this point (and not necessarily all that great anymore there anyway.) Maybe sign Michael Conforto to a one-year make-good contract?
LeMahieu makes zero sense, he’s leaving his prime years, he’ll be 34 next year, and he’s like J.P. Crawford 2.0, which makes him a utility player going forward. Hard pass on LeMahieu, especially when there are a lot of really good middle infield options to choose from going forward.
LeMahieu makes NO sense but Hampson and Grichuk do? Haha
Yeah, because as I stated above Grichuk is a league average defender coming off a sOPS+ 154 in 2022 against LHP, while Hampson had a sOPS+ of 136 against LHP, as well. Not to mention the financial savings that could be reinvested in the team.
Say the Mariners dump the following salaries…
Dollar figures based on their guaranteed contract for the upcoming season…
Crawford $11M (2023) – trade
Marco $6.75M (2023) – trade
Flexen $8M (2023) – trade
Winker $8.25M (2023) – trade
Trades would eliminate $34M in potential salary commitments for 2023
————————————————————————————-
Dollar figures are based on last year of their expired contract…
Frazier $8M (2022) – free agency
Haniger $7.75M (2022) – free agency
Santana $10.5M (2022) – free agency
Boyd $5.2M (2022) – free agency
Casali $2.6M (2022) – free agency
Free Agency will eliminate $34M in 2022 salary from the roster
————————————————————————————-
The Mariners current payroll as of today for 2023 is $88M, but without returning any free agents and by trading away the players listed above, that total would drop to $54M. If they add in $16M for Kinley, Grichuk, and Hampson. They’re still at $70M. Before their TV deal and improved revenue sharing, the Mariners were routinely running payrolls around $150M. Add in the playoff revenue from 2022 and future playoff revenues that they should be able to count on going forward and it would not be impossible for them to maintain a payroll in the $180-200M range.
They could sign Diaz to close ($20M), Rogers to be a LH setup ($10M), Rodon to be the #1 or #2 starter ($25M) alongside Castillo and they’d still only have a payroll around $125M + 24M in arb salaries would only be at $150M.
To be honest a lot of the arb guys would be traded if I was them as well. Sewald, D. Castillo, Toro, Sheffield, Murphy or Torrens, Borucki, maybe even France, Lewis, or Swanson in the right deals.
No matter which way you shake it and how many numbers you throw out, it still makes no sense. There is a reason Grichuk was traded for Tapia. They’re both inconsistent and underpeforming players. M’s can’t afford to platoon in the sense you’re suggesting. LeMahieu makes much more sense than Hampson (who is a below average MLB player that will spend time in the minors next season) because he is at least an impact bat capable of playing 3 IF spots.
And I’d bet lots of money Dipoto doesn’t spend $30M AAV on the bullpen, nor should he.
Yeah, Choi is probably getting a NT.
Any team that deals from starting pitching depth will be looking for rotation help come June, guaranteed.
Cardinals thought they had depth when they traded for Ozuna and now they’re regretting it
remember when, SEA had ‘too many outfielders’ in spring training? Then combing waiver wire by June……
The Mariners could also swap depth. Like I said earlier, they could get Bradish or Skubal on the cheap, while dumping Marco and Flexen. This is more about dealing solid options for better options based on their schedule and position of the teams currently. The Orioles lack inning-eaters could benefit from the stability of a Chris Flexen over the upside and instability of a Kyle Bradish.
Truthfully, Castillo and Kirby are the only untouchables. Gilbert is almost untouchable. Flexen over Marco in my opinion, but Ray, Marco, and Flexen are all expendable. The Mariners also have Hancock who was the best pitcher in the Futures Game in 2021, Miller who can touch 100 as a SP, and Taylor Dollard who can touch 94-95 and has plus control, all possible rotation callups in 2023.
I could see the Mariners offering Gilbert to Miami for Chisholm, K. Watson, and Jake Eder. The Marlins could slot Gilbert behind Alcantara and use their other pitching depth to bring in hitters without an extreme platoon splits (Jazz struggles against LHP), while Haggerty would make a great 2B platoon option for Chisholm. Eder would be a surgery rehab who could help down the stretch as a SP or LH reliever.. Watson is a disaster, but he might be fixed with a change .of scenery.
Tigers might trade Skubal (injured) and Jimenez (walk year) for 3 years of Swanson, 6+ years of Dollard, and a nice projectible OF bat like Gabriel Gonzalez who could make the majors in two years.
Orioles might trade Bradish for SP Flexen, DH Winker, and $5-10M in cash.
After the way they got lit up for their failures in the postseason by fans and the press, along with the exclusion of Ray from all 5 postseason starts, I think him and Sewald may want out of town and Robbie could waive a no-trade clause for the right situation. I think the D-backs make a lot of sense with Ketel Marte a change of scenery possibility. Mariners could send Ray and Sewald for Marte. The D-backs get a solid starter and reliever, the Mariners trade $23M/year to Ray over 4 seasons for $15M/year to Marte over 5 seasons. D-backs clear their payroll faster, Mariners have $8M more to work with each season.
Orioles have too many LH bats as it is.
They won’t want Winker.
The O’s need another RH bat that can play 1B—if anything. Mountcastle’s the only real 1B in the org near the MLB level. I think Elias would be targeting the M’s young pitching in a trade.
A guy like Hancock. I don’t think those 2 teams line up very well for a deal though. Unless DiPoto wanted to acquire a guy like Westburg, who could be an everyday 2B.
Also,
Robbie Ray at 4/94. Not sure anybody is lining up to take that at present.
How about France and Flexen for Bradish and Means?! This gives you a RH bat and someone that is an excellent hitter and clubhouse guy to play 1B or DH, but has the versatility to play 2B or 3B, if needed. You get an innings eater for the back of the rotation and it only costs you 26-year-old rookie with some upside and a 30-year-old coming off a missed year due to TJ surgery! I think the Mariners are one of the very few teams that do match up with the Orioles depending on what they are trying to accomplish.
Evan White killed his last 19 games in Tacoma to close out the year with a .242/.333/.636 triple slash for a .970 OPS with a 10.7% BB and 16% SO rates. Considering the existing contract and the GG that he already owns, I could see the Mariners rolling the dice on White in 2023, figuring that 1B is usually an easy trade target to fill during the season, especially with Robert Perez breaking out and only being a year or so from reaching the majors. Don’t be surprised if Hollander and JeDi don’t realize that Bradish is Houston Kryptonite, especially if I was able to see it.
How about a team like the D-backs! They could trade Ketel Marte for Robbie Ray and Paul Sewald. It adds another bullpen arm they need, while giving them a starter who despite all the negativity around him pitched 189 IP, struck out 212 batters, held teams to a 1.19 WHIP and posted a respectable 3.71 ERA
It’s also worth noting that the Mariners organizational philosophy of throwing up in the zone, might not be the best idea for a guy like Ray. He also added a sinker mid-way through the season during a game against the Astros on June 6th. Starting with his next turn in the rotation, he pitched the rest of the season to a stat line of:
After adding the sinker:
20 GS, 118.1 IP, 97 H (7.4 H/9), 39 ER (2.97 ERA), 35 BB (2.7 BB/9), 135 SO (10.3 K/9), 18 HR (1.4 HR/9), a FIP of 3.82 and an opponent OPS of .679 (.278 BABIP)
Prior to the pitch addition:
12 GS, 70.2 IP, 66 H (8.4 H/9), 39 ER (4.97 ERA), 27 BB (3.4 BB/9), 77 SO (9.8 K/9), 14 HR (1.8 HR/9), a FIP of 4.74 and an opponent OPS of .793 (.292 BABIP)
I added rate stats to see the improvement, same innings per game, but a hit less, 2 ER less per start, almost a full walk less per start, half a strikeout more each game, and nearly half a homerun less each start. The most telling thing is the rock steady BABIP, which is right around where you would expect it to be if there is not a lot of luck involved in the numbers.
The Mariners certainly don’t need to trade him, but as a team that may value improving where they can and considering how things played out in the playoffs, I’m not sure Ray wants to stick around Seattle and Rodon > Ray by a lot more than what the salary differences would be for the M’s. However, Arizona couldn’t lure a guy like Rodon, all things being equal because of their division and playoff chances over the next few years. If I’m Dipoto, I’d take Marte and signing Rodon for a combined $40M/year over staying with Ray and someone like Frazier for $30M/year.
You have suggested some of the worst moves the Mariners could ever make this off-season. Thank God you aren’t even remotely in a position in charge of decision making because you would destroy the Mariners future in about a week.
The Mariners are going to either make budget moves, dump salary and sign big ticket free agents, and/or trade young talent for multiple pieces. Does trading Gilbert hurt? Sure, but if you get back Chisholm who you can then platoon with Hampson, that’s a great 2B situation, with both being excellent baserunners off the bench and offering platoon options as pinch hitters as well. Most of the trades and signings I suggest are exactly what Dipoto has done for years. Those are the choices you make as a GM. You may have to consider whether Gilbert wants to stay in Seattle or get back closer to FL where he grew up, went to college, and his fiancée lives. Sure Miami may be looking for offense, but the problem for them with Chisholm could be his splits….
Chisholm vs RHP in 2022: .275/.348/.579, which is a .927 OPS or sOPS+ of 159.
Chisholm vs LHP in 2022: .143/.205/.314, which is a .519 OPS or sOPS+ of 44
Is he talented? Yes. Can his platoon splits be exploited? Absolutely. The Mariners could platoon him with Hampson or Haggerty at 2B and benefit from him getting 450-500 PAs as a semi-regular player. If he can eventually learn to hit lefties to at least a near league average rate, it would make him a very good player, but until then, he can’t be even the 3rd or 4th best option offensively for a team. Luckily for the Mariners, they have Julio, Suarez, Raleigh, and others to share in the responsibilities. The Marlins would need to add Trea Turner, Dansby Swanson, and Willson Contreras to the lineup to even have enough talent to make Chisholm an offensive factor.
Sure in a vacuum Hampson doesn’t make a ton of sense, but it’s the other big moves that add value to guys like him on a MLB roster.
Thank_God_We_Arent_Angels;
LOL
1. The Mariners are not trading Gilbert. Period.
2. Why would any team trade a controlled, cheap TOR pitcher for a middle infielder to platoon?
3. The Marlins have plenty of starting pitching. They’re looking at trading some to get more offense.
Sorry, couldn’t help it.
So you trade a bonafide top of the rotation pitcher for what could turn out to be Winker? Cmon man!
You lost me at Gilbert for Chisolm. I just stopped reading.
Said not the Astros and Mariners ever.
Thanks for this article. Was unaware they had pitching depth. You mention the Orioles as a possible trade partner. Agreed. Here’s hoping something happens. That said, and to your point, the Guardian’s Rosario with his league level pedigree makes a most sense.
C Yards Jeff;
Not sure the Guardians trade Rosario. But if they would and are looking for a starting pitcher in return, one of the 3 Angels LH pitchers would be attractive: Detmers, Suarea, or Sandeoval. Cleveland has no LH in their starting rotation, nor a high level LH prospect.
As JoeBrady wrote: “Cleveland wins all their trades”. They’re looking for a young starting pitcher they can work with. They have a criteria they want.
I think I’m slowly becoming a Guardians guy. LOL. It’s a passion that’ll never rival my affinity for the black and orange, of course, but definitely someone to follow this off season. Cheers!
Get Edman from STL. They have surplus of middle infielders. Edman:6.3 war, 90+runs, 30-40 2b, gold glove, 1st year of arbitration. There’s they’re lead off guy. Bump Julio, France, and suraz and Raleigh down a spot. That’s a solid first 5. Get Releigh more DH AB’s, need his bat in the line up.
DON’T need a high priced FA(2b), albatross contract for 7-9 years.
Even like Wong vs $$$ FA
The two guys I’ve thought make the most sense to target are Edman and Wong, as well.
Edman would obviously be much more expensive. Something like Flexen and two top 10 org prospects may be considered but ultimately I doubt STL moves him.
Interesting speculation. That’s about all there is to do between now and year-end at least.
I see the Mariners standing pat on just about everything they possibly can.
No need for improvement. All they actually need, or hope to have, is to get Mitch Haniger re-signed at a reasonale salary.
While I don’t think they’ll stand pat…..I’m not sure they need to rush out and trade Flexen for a marginal upgrade at 2B. Why not just resign Frazier for 3-4 million and keep Flexen as rotation insurance?
Why not indeed, bearproof?
Makes more sense.
Where and when do you play a $8m #6-SP?
At that price he’s trade bait, just to much for a #6 or BP guy.
When you are more than 50 million below your budget threshold and are in a championship contender window. The risk of losing a couple wins because you don’t have SP depth makes the insurance worth it. Could be the difference been making playoffs and not.
Also….Rosario is making 9 mill, so trading Flexen for him isn’t really a huge cost cutting move.
I’m not saying 8 million on a #6 starter is the best use of resources…BUT it’s not such a huge number that it forces you to go out and make a trade no matter what. If the trade doesn’t improve the squad, no reason to do it just for budget reasons.
@bear proof- M’s need to add a big bat. 2B makes the most sense with that position open. Don’t think we can afford to go into 2023 with Frazier at 2B. We need offense too badly. Spend. M’s are way off 2018’s payroll. Get it back to that level.
There are no big bat 2Bs on the market…..that’s the Issue. Frazier a borderline top 3 free agent at 2b.
Can’t but what’s not for sale.
(Trade however…..)
Well like Dipoto said at the end of season press conference, the preference is to pay a big time SS to play 2B but they also have to be open to the idea of moving JP over to 2B.
I think you’re on to something regarding a possible trade. Hollander and Dipoto both said they expect to be very active in trade discussions, which is unsurprising. In fact, I think there could even be a greater chance they land a middle infielder that way instead.
I really like the idea of Edman as a target but he’s not exactly an offensive powerhouse. I would be happy to see us overpay to land Jazz but I just don’t think there’s a realistic package that could do it.
Because our time is now and we need to improve our offense in multiple places. Our infield is a liability offensively. (Specifically 2B and 1B)
Which 2b free agent represents huge upgrade of frazier’s 2.6 WAR projection?
That’s the issue.
It’s real longshot we can sign Turner to play SS, let alone convince him to move to 2b.
Stand pat Jerry? Hmmm
He should consider it. They have the money and enough farm system left they shouldn’t need to trade all their extra MLB talent away.
We can’t afford to stand pat now. The contention window is open. It’s very unlikely we win a World Series with the roster as currently constructed, so Dipoto should increase those odds by adding talent before guys like Gilbert, Raleigh, Kirby become arb-eligible and before France hits free agency.
I didn’t think through what I wrote, I certainly didnt mean they should do nothing, just on the starting pitching side, especially in terms of trading mlb quality depth. they should just pay for their other upgrades with cash or less than mlb level trade pieces.
Early this season I wrote that the Mariners couldn’t be a contender with Robbie Ray as their ace….which is where ESPN had him on their Mariners Depth Chart.
I looked at their Mariners Depth Chart a few weeks ago – Robbie Ray is now 4th under Starting Pitchers.
MLB goes through cycles regarding winning teams. In the next 3-5 years these will be sustainable contenders in the AL:
AL East – Orioles
AL Central – Guardians
AL West – Mariners
Other teams will jump in and out. But those 3 have so many good young players…..
Agreed
In no universe is Seattle in front of Houston in 3-5 years. They finished 16 games back of Houston right now and have shown zero signs of slowing down.
jjd002;
I do think The Astros will be in contention for another year or two. But at some point all ML teams slow down some, and Houston’s has been going since they first contended in 2015. 7 years is an amazing feat. Multiple key players get old – they can replace a Correa in 2022, but when Bregman, Verlander, and Altuve all it a wall around the same time…..
Astros are a machine. They draft and internationally sign as well as any team. When a Cole or Springer or Correa leave, young guys step in. The trades they make (youth for veteran Verlander) or (extra piece for youth Alvarez) are well thought out and prove worthy. They don’t overpay and keep the hardline on 5 years or less on resigning their players. I’m not an Astros fan, but certainly respect what they have built. AL champs 4 of the past 6 years and loaded to keep that going for a while.
How about the universe where the Mariners just held Altuve to an 0-for-16 and 1 BB in the ALDS? How about the fact that the Mariners farm system is 100% better now than Houston’s farm system. You have to look deeper to know the difference, but the Mariners will be signing Felnin Celestin this offseason and he’s touted as the best SS to be signed internationally in well over a decade, Wander Franco included. Axel Sanchez and Cole Young look promising at SS, as well. Add in Lazaro Montes who was trained by the same person as Yordan Alvarez and considers him a more athletic version of Alvarez, that should help. Gabriel Gonzalez and Jonatan Clase are very real OF prospects. The Mariners churn pitchers as well as any team in baseball and have proven they can draft from the middle to the late part of the 1st round and find some of the best talent available.
Here’s some facts since Dipoto’s first draft as the GM of the Mariners and how each franchise has done because this has a lot to do with sustainability, especially when you consider the core in Houston was drafted and built by a number of guys who are no longer there and the change in architects is notable over the last few drafts. Honestly the Astros haven’t had a good draft since 2015 and there’s not a ton to get excited about in their farm currently.
Astros’ 1st round picks # = (#), career fWAR (#), awards, Team total drafted bWAR…
2016 – Forrest Whitley (17) – Unranked Prospect – 1.0 bWAR
2017 – J.B. Bukauskas (15) – (-0.3 fWAR) – 7.6 bWAR
2018 – Seth Beer (28) – (-0.8 fWAR) – 4.3 bWAR
2019 – Korey Lee (32) – (-0.3 fWAR) – 0.4 bWAR
2020 – Punished for Cheating (No 1st round pick) – 0.0 bWAR
2021 – Punished for Cheating (No 1st round pick) – 0.0 bWAR
2022 – Drew Gilbert (28) – Unranked Prospect – 0.0 bWAR
Astros have added 13.3 bWAR through the draft since 2016*
Mariners’ 1st round picks # = (#), career bWAR, awards, Team total drafted bWAR…
2016 – Kyle Lewis (11) – (2.6 fWAR), ROY award – 2.6 bWAR
2017 – Evan White (17) – (-0.6 fWAR), GG award – 0.2 bWAR
2018 – Logan Gilbert (14) – (5.4 fWAR) – 8.8 bWAR
2019 – George Kirby (20) – (3.0 fWAR) – 1.4 bWAR
2020 – Emerson Hancock (6) – Unranked Prospect – 0.0 bWAR
2021 – Harry Ford (12) – #65 in MLB.com Top 100 – 0.0 bWAR
2022 – Cole Young (21) – Unranked Prospect – 0.0 bWAR
Mariners have added 13 bWAR through the draft since 2016*
Springer was drafted #11 in 2011
Correa was drafted #1 in 2012
McCullers was drafted #41 in 2012
Appel #1 in 2013 was a horrible pick
Aiken #1 in 2014 was a horrible pick
Bregman #2 and Tucker #5 in 2015 for not signing previous picks
Whitley #17 in 2016 was a horrible pick
Alvarez (signed by Dodgers) acquired through trade
Aside from the 2015 draft pick where they had like $18.5M to spend, they have failed to draft well at all as team since almost a decade ago. Sure they’ve hit on some role players like McCormick, Meyers, and J.D. Davis, while finding regulars like Straw, Laureano, Kemp, and Patrick Sandoval, those guys have dried up since 2016 and more importantly, they have shown that aside from George Springer who fell because of strikeout concerns before everyone seemed to stop caring about that, they haven’t found a star, let alone an organizational cornerstone outside the Top 5 overall picks.
Their international signings have failed to produce much offensive talent aside from a mature Yuli Gurriel and an unwanted Altuve due to his size. All of this points towards a well of talent that is drying up while only Tucker and Alvarez turned 25 in 2022, Bregman is going to be 29, and Pena will already be 25 next year. Altuve is 32, Gurriel is 38, while Brantley, Maldonado and Castro are 35 each.
On the pitching side, Verlander is going to be 40, if he comes back to Houston, Valdez 29, McCullers 29, Urquidy 28, Garcia, and Javier will be 26 each. Only Brown, Abreu, and Seth Martinez will be under 30 years old in the bullpen. With the exception of Luis Garcia, everyone of their starters are going to be in arbitration starting in 2023, which means the rotation is going to start getting very expensive and they’ll have to start picking-and-choosing where to spend their resources for the team.
The Mariners on the other hand only have one returning position player over 30 and that’s Eugenio Suarez, while Moore who’ll be 30 and Tom Murphy who turns 32 next year will be the only players as of now who will be exiting their prime in the next couple years. On the pitching side Ray and Marco turns 31, Castillo will be 30, Flexen turns 28, then there’s Gilbert who will be 26, Kirby and Brash turn 25, while Munoz will only be 24. Sewald (33), Festa (30), and Sadler (32) will be the only relievers thirty or older. everyone else is in their 20s. This of course doesn’t account for any of the big relief arms headed up through the farm like Woo, Macko, Campbell, and possibly Berroa (if he doesn’t stay a starter).
* = I only counted all positive WAR and only negative WAR for players signed to $1M bonus or more because the Reds choosing to give a roster spot to Robert Dugger is their fault not the Mariners who only saw him as organizational filler as an 18th rounder. I also left off players who were later drafted again like Rutschman who was drafted out of H.S. by Seattle and then later drafted an signed by the Orioles, his WAR was not counted. If the player was traded, their WAR still counts like Toro counts towards Houston, not Seattle.
For the quick answer, the Mariners played Houston 19 times in the first half of the year while dealing with major injuries and suspensions, Julio was getting strike zone screwed the first time they played and the last two times he was playing through an injury to his hand from sliding into a based. Add in the improvements of Castillo being added to the rotation, yet never getting to pitch him against the Astros during the regular season would’ve swung some of those games.
Verlander made 6 of the 19 starts against Seattle, hardly an even disbursement of games. The thing about the schedule is by playing at different times of the year, it is more representative of the talent on the team because injuries come and go and the scores even themselves out, but when you play all of your games in about 3 months times, you are not going to see all the breaks that hurt and help a team.
The Mariners weren’t even totally healthy and beat the Yankees 4 out of 6 games. Cleveland lost 6 out of 7 to the Mariners and the both the Braves and Mets lost 2 out of 3 to Seattle. The M’s never faced the Dodgers, but out of the four 99+ win teams they did play, Seattle had a combined 8-4 record winning every series, so why would Houston be any different?! Mark my words, next year Seattle wins 50% or more of the games with Houston during the regular season and finishes 1st or 2nd in the AL West!
Would love to get Edman from St. Louis. Not sure he’s the impact bat the M’s are looking for. But trade for Edman and sign Judge for 8/300 and that’s a solid off-season.
Yuck, I liked Judge coming out of Fresno, but not at 31 years old and almost $40M/year. Yeah, he’s great right now, go check Chris Davis and his monster year and what followed! Three things that don’t age well…
1) Big bodies – Judge is 6’7″ and 280 lbs.
2) High strikeouts – Aaron is good for 175-200 in his prime, how many is that at 35?
3) Poor contact – Maxing out at 73.4% in 2021, he’s down to 72.2 in 2022 for contact rate.
Trout for instance has never had a contact rate below 79.9 until the last two years he was injured and at 31 the last two years have been 73.4% and 72.9%. Right now Trout’s contract looks really bad over the next 8 years, he’s playing injured and is still matching a healthy Judge in contact rate. If the contact rates drops even a little, Judge is going to be an anchor around the neck of his team.
Chris Davis at 27 hit 53 bombs, at 29 he hit 47 HRs and signed his big 7 years deal. First year he declined and hit 38 homers. The next 6 years he hit 26, 16, 12, 0, and retired with $46M on his contract from basically shame of not being able to even buy a hit. Davis’ contact rate was 69..1% when he hit 53 HRs, 67% when he hit 47 HRs. Once Davis turned 30, his contact rate swung between 62.9% and 66.7% for all but one season.
When it comes do Judge I would do a $40M/1 year deal or a $75M/2 year deal, or $100/3 years would be the max. If he wants 6-7+ years he needs to either do incentive based or steeply reduced after 33-34 years old. I would love the Mariners to add 2022 Aaron Judge, but that’s not what this contract will get the buyer, it’s not if he becomes an albatross but how soon. Just like the Pujols deal with the Angels 11 years ago.
I’m not so sure Rosario is ‘surely an upgrade over Frazier’
Frazier projected WAR: 2,6
Rosario projected WAR. 2.4 (career high)
Career WAR per/600 AB:
Frazier: 2.3
Rosario: 1.5
I might favor slightly rosario going forward, but I’d probably rather have frazier back on a cheap contract and flexen than rosario,
2023 Adam frazier might be just as safe a bet to be an upgrade of 2022 Adam frazier as Rosario is.
I’d throw 3-4 Million toward Frazier and have him as backup plan in case none of the top tier SS’s want to sign.
I wouldn’t hate a flexen/rosario trade….but I’m not sure Rosario moves the needle much over Frazier.
I love how you forgot to mention that he had a 1.62 ERA in the bullpen once he was moved there.
ERA in the bullpen is more volatile because it depends on who comes in after you. If you give up a single and walk two guys and the next pitchers strikes out the next three in order, your ERA is untouched. As a starter, you are more likely to have to get yourself out of jams. The only ERA that I trust is starters to a certain degree (be careful to see how quickly the manager goes to the bullpen), some guys wait far too long, and the only other guy who controls his ERA is the true closers like Diaz.
I love how you forgot to mention how well his ERA was when he moved to the bullpen. 1.62 good.
So did you bring this up to show how he could be an impact reliever for the Orioles if they need to rotate someone into the bullpen?
I’d be cautious to trade any pitching. Someone is bound to get hurt or struggle and that strength could be a weakness real fast.
Mets
Jeff McNeil screams target for the Mariners and Mets need some pitching depth behind Scherzer if/when DeGrom tests free agency.
Seems like a win win scenario for both teams.
Mets circle back and bring back old friend Rosario or find a stop gap to play 2B and bring back some key pieces like Nimmo.
Chris Flexen, Alberto Rodriguez, & Michael Morales to the Rays for Brandon Lowe & Austin Shenton.
Lowe is coming off an injury plagued 2022 season and he is under affordable control for 4 more years but it begins to kickup quite a bit in ‘24. Mariners get a solid hitting 2B
Austin Shenton: Mariners get their local boy back to be their 3B of the future.
Flexen is a very solid strike throwing innings eater that Tampa always seems to do really well with.
Alberto Rodriguez is a very solid (OF/1B) prospect. Solid tools across the board. Should be in AA in ‘23.
Michael Morales is a protectable right handed pitcher that was drafted out of high school in the 4th round in the ‘21 draft. He was committed to Vanderbilt.
Why not call up the twins? Young player Royce Lewis is Dipoto’s kind of guy. Plays short, second, third and flirted with outfield corners. Yes Correa is likely leaving but the Twins need pitching badly and already have a strong infield without Lewis even in the conversation. Seattle would need to add and who knows. Lewis might be a ROY candidate that might bring along a draft pick or falter but cash spent in off-season could fill holes. But Seattle’s MO is to gamble and not spend the big bucks. Until they show me they can sign that big bat in free agency they’ll keep gambling
Mainly because Royce Lewis screams injury prone bust. We already have Lewis, we don’t need to build a disable list of All-Stars. Each team kind of has their own type of players, The Twins like high velo/big rpm pitchers and super control pitchers and not a lot in-between. As for hitters, they go for toolsy injury prone guys (Lewis & Buxton) or guys that have one carrying tool like monster power (Sano, Sanchez, etc.), high bat to ball skills (Arraez).
As for a big bat, there is none to get… Judge will be like an albatross contract in three to four years, Trea Turner has vocally stated that aside from maybe staying with the Dodgers, he wants to get back to the East Coast, Swanson hasn’t said as much, but it’s assumed he wants to either play for the Braves or somewhere closer to home. Correa isn’t worth the money and Bogaerts is going to be even worse over the course of a deal. I’m glad that we missed on Seager, Bryant, Story, Semien, Baez, etc. Good players that age well never reach free agency. For instance, Julio.
Only exception is the Nationals and Orioles players that they promoted at such a young age, but even then Harper and Machado are the only guys I’ve felt strongly about pursuing in free agency in the last few years. The rest all get hard passes. Watch when Rutschman walks in 5 years since he just won a full year of control with his breakout season. I’d bet the following year Gunnar walks too, if they can’t get Rutschman to buy into the plan. Adley is going to either walk in free agency or he’s going to get a massive deal to change the narrative about the organization. The selling of the team could help, but it also might unsettle the players needing to sign.
Twins don’t go for high velocity, go look at their starting rotation the last 3 years. Flexin fits their mold. Big bats, they don’t sign anything that swings a bat unless it’s coming with minimal cost. They’ve traded for every bat that they didn’t draft or sign internationally. You can’t say Julio ages well, he’s 21! Only bats that Mariners can say was good they traded for, France, Suarez, Winker if you can say, Frazier, Haniger, Trammell, Kelnic, Crawford, and Santana. They don’t sign bats they trade for them. Most of those trades are a gamble and they’ll keep gambling on guys like a Royce Lewis until they change their MO. Last off-season they had a opportunity to change that landscape but signed Ray and that was pretty much it. All bats came from trades just like how this off-season likely will be as well. When they change how they work I’ll be surprised
Really I’d like Seattle to call the angels about Trout. Be an interesting idea but how realistic? Otahni is going into his last year and the Angels are a disaster. Trout might like to get some postseason play and he’s proven he can already hit in Seattle. This is a long shot but weirder things have happened.
This article links to the wrong Luis Castillo. It links to Luis Castillo with the Detroit Tigers.
MLBTR is notorious for that.
With the exception of Castillo and Ray all of their pitchers are young controllable arms so why would they trade any of them the way pitchers get hurt these days? Every expert wants to trade for over priced bats. I say forget that and just sign someone if you wanna pay up. Why give up your young studs while many of them are still not ready? Let them gain the experience in the Seattle system.
Exactly. Mariners just opened their window of contention and will definitely want to make a huge push forward for another, and hopefulky deeper, playoff run. They’re not going to sell off their pitching pieces. Gonzales and Flexen are reliable innings eaters on the back end. They had insanely good luck with health from their arms this year. It’s unreasonable to expect that luck to continue, so having that reliable depth to plug in as needed is important.
Orioles make a lot of sense. Rutschman, henderson and mullins are untouchable but they have a lot of prospects and also mlb pieces they could trade.
The orioles also definitely need pitching, behind grayson they lack credible SP prospects.
Why not go a little bold here by seattle and trade kirby, Hancock and a low ranked pitching prospect for mountcastle (or one of santander and hays), cowser (of, 44th prospect of fangraphs) and one of Joseph ortiz, jordan westburg or connor norby(all 3 like bottom part of top100 or close to it). All of those prospects are mlb ready or very close to it (at AAA last year).
Imo that would help both orgs. Sure losing cowser and one of westburg, ortiz and norby would hurt but orioles still have two of those IF prospects left and losing kirby and hancock would hurt the mariners but their IF could absolutely be stacked and they still would have castillo, ray, gilbert and flexen left and could use the financial flexibility gained by having those cheap orioles infielders to buy more pitching plus they should be able to develope more pitching.
To get Kirby, you’d have to give up something premium like Rutschman or Henderson, plus a couple throw-ins, or Grayson and a few big pieces. There is no such thing as untouchable when you are talking about possibly the most coveted arm in the league when combining years of control, cost, and stuff.
The Orioles would have to overpay for Kirby because he was the 3rd best AL pitcher by WAR in the 2nd half of the season behind only Verlander and Ohtani. Add into that his scoreless save in Game 2 of the Blue Jays series then figure in the 7 inning shutout of the Astros in Game 3 of the ALDS, and finally remember he comes with 6 more seasons of control.
When you have a pitcher that has elite stuff and control, comes with maximum service control, and has a flawless record in the postseason, you can pretty much name your price. I’d imagine it would take Bradish to immediately fill the rotation spot, plus either Henderson or more likely Rodriguez and Holliday. Both would represent about a 10% overpay.
There is no way they take Cowser and his insane strikeouts (174 Ks) or Westburg and his almost as nutty strikeout totals (147 Ks). To be perfectly honest, I would probably only do the Bradish, Rodriguez, and Holliday trade. It would give the Mariners more upside on the backend of their rotation, but it would also help the Orioles convince free agents that they are ready to compete.
No way in hell you’re getting Holliday+ G-Rod + Bradish.
The O’s would rather just develop a pitcher than give them away. M’s and O’s don’t really line up
Agreed. I don’t think either of those suggestions work, plus it’s not too often two contenders line up on a deal structured this way. Then when they do (such as the Bader/Montgomery deal), it’s so odd it seems like something you only would have seen on MLB The Show or OOTP.
Kirby is thr next Ace after Castillo. He’s that good. Not even the Nats could pry him out for Soto. You’re high and dreaming!
Flexen and a pair of non-40-man prospects to the Cubs for Ian Happ. Happ has one year left on his deal and can handle LF until the Mariners decide if Kelenic is a bust or not. Flexen would take the #4 starter spot in Chicago to start the season, but also profiles as the type of multi-inning reliever the Cubs are developing in their bullpen should they get aggressive with TOR signings.
Meanwhile the Cubs need to open up some outfield capacity for guys ready to move up from AAA and compete for playing time.
Mariners were insanely lucky with pitcher injuries this year. IIRC reliever Casey Sadler was the only one who missed significant time in 2022. It’d be foolish to expect that luck to continue, and that’s where Flexen comes in handy as a reliable putcher you can plug into a rotation spot for a few starts. Honestly, I believe that the Mariners aren’t going to subtract much from their pitching staff.