14 players received qualifying offers this year, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN (Twitter link). The list is as follows:
- Aaron Judge (Yankees)
- Trea Turner (Dodgers)
- Xander Bogaerts (Red Sox)
- Jacob deGrom (Mets)
- Dansby Swanson (Braves)
- Carlos Rodón (Giants)
- Brandon Nimmo (Mets)
- Willson Contreras (Cubs)
- Chris Bassitt (Mets)
- Anthony Rizzo (Yankees)
- Tyler Anderson (Dodgers)
- Martín Pérez (Rangers)
- Joc Pederson (Giants)
- Nathan Eovaldi (Red Sox)
As a refresher, the qualifying offer is a one-year offer a team can make to impending free agents. Players who have previously received a QO in their careers and/or didn’t spend the entire preceding season with one team cannot receive a qualifying offer. The value of the offer is calculated by averaging the salaries of the 125 highest-paid players in MLB. For the 2022-23 offseason, it is set at $19.65MM.
If a player accepts the QO, he returns to his current team for next season on that salary. If he declines, the team would receive compensation if he were to sign elsewhere. The specific compensation depends on the team’s status as both a luxury tax payor and whether they receive revenue sharing payments. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk took a look at the compensation each team would receive for losing a qualified free agent last week.
Signing a player who refuses a QO from another team requires the signing team to forfeit draft picks and/or international signing bonus space. As with compensation for losing qualified free agents, the specific nature of the forfeiture is dependent on revenue sharing status and the competitive balance tax.
[Related: Which Picks Would Each Team Forfeit By Signing A Qualified Free Agent?]
The majority of players who receive qualifying offers decline them each offseason. Judge, Turner, Bogaerts, deGrom, Swanson, Rodón, Nimmo, Contreras and Bassitt were always virtual locks to receive a QO. They’ll assuredly turn them down and sign multi-year contracts, either with their incumbent teams or other clubs. Rejecting a qualifying offer, to be clear, does not affect a player’s ability to continue negotiating with his previous team.
Rizzo, Anderson and Pérez were all more borderline QO candidates, although reports in recent days had suggested each was likely to receive the offer. There’s a case for all three players in that group to accept, although their representatives will have five days to gauge the market before making that decision. Pérez has reportedly received a two-year offer from Texas. The sides have long expressed mutual interest in agreement, but they’ve yet to come to terms on a longer deal.
The final two qualified free agents come as more surprising developments. Eovaldi always looked like a borderline QO candidate. He recently wrapped up a four-year, $68MM contract with the Red Sox. The right-hander was generally effective over the life of that deal, but his 2022 campaign was more of a mixed bag. Shoulder and back injuries limited him to 20 starts and 109 1/3 innings. His 3.87 ERA over that stretch was right in line with his 2020-21 marks, but his strikeout rate dropped a few points to a league average 22.4%. Eovaldi’s fastball also dipped slightly from siting just under 97 MPH down to 95.7 MPH, but that’s still plenty impressive velocity. Paired with his elite strike-throwing ability and the Red Sox’s need for rotation help, they’d be content to bring the 32-year-old back for just under $20MM if he accepted the QO.
The most surprising qualifying offer recipient, however, is Pederson. San Francisco signed the outfielder to a one-year, $6MM deal last winter after an up-and-down 2021 campaign with the Cubs and Braves. The left-handed slugger responded with an excellent .274/.353/.521 showing, connecting on 23 home runs in 433 plate appearances. Pederson also posted elite batted ball marks, including a 93.2 MPH average exit velocity that’s around five MPH above league average. He also made hard contact (a batted ball hit 95 MPH or harder) on a career-best 52.1% of his balls in play.
That figured to give 30-year-old a strong shot at a multi-year offer, although it’s still surprising to see the Giants offer him nearly $20MM to return. Pederson played left field in Oracle Park, but he rated as 12 runs below average over 685 innings in the estimation of Defensive Runs Saved. He’s consistently posted subpar defensive marks and is limited to the corner outfield or designated hitter. The Giants also shielded him against southpaws, limping him to 57 plate appearances against left-handed pitching.
Some notable players who were eligible for a qualifying offer but did not receive one include Jameson Taillon, Mitch Haniger, Taijuan Walker, Andrew Heaney and Michael Wacha. That group will all hit the open market unencumbered by draft pick compensation, which should be a boost to their free agent stocks.
Of the crop of QO recipients, Pederson looks likeliest to accept, although it’s possible that anyone in the group turns the offer down if their reps find interest over multi-year pacts. Players have until the evening of November 15 to determine whether to accept or turn down the QO.
Joc Pederson? Seems like a lot to me.
Didn’t see that coming.
!
jimdevinmoriah
I was thinking the same thing.
Eovaldi was a little bit of a shock to me.
Eovaldi is coming off of a very similar season as the one he signed his last deal off of, albeit without the postseason heroics. Blips of healthy aside, he’s been rock solid, and at this point seems like a pretty safe bet to be quality, not high end but an arm to help build a strong rotation somewhere. He signed a long-term deal for $17M a year that last time, so Boston getting to keep him for under $20M or else receive the qualifying loss benefits seems reasonable.
He’s older now than he was when he signed that mult year deal…
poop – Has any active player not gotten older at the end of a contract?
I think the question you have to ask is, can a 33-year-old pitcher with only 1,257 career innings on his arm be as effective as he was a year ago?
If he doesn’t have any existing health issues, the answer is most definitely “YES”.
I would accept that QO if I were Pederson. I can’t imagine he’d top that AAV or more than 2-3 years on the open market.
He could take the QO, make ~$19 million, and bet on himself to put up good hitting numbers again. His track record is currently too inconsistent but if his 2023 is similar to his 2022, he could net a decent deal next offseason.
He’s a hit or miss and decent when he’s not hurt.
Joc needs to figure out really quick what interest level there is for him and made a decision. His market may be destroyed by his draft pick compensation.
Giants worst case if he accepts they got a fan favorite who has put up many solid seasons. If he does good in a one year than giants scored if he doesn’t than they aren’t held down with a bad contract
Agreed and I think he takes it. He’s likely looking at a 2 or 3 year deal that will add up to $20ish million.
Might as well get it all in one.
Really dumb move….he will gladly accept it
Maybe they want him to accept it as they’ll only have to make a one year commitment.
We thinking everyone but Joc declines?
Joc seems to want to be back on Atl, I bet he would decline if the Braves gave him a 2-3 year deal.
Where do you get that from? He grew up in the Bay Area (Palo Alto), he grew up a Giants fan, and his was happy to become a Giant to be close to home so him brother with Down Syndrome could watch him play. He doesn’t want to go anywhere and the Giants want him back. The money is way too much, but he wants to be there playing in front of his family.
Ummmm have u seen his insta feed recently lol
Champ gets to go everywhere he does
Rizzo for sure, He’s not gonna get 20 million a year anywhere else
Rizzo’s 100% declining.
Rizzo declining cause he can get a 2 year in the 35 million range
Rizzo should accept. I think he will decline though, stagnate on the market, and take an offer of not more than 2/$26M. Being a LH hitter may work in his favor though.
I can also see the Yankees offering him the same contract that he had this year again.
He doesn’t need to beat $20M a year. He can take a less AAV deal with multiple years.
I’m thinking Joc, Eovaldi, maybe Anderson?
Yes and no.
A player could get more guaranteed money on a multi year deal but will they be better off in total?
For easy math, let’s say Rizzo can get 3/45 on the market.
If he takes the QO and has a decent year, he needs his next contract to be 2/26 to be even. If he gets 2/30, he’s better off.
A multiyear deal eliminates risk, but doesn’t always net the greatest total return.
The Yankees slapped the QO on Rizzo for negotiating purposes. The two sides will come to an agreement maybe on a two-year deal (possible three) at a lower AAV than $19.5MM. The QO reduces Rizzo’s value in the marketplace, so it further points him back to the Yankees. Both sides want a reunion. The “worst” that happens is he surprises the Yankees and accepts it, but they’d be fine overpaying by three million since it’s only a one-year deal.
That’s 100% the way I look at Eovaldi. At worst, a slight overpay.
I think anyone below Bassitt on that list has a chance of accepting, but Joc is the only one that I would think has a better than 50% chance of accepting.
I’m thinking Pérez as well, and maybe Eovaldi looking for a better platform year
Anderson, Perez, and Joc all have decent cases to take it. Eovaldi has an outside shot at accepting for a 1 yr deal to bet on himself at a high AAV but he can probably pull a 4yr/60 mill deal if someone believes he will rebound.
I think the Giants may extend him.
Giants are overpaying Peterson by 5 mil . At least
At least $10 million. I don’t think he’d get the QO amount for two years.
Good for Joc. Big payday for him.
Yep. Earned it.
Yeah I’m happy for him. More than double the $ he’s ever seen in a season before.
Same. There was a preseason chat with Joc and he spoke about Zaidi “playing hard to get” in terms of recruiting him. He aimed up and has been rewarded. It’s nice.
Foppert, that’s cool. Sounds like they got a solid rapport.
Never been a huge Pederson fan, but aligned with him AS a fan, when he kept getting bashed for who he is…..Only wish him the contract his production deserves…which is APPARENTLY a lot more than whiney keyboard guys…
Best of luck sir….
I see everyone is looking at the same odd name on this list — Joc. THAT is a surprising move.
Eovaldi might accept it.
Boston would probably be just fine with that!
I would be surprised if he did. He can land a multi year, maybe at a higher rate, if not in the same ballpark.
Five million? Closer to 10. I thought it was a misprint…
Can’t see anyone accepting except Joc.
Rizzo if he really wants to stay in New York… I give him 50/50 only because I cannot see anyone giving up big money and losing picks to sign him. Not sure the rules now on guys who get less than 50 million.
Eovaldi should accept, JP 100% accepts, Anderson 50/50. Perez I think most likely will decline.
I do see Rizzo accepting.
Amateur GM hour here. Question. Is there a GM out there willing to go multi year (or offer above the QO for one year) and lose picks on a 33 yr old with a back issue? Can’t see it.
Kudos to him and his agent for declining the 16 mil opt in. At worst, he’s picked up an extra 3+ mil in 23. Hope he stays healthy. That Bronx right field porch was built with his swing in mind.
Can see Joc signing a 2 year 12 mil per year with SF after taking QO–they really like him there
He’s making 19 mil this year if he accepts, why sign 2 for 24? Essentially locking himself into 5 mil the next year
Because he really likes it there, and they really like him–
can i see them going higher, like 2 for 28 million sure, but in my mind, the odds are great he signs a longer term deal with SF–maybe even a 3 year, 36 million–but everything i read says he wants to stay there–
I understand what you are saying, but taking a 50-75% cut from one year to the next isn’t going to happen. He can love it there and still get paid a lot more
I’ll echo chamber everyone else and say I’m shocked by Joc getting one. SF must really want him in the fold. I could see Anderson and Perez accepting…maybe Rizzo, he and the Yanks could do a similar thing to what Abreu and the Sox did a few years ago and have him accept and then just roll it in to a 2 year deal with a slightly lower AAV that would buy them sometime to work out the details later while not worrying about someone else swooping in while they’re say trying to get Judge signed. Maybe that’s what’s going on with Joc and SF.
I don’t know this for sure but I believe if he accepts, the Yankees are locked into that 19+ million aav for 2023 regardless if he works out an extension after.
I don’t remember how that part of the Abreu situation played out. Even still, if you agree on say 2/32 you just end up with a front loaded deal that’s 16 per year for luxury tax purposes.
Abreu got a $5 million signing bonus in 2020 and his salary if they had played the whole year was $11M.
I guess as long as the terms of a players extension affects, in this case, the 2023 salary, the luxury tax is effected.
My thought is basically the yanks telling Rizzo “look, because of how in demand he is we HAVE to negotiate with Judge first but we definitely want you back. Just accept the QO for now and we’ll have a handshake agreement that we’ll take care of you on a fair 2 year deal in jan/Feb once some other things are settled”.
How does that make any sense? Rizzo can still sign with the Yankees in Jan/Feb if he declines the QO. And make no mistake, he’s declining it.
Bruh, Rizzo would NEVER accept the QO! XD
We don’t XD anymore just say lol
I originally tried to put cry laugh emojis but this site doesn’t accept emojis
I would think Perez and Anderson might accept. They both came off career years, never pitched like that previously and good chance they will never pitch like that again. But of course there may be some team desperate to give them more years and a total guaranteed payday which will be higher.
Joc will be 31 in April…he’s made $30 million to date, in his career…QO pays him $20 million for one season…it’s a no brainer, for Joc…
You can scratch all of these free agents off of Rick Hahn’s shopping list. The qualifying offer recipients surprisingly includes Joc Pederson who might otherwise have been a decent strongside platoon fit for the White Sox in LF. This is fine by me because I’d rather they pursue FA Andrew Benintendi who couldn’t receive a QO as a player who was trade midseason.
More surprised Joc received a QO than Tai Walker not getting one.
Wow joc? That’s a shocker. Over pay.
So does that make him a shock Joc?
Where’s my Q O?
Joc had a 2.8 offensive WAR but a negative defensive WAR -2..1 in 134 games
So if he just DH’s and stays healthy he can potentially put up an offensive WAR of 3.0, making the nearly $20M contract worth it.
It’s also a challenge. Joc has gained a lot of weight the last few years and his defense has suffered. No other team will want to sign him and give up a draft pick or take on his bad defense. This is Joc’s opportunity to take more responsibility for his health and future earning potential.
I think Joc is going to have a really nice 2023.
Yes. I wish he would get himself fitter. It’s not going to do him any harm.
He’s almost guaranteed to accept it. I cant imagine another GM giving up a draft pick to sign a platoon DH.
Hard to believe that he stole bases earlier in his career and played some CF, and was a HS wide receiver. That’s baseball for you. Don’t have to be the fittest to play, especially pitchers. CC Sabathia. Bartolo Colon.
Farhan giving the QO to platoon players. Yeah, I can see why some Giants fans dislike him
Looking at Joc exclusively from the scope of “platoon player” is pretty reductive considering he was their best offensive player last year. Sure the QO is certainly high relative to his value, but the Giants are pretty uninhibited by contracts, so tanking on a one year contract for a player who hit well for them hardly precludes them from being able to make other moves.
i mean that’s what he was. he mashed the hell out of righties, but that’s about all he can do
Right, but the OP is using it not as a simple descriptor, but as a term to devalue him as a player.
Joc is an All Star caliber hitter vs RHP. Unplayable vs LHP. Sounds like a platoon player
Yes, but given that right handed pitchers make up 70-75% of all pitchers he’s in the strong side of the platoon. And he mashes right handed pitching. He has a lot more value than people think. He was a steal last season. Yes, the QO is high and am surprised that he got one. I was hoping that the Dodgers could sign him on a one or two year deal but I guess that’s not happening.
@amk1920
Joc is absolutely a platoon player, and @mlbdodgerfan2015 pretty much already made my point for me, but it’s clear you’re using the term “platoon player” in a disparaging manner, when discussing whether his value even merits a QO would’ve been a much more productive and much less misleading line of thought.
How does a CF start 148games play in 151 games and have a total of 304 chances fielding the ball? Nimmo out there making a play every 4+innings? He should take the QO though I imagine the large markets will mostly just sign these QO players canceling out the compensations.
Lol Nimmo is getting nine figures.
GL to that team. Don’t see the history of games played to believe he’ll be worth a big contract. This may be the best season he will ever have. Turns 30, it’ll be a bad ending to any contract over 4years.
Evidently, the Rangers have more faith in Perez than I do. I honestly don’t see him matching 2022 again.
Jpc Peterson without the shift…. might be a pretty good year for him.
Maybe when the giants said they wouldn’t be outbid for judge they actually meant Joc.
20m for him seems pretty silly. Surely nobody was going to come close to that.
Am sure teams talk with players before doing QO or not—thats why i think the 1 year 20 mil turns into a longer deal–
Joc made 6 mil this year–good hitter, lousy fielder–mostly strong side platoon–
would only have maybe gotten a 1 year at 10, 12 mil max contract with his fielding woes and mostly platoon hitting–
but turn the QO into a 2 year for 24, 26 and it becomes solid for team and player–a popular player for fans and in the clubhouse–
will also, as others mentioned, be helped with new shift rule–
And it shows some commitment to any free agent thinking about signing to have a solid hitter like in the lineup batting behind them.
Near zero chance he takes a 2/24 when he is getting 19.5m next year. If someone is willing to give him that surely he can find much better then 5m next year.
Why not take the 19.5 this year then get another 10-12 next year. If the giants want give him a 2 year deal he may be willing to do something like 2/30
If the team and player discussed this earlier, as am sure they did, then a 2/24 or even a bit more is right in the wheelhouse–
i think thats why they gave him the QO-
partly to show him they like him and respect him, partly because they know he will do a bigger deal for more years.
it seems counter intuitive to say, why wouldnt he take the 20 mil and only settle for a possible 5 the next year, but that is what a lot of one dimensional hitters who are not good fielders are doing more of–taking the more total dollars over more years–
baseball careers are not guaranteed–one injury can hurt earning power–so all players seem to go for the more total dollars in a deal–
its also a great spot for him, he and his family enjoy the Bay Area, and he is super popular with fans and players–
can i see him taking the QO, yes i can–but odds favor a longer contract in years–
He was only going to get maybe 10, 12 million a year–so that would put him right in the 2 year, 24, 26 mil contract—can i see a 3 year, 36 mil also?, yes—-
we shall see–
Rizzo without the shift…
Trea Turner getting the QO… I get the feeling the Dodgers will be moving on from him.
@Mr. Win Stat Defender QO doesn’t mean anything wrt the Dodgers moving on from Trea Turner or not. The QO is really just a formality for most of the guys that get one.
Anderson, Perez, and Pederson seem like the most likely to accept the QO out of that group (though i could see Rizzo accepting as well). None of the three will come close to matching that salary over one year.
Of the rest, i could see Judge, deGrom, and Swanson re-signing with their teams.
Rizzo’s declining.
How on Earth is EOVALDI worth $19.6 mil???? Hope Pederson takes the QO from SF to take them out of the running for Judge.
Sorry–but whatever Joc gets , the Giants have tons of money to spend–his salary is not a hindrance to go after Judge or whomever-
but do agree on Eovvaldi–but that seems to be the approximate going rate for innings eaters nowadays–
Giants can afford both. And a one year guy is not likely to take them out of the running for a dude who will be looking for an 8-year deal.
Eovaldi was issued the QO under the 100% certainty that he will decline it.
SF is probably really close to a multi-year deal, but not quite there yet. They gave Joc the QO to scare off other teams while they finish up, and to give themselves some compensation in case it falls apart at the last minute. There are very few bad one-year deals.
Thank you bhambrave–its what i have been saying–good point on the QO scaring off other teams–being he is a Bay Area boy and wants to be near his brother with Down Syndrome, you are on the right path
I agree. Pederson has proven over the past 2 years he’s worthy of a multi-year deal. Giants clearly value what he brings to the table. Here’s hoping they hammer out a contract that works for all parties involved.
Only reason I can see Joc rejecting the QO is if he can get a 2-3 year contract at somewhere between 10-15 mil per. Cashing in on his one big season.
Agree–and i figure he and SF talked already–as i have been saying 2 or 3 year deal at about 12 mil per year
Hmm 19+mil 1yr or 2 for 20-30? Something is wrong if he’s going in to this with the idea he couldn’t 10mil or more after 2023 with no QO attached.
The Red Sox 2022 was a crap fest pitching wise. Bringing Eovaldi back makes sense. They need him to start 30 games, not 20. They need Whitlock to start 30 games. They need Paxton and Sale to start 40 games combined. Pivetta gets his 30 starts. Hill gets 20. And Bello gets 20. That gets them 8 games into the postseason. We can even dream about the World Series.
Dang. I though Joc would maybe get 2/20. But, as they say, there is no such thing as a bad one year contract.
I’d sign Taillon without the compensation pick before Eovaldi with the comp pick.
Eovaldi-I like that the RS made the QO. He’s probably worth roughly the $19.65M. and I think we would like to minimize the number of moves we need to make.
Pederson-I think he declines. His career numbers are quite similar to Schwarber. I don’t think he is breaking the bank, but I had him on my RS radar.
Rizzo-he should take the QO. He pockets the extra $3M and could still walk next year, and without the QO. He’s got a good, but declining skill set, played poorly in Aug/Sept, was nicked up a bit, and his H/A stats are slightly stacked. I don’t think anyone is going much past maybe $26M/2 AND giving up a draft pick.
My thoughts as follows:
Shouldn’t make a difference to their free agent interest:
Aaron Judge
Trea Turner
Xander Bogaerts
Jacob deGrom
Dansby Swanson
Carlos Rodón
Willson Contreras
Chris Bassitt
Could hurt their free agent value:
Brandon Nimmo
Anthony Rizzo
Should accept the offer:
Tyler Anderson
Martín Pérez
Joc Pederson
Nathan Eovaldi
Good list with a couple changes. I’d move Eovaldi up a level into the “Could hurt” bucket. He still has a very good arm, so it wouldn’t surprise me if someone offered him a four-year deal. Nimmo is going to get a five-year deal, so he should be in the “shouldn’t make a difference.” Rizzo, as I noted elsewhere, may be a case of the Yankees purposely trying to limit his market. Both sides seem to want a reunion, so I believe Yankees wouldn’t have an issue if he simply took the one year deal and they pay a premium, or they’ll negotiate a two or three-year deal at a lower AAV. I’m not sure teams will want to pay him on a short-term deal and give up a prospect, so the Yankees used the QO to increase the likelihood the two sides come to agreement. I think the Rangers might have done similar with Perez.
Yeah, Eovaldi is on that border. Maybe since starting pitching is always in demand, maybe he does belong in the could hurt category.
With Rizzo, I agree that limiting the market was a goal by the Yankees. And agree about the same done with Perez by the Rangers.
With Nimmo, it’s not so much about the years or AAV as to why I list him in the could category. It’s more about the draft return. He isn’t a franchise or even foundation type of player, The salary he’ll most likely get was a difficult call for many teams. The draft return takes teams out of it who may have been willing to give him what will essentially be an overpay and very likely regrettable contract for some team after the second season considering the many flaws in his game. It will be interesting though. but that’s why I see him as possibly being hurt by the draft compensation being attached. That in itself has probably already taken out an extra year in a deal for him.
I can understand making a QO to Eovaldi, but I can’t understand not making one to Wacha. Must be something going on behind the scenes we don’t know about.
But why not QO Wacha too?
A $20M salary for Joc is more than his market will reach – and I’m sure FZ knows that. The fact that they QO’d him anyway, is an indication of how difficult they think it will be to replace his lefty power bat this year by some other means. Add to that the fact that they can easily afford the one year overpay and it’s not too hard to understand why they went ahead with the QO. And it might even help set the stage for a 2 or 3 year deal, albeit at a lower AAV.
@goob: Yes, Pederson’s a good (perhaps underrated) player, but nearly $20MM? IMHO he should accept, unless he wants a multi-year contract with a (probably significantly) lower AAV. I’d think he’d be more in the $10-$12MM range. (But what do I know? I think teams way overpay many players!)
@MarlinsFanBase got it right
It’d be helpful if you’d list the QO amount next to each player’s name (if you have those figures).
I’ll guess they’re all $19.65 million.
Joc Pederson- “ that offer is a slap in the face”