Adam Duvall

Adam Duvall Seeking $3MM+ In Free Agency

By Anthony Franco | March 3, 2025 at 7:42pm CDT

Adam Duvall remains unsigned a few weeks into Spring Training. That was also the case last offseason. It wasn’t until March 14 that the veteran outfielder inked a $3MM contract with the Braves.

Duvall is evidently seeking a similar or better deal this time around. Joel Sherman of The New York Post reports that the 36-year-old has informed teams that he intends to retire unless he’s guaranteed at least $3MM. To that end, Sherman writes that Duvall declined an offer from the Royals that would’ve come with a $1MM guarantee and another $1MM in performance bonuses.

A $3MM contract isn’t much by major league standards, but Duvall is coming off a much worse season than he was when he signed for that amount last spring. The right-handed hitter had a personal-worst .182/.245/.323 batting line over 330 plate appearances. The Braves kept him on the roster all season but dramatically curtailed his playing time as the year progressed. Duvall started 61 games before the All-Star Break but was in the opening lineup on only 13 occasions in the season’s second half. Atlanta left him off their Wild Card roster.

That’s in marked contrast to his productive 2023 campaign while a member of the Red Sox. Duvall popped 21 homers with a .247/.303/.531 slash through 353 trips to the plate two seasons back. While his strikeout and walk numbers were more or less unchanged year over year, his ground-ball rate jumped by 11 percentage points. Duvall’s average exit velocity ticked down by almost two miles per hour. That unsurprisingly impacted his power production, as he managed only 11 homers in nearly as much playing time as he’d had with Boston.

To his credit, Duvall remained productive in a platoon capacity. He hit .252/.341/.514 with eight of his home runs in 123 plate appearances against left-handers last year. His numbers against righties (.143/.188/.219 with three homers in 207 PAs) were unplayable, but he could perhaps contribute if used more selectively. Kansas City was evidently willing to give him a major league roster spot for that role, presumably as a platoon partner for lefty-swinging left fielder MJ Melendez. Their offer wasn’t to his liking, however.

Duvall has played in parts of 11 MLB seasons. He has a little less than nine years of big league service time. Baseball Reference has calculated his career earnings just north of $27MM. While it’s easy to understand teams’ reluctance to match or top last year’s salary after the season he just had, Duvall has banked a lot of money and seems not to be interested in playing for marginally more than the $760K league minimum at this stage of his career.

Brandon Belt seemingly took a similar approach last winter (when he was coming off a much better season than Duvall is). He reportedly declined an incentive-laden offer from the Mets and wound up sitting out the season. Belt hasn’t made an official retirement announcement, but there was nothing to suggest that he was seeking opportunities this offseason. Anthony Rizzo recently told The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal that while he wants to continue his career, he has rebuffed interest from teams that “want (him) to play for basically league minimum.” Rizzo, who said he’s concerned that taking what he considers to be an offer below his value could contribute to a precedent that hinders other veteran players, remains a free agent.

Where Can The Braves Go For Outfield Help?

By Anthony Franco | May 28, 2024 at 4:28pm CDT

In a season with a number of high-profile injuries, there has been no bigger loss than Ronald Acuña Jr. The defending NL MVP tore the ACL in his left knee over the weekend. It's the second time in the last four years that an ACL tear (in separate knees) has ended his season a few months early.

There's obviously no way of replacing Acuña with anyone close to the same caliber of player. The Braves will likely need to add to the corner outfield in some form over the next two months, though. Gabe Burns of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution tweeted yesterday that the Acuña injury will push each of Adam Duvall and Jarred Kelenic into an everyday role. That's not an ideal position for a team trying to hang with the Phillies at the top of the NL East.

Atlanta bought low on Kelenic over the winter. The former top prospect still hasn't shown any sign of a legitimate breakout. He has a roughly average .258/.305/.383 batting line over 128 plate appearances. Kelenic's 31.3% strikeout rate is still much too high, and he's walking less often (6.3% of the time) than he did during his final season in Seattle. He can hit the ball hard, but he's still swinging and missing far too frequently. The Braves have also completely shielded him from left-handed pitching. That'll no longer be the case if he's playing everyday, and he's a .188/.252/.307 hitter in 301 career plate appearances against southpaws.

Duvall returned to Atlanta on a $3MM free agent deal midway through Spring Training. His profile is well-established at this point. He hits for power and plays solid defense in the corner outfield. That'll come with low on-base marks and underwhelming strikeout and walk numbers. Duvall has dramatically cut his swing-and-miss in 99 plate appearances this year, but that's largely attributable to the Braves leveraging him heavily against left-handed pitching as Kelenic's platoon partner. Duvall has 14 strikeouts and one walk in 39 plate appearances against righties. At age 35, it seems fair to presume he hasn't suddenly found a new level of plate discipline.

Let's run through a few of the likelier possible trade targets for president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos and the Atlanta front office.

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Braves Sign Adam Duvall

By Steve Adams | March 14, 2024 at 11:58pm CDT

The Braves announced Thursday that they’ve signed veteran outfielder Adam Duvall to a one-year, $3MM contract. The CAA client will return for a third stint with Atlanta. The Braves’ 40-man roster had multiple open spots, so a corresponding move was not necessary.

Less than one month after Atlanta president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos indicated that the team was not planning to platoon newly acquired outfielder Jarred Kelenic in left field, Anthopoulos now tells the Braves beat the opposite: the righty-hitting Duvall will pair with the left-handed Kelenic in left field (X link via Gabe Burns of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution).

The change in plans is likely attributable to multiple factors, including a presumable drop in Duvall’s asking price and also Kelenic’s struggles thus far in spring training. The once-ballyhooed prospect, whom the Braves effectively paid around $26MM to acquire (between eating bad contracts and the associated luxury-tax hits), is off to a 2-for-30 start with four walks and seven punchouts this spring. Kelenic has struggled against lefties throughout his still-young career, evidenced by a .189/.255/.311 slash (61 wRC+) and 29.9% strikeout rate against them.

Duvall, 35, has played with five teams in his career but spent more time with Atlanta than any other club. In parts of five prior seasons, he’s batted .224/.285/.464 — numbers that generally align with his career marks. He’s a strikeout-prone slugger whose paltry walk rates lead to low batting averages and poor OBP marks, but Duvall offsets those flaws with plus power and typically plus defensive grades in the outfield corners. Though he’ll be in a platoon role in this latest Braves stint, he has roughly even splits in his career: .232/.301/.469 (101 wRC+) versus left-handed pitching, .232/.287/.473 (97 wRC+) against right-handers.

Duvall spent the 2023 season with the Red Sox and was the game’s hottest hitter for the first ten days of the season before fracturing his wrist on a diving attempt in the outfield. He missed exactly two months and returned to post .223/.273/.474 slash that’s right in line with his career marks. Duvall swatted 21 homers in just 353 plate appearances with Boston — the best power output of his career on a rate basis — but also fanned in more than 31% of his plate appearances for a third consecutive season.

The Sox surprised many onlookers when signing Duvall to serve as their primary center fielder, and defensive metrics were down on his performance there. It’s reasonable to expect a bounceback in a less-demanding and more familiar left field setting, where Duvall has logged more than 68% of his career innings.

Despite the modest price tag, Duvall was relatively popular in terms of the number of teams showing interest in him this winter. The Red Sox, Angels, Twins, Blue Jays, Padres and D-backs were just some of the clubs connected to him, though many went in other directions. Minnesota seemingly preferred a truer backup center fielder and acquired Manuel Margot. Arizona took a more prototypical lefty masher in Randal Grichuk. San Diego was connected to Duvall as recently as Monday, but it’s possible Duvall simply preferred to return to the organization he knows best. Given his history with the club and given that the Braves are one of the largest postseason favorites in the entire sport, it’d be hard to blame him.

Because the Braves are already well into the second tier of luxury-tax penalization and are a second-year offender of the CBT, they’ll be taxed at a 42% clip on Duvall’s signing. That comes to a modest $1.26MM slap on the wrist and brings the total cost of acquisition on Duvall to $4.26MM. Per RosterResource, the Braves are now up to just over $273MM in luxury obligations. If they cross the $277MM mark, they’ll be taxed at a 72.5% rate on subsequent additions and see their top pick in next year’s draft dropped by ten spots.

Padres Still Showing Interest In Michael A. Taylor, Adam Duvall

By Anthony Franco | March 11, 2024 at 9:47pm CDT

The Padres have left open the possibility of bringing in veteran outfield help well into Spring Training. Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune writes that the Friars are still involved in the respective markets for free agents Michael A. Taylor, Adam Duvall and Tommy Pham, among others. The Athletic’s Dennis Lin has also linked the Padres to Pham on a few occasions in recent weeks.

Taylor is the only viable everyday center fielder still on the open market. He remains one of the sport’s top defensive outfielders as he nears his 33rd birthday. By measure of Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average, Taylor rated anywhere between five to seven runs above par in nearly 1000 innings of center field work for the Twins a year ago. DRS has credited him with 65 runs saved at the outfield’s most important spot over his decade in the major leagues.

That’s sufficient to make Taylor a viable bottom-of-the-lineup regular so long as he’s contributing anything offensively. He did enough at the plate in Minnesota, connecting on a personal-high 21 home runs and stealing 13 bases over 388 plate appearances. Taylor has some power, although it comes with a lot of empty at-bats. He punched out more than a third of the time en route to a .220 average and very poor .278 on-base mark. Taylor has gotten on base less than 30% of the time in three of his last four seasons.

The offensive inconsistency has led teams to shy away from his asking price. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal wrote last week that Taylor views himself similarly to fellow glove-first center fielders Kevin Kiermaier and Harrison Bader, each of whom signed for one year and $10.5MM earlier this offseason. While he is coming off a superior platform year to Bader and doesn’t have the same injury history as Kiermiaer, it’s hard to envision Taylor finding that kind of salary a few from Opening Day.

That’s particularly true from a San Diego team that has spent much of the offseason cutting payroll. From a roster perspective, though, the Padres might be the most straightforward fit. José Azocar is a .249/.292/.341 hitter in 153 big league contests. He has rated as a quality defender in his own right, but he might have an even lighter bat than Taylor does.

The Padres will probably want to keep Azocar in a fourth outfield capacity. As things stand, that’d likely mean calling upon Jackson Merrill as their starting center fielder. Merrill, 20, hasn’t played above Double-A. Primarily a shortstop prospect, he has worked in the outfield this spring. The lefty-hitting Merrill is one of the sport’s top minor league talents, but relying on him as a starting center fielder would be a gamble even for a San Diego team that is generally aggressive about promoting its prospects.

Merrill has zero minor league innings at the position. That’s on top of his limited experience facing advanced pitching. The former first-round pick has held his own at the plate this spring, hitting .286/.355/.357 in 31 trips to the plate. He’s drawn three walks while striking out twice but only has two extra-base hits (both doubles).

Further complicating matters, the Padres don’t have a clear solution in left field. Even if the Friars feel Merrill is ready to face big league arms, they could play him in left to accommodate a Taylor signing. That’d bump Jurickson Profar to the bench. So too would signing one of Duvall of Pham, both of whom are righty-hitting corner options. They’re similarly valuable players, as MLBTR’s Nick Deeds explored over the weekend. Duvall brings more power to the table, while Pham is more consistent at getting on base.

In any case, the Padres will need to make some kind of outfield transaction in the next few days. Azocar, Profar and Fernando Tatis Jr. are the only outfielders on the 40-man roster. Minor league signees Óscar Mercado, Tyler Wade and Brad Miller remain on the major league side of camp as possible bench additions.

San Diego is faced with those questions sooner than almost anyone else. They begin their regular season with a two-game series against the Dodgers in South Korea on March 20-21. The Padres will fly to Seoul two days from now. Acee notes that if they do sign a veteran outfielder, that player would likely skip the Korea series and remain in minor league camp to build up for the rest of the season.

Free Agent Faceoff: Adam Duvall/Tommy Pham

By Nick Deeds | March 9, 2024 at 9:32pm CDT

The Dodgers and Padres are set to kick off the regular season with the Korea Series in Seoul less than two weeks from today, and MLB’s 28 other clubs will follow suit the week afterwards. At this late stage of Spring Training, it’s rare for free agents of particular note to remain available on the market, but a handful of quality players linger on the open market nonetheless. That group is led by front-of-the-rotation southpaws Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery, though there’s a crop of interesting lower-level pieces available as well, ranging from veteran slugger J.D. Martinez to right-handed hurler Michael Lorenzen.

While the market is deepest in starting pitching at this point in the winter, there’s one other position where teams with a need will find a number of options worth consideration still available: the outfield. Michael A. Taylor is generally regarded as the best player remaining on the market in that group due to his superlative center field defense and a strong platform season in Minnesota that saw him slug a career-best 21 home runs. With that being said, a pair of veteran bats also remain available for teams hoping to add a bit more pop to their lineup or bench mix at this late stage in the offseason: Adam Duvall and Tommy Pham. The pair are both right-handed hitting outfielders with ten seasons of MLB experience under their belt across a combined ten different clubs. The duo also both took one-year deals last winter following a down 2022 season before bouncing back in 2023 to post above-average production at the plate, and are only five months apart in age.

Similar as they are, there are some key differences between the two. Pham has been the much more consistent regular of the two throughout his career, with his 481 trips to the plate in 2023 being his lowest figure in a 162-game season since he became a full-time player in 2017. Duvall, by contrast, has reached 450 plate appearances in a season just three times in his career, most recently during the 2021 season. In addition to having more experience under his belt, Pham has been the better hitter overall for his career with a triple slash of .259/.351/.435 (116 wRC+) as opposed to Duvall’s career .232/.291/.472 (98 wRC+) slash line. The difference in the pair’s career numbers is particularly noticeable against southpaws, whom Pham has posted an .834 OPS against for his career compared to Duvall’s .770 OPS against.

While availability on the field and career numbers seem to clearly favor Pham, Duvall isn’t without advantages of his own. Despite the disparity in career numbers, he’s actually been a slightly superior hitter in recent years, with a .231/.288/.487 slash line that translates to a 104 wRC+ since the start of the 2020 season. Over that same time period, Pham has slashed just .238/.325/.392 with a 99 wRC+. In addition to the slightly stronger offensive production in recent seasons, Duvall also offers the ability to play center field, with 1,070 2/3 innings of work at the position over the past three seasons. By contrast, Pham has stuck almost entirely to the outfield corners during that same time frame, starting just 14 games in center since the start of the 2021 season. While Duvall’s glove in center has generally been panned by defensive metrics (-5 DRS, -4 OAA in 2023), the ability to handle the position is surely notable for clubs that value positional flexibility or have a need in center.

While Duvall has been the slightly better offensive player in recent years, his lead over Pham in that regard is hardly commanding. Strong as Duvall’s recent offensive performance has been, his low on-base percentages and 31.5% strikeout rate since the start of the 2021 season leave him reliant on power output for his production at the plate. That’s suited him just fine, as he’s slugged a combined 71 homers over the last three years including a whopping 38 as a full-time regular during the 2021 season. Even so, it’s certainly fair to wonder if teams in search of a regular fixture in their outfield mix would prefer Pham’s more consistent production and stronger plate discipline, with a 24.1% strikeout rate and a strong 10.9% walk rate over the past three seasons in spite of his paltry .158 ISO over that same period.

Advanced metrics certainly look more fondly on Pham’s approach, as evidenced by Pham’s .361 xwOBA in 2023 which not only outstrips his relatively pedestrian .332 wOBA, but also Duvall’s .347 figure. By contrast, Duvall’s xwOBA last season left something to be desired as he posted a figure of just .306. That disparity between Duvall’s strong results and iffy peripheral numbers can be explained in part by his torrid start to the season that saw him slug ten extra-base hits in just eight games, and his relatively pedestrian numbers afterwards that saw him post a wRC+ of just 93 following his return from injury. While it’s certainly possible that Duvall’s wrist injury sapped some of his power upon his return to the field, it’s also worth noting that Duvall’s post-injury numbers are fairly similar to his 2022 performance, where he posted a lackluster 87 wRC+ with peripheral numbers to match.

Given the pair’s number of similarities, the choice between the two players could simply come down to fit on their hypothetical new club for many teams. Organizations looking to bring in a potential regular may be more likely to choose Pham thanks to his track record as an everyday player and more reliable approach at the plate. That being said, a team looking for a contributor off the bench could be more drawn to Duvall’s recent experience at all three outfield spots and his titanic power which can allow him to change the game with a single swing. If your team was to add one of the two veterans to its outfield mix ahead of Opening Day, who would you rather have?

D-Backs Looking At Right-Handed Bench Bats

By Steve Adams | February 9, 2024 at 1:09pm CDT

The Diamondbacks signed Joc Pederson late last month and plan to use him as their primary designated hitter, but the Snakes remain on the lookout for a right-handed bat to pair with Pederson, per Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. Among the names they’re considering are Randal Grichuk, Adam Duvall and Tommy Pham, he adds.

Beyond Pederson at designated hitter, Arizona also has lefties in center field (Alek Thomas) and in right field (Corbin Carroll). The team’s re-signing of Lourdes Gurriel Jr. on a three-year pact helped to balance out an all-lefty outfield mix, but in the event that Gurriel misses any time, the top option to replace him would be lefty-swinging Jake McCarthy. As such, there’s reason to have interest in a right-handed outfield bat beyond simply wanting a platoon partner for Pederson.

The mere possibility of Pederson and Pham on the same roster will prompt boundless quips about fantasy football, but the two would form a rather natural platoon in Arizona’s DH slot. Pederson has made a career of slugging against right-handed pitching (.242/.344/.490) but carries a bleak .209/.293/.329 slash against lefties — including a .186/.327/.279 output with the Giants in 2023. Pham, meanwhile, is a .271/.381/.453 hitter against southpaws.

Pham, 36 next month, hit .262/.332/.435 against lefties in 2023 — a season split between the Mets and the D-backs. It’s not the first time this winter that Arizona has been linked to a reunion with Pham, and their ongoing interest suggests that beyond giving the Snakes a useful right-handed bat, he was a good fit in the team’s clubhouse. Defensively, Pham is primarily a left fielder at this stage of his career. He did log 45 frames in center last season, but he hasn’t played the position even semi-regularly since 2018.

Duvall, who turned 35 in September, has generally even splits in his career: .232/.301/.469 against lefties and .232/.287/.473 against righties. He strikes out a bit more and walks a bit less against right-handers but doesn’t overwhelmingly favor pitchers of either handedness. That might make him a suboptimal platoon partner for Pederson, but it does give him some more utility of the D-backs incur injuries in their outfield and/or at designated hitter, with Pederson.

Duvall graded out as an elite corner outfield defender earlier in his career, but metrics like Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average have viewed him as more of an average outfielder as he progresses into his mid-30s. The Red Sox did give Duvall a career-high 478 innings in center field last season, though the results weren’t what the team had hoped (-5 DRS, -4 OAA).

At 32 years old, Grichuk offers a younger version of a comparable skill set. He’s a career .267/.315/.507 hitter against left-handed pitching and has experience at all three outfield positions. Though he drew strong grades for his center field defense earlier in his career, defensive metrics have increasingly panned his work there. Grichuk is still a capable corner outfielder with average speed and above-average arm strength, and last year’s massive .328/.388/.607 slash against southpaws is particularly appealing for a team specifically looking for help against lefties.

The Diamondbacks currently project for a $142MM payroll, per Roster Resource, which would top their prior franchise record by nearly $11MM. That apparently won’t stop general manager Mike Hazen and his staff from pursuing further upgrades in free agency. None of Pham, Grichuk or Duvall will break the bank — all could likely be had on one-year contracts — but every dollar spent on payroll at this point pushes the D-backs further into uncharted territory.

Twins Rumors: Solano, Duvall, Lorenzen

By Steve Adams | January 31, 2024 at 9:51am CDT

The Twins finally made their first significant move of the offseason this week, shipping out stalwart infielder Jorge Polanco in a trade that netted big league righties Justin Topa and Anthony DeSclafani as well as prospects Gabriel Gonzalez and Darren Bowen from the Mariners. The Twins picked up a net savings of $5.25MM in the trade as well, which president of baseball operations Derek Falvey has already suggested will go toward adding a bat from outside the organization. One possibility the Twins may be considering, per the New York Post’s Jon Heyman, is a reunion with veteran utilityman Donovan Solano.

It’s unlikely that the 36-year-old Solano would command the entirety of that savings, let alone any resources beyond that point. He played the 2023 season on a one-year, $2MM deal he signed with the Twins after spring training had already begun. Solano didn’t necessarily post eye-popping numbers but was a quietly important piece of the Twins’ AL Central title, turning in a strong .282/.369/.391 batting line with a career-high 8.9% walk rate against a 22.2% strikeout rate (just south of league average but also a career-high mark). That batting line was 16% better than average, by measure of wRC+, and Solano paired it with his typical defensive versatility, logging time at first base, second base and third base.

Bringing back Solano would deepen the team’s bench mix and once again provide a right-handed-hitting complement to lefty-swinging first baseman Alex Kirilloff. However, it’s also debatable whether the need is as pressing this time around as when Minnesota last signed Solano. Royce Lewis has emerged as the team’s everyday third baseman, with Carlos Correa at shortstop. The Polanco trade cleared the way for 2023 rookie standout Edouard Julien to step into an everyday role at second base. Kirilloff is likely to man first base, and the Twins have another right-handed-hitting option, Jose Miranda, as a righty option to pair with Kirilloff.

The 2023 season was an injury ruined disaster for Miranda, as he struggled in both the majors and Triple-A before eventually undergoing shoulder surgery. But in 2022, the former top-100 prospect debuted with a strong .268/.325/.426 slash and 15 homers — including a particularly stout .289/.348/.454 showing following a dismal three-week stretch to begin his career. If Miranda is back to full strength, he can certainly be that right-handed partner for Kirilloff at first base. And, the Twins also have former top-10 picks Brooks Lee and Austin Martin on the cusp of the majors, each adding to the infield depth.

To that end, Heyman notes that Minnesota is also exploring the market for outfield help. Presumably, the target would be a right-handed bat, as corner options Matt Wallner, Max Kepler and Trevor Larnach all bat left-handed. Byron Buxton expects to be back in center field this season after spending last year as a DH following knee surgery but is, as always, a major injury question mark. The Twins have utilitymen Willi Castro and Nick Gordon as center field alternatives, and the aforementioned Martin is also no stranger to the position. But a righty bat who can handle center field still seems like a prudent addition, whether that be a reunion with Michael A. Taylor or perhaps a different free agent like Adam Duvall or Randal Grichuk.

Dan Hayes of The Athletic reports that the Twins have indeed considered Duvall, specifically. The 35-year-old, righty-swinging slugger is capable of playing all three outfield spots but is best suited for corner work at this stage of his career. Duvall ripped 21 homers in just 92 games for the Red Sox last year while slashing .247/.303/.531 overall.

Contact and plate discipline issues have long plagued Duvall. He fanned in 31.2% of his plate appearances last year against just a 6.2% walk rate; in his career, he sports marks of 28.7% and 6.7% in those respective categories. The Twins had MLB’s highest strikeout rate last year, and while they’re subtracting Joey Gallo (42.8%) and potentially the previously mentioned Taylor as well (33.5%), they’ll also surely give more at-bats to young strikeout-prone players like Julien (31.4%) and Wallner (31.5%) in 2024. Adding another strikeout rate of 30% or more could be problematic, but they’re surely weighing that against the benefits Duvall could bring to the roster.

In the rotation, the Twins’ addition of DeSclafani has addressed some of the depth issues, though the veteran right-hander isn’t going to be mistaken as a direct replacement for outgoing Cy Young runner-up Sonny Gray, who signed a three-year, $75MM deal with the Cardinals. The Twins, according to MLB Network’s Jon Morosi, were showing interest in free-agent righty Michael Lorenzen before adding DeSclafani in the Polanco swap.

The addition of DeSclafani could well push young right-hander Louie Varland to the bullpen or the Triple-A St. Paul Saints’ rotation, but it’s not entirely clear yet whether it precludes the addition of someone like Lorenzen (a former teammate of DeSclafani’s in Cincinnati). Lorenzen made his first All-Star team in 2023 after a strong start to the season, and after being traded to Philadelphia at the deadline, tossed a no-hitter in his second start as a Phillie.

Things derailed quickly thereafter, however, as Lorenzen — a reliever-turned-starter — looked to fade down the stretch while navigating the tail end of a career-high 153-inning workload. He pitched to an 8.01 ERA in 30 innings following that no-hit gem, eventually being dropped from the Philly rotation to the bullpen. On the whole, Lorenzen finished with a 4.18 ERA, 17.8% strikeout rate and 7.5% walk rate.

Minnesota’s payroll currently projects around $118MM, which is about $37MM shy of last year’s $155MM mark. Earlier reports in the winter suggested a target in the $125-140MM range, so there ought to be room to add someone of Lorenzen’s caliber or a similar starter in free agency, particularly since they’re only on the hook for $4MM of DeSclafani’s salary. Further addressing the rotation isn’t a foregone conclusion, but it remains something for the Twins to consider as the clock to spring training ticks.

The Top Unsigned Corner Outfielders

By Darragh McDonald | January 29, 2024 at 11:11am CDT

Pitchers and catchers will be reporting to Spring Training in about two weeks but a slow offseason means there are still plenty of free agents out there. Over the past week, MLBTR has already taken a look at the remaining catchers, first basemen, second basemen, third basemen, shortstops, center fielders, designated hitters and starting pitchers, and we will now proceed to the corner outfielders.

Jorge Soler: He probably won’t be considered an everyday fielder by any club in the league, but his bat is clearly a notch above anyone else on this list. Soler hasn’t been the most consistent hitter over the years but is excellent when he’s in good form. 2023 was an upswing in his up-and-down career, as he hit 36 home runs and drew walks in 11.4% of his plate appearances. He also kept his strikeouts to a 24.3% rate, a tad above league average but solid by his standards. Soler’s .250/.341/.512 batting line translated to a wRC+ of 126. He walked away from $13MM and the final year of his deal with the Marlins and is now surely looking for a strong multi-year deal. But despite that potent bat, he won’t be anything more than a part-time option in the outfield. He only made 31 starts in the field last year and was graded poorly when out there, having never really received strong marks for his glovework. Whichever club signs him will surely think of him as a designated hitter who can play the field on a part-time basis, at best. The Blue Jays, Mets, Giants and Angels have been linked to him this offseason, with the Jays perceived by some as the favorite to get a deal done.
Adam Duvall: Though he has been seeing significant time in center field in recent seasons, Duvall has spent far more of his career in the corners. His work in center has been passable, but he’s now 35 years old and is probably best thought of as a corner guy who can cover center on occasion. At the plate, he doesn’t take many walks and also strikes out a ton, but he parks the ball over the fence often enough to be useful. He was punched out in 31.2% of his trips to the plate last year and only walked at a 6.2% clip, but he launched 21 home runs in just 92 games. His .247/.303/.531 slash translated to a 116 wRC+. Health is an issue, which is why his output was limited last year and he’s only once played 100 games in the last four full seasons. But the combination of solid outfield defense and home runs nonetheless makes him an attractive piece. Jon Heyman of The New York Post recently suggested that Duvall would be choosing between the Angels and the Red Sox.
Tommy Pham: After a solid run from 2015 to 2019, Pham’s production has been up-and-down over the past four seasons. He had a rough time in the shortened 2020 season, bounced back in 2021 but then struggled again in 2022. His most recent campaign was another solid bounceback, a season he split between the Mets and Diamondbacks. His 9.8% walk rate and 22% strikeout rate were both a bit better than league average. Pham hit 16 home runs, and his line of .256/.328/.446 translated a wRC+ of 110. He also stole 22 bases and slotted in at all three outfield positions, though primarily in left. As the Diamondbacks made a World Series run, he was able to add another three homers and swipe another two bags in the postseason. Back in November, he said he had received interest from roughly 10 teams, but no specific clubs were mentioned and some of them may have moved on to other targets since.
Aaron Hicks: Like many of the other names on this list, Hicks has been inconsistently productive in his career. He had a strong run with the Yankees from 2017 to 2020 but his results fell off from there. He was subpar throughout 2021 and 2022, continuing into the beginning of 2023, leading the Yanks to release him. He latched on with the Orioles and got back on track. In 65 games with the O’s, Hicks hit seven home runs and walked in 14.8% of his plate appearances, striking out just 20.8% of the time. His .275/.381/.425 line translated to a wRC+ of 129. He also stole six bases and played all three outfield spots. That’s a fairly small sample of work that followed more than two years of struggles, but Hicks will be a no-risk signing for whichever club lands him, at least from a financial perspective. The Yankees are still on the hook for his $9.5MM salary both this year and next, as well as a $1MM buyout on a 2026 club option. Any other club can sign Hicks for the prorated league minimum of $740K for any time spent on the roster, with that amount subtracted from what the Yankees pay. It’s unknown what Hicks will be looking for in a landing spot, but since he’s already got a contract, he could look to prioritize playing time or joining a competitive club.
Eddie Rosario: Rosario has been at least league average at the plate for six of the past seven seasons. In 2022, his wRC+ dipped all the way down to 62, but it rebounded to an even 100 in 2023. He dealt with some vision problems in that 2022 season and underwent a laser eye procedure, so it’s seems fair to write that year off as an aberration. Rosario hit 21 homers for Atlanta in 2023, though with a subpar walk rate of 6.6%. His .255/.305/.450 line was exactly league average, as mentioned, but Rosario’s platoon splits have become increasingly glaring as his career has progressed. His defensive grades have declined over the years as well, although he posted solid marks in 2023. Many teams will view him as a left field/DH option who’s best paired with a platoon partner. Atlanta declined a $9MM club option for his 2024 services. He’ll likely be available on a one-year deal that clocks in south of that sum.

Honorable mentions: Whit Merrifield, Randal Grichuk, Robbie Grossman, Austin Meadows, David Peralta, Jurickson Profar, Brian Anderson

Quick Hits: Int’l Signings, Cooper, Correa, Barnes

By Mark Polishuk | January 28, 2024 at 11:01pm CDT

Earlier this week, reporter Nathanael Pérez Neró of Diario Libre reported that Major League Baseball voided over 50 official and unofficial agreements between teams and international prospects. In a follow-up piece for The Athletic, Evan Drellich and Ken Rosenthal wrote that the league is trying to again crack down on a spate of suspected age and identity fraud cases within the international signing circuit, as some Dominican Republic-based trainers (known as buscones, who scout and help develop future prospects) have figured out how to work around a past set of guidelines established around 15 years ago.

International prospects can only be officially signed at age 16, yet is widely known that teams line up these deals sometimes multiple years ahead of a prospect’s eligibility period, which can lead to some paperwork confusion (at best) or outright fraud as worst. In several of the 50-odd scuttled agreements, teams including the Astros, Athletics, Mets, Red Sox, Royals, Twins, and Yankees learned that they were scouting or had agreements to sign prospects who were years older than their reported ages, including some who were lined up for hefty bonuses in future int’l signing windows.

More from around baseball as we start a new week….

The Red Sox have some level of interest in first baseman Garrett Cooper, with MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo (links to X) describing Cooper as a backup plan if the Sox can’t re-sign Adam Duvall. Cooper has some right field experience but has played only first base and DH over the last two seasons, so Duvall is perhaps the better fit as a right-handed hitter who could complement any of Boston’s lefty-swinging outfield options. Known for his solid production as a member of the Miami lineup, Cooper’s slash line dipped to .251/.304/.419 over 457 plate appearances with the Marlins and Padres in 2023
Coming off a down year that involved an ongoing battle with plantar fasciitis in his left foot, Carlos Correa is feeling fully recovered, as the Twins shortstop told the Minneapolis Star Tribune’s Gavin Dorsey and other reporters. Correa got an early start to his usual offseason work due to both his effort to entirely rehab his foot, and to make changes to his swing mechanics. It is a marked difference from last offseason, when Correa’s unusual free agent situation and concerns about a past ankle injury resulted in his taking about a month off to prevent any further injuries to impact his market. As a result, Correa said “coming into spring training, I didn’t feel like I was prepared….This year, I do feel ready.”
Free agent reliever Matt Barnes is planning to throw for scouts next week, MLB Network’s Jon Morosi reports (X link). Barnes entered the market in November when the Marlins spent $2.25MM to buy out Barnes’ $9MM club option for 2024 — an expected move, considering Barnes had a 5.48 ERA over 21 1/3 innings before his season was cut short by hip surgery. An All-Star as recently as 2021, Barnes usually posted numbers in the Red Sox bullpen from 2016-21, but injuries and inconsistency have cropped up over the last few years.

AL East Notes: Middleton, Duvall, Angels, Basallo

By Mark Polishuk | January 20, 2024 at 11:41am CDT

Keynan Middleton posted a 1.88 ERA over 14 1/3 innings and 12 appearances after the Yankees acquired the right-handed reliever from the White Sox in a deadline deal. With those kinds of numbers, it isn’t surprising that the Bronx Bombers “have engaged about a potential reunion” with Middleton, according to MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch.

About of a month of Middleton’s brief time with the Yankees was spent on the injured list due to shoulder inflammation, though he was able to return to pitch in one final game before the end of the season. Injuries have played an unfortunately large role in Middleton’s career, as he has been limited to 194 1/3 innings over his seven MLB seasons due to a number of health issues, primarily a Tommy John surgery that cost him almost all of the 2018-19 seasons. Middleton hadn’t shown much form since returning from that surgery until this season, when he had a combined 3.38 ERA over 50 2/3 frames for Chicago and New York and some elite strikeout (30.2%), grounder (56.6%) and hard-contact (31.5%) rates. While his walk rate remained below average, the 30-year-old Middleton might finally be back on track, and could again be a solid contributor to the Yankees’ bullpen.

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