Thanks to a busy month of December, most of the top free agents from this offseason are off the board, assuming the Carlos Correa deal with the Mets eventually gets over the finish line. From MLBTR’s list of the top 50 free agents, only three remain unattached: Jurickson Profar, Andrew Chafin and Michael Wacha. That means that teams still looking for upgrades will have to sift through the remainders, looking for talent that other clubs have overlooked.
One interesting candidate who deserves a look is Adam Duvall, who hasn’t been written about on MLBTR since August. If any teams have interest in him, it hasn’t been leaked to the public yet. It’s not especially shocking that his market has been quiet to this point. His 2022 was cut short in July when he required season-ending wrist surgery. He also limped to a .213/.276/.401 line in the first few months of the season while striking out in 32.1% of his plate appearances. That production was 13% below league average, as indicated by his 87 wRC+.
That’s certainly not an ideal platform for a trip into free agency, but there are still things to like about Duvall. The plate discipline issue has always been there, as he has a career 6.7% walk rate and has never finished a season above 8.7%. He’s struck out in 28.5% of his career trips to the plate and has been at 25.8% or above in each season of his career. For reference, this year’s league averages were an 8.2% walk rate and 22.4% strikeout rate. However, he’s always paired that with tremendous power, topping 30 home runs in a season three times. He also hit 16 in the shortened 2020 season and 12 this year prior to being shut down.
He’s also considered to be a strong defensive outfielder. He’s tallied 58 Defensive Runs Saved on the grass in his career, 28 Outs Above Average and has a 22.7 from Ultimate Zone Rating. His DRS and UZR slipped to below average in 2022, but OAA still was quite bullish, placing him in the 88th percentile in the league. His arm strength placed in the 78th percentile, his outfielder jump in the 74th and his sprint speed 67th.
If 2022 showed Duvall’s profile at its worst, 2021 showed how valuable it can be. He struck out in 31.4% of his plate appearances and walked in only 6.3% of them, but he launched 38 home runs, stole five bases, led the National League in RBIs with 113 and provided excellent defense. He got a 9.9 from UZR, 19 DRS and +4 OAA. That DRS figure was tied with Michael A. Taylor for best in the league among all outfielders while the UZR score was in the top five. That was primarily corner outfield work, but 210 2/3 innings out of his 1155 total innings came in center field. He was awarded the National League Gold Glove award for right field. All told, FanGraphs calculated him to be worth 2.7 wins above replacement for the year.
Duvall is now 34 years old and coming off a down year, both in terms of health and performance. It would be easy to roll one’s eyes at the idea of a team bringing him aboard and giving him a significant role. However, the pickings in free agency are getting slim and every player still out there is going to have flaws in one way or another. Duvall likely won’t earn a tremendous salary in free agency due to his struggles this year, but he has the ability to provide strong corner outfield defense while playing center field on occasion. His plate discipline isn’t great but he has tremendous power. It’s also possible that the upcoming shift bans will boost his batting average by a few points, since he was shifted in 71.7% of his plate appearances this year despite hitting right-handed. Even with his struggles at the plate in 2022, he was still worth 0.9 fWAR in 86 games before the wrist issue put him out for the second half. He isn’t likely to kill you in a platoon capacity either, as his career splits aren’t drastic, with a 101 wRC+ against lefties and a 94 otherwise. For a team looking for a low-cost flier to find some sneaky value this late in the offseason, they could do much worse.
Ok Braves go ahead and resign him instead of starting Eddie Marcell or Eli pls. Maybe we can stop the DFA carousel after we sign him.
Seems like the logical Bloom signing. Sox still need power to replace Bogie and JDM. Getting Turner was fine and it’s expected that Casas will deliver but that’s too much pressure to put on him. Even if he does, the team was shorthanded power wise last season due primarily to anticipating Story would replace Renfroe power wise. The team needs to be deeper to deal with injuries.
Duvall is 7-18 with 4 HR’s at Fenway Park. Could definitely be a buy low power source and he can play all three OF positions. After signing Justin Turner though who knows if the Sox are still looking for another bat
They better be. As I said, injuries happen as do down seasons. Turner in Fenway should be on par with JDM’s production if he bounces back. It’s just too much pressure to put on Casas.
Wish the Braves could trade Ozuna for him, I know it’s a bad day when I see Ozuna playing LF. Ozuna does not have the arm to play LF on a slow pitch softball team.
I think you mean trade Ozuna somewhere to create a spot for him since he’s a free agent. I’m not sure if the Braves would be willing to just eat Ozuna’s contract and DFA him. I highly doubt Duvall would give them a substantial discount if they were to do that.
No, I knew that we could not actually make that trade. I do wish we could twitch our nose or blink our eyes and they would be swapped. I live in a fantasy world.
Or give Ozuna a one way ticket to Russia with a gram in his bag
I always liked Duvall. Prone to the outside breaking ball but when he squared it up, he was solid.
I doubt he will be back with the Reds though even though they need outfielders.
I like Adam, but after signing Myer I’d rather the Reds pick up Naquin (probably on the cheap also).
Either one would be welcome in my book!
That’s a great idea.
I want him as a left fielder and DH at times.
He always need to be on the field. He is a gold glove winning OF and until he proves he can’t be one anymore he needs to stay out there.
Agreed. He is a good outfielder. A lot of people forget that.
@deGrom. Duvall has a career OPS+ of 97 and he hasn’t posted a WAR above 1.9 in the past 5 years. Why would you want a below average player to be a starter? He is a bench player on a good team and a starter on a bad team. Are the Rangers good or bad?
They are slightly above average. Let’s say 85 wins. They have trashy left fielders though. They have had guys with an OPS starting with .5 the last several seasons (including when they had Gallo since he mostly played right and center). Anything is an improvement. Fangraphs (as trashy as it may be) has their rotation ranked 2nd in baseball in projected WAR and a bottom 5 bullpen and left field. There is lots of potential here.
Also, Duvall had a 3.1 WAR season just last year. He had a 1.9 WAR with Miami and a 1.2 WAR with Atlanta actually. Baseball reference doesn’t let you combine partial years for WAR.
Seems like the A’s or Rox could use a flier like that. Cheap one year deal and flip him before the TDL if he shows any improvements. Both could use some help in those outfields and he’s probably cheap enough that he’s cuttable should it appear he’s fizzled out and is blocking younger guys.
I think he could fit on the Rox, but the strikeouts scare me. The ball does not travel any further at Coors Field than any other stadium if you don’t hit it.
His OBP makes me sick. SLG overated.
If the Astros don’t resign Gurriel, he’d be an excellent pickup. I think Brantley and Abreu are bound to go down w injuries at some point and if McCormick/Myers regress, it’d be good to have a veteran with upside
Maybe the other guys, but look up GP for Abreu……that man shows up to work!:)
The Astros aren’t going to pay for all those K’s. Might as well just stick with Mac and Myers, and if they fail, they trade for help.
Might be a good pickup for the Jays as a 4th OF type. Depends on how bad the wrist is though.
Yup, people forget that 113 RBI’s he had and point to the K’s. AA, just bring the dude back and play him in left. I honestly think all that CF Play affected him at the plate.
I agree with you 100 percent
9 MLB season and only two were good. The same dummies on here that are saying he’d be a good pick up will call for him to be DFA’d by the Allstate break.
I don’t know. I think he will last until the State Farm break when he will be replaced by Jake.
He’ll be in good hands
Slow curve. My bad. I didn’t notice your reply.
It happens! All good.
Nah they will call for him to be traded before the Progressive trade deadline.
He’s good overall defensively but does he have “good hands”?
Your views are not very Progressive and will cause mayhem, like me.
Welcome to the Minnesota Twins!
Duvall would have made sense for the Twins before they signed Gallo. As things stand, he could still be a righty complement to whichever lefty corner outfielders are on the opening-day roster (I don’t think the Gallo signing makes it automatic that they’ll trade Kepler, but would guess that between Kepler and the younger guys they’ve had enough trade inquiries that they expect at least one of them to go.) But unless two of their current outfielders are traded, adding another veteran would make that portion of the roster pretty crowded.
Love me some Adam Duvall. One of my favorite players with the Braves, and maybe one of the unluckiest.
Hope to see you back with a Tomahawk on your chest soon, Adam!!
Great HR hitter, very good glove, strikes out a lot, terrific personality. Teams needed for a 4th OF power bat should be calling him. Pirates have to be good fit.
He’ll probably sign with the Mets to be their 38th man on the bench.
The Padres need a veteran corner OF (4th OF) but his OBP doesn’t fit well in the team’s philosophy. Profar would be a better pick up but wants to be a starter rather than a 4th OF
Tendon sheaths are career killers. Texiera was never the same and we see what Hicks has done so far. Power and defense can play anywhere but subtract either one at 34 y.o. and it’s over.
Might fit the Brewers nicely if he’s healthy.
Fits Rangers need for a LF and another RH power bat to pair with Semian
Know doesn’t control the strike zone that well but think he could be a good fit on the tigers. Baddoo, Carpenter, Greene, and Meadows all hit LH. Duvall could supply some much needed RH pop.
I would love the tigers to pick this guy up. Yes, I know he doesn’t fit the mold of the high obp guy that Harris likes, but what good is obp if you can’t score runs? He brings defense, power, a right handed bat all at an affordable price. He also is an insurance policy if Tork stumbles, and is a great club house guy.
Tork won’t stumble…now that Coolbaugh is history and Hinch knows better than to mess with his swing and timing, he’ll be what they thought he was when they drafted him 1-1.
Must be nice to see into the future! Have any stock tips?
It’s always entertaining when fans use absolutes when talking about prospects. I can’t keep track off all the “can’t miss” “all world” prospects who never produced in the MLB. Lol
Might as well bring JaCoby Jones back. They need someone who can hit consistently jmo.
Jacoby never hit 38 home runs. Please tell us your suggestion for a right handed bat outfielder who is cheap and can play first.
Seems like your criteria is awfully specific towards Duvall- a cheap right handed bat, needs to play of, and needs to play 1b. Most utility players? How about what’s already in the system?
PJ Higgins?
Adam Duvall doesn’t move the needle on any team to be honest, hence why he’s not included in the top 50. Duvall is the type of player that a team like the A’s, Pirates and Marlins would consider as they have no intention of competing but rather have an interest in keeping their payroll below 75mil.
Marlins payroll is over 100 million at the moment. Not sure what the hell it is they’re spending 100 million on, but they are.
As a Braves fan I wouldn’t mind Duvall back. The team seems to have lost a lot of offense this offseason apparently AA is hoping we score a couple of runs and the bullpen can hold it while completely obliterating the minor league system. It seems anyone and everyone who has potential has been traded away except the 2022 signings which are not yet eligible. It seems we are going all in but the offense seems a tad light. I do like the Sean Murphy acquisition and I think his offense will tick up in a much better lineup but It seems we are looking at fighting for a wild card in 2023.
Great fit as a 4th outfielder for the Jays as they now need a RH hitter to fill in when teams bring lefties in late to pitch to KK and Varsho, neither of whom hit lefties, also loads of playing time when inevitably Springer and KK get injured
Chafin had exactly what he wanted from the Tigers…2 years of guaranteed money, close to his home in Ohio, and a back of the bullpen job. So he opted out for more money and years and now he’s looking for a job. good.
Or maybe he wants to be in Ohio instead of that state up north
Um, he can still sign with the Tigers, and there’s 2 months of off season to go. Worst case scenario he’s back with the Tigers, best case he makes more money. What are you not understanding?
Similar in production to Gallo and Belli. All are good defensively, strikeout prone and big on power. Duvall is older, hurt last year but, still better offensively than both, and is the short side of a platoon.
$9mil? Rockies?
He would be a better investment than Gallo.
Maybe a better 4th OF for Red Sox than Duran?
Duvall would be a fit for the Dodgers and would free up Taylor to play more 2B
I like him as a 4th OF option for the Sox. Take some pressure facing some tough lefties for Colas.
Some of the players are facing an early retirement. A early retirement they created. A salary cap might have gave them another paycheck, but as teams pay the (insert] big name, they don’t have the money to give the big bucks to a marginal declining player. They rather have a kid who makes more like the league minimum. Maybe your agent will help you? What is that? He’s not returning your calls?
The Nats still need a left fielder.
(Yes, I realize they need a lot more, with the blue chippers a few years out.)
if he wasn’t pretty well above average in the field I think there would be less talk about him than there is now.
a .290 OBP since 2016 is just unacceptable. He is lucky he has better than average power. a 98 OPS+ isn’t inspiring to a significant deal Add in the injury.. i don’t expect more than a ‘show me’ contract.
I see most teams looking at internal options. Before the pirates spent ‘big’ so far i’d say he’d be a good signing on a 1y 3-5M with a team option to provide insurance for a Reynolds trade possibility.
Pirates don’t have much in the way of quality OFs in the system and those who have been in the MLB where not that inspiring.
BUT Jack Suwinski seems like he could fit the same profile that Adam does, if not better. Doesn’t get on base but when he hits the ball its over the fence. 19 of his 66 hits in 2022 were home runs. So maybe. never mind just go with Jack.
Marlins, please.
He played really well for us. Plays a good outfield and seemed to thrive in the low lights of Miami. He doesn’t fit the “ put the ball in play” philosophy though. Bleday and Avi blocking him as well.
Great position flexibility, he actually played more CF than LF last season. Would be an interesting pickup for Seattle who is looking for a RH LF to platoon with Kelenic, but he could also spell J-Rod in CF from time to time.
I think fans are underestimating the effects of his injury. It saps power and bat speed like a vampire. Duvall may be closer to a NRI than a guaranteed contract if any significance.
Yankees?
seems like a good Boston signing
Rangers could use an OF bat.
My Rangers could use an OF bat if Duvall would play in Texas.
Unless AA has something else up his sleeve, I’d much rather have Adam than Ozuna or the lost count of dfa players here lately platooning with Rosario in left.
He will sign with the Marlins and the Braves will trade for him at the deadline. Rinse Wash Repeat. Braves should have resigned Duvall before he signed with Marlins and the Braves probably going to make the same mistake twice. I wouldn’t feel terrible about LF if entering spring training with Duvall, Rosario, and Ozuna in LF. Duvall is a good depth piece and has always been streaky.
Wacha to the Yankees in a setup role.
I wouldn’t mind if the White Sox sign him. He’s going to be cheap, and he can play gold glove right field. The power is just a bonus.
Maybe Wacha is asking too much for Bloom to say yes to.
A 3.32 ERA – 11-2, 127 Inn in 2022 down from 5.05 in ’21 probably warrants a raise from $7 M. Maybe a 2 year, $20 M(Total).
He’s pitched in 225 games to a 4.05 Career ERA in 1,153 Inn with a 1.31 WHIP.
He was the most dependable pitcher on the staff in ’22. He was on the IL twice missing 10 starts,
How many Inn’s has Sale pitched in the last 3 years and how many for Paxton?
The Sox were 16-7 in Wacha’s starts and 59-76 in the rest of the teams starts. He made 23 starts with 104 K’s in 127 Inn.
Pay the man,
Reds should sign him, has plenty experience in GAB, still has punch, as an outfielder or DH