3:55pm: The deal can max out at $27MM over the two years, reports Chris Cotillo of MassLive. In 2023, Kluber will get an extra $500K for starting 20 games, then $750K for getting to 25 and 30 starts. Those same figures will also be added to the value of the $11MM option, meaning it will escalate up to $11.5MM at 20 starts, $12.25MM at 25 and $13MM at 30. If the option is picked up, those same bonuses would be available to Kluber for 2024.
12:50pm: The Red Sox and right-hander Corey Kluber are in agreement on a one-year deal plus a club option for 2024. Kluber will be guaranteed $10MM on the deal, though there’s also $2MM in unknown incentives that could increase the eventual payday for the Wasserman client. The 2024 option is valued at $11MM, though with escalators and incentives for that season as well.
Kluber, 37 in April, was once one of the best pitchers alive, winning Cy Young awards in both 2014 and 2017. Those were part of a six-year run of excellence with Cleveland from 2013 to 2018, with Kluber posting a 2.96 ERA over that time along with a 27.7% strikeout rate, 5.2% walk rate and 44.9% ground ball rate.
Injuries limited him to just eight total starts over 2019 and 2020, with a forearm fracture and teres muscle tear the primary culprits. He’s since been ramping back up, but as more of a back-end hurler instead of the ace he was with Cleveland, signing one-year deals with the Yankees and Rays for the past two seasons. He made 16 starts in 2021 with a 3.83 ERA and 31 starts in 2022 with a 4.34 ERA. His 34.7% strikeout rate in 2017 was down to 24% last year and 20.2% in 2022. He did still avoid the free passes, something he’s long excelled at, with his 3% walk rate this year coming in a few ticks below his career 5.4% mark.
Statcast pegged Kluber’s average four-seam fastball velocity at 88.9 mph in 2022, a significant drop from prior to the injuries, when he was in the 93-95 range. Nonetheless, he still found ways to generally be effective, as his average exit velocity was in the 80th percentile, his hard hit rate in the 75th and his barrel rate 57th. Given his age and checkered health history, MLBTR predicted him for a one-year, $12MM deal, with Kluber coming in just under that, though the incentives could potentially make up the difference.
For the Sox, adding another starting pitcher makes a lot of sense given the uncertainty with their current options. Nick Pivetta is probably the only solid member of their group right now, as Chris Sale and James Paxton have hardly pitched in the past three years. Brayan Bello and Garrett Whitlock are penciled into two spots, though they are young and only have 20 MLB starts between them. Kluber is a bit of a question mark himself, but adding him into the picture still reduces the likelihood that the club will have to rely upon depth options like Connor Seabold or Josh Winckowski throughout the year.
Boston had also been connected to various other starters throughout the offseason, including Zach Eflin, Carlos Rodón, Kodai Senga, Andrew Heaney, Seth Lugo, Tyler Anderson, Rich Hill and Nathan Eovaldi. Those players have all since found new clubs, with Eovaldi signing a two-year deal with the Rangers yesterday. Chad Jennings of the Athletic reports that the Red Sox offered Eovaldi a three-year deal earlier this month, though the guarantee on that offer isn’t known. Regardless, it seems that Eovaldi spurned it in favor of the offer from Texas and Boston then pivoted to Kluber.
Kluber had previously been connected to the Angels and Cubs, though the latter’s interest was prior to signing Jameson Taillon and Drew Smyly. If the Angels are still looking for rotation upgrades, some of the remaining free agents include Michael Wacha, Johnny Cueto and Zack Greinke.
This deal brings the Red Sox payroll up to $186MM and their competitive balance tax figure to $212MM, per the calculations of Roster Resource. That should leave them room for further additions if they so choose, as they’ve run a payroll as high as $236MM in the past, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, and they’re still more than $20MM shy of the $233MM luxury tax threshold.
Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported that Kluber and the Red Sox were in agreement on a one-year deal plus a club option. Alex Speier of the Boston Globe first reported the $10MM guarantee and later provided some details on the incentives. Jon Heyman of The New York Post first reported the $11MM figure for the option and that the deal contained incentives.
Image courtesy USA Today Sports.
Wow
Kluber is a guy I wanted, better than Hill. I approve.
And I knew the “Sox view their rotation as an area of depth” line was a bunch of BS. Heheheh
The Guardians excruciatingly missed as 1st runners up in signing Kluber for their 5th starter. They’ll now pivot to Dylan Bundy.
OIC – This is for all my fellow Married With Children fans:
WOOOOOOOOAH BUNDY !!
No Ma’am
Padres were also in on him but never formally made an offer. /s
Fever, I’d rather have re-signed Eovaldi even considering the guarantee difference in money.
This or Wacha.
dewey – I would too, but perhaps it was Nate’s medicals that was the reason Bloom didn’t bring him back. Time will tell.
Dickle – Seems like the jury is out, most of MLB believes this year was a fluke for Wacha. Otherwise he’d be signed by now.
For the record Fever, I agree with you on this one. Wanted to make sure this was in bold print.
pedey – Nice to see!
Makes zero sense just bring back Eovaldi if your the Red Sox, who’s much better then Kluber at this point. Smh.
Agree fully Capt’n.
Rather would have the draft pick + 1 year of Kluber than 2 of Eovaldi.
Yeah but Eovaldi wouldn’t have cost the Red Sox any draft compensation, and is so much better then Kluber at this point. Eovaldi will definitely help the Rangers a lot more then Kluber will help the Red Sox. Another bad move, Boston! Smh
Eovaldi would’ve cost the Red Sox draft pick compensation, in that they wouldn’t get the compensation if they re-signed him. Bad Take CJ99.
Correct me if I’m wrong but the draft pick comps drop because the Sox were over the tax last year. Which is not nothing but after the 4th round I believe.
You are correct.
Now correct me if I’m wrong, I was responding to CaptainJudge, so that draft pick would make CJ’s comment “Eovaldi wouldn’t have cost the Red Sox any draft compensation” incorrect.
True.
At the same time, it would make my original point, which would be 2 years of Eovaldi at 17m/yr, vs 1 year of Kluber at 10m + club option + draft pick, much less appealing.
Given the 4th rounder rather than the 2nd/3rd, I would still go with Kluber.
In terms of value it would be almost a wash, though.
I’d say having more options and having flexibility would be more appealing.
I thought you were talking about the 4th pick, no indication you weren’t.
willy i was asking if the Sox had to give up a pick to Tampa for signing Kluber? If so when would it be. Anyone is welcome to answer this for me.
No compensation for Kluber.
mlbtraderumors.com/2022/11/14-players-receive-qual…
thanks for the info. Isn’t that Chaim Bloom brilliant? Gets an extra pick for Eovaldi and doesn’t give up a pick for Kluber. Keeps stacking that farm system with B grade prospects Chaim and don’t remind anyone that you paid 2 million more for a yr older Kluber than TB did last yr.
Bloom has done an okay, but not great, job.
Bloom’s moves are all extremely cost-efficient and intelligent. He understands the game and the market very well.
However, Bloom’s huge hole is identifying and executing on talent at the top of the market. The best players will always be overpaid by a bit, and I think Bloom stuck to that rule too much with Mookie and Xander. Public discourse obviously supports this.
This move, given the current state of the market, is fine as well. $10m for Kluber is a decent sum.
I personally think that resigning Betts would have been possible at a 9/270 or 10/280 rate. Bogaerts probably wanted too much, and that deal is almost certainly going to be a bum one in 5-6 years.
If Bloom is going to leave a legacy, however, he’s going to have to sign a Judge, trade for Ohtani, or some other otherworldly player out there and be okay with spending a little more than necessary.
Here is the bottom line on bloom. He inherited a very good nucleus left by DD even if there were some bad contracts yet the Sox have finished LAST in the AL East in 2 of his 3 seasons and I will be very surprised if the Sox are not last again in 2023 although the O’s haven’t done much this offseason yet either.
He lost terribly on the Mookie trade especially when he insisted on replacing Graterol with the immortal Jeter Downs.. He then let JDM, XB, Eovialdi and others walk for only draft picks AFTER the 4th round.rather than pick up assets via trade at the deadline. He WAY OVERSPENDS on guys on 1-2 yr deals as he is insistent on building HIS Red Sox team.
I am going to stop here because it is too depressing to continue as Bloom is implementing HIS moneyball version under the ORDERS of John Henry. I can not stand the direction of the Red Sox and will not support them again until Henry sells the team and Bloom is gassed. I have been a LIFETIME fan of the Red Sox but no more until those changes occur.
The Red Sox as a franchise would have benefitted far more financially going for it this year rather than get a bunch of 40-45 prospects at this year’s trade deadline.
Additionally, when did Bloom insist on getting Jeter Downs instead of Graterol?
Otherwise, I do not disagree. The results have not been there.
I think his thought process and efficient use of filling holes on his teams has been fine. In an ever-changing game, flexibility is extremely important. Would I rather have seen him allocate $40m/yr to Judge rather than Turner, Jansen, and Hernandez? Of course. Does that make these deals bad in a vacuum? Absolutely not.
The real issue is the team needs to identify core players, lock em up, and build around them. The only real “core” players are Story and an unproven Japanese player. If they continue to keep on operating in the middle of the market, they will continue to be in the middle of the market.
I’m a lifetime fan as well. I want to see them do great. Their strategy needs to be clearer. However, that does not mean these deals by itself have been subpar.
“Bloom inherits a very good nucleus”
Are you kidding, DD inherited a good nucleus, Bloom inherited the same group right before they needed to get paid. And a few that DD added that were very bad.
DD added no nucleus and no prospects to the group.
Red Sox are trying to build a core, but there is such a void of talent in their farm system. DD added few players through the draft, and zero through trade. That void should be filled in another year. That 2018 ‘All-or Nothing’ mentality paid off, but its is 100% the reason they are still working to rebuild an in-house team.
danyekim–the first Mookie trade had Graterol in it but Bloom did not like the medicals on Graterol so he had the deal re-done to include Downs instead,
I agree that the Sox need to lock up their core players especially their homegrown guys but this not how they did it in Tampa where they continually dealt their top players for prospects and Bloom has brought this same Moneyball approach [ under Henry’s orders] to Boston.
rsmith that looks good in theory but other than Mayer who fell into Bloom’s lap what real top end prospect has Bloom added to the farm system in his 3+ yrs t the helm? Yeah he has added guys like Seabold, Winkowski, Wong, Downs, etc but the best prospects are still guys that DD brought in. All this talk about Bloom adding to the farm is hogwash.
As long as they continue to invest in their player development and get the proper training for Mayer, Casas, and Bello, I think there’s a bright future ahead for the Sox.
I suppose whether that’s “under Henry’s orders” or not is yet to be seen in the long term. As is how it goes – obviously the GM reports to the owner. But he’s been a big part of each championship thus far and he will continue to be.
On a micro level, if we can procure one solid pitcher, whether it be Fried from the Braves or Bello takes a huge step forward, they would be in much healthier shape.
Makes me wish they had signed either deGrom or Verlander, though knowing Bloom that was not going to happen. Until then, this group of above-average players possibly gelling and getting into the playoffs and catching a lucky break is our best case scenario.
If they hadn’t re-signed Pearce, Eovaldi and extended Sale – all huge overpays, hindsight or not – yes they definitely would not be in this position right now.
I do believe that the Sox would have tried to be in contention every year since then regardless, and not ended up with the draft picks they should have gotten.
They tried too hard to pay off their loyalty it bit them back in the face. Of course, this is what got DD fired, so if he hadn’t done that, in that timeline maybe we’d see him still be the GM of the Sox.
Say what you want. Its been said SOOO many times on this website. DD inherited a Top 5 Farm System, When he left it was Dead Last, as in 30 out of 30.
Currently the Farm System ranks at #9 per Fangraph. Prospects include Marcello Mayer, Blaze Jordan, Nick Yorke, Nathan Hickey, Mikey Romeo, Roman Anthony.
30th to 9th in 3 years is impressive.
Now, you’ll just gas-light and deny any of that is true. Ill show proof, and you’ll never respond directly to it again.
Sox system is not great. When looking at rankings like these, most of the time anywhere from 8th to 20th are a wash – very little difference between the teams.
Other than Mayer and Casas, the Sox don’t have any players projected to be a major league regular.
Whether or not Bloom has been a great developer or he’s hired great minor league trainers that’s not up for me to decide. The fact of the matter is the Red Sox farm system is not very strong.
In a couple of years they should be able to replenish quickly if that’s where the focus is. Given the market they are in, they’re always in win-now mode, so I doubt that would be they put their resources into.
That being said, that’s where the short-term high AAV deals come into play where they are able to, of course, keep their minor league talent.
you might be able to include Bello in that group too. note that 2 of the 3 are DD guys. Mayer fell into Bloom’s lap. It would be interesting to see he lates top 100 BA rankings to see how many of Bloom’s great additions make the list.
Bloom did add Whitlock but he may not have been considered a prospect at the time.
He did, however, cut down our payroll and has been working on us getting out of money heavy contracts that have not gone well. I’m not trying to praise Bloom, but his failures have been numerous but far less impactful than the monumental deals we previously made.
Randy Red Sox – Why do you think Money Ball is a Henry request/demand of Bloom? Do you have any documentation of it? Or is it your gut feel?
Also, I don’t believe Bloom does anything other than preach money ball concepts. His actions clearly don’t carefully evaluate cost versus value of players he brings to the Red Sox.
He’s got a gambler’s version of money ball. He brings upside (with low probability) and pays a premium for it in hopes of being right. It’s like the futures market. He pays too much for the futures and is seldom right. To me that’s not really money ball. That’s just bad decision making.
Bloom doesn’t really pay all that much though, he’s brought our payroll way down.
it is not down near as low as it should be given he has let XB, JDM, Eovaldi etc walk away for nothing. He has overpaid for guys like Yoshida, Janssen, Kluber, etc.
Henry nev er speaks so it is hard to say for certain that he has ordered Bloom to follow this approach. I certainly agree with you his decision making is bad. I was on a nice Red Sox fan forum and ended up being banned because I stated my views on the direction Bloom was taking. That was 2 months ago. I wonder if some of them are believing my views now.
I overall like many of the moves the Red Sox made this offseason. I could buy their moves in aggregate with one exception. The loss of Xander. If they held him, I’d give them good grades for their offseason.
Yeah they should of just signed Xander last season when he would of been a whole lot cheaper. Nobody expected him to sign for $280 million for 11 years.
Captain – That’s a bad take, everybody knew Xander’s price tag would go way up before LAST season’s free agent shortstops got their mega-deals.
Then he had the great season, challenging for both the batting crown and Gold Glove.
One thing you’ll learn in life, it’s harder to get what you want when there’s competition. Allowing a great player to hit free agency will ALWAYS cost you more.
Hey! “Wow” is the new “First” of the 20s.
And wow spelled backwards is wow.
Cow – And more appropriately for him, “wow” upside down spells “Mom”.
Wow is what you say when you can’t think of anything good to say about a signing without saying only if he pitches like he did 5 years ago.
ARC – Pretty sure the “wow” is just an excuse to get first post under every article, without actually having anything to say about the article.
They never say anything else after that.
That is very sad if posting the first comment is a big moment in your life.
he pitched well for the Yankees in the month of May before the train derailed following the no hitter.
even in 1995 I didn’t understand first post, let alone now.
2 thumbs up for wow?
Ok, one from the poster, who’s the other idiot?
It’s now up to 3, we now have 2 idiots…
Actually, a good signing. Kluber’s 2022 stats were parallel to Charlie Morton’s. Kluber got $10 MM, Morton $20 MM.
Curly, why look at comparables? the game is won on the field, not in a computer. Suppose one pitches horrie but finds his grove in September vs the other who is on the IL because he was overused. Comparing just stats will not give an accurate picture.
@dewey, “horrie but finds his grove” – that alone gives you no credibility…
Even sadder caring about it.
@Curly, ERA and WHIP were similar. Morton walked 3 times as many batters and much higher k/9. Which tells you just how many more hits Kluber gave up. If I’m choosing between the 2 I’d take Morton all day as batters are hitting the ball much more often of Kluber. I do agree tho that the extra $10 MM is quite a bit. But for a team such as BOS who really not making a push to contend, Kluber is a nice pick up to give the team alot of serviceable innings pitched.
I’d have to disagree. Kluber’s command is still top-notch, and the deal gives the Sox more options for year 2.
Club option plus the draft pick for .5-1 win less? Makes much more sense if you’re the Red Sox.
The smartest play would have been Eovaldi accepting the QO. That would have been the most bang for his buck.
I’ll say this generally: being a fan it is difficult to understand the value of a comp pick. In most years this player should turn out to be at the very least a low level regular which you have control for 6 years.
Good or bad? Not sure. Cost-efficient and future-looking? 100%. Smart move for the Red Sox.
Like I said this is a good pick for a team such as BOS. For a contending team tho u don’t spend $200M+ and worry about a comp pick. U take the hit and u get the better pitcher in Morton.
Club option plus the draft pick for .5-1 win less? Makes much more sense if you’re the Red Sox.
==============================
Spot on correct, imo. On projected WAR, maybe the $17M v $10M might be reasonable. But with us having an option year if Kluber does well, and Nate being locked in for a 2nd, really makes Kluber look like the better deal.
My life is so sad that I’m depressed cause I’m never first
I used to be credible, but then I backed FTX like Tom Brady and MLB baseball
ARC- True, but I think sometimes we need to remember there are some very young posters here. If for instance he’s a 13-year-old, it probably is kinda a big moment in context.
Jope – I can’t even remember messageboards that far back. All I remember is AOL chatrooms, probably around 1996?
Curly – Maybe he’s talking about finding an orange grove?
just don’t buy any Red Sox jerseys with names on the back. Bloom never signs guys to more than a year or 2. Constant revolving door. Guy is a joke.
“never”
How long is Trevor Story’s contract?
Upside down its “MoM”.
Well, this doesn’t make up for Eovaldi leaving. Basically, resigned Rich Hill.
In 2022 Eovaldi pitched 109.1 innings. Hill pitched 124.1 innings. Kluber pitched 164 innings. Which would you rather have?
Eovaldi
suit – I’d rather have last year’s Eovaldi … the guy who led the league in starts, finished 4th in Cy voting, shut down the Yanks in the WC Game, and got MVP votes.
But like I said, Kluber is a better option than Hill.
Eovaldi- 109 innings – 21 HRs – 1.73 HRs/9 innings is bad – imo 16,000,000 is an over pay for a guy who will miss 10-15 starts.
Therein lies the problem, with this and about half the league signings. If TX gets the 2021 Eovaldi, it’s a great signing. If they get the 2019 or 2022 Eovaldi, they will be disappointed.
Fever: You are speaking of his 2021 season. In 2022 Eovaldi only managed to pitch 109.1 innings in 20 starts.
Also Eovaldi will be starting his 2023 season early. He will be fully ramped up in March pitching in the World Baseball Classic. I think that will have a bad effect on his 2023 season.
Problem is you’re not getting the 2021 Eovaldi again most likely. So you can dream or you can live in reality.
suit – I totally agree!!
Joe – Finally something I can agree with!! Yes, 2019 and 2022 were disappointing.
But one disappointing year after every two great ones is probably the most you can hope for these days.
suit – The WBC could have a bad effect, I wouldn’t say definitively it will.
I know it did with Dice, but has Nate ever pitched in the WBC before?
king – If every MLB team gave up on pitchers after just one injury-affected season, you would have a major shortage of pitchers in MLB.
How many pitchers have had an injury-effected season and come back strong? I’d say a lot more than not.
Nate had a horrible 5.99 ERA season in 2019, then he had two fantastic seasons right after. Good thing you didn’t take over for Dombrowski.
Fever: I don’t think he has pitched in the WBC before. I can’t imagine Eovaldi not being on the IL this year and the WBC will only use up pitches in his arm.
Boston is on skidrow, they don’t care
Hippy – You remind me of Bill Lee ;O)
AARP – New Official Sponsor of the Boston Red Sox.
Now we know why the Hancock sign came down.
Clorey Kluber is gonna give Edwin Jackson’s ‘teams played for‘ record a run for its money.
Not even close. The Sox will only be Kluber’s 5th MLB team once he throws an official pitch for them. Kluber is frankly too old to come close to even sniffing Jackson’s record. Rich Hill on the other hand legitimately has a chance as the Pirates will be his 12th team and he’s almost guaranteed to be traded at the trade deadline if he’s healthy and productive
Agreed regarding Rich Hill, but let’s have some faith in Kluber’s ability to pitch 5 more years (with five potential deadline trades). Enjoy!
Dude is 37… yeah right
We can dream, can’t we?
The roster is not looking very good. I still think Segura is a good fit for them and he is still out there though.
Segura is not a SS at this point in his career. They value Story at 2B and probably won’t move off that. Iglesias is probably a better fit.
Oh ok. I was thinking Story would shift to SS in that scenario.
Angel – Why would Bloom give Story that $140M shortstop contract to play shortstop, when he can play a less demanding and less valuable 2B position for the same money? Jajajaja!
Story is going to be the Red Sox shortstop in 2023.
bloom – Is that why Story was named next year’s shortstop after Xander signed with the Padres?
Oh, wait a minute ….
That would be because Bloom lied last year and they have no choice but to play Story at SS if the season started today.
If the season started today Keke would be at SS and Duran or Rafaela would be in CF. There are too many concerns over Story’s surgically repaired elbow that the Sox don’t want to risk losing Story’s bat over
Pads – If Story’s arm is bad enough that one throw from the hole could end his season, I don’t think Bloom will take that risk.
Whether Bloom would be willing to have one of the weakest-armed shortstops in MLB, that is another subject. With the pitching staff they are projected to have, a strong infield defense will be needed.
Has Bloom ever addressed any of that? The dude says almost nothing, like he should. IIRC, last year he said Story was going to be the 2B all year, but since Bogaerts was the SS, that wasn’t exactly a revelation.
Did Bloom ever say what position Story would play in 2023? My assumption is no, since that would reflect on Bogaerts.
And last I heard, the FO was undecided. Which again makes sense since they won’t want to divulge any secrets.
Why would Bloom have said anything about this last year? It was obvious to anyone with a clue exactly why Story was signed, with a sizable part of the signing being him as a backup plan if Bogaerts opted out and could not be retained. But while Bogaerts was still here there was no benefit in stating that outright and a lot of downside to doing so. Fans faulting Bloom for not doing something stupid that would have served only to piss off Bogaerts makes no sense.
My point exactly. For all the talk about what Bloom said or didn’t say, I doubt he said anything. I don’t remember him saying anything, and it wouldn’t make sense to say anything.
Even now, they aren’t saying anything. And why would they? If they said he is moving to SS, Segura;s price goes up. If they say he is staying at 2nd, the cost to acquire Rosario, Mateo, Kim, etc., goes up.
Duran needs a fresh start elsewhere. He is not an outfielder for Fenway. Perhaps the worst I’ve seen in a long time.
Bring back Rico Petrocelli for short. The 1967 Sox with no expectations. Devers is the 23 Yaz. Triple crown from Devers for his walk year. Imagine that.
Bloom said that Story was signed to play 2B. Listen to the presser. Was he lying? Like he was about retaining Bogaerts being the top priority?
Joe – Here you are claiming Bloom says literally nothing all the time, I’m assuming because you are claiming he doesn’t want to tip his hand.
So who’s the guy who publicly stated signing Xander was his “top priority”?
Game, set, match.
Joe – You missed the part where King said “last year”.
He’s not agreeing with you about Bloom not saying anything now about next year.
He’s pointing out it would be beyond idiotic for Bloom to name Story the 2023 starting shortstop prior to the 2022 season. You trying to say otherwise is completely disingenuous, or a horrible attempt to prove your “point”.
Nice attempt at deflection though. LOL
Pads – When Bloom eventually gets fired – and I’m guessing there’s a good chance he will – it will be the Story contract at the top of the list for reasons why.
Iglesias or Andrus or maybe a trade for Nick Ahmed. Sox need to do something at SS
Those are some mighty appealing options…
Or trade. Mateo, Rosario, and Kim might be available.
Bloom give up some of his vaunted prospects?? Never!
Lets assume that the Red Sox won’t want to give up Mayer. So which of Casas or Rafaela are they sending to headline a deal for the 5 WAR Kim?
The Sox are not going to acquire another shortstop. Story was signed to give them insurance at the position in the event that Bogaerts departed (which always seems to have been the intention) until Mayer developed enough to hit the big leagues. Bloom has been straightforward about his willingness to play Story at shortstop next season, with occasional cameos from Kiké Hernandez. He’s CERTAINLY not going to surrender prospect capital for one.
Also, all the people worried about Story’s arm might want to look at the velocity numbers on, say, Dansby Swanson’s throws. It’s not as big an obstacle as one might think.
His value to the Padres depends on where he plays, and if he plays. If he plays 2nd, his positional value declines. If SD signs a 1B, and Cron plays 2nd, Kim’s value declines a lot.
Either way, they aren’t trading him for a 5 WAR value.
Story will get to way more balls than Bogaerts did as his range is way better!
Had not thought about Segura for the Red Sox. Good call, Angel.
Bet Angel Hernandez does not hear that one too often!
If the Japanese guy hits at the top, the Sox arent altogether awful, Turner was a great addition.
Sale
Kluber
Pivetta
Paxton
Whitlock / Houck
Would have been better to see Rich Hill in the five hole, but good to develop the young starters.
Eovaldi
Sale
Kluber
Paxton
Pivetta
That would’ve been a better rotation IMO. I have no idea why they didn’t try to resign Eovaldi. He didn’t even get a long-term deal with the rangers. He signed with them for an extra 21 mil and one year (more than the QO). Man, this off-season is unbearable.
Lmao
Pencil Bello in there. Pedro is currently helping Bello, I look for Bello to take a big step forward.
The problem with that rotation bwmiller is this
Injuries
Injuries
Not good
Injuries
Unproven/Unproven
(Bello also unproven)
This rotation is just like last years. Hopes and dreams.
The article said that they (Red Sox) offered Eovaldi a 3-yr deal.
Brayan Bello will be in the starting rotation.
If the Japanese guy hits. Full stop.
dsett – The article also called Corey “Kulber”, so I wouldn’t make the assumption that anything written about Eovaldi is accurate.
suit – I tend to agree with you on Bello. So who do you think will be the other 4 starters, assuming all are healthy?
Sounds like both Whitlock and Houck will be in the pen again.
Sale
Kluber
Pivetta
Bello
Whitlock
Right? Am I missing anyone?
Houck
Fever: Are you hearing Whitlock to the pen? I would like that. I don’t know about everyone’s health, but I think the rotation looks like Sale, Pivetta, Bello, Kluber and Whitlock/Houck/Paxton/Crawford. I think they could still sign another starter such as Wacha.
My preference would be Sale, Pivetta, Bello, Kluber and Paxton, at least to start. That would make our BP:
Jansen
Schreiber
Barnes
Whitlock (2 inning guy)
Houck (#6 SP)
Martin
Joely
One of Brasier, Taylor or Crawford (#7 SP)
Joe – yes, you are correct.
Sale
Kluber
Pivetta
Bello
Whitlock
IF Paxton is even healthy enough to pitch, he will be in the bullpen. I highly doubt his arm would allow him to go even 5 innings. The Red Sox also have very little regarding left handed bullpen pitching.
Crawford and Winckowski will start in AAA.
Imagine counting on Sale and Paxton to give you starts in 2023. Yikes.
Paxton
Rotation is not just like last year’s. Red Sox have lots of SPs coming up from Triple A. Weird things happen when you allow young pitches to pitch at the big league level. Some get better.
The Rotation:
Kluber
Pivetta,
Crawford
Whitlock
Bello
Houck
Murphy
Mata
Seabold
Winckowski
Martin
Keller
If healthy:
Sale
Paxton
I am not saying all will get better, but I’d bet on Crawford, Whitlock, Bello, Murphy, Houck and Mata. At least 3 of these guys will make a big leap forward.
Red Sox have TONS of young SP depth. And, they only need to find 5 starters out these 14.
Red Sox have lots of young pitching depth, they are not “counting” Sale or Paxton.
rsmith: Great post. Keller is gone I believe.
@rsmith: A 12-man rotation?
Paxton
You dont understand he meant ‘best 5’ of the 12 men listed?
Segura signed with the Marlins yesterday
@williemaysfield: Thank you, Captain Obvious.
@Angel Hernandez: But they can finish last with or without Segura. He won’t move any needles.
The roster is looking better than your strike zone on average angel, lmao maybe Bryce Harper was right you need your eyes checked blue
not anymore. think Arroyo at 2B
Just Retire lol
Why? He was worth 3.0 WAR per FanGraphs this year. May not win a CY, but he’s worth a roster spot and a slot in THAT rotation.
Go home or get paid millions of dollars… Tough decision for sure.
Q – I agree, but unfortunately Bloom is too young to retire :'(
Bloom is doing a great job.
Sincerely, Yankees fans
Bloom did help eliminate the Yankees from the postseason in 2021 with Garrett Whitlock closing it out. You’re welcome.
Sox fans can say the same about Cashman
Cashman has his faults but Bloom is so bad I actually feel bad for Sox fans. The rivalry is better when both teams are playing great baseball.
Baseball is better when both of the Yankees and Red Sox are good enough to actually have a rivalry.
The Yankees have beaten out the RS in 3 of the last 7 years. I don’t think it is fair to say the Yankees aren’t good enough to be a rival.
Joe, the Sox had the same record as the Yankees in 2021 and sent them home in the playoffs. Bloom didn’t give brittle Chris Sale a 5-year extension, and the marching orders to save money didn’t come from Bloom.
It took Theo Epstein five years to turn the Cubs into World Champions. I think it’s a bit early to declare Bloom a bad CBO.
Fink, Bloom is treating the Sox like a small market team. It’s inexcusable letting XB and Betts get away. Even if Betts wasn’t going to stay in Boston, attaching Price to the deal with LA diminished the return when Boston could easily afford Price. Top level talent shouldn’t be getting away like it has and it won’t surprise me if Devers gets away too.
How is it his fault if he’s been ordered to cut salary? Why did they hire a guy from the Rays in the first place? It seems obvious that Henry wanted him to bring Tampa Bay’s methods to Boston.
Also the deal Eovoldi got from Texas was very reasonable. No reason Boston couldn’t match or exceed it.
Henry isn’t without fault for sure.
No. The Red Sox haven’t been good enough to be anyone’s rival. You have to win to do that.
Cutting salary to $240 million? No. Bloom has no edict to cut salary, he just doesn’t have a clear direction he is leading the team in except down to last place.
Joe, there’s a reason that that they brought bloom in. I’m sure he’s fulfilling his mission statement. They wanted an exec who could get by on a shoestring budget. As he did in Tampa. Unfortunately he’s not having the same results with the Red Sox. It just goes to show how much of the rays success had to do with the other part of the front office, not bloom. Their ability to develop or recruit players.
I agree with you Joe. Sometimes Cashman acts like the Yankees are a small market team as well. But bloom goes above and beyond. But after all that’s what he did with the Tampa rays. He just had more success there because they have a great recruiting and development department. Evidently it had nothing to do with Bloom himself.
Joe, if I’m being honest, I have to say I can understand why Henry would tighten his belt after Dombrowski gave that ill-conceived extension to Sale, who then had his worst season ever as a starter. Was Henry cutting off his nose to spite his face by trying to economize? Maybe. But I suppose even billionaires don’t like wasting millions.
Sure, lets talk at mid-season when Judge, Stanton and LeMahieu are on the IR list. They just need a fourth to play cards in the clubhouse.
How about in the playoffs? Red Sox have OWNED Yankees the past 20 years.
Okay, queue the obligatory, “I remember when I was a little boy and my Yankees were unbeatable” parade of the elderly. Yankee Fans new slogan “We havent been very good this century, but we are slightly above average every year!”
“Bloom is treating the Sox like a small market team”
A small market team that went over the Cap last year, and will be right up against it, this year.
There I fixed it for ya.
Red Sox have 4 WS past 20 years, Have the “Pads” EVER WON A WS. Refresh my memory.
Trash talkin Friars Fan, you guys have a 3 year window TOPS. Good luck with that.
The Red Sox do not have a shoestring budget. Player payroll for 2023 is well over $200M so far.
Fink: I think John Henry had enough of wasting money on contracts like Chris Sale’s contract. I also think he had the realization that the Rays won the AL East with less than half of what the Red Sox spend on player payroll and: What if you took a guy from the Rays and doubled his player payroll? In theory that should be very successful. I think (and hope I’m right) Bloom is trying to build a contender from the farm system or is building a strong farm system (while also avoiding long expensive contracts) before going all in on competing. It looks like Bloom has improved the farm system from bottom of the pack to middle of the pack in 3 years. So, I am guessing the Red Sox top priority is building the farm system now. I expect them to transition to win-now mode at some point. Not sure when. It might be when Marcelo Mayer comes up. I don’t mind letting Bloom do his thing. I like doing things differently and I hate long contracts that turn into dead money and wasted roster space. That’s my take.
The NFL has an IR list. Here in baseball land, it’s called the IL.
@all in the suit that you wear
That sounds to me like a credible interpretation of what’s going on.
A small market team that went over the Cap last year, and will be right up against it, this year.
=================================
Some of these people are idiots. If one wants to Eovaldi or Kluber, it’s a matter of opinion. To think the RS are a small market team defies belief.
Hey your name’s spelt wrong.
@rsmith: I am not a Yankees fan, but you set yourself up for this:
As opposed to Bill Buckner and the “anyone can have a bad century” Red Sox?
No, they’re talking about this century, in which Boston owns the most championships in baseball.
Dr – Excellent post, I totally agree!!
rsmith – The silver lining about the 2019 defending champs being dismantled by Bloom? People like you can no longer point to the team payroll and say “Look the Red Sox are spending” …. even though most of the team payroll consisted of contracts given out prior to Bloom.
suit – They currently have a projected payroll INCLUDING estimated arbitration, per-arbitration and benefits of $211M.
That’s $22M below the threshold.
And that includes $40M for two guys Bloom inherited, one of whom would have been long gone if not for the fact he’s been injured nearly all of the past three seasons.
And the Red Sox are finally looking much better to compete in the future after rebuilding farm system and slowly ridding team of bad contracts.
Time for your type to say “But he won a World Series!”. As if WS, means youre allowed to trash a team for 6 years, in order to do it.
Fever: You’ve stated facts, but not sure what your point is.
The season is saved!
New favourites in the AL East?
Skell – Yes!!! 2025 is their year, led by Mayer who could be the next Edgar Renteira.
Good times are coming!!!
Whose Renteria?
I don’t practice Renteria,
I ain’t got no crystal ball,
If I had a million dollars,
Well then, I’d spend it all!
Absolutely Sublime Gwynning!
hayzee – I figured somebody would catch that.
E-Fever, in honor of Renteria. LOL
Just as long as no one pops a cap in Sancho or slaps anyone down. We clear on that?
I dunno, I’d be OK with either happening to bloom. Somewhere non fatal of course. Something like
Pops a cap in chaim bloom, and slaps Henry dooooown.
So they didn’t re-sign the guy they had but went out and got someone else similar in that spot.
Not a Red Sox fan but what am I missing here? Always better the guy you know.
Our aversion to signing our own guys and getting nearly identical replacements is really confounding
You are missing that Kluber threw 164 innings last year while Eovaldi threw 109.1 innings. Also Kluber costs $10M per year while Eovaldi costs $17M per year. Which looks like the better signing?
Yes but you don’t get to the playoffs without Eovaldi in 21. He’s a proven commodity that’s had great success in Boston, especially in the playoffs. Kluber is way less of a sure thing
Some rebuild when you don’t even get anything for the guys you let go. Not trading JD and Nate looks so ridiculously stupid now.
maybe theyll trade JT and now Kluber in a year to try to make their fans think they actually had a plan
Also Kluber costs $10M per year while Eovaldi costs $17M per year. Which looks like the better signing?
===========================
And it is 2 years for Eovaldi, while it is one year for Kluber PLUS a team option. That’s a fairly material difference. I think Eovaldi is slightly better, but the Kluber contract is a lot better.
And the health issue as well. We aren’t deep, so it is probably better to get a slightly worse ERA, with a better chance of staying healthy, than vice versa.
JD & Nate absolutely stunk last July. Highly paid players, that can’t play, are less valuable than you think they are. In JD’s final 35 games coming into the trade deadline, he had an OPS of .564, with exactly “1” HR in 137 ABs. Eovaldi had a double-digit ERA in July and was hurt.
Do you really think teams were lining up for these guys?
all in the suit- The Eovaldi one.
‘Not trading JD and Nate looks so ridiculously stupid now.’
Um, Bloom’s in charge what did you expect?
Eovaldi and his 3.87 ERA.
Plus over the last 2 seasons Eovaldi had a 3.80 ERA in 291 IP to Kluber’s 4.17 ERA in 244 IP.
pohle – Trading some of the relievers would also be a possibility, as they are always in demand at trade deadlines.
Joe – Do you read any actual baseball articles during the season, or is it all stats and Fangraphs for you?
Google “Mets Red Sox JD Martinez Trade” and you’ll see the Mets were one of the teams interested in JD, but Bloom as usual misjudged the market and insisted on way too much for a 2-month rental.
Martinez had a 117 OPS+ and 119 wRC+. He was really good last season. 17-19% above average. 3rd best as a DH by wRC+ by those with a qualifying number of PA.
Eovaldi was injured last season and only made 20 starts. In the games he started he put up a 3.87 ERA, 3.45 xFIP and 109 ERA+. He was an above average starting pitcher.
You keep missing that Eovaldi is 4 years younger.
If you want to believe the typical writer rumor-mongering. Almost none of those rumors turn out to accurate or true.
JD just signed for $10M. Maybe explain to me how he was worth $19M plus a prospect in July, when he couldn’t hit anything.
IRT Eovaldi, he did start off well, and then he got injured. No one was trading for him simply because he was off to a decent start prior to the injury.
At the ASB, Martinez was hitting over .300 with a 140 OPS+. Wouldn’t a true RS fan know that?
Pads Fans – not only was JD going strong at the AS break, but, he also didn’t have 19m left on his deal either.
Another factor to take into account… HAD JDM been traded at the deadline, ont only would you have gotten more than. The current nothing for him, but, you’d improve the draft compensation coming in for losing eovaldi and Bogey. So the return haul would’ve been substantial in that light.
ads Fans – not only was JD going strong at the AS break,
==================================
He had 1 HR in his final 153 ABs prior to the trade deadline.
Is that your definition of going strong?
Great points soxsam. however, the sox won’t sniff the playoffs hence Kluber over Eovaldi.
Pads – A New Yorker who has been a Yankees full season ticket holder and is pretending to be a Sox fan would definitely NOT know that! LOL!
Joebrady – you need to work on your reading comprehension. I talked about the AS break, not cherry picking a distorted stat.
As of around the second week of July, what do you call this:
* nine home runs in his first 300 at-bats, leading the American League with 29 doubles and slash line of .313/.380/.500.
In case you weren’t aware, an .880 OPS is pretty darn good.
At that time he also led the Majors in reaching base safely four or more times in a game with eight such games, and, ranked in the top 10 for all players in the AL in average, on-base percentage, OPS, hits and extra-base hits.
So yes, I call all of that going strong. What is that considered in joebradyworld?
I talked about the AS break, not cherry picking a distorted stat.
======================
Picking the AS break instead of the trade deadline, is cherry-picking.
Historically the AS break is when trades pick up, and, the earlier you sell the more you get.
Your silence as to the stats JDM put up is telling though Joe Brady. I accept that as you conceding the point as you have no rebuttal
Your silence as to the stats JDM put up is telling though
=================================
I gave you the stats. I cannot make you look at them.
And, again, JD is now a $10M player, and yet you continue to think that he had excess value last year, when he was a $19M player.
Joe, .302 with a 140 OPS+ with 9 HR and 30 doubles is my definition. What is yours?
153 AB? Small sample size theater there.
Joe, You cherry-picked a small sample size that is less than 2 months long.
.302 with 9 HR, 30 doubles, and a 140 OPS+ going into the ASB. That is kicking behind. He was owed $6.5 million at the deadline, NOT $19 million.
You can try all you want to cherry pick, but Martinez was a top trade candidate at the ASB. He would have brought back some nice prospects. Instead your guy got nothing for him.
If you haven’t figured it out yet, if you can make authentic criticism of bloom backed up by common sense and numbers Joe stops answering the question and tries to deflect to something else.
The pattern of comments makes it appear he’s 95% some sort of influencer type trying to generate positive spin for a poorly run front office. Otherwise he’s just got some massive man-crush on chaim and doesn’t like to see the object of affection torn down to reality.
He took less from the Dodgers. It’s been reported by multiple outlets that he had more valuable offers, and it’s been suggested that includes multi-year deals.
When teams are looking for a player for two months, they generally look at more recent results.
Pads Fans
He would have brought back some nice prospects.
=============================
Maybe answer the same question that GA keeps ducking. If JD is so good that he is worth his 2022 salary PLUS some nice prospects, how come he is worth only $10M now?
Qualifying Offer means additional draft pick for Eovaldi going elsewhere is what you missed.
Not much of a pick for Bogaerts and Evoldi
“If the team that loses the player went over the luxury-tax threshold, the compensation pick will be placed after the fourth round has been completed (as with the previous scenario, it doesn’t matter how much the player signs for).
Six clubs exceeded the threshold in 2022:
Dodgers, Mets, Padres, Phillies, Red Sox, Yankees”
Two picks Somewhere around 150-170 not nothing but very little value
If the draft pick comp was still a first, sure… but it’s not. 3rd round hit rate isn’t something amazing. If you prefer the guy with better results who is 4 years younger, sign Eovaldi and forfeit the pick.
Reds – When you say “guy they had” are you referring to Hill? Or Eovaldi?
My response will depend on the answer to that question. LOL
Eovaldi. Actually forgot they had Hill too.
Reds – Fair enough. I don’t think Eovaldi and Kluber are similar at all, if both are healthy Nate is way better and more durable.
Kluber’s last great season was 3 years before Nate’s.
I’m not sure how you conclude that Nate is more durable. Both BR and FG project more innings for Kluber.
Because Eovaldi threw more innings over the past 2 seasons maybe?
BR and FG project a 2 start difference between the two with an avg for Kluber at a 4.35 ERA and Eovaldi at 3.86.
Take Eovaldi every time and twice on Sunday.
Because Eovaldi threw more innings over the past 2 seasons maybe?
===========================
So Fangraphs and Baseball Reference are both wrong on the durability issue?
Joe – Apparently you missed the part where I wrote “if both are healthy”.
Nate led the league in starts last year.
He was 4th in Innings Pitched last year.
He was second in the league in Complete Games this year.
Joe – Are you now trying to claim FG and BR are almost always right?
Seriously?
Joe, What part of facts (Eovaldi threw more innings over the past 2 seasons) vs projections are you not understanding? Which of those two is real?
They can project all they want and it still doesn’t change what actually happened. Eovaldi threw more innings.
Eovaldi threw more over two years. Kluber threw about 50% more last year. The recency factor is part of the projections.
If you want to believe you can project better than BR & FG, go right ahead. I will trust BR and FG, as will the rest of the world.
Red Sox made an offer to Eovaldi and he didn’t take it.
Seems he’s spent more time on the IL than he actually has pitching. over the last 4 seasons. I for one am glad he’s gone.
Funny thing is is that he would have gotten more money next season by accepting the Qualifying Offer (though not the second guaranteed year)
I said at the beginning of the off season it almost seemed like Boston was “forcing” him into resigning. They gave him the QO, he declined then immediately they offered him a deal. Knowing that draft pick was going to play a factor. He waited it out and it worked out for him.
Never heard what the offer was. I read something about a 3 yr offer but not if it was guaranteed or similar to Texas. I also have no idea if that was true or not.
Would be interesting to know what the offer was. Similar and he chose Texas or was it simply more money?
Would you want to go back to the Red Sox knowing that Bogaerts was gone and the team would be fighting to stay out of last place, not fighting for a pennant?
So go to Texas?!
Don’t need to go back for that. I’m living it…
The fact that they didn’t know says it all. X and Devers should have been locked up or traded a couple years ago.
LOL. I just read this 10 seconds after I saw the Devers story. Congrats on being wrong, yet again.
Nah, the guy you know is not always better.
Eovaldi spent most of last year injured, and saw a huge decline in velocity and a surge in homers allowed and hard hit rate. For a guy who relies on velocity and pitches a lot in the zone, those are huge red flags for his future productivity, and I’m fine with the Sox moving on for this particular case
Also won’t miss his splitter. The one that doesn’t do anything and kinda just floats over the plate like batting practice.
.
His cutter has also lost a lot of zip and become basically a batting-practice fastball.
Love the guy for what he did in 2018 and 2021, but I think it’s a good baseball decision to move on.
Eovaldi had 20 starts, so most of the season he took the ball.
Even when he was not on the IL, he was very clearly not healthy for most of the second half of the season.
What does “most” mean? Over half? A lot of his numbers were the same as Kluber and Kluber made more starts and also made “most” his starts, yet will make less money. Possibly a lot less money.
In his first 3 starts back from a month on the IL in June and early July, Eovaldi had one really bad start against Toronto in July where he gave up 9 ER in 2 IP. His other 2 other starts in July he went 10 1/3 IP and gave up 7 ER.
Then in 5 starts in August and September he had a 2.25 ERA and pitched 5 2/3 innings per star
Not sure who you were watching.
Think it’s time for a little rebuild. They have a few really good players, but that’s as far as it goes.
dude of baseball – They have been rebuilding since the 2019-2020 offseason.
Look around, who is left from the 2019 Defending World Champions?
Devers, Sale and …. ?
Bringing in guys/Vets like, Turner – Kluber – Jansen and Chris Martin while keeping Devers and sale (not trading for the future) isn’t a rebuild. A rebuild is a complete restructure of the team, starting from scratch – trading for prospects – rebuilding your farm system.. not signing vet players and keeping good trade pieces
2018 you mean
Josh – I didn’t say World Champions, I said Defending World Champions.
The 2018 Championship team was kept basically intact for 2019.
It has been almost completely dismantled just 3 years later.
Barnes
Rsox – Yes, I was thinking starters but you’re right on Barnes.
Who BTW I think will surprise many people with a big comeback year in 2023.
Fever – the answer to who is left from 2018, Devers, Sale, and….
IS BRASIER!!
Bloom loves the guy and won’t get rid of him.
GASox – He is one of my least-favorite players.
Yeah I felt bad and all when he got hit in the head, but he is one of the most un-clutch relievers in MLB.
Excellent move by BOS. AL east getting better by the day
So will Bloom DFA Casas to make room for Kluber?
OMG!!! LOL. Check mate bro. You won todays internet.
Great deal! They don’t give up a draft pick, and they mostly replaced Eovaldi. Tbh, I would have preferred him instead to save the pick, but both are great players. I am guessing 8-12 million
Offseason now complete for Bloom. Congrats!
I wonder if he’ll stick around long enough to do a stint on all 30 teams on mostly one year deals and mid season trades.
Cleveland
Texas Rangers
NY Yankees
Tampa
Boston
5 down, 25 to go. He could try and pull a Julio Franco and accomplish it.
Rich Hill is halfway there–Pirates are organization #12 🙂
More like 90%
Whoah, living on a prayer
@Trillionaire: A better example is another, Mike Morgan, with 12 teams.
Franco only played for 8 teams in his career.
The list would go
1)Edwin Jackson 14
2)Octavio Dotel 13
3)Matt Stairs 12
3)Rich Hill 12 (once he throws an official pitch for the Pirates)
5)Royce Clayton 11
5)Kenny Lofton 11
5)Todd Zeile 11
@Rsox: 3) Mike Morgan 12
I forgot all about Mike Morgan. Though now you mentioning him reminds me of all the “Mike Morgan world tour” jokes they used to make on ESPN in the 90’s (you know, back when ESPN was fun)
One of the strangest offseason strategies I’ve ever seen from a club.
Letting a young star in Xander walk and losing out on Eovaldi then signing Turner/Jansen/Kluber?
Damn old folks home in Boston right now
Works for me. These 10 year/$300M deals rarely work out.
I mean, it’s only been the past 3 years there have been 10yr/300mil deals. Seems way early to make any judgements.
Well, here’s some interesting data. In the history of baseball, no contract over 6 years given to any player 6’1″, 225lbs or under has worked to the team advantage for the duration of the contract. In Boston alone, recently, look at Sale, Pedroia, Ellsbury. Through the game think Khris Davis among others. You can actually verify this going back 50 years. It’s also why moving Betts was the right call. It doesn’t matter how good the player is, or how dedicated. 200 plus games incl spring and post, flying, running, hitting walls and sliding, time working out etc., it all takes a toll that the smaller body just can not handle.
Interesting data, but I’m not sure it’s instructive w/o a deeper analysis. (Avg height of players in MLB, perseption bias, data set size)
Data aside, the conclusion seems highly suspect. Players under the height of 6’1″ & under 225 lbs break easier?? If the data says that, it’d have to be a huge data set. Smells more like Coralation than causation.
suit – You inspired me to think about all the players who were on $300M contracts this year.
There were 9 of them.
Of the 9 players, only 2 of them (Trout & Seager) were on teams that didn’t make the postseason.
So perhaps surrounding mega-contract players with a solid bunch of complementary players is the key to success?
Fever: It is possible to win with a mega-contract or two, but it looks more likely that mega-contracts will turn into dead money for years that limit a team’s ability to spend. I’ve had enough of counting down the years of bad contracts such Pablo Sandoval and Chris Sale.
Atlanta and Houston may disagree.
suit – You’re basically throwing the baby away with the bathwater.
Just like the 2019 team’s failure had nothing to do with the composition of the team (it was grossly mismanaged by Cora), the two contracts you’ve mentioned – and others such as Tatis – were simply bad decisions.
Sale’s medicals screamed “don’t rush into an extension” but of course Dombrowski did rush into an extension.
And Cherington was so enamored with Panda’s Ortiz-like postseason heroics that he ignored the fact Panda had been steadily declining for several years. Being a great postseason performer doesn’t matter if you don’t make the postseason.
Yes, the tail end of some mega contracts will not look pretty. We all know the contracts are structured that way to get the bulk of the player’s prime years while keeping the AAV reasonable. If it doesn’t work out, the team can always eat the money in different ways that don’t impede other expenditures.
Bottom line, if Bloom is not intelligent enough to operate the way Houston and Atlanta do, then the Red Sox will need to indulge in some mega contracts. That’s a huge reason why they won in 2004 and 2007, because they signed Pedro and Manny to enormous contracts. Without either of those two guys, they don’t win those years.
Fever: I agree with a lot of what you are saying. I don’t like signing players 30 or older to longer deals. Actually, I think wasting the roster space on a declining player is worse than wasting the money. We know teams could eat the money, but it seems that few teams do. It seems like the Yankees could easily DFA Hicks and eat his contract and sign someone better like Benintendi, but they haven’t so far and Hicks only has 3 years and $30M left on his contract. Pedro was off the Red Sox at age 32 and Manny was gone at age 36. I wouldn’t necessarily mind that timeframe for signing players. Ate 40 is too old
Age 36/37 to 40 is too old to have most players under contract in my opinion. A younger player can probably give you the production of the older player at a much lower cost.
Bloom is being ridiculed for being smart. Xander was given 4 years and 80 million too much. In 3 years he will look like a genius.
If Bloom is a genius for not spending to win then the Pirates GM is the best GM ever!
Look…no one is saying Bogaerts wasn’t over paid….but the Padres are trying to win now!
Almost every free agent was over paid this off season.But if you think finishing last in the AL East makes Bloom a genius I’ll take the idiot in SD any day!
We will see how it plays out but unless the padres plan on going full Cohen they are going to be a cluster in a few years.
Why?
If they are willing to spend $250 mil a year they will always be competitive.
I’ve been a Padre fan for over 50 years….I would be an idiot to complain about them “finally” spending money trying to win after the decades of 4th/5th place finishes while the Owner pocketed millions.
Bloom isn’t being ridiculed (or shouldn’t) for not giving X that contract. He’s being ridiculed for letting it get that far. He never once gave him a legit offer, yet said he was priority.
He’s being ridiculed for not getting under the CBT last season and losing out on higher draft picks.
All his other moves can be at the very least debated but those two stand out.
Xander was offered a crazy guarantee by Padres. That wasn’t an error to refrain from outbidding the desperate. Ruling out the shift also hurts his defense/range limitations at a critical position.
How is a team that just reached the NLCS and has Tatis and Machado “desperate”?
Maybe they are just in it to win it and their owner cares more about winning than his bottom line at this point in his life?
Because they know Soto will max out somewhere else in FA and Machado will opt out.
Desperate is sending shotgun massive FA offers all over the map that have real long-term competitive consequences for a franchise. Turner turns them down even though about 40mil greater than Philly for geographic reasons (fine). Then the pivot is to last minute be willing to offer 400mil to an older OF in Judge after selling the farm to get OF Soto……”missing the bid” no less and turned away. Then a late night egregious overpay 11yr offer until age 41 for Bogaerts……who is a nice hitter on the edge of post-prime age performance for most and an average at best SS (considering shift ban). It can be argued that at a younger age Swanson profiles better overall as a much stronger defensive SS….and he got 4yrs/100mil+ less than XB! He’s not as good a hitter, but the overall difference in their games isn’t that vast when considering offense & defense for that higher profile position. Best wishes from not disliking Padres (love the city), but yes you can save some resources for in season rather than spend it all now for attention.
Machado will opt out but stay in SD.
Soto isn’t going anywhere either.
They didn’t sell the Farm to lose him in free agency.
Owner already said $500 mil doesn’t scare him.
“Maybe”….Maybe one leaves….but they aren’t losing both and even then only if they have their first WS title.
Seidler has been very vocal about spending his money to win a championship before he dies and obviously everyone can see he wasn’t kidding.
Obviously Preller disagrees with you about Swanson and even the Braves didn’t want him back.Sometimes there’s more to a player than just his stats.Xander has been the better hitter and the better teammate.
Also,Bogaerts will be 40 when his contract is up and I’m gonna assume the Padres know this.Nowadays contracts are about stretching out the $ for Lux tax purposes.
In this case it was basically an 8 year deal stretched out to 11 to circumvent the Lux tax costs.
They don’t expect Xander to be an All Starr SS…or even a SS,the last 3-4 years of this deal.
I’d have to imagine if he was offered 7-8 years with that absurd aav he would of signed it in a second. I have no idea what Boston offered but I am guessing it was significantly less years and dollars. 26 aav and 30 aav really going to make that much of a luxury tax difference? It was pretty absurd contract. I get Albert Pujols and Mike Trouts getting these types of contracts. They are generational talents. Now they are giving them out to good players not great players.
young? X is 30 so he didn’t deserve anything over a 5 to 6 yr deal unless you’re willing to overpay and thankfully the sox weren’t…
Young star? The “young star” you’re speaking of is 30 years old lol
Let’s party like it’s 1992! Bloom’s next move is to not resign Clemens.
Kluber is still pretty decent. His ERA wasn’t too pretty last year, but if you look at his game logs, two starts inflated it. On May 10th and September 10th, he allowed a combined 14 earned runs in only 3.2 innings between the two starts.
mlb1225 – Fair point.. If he can get them 5-6 innings allowing 2-3 runs per start, that would be a plus for this team.
Don’t pitch him on the 10 th.
I was hoping he would go to the Angels! They still need someone that can go 5+ innings.
1 dollar says Cueto is going to Boston as well.
A dollar should have more to say than that…… 🙂
I think Cueto signs with the Angels. No idea why, but that’s what I think.
Cueto goes back to where it started.
The Angels could use him depending on the price!
2 dollars says Bartolo Colon is going to come back for one more year and play for Boston.
I’m sure he is getting that treatment in the Dominican as we speak.
Colon burned that bridge out of town waaay back in 2008
Why Kluber over Evoldi considering the similar contract AAV?
Draft pick and salary is 7 million higher and possibly 10 million higher if he pitches 160 innings @Dombrowski
maybe the probability that Evoldi spends most of the year on the IL?
Less money, fewer years pretty much the same pitcher.
The AAV’s aren’t close. Why do you think they are similar. $17M is exactly 70% higher than $10M.
Lol wut Eovaldi is getting paid almost twice what Kluber is with an extra year attached
Kluber 10m/31 starts Eovaldi 17m/20 starts.
Say both players put up same numbers they did last season. Eovaldi getting 850k per start and Kluber getting 325k per start.
Are Eovaldi’s numbers 2.5X better than Klubers that would make up the difference?
The answer to your question is because Kluber signed with Boston and Eovaldi didn’t.
Kluber will pitch maybe 4 or 5 innings in those starts. That’s not much of a difference.
That’s the whole point.! Numbers were very similar last season so why pay Eovaldi that much more money?
His performance is better. I do think Kluber is more cost-efficient, along with the QA, but I’m not complaining about deGrom/Eovaldi/Gray/Heaney/Perez/Dunning or Odorizzi with additional depth. I just wished they spent that cash on an outfielder first and then spent the excess on pitching (bullpen first). Evoaldi is definitely better, though. Look at K/BB ratio over the last few years.
Oh, for sure. Nate as a much greater upside than Kluber and it makes more sense for Texas than it does for Boston. The draft pick is what it is but Texas is going for it so can’t fault them for that.
Their K rate is similar including both taking a drop last season. Nate has been much more consistent in his walk rate than Kluber. Last season Kluber had a lower walk rate but their WHIP was almost identical. Both players allow their share of base runners.
Nothing personal against Eovaldi but he’s a frustrating player to watch. Part of it has to do with all the hype that comes with him and he never quite lives up to it. He’s never had that completely dominating season.
I hope he pitches great in Texas and I hope he’s able to get his vesting option. If he’s able to get that then it means he’s been healthy for 2 years in a row. Just be prepared for something different.
I think another thing to consider besides ERA is the ballpark and thus ERA+. Tampa is very pitcher-friendly and Fenway isn’t. This is a better version of Jon Gray, I guess. He has potential that partially hasn’t been reached due to unfavorable pitching environments. Jon Gray had a 4.59 ERA and 107 ERA+ before signing. He had a 3.96 ERA last season and a 99 ERA+, with 100 being average.
I’m sure there are at least a dozen different factors that’ll affect him.
The main factor for him has always been his health and durability. That’s followed him his entire career. deGrom is a little different. He has a history of dominating and only recently has dealt with that.
I’m a Red Sox fan so my view is admittedly probably a little tainted, even though I try to be fair.
Eovaldi will never be a sub 3 ERA or consistently dominating guy but he’ll have his moments. He’s also a roller coaster. He’s a good addition to a pitching staff but shouldn’t be considered a #1 starter. Hopefully he’ll do that in Texas.
This should help the Red Sox finish within 5 games of the Orioles for 4th place
Red Sox are confusing lol.
Would have liked to see him in a Jays uniform this year.
Check back around the trade deadline. He’ll be available
Wish we had him a decade ago. I know we are penny pinching on talent because management knows we have zero chance this year also, but why not Wacha if you are doing this? Younger, better, just proved himself, and fans liked him?
If we know we aren’t seriously competing this year and are trying to save money on short term deals, why not give the rotation slot to some rookies and win 75 games, instead of 82ish games we will probably land close to?
I saw an article recently—I think it was from John Tomase—that argued the Sox management is more interested in achieving the “illusion of contention” than it is in actually winning a World Series. From a business perspective there’s reason to believe in that and their moves to this point suggest that they are, in fact, a team looking to win between 82 and 85 games without breaking the bank to actually win anything beyond that. Hurts my heart as a Boston kid, but this seems to be the new normal.
Adding the extra wild card has teams hoping that putting up a .500 club will keep their team in contention and fill the seats with no realistic aspirations of playing October baseball.
Contention is certainly an illusion with this collection of slop
thecrocusesareinbloom – Great name.
Your 82 to 85 is very aggressive now that Betts, Benny, JBJ, Vazquez, Moreland, Pedroia, Bogaerts, JD, Renfroe, Schwarber, Eovaldi, Price, Porcello and others are gone. We have added Story to off set them but I’m thinking the 108 wins needs to be cut in half so 54 wins. That seems more likely than 82.
This team is playing for the first pick in the draft more than squirming into a last playoff spot. 2021 has made fans way more unrealistic in their expectations. They need to realize that JD, Bogey, Devers and Eovaldi made that happen not the Bloom guys. They were the bad players who played over their heads ONE TIME. And isn’t it ironic that people still praise Kike after him having a career year in 2021 by hitting .250!! On normal playoff teams .250 gets you a spot on the bench or in the minors but with Cora it got him the lead off spot for most of the year!!! That speaks volumes to the fluke that was 2021. It’s in the past now and that type of luck doesn’t repeat. It was a gift to Boston fans from the gods of baseball who felt sorry for them for having Bloom as a GM and Cora as a manager.
As a fan for over a half century, I’m comfortable saying that the Red Sox now resemble the team from the early 60s. After Ted retired they didn’t have much and ownership didn’t really seem to care. That sounds an awful lot like now.
Your comment on “illusion of contention” is OUTSTANDING. Why sign a closer of Jansen’s stature if you are going to win 50 games? To give the illusion of contention. The #1 pick could be Boston’s in 2024. Yes, there are two or three teams that will compete with them for the bottom spot but I have faith in Bloom and Cora to make that happen.
Here’s to a 2024 without the illusionist or the cheater!!!
Ugh no
Any one else get the feeling they will be going with a 6 man rotation?
Hmm. There were a lot of short starts last April – somewhat by design, somewhat by ineffectiveness – that made it difficult to naviagate, even with *ten* relievers. I really don’t think they are capable of getting by with *seven* short relievers right from the jump.
Any averageish bullpen is going to look horrible if you’re insisting on getting five innings out of it almost every night, over and over and over.
Highly doubtful considering the injury history. This was made for depth.
Kluber, 37 in April, was once one of the best pitchers alive.
Well, we’ll leave it at that, won’t we?
Bloom really IS doing a great job and once he trades Devers to the Cubs, he will be gone to a front office job at Addison and Clark.
We need to redo the Price/Betts trade with Sale and Devers.
Sox love Rays pitching, Price, Evoldi, Wacha, Hill, Kluber. It’s as if the GMs are both cut from the same cloth.
I don’t consider all those Rays pitching. Only Price came out of their minors.
Price and Eovaldi were brought in well before Bloom was affiliated with the Red Sox
So happy the Angels didn’t sign him or Evaldi
I’d trust Kluber or Eovaldi to be decent for 1 or 2 years more than I’d trust Anderson to be good over 3.
Roiste, I and most would definitely disagree with u. Most had Anderson as 1 of the few good buys on the market this off-season. I don’t think many would have the 2 u mentioned as good bang for your buck guys. Hopefully thou, they pitch solid and get close to it. We’ll see.
I was hoping he would land back in Cleveland. Of course the Cy Young Award days are behind him but he can still be an effective arm at the back of most rotations. Plus, he is a great clubhouse guy.
They have been interested in him for so many years. It was going to happen sometime. At least we got a starter. Not someone I wanted, but okay.
Seems like a no-brainer deal for most teams. Sure he might be almost done cooking but 1 year $10M is peanuts for a starter. Gladly would have taken him over Kikuchi for the Jays as 5th starter.
At that price it’s okay if he turns out a little dry. Will still be good nutrition either way
Arrieta 2.0
Good move for both parties. Out with Hill, in with Kluber. Corey gets a chance to pitch in Fenway. We will find out exactly what he has left. Looked solid at times last year.
Red Sox are punting 2023.
Bloom cannot stay out of that dumpster!!!! This should help us to elevate to 4th
Another replacement-level player for the Bloom Sox!!! He’s figuring if he signs enough, they can climb to that mythical 81-81 record and achieve MLB stasis!
He was worth 3.0 wins last year, which was better than literally every Red Sox starter. This is a good move
0.7 WAR
baseball-reference.com/players/k/klubeco01.shtml#p…
3.0 fWar,.7 bWar because fangraphs prefers fip.
So Fangraphs is wrong for both position players and pitchers. Thanks for the clarification.
Healthyish Sale and pray for rain?
Kluber, Sale, Jansen, Martin, Paxton. Bloom could be the most popular GM come the trade deadline.
Bloom follows his old boss on another player.
Hernandez, Hill, Wacha, Renfroe, Jansen, Chris Martin!
Projected 2023 finish
Yankees – division
Blue Jays – wild card
Orioles
Rays
Red Sox
That looks about right. The socks are devoting 2/5 of the rotation and two guys that perpetually injured, not to mention I’ll probably on the downside anyway. It’s going to be extremely frustrating for socks fans
Kluber is from the area; seems a good enough spot to end his career.
Sox have had some luck picking up the Rays’ leftovers of late. Not sure if this will follow but does provide a lot of excellent experience as the league’s best pitcher for a number of years.
This obviously opens the door for the Sox to trade Sale. Sale and Devers to the Mets for Baty, Carrasco,Megill,and Mauricio
If that’s the trade, the Sox should take it lmao, that’s absolute highway robbery
Kyle Gibson and Cory Kluber each got 10mil.
I’d have rathered the Orioles gotten Kluber to teach a young Orioles pitching squad than Gibson.
Good sign by Sawx.
Thinking the same. At 10 million I’d rather have Kluber than Gibson
Red Sox offseason has not gone well. They lost an elite SS, a 35 year old DH, a 32 yar old back of the rotation starter, and more. They got a 30 year old Japanese DH and paid All Star wages for him, a 37 year old JT, and a 37 year old back of the rotation starter. Have I got it all?
Chaim is Billy Bean’s cousin from Brooklyn. Let the big money walk. Went after OBP winners and a cheap old SP with some in the tank.
I’m wondering if Bloom is going to talk to Tim Wakefield on a one year contract. The Red Sox are not going anywhere with with him running them like they are the Tampa Bay Rays northeast. Bloom cannot trade to save his life and lives on what is leftover at the buffet table as nd the dumpster. What did this guy turn this franchise into
Good pickup for Boston. Kluber still has plenty left in the tank barring injury. Red Sox will be fighting BAL for 4th place.
I think people are overrating the Rays tbh. Wouldn’t be surprised if either Boston or Baltimore passes them at some point. Tampa’s pitching is pretty good, but that lineup looks like it could have a lot of trouble scoring runs
True but people always overrate TB and they somehow are there at the end.
Red Sox are foregoing a youth movement and are in a full-blown lose-now mode.
I absolutely love it
Hey pinstripe. At one time I wanted to bloom for the Yankees, over Cashman. Not after seeing what he is doing with the Red Sox though. He seemed to work wonders with the Tampa rays, on a shoestring budget. But evidently it had more to do with the development in recruiting team than it did with him. i’m sure Henry and the Red Sox were hoping Bloom would be able to do for the Red Sox what he did with the Tampa rays, they’re still operating with more money than the raise but I guess not. But evidently he’s doing what he was brought there to do or they would not keep him.
I do wonder what he could do with the Yankees though on a budget of $250 million a year, if you could call that a budget lol.
All Red Sox fans from back in the day, of which am one, find all the crying rather amusing.
Decent signing.
Did you mean descent?
People predicted this after 2004. The sense of entitlement has taken full hold.
The Sox are an over 200 million payroll looking for clearance players. Some of the moves make no sense to us on the outside. Not withstanding the lack of depth in starting pitching, the offense is pretty light too
on a McDonald’s menu board, the Red Sox would be an “unhappy meal”
The Red Sox are the equivalent of South-West Airlines. They ain’t going anywhere.
Verrry funny
The way this season is shaping up for the Red Sox, they may need to build a second green monster outside the stadium to hide that team from view.
Solid signing. Hopefully he can provide veteran leadership for some of these young guys that are going to get a lot of innings next year. This roster is going to have quite a new look. Too bad they exceeded the first tax threshold or they’d be getting something better for losing Xander and Eovaldi.
Just… f*&$ing… YUCK! The sooner we fire Bloom the sooner I start rooting for this team again. This offseason has ended my love for this team
Good signing. If he can give em 150 innings with his veteran presence in the clubhouse, this will give them great value for what they’re paying
I think its a good signing. I hope the resign Watcha. But it wont make a difference unless the resign Devers.
A 1-2-3 of Sale Kluber and Paxton would’ve been unfair 7 years ago
Once we finally get our hands on a Time Machine watch out!!
Unfortunately for the socks, it’s quite fair to the rest of the league. Those guys can never stay healthy as good as they may be. My team the Yankees had both of them. They had moments of brilliance, but the long stretches of absence to the illness or injury ruined it.
@Fever
I really like this deal and concur with Fever on this signing (yes, I’m agreeing with you and pointing fingers in a good sense if you haven’t noticed)
pedey – Glad you’re on the same page this time.
Pwndroia and Fever – Like the deal seems unfair. I prefer to phrase it as I don’t dislike this deal. It won’t make a difference in the standings. 5th is still 5th. But it was frugal and one year so no damage done to the payroll for 2024. That’s why I don’t dislike it.
Yoshida’s deal, now that one I dislike a lot. Damage to the payroll that far into the future has a probability of becoming a albatross contract. No defense, no speed, no power but high average/OBP translates to $18MM for half a decade? Makes no sense. Simply created a burden for the next GM.
Idk, I like Kluber and all but what about bringing back Wacha? He proved he’s able to pitch in Fenway, is 5 years younger, and had a great record last year. Maybe he’s wants too much money?
I think asking too much money is what’s holding back the remaining signings, be it Wacha, Profar, etc.
I must be wrong about Chaim Bloom! Certainly if he was as bad at this as he seems, he would have been fired long ago. It has to be that he is a smoke screen for Henry and Co. The longer they keep him the more they can blame him for the whole mess. And it’s certainly going to take 3-4 years for even a great pobo to fix the RedSox. Won’t happen while Henry’s in town. He has too many other interested that come first.
Spitball – My theory on Bloom and Cora is they have compromising pictures of the owners or maybe just knowledge of something they did to the detriment of baseball. Otherwise, none of this makes sense.
It appears that the Red Sox aren’t even trying.
I’ll gladly take Kluber version 2017 right now 🙂
The update with incentives makes it much less appealing. I would be fine with them if the base went down by 3.5 million a year and the max were still 13.5 million.
Now the Red Sox can trade Sale and Devers to the Mets for Escobar and Alvarez.
Yummy!! Can’t wait for batting practice on Klubot! This GM is a real wiz Kid huh?? Lol
More like Wheeze Kid. See ya at Cask and Flagon for condolence drinks!
When John Henry was a little baby
They set him on his banker’s knee
Then he picked up a checkbook
And a fountain pen and said:
“This checkbook gonna be the death o’ me, Lawd, Lawd!
This checkbook gonna be the death o’ me!”
He needs to find the fountain of youth like Verlander and Scherzer
Johnny Cueto was pretty damn good last year. Not sure why this guy is still on the board.
If Sale, Paxton, Kluber, Pivetta, Bello start over 130 games and they’re all healthy at the end of the season, they will be in the postseason, and no one will want to play them. What a dream.
Sign another starter and put Whitlock and Houck back into the pen! It would be lights out
Good luck with kluber. Kluber can be great, I don’t know if he has anything left though. But he’s always injured. I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s injured before the All-Star break.
I understand teams that want to take a chance on him, he’s probably relatively inexpensive, and he’s a former great, two-time Cy Young award winner. However I will be wary of him myself.
And you guys also have Paxton to, who’s always injured. Kluber and Paxton, a bad combination. At least as far as health goes.
solid move, another cool thing would be is if they sign either 1 or both of greinke and johnny cueto, then you actually have a half decent rotation and the rookies and the guys who arent ready, wont be in the rotation, they can simply move down and help when needed. Good move, hell of a pitcher when hes healthy.
I think the recent suggestion that the Sox pick up Gary Sanchez is well taken.
This his career line at Fenway: .250/.333/.548/.882 with 9 HR in 124 at-bats. I think he’d put a lot of dents in the Monstah when the balls weren’t sailing over it.
A number of clueless Yankee fans constantly groused about comparatively irrelevant passed balls while underrating the value of his overall defense, game-calling and framing. He and Christian Vazquez were very close this year in both Fielding Runs Above Average and Framing Runs, and identical in Blocking Runs. Sanchez ranked 23rd in Fielding Runs Above Average and 22nd in Framing Runs.
I think he’d be a very good get for the Sox.
baseballprospectus.com/leaderboards/catching/
Agree that he’s been successful at Fenway. He has improved defensively. I could see him splitting the job with McGuire. I also think they need some right handed pop. For the right price.
Good point, Fink. Reese McGuire bats left and Sanchez bats right. They could platoon. Connor Wong also bats right, but Sanchez will probably hit better than him.
Saw the Red Sock sign Cy Young winner headline , thought they had lucked out w David Cone
Enemy of the State
But, but, but.. Bloom is still the worse
What is the problem with signing Wacha? This guy knows how to pitch. For the Sox to go to ST with Kluber, Sale, Paxton and Wacha and have Houck, Whit, Bello and Mata rub elbows and pick their pitching brains is the chance of a lifetime for these kids.
If Sale or Paxton are ready to pitch move at least Sale when camp breaks for a few more pieces.
More moves still possible I think.
Probably right suit. Gotta think that they get under the CBT though.
Story (R) and Arroyo (R), I have to figure Red Sox are due for a middle infielder that bats left.
Agreed Bobby.
rsmith: Do you have anyone in mind? Jose Iglesias might make sense, but he bats right.
Lots out there for middle infield options that can hit left in the trade market, but FA’s are picked clean. I throw out a few guesses.
None of these names will knock your socks off:
Tony Kemp from Oakland
Vargas from Washington
Ji Bae from Pittsburgh
G Perdomo from Arizona
Much more expensive (more in the dream category):
J Polanco from Minn
J Rojas from Ariz
R Castro from Pitt
Arizona and Pitt have a bit of a wealth of left hitting middle infielders, so thats who I’d be calling first.
Red Sox Nation needs to keep things in perspective. Without a chance of winning 81 games in 2023 the focus now needs to be on length of contract. Any contract that extends to 2025 hurts the future when Bloom is gone and a real GM is trying to fix what Bloom broke. Adding insignificant pieces like Kluber is irrelevant. What is relevant is how long will he be on the books.
The answer is Kluber will be on the books for 1 year at a very reasonable $10MM so this is a good deal if you look at it in a vacuum. Does losing Eovaldi and gaining Kluber make sense? Absolutely not but who cares because the damage of losing Nate, Bogey, JD, Betts, Benny and Vazquez is already done and can’t be undone. Bloom shot himself in the foot multiple times and is bleeding all over the AL East. It’s done. It’s irreversible so lets look forward by trying to limit the damage in years to come. This contract limits the damage in years to come unlike the ridiculous Yoshida deal.
Jansen would have been a great pick-up 4 years ago but now that the team lacks talent it’s a waste of money for two years. Story is a solid player so a multi-year deal for him is positive going into the future whether he plays 2B or his arm is strong enough to play SS until Mayer arrives. Yoshida’s upside is at DH otherwise 5 years was 5 years too many at $18MM a year. At $10MM a year he would have been acceptable to carry and hope he’s not a total bust. At $18MM a year, there is likely a DFA in his future unless he hits over .300 with an OBP close to .400 at DH. Turner is like Jansen, he is a good player at a reasonable price but his contract is short enough that he’ll never see a winning season in Boston. That just leaves Whitlock who appears to be a safer longer term guy than Yoshida. If he performs well he’ll be a steal for the price. If not, he’ll be another DFA waiting to happen.
Perspective needs to change on all Bloom deals. It’s not about the talent of the player as much as the length of the contract and how quickly ownership will cut their loses with Bloom. The longer he stays the more he ruins the future. The way he ruins the future is by wasting future money on guys like Yoshida. We should all be praying for 1 year deals only for Bloom so the next GM isn’t saddled with a bunch of Bloom screw-ups.
So how many games do you think the RS will win?
JoeBrady – Let me preface this with I don’t bet.
Based on talent the Red Sox should win between 65 and 81 games. 81 if Sale is healthy, Devers stays, Paxton is healthy and no other key player has a significant injury.
None of those assumptions are realistic but I gave the Red Sox an upside of 81 for your sake. I hate when you get depressed.
Realistically, it’s a 5th place finish. A top 5 draft pick in 2024. Bloom gets fired mid season along with Cora after Bloom trades Sale or Cora causes more pitching issues for Sale. Overall, a pathetic year. It should mirror 2020 from a win percentage standpoint. 40% winning percentage is the projection give or take 5%.
Obviously, many things could still change so that is a point in time prediction. Ask me again at the end of March when much more is set in stone.
Unfortunately, it appears that I cannot sucker any of you into a wager. So I can give you my long-awaited projection.
88-74, with a great deal of variance, say a low of 81 and a high of 93.
The offense should come in in the top-4. or 5. Pluses from 1st, 2nd, and all three OF positions will offset negatives at catcher and SS. With improved defense.
The addition of Kluber, and more innings from Sale, Bello, and Paxton will be a huge addition, imo, from the 34 starts we gave to gave to Wink, Crawford, Seabold & Davis.
And the BP additions should make this a very good BP.
With Boston clearly not contending in 2023 it is time to trade Sale. I personally hope for him to go to the Texas Rangers because they have prospects the Red Sox need AND with Bochy as manager he’ll rebound back to his old success level along with deGrom. Adding Sale would be a huge move by Texas. With deGrom and Sale Texas is the main contender in the West with Houston. Their new stadium filled with fans will help pay for the higher payroll.
Texas can afford Sale’s salary and if they want to contend sooner he’s a good gamble. Two key players for the Red Sox in any deal with the Rangers are:
1 – Evan Carter 19 yr old OF (#1 prospect in the Ranger Farm System)
In Hi-A at age 19 in 2022 he hit .287 with an OBP of .388 in 100 games. 11 HRS, 10 TR, 18 DB and 26 SBs. He should be ready by 2024. Could be CF of the future.
2 – Anthony Gutierrez 17 yr old OF (#16 prospect in the Ranger Farm System)
45 games in Rookie ball at 17 he hit .308 with an OBP of .358 and OPS of .835 He stole 11 bases in 45 games. He’s raw with high upside.
Since the future infield looks bright with guys like Mayer and Yorke on their way the Red Sox need high upside OFers. These two guys could be starters by 2024 and 2025. The Rangers also have several young very live arms besides Leiter and Rocker. Emiliano Teodo is a 17 yr old with a big arm but any young pitcher is likely to spend 2 of his next 4 years dealing with TJ surgery so I think it’s smarter to trade for OFers who might become all-stars.
Most importantly, Bloom needs to hang onto the Sale money so when he is replaced it is available for the next GM to use wisely. No more Yoshida deals please!!