For the second straight offseason, the Marlins will head into the winter needing to overhaul their offense. Miami added four everyday players to the lineup last offseason, signing Jorge Soler and Avisaíl García while acquiring Jacob Stallings and Joey Wendle via trade. The hope was that quartet would elevate the hitting enough to compete for a playoff spot behind their excellent starting rotation.
That hasn’t panned out. All four of those players underperformed, and Miami’s offensive performance has barely changed. After hitting .241/.308/.386 last season (excluding pitchers), the Fish carry a .230/.294/.363 team line into play Saturday. The dip in raw numbers is partially attributable to the league-wide downturn in offense. By measure of wRC+, the Marlins were 11 points below league average offensively last season; they’ve been 12 points below average this year. That’s obviously not what the front office had in mind, and it’s no coincidence they’ve lost more than 90 games for the fourth straight 162-game season.
Fixing the lineup is certain to be a priority in the coming months, and the Marlins are preparing to attack the offseason in a different manner. Barry Jackson and Craig Mish of the Miami Herald report the team plans to prioritize adding high-contact hitters and faster runners to the roster. According to the Herald, the increased emphasis on bat-to-ball skills is rooted both in the team’s spacious home ballpark and the forthcoming limitations on defensive shifting, which will theoretically slightly improve the league’s batting average on balls in play.
Obviously, the Marlins won’t take so rigid an approach as to rule out adding power hitters entirely. Yet the club’s two big free agent acquisitions last year, Soler and García, are low-contact sluggers. Soler struck out at a roughly average 23.6% clip last year, but he’d fanned in over 26% of his plate appearances in each of the three prior seasons. He’s gone down on strikes 29.4% of the time his first season in Miami. García had struck out at a roughly average level every year from 2019-21, but that’s largely attributable to an extremely aggressive approach that often leads to early-count balls in play. He’d made contact on less than 70% of his swings in each of those seasons, well below the 75-76% league marks. García has struck out in a personal-worst 28.3% of his plate appearances this year.
Both players will be back in South Florida next season. Soler has two years and $24MM remaining on his deal. He can technically opt out after this season but certainly won’t do so after hitting .207/.295/.400 through 306 plate appearances. García is under contract for three more guaranteed years at $12MM annually and is also due a $5MM buyout on a 2026 club option.
Miami will need more production from that duo next season, but they’re not the only high-strikeout players in the lineup. Miami’s 24% team strikeout rate is the fifth-highest in the majors. Of the 16 players who tallied 150+ plate appearances for the team, 11 have struck out at a clip greater than the 22.4% league mark.
It’s sensible enough the Marlins would look for some more balance to their lineup, although it’s apparent that putting the ball in play doesn’t inherently make a player a good hitter. Of Miami’s five hitters with a lower than average strikeout rate, four (Wendle, Stallings, Miguel Rojas and Jon Berti) have been below-average hitters overall. Berti has stolen 38 bases, but he’s slugging just .330. None of Wendle, Stallings or Rojas have an on-base percentage above .300. The only of Miami’s high-contact hitters who has an above-average wRC+ is backup catcher Nick Fortes, who has played in less than half the team’s games.
In any event, it’s clear the Marlins have to find some way to improve the offense. Hopefully getting a full season from star second baseman Jazz Chisholm Jr. would be a great start, but the rest of the lineup has question marks. Soler and García will be back to factor into the corner outfield and designated hitter mix. Garrett Cooper has had another solid season when healthy and could be the primary first baseman, although he’s entering his final year of arbitration eligibility and figures to draw some renewed interest on the trade market after his name came up in rumors this past summer. Wendle, Stallings and Brian Anderson are all arbitration-eligible and could be retained, but they’ll be due raises on this year’s salaries ($4.55MM, $2.45MM and $4.475MM, respectively) if tendered contracts.
Berti seems likely to be retained but is a better fit for a super-utility role than as an everyday option at a specific position. Rojas is a team leader and under contract for $5MM, but he’s coming off his worst hitting season since taking over as the primary shortstop. Young players like Jesús Sánchez and Bryan De La Cruz have shown flashes of promise but been far too inconsistent overall.
Miami also faces annual payroll questions. While they’re expected to see a boost over this year’s $80MM mark, it isn’t clear how far owner Bruce Sherman is willing to push spending. With over $51MM in guaranteed commitments on the 2023 books and a hefty arbitration class, there may not be a ton of financial leeway for the front office to add in free agency. There’ll still be higher-contact bats available for relatively cheap, of course. Players like Ben Gamel, David Peralta and old friend Donovan Solano — who has reinvented himself as a bat-first utilityman after serving as a defense-oriented second baseman in Miami — will hit the open market and surely won’t break the bank. A run at someone like Brandon Nimmo or even Andrew Benintendi may ultimately prove beyond what the Marlins deem appropriate in free agency, particularly with Soler and García already on the books.
There’s also the likelihood of the Fish again turning to the trade market for help, of course. Miami is likely to explore dealing from its enviable starting pitching depth to address the offense. NL Cy Young favorite Sandy Alcantara won’t be moved — Jon Heyman of the New York Post unsurprisingly relayed this week that Alcantara is “as close to untouchable as you can find” — but players like Pablo López or Braxton Garrett could be dealt for controllable bats.
It’ll be a busy offseason for general manager Kim Ng and her staff. Ng is entering her third winter in that position, but she’s more firmly in control of baseball operations than ever with CEO Derek Jeter and vice president of player development Gary Denbo departing the organization in recent months. The departures of Jeter and Denbo could also explain some of the organization’s philosophical changes in roster construction.
There are additionally going to be some changes in non-playing personnel. The club has already announced skipper Don Mattingly won’t be back next year, and the team made a number of dismissals in their scouting and player development staff yesterday. Andy Slater of Fox Sports 640 first reported that director of professional scouting Hadi Raad was being let go (Twitter link). Jackson and Jordan McPherson at the Herald report that director of player development Geoff DeGroot and five additional members of the professional scouting department have been dismissed.
So, guys that bunt a lot? Maybe Joey Gallo? He can get contact frequently with bunts and gets on base after it.
Hmmm. Two historically “high-contact hitters”
1. Don Mattingly
2. Derek Jeter
Either they can’t teach hitting or you can’t get something out of nothing.
Jeter was the Marlins hitting coach? Mattingly was a good manager? How did I miss all that?
Because you are obtuse, clearly.
Fat jokes are not nice.
Or maybe, just maybe, you just weren’t paying attention. Don’t be afraid to wise up
they need high contact hitters, power hitters, a catcher, a center fielder, relievers, a manager, and possibility a new owner.
Nick Fortes has been one of the best catchers in baseball this year. What the hell do they need another catcher for?
Surely you didn’t think Nick Fortes is one of the best hitting catchers in baseball lol. He’s decent, but teams like the Braves and Dodgers have better back-ups.
Both the Braves catchers and one of the Dodgers catchers made the All-Star team. Great comparison!
Do I think? No, but the statistics say he is. I’m not sure where you think you’re gonna find another catcher with a 1.3 WAR with just 200 at bats. The catchers you reference barely have a better WAR based on games played. And this guy is a rookie and those guys are not. If he played over a full season at that sustained performance he’d be statistically a top 10 catcher right now.
@Smacky – it’s a comparison he made when he said he’s one of the best hitting catchers in the league
@fred-3, sarcasm is a powerful tool
Sounds like the Cubs last offseason
If nothing else, the Marlins could be fun to watch next year with a lot of small ball and great pitching.
Sounds like the Cubs last offseason.
The Cubs landed one of the best in Nick Madrigal and it’s yet to be seen how the Marlins fare this off season.
Madrigal’s career minor league OPS is about 750 and next year he’s 26. He’s hardly “one of the best.”
He has been hurt every season he has been up, look at his numbers at Oregon State, he might have led the NCAA in hits his junior season, he was off to a great start with the Sox before tearing his hamstring, hit well above .300 collectively,
Had a tough season with the Cubs, they platooned him most of the year, and being traded from the Sox kind of jammed him up a little, I think he was in a real good role with the Sox, where he could be a team captain at a young age, cause that’s the kind of player he is, but the Cubs have stymeed that a little.
Bad trade for the White Sox, Madrigal probably going to be a hall of famer.
So high strikeout guys aren’t a recipe for success? Prioritize pitchers who throw strikes as well.
Hmm so you dont want any hitters striking out, but you want pitchers who strike everyone out….my brother….can you see how stupid this line of thinking is?
Wut?
@A’sfaninUk – might want to re-read what you were responding too. Your line of thinking doesn’t make sense. How are the two connected? Their pitchers won’t be pitching to their own batters… Besides that, @put said to look for pitchers that throw strikes, which is really want you want your pitchers to do. Guys who pitch to contact can get smoked pretty bad if your control isn’t that good and your pitches don’t dance.
Do you think that mlb playing around with the balls this year contributed to poor offensive numbers
That comment can be taken in two ways …
Hahaha, you ain’t lyin!
This has disaster written a over it.
The franchise has been a disaster from top to bottom for almost two decades. Some things just never change
Soler/Garcia to high-contact hitters the next. That’d be fine if you signed each to a one-year deal but Soler won’t opt out with his year. Meanwhile, your trade bait (SP) are getting arm injuries.
How about start by not making terrible off season moves again?
How about sending Jazz to the White Sox for Andrew Vaughn or Eloy Jimenez?
They already have Eloy Jimenez. His name is Jorge Soler.
I don’t know about that Eloy was .300/.360/.520 this season in the games he played this season.
Eloy has zero HR titles, get your homerism out of here smh
He is 25, he hasn’t played a full season, HR titles are hard to come by in the AL anymore, but he can hit the ball.
That says a lot about your baseball knowledge. SMH
I think Vaughn is a better match but both are quality contact hitters.
Vaughn ain’t leaving town either, lol.
Terrible ownership. Terrible sports town. No chance to ever win.
Do you mean except for 2003, when they beat the Yankees in the World Series?
or 1997 when they beat the Indians?
No way is a Houston guy calling Miami a garbage town lmaoooo and the Marlins have more titles than the sad little 1* Stros have kiddo
Brandon Nimmo is an interesting name to look out for in the offseason. He provides great defense in the center field while being a solid-above average batter. With the Mets already having great hitting combined with the fact that nearly their whole starting pitchers + their closer are FA’s and will need to be paid may cause him to sign elsewhere
Nimmo may not sign with the Mets, but there’s no chance he signs with the Marlins. They do not often spend big, and any time they do, they end up trading the player. Players know that a free agent contract with the Marlins means you’ll be playing for someone else within a year or so.
Pump the brakes on your use of “great” there, Nimmo is not a great defensive CF and the LOLMets are certainly not a great offensive team.
Guardians are changing the way rosters are built and games are played. High energy small ball is much more fun to watch than beer league strikeout rosters. Sort of like when obp was cheap and everyone tried to play money ball.
You are missing the point. It may be more fun to watch, but its winning games that matter. Its not like Cleveland doubled their attendance. It did allow them to compete while on a limited budget. That is the point.
That and being in a division with the Royals and Tigers. That certainly helps. Also having the best pitching staff in the AL helps. I’m pretty sure their contact hitting is way down the list. There’s a reason teams try for three true outcomes. It just works best.
In nurse follars;
I replied to you but this guy keeps deleting my comments for no reason.
You are correct.
Well we got bigger FN bases next year… and a pitch clock, everybody going to be running.
Pablo Lopez would probably get them most of the way to acquiring Danny Jansen from the Blue Jays. It’s a nice fit for both clubs.
Very true! Except the marlins don’ t need another Catcher.
Three way deal. Lots of teams would love Danny Jansen.
Many w0uld disagree, considering the Marlins have received replacement level production and a ghastly 82 wRC+ from the catcher position.
It’s perhaps not their biggest need, but an obvious place they could upgrade.
Jays would have send something significant along with Jansen.
They have the same amount of control and Jansen is rocking the best wRC+ in the league for catchers. It’s safe to say he has more value than Lopez.
You’re right. Didn’t even realize it.
Marlins should absolutely send Pablo, plus Sandy, pay both their salaries for the lifetime of their Jays tenure plus send every competitive balance draft picks to the Jats for the next 5 years for the future MVP in Jansen.
Why the sarcasm? I just pointed out a rather obvious fact.
If this trade is made, I would expect Lopez and a mid level prospect for Jansen.
The sarcasm was warranted. A starting pitcher that took the ball 32 times is worth far more than a backup catcher with a career 99 OPS+ that will be going into his age 28 season. Jansen and a MLB ready starter like Zulueta for Lopez seems realistic
To call Jansen a backup is disingenuous, considering he’s on the same team as Alejandro Kirk and another league wide top 10 prospect in Gabriel Moreno.
He’s fantastic defensively and has been one of the best hitting catchers in the league. That he has the same WAR as Lopez in a partial season really drives home that point.
Teams value controllable, elite performers at up the middle positions and they pay big for it in trades.
A controllable, reliable, mid rotation starter is indeed a high price to pay, but other teams will do it if the Marlins don’t.
5 years in the league. 241 PA. He is a backup. No one is giving up a middle of the rotation starter for a backup catcher.
241 PA this season. Ranked 52nd in defense this season, 37th last season, and 41st over the last 4 seasons. baseballprospectus.com/leaderboards/catching/ He has a 99 career OPS+. Last season he backed up Reese McGuire. In 2019-2020 he was the starter and put up a 74 OPS+.
It’s hard to take anything you say seriously when you don’t even know that he was injured this season.
Watch a few games before you make uninformed comments and cherry pick stats from 3 seasons ago in a futile effort to defend them.
I may be way off base with my thinking here, so some of you “wily vets” like me on here help pick me up. But, does anyone else get the sense that teams are almost returning to the way that baseball was played in the late 70s-early 80s? Speed, small ball (always hated the term) good defense, gap hitters, good pitching? Is the shift really going to create this event?
No, teams aren’t, at least not yet. The Guardians do it out of necessity (power hitters are expensive) but that’s not why they won their division. As the Royals did back in the day. I guess the Marlins are kind of in the same boat next year. But that hardly qualifies as a league-wide trend. The rich teams are tripling and quadrupling down on patience and power, because that works best.
I appreciate your reply. Which led me to this thought? “Smaller” market teams, like the 3 you list here, is that their counter to the big spenders, big bopper types? Develop pitchers who can “pitch” as opposed to throw, and put a premium on defense, bunting, speed and contact? Obviously, parks influence that decision somewhat, I believe it would be interesting to see data, or see teams (A’s) tailor that type of team in Oakland, given that park, or gap hitters in Colorado with the massive outfield gaps. Just going “hmm” as I’m watching some college football.
All right, betcha Juan Pierre can still swing the bat….and how bout some HOF love for Kenny Lofton …
Would love the Marlins to fork over funds for Trea Turner and ponying up whats necessary to bring in CF Reynolds from Pittsburg while shoring up the ‘pen with a couple solid RP & CP ( Chapman)
More likely, Marlins over pay to trade for Kiermaier and over pay to sign jean Segura (after the phillies buy him out) , sign Trevor Rosenthal lavishly on a 1 year deal.
I can totally see the Marlins putting in a big offer for Reynolds. Perfect match really, as the Pirates need pitching prospects. Turner would cost them half their current payroll.
I think Chapman to the Marlins is an underrated theory. I hadn’t thought of it or read anything about it elsewhere, but he has pocketed tons of money, still throws hard, and maybe the biggest draw for him is that he’s Cuban and Miami is likely an attractive draw for Cuban players. Interesting.
How about Swanson. He will be half the price. 1/3 the production, but still a great player.
Should have gotten seager last offseason or Soto at this past deadline
Because both have turned out so well? Seager’s basically semi-retired and giving about that much effort in Texas. Soto is in the midst of his worst year ever.
Buddy, I have another seam
Yeah cause a team that ranks 24th out of 30 in HRs needs less power.
They need players to get on base, period
Seem to match up well with the Rangers, who have a slew of talented young position players. And, the Rangers need young, controllable starting pitching
McNeil for Alacantra. Sounds like a win win for both clubs.
You were able to do that trade in MLB The Show? Good for you!
There’s a typo in your own name, Big Joke. 🙂
Dumbest trade proposal I have ever seen. Even worse than all of the Yankees’ fans ideas when they would throw stuff out for Frazier and/or Andujar.
They have so many problems, this isn’t gonna solve it. They would be better off just dismantling the franchise and let someone else pop up a team in Vegas or literally anywhere else… more likely to have fans who actually care about baseball. Marlins fans are some of the worse “fans” in baseball. Not that they are jerks, more as they simply refuse to support that team good or bad
Right? Marlins fans truly are the worst in baseball. Like, how could they not support a team that’s been absolutely inept for two decades? Who doesn’t love watching their stars getting shipped out? Who doesn’t love the revolving door of managers? Who doesn’t love poor scouting and player development? Who doesn’t love getting their tax dollars stolen for a $1 billion stadium? Any other fanbase would gladly put up with that!
Both Florida MLB teams gotta go, correct. MLB in FL was a huge mistake.
An A’s fan telling me that baseball in FL was a mistake? That both FL teams should move? Am I being punked right now? LOL
lmfao coming from an A’s fan.
Miami is a top 12 media market. Las Vegas is #40. No one is moving to Las Vegas. “Worse”? When was the team good?
The Marlins have a new local TV deal ($50 million), a stadium naming rights deal $10 million), revenue sharing from the league ($70 million), and $125 million coming in from national TV deals, streaming, and national sponsorship deals. Before they open the gates they are over $250 million in revenue. They can afford to spend more than $80 million.
There’s no bloody way the Marlins local TV deal pays them $50m a season. That would be among the better ones in baseball. Also national TV deals aren’t anywhere near $125m, and I think your revenue sharing number is high, too.
Consider his screen name seam. Pretty much tells you where he’s coming from…………and his first name is “Way.”
The local TV deal is around 40-45 Mill and the naming rights deal is 10 mill annually. But yeah the others figures seem high. But would be good to know the real numbers.
Wrong. But thanks for trying. See my post below with links to the deal.
Maybe try Google or even read this website we are on now. mlbtraderumors.com/2021/04/latest-on-marlins-local… MLB earns $2.075 billion from national TV contracts plus streaming deals with Apple TV and NBC, plus $1.7 billion from 55 million worldwide subscribers to MLB.TV including the 31 million T-Mobile customers that get it free with their phone service and have activated the streaming service in the US in 2022 (out of 110 million T-Mobile customers). I will let you do the math. That doesn’t include advertising revenue on MLB.TV streaming. According to Forbes, in the decade leading up to the sale to Sherman and Jeter, the Marlins had received $676 million in revenue sharing. Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald reported during the most recent CBA negotiations that the Marlins had received over $70 million in revenue sharing in 2021. Do you think that went down substantially this season? Its amazing what you learn when you pay attention to the articles on this website and follow the links to the articles they quote.
Jazz is the only LHB on the team that can hit. Even with a righty heavy lineup, Miami has the lowest OPS against LHP this year. The team could use every type of hitting.
Exactly what I’m saying: if you have 9 hitters with an OPS over .800, you aren’t losing often. It doesn’t matter at all what that .800 OPS looks like, just get there,
They can have Twinkler he has been awful but maybe they go off previous work. He has been tossed multiple times. Arguing balls and strikes when it was an obvious strike. Started a fight because other team said something after he walked. Got fined multiple times for throwing gear down. I have heard how great he is a nice guy good teammate etc. Not much of that has shown up this season. I won’t even talk about his D. That was an extension they will regret unless they can add him into trade.
Contact hitter, power hitter, speedster, defensive wizard, tall, short, etc, it doesn’t matter. If the player is going to cost a lot, Marlins ownership is not interested. They’re all about keeping costs low and having just enough young talent to entice fans into thinking ‘maybe in a year or two, they’ll be good’.
I hate front offices who say stuff like “we need contact hitters” instead of saying “we need good hitters” – all this “lineup balance” stuff is the most arbitrary stuff of all time – you want 9 good hitters, it doesnt matter how it looks, just get all 9 hitters trying to get that OPS over .800 any way they can = more wins.
They want to sign some speedy, All Star caliber contact hitters who want to be on a perennial losing team and only want to get paid in the $3-4 million range.
Rodon is the player that fits best on the Marlins, a real one two that trump’s DeGrom and Scherzer. And then you can be free to trade from the pitching depth, but without signing a front of the line starter, you’ll never feel good about trading away your young starting pitching. But adding Rodon alleviates that trepidation to the point where you can think more objectively and make good trades.
Like most teams stuck in circles that are concerned about next years roster (something the Angels have majored in for over a decade), the Marlin’s need to begin to develop their own players – including pick-ups they get at the ML level. The Angeles are starting to do that so there’s finally hope for their fans.
I’d love to sit in that war room during discussions on players to sign:
“If we try to play like the Pirates in here, we will lose to the Pirates out there”
And
“Don’t make me pointcat Pete”
the pirates owner doesn’t care about wins or championships, his only goal is profit
Sure, the Marlins can offer as much money as they want, but any player wanting to win isn’t going to sign a long term deal to play there. Good free agents will get offers from contending teams.
The Marlins will have to hope for the more reclamation projects like Cavan Biggio or Nick Senzel and 6 year free agents that haven’t stuck anywhere. Meanwhile, the Braves keep winning, the Mets keep spending and the Phil’s keep philling. If the Marlins want to win, they have do something about the dimensions in that park to attract free agent hitters.