It’s time to shift our attention to the frozen wasteland of the offseason. With luck, the baseball gods will provide us with an amply warm stove to survive this bleak period without baseball. Already, we’ve seen a number of interesting, tinkering-on-the-margins trades. Teams are also preparing for the Rule 5 draft, set to take place on December 7.
Today, we’ll check in on some players who were not protected per MLB.com. By nature, none of these are consensus Top 100 prospects. In some cases, they had a better prospect pedigree in the past. In others, scouting reports don’t agree with the statistical output. Still others are clearly talented but have struggled to stay on the field.
We’ll cover half today and the other half next week.
Five Big Hype Prospects
Thad Ward, 25, SP, BOS (AA)
33.1 IP, 11.07 K/9, 3.78 BB/9, 2.43 ERA
Ward has scarcely pitched in official game action since 2019, accruing just 59.1 innings over the last three seasons due to Tommy John surgery. He appeared in the Arizona Fall League, adding 12.2 innings to his season total. He held opponents to a 2.84 ERA with 15 strikeouts and six walks.
Any team thinking about drafting Ward will have to consider his readiness for a full campaign after so much lost development time. The right-handed starter has a five-pitch repertoire. It’s believed he could play up in the bullpen as a cutter-slider specialist – they’re his best offerings. He also has a sinker, curve, and changeup, none of which are relief-quality offerings.
Victor Vodnik, 23, RP, ATL (AAA)
27.2 IP, 10.73 K/9, 5.20 BB/9, 2.93 ERA
Vodnik is a relief prospect with a cutting fastball. He has an adequate changeup and a work-in-progress slider. He pitched to a 2.93 ERA at Triple-A last season. He had issues with walks but made up for it by inducing over 50 percent ground balls. He’s allowed high BABIPs – a sign he might not have a high leverage future. He appears to be big league ready. Teams can look at him as comparable to the typical non-roster invitee.
Grant Lavigne, 23, 1B, COL (AA)
242 PA, 5 HR, .245/.347/.370
Lavigne had a strong AFL showing, but it wasn’t enough for the Rockies to protect him from the upcoming draft. The left-handed hitting first baseman is a discipline-first hitter. Although he has plus raw power, he doesn’t access it in-game very often. His swing path could use work, especially since his upper-cut hack has yielded a high ground ball rate. Between his size and discipline, a team might believe there is something salvageable here with the right instruction. A flatter, more adaptable swing plane could yield immediate rewards.
Jayden Murray, 25, SP/RP, HOU (AA)
108 IP, 8.3 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, 3.50 ERA
Part of the Trey Mancini trade, Murray profiles as a high-probability future big leaguer based on his command of a plus slider. His eventual role remains uncertain. He’s spent his entire career starting – with mostly positive results. His ERAs are consistently more than a run below his FIP, a symptom of the aforementioned slider command. Few minor league pitchers have a fine touch with their offspeed stuff. Murray has made only one appearance in Triple-A. Clubs could be curious to try him in a relief role to see if the stuff plays up. Even if it doesn’t, he looks like a plausible innings-eating, low-leverage reliever for any non-contender.
T.J. Sikkema, 24, SP/RP, KC (AA)
69 IP, 10.8 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, 4.83 ERA
A former 38th-overall pick, the Royals acquired Sikkema as part of the Andrew Benintendi trade. After dominating at the Yankees High-A affiliate, Sikkema struggled to a 7.44 ERA with the Royals Double-A crew. While his performance doesn’t appear to be that of a plausible Rule 5 pick, he fits a historically favored profile for the draft. A southpaw with a 50 percent ground ball rate, he’s worked almost exclusively as a starter. A team in need of a lefty specialist could be interested to see how he performs as a reliever.
Five More
Ethan Hankins, CLE (22): Despite reaching Rule 5 eligibility, Hankins has barely pitched professionally. He’s totaled just 64 career innings across five seasons. He returned from Tommy John surgery at the end of 2022. At times, he has flashed multiple plus pitches. Hankins would rate as an extreme selection – he has yet to appear in High-A. Orgs lacking in both Major League and prospect talent – like the Nationals – might take an interest.
Chase Strumpf, CHC (24): Strumpf has topped out at Double-A where he’s mixed solid power and excellent discipline with a serious strikeout issue. Ironically, he was originally considered a hit-over-power prospect. Strumpf could be seen as a development project, especially if a club thinks they can unlock better results by teaching him selective aggression.
Yolbert Sanchez, CWS (25): Sanchez is a contact hitter who would have been valued more in past eras of baseball. His low-angle contact approach yields a high average at the expense of power and on-base skills. He’s mostly of interest for his value as a utility infielder who can put the bat on the ball – not unlike a Ronald Torreyes type.
Jeremiah Jackson, LAA (22): One of the younger and toolsier options available, Jackson made some notable gains at Double-A last season – specifically his rate of contact. The Angels don’t have a well-regarded development system. Jackson is young and talented enough that a team with better resources – might opt to sacrifice a roster spot for a season to see if they can unlock another level.
Micah Pries, CLE (24): Although he’s flown well-below the radar, Pries has done nothing but hit since his debut in 2021. A 2019 draftee, he missed that season due to a pre-draft hamstring injury. COVID restrictions cost him his 2020 campaign. Pries seems unlikely to be selected on so short a track record and modest scouting grades. In 504 Double-A plate appearances, he batted .266/.341/.473 with 18 home runs and 20 stolen bases. If there are underlying metrics supporting his success (I have no such info on him), a data-savvy team might give him a try.
When Grant Lavigne comes to the plate will they play:
Why’d you have to go and make things so complicated? (yeah, yeah)
I see the way you’re actin’ like you’re somebody else
Gets me frustrated
Which one of these got big hype? Maybe Hankins like 5 years ago?
Lol. True dat. How bout title it- “mildly hyped prospect list” I’d still read it !
In the context of rule 5 geekdom, these guys are gods.
Hankins doesn’t have quite the same upside as he used to, and he’s probably a reliever now just for health reasons. His fastball in particular was a plus pitch as a starter, so if he’s recovered well from TJ then a team might take a chance on his pedigree and gamble that there’s something to tap into. He’s a pretty high risk pick, but usually with Rule 5 guys you’re just taking a gamble anyway.
I like Pries a lot. They couldn’t really afford to protect him, but he can be a passable first baseman or corner outfielder and he can really hit. The short track record is definitely a concern, but someone might stash him and hope he can stick as a bench bat and maybe develop into a little more down the line. If he stays with the Guardians for another year though, I’d be interested to see what he can do over a full year in AAA next season.
My Tigers should look at Pries. He looks like he has line drive power and some speed. That is a great combination at Comerica Park.
It’s not a perfect comp, but he reminds me a little of Mark Canha at the same stage in their careers. Canha had a little more power and Pries has a little more speed, but their overall profiles are really similar as on base guys with a little power and a little speed that can play first or anywhere in the outfield.
Canha was a rule 5 pick and he’s done pretty well for himself. It’s unrealistic to expect that with Pries too, but he’s a pretty decent player.
A 24 year old w/ an 8% BB rate and 119 wRC+ in AA can “really hit”?
I mean, those aren’t bad numbers, even out of context. But we’re talking about someone who might not even get picked in R5, so I hardly said he’s a top prospect. (It’s impressive that he did that with 72 games separating him from D2 though.) Statistically, he was the Josh Naylor of AA last year. He was also the same age as his competition, so if he was 24 and doing that in rookie ball then I’d be more inclined to agree with you. But I doubt you’ve done more than type his name into Fangraphs.
No he wasn’t the Josh Naylor of AA lol. A 119 wRC+ translates to like 70 wRC+ in mlb. And he was way old for the level
For the life of me I don’t know why they left Vodnik exposed, especially considering some of the names they’re protecting. Maybe he has an ugly girlfriend.
I agree! He dominated AA & AAA this past season. I figured he would have been called up next season.
A head scratcher for sure with Victor. I believe he spends so much time on the IL—it may take 2 calendar years on the 26 man to fully acquire him. So maybe the Braves are counting on whatever team to give up on him at some point and they will get him back. He has improved every year—I don’t believe he is kimbrel but he could be a Luke Jackson type RP—which is very valuable. They don’t want to lose the 5 they made room for this week. It might be the right decision. But I will miss VV for sure—he will be taken by someone no doubt.
JJ is the Angels’ shortstop sometime in 23 or ’24.
Jackson spent a lot of time in the outfield last season so I’m gonna say no to that prediction
he played total of 9 games at LF in ’22. that sure is not a lot.
I wish sox added Ward but i get it.
@Jockstrap… hopefully ,he’s seen as too much of a gamble to add in rule 5. A team such as Oakland or Washington could certainly afford to keep him on board.
I will be mildly surprised if INF prospect Yolbert Sanchez goes unclaimed in the upcoming Rule 5 Draft early next month. The White Sox failed to add Sanchez to their 40-man roster ahead of the deadline for Rule 5 eligibles this past Tuesday.
Unlike many Rule 5 prospects, Sanchez is MLB ready after having spent the second half of 2022 at AAA Charlotte. Most scouts had Sanchez pegged as a glove-first prospect coming out of Cuba but he has hit quite well in his quick ascension through the White Sox system. His power output was limited but he has hit for average, is not averse to drawing a walk and doesn’t whiff much.
If Sanchez is selected by a team next month odds are he will not only remain on their MLB roster all season but also contribute to it in a meaningful way. If he goes unclaimed he would certainly provide the White Sox with some solid middle infield insurance at AAA and also have a chance to break camp as a potential reserve.
Sanchez swings a wet newspaper.
I agree. The White Sox need bodies for the infield and he seems like a capable utility guy. He’d be a lot cheaper than anybody they’d find in free agency
Sanchez would be cheaper than a couple of their internal utility players, especially Leury Garcia who was inexplicably signed to a 3-year contract last offseason. Garcia does play all 3 OF positions in addition to SS/2B and 3B. Sanchez has covered all those infield positions in the minors but could probably expand his resume further like Danny Mendick and Josh Harrison have done.
Mendick is the other internal utility player who will come with a higher price tag than Sanchez. Mendick is a Super 2 First Year Arbitration Eligible player this season coming off of his season ending ACL tear in June. He’s a low risk non-tender candidate for tonight’s deadline, certainly less likely than OF Adam Engel.
“”…..Leury Garcia who was inexplicably signed to a 3-year contract last offseason.”
LOL
Great comment Aaron.
It seems every time I see that guy play – INF…..OF…any position – he messes up plays that cost the Sox runs. I didn’t know they signed him to a 3 year contract.
The Sox FO just keeps amazing me with the stuff they do.
I’m beginning to think the Commissioner needs to have their FO take a drug test.
Victor Vodnik has a great Bond villain name. Imagine Dr. Victor Vodnik having James Bond in a overly elaborate trap while having a fluffy white cat in his lap laughing with an evil laugh Muhahahaha!!!
Marvel be like “Victor Vo….what??”
The term “Big Hype” prospects is getting a little looser every new article.
Sorry Mr. Sikkema, but we don’t draft guys named TJ! Bad Karma for a pitcher!
Jeremiah Jackson. Wasn’t that a Robert Redford flick?
I know, I know. Johnson.
Some of these guys are no longer “prospects”. Since the segment is literally called “Big Hype Prospects” to include someone like Yolbert Sanchez, for example, doesn’t make sense.
Are you thinking of Yolmer Sanchez?
I would like the Marlins to think about picking up Vodnik. The bullpen is so bad that he can compete for a bullpen spot during Spring Training.
Other two non-protected names I would consider for the Fish are Dominic Canzone (Dbacks) and Corey Julks (Houston).
Any Dbacks and/or Houston fans who can give insights about them two?
If no one replies, both are on my shortlist for next week. Not guaranteed that I’ll cover them. Pretty good shot though!
I know a couple of other posters mentioned this, but when the Big Hype columns came out, I was thinking Mayer or Yorke, not a guy that FG ranked #18 in our system. All things being equal, that makes Ward the (30*18) #540 prospect in baseball.
Or, put another way, if Ward gets picked up in the Rule 5, is there going to be a single fan posting “man, I can’t believe we landed a prospect like Ward”?
???? What??? But neither Mayer or Yorke are Rule 5 eligible??
Vodnik is gonna be gone quick, should have let Braden Shewmake off the 40 instead.
Shewmake is the 2nd SS at the moment and a 1st rd pick—-maybe working with wash will help Grissom but as of right now—Shewmake is no 2 SS on the Braves. With the 30th ranked system they can’t give up on a SS this moment, anyway. But yeah I would rather have Victor than Shewmake —long term anyway.
True, he was a late first rounder but he hasn’t been able to produce above A ball and he has no pop. I see the braves giving ss to Orlando Arcia to start the year if Anthopolous doesn’t bring back Swanson.
Totally agree. As of right now—if Arcia got hurt Shewmake would be the backup. Till that is no longer true I think they have to keep Shewmake. After the all star break or if they sign back dans—maybe that will change. But I believe the Braves will add dans or someone and Arcia backs them up in Atlanta and Shewmake is the reserve in AAA. I hope we can sign dans and never need shewmake. As far as protecting him I believe the cupboard is bare and he is the only neighbor with sugar so they keep him around in case dans and Arcia get hurt like last year. Grissom may be able with wash’s instruction be a serviceable SS but at this moment most say he isn’t. With Riley and grissom and no shift…..equals defensive poop.
Ronny Simon is a 22 year old, switch hitting, middle infielder. Although he hasn’t played above AA.
But he would be my pick for a rebuilding team picking high in the Rule 5. You can stash him on the bench, while he can back up middle infield, pinch run and bite the bullet with his hitting MLB pitching for a year.
Next year continue his development in AA/AAA at age 23.
Lavigne hasn’t played above AA either. Those would be the two I’d have interest in for the Pirates. Lavigne being a bit harder to stash, backing up just 1B and DH. But being a lefty bat off the bench that has good contact.
I don’t know why TB didn’t protect Ronny Simon. He’s better than Vidal Brujan and Brujan is out of options.