Dec. 8: The Phillies have formally announced the signing.
Dec. 5: The Phillies and shortstop Trea Turner have agreed on a contract that will see him make $300MM over 11 years with a full no-trade clause. Turner is represented by CAA Sports.
Turner, who turns 30 in June, had a huge breakout campaign in 2016 and has been one of the best all-around players in the game since then. He’s stolen at least 27 bases in each full season in that time, twice getting over 40. His career batting average is over .300. Though his power wasn’t as impressive earlier in his career, he has continued pushing that portion of his game upwards, getting over 20 home runs in each of the past two seasons. Ultimate Zone Rating isn’t enamored of his glovework, though Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average both view him as a quality fielder at shortstop for his career.
Turner reached free agency this winter as part of the so-called “big four,” which also consists of Carlos Correa, Xander Bogaerts and Dansby Swanson. Based on his ability to help a team in all facets of his game, MLBTR predicted him to get a healthy contract of $268MM over eight years. That was the second highest guarantee predicted for the shortstops, behind the $288MM predicted for Correa. However, Correa is over a year younger than Turner and that prediction was spread over nine years instead of eight, meaning Turner was predicted for the highest average annual value at $33.5MM.
The actual contract that Turner has agreed to will take a much different shape than the prediction. His $300MM guarantee goes a bit beyond the $288MM mark, but with three extra years added on. That means Turner will turn 40 years old in the final season of the contract. This deal has some similarities to that of Bryce Harper, Turner’s former teammate with the Nationals who also signed with the Phillies. Harper set the record for the largest guarantee ever given to a free agent, a record he still holds, by signing for $330MM. However, he got to that guarantee over an extended 13-year stretch, an average annual value of just over $25MM per season that was well below other elite players who often get into the mid-30s. (Since that deal, the AAV record has been set at $43.33MM by Max Scherzer and tied earlier today by Justin Verlander. Among position players, Mike Trout has the record at $36MM.) Turner has followed Harper to Philadelphia and also agreed to a somewhat similar contract that prioritizes guarantee instead of salary, with Turner’s deal working out to just over $27MM per season. Turner will also be reunited with Kevin Long, who is the hitting coach in Philadelphia. Turner recently told Kiley McDaniel of ESPN that Long, who was Washington’s hitting coach from 2018 to 2021, that Long played a key role in his development as a hitter.
For the Phillies, they have been looking for a solution at shortstop for a long time now. They signed Didi Gregorius to take the job in 2020, and he performed well enough in that shortened campaign to return on a two-year deal. Unfortunately, that new contract went south real fast, with Gregorius eventually finishing 2021 with a line of .209/.270/.370 for a wRC+ of 69, indicating he was 31% below league average.
There was some speculation the Phils would pursue a shortstop last winter, as there was also a healthy class of free agents at that time, including Correa, Corey Seager, Javier Báez, Trevor Story and Marcus Semien. The club eventually shied away from that group, going into 2022 with Gregorius in the final year of his contract and prospect Bryson Stott knocking on the door of the majors. Gregorius had another awful season in 2022, getting released in August. Stott struggled for a few months but did eventually find his footing in an encouraging way. At the end of May, he was sitting on a miserable .123/.179/.151 batting line for a wRC+ of -8. Something seemed to click in June, as he hit .257/.318/.401 for a wRC+ of 102 from that point on, bringing his final line up to .234/.295/.358 and a wRC+ of 83.
The Phillies made it to the World Series in 2022, eventually falling to the Astros. They went into this winter motivated to upgrade for another run at the title in 2023 and were heavily connected to the “big four” shortstops. Having turned down on option on Jean Segura, they had an opening at second base and seemed intent on getting one of the big shortstop while kicking Stott over to the other side of the bag. Though they had some degree of interest in all four, it was reported last week that Turner was their top priority.
With this signing, the Phillies have made a splash that will have ripple effects around the rest of the league. The Dodgers, who acquired Turner from the Nats at the deadline in 2021, will now need to consider how to set their middle infield for next year. They are reportedly open to the idea of moving Gavin Lux from second base to short and sitting out the “big four” this winter. Whether that ultimates proves true or not will be revealed in time, but it doesn’t seem like Correa, Bogaerts or Swanson will have trouble finding their next employers. The Padres, Giants, Twins, Braves, Red Sox, Orioles and Mariners have been publicly linked to the shortstops in some way, with other clubs surely in the mix as well. Some of those teams were likely interested in Turner, though they will now have to proceed with one option off the board. Since Turner rejected a qualifying offer, the Dodgers will get an extra draft pick next year, with that pick pushed to after the fourth round on account of the Dodgers having paid the competitive balance tax. The Phils, also a CBT payor, will forfeit their second- and fifth-highest draft picks and see their international bonus pool reduced by $1MM.
Though the Phils will have Turner and Stott up the middle, the rest of the infield is somewhat in flux. Alec Bohm and Rhys Hoskins could stay at third and first base, respectively, as they did in 2022. However, with Harper undergoing Tommy John surgery and potentially missing the first half of the year, it’s been speculated that Bohm could move over to first, with Hoskins taking more time in the designated hitter slot while Edmundo Sosa takes over at the hot corner. Regardless of how they line it up in the field, Turner seems poised to add a speedy element to a Philadelphia lineup that skewed to the power side. Turner can, to some degree, make up for some of the production lost by not having Harper around for the first part of the year, with Harper then hopefully joining the club for the second half and postseason. Turner hit .298/.343/.466 in 2022 for a wRC+ of 128, hitting 21 home runs and stealing 27 bases along the way.
Financially, the deal will extend the commitments for the club far into the future. Due to both Harper and Turner signing such lengthy deals, the Phils already have two big contracts on the books for the 2031 season, when they are both likely to be less productive than they are now. Turner will still be on the ledger through 2033. However, for the short term, the lower AAV gives the Phils more wiggle room in 2023 when they are looking to capitalize while their competitive window is wide open. Roster Resource estimates their 2023 payroll to be $206MM with a competitive balance tax figure of $218MM. The club paid the CBT in 2022 and seems poised to do so again, as they are now just about $15MM away from the $233MM threshold for 2023. Given that they are still looking to make upgrades to the pitching staff, they will likely end up on the other side of the line for a second straight year. The CBT features escalating penalties for repeat payors, meaning the Phils will pay a 30% tax on all spending over that line, with greater penalties if they go more than $20MM above.
It’s unsurprising that the Phils are being aggressive as they look get back to the World Series again in 2023. However, they will have no shortage of competition. Despite their strong postseason run, the club actually finished third in the division in 2022 behind the Mets and Braves. Those two clubs are still set up to be strong again going forward as Atlanta continues locking up all its young stars to lengthy extensions while the Mets are spending wildly in free agency. Turner’s deal is the second huge payout for the division today, as the Mets already signed Verlander to a two-year, $86.66MM deal to replace Jacob deGrom in their rotation. With many months still to go until Spring Training, the National League East is shaping up to be a fascinating battle again in 2023.
Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported that the two sides were in agreement while Kiley McDaniel of ESPN first reported the specifics structure of the deal and the no-trade clause.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Most obvious one
For all of you who said no out there. This is for you.
In Philly, 30-30 is a lock and 40-40 not impossible.
Price of beer likely skyrocketing at Philly games.
Who is “all of you”? This was probably the most predicted outcome of this off-season.
can’t believe I picked Boegarts to the Phils.
same my man… same…
Everyone that knows Correa is better and has more plate discipline.
They’re both excellent players. Different roles, but both excellent.
David: “Everyone that knows Correa is better and has more plate discipline.”
David, although I understand your point, I think “better” in this case is based on stats? If so, many people who prefer Turner (like me) do so because he still puts up fantastic stats, but has a unique impact that so few players have – the ability to hit >.300 w/ 25+ HRs each year, plus top-of-the-league speed. Best of all, he’s average on defense so he won’t hurt you.
It’s so rare to have a guy with that blend of hitting skill, speed, and power. Another big factor when comparing/contrasting these two is that Turner is also more durable.
“speed” is the first thing to go when a player ages. Check Jacoby Ellsbury.
Everyone except those who know that since 2020 Turner has a higher fWAR (durability counts), OBP, BA, SLG, OPS, wRC+, Spd, UBR, wOBA, wRAA, ISO, and Win Probability Added.
Correa’s a better fielder though, and he has a better BB/K.
dougdeb
everyone knows Correa cheated! Should of been banned just like the rest of his cohorts!!!! Hope no one signs him. I know that won’t happen though
Yeah turner is better and that doesn’t even count the health factor.
Stupid beyond stupid…
And wants to opt out and walk away after a year or 2
I did check Jacoby Ellsbury at your suggestion. Fangraphs put his speed score at 7.7 in 2017, his last season. Of all players with at least 400 plate appearances, only four had a higher speed score. He stole 22 bases that year.
fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&…
A ridiculous amount of pressure on someone to perform for 11 years after signing, As soon as someone hits his pinkie, he’s on the IL
@Doug Jones- I think a lot of posters have just moved on. That doesn’t mean those posters do or don’t care. Fact is, Correa is going to play baseball and nobody is going to stop that and nobody is going to relitigate the cheating scandal. It’s time to let it go and just talk baseball.
Thanks for looking that up Fink. The real problem is that he had one season where he was a power hitter, and never lived back up to that
I like your take clipper, turner was the best free agent SS overall out there.
I thought it was really awesome how good Ellsberry was for the Red Sox then how terrible he was for the Yankees loved that
The problem most people have with what you are saying is there was no punishment handed out to the players. Most people have let it go for the most part because everyone knows nothing will ever come of it.
I rate the Jacoby signing as one of Cashman’s major failures, although there was some talk putting the blame on Hal — but I don’t know who floated that idea. One thing that Ellsbury still had in the bad years was his speed. Unfortunately, it sometimes led him to crash into outfield walls.
And is a worse fit for both Turner and Philly. If you thought the Phillies and Turner were not a pre determined marriage your a tool! ALL the writing was on the wall!
Speed is typically the last thing to leave an athlete like Turner! He wont be hampered unless he gain a ton of weight aka Bonds, or gets injured that impacts his abilities.
Yea but he was what, 34?
Turner stunk in the playoffs, he looked like chuckles the clown while fielding.
VegasSDfan — I think there isn’t a team in MLB that wouldn’t want “Chuckles The Clown.”
I guess the Dodgers should’ve made more of an effort to keep Corey Seager. Now they don’t have a SS.
Gavin Lux.
Should we penalize MLB or using a juiced ball MOSTLY helping the Yankees (i.e. Judge)?
YES.
The Guardians, a close runner-up for Turner’s services will now pivot to Correa as their potential new 1B
I can’t believe how close it was, I know they’ll get Correa for sure
Don’t be too sure, the Giants if they miss on Judge, they are going to be heavy after one of those stars.
The Guards will go harder
Haha, maybe so, they’ll have to go pretty hard, as the Giants won’t walk away empty handed that’s for sure. If they do, they might want to start looking for a new GM! Haha
The Giants were looking at Correa for SS, not Turner.
Lol, I love how this has become a meme at this point.
Stop with these silly post. Guardians were never close because aside Jose A. The largest they ever given was 60 mill.
Buzzkill.
I should read your posts more often! I just went looking for any article saying that. That’s 13mins I’ll never get back. LOL
OIC2021 — You said the same about DeGrom, if I’m not mistaken. I get that as a Cleveland fan, you’re frustrated. But it’s not that funny anymore. (And I wasn’t sure you were kidding the first time. Now I know better.)
Philly made sense, but 11 years certainly wasn’t obvious!
The long-term deal makes the AAV lower and gives the Phillies some payroll flexibility.
Well yeah, that’s obvious, too, but they’re still blowing past the threshold.
Right – but it’s clearly the only way to get this type of player… you ‘underpay’ for the first half, then massive overpay for the later years.
Payroll flexibility? Exactly where do they play a fading SS when he’s 37+ whose value was built not only on his batting skills, but his defense and and base stealing as well……just pointing out the obvious on what seems to be ridiculous player contract demands basically dooming the ball club to “eating” at least 2 years of contract with very little production to compare against……not payroll flexibility to me…….not everyone is a Verlander and doubt very seriously that Turner will be the same ballplayer at his 36+seasons that he is now…..
My thoughts exactly.. I’m fine with the AAV, but wow… 11 years for a guy who led the league in infield singles, whose speed will start regressing in a few years? He may turn into a VERY expensive Chase Utley for half of this contract. Anyways, the NL East is going to be elite for the foreseeable future.
That also would have been true on an 8-year deal, which would have ran through his age 37-season.
We haven’t seen a significant FA, or upcoming SS FA, get a deal beyond age 37 in recent years. If I’m mistaken, someone please tell me.
That’s what makes this surprising. More than half of this duration could prove to be quite costly.
In 8 years, inflation will tamp down the effective value of those last three. Worst case, they DFA him. Best case, baseball expands to 36 teams and some expansion team is willing to take him at 30 cents on the dollar to be their part time DH.
Look at it as 8/270 with a 30M buy out and a quarter of the money deferred.
I have one name – Jose reyes.
there hasn’t been one SS with a long contract that has worked out other than Jerter. Good luck!
Exactly what I was thinking, even sliding over to 2nd he’s gonna be the new Cano
With his body type, 3rd, 2nd, RF. DH. This guy has the potential to age like Ichiro.
Lindor till 38 last year
He’s a COMPLETELY different player than Cano
Yes, Cano was more dominant in his prime.
His value was never based on his defense. Other teams were looking at him as a 2B, because he is about league average on defense at SS. 2B is a position he can continue to play well into his mid 30s.
His value is based on his bat. He hits the ball hard and does so consistently. His speed does allow him to get a few more infield hits than many players and it will continue to do so for a few more years at least because his speed is elite, but for a SS he was only 1.3% above average in % of infield hits of total hits. He is not a Jose Siri or Bobby Witt with infield hits making up 20-25% of his total hits. Part of that is because so many of his hits are XBH.
No team “eats” any of a contract. Have to be pretty clueless to think that any billionaire or their Ivy league FO personnel are going to do something like that. They get enough surplus value at the start of the contract, so the last few years just level out the value.
Utley came to mind too. His free agent contracts worked out about ideal: Phil’s 7/85m then 2/27m. Dodger’s 1/7m and then a couple loose change years to finish career.
He was expected to get $33-34 million AAV by this site and the writers on The Athletic. He was reportedly asking for an AAV of $35 million. So $27 million represents a bargain.
The Phillies overpaid slightly in total dollars in order to get that lower AAV. The same thing they did with Harper.
Yes because of steroids.
Level out isn’t true or these guys would go broke by making a few bad decisions (don’t count Wilpon’s Ponzi scheme) They are banking hard on their early years and use these gargantuan contracts as write offs/PR to create more profit that blows cost out the water. MLB is far from broke. There is no level out period.
There are a number of ways we can look at it, but this isn’t a team that is shying away from the luxury tax, and unless this is front-loaded, they’re going to be paying handsomely for a player they may not be able to use for much the last 6 years or so of the contract.
And good for them! I love that Philly is doing everything they can to give their fans a winner! I wish Seattle made a better effort.
Websoulsurfer, thank you for pointing out that no team eats any of the contract. It’s foolish to think otherwise.
Nope. Lindor’s contract runs through his age 37 season. You might have been thrown off because he just had a birthday. baseball-reference.com/players/l/lindofr01.shtml
No one is. They have him for his prime years.
If it had been an 8 year deal it would have been for closer to $34 million AAV like the writers on this site and The Athletic predicted and the Phillies lose the payroll flexibility they got by it being only $27 million AAV.
You mean besides Arod twice? How many others have there been that have been completed?
You just said that there is a level out by saying they are banking on the early years creating more profits that blows costs out of the water. That literally means the early years surplus value levels out the contract when the last few years are less value than performance.
That’s why you let someone else get this player, clearly. Both Harper and Turner will be getting mailings from AARP before they finish their contracts.
We’ll never know how fast Cano was, because he never ran.
@styme If they win a World Series, their fans won’t care
No they are not, most media outlets stated Turner was seeking 300 mil as a baseline, 8 years 300 mil or 11 years 300 mil is the difference, that matters for Lux tax and overall payroll, yes at the last 2/3 years of Turner and Bryce they will be over paid. But id rather have Turner and Harper at 25/27 mil a year at 39/40 then Judge at 40 mil at 39/40
Someone gets it!
He’s gonna finish out this deal as a coach or advisor or janitor maybe…
Although 11 years is long and it’s hard to be optimistic about a 40 year old SS, I’d imagine their magic number was $300 and DD said we will do it over 11 years instead of 9 or 10.
Assuming they were hoping for 9/300, DD gets years 10 and 11 as throw-ins. Plus it helps the CBT throughout the years.
“DD said we will do it over 11 years instead of 9 or 10.” . . .”Plus it helps the CBT throughtout the years”
Only in the early stages. As he ages, that 28M for a player that should be retired will kill them. Win today, ruin tomorrow, thats DD’s way.
I fail to see how a 27M player can kill a big market franchise, especially as contracts keep growing at insane rates, but I won’t debate that the last few years of this contract will be disgusting. But the point is, it gives them freedom to spend even more right now, during their competitive window.
Von: Youre looking at Turner’s contract in a vacuum. One contract wont kill a franchise. But, Turner + Harper + Castellanos + Realmuto + Whoever else gets signed + Loss of Draft Picks + Loss of International Pool Money + Traded prospects = A rapid decline in a teams success.
I don’t really think it’ll hurt the Phillies. They have a good ownership group willing to spend when the opportunity presents itself. These contracts are not crippling. Will Turner and Harper be good in the final years of their deals? Probably not, but those are the only 2 guys with long-term commitments. Phils will be fine. And right now, they’re in position to spend more.
By the end of his contract half the teams in the league are going to have 5-6 guys on contracts that are $27 million AAV.
With the increases in revenue MLB is experiencing its laughable to think that one $27 million salary is going to kill a big market team like the Phillies. It wouldn’t even kill a small market team by 2033 when this one is up.
Yes, this is the point. Remember five years ago when Stanton’s contract was such an albatross? Now at $25M it’s practically a bargain. Imagine in six years how the $27M will barely be a blip on their radar. Inconvenient? Sure… Crippling? Nope
I also think there’s an assumption that he’ll become total garbage in 5 years, and that may not be the case. Even if he’s not what he has been, if he’s 75% of that, the contract won’t be terrible.
websoulsurfer — Unfortunately, I think you’re spot on.
websoulsurfer: “its laughable to think that one $27 million salary . . .”
From my post you are DIRECTLY responding to “One contract wont kill a franchise. But, Turner + Harper + Castellanos + Realmuto + Whoever else gets signed + Loss of Draft Picks + Loss of International Pool Money + Traded prospects”
Its “laughable” to think you have any memory retention skills, or understanding of other people’s points.
Agreed – felt obvious. I do horrible at the free agent predictions, but got this one right. Says something.
Picked the Phils as his landing spot. I’m not a Phillies fan, but boy am I jealous. Great player and a perfect fit in Philly. The NL east just got a whole lot tighter.
The Dodgers got Turner in part as a hedge against Seager’s pending free agency. Seager wound up in Texas, and now Turner is gone as well. Who plays short for LA next year and beyond?
I’m hoping Xander Bogaerts since I picked him going to the Dodgers in the MLBTR FA contest. I also have J.D. Martinez joining LA which would reunite both of them with former Red Sox teammate Mookie Betts.
RealSox — Lux.
Gavin Lux is the Dodgers SS. I think Chris Taylor will play 2B. I have faith they know what they’re doing. Their farm has many candidates. Miguel Vargas will see 3B, Michael Bush 1B, James Outman OF, many others…
So the Dodgers lost one $300 million shortstop to free agency. Then they lost another $300 million shortstop to free agency. Bogaerts will cost less, presumably, and perhaps sign a shorter contract. But really, are the Dodgers better off with Bogaerts than with either Seeger or Turner? And if Bogaerts goes elsewhere, do the Dodgers hop on the Correa bandwagon? Swanson? Or does all of this end up with Gavin Lux playing short.
I don’t see the Dodgers getting Xander. If they wanted to splurge on a SS, it would’ve been on Trea. I think they go after Rodon and go with Lux at SS.
Oh wow two contracts that’ll be viewed as albatross? This almost guarantees that Harper will be traded if they start to fall out of contention in the future? or does he too also have no trade clause?
27-ish million will not be an ‘albatross’ in 8 years’ time; there will likely be 100 players with 25-30 million dollar salaries by then.
Awesome. Great news. I’m very excited that the Phillies signed Trea Turner. He is reuniting with Harper and Kevin Long in Philadelphia.
Francys01;
At some point in the near future the Phillies need to rework Harper’s contract.
what’s wrong with Harper’s contract
this isn’t football, there is no reworking contracts. unless you mean adding more yrs and $
This is the same guy who yesterday said the Dodgers “don’t have the money” to pursue big name free agents this offseason. I think he is just trolling.
Suzie Samuel is not trolling. He is just that daft. Suzie will probably mute you now. Although he can take the harshest of criticism and debate your comment will surely have went to far.
Dodgers are bringing back Yasiel Puig on a 4 year $58 million contract
The homophobia of your comment makes you look bad. And in English, the verb phrase is ‘have gone,” not “have went.” Learn something.
Why?
websoulsurfer;
The man is radically underpaid in relation to what he’s done for that team and organization.
No doubt he was a factor – and a big factor – in getting Trea to come to Philly.
We have no idea how Harper will recover from his injury.
In MLB you cannot rework contracts. You can add years to it like Trout did, but not cancel a deal and rework it.
Harper is quite happy with his deal that takes him through his age 38 season and isn’t seeking an extension, so why would the Phillies?
Considering how well he hit with the injury, if all Harper can ever do is DH, at $23 million AAV that is still a pretty good deal for the Phillies.
It’s great news for a Cardinals fan that one of the best players in the league joins another one of the best players in the league on a team that almost won the World Series? You cheer for baseball differently than I do my friend. 🙂 No judgment, just saying!
Agree. I generally cheer when players DON’T land on the Cardinals (Cubs fan)… Right now, i’m cheering for Sean Murphy to land anywhere except for STL, unless the Cards trade Mason Wynn or Jordan Walker for him..
Ah, the key word in your comment was “almost”…….give the Phillies credit for getting hot at the right time and getting into the WS…….We’ll have to see whether adding Turner catapults them back…..why not just accept the comment from Francys01 for what it was….a compliment.
Huh? He said “Great news!” and “I’m very excited!” I just found it a bit strange, but again, not judging, just surprised that a contender for the same pennant would be excited about someone else signing one of the best players in the league.
Merry Christmas to us Phillies Phans!! In Dave We Trust!!
Yea buddy. Felt inevitable.
I’m a little shocked by the 11 years. It will be interesting to see how the money breaks down
Love it. Spreading the AAV out allowing them to spend more. Kids that are Phils fans can root for and buy Harper and Turner jerseys without worrying about them being traded. The last few years won’t age well, but you got a career core now.
Yup – that is my take as well. Spread it out, and deal with the fallout on the tail end of the contract down the road. The contract details to follow might be interesting, but this move so clearly makes them better for the next few years and adds yet another high character guy to that clubhouse as well that one can close your eyes to the term and total value for the deal for the nonce.
Does Turner become the lead off guy? He’s got the speed and average. And has good pop, too!
He has to become the new leadoff guy. I know that there are some out there that love Schwarbs in that role for some reason (the only legit reason is that he sees pitches), but Trea will take that spot. The fit with Trea is excellent…
It’s still going to hurt when they’re paying $27M to a 40-year-old player.
With Turners skillset, it may hurt paying that much at 36, 37, 38, 39, and 40. But, maybe they win 2 WS Championships in that time. We’ll see.
Those same kids that are buying jerseys now, at the end of these ridiculous player contracts will be adults with mortgages, kids, bills to pay, and wondering why its might cost $1,000 to take their 2 kids to go see a game…..perspectives will change with age, which is what is so peculiar about this current habit of teams obviously willing to “eat” the last several years of these high revenue contracts at the back end, for a chance at glory on the front end…..just saying!
By the way, one would guess this spells doom for the Yankees getting Judge to sign on an 8 year deal let alone a 9 year deal……guess the Yanks will have to pivot.
Not worried about 11 years down the road on this one….that could be baseball minimum wage at that point. And his athleticism will age better than many point out on here…he isn’t Juan Pierre. He can hit, he can field, he has a strong arm, he has some power…he isn’t just a slap hitter with speed.
You’re buying the chance for a world series now, and worrying about a 40 year old Trea Turner in 11 years.
@rocky7, Th way contracts are going, $27 AAV will be close to league average towards the end of this contract. Paying league average for an aging super star is not going to cripple anybody. You gave him 11 years hoping he’s elite for at least 7-8 of them. The latter years don’t matter.
No, its not.
1st off, the Phillies are counting on getting enough surplus value early in the deal that if he doesn’t play at all the last couple of years it won’t matter.
2nd, the lower AAV gives them the ability to spend the $6-7 million they saved in AAV on other players.
3rd, in 11 years $27 million will not be in the top 50 in AAV and with MLB revenue growing by leaps and bounds teams won’t mind it either. In just 4 years, the CBT threshold will be $244 million so a team could have several $27 million deals and still fit it under the cap. In 11 years, the cap will be at least $275 million.
pretty funny that you say ‘high character guy’ when he’s one of the players that got caught with old tweets that were highly immature and borderline racist/homophobic
Did not know that….
I think he was 17 at the time of those tweets. He manned up and apologized. If I was dinged for every stupid thing I said at 17 I would be done. Thank God there was no Twitter or social media then.
mlb.com/news/trea-turner-addresses-controversial-t…
Pirates bowed out after the bidding hit 20 bucks
Blew it all on Santana.
I read that as, “blew it all on Santa”. Merry Christmas.
Mom did WHAT to Santa underneath the Mistletoe last night!?!
Now I can never get that picture out of my mind. Thanks. LMAO.
Domino drop
Perfect fit. Great player. Schwarber is still a key to that team. He Is an awesome leadoff player. Clutch as ever.
Actually Schwarber hitting 2nd behind Turner & ahead of Harper would be one heck of a productive top 3.
One of the best for sure. I’d put Tatis, Soto, Machado ahead of it..but not by much.
I actually like Turner, Harper, Schwab’s, JT, 1-4
I think I had him going to the Phillies.
Nope. Had him staying in LA.
Awesome!!!
lfggggg
NL East woke up feeling frisky
So did I, doesn’t mean all went well…
Trea is going to score a lot of runs in that Philly lineup!
Yay!
Take that Mets.
The stove is so hot it’s heating my whole apartment
Good for you, your heating bill will be less!
See – 11 years/$300m really is a great deal if it’s already lowering heating costs for fans!
Hahahahaha Nice Cainer
LOL
Take THAT inflation!!!
What inflation? Inflation is only a thing if corporate profits are down. That is not the case in the US. They are at a 70 year high. That means its price gouging.
Inflation has nothing to do with corporate profits and everything to do with government pumping M1 into the economy with no increase in production. Send everyone a “stimulus” of a $million and a loaf of bread would soon cost $10,000.
He is right. You are wrong Who. Its not inflation if profits are up.
The definition of “inflation” is an excess of M1; too many $ chasing too few products. If there are too few products, it’s obvious that productivity is low, relative to the $ that such productivity would normally generate. A company can make a profit, regardless of the state of the economy, simply by cutting unnecessary overhead. The ONLY way that M1 can exceed what would normally occur is when government injects fiat $ (that doesn’t reflect produtivity) into a marketplace. Profits are irrelevant.
Well, yes, according to Robert Reich, and he certainly doesn’t have an agenda…
A conspiracy among all corporations to arbitrarily increase prices? I would be elated if my competition decided to “price gouge” as I would very soon have most of their customers.
One shortstop and two of the top pitchers down.
Top first baseman also with Jose Abreu signing in Houston.
Top two 1B if you include Rizzo going back to the Yankees.
11 years at 300m is what they’re saying.
Not surprising. Well done Phillies.
Ahhh man!!! Son of a %@%#!!! Time to get going Dodgers. Just lost a big bat!
I’d be willing to bet they will shift their focus to Correa/Xander, like asap. Plug it and move on
Ok Xander it is!
TJ, LAD let Turner leave, even though I’m a Braves fan, I smell LAD making a very smart move, not sure what it is, but they’ll keep winning 100 games a year.
Curly o’l boy, I really wanted him to stay!! We need another bat now. X or Swanson make sense right??? What do you think?
I’d feel lousy if Swanson left, I’m a sentimental slob, LAD could still pull the strings on Adames & that would tic me off if the Braves don’t resign Swanson
Hahaahaha I forgot about you being a gigantic Braves fan. I apologize haha We will look elsewhere.
A braves fan now but a NY fan the first 55 years of my life. Watched the greats play in Yankee stadium since 1956.
I’m confused, you’re a LAD fan?
I have been a Halo fan since birth but since residing in East LA the past few years I have come to like the Dodgers as well. I broke a blood oath and was excommunicated but it’s cool. With all that Yankee wisdom I will definitely have a question or 2 for you sometime. About some of the greats from era’s past. Like Mick hitting that ball that sounded like an explosion people say…Supposedly bounced off the roof/fascade in right field so hard that it landed back in the infield near 2B…
‘Preciate the response. I was adopted in 1956 & saw a lot of Yankee games growing up. Got a kick watching the Mets. Baseball has been a major brick in my foundation, that’s why the foundation seems to be crumbling. BB seems to continue to be watered down. Now we have 3rd place teams & maybe lower, capable of a WS. Where have you gone Joe DiMaggio?
Yeah I can spot people that know ball and have been around it for a while a mile away.. Certain aspects are certainly watered down as you say. Home Runs over hits is the way of the present and future apparently. Joe D lives on in spirit through Yankee Clipper!
Agreed 11 years for a 30 year old speed guy???? That seems a little long.
That seems a little insane but it seems like that’s the way we are going with FA now a days.
Buyer’s remorse eventually. Can you see him playing shortstop at 35 let alone 40. Shows that NL “Conference “ teams actually now embrace the DH.
I don’t see him at ss at 35. Will he keep his speed? Will his power increase? A dh hitting 20 hrs isn’t ideal.
This is the typical all the value is in the first half of the contract. I’m sure the Phillies know that the last half of this contract will potentially be very bad but the production over the next 5-6 years is worth it. More power to them.
The Phillies don’t. No one does. They see him moving to 2B in 3-4 years, maybe sooner, and playing there until he is 36 or 37.
But a 2B hitting 20 HRs is still good.
The Dodgers were good for a very long time.
That is over now.
Losing Trea won’t make that much of a difference to the Dodgers..
Are you assuming they will put half their roster into a time machine?
@ggsocalfrc
What? Because they lost one player from a team that just won 111 games?
Can you pass the bong….?
They are basically down to Betts and Freeman as difference makers in the lineup. Seager, Bellinger, T. Turner, J. Turner, Muncy, Taylor are all either gone or past their prime.
Buehler is out for all of 2023.
Urias is a Free agent after 2023
Kershaw is going on 35
With regard to Turner, he is a 5 WAR shortstop and a career .300 hitter. I’m not sure when Dodgers fans decided losing that was no big deal, but it is.
Muncy and CT have plenty left in the tank!
They hit .419 last year. Both of them combined…… So good luck with that.
I appreciate the well wishes. They are primed for comeback years. Strap in!
Two Turners. A Muncy. A Bellinger. And 4-5 role players including Rios. All FA or gone. That is just the position players. Dodgers will still be good, but you cannot lose that many players without it impacting your win-loss.
The Dodgers will spend money this offseason so those guys will be replaced, but like many that follow baseball, I think they are planning to dip under the CBT threshold this year.
Whatever is in your bong is obviously too strong for you.
99, I’m a Giants fan. Most of other giants fans that post are extremely doomsday centered. But there are few doomsday Dodger fans. They typically post positively, as they should, because the Dodgers org is head and shoulders the best…sorry to say. Why does losing Tturner make you so doomsday-ed. Jeez, they’re still the team/organization to beat. You think there’s no plan to replace Turner? Its the Dodgers. Besides, pitching is their priority if you truly follow them. Look for pitching pickups for them. Probably Rodon.
I’m no Doomsday Dodger fan, I’m a Padres fan actually.
I’m pretty surprised the Dodgers didn’t get Verlander. That seemed like just the kind of move they would make. Uber talented guy on a short term deal. The fact that they didn’t land him is probably just as concerning as losing Turner.
I doubt the Dodgers get Rodon, he seems to be after more years than they will offer.
I had read that Verlander/Upton had sold property and moved to Florida. It was expected he’d play on east coast. So Verlander to Dodgers wasn’t happening. The Padres have $$ issues so the Dodgers are still top in division. just my opinion.
Pepiot Miller Stone Grove & Jackson Time for the kids to grow up
Kershaw Urias Gonsolin May & plenty of 2 tier Pitchers like
Rondon, Senga ,Bassit , Eovaldi, Heaney, Taillon Stripling Wacha
Syndergaard Severino T Walker Manaea Quintana Kluber, Civale cheaper Options Prior is a pitching Guru
Plus we do do need to see if we can tie Urias long term
there just not as sexy as DeGrom & Verlander
I feel losing Trea was huge becuase he just makes things happen but not 11 yrs worth it… Prefer the Judge in LA.
Pitchers are a bigger risk for the money I prefer a consistent threat of a bat then a SP tieng up cash with TJ and you don’t know what your going to get back. just luck of the draw
Lol must be a wishful thinking Padres fan
Did it occur to anyone that the LAD saw something & let Turner escape? I’m a Braves fan, but LAD seems to be ahead of the pack. 11 years is a career commitment, Turner & Harper could be on crutches in 5 years, a scary commitment by Phil…
LAD, similar to the Mets, is finding success with short term deals. They knew Turner wanted years. Dodgers prefer to splurge big in short bursts. Phillies don’t mind spreading it out over a long period to lower the AAV. Both strategies have their validity.
Not at all. Turner said he wanted to play closer to home. That was not secret. He wanted out of LA. Turner did not even discuss an extension with the Dodgers.
That’s just no Friedman’s MO to give out big money long-term deals. He’ll take risks with shorter-term deals but Turner was never going to accept a short-term deal. I’m guessing trade more than free agent splash, although you may still see one. Ever since Turner was traded to the Dodgers I thought he was a 1.5 year rental with Lux potentially being the replacement. I still say 60/40 on SS trade/Lux as replacement for Turner.
Betts and Freeman enter the chat.
Freeman was a six-year deal. Long but much shorter than big contracts out there. He doesn’t seem like he’s going to stop raking anytime soon. Betts is really the only big time deal. That’s pretty low for a ball club with deep pockets.
I don’t think the Dodgers (Friedman), make a big splash during free agency this winter. I think they’ll want to see how the youngsters do & probably be aggressive at the trade deadline this summer.
I think they will make some moves. I don’t think Friedman wants to make many big splash signings but I don’t think he’s ready to give out many of these openings to the youngsters. I think you’ll see some trades and some smaller splash signings, and potentially a slot or two available for the youngsters if they show that they’re ready in spring training. I wouldn’t count on a lot of the youngsters making the roster, at least not at the beginning of the season.
Don’t expect the Dodgers to spend big this winter. The player they will go hard after doesn’t hit free agency til next winter
Who is that?
Ohtani
I think the same is true for the Red Sox regardless of the pap coming out of Bloom’s mouth today.
ONLY 27M!?
Only?
You do realize the end of that contract will be painful, right? Even though they are a large market team.
Old Man Turner? He’s gonna be lucky if he can hit his own weight when they get into the dog days of summer when he’s 38 and still has 3 years to go.
I hope the fan can afford the increase in tickets for the next 11 years because that’s who pays for the majority of players salaries
So bitter.
“I hope the fan can afford the increase in tickets for the next 11 years because that’s who pays for the majority of players salaries”
Tickets are priced irrespective of player salaries. They are priced to maximize profit. Blame the people who are willing to spend more and more to attend a game instead of the players. If the Pirates or A’s, for example, could get fans to spend $150 a ticket, they would, and they wouldn’t raise payroll accordingly.
Thats a pretty naive comment regarding tickets being priced irrespective of players salaries…..salaries are a sunk cost which most definitely are calculated into not only ticket prices, but every other cost the ballclub incurs….the only way clubs can “maximize profit”, is if they know exactly what their costs are……..it may not be the driving force, but you better betcha owners are pricing tickets with salaries in mind.
Owners are not pricing tickets with “salaries in mind”
Do you think tickets are cheaper if the team has a 160Million dollar payroll v. 300 million?
Makes no difference. Ticket prices are influenced by the market and success of the team.
The Rays could go add $150MM in payroll tomorrow but it doesn’t mean that they can go raise ticket prices and expect buyers.
Demographics effect ticket prices. Just because the team is spending more money doesn’t mean the citizens of Philadelphia are making more. Everyone has a limit and transportation and food will always be ahead of going to a baseball game.
By the end of that contract backup infielders will be making $20 million at this rate. It’s a bargain just like the Harper deal.
This one belongs to the Reds;
I don’t know…..
Trea is extremely athletic and a smart ballplayer as well. He’s far more than a player that just has speed. Unless he suffers a major debilitating injury he may be a bit overpaid, but he’ll contribute to the team he’s on.
27 a year for an old washed up player won’t hurt that much. Guys are making 30 a year left and right.
It will probably have a salary arc where Turner is making less than 27 in the final three years. The final three years of Harper’s deal, he’ll make 23.5 per year IIRC. The 27 AAV helps with the luxury tax evaluation more than anything…
yeah, for 11 yrs!
Wow. Huge upgrade. Nobody is going to want to face that lineup.
Good for Turner. He will be 40 when the contract ends.
Yes! Chalk up another one for moi in the FA contest!
AaronSapoznik;
I hope you win.
If the prize is a lot of money maybe you can buy the White Sox a catcher.
(Smiley character was deleted)
11 years? That’s pretty shocking. Thought it would be 8
The Phillies would’ve given him 15 years if he asked for it. That’s how they operate. Push chips all to the center now. Who cares what the future holds…
Flags fly forever, right?
Let’s go!!!!!
Nats and Phillies always seemed interchangable to me. Too similar colors.
My OCD is always bothered by contracts with odd AAV’s and thus total dollars that don’t average cleanly across total years.
Why not $300.3M? Why not $302.5M? Etc.
Dodgers fell asleep this off season
Yep they never make big moves after December.
Can’t tell if sarcastic or not…
Wtf
It is Dec 5th.
I bet its the years. Dodgers wouldn’t want 11 years for his age.
Disagree, Dodgers are resetting their tax and going all in on Shohei Ohtani next year. That is their master plan.
Whew, time to grab a 12pack of Sam Adams…..
Welcome Trea, you are going to love Philly…..Now to how the line-up will be constructed.
Turner, Schwarber, Harper..
Harper won’t be back until the ASB, but that is undoubtedly the plan. Scary good lineup, especially if Castellanos rebounds.
Only the Padres Murderer’s Row of Tatis, Machado, Soto is scarier than Turner, Schwarber, Harper.
Wow that’s a lot of money
was another team really willing to go 10? or even 9? Probably 9, I’d say. Kinda seems like the Phils just bid against themselves.
Agree raltongo I think they threw out the crazy page contract and said take it or leave it.
The Phillies intentionally add the years to lower the AAV. Just like the Harper deal which is now considered a steal.
Would you rather a 30y/o Harper at $33m/year or a 24y/o Acuña at $17m/year? That my friend is Webster’s definition of a steal.
One is a steal. The other is a mega-steal.
Of course Acuna, but one has nothing to do with the other.
Betcha Acuna becomes very unhappy in the next few years and requests a trade..
Rumors are already swirling that Acuna is unhappy
Really? Can you source any of the rumors of his discontent? Let him stay healthy and outperform his current contract before demanding a trade. Make sense?
Dude I’m just saying that rumors were going around the fan base as people were speculating when the trade rumors were happening a while back. Not every rumor has to be sourced and half the sourced rumors are BS anyway like last night with the Braves and Murphy rumor that AA squashed.
Harper is $27.5m. $26m salary plus his signing bonus is $1.5m per year. Acuna will be 25 in a week. Just getting the numbers right. Not splitting hairs.
I’ll take Harper all day. Especially if we’re looking back 3 years. In 3 more years, maybe I start to reconsider.
Barring this year which was an outlier for Acuña, and due to his acl recovery, he has Harper beat on practically every metric. If he didn’t get injured Acuña was hands down the favorite for mvp in 21. Batting avg, hits, extra base hits, home runs per at bat, total bases,ops, runs rbi’s, runs produced, runs created, stolen bases, fielding, put outs. Harper is a better player now only because of Acuña’s injury. Pre injury? Harper could only dream of doing what Acuna could do on a baseball field. Acuña, if healthy is a top 3 player in the league. And Harper ain’t 1 or 2 . Btw, Acuna at 25 is still 5 years younger than Hsrper.
13 years and $330 million. $25.385 million AAV. Just getting the numbers right and splitting the middle.
You name reminds me of Churchill House Cottage Cheese Pancakes. Are you from Vermont?
But he did get hurt. So did Harper but he produced more.
Even if he didn’t get hurt, Acuna was not in Harper’s class in 2021. Harper beat him in every metric.
2021
Harper
.309/.429/.615/1.044 with 42 HR, a 179 OPS+, 170 wRC+, .431 wOBA
Acuna
.283/.394/.596/.990 with 24 HR, a 158 OPS+, 157 wRC+, .412 wOBA
Harper was also better in walk% and K%. As well as WPA, RE24, RC/G, Total Bases, XBH.
The only place Acuna was better was defense.
The stats don’t lie. But you tried to.
Lets expand that so you have no room to hide from the truth.
2021-2022
Harper
.300/.402/.571/.973 with a 165 OPS+ and 8.3 WAR
Acuna
.272/.368/.484/.853 with a 132 OPS + and 6.3 WAR
Since 2019
Harper
.282/.394/.546/.940 with a 150 OPS+ and 14.7 WAR
Acuna
.273/.371/.508/.879 with a 130 OPS+ and 13.7 WAR
Age 20-24
Harper
.288/.397/.525/.921 with a 145 OPS+ and 20.8 WAR
Acuna
.277/.370/.517/.887 with a 133 OPS+ and 17.6 WAR
BTW, I used bWAR, because fWAR has not been kind to Acuna. The differences using fWAR are stark.
Harper has been just plain better than Acuna.
Acuna is a oft-injured malcontent with immense talent that may never be realized and he is just 25 next season. Scary to have that many injuries that young. Does not bode well for his future.
Acuna
.283/.394/.596/.990 with 24 HR, a 158 OPS+, 157 wRC+, .412 wOBA 3.6war…
These were his stats on July 10. The day he got injured. Maybe you forgot that small detail. Acuña by every account was headed to win mvp. A little disingenuous on your part to use half a season and compare to Harper’s full season. Harper ended up with 5.9war for full season. Acuña 3.6 for half a year. Not far fetched to say barring injury he would’ve had an 8war year and most likely solidifying an mvp. We’ll see what this year brings…
@Pads and @Joey I use Spotrac for salary info and used his actual salary for 2023, not the CBT salary. But this actually makes Harper more valuable. I’m not saying Acuña isn’t good. He’s fantastic. But I agree, if we start saying he was hurt, then Harper should get the same consideration. Harper came back from a broken thumb (and a torn UCL) and watched his average (eww. I know) drop from above .300 to .280ish. He was terrible when he came back. So if we’re cherry-picking numbers, let’s look pre-broken thumb.
Again, both are great players but if I had to choose today between them, I take Harper. That’s all I’m saying. It’s seems Pads may agree based on the other posts.
And no, I’m not from Vermont. I’ve lived in SE PA my entire life (Harper bias, probably some) so I had no idea about the place.I haven’t been to Vermont since I was 13 (trust me, that was some time ago). Maybe it’s time to go back and eat some pancakes.
Woulda, coulda, shoulda. He got hurt. The stats I posted are what he produced, not some figment of your imagination.
the only way to keep him from the mets
Mets were never tied to Turner in any way outside of fan hopes.
Phillies are about winning.
Where’s Farhan? Anyone seen him lately?
What? He’s going after Judge first and Correa if he loses Judge, moving Crawford to third. Pretty sure even this app had they reported earlier along with EVERYONE ELSE.
I know, just getting anxious
Central Valley: Zaidi is looking at Correa and Bogaerts and hopeful for Judge.
PS are you from the CA Central Valley?
Yes sir, California. I know they’re waiting on Judge first, just getting anxious to see them make some big moves.
The Dodger strategy seems to be do more by doing nothing. Shrewd!
Nice, I grew up in Lodi myself. Do you see the Giants getting a big free agent?
Nice, I grew up in Lodi. Do you see the Giants signing a big free agent or settling for 2nd/3rd tier guys?
Not too far from me! I think ownership desperately want Judge, they need a superstar to market and sell tickets.
Fans are getting impatient watching the Padres and Dodgers obtaining multiple superstars and and the Giants continue rolling out their platoon lineups.
They have a ton of financial flexibility to retool their lineup, espy with the farm still not producing.
We shall see though…
Word is Judge wants assurances that signing him won’t preclude further spending. I think we all say duh to that “demand”. So, fingers crossed, they sign judge the sign others. Some have posted that 9 years is not gonna pan out BUT it’s the further spending it brings that lead me to feel it’s worth it. There is also the feeling that a promise of going after Ohtani could attract Judge. Just some things I’ve read in local stories/interviews. A ton more $ is coming off the books after 23.
He is talking to Correa today.
Judge is starting to drool at the prospect of asking for fifteen years after some of these contracts…. Goodness, there’s going to be quite a few older folk hobbling around the bases in 10 years.
11 YEARS???
LOL 11 years? The dude is getting paid until he is FORTY!
Wowwwww
His speed will decline. His chase rate will not get better.
But as long as that slide stays smooth through 40, I’m OK with this deal.
Right, but the key is 27 a year for a top 10 player in baseball. It’s a good deal upfront. The latter years he won’t live up to the contract, but at that time I imagine 25 a year to be pretty common. So ugly at the end, a bargain up front, as for the middle? Time will tell.
Damn
That’s a long contract…..
Great next move to put icing on the cake is Cody Bellinger on a 1 year deal.
Would Belli be an upgrade over Marsh?
While I really like Brandon Marsh, Bellinger is a former MVP who also plays stellar defense who could play OF or 1B to shore up weaknesses. Thinking that with CBP coupled with the hitting coaching of Kevin Long he could become an offensive threat along with playing on Murderers’ Row Lineup.
That’s a crazy contract. I am sure they got some one to insure it. Phillies are now truly a top 5 MLB team now.
Very expensive to insure contracts, and no one will do it for anywhere near 100%.
nah they aren’t
kahnkobra;
Nonsense.
Talk to the few companies in the world that will insure professional athletes.
They are gonna pay him until he’s 40…oof. Speed is his best trait and that doesn’t age well. Good luck Philly! At least they are spending money unlike the Braves 🙁
The Braves just locked up Riley, Harris, and Strider in the last few months,. They werent free.
True but Braves country is waiting on what happens at SS and this is first domino to fall. Concern is the spending is increasing with more years and Braves historically are on the cheaper side.
Unfortunately they are on the cheaper side with how much money they are printing from the battery and 2nd highest attendance in baseball. Terrible.
Cheaper side? Already a record high payroll and they have said that they will go over the tax threshold if needed. Put the bong down guys. They aren’t cheap, they just don’t puke money at everyone.
The biggest FA contract in Braves history is BJ Upton at 75 million over 5 years. They don’t spend big on Free Agents and have a big whole at SS. They maybe priced out of the remaining big time SS. They are on the cheaper side historically when it comes to Free Agents and as the numbers get higher with more years I just don’t see them signing a big time FA. They are more likely to trade for someone.
Braves are smart
A lot of people get offended by the word cheap lol. You can be smart by being cheap Or dumb by being cheap. Braves are usually the smart cheap lol
Smart + cheap = thrifty
Really wanted Mets to follow up the Verlander signing with Turner. Missed opportunity. Phils line-up is ridiculous. Mets have their work cut out for them to avoid 3rd place finishes for the next decade.
dlw0906;
Mets have the most money.
Phillies have Dombrowski and money.
Red Sox fans used to have Dombrowski. They hate him more every day.
To play where?
not really
WHOOOO IT’S WARMING UP IN HERE FELLAS!!!!
Hey, much better than the Porcello thread eh?
Turner > Judge
This is just stupid money and this contract will age poorly lol
Agreed.
I’m shocked, too. He can also play 2B and CF. Does that mean he’ll be at 2B as he ages or just DH? SS and CF towards the end of the contract seem crazy to think about in his late 30s.
Prob DH. I think Phils made this move thinking he can be a 30+ HR guys in that ball park
I am sure he will play SS as long as he is able to provide at least average defense and then move to 2B for all but the last couple of years. .
Heard the same about Harper which many consider a steal now. 27 a year won’t kill them, even if Turner has no knees at age 37.
Its stupid money if you aren’t a legit contender. The phillies are the national league champions friend.
Call me crazy but I would’ve rather signed Dansby for like half the price or Bogaerts.
Hi Crazy.
It is about which teams want to give big money to a player. 11 years 300 mil to Turner is big money.
James1955;
Whatever Tatis and Lindor got……Trea is a bargain.
Agree to an extent. Neither will be 41 at contract end like Turner whose game is nearly 100% built on speed. Awesome first three years ahead. Decline after. Window is short with two $300Million contracts and really only two viable starters. Suarez is league average and Falter is worse
bryan c;
Have you watched Turner play?
Yes he uses his speed. No, his game is not based 100% on it. He hits, hits with power at times, has great reactions on defense, is an extremely smart ballplayer and a gamer.
He was that way before even got to the Dodgers.
Sure have. Every year. His game is not 100% speed but you get my point no? It was a slight exaggeration but at age 36-41 if you don’t think he will hit a major wall I think you should look closer. Again, amazing add to an already potent offense but they, like Atlanta, have now backed themselves into loving their team long term with little flexibility other than to spend over the tax limits. And unlike Atlanta, the Phillies defense and pitching is below average and average respectively
wow, just wow. Maybe by year 10 he can start to improve his plate discipline.
You mean a former batting champ… right?
Did the Bryce Harper and take more years to bring down the AAV to help them sign players. Respect. Do t care about last 3 years of that deal
Exactly.
besides, 11 years from now, 27 mil could be league min haha
Correa will want a 13 yr deal now.
11 years for a .200 hitter in the postseason
Small sample size.
.238, but thanks for chiming in for small sample size theater.
His career .302 in the regular season and more importantly .137 OPS+ over the last 3 seasons is why he got signed to a big money deal.
Now you can go back to your B movies, Figglehorn.
Padres?
Trea was considered by most to be the best of the 4, correct? He’s a 27.2 mil AAV.
So what do the other 3 get?
Correa is the best of the 4 and younger. Fans dislike him for the 2017 Astros scandal so most don’t want to admit that he is the best SS available this season.
Yea, a .260 hitter that takes two months off every summer. Definitely the best. Where’s the eye-roll emoji on here?
That you don’t understand is your problem. I guess that is obvious since you brought up BA instead of a stat that really matters.
Correa is the best SS on the market. Best career OPS+. Best DRS. Best bWAR. Only Bogaerts has more games played per season on average. Take out 2017 and he is still the best of those 4. And he is a year or more younger than any of the others.
Since you brought it up, Correa had a .291 BA in 2022 and .279 for his career. That is not .260, is it?
Baseball is obviously not your thing.
LMAO. Nice takedown.
Trea had the best 2022 season of all 4, but I don’t think I would make him the most wanted. I think the fact that Correa and Swanson are a year younger and pretty much on par with Turner makes them just a bit higher in the rankings.
I don’t say this as a Phillies fan (who know gets to cheer on Trea), but in what world is Swanson on par with Trea or Correa?
Up until last year, I think most would have considered Dansby a league average bat with a solid glove. Don’t get me wrong, he went off last year (and kudos for him for doing it in a contract year), but even him “going off”, he was still only an above average bat (the worst of the 3 listed) with a fantastic glove. When you compare them over the last few years, the gap widens, considerably.
He’s a solid player. And he’ll sure make a good bit of money that he’s rightfully earned. But Dansby was the lowest ranked (here) of the 4 SS with the smallest money guarantee for a reason.
I meant his 2022 season was on par with Turner.
He isn’t. Not by a longshot. That is why his expected deal is $150 million or so less than what Turner just got.
Which is why, in my opinion, the team getting Swanson will be getting the much better deal.
Speaking as Dodgers fan: pass on that contract
I think you are speaking for every team NOT named the Phillies
Echopark;
Be prepared for a lot of passing this offseason.
Damn. I should’ve been a baseball player.
NL east is the beast!
10centBeerNight;
Yes….
Has past the NL west.
The same thing is progressing in the American League.
P.S. And I listened to that game on the radio.
Time to schedule the Phillies/ Padres rematch right now.
Yeah like when everyone last year said the Dodgers were gonna walk away with the WS easily……..
Noone but Dodgers fans said that. Walking away with a WS, means winning games in October, thus the Dodgers are of no concern.
99socalfrc;
Good point!
Now Preller has to get one of the other SS’s as well as Rodon
…..might want to trade for Sean Murphy and
sign
Brandon Nimmo as well.
Why does everyone think the Padres need a shortstop?
They have a guy who posted 5.1 WAR last year at the position, just turned 27, and is a defensive wiz going into the non shift era.
And they have some guy named Tatis.
Like seriously people need to quit with the Padres and SS. If Preller signs one of the big 4 shortstops it’s probably bad news. Dude has way bigger needs.
They have some guy named Tatis.
writers/pundits can’t help but stir up fans with crazy rumors (such as about Pads signing a SS). Tis the season, writers fish, fans bite, Preller lives on in everyone’s head
Padres…..LOL.
The Padres are good, ask the Mets and the Dodgers.
These deals are wack! we need a lockout!
They need a pitcher, but that is a scary lineup.
Ya know, my birthday is tomorrow and I was hoping he’d sign then, but a day early isn’t too bad
Well at least you’ll forever remember the day the Phils signed Turner? Happy early birthday….
Can’t believe Pittsburg lost out on this guy. Guess they will need to pivot to Judge next
LMAO. Best comment of the day.
So Manny Machado is for sure opting out then?
LMAO WTF
Dafuq?
Obviously the luxury tax is not effective with the number of teams exceeding it.
Such a joke.
This one belongs to the Reds;
Yes…
Was thinking of that the other day.
Those penalties are going to be reset – made much harsher.
They have to be if the game is going to make it long term.
Wrong direction. In the next CBA the penalties will be made less harsh and the CBT threshold will continue to increase at the same pace putting it at a minimum of $275-280 at the end of the next CBA.
MLB revenue has gone up much faster than player salaries as evidenced by years of average salaries stagnant or reversing while revenue increased,
This is a market correction that was necessary to prevent worse run in when the next CBA is negotiated, and it will continue.
Excellent for Trea, but it feels like bad news for the Braves. From all the analysis of the free agent SS class, it seems he was the #2 option. If he is getting $300M, does that raise Xander and Dansby’s asking price? If so, I’ll be able to buy my son a Dansby Braves jersey at a considerable discount at least 🙂
Spending “stupid” money is great!
I don’t know how I feel about this deal. Seems too risky for one player, especially with a no trade. Why do teams give those when they know roster flexibility/turnover is key to the ongoing success of a franchise?
MLBTR’s prediction had turned getting $33.5mm AAV, this comes in at $27.27mm. So only $6mm a year off. I’m not a big Turner fan, but he will certainly help Philly. If they get at least one WS with Harper and Turner the contracts would no doubt be worth it.
11 years? Insanity. You know Correa will want more.
As a Dodger fan I loved watching Trea play, but that is a lot of years for a guy who will turn 41 when the contract expires….if he makes it that long.
This contract takes him through his age 40 season.
This is great. The Mets will be paying upwards of $400 mil when it’s all said and done…….just to try and grab a wild card spot.
So Turner is at 11/300 and Machados deal was for 10/300. Which is the better deal? Haha
I would think Machado as he has more power. Could move to first in later years. Once Turner ages, and slows down he will be a liability. Turner is great for speed mostly.
11 Years! Wow! Good way to keep the AAV down.
Upvote for your name. And the fact that you recognized that the years are to keep the AAV down.
Thanks on both!
Phillies sure love those long contracts..
It makes sense though. They’re prioritizing winning now when Harper is in his prime. I respect the commitment to winning at any price.
Man, once Harper is back getting through that 1-5 is going to me rough for pitchers. Great move and great fit overall
Phillies aren’t done yet. Need a starter plus bullpen pieces. Solid lineup once Bryce gets healthy.
They better not be done yet.there still a borderline playoff team like last year, without pitching depth.
Congrats to Trea. Great player. Great guy too. He is getting out of LA like he wanted and getting paid.
Like Harper this is a longer contract than anyone thought in order to keep the AAV down. I don’t think anyone expects Turner to be playing at age 40 but the length of this deal gives the Phillies some payroll flexibility.
I don’t think he wanted out of LA, but who could turn down 11 years $300 mil. Dodgers weren’t going to offer that.
He said he wanted to play closer to home. He never negotiated with the Dodgers at all. What do those things say to you?
Ughhhhhhh, this guy back in the NL EAST too! Slugfest all season long between the Braves, Mets, and Phillies. We better get a SS
Eleven years, crazy. I don’t think that contract will look too good long term. They better win a World Series or two.
Great fit, horrible contract. 11 years for any player, at any age, is absolutely asinine.
The Rays and Wander Franco say hi!
And I think his contract is stupid also.
Yea and in 2 3 years ur gonna see how much more a GOOD SS is gonna cost ya. We good
They want to win now. He helps them win now. Who cares what happens 9, 10 , or 11 years from now? The whole management of the team might be different. The owner might sell by then. Who cares?
You apparently with that response
It’s all about that AAV, trying not to handicap the Phillies’ ability to add top teir talent as it ages.
11 years for a speed first guy seems like an awful contract to me
He’s a pure hitter though, aside from his wheels. Good pop too, and he’ll be in a hitter’s friendly park. He might not age as poorly as the average fast guy.
@Wagner>Cobb he’s definitely more than just a speedster in the mold of Billy Hamilton or Dave Roberts but if he loses a step I think his overall game definitely declines
Love this!!! Let’s gooooo! #ringthebell
The Phillies will regret this one in 3-4 years.
Probably, it’s not a 11 year window. It’s a 3 or 4 year window for just being competitive.
Bryce for 13 years, now Trey for 11. But the Dodgers are the bad guys…
There are no bad guys….except the Yankees.
Dave Dombrowksi doesn’t care.
Braves time to trump Verlander and Turner with Judge
Great move by the Phillies, Turner was the best SS the last two years with a 13.1 WAR and lead the league in stolen bases.
This deal is gonna be bad after year 3
LETS GOOOOOOOOOO
Going to miss watching him play for the Dodgers but 11 years, wow
Those 2030 Phillies are gonna be a fun bunch!
The 1983 Wheeze kids have entered the chat…..yeah am GenX…..
i remember gary matthews destoying the dodgers and paul owens looking silly in a uniform
more like the bad News Bears
We Braves have Vaughn Grissom!
Enjoy your wild card, Phillies….the East is ours, baby!!
And I could care less. I’m fine with any ticket to the dance because I know we’ll show up then.
I dont get these people getting on a team making a wild card spot?? It’s all about getting in the playoffs anyway you can. And look what happens
No surprise. Great signing but the years is way too much. As a Mets fan, I’ll give the Phillies props, great move for a position they needed but I have to say it, they still suck lol.
Who has won a pennant more recently? Enjoy Mr. April as your manager.
Well the Phill’s don’t suck, 2nd SUCKS! Now, they have a lot more work to do besides Turner. Because talent wise, they were far from the 2nd best team last year.
They won the NL yes they were the 2nd best team in the league. They beat the cards. Then nobody gave them a shot against the braves and we beat them along with the all in Padres. Its stupid saying they are not the 2nd best team when they made the world series lol its all about getting in the playoffs.
Friedman loves trading for players with no intentions of re-signing them. Maybe one day he will run the Dodgers like a big market club.
I loved having him on the team…so fun to watch but let’s be honest, his average is only as high as it is because of all the balls he can currently beat out for hits. I just don’t see that happening in 5 or 6 years let alone 11.
Does it have to be for all 11 years?
He had 17.1% IF hits. About 3% higher than league average, but only about 1% better than average for SS. Not sure of the reason for that because he is one of the fastest players in the league, but it says clearly that he is not hitting for high average just because of beating out infield hits. That certainly contributes, but only a few hits more than the average player.
He did lead all SS in XBH the last two seasons, so that may have some to do with why his speed didn’t play as much of a factor into his BA as it does with some other SS. That is also illustrated in his SLG% which was 2nd to Tatis.
Turner has some power hitting 19-28 HR the last 4 full seasons.
If it was the Padres bidding on SS I would still want Correa, but Turner would not be much of a step down from him and he is likely to produce at an elite level for at least the next 3-4 years and a high level for a few more years after that. Will he be a superstar at the end of that contract? Not likely. Only been a handful of 40 year old players that were. Will it be worth it if he stays healthy for at least another 5 years? Definitely.
WOW! That’s A LOT of years, but it did bring the AAV down to a reasonable number. Gotta think his elite speed will fade for the 2nd half of that deal though.
He will be at 2B for the last 6 years of the deal, so that will be ok. At $27 million AAV he will not be priced high for the 2B market by then.
WOW. WOW WOW
Great for the Phillies and Harper! Now I can see the Dodgers going hard after Bogaerts especially if Judge says no to LA.
11yrs wouldn’t have happened w/out DH
11 years … SMH these contracts get more and more ridiculous
agreed. all of a sudden i am happy to have Bloom
almost
It’s basically what the government pays me in oil contacts so I can relate.
M’k. Probably too many years, but what the hell, the next 4 or 5 are all that matters anyway. This is gonna be quite the lineup.
THANKYOU DAVE DOMBROWSKI!!! Man this is great. Sucks we’re gonna have to wait til mid-June or so to have this lineup at full force when Harper returns.
The NL easy isn’t playing and as a mets fan this is so good for the phillies. They strengthened their defense and have just built a powerhouse offense thats stacked.
Head to head we cremated them last year, but thats a scary lineup there for the long run
Let’s see what the braves do now. They have to.
Paying premium dollars to a guy who derives much of his value from his legs until he’s 40…what could go wrong?
You move him to third. Great signing by the national league champions as they lock and load. Not finished yet, the national league champions will also be adding a top line starting pitcher and several bullpen arms.
I wasn’t talking about his defense. Enjoy the ride while it lasts. Just prepare yourself for the day he and Bryce fall off the cliff. It won’t be a soft landing for either one.
Better hope MLB turns a blind eye to PED’s again, otherwise these two guys will be 35+ year old very expensive replacement level players who struggle to remain healthy.
Now not having Bryce won’t hurt as much and when they get him back… oh boy. Good stuff Phillies.
This contract will not age well….
This feels like the Ellsbury/NYY deal.
So in other words, as well as milk, because that stuff gets freaking awful when it ages, it’s nice when fresh, though.
Might seem too long and maybe high but I still think that there’s better value at that price than spending $50 mil a year for an often injured pitcher who can’t help you 80% of the time.
They are both nutty contracts actually.
Trea I feel was the best fit to be Phillies SS but for contract I’d say that’s a slight overpay.
Does Correa get more or less money/years?
Carlos Correa is 15 months younger than Trea Turner. He also doesn’t rely on his legs as much, especially in regards to stealing bases. That ought to set up Correa for a bit longer contract in terms of length. The fact that one less SS is off the board should also play into Correa’s favor. The Aaron Judge decision could also impact Correa’s price, particularly if the Giants lose out to the Yankees in the bidding.
More money over 10-12 years. He is a year younger than Turner and his game will age better.
His game will not age better. Normally I’d agree, but Correa is made of glass
Correa’s game will age better without a doubt, your argument is that his body won’t. I’m not sure I buy that either. I don’t think any of his injuries are chronic,
His body is chronically injured. Thats the point man lol. This dude is Troy Tulo 2.0, but with character issues and less talent
Tulo had a solid career, but it’s still disappointing he was done in by injuries; he was a fun player to watch.
The difference in career average games played per season between the 4 SS available in FA is 20 games with Boegarts playing the most at 126 games per season and Turner bringing up the rear at 106 games per season.
None of these guys is a Cal Ripken.
Even with time missed, Correa leads the pack by a large margin in WAR, WAR/season and WAR/162 games.
Now the question is, where will Jean Segura go?
To Oakland?
I wish
Another Harper-style deal that will be on the books after DD is gone. Interesting contrasts. The Mets go short term with a high AAV, the Phillies long term with lower AAV’s.
Completely different situations however. The Mutts have CohenBank and can outspend almost anyone in a given year. Phils are big market, but with a lower threshold. Middleton needs to make up for the Klentak era by overspending in the interim to build the core, while they repair the farm system. By 2025 they hope to be under the tax threshold as more contracts come off the books, while still having a very viable core and then the youngsters should be filtering in. The lower AAV for Harper and Trea right now really helps them.
@Carver, I don’t disagree. I made an observation without passing judgement. Perhaps both approaches work.
Or neither.
Harper deal was a bargain. It will pay for itself well before it expires.
Raising the asking price for X and Correa
Woof.
Could you imagine if the Phillies signed Ryan Howard to an 11 year deal? Almost every long term contract never works out. Good for the Phillies today, but it’s going to be bad when Harper and Turner get into their mid/late 30s.
Harper so far has provided so much production and sold so many tickets he would need to fall off drastically the next few years to be a negative contract.
So does that mean it’s a bad deal?
DD and his win now at all costs. Give the Phillies 2 to 3 years of contending, then bottom feeding for 6 or 7 years.
If they win a World Series it’s all worth it. Big if, but thats what you sign up for in a deal like this.
Correa seeking 12 years 400 mil
He can seek whatever. He could end up being the best bargain if he is the last one to sign and teams worry about what clubhouse and fans think of him.
Not with Boras as his agent.
11 years is too much. Guy could start declining in a year or two. We’ve seen it happen with shortstop time and time again. Enjoy the first two years but I honestly believe this will be a bad deal in the end.
Imagine paying $30m to a 40 year old Trea Turner.
They better win a title or two soon.
Exactly. I’m looking at 40 years old. Some guys decline mid thirties, especially a rigorous position like shortstop. But he could be fine, just hard to tell.
Mets made a good decision signing age for a few years.
40 is irrelevant. Needs to be elite until 33. Good until 36. If that happens it won’t be a awful contract. Risky but they aren’t worried about his final 2 or 3 seasons.
If you believe paying 30 million for 2 years of nothing, then good for you. I think that’s stupid
I don’t think it’s a good contract. They had a need and paid what it cost. Some teams will knowingly overpay to win. They aren’t paying for his final years. Hopefully he is decent enough to be slightly below average big name starter who was part of their championship team and fans adore. Maybe he is so awful they just pay him to sit at home. His final seasons won’t be worth 27 million but neither are his next 3 or 4. If he signed a 1 2 3 4 year contract he would get more than 27 million.
@pwndroia 27, not 30. And I’m sure the contract is structured in such a way that it’s more upfront and less at the end. It’s not as bad as people are making it out to be.
Of course it’s going to be a bad deal in the end – you underpay up front, overpay at the back. He likely won’t be on the roster at that point anyway – they’re just spreading his total commitment out over extra years.
Yours truly 2 for 2 today, called JV and TT. Tooting my own horn, might be the only 2 I get right.
If you aren’t willing to overpay you will never land a premier FA. Full stop. Two $300M Ks for the Phils. Nice. Meanwhile Nutting won’t extend market rate for Bryan Reynolds. While Hahn and Reinsdorf are digging through the couch cushions hoping to come up with enough coin to sign the likes of Michael Conforto etc…
I mean, both the Phillies and the Pirates aren’t winning World Series with their philosophy so Nutting is kinda the smart one.
They are the NL champions ? How can you say they won’t be back lol
because it took a lot of luck to even get them there?
Congrats to Trea for his big payday. For Nats fans, this truly sucks for us, tho. Every visit from the Phillies will be a damning indictment of our ownership and front office
He won’t be visiting as much.
So, a Met Phan said this won’t age well..Hummm…the same team signing a 40 year old pitcher to a 3 year deal. BTW, I would have been happy if the Phils got Verlander..
Let’s see Dave sign a Rondon to a deal or, maybe Jameson Taillon…Why not?
Cheap AAV, really long deal
Gonna guess this contract won’t age well. Then again, if worldly events go as the naysayers tell us, then the world will end before his contract does.
It’s fun seeing the NL East get loaded up. 2023 is gonna be a blast.
Well I think just about everyone saw this move happening, but it’s still satisfying to have all of my big fish predictions be correct so far
I hope his legs hold up through to age 39 & 40, like Rickey.
And to think he turned down the Cubs offer of 350M over 350 years.
For those worried about paying him at 40 years old – think of the extra years as basically token years. The dollar value is manageable, and the likelihood of him still being on the roster at the end of the contract are slim. It’s basically a deferred payment plan – get 7 or 8 years out of him, pay him over 11 and bring down the AAV.
I don’t like this deal. If I am going to pay it’s going to be for power. They are coming off a world series appearance so he isn’t going to significantly boost ticket sales like if the Giants signed Judge.
They needed a bat. Best spot was at ss. I see why they did it. Good for them being in win now mode.
They already paid for power. You forget who bats 2-5
Didn’t forget. Just don’t care.
Not sure I’d sign a 30 year old speed guy to an 11 year deal, but…
I appreciate the Phillies efforts, but this contract is what I would consider to be… nuts
11 years? Jeez. This is really getting absurd.
Especially considering the man is already 30 years old!
Smiles all around in Aaron Judge’s camp.
Judge is like, “Maybe I can get 20 years?”
Judge is probably thinking more like 15 but I think Correa has 20yrs as a baseline in his mind now though.
Correa is like, “I’m not signing for a penny less than 42 years at $1B.”
And he would still want opt outs after every year.
The phillies are definitely relevant now, unreal signing.
whats going to happen to the beloved bryson stott?
Who?
2b
That is a ridiculous amount of years at his age!
I mean I wanted the Cubs to sign him but not that many years!
Good Luck Phillies but that contract will be a negative value in five years!
If I’m the CWS I’m thinking a Tim Anderson trade value just went up drastically since he’s signed at 2 years $26M right now.
This is why DD is a terrible GM. He gives out these stupid contracts that bury team payroll. I know Philly fans will get excited in the short term but you better hope they win a world series. In a few years you will have no farm system and no payroll space with contracts that can’t be moved. Any GM that gives out an 11 year deal should be fired.
I like it. Not my money. They got a SS finally.
I would be interested in them maybe dealing for Josh Donaldson. If the Yankees truly do want to dump him and eat 15M of the 25M he’s owed. Give up a middling prospect or two. DRS 8 vs -17 for Bohm. And its just a 1 year deal.
Thinking of the players on the 2019 Nats and what the total career earnings will be for some of them once their career is over.
Strasburg, Trea Turner, Scherzer, Corbin, Soto, Rendon…No wonder they won the WS that year they were loaded!!!
Is Hoskins that bad at 1b? with the DH spot opening up I would think they would give most of the reps to Schwarber and Castellanos, who are very bad in the outfield
Eleven years from now, baseball will be virtual and Trea Turner will be laughing.
Here’s a quote from Jim Salisbury that really puts things into perspective:
“The AAV of Turner’s deal is less than the amount that came off the Phillies’ payroll just in the form of Jean Segura and Didi Gregorius. The Phils still have plenty of money to spend this offseason as they look to fill holes on the pitching staff.”
Trae will be cruising around the bases on a mobility scooter about halfway through his contract.
He can borrow the Phanatic’s ATV.
Well he just raised Judge’s asking if he can get that.
The GLBT community will undoubtedly celebrate this overdue move.
Good player but I question paying a speed guy into his 40’s.
Congratulations to Phils phans on this inceedible pickup. The NL BEAst rocks!!
So they’ll be paying Turner when he is 40?
Yes, but he’ll likely not even be playing. Consider it deferred money. 27 a year is a bargain upfront. Phillies believe that bargain is enough to offset the loss in the later years. That’s obviously debatable, but I like that the Phillies are able to sign top end talent and still have plenty of flexibility to add more. They aren’t even at what they were spending last year yet. Plenty of room to add some quality SP.
the Phillies are going to be the worst dancing team in the league….
i like arguing about contact terms as much as anyone but it still amazes me how much the modern baseball fan worries about other peoples’ (billionaires) money.
It amazes me that so many people fail to recognize that teams have budgets. No one cares about the owners money, they care because they know there is a finite amount of $ to spend improving the team.
life is short. i’m advising certain fans to take 5 minutes to celebrate their team having a better chance to win the WS the next season instead of immediately going to “how will this contract look in 2031?”
Except the fans are the ones that will indirectly pay for these big money contracts as ticket and concession stand prices rise.
The Phillies now have a legitimate lead off hitter (even though MLB.com has him batting second) .
Schwarber was never really a leadoff hitter. Turner can fill the void while Harper heals . I think Castellanos will rebound so this lineup will be deadly. Now we need another starter and a couple of relievers.
Great signing by the Phillies. Great offensive player that is a huge step up on defense at SS for them as well. Even when he eventually has to move to 2B, he will still be one of the best at that position.
The 11 years makes that AAV just $27 million instead of the $33.5 million that was predicted on this website. The Phillies now have two superstars for the foreseeable future at about $50 million total AAV. Wish the Padres had done that with Machado. Would have left more room in the budget now to sign Soto to an extension.
Hope the Padres see the Phillies in the playoffs again this coming season.
What an incredible signing
11 years? Dang. Dombro goes all in for the WS which is great. Then a few years down the line it becomes not so great, when he doesn’t look back at the explosion as he leaves.
These contracts are getting more and more ridiculous. Did no one learn from the Angels/Pujols fiasco?
Pardon my French but that’s just effing stupid.
Really ?
Pardon my French but that’s just stupid.
Really ?
Even though I think the end of the contract will be horribly upside down. Have to respect a team that goes out and spends and actually tries to get better.
The National East could end up being the toughest division in baseball next year with Atlanta core locked up and New York and Philadelphia spending money. If the Marlins could get any offense with their pitching they could be a wild card contender.
They will regret it big time.
Hopefully the Phil’s win it all next year and make this worth it, because this will not age well
Look at his swing and miss rate and it’s uptick over the last 4 years…..guys don’t miss less bats as they get older. Warning signs were there. This one gonna be ugly by the end, but so was Howard’s, plus, plus, plus…..so long as they win one I guess
DD gave Price the contract noone (NOONE) was going to give and they got one, so ask yourself, it’s not my money and is $300m on a red flag player worth a championship? And then ask what if they don’t win……I hope he has an Ironman suit that repels batteries being thrown at him.
When he signed that contract with the Red Sox, Price was coming off a 3 year stretch that put him near the top of the heap of starters. He was top 10 in ERA, ERA+, WAR, IP, K/9, BB/9, WHIP, FIP, and xFIP. Top 3-7 in most. He was one of the top 2 FA starters on the market that year. Greinke being the other one.
So what were the best starters being paid in 2014-2016? Greinke got $32.5 million AAV. Price got $31 million. Scherzer had signed for $30 million AAV the year before and Kershaw had received a $30.7 million AAV deal 2 years earlier.
Says pretty clearly that if the Red Sox had not signed him, someone else would have for very similar money. Out of the 5 teams rumored to be in the running to sign him, Price chose to sign with the team that offered him a good contract and had the best chance of making the playoffs and they did in 2016, 2017, and in the WS winning 2018.
Emotionally what happened after he signed was rough for Red Sox fans, but his contract was what the market for top starters was paying at the time and he was one of the best starters. You can’t logically fault Dombrowski for signing that deal.
Eleven? Nothing is more Stranger Things than that.
27 Mil AAV is great considering what they will get on the front end of this deal. He apparently wanted more AAV, but settled for the years. As someone said earlier, you get the value up front. He will be an elite offensive producer for the next 3-4 seasons. The steals will be around 20-30 in that lineup I would imagine. He is playing with a close friend in Harper and his old hitting coach- which is why he took a discount from what other teams offered him.. plus wife from NJ and it being an east coast team.
As far as aging is concerned, look at what he did in LA with his 2 strike approach. As his power fades and he begins to swing and miss a bit more he will adopt this 2 stroke approach (no leg kick/throw the hands/drive the ball to RC) as his every AB approach. I could see him hitting .300 well into this contract. I predict he moves to 2B or OF within 2 yrs and maintains a slash line close to .300, .370, .480 for at least 5 yrs into this deal. Bargain deal for an athlete of this caliber.
Phillies jumped the market and got a steal – Who knew!
Trea in the 2nd half of 2022: .287/.329/.433 + an awful postseason. I think I might have 2-3 more elite seasons left, but that line is probably what he’ll be for the rest of the contract. Still a good average, but with bad plate discipline and moderate power.
Enjoy this part of the Dombrowski tenure, Phillies fans. Should be a fun ride until it isn’t.