The Astros have won the division title in the American League West in each of the past five full seasons. They also reached the ALCS in each of those years, along with the shortened 2020 campaign. There hoisted the World Series trophy twice in that time, including just a few months ago. However, their rivals have been aggressive in trying to load up to chase them in 2023 and it now seems like four out of the five clubs seem like legitimate contenders.
There’s still over a month until pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training, meaning there’s still time for some aggressive transactions that will further change the calculus. But much of the heavy lifting of the offseason appears to be done. Most of the top free agents are off the board, with guys like Jurickson Profar, Michael Wacha and Andrew Chafin the top remaining options. Those are fine players that could certainly help a team but they wouldn’t be franchise-altering additions. There’s also the trade market, which could theoretically see Bryan Reynolds on the move. The Rangers are reportedly interested in him, but so are many other teams and the Pirates have continued to hold firm to an asking price that seems to be quite high.
Whether there are significant moves still to come or not, let’s look at where the clubs stand now, starting with the reigning champs.
Houston Astros – 2022 record: 106-56, projected 2023 fWAR: 48.2
There’s not much doubt about the Astros at this point. As mentioned, they’re enjoying an incredible run of success. Going into the winter, they lost some significant players to free agency, the most notable of which was Justin Verlander. The club hasn’t done anything to supplant him thus far, which is a defendable but risky move. The rotation has plenty of solid options without Verlander, with Framber Valdez, Lance McCullers Jr., Cristian Javier, Luis Garcia, José Urquidy and Hunter Brown on the roster. However, Verlander is the reigning Cy Young winner after tossing 175 innings with a 1.75 ERA last year. Subtracting that kind of performance would have an impact on any club.
On the position player side, they lost Christian Vázquez, Jason Castro, Trey Mancini, Yuli Gurriel, Michael Brantley and Aledmys Díaz to free agency. They’ve since re-signed Brantley and added José Abreu. Overall, the team is still going to be good, but is it enough to hold off the others? FanGraphs certainly thinks so, giving them the highest projected wins above replacement on their depth charts, but there are three clubs within striking distance.
Seattle Mariners – 2022 record: 90-72, projected 2023 fWAR: 43.5
The Mariners finally broke through in 2022, earning a Wild Card spot and reaching the postseason for the first time since 2001. That snapped the longest active postseason drought in the majors, a dishonor that now falls to the Tigers and Angels, who each last qualified for the playoffs in 2014.
This offseason, they have been fairly quiet in terms of free agency, with reliever Trevor Gott marking their only signing so far. They have made some notable trades, however, as is their wont. They acquired slugging outfielder Teoscar Hernández from the Blue Jays, sending reliever Erik Swanson and prospect Adam Macko the other way. They also acquired Kolten Wong from the Brewers, sending Jesse Winker and Abraham Toro to Milwaukee. Hernández and Wong will essentially replace two of the club’s most significant free agent departures in Mitch Haniger and Adam Frazier.
The Hernández/Wong pairing could certainly act as an upgrade over Haniger/Frazier, but probably not a huge one. If the club is going to catch the Astros, it will likely have to come from gains made by players already on the roster. Having a full season of Luis Castillo, whom they acquired at the deadline last year, will certainly help. Julio Rodríguez had an incredible rookie season at the age of 21 but could perhaps be even better this year. A breakout from struggling young outfielder Jarred Kelenic would be a tremendous boost. Continued development from young pitchers like George Kirby and Matt Brash would also help.
Los Angeles Angels – 2022 record: 73-89, projected 2023 fWAR: 40.4
The Angels have continued to disappoint despite having two of the best players on the planet on their roster. That was the case again in 2022, as Mike Trout was limited by injury to just 119 games but still produced 6.0 fWAR while Shohei Ohtani produced 3.8 fWAR at the plate and 5.6 on the mound. Still, the club fell out of contention in the summer and never really made it back.
Despite years of falling short of expectations, there are reasons to think 2023 could actually be the year they deliver. They didn’t lose any key contributors to free agency, with players like Michael Lorenzen and Matt Duffy marking some of the most notable departures. They’ve also patched some of the holes that have caused their ship to sink in past years, as a lack of adequate depth has continually wasted the star performances at the top of the roster.
Starting pitching has long been a struggle for the club but the rotation seems like it could be in the best shape in years. 2022 saw encouraging developments from Patrick Sandoval, Reid Detmers and José Suarez, all of whom are slated to return to the club this year. The Halos also supplemented that group by signing Tyler Anderson away from the Dodgers. That gives them a solid front five with Tucker Davidson, Griffin Canning and Chase Silseth on hand as depth options. On the position player side, they’ve added Hunter Renfroe, Brandon Drury and Gio Urshela. Those aren’t stars, but the Angels already had stars. They needed adequate role players to supplement their stars and seem to have added some solid options.
Texas Rangers – 2022 record: 68-94, projected 2023 fWAR: 41.9
Of the four plausible competitors in the division, the Rangers will need the biggest turnaround, since 2022 was rough. Turning a 68-win team into a contender in one offseason is no easy feat. But they already did most of the heavy lifting on the position player side last winter, adding Corey Seager and Marcus Semien on mega deals just prior to the lockout.
The big task of this winter would be upgrading the pitching staff and they have completely overhauled it. They re-signed Martín Pérez while signing Jacob deGrom, Nathan Eovaldi, Andrew Heaney and trading for Jake Odorizzi. Those five, along with incumbents Jon Gray and Dane Dunning, put the club in a much better position going forward. There are injury concerns scattered throughout that crew, but it’s miles beyond the staff they had last year.
Oakland Athletics – 2022 record: 60-102, projected 2023 fWAR: 29.3
Since the lockout ended in March, the A’s have leaned hard into a rebuild. In just the past ten months, they have traded away Sean Manaea, Chris Bassitt, Matt Olson, Matt Chapman, Frankie Montas and Sean Murphy. They lost 102 games last year and should be lined up for another rebuild/evaluation season. They’ve made marginal adds by signing Aledmys Díaz, Jace Peterson, Drew Rucinski and Trevor May, but the expectation of just about everyone is that they will be in the basement yet again this year.
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The Astros will likely go into the season as the favorite, since they are the reigning World Series champs and have made a few solid moves this offseason. But there are plenty of reasons to think it could be an interesting battle all season long. The Mariners, Rangers and Angels have all made interesting moves this winter and are all within 8 WAR of the Astros according to the projections of FanGraphs. Is this the year the Astros get dethroned?
What do you think? Who will be best in the West in 2023? Have your say in the poll below.
(poll link for app users)
Let me think on this one.
Who are the 5% voting for the A’s, and, how can I get a legal prescription to whatever y’all are using?
I voted “Present” and it defaulted to the A’s. Sorry.
Just to much experience….
The Astros are obviously the favorites to win the AL West. In fact, until proven otherwise, they’re currently the best team in all of baseball.
I begrudgingly agree…. Can’t take the belt until the champ is beaten. (Shuffles feet and tries to kick a stone, but appropriately misses, slips and falls. Shakes fist at sky).
Yankees need some offensive help. Can’t be homers or nothing. What is Cashman doing?
Hey! We can be homers if we want to!
And, Cashman is saving money, but in a very expensive way. It’s kind of like when your wife buys something (or a lot of somethings) at 20% off and proceeds to tell you how much money she has saved you.
You got me there!
Luhnow built a hell of a team
Profar is literally right in front of Cashman’s face. It would be a wise pick up
I love that comment, Yankee Clipper.
It’s one of those that one wishes one had said.
Stop sleepin on the A’s man!
Angels…LMFDO
Watch out for the A’s in ‘24 with their prospects coming up like Langeliers, Soderstrom, Gelof, Butler, Diaz, and a rotation of Waldichuk, Hoglund, Cusick, Ginn, Muller, along with a Starting pitcher named Mason Miller who most people don’t know about but they will in the coming years.
The 2024 A’s may be the 2021 Tigers or 2022 Orioles. No, the earliest the A’s are making noise is 2025.
Probably, but I’d make a bet they at least won’t be the bottom dwellers again in ‘24.
That will be their first year in Las Vegas, right?
They will still be in Oakland considering Vegas has no money to build a free $2 billion dollar stadium for Fisher. Fisher said he will only move if a city gives him a billion for a new stadium and nobody has that mush laying around to hand out.
Wow, only 61% say the Astros thus far? I have them as favorites to win the AL altogether. Granted, it doesn’t yet say how many people have voted.
I don’t know why, but it seems to me the Rangers are due for some luck. If that rotation has an unexpectedly heathy year, they might actually make some noise in the west. The Astros are just plain better overall, but every year some team surprises.
This is one of the many reasons why I love baseball…..there are always surprises, injuries, breakouts and players with pedigrees who have a down year. Hell, even the properties of the actual balls used in MLB have been known to change from year to year!!
We should see more Runs scored with the Shift Rule change. Teams that have strong Pitching and Defense should rise to the top. I expect a tight race between the two best AL West teams who have the best Pitching and Defense….. M’s and HOU. Seattle’s Pitching Staff will have 3 All-Stars (Castillo, Gilbert and Kirby) and an MVP Finalist (Julio.) The M’s and HOU’s 2023 season will be just like their 2022 ALDS battle- very little between the 2 teams except this time Seattle comes out on top.
Seattle may not have INF depth but it has plenty of Pitching and OF depth- it has 6 MLB SP’s 7 if you stretch out Matt Brash. They have SP Prospects in Emerson Hancock, Taylor Dollard, Bryce Miller and a deep collection of RPers. Seattle also has 3 young OF prospects who could fill in if need be: Cade Marlowe, Trammell and Z DeLoach. Not to mention the flexibility of OF/INF players like Dylan Moore and Sam Haggerty
A’s by a landslide (yawn)
For 5th place yes….lol
Perhaps it’s time for some Astros regression to the mean. My crystal ball predicts the Astros rotation is going to show some cracks and maybe a few slumps. Bullpens are notoriously noisy, and this one could blow up rather swiftly with Montero, Neris, and Stanek pooping the bed. Mariners win the division by 6 or 7 games. It’s their time to shine for sure
The thing about your crystal ball is people said similar things when Cole left, when Springer left, and when Correa left. This is similar. I’m not saying your prediction is wrong, but rather don’t be surprised if it turns out to be wrong, just like all the other times people predicted regression for the Astros.
If anything, the Astros are going to get better. Their rotation and parts of their bullpen are young and still have their best years ahead of them. Same with Pena, Tucker, and Alvarez. Injuries are the only way they regress this year, but that is true of any team.
Don’t forget that they also *improved on offense* by replacing the offensively declining Gurriel with Abreu.
@Chupa I don’t know if we can assume that just because they are young, that the Astros rotation will inevitably improve. It’s not so linear. And it’s a young rotation after losing Verlander— McCullers just coming back from surgery—-throw a wrench or two into the works (with an injury, perhaps a Framber regression) and things could spiral. Young bullpen? Abraeu is young but those other guys have a track record, which version are you going to get?
Yes, all these things I mention can happen to any team any time but they haven’t happened yet to the Astros during a very great run…at some point the odds catch up with you. And it doesn’t have to take a system-wide meltdown ; a regression to 90-92 wins could be enough to end their dynasty as I can see the Mariners be a juggernaut team with 98-100 wins.
@Ignorant above…
Up ticked because I agree with a lot of what you wrote.
But even as an A’s fan I’d argue that the odds caught up with the Astros with a 2nd WS. For six straight years they’ve been the best team in the AL and two WS is no better than par for the course in the crap shoot. They are the best run (of the well funded teams) and seem to have great player development of their farm.
Nevertheless I’m at A’s fan so I’m ticking the A’s. @Ruff Kuntry keeps me optimistic at all times hoping for a 2012 style miracle. If I was going to pick a team to beat the Astros to the AL West it’d be a HEALTHY Rangers. And that has you betting on a healthy De Grom. I’d rather bet of the English weather….
Peter in London
This is why I keep thinking they should have grestly outbid the Dodgers Kershaw and given him an offer he can’t possibly refuse – 5 years 150 million since he is more durable and is the model of consistency, as he had 10 straight sun 3 ERA seasons.
@ignorant It is going to take more than a wrench or two to throw this team off. Still a really good rotation if you’re right about Framber and McCullers regressing. All five aren’t going to regress. Abreua along with Brown and some high minors prospects also are in the pipeline for the bullpen or pitching injuries. You’re assuming a lot is going to go wrong with a very deep team while the same type of regression isn’t going to happen to Seattle. The big difference between the two is Houston has the depth to withstand it and Seattle doesn’t. Seems like a lot of wishful thinking in your conjectures.
Dream much…..
Astros, yeah.
Anyone picking a team other than Houston is only doing so with wishful thinking. Seattle likely won’t finish within 13 games of them again. The gap between Houston and the rest of the west is quite large.
You have to remember how close that ALDS series was between those two teams. One less homerun given up in Game 1, and one more hit with RISP in each of Game 2 and 3 and the Mariners sweep that series. The Mariners were the 2nd best team in the American League last season and gave the Astros a run for their money (not in the division b/c of Mariners poor start, but in the Division Series where it counts )
That’s a short series, though. This is about the division. Over 162 games, the best teams rise to the top. The Mariners finished 16 games behind the Astros and haven’t made many moves this offseason aside from getting Wong and losing Winker. And while the Astros lost Verlander, they swapped out Gurriel for Jose Abreu. I can’t see the Mariners having made up 16 games this offseason.
@rct My un-expert ignorant opinion is that the Mariners make up those games in a variety of ways in 2023, and some of that will be due to Astros regression to the mean in both their rotation and bullpen. It’s a roll of the dice and those starters are young. Injury , regression for Javier, Garcia, and a trip back to the IL for McCullers. That bullpen with Neris, Montero, and Stanek could totally jump the shark, just look at how they fared prior to 2022. On the Mariners side you forgot to include an entire season of Teoscar in RF and complete seasons by Raleigh and JROD. Full season of Luis Castillo as our ace too, and Robbie Ray reverting to Cy Young form (seems like every odd year he pitches much better lol.) Mariners could be pretty scary if everything clicks.
Regression to the mean is real but you’re assuming a lot to say you’ve identified the mean lies below ’22 performance. The one area i’ll agree on is injury – aside from Brantley, the team had very healthy mid-postseason stretch that probably wont be repeated in ’23. I will say that SEA is probably the 2nd best team in the division but also in the AL as a whole.
You expect regression from the astros but none from the mariners? biased much?
They got swept. There was never any doubt who the better team was. Seattle finished 16 games back. The bye hurt all the teams that had them, but luckily for Houston they were much better than Seattle. That’s the only reason it wasn’t the blowouts.
What’s up big dawg. Go M’s
It’s the Astros until proven otherwise. I do think they’ll drop down to “only” 95 wins or so. Losing Verlander is a big deal and everyone but the A’s have improved.
Yeah the Astros, but it won’t stop me from rooting for the Mariners in the AL West.
Astros will win 100 easily
Astros: 100 wins
Angels: 87 wins
Rangers: 84 wins
Mariners: 83 wins
This one really isn’t close. The Astros are the class of the AL. The Angels have improved by leaps and bounds and aren’t done yet. The Rangers have improved the most of anyone. The only team I see dropping out of the race, besides the A’s are the Mariners. They overperformed by a lot last year. Regression to the mean, and they’re a .500-ish team with a solid farm.
This looks very reasonable. Reynolds may add a few wins too, and a bullpen can only help.
People said the same thing last year after the Mariners went on to win 90 games in ‘21. It’s very hard to see them overperform with one of the best rotations in the league. Remember, they’ll have a full season of Kirby, who had a great rookie season. They’ll also have a much improved Gilbert who took leaps forward. Lastly, a rotation with Castillo leading and Ray as your fourth is dominant.
I don’t see them much above 90 wins, but I would not put it past them to win 88-95 wins.
What have the Angels done to make you think they will win 87 games? Their bullpen might be the worst in all of baseball, starting pitching is average to slightly below average, and their hitting is streaky and inconsistent due to injuries that happen every year to their key players like Trout and Rendon. Not only to mention the huge potential injury risk to Ohtani that would whipe out the Angel’s season. Down years from Walsh, Stassi, and no idea how O’Hoppe will pan out all going into this season lead to a lot of question marks. I have the Angels finishing 4th with around 70 wins, and I’m being optimistic here
LFGMets:
“What have the Angels done…”
The article actually lays out what the Angels have done, which is the most in any off season…ever. Does it mean 87 wins? We’ll see.
“…starting pitching is average to slightly below average…”
You are alone in that assessment. Their rotation was 6th in MLB last season after the ASB. And here is an article from MLBTR a few days ago that completely contradicts your statement:
mlbtraderumors.com/2023/01/the-angels-potentially-…
The rest of your statement is based on nothing more than assumptions that Trout, Rendon and Ohtani get injured, etc. I could go on with more facts and assumptions of my own but you get the point…hopefully.
So by all reports, especially by those who actually know and work in baseball, the Angels have improved this off season. So how you end up with them losing more games in 2023 than 2022 is a mystery that you are welcome to explain further.
@prov356 You know that the MLB is a 162 game season right? Not 81 games. Any team can have a streaky half year. Your saying that they had the 6th best starting rotation after the all star break, means absolutly nothing. Their bullpen will blow every game. Their hitting is just average. What improvements have they made that make you think “They are gonna improve almost 15 games from last year”. Not to mention that the Astros, Mariners, and Rangers hitting all got better this offseason
LFGMets – “What improvements have they made that make you think “They are gonna improve almost 15 games from last year”.”
I didn’t say anything about them improving 15 games from last year. What I said was they have made improvements this winter that are unprecedented for this owner. Neither you nor I know how that will translate to a full season. I don’t believe they’ve done enough, especially to improve the bull pen as you pointed out. I also would like to see them pick up a catcher and a true short stop
However, I was looking for an answer from you regarding how, with all the improvements they’ve made and the baseball analysts mostly agreeing they are a better team going into 2023, you believe they will lose more games in 2023 than they did in 2022.
“Your (sic) saying that they had the 6th best starting rotation after the all star break, means absolutly (sic) nothing.”
Their 2nd half rotation rank actually does mean something. Otherwise MLB wouldn’t keep that stat and report on it. The fact that it was in the second half shows progression throughout the season, not regression.
“You know that the MLB is a 162 game season right?”
No need to be condescending. It’s just a discussion, not personal.
Same can be said for Seattle. They were 10 games under .500 at around the midpoint. Finished with winning 90 games and a playoff spot. But nobody talks about it. Saying they will win 80 to 85 games.
Yep, Seattle had a good year.
@AngelicVisions I don’t see how the Mariners will go backwards as you predict. The team they ended so strongly with was not the team that had a horrible April, May, and then 10 games under .500 into June when the Angels instigated a brawl that turned their season around. A full healthy season of Luis Castillo, George Kirby, Cal Raleigh, JRod, Teoscar Hernandez, & others will by definition have to improve on 90 Wins. The problem with the Angels is their rotation is full of guys used to going 5 1/3 innings when they aren’t actually hurt (sans Ohtani). Which means you need quality bulk relievers , long relievers to make up those innings or things will spiral. Angels are a .500 team. Texas has a rotation where at any given point in the season 2 or 3 of them will be on the disabled list. They will require a lot of starting depth, and a shut-down bullpen to sniff .500.
This is quite ignorant. They had a 77-85 projected win loss last year based on runs, and they added deGrom, Evoldi, Heaney, and Odorizzi. They still have Dunning, and the guys who started games are now number 8 or lower. Even if all of them get injured, Bench should get them to 500. It’s impossible for all 4 to be injured at the same time. Sure, there is variance, but I would say 85 is a 50th percentile outcome, with plus or minus 4 being realistic. Maybe add 3-5 with Reynolds and a few bullpen guys.
THANK YOU. I’ve been saying this shizz for months. Rangers will surprise a lot of people next year.
This is quite ignorant. They had a 77-85 projected win loss last year based on runs, and they added deGrom, Evoldi, Heaney, and Odorizzi. They still have Dunning, and the guys who started games are now number 8 or lower. Even if all of them get injured, Bochy should get them to 500. It’s impossible for all 4 to be injured at the same time. Sure, there is variance, but I would say 85 is a 50th percentile outcome, with plus or minus 4 being realistic. Maybe add 3-5 with Reynolds and a few bullpen guys.
I think this is probably where I stand as an Astros fan. We are weakened by loss of JV but Abreu strengthens the lineup. Wild cards will be how Brantley looks (he was injured the 2nd half of last year so wasn’t a factor on the World Series squad), and the emergence of Hunter Brown, who is a JV clone, and coming off AAA pitcher of the year in the PCL and throws 99. I do wish the Astros added some more bench strength. Re-signing Gurriel or adding Jurickson Profar would be good, to replace Aledmys Diaz. I do believe the Mariners, Rangers and Angels (in that order) will be competitive and so it will be harder to win the West, but in the end the Astros will win it handily again.
Astros and it’s not even close sadly
Just curious, but why would you proclaim yourself a Mariners fan if that’s what you truly think ?? I bet sometimes people pretend to be fans of a certain team on these boards as a way to badmouth that team, but because they are proclaiming themselves a fan, that means they are “telling hard truths” and thus get upvotes from other haters. It would be quite excellent if we could see the history of posts by username so then we can ascertain if people are straight shooters or just blatant trolls.
Was curious about that myself! Never seen so many with Mariner related tag names to be so negative. Other members of other teams talking there teams up. But not so called M’s fans.
He’s not wrong. It isn’t close at all. Only homers and Astros haters think Seattle is close.
Um, really tough question….
Astros are well ahead of the pack.
I was going to ask what kind of idiot picked the Rangers until I saw that 4.57% of users are As fans.
The A’s will scratch out 81 wins and steal the WS from a 105 game winner.
How does Houston not have at least 80% of the vote??
Lots of people wish the Astros weren’t as good as they are, so it’s more of wanting someone else to win.
Feel like the Rangers and their pitching staff could win 95 games, or 80 games. A lot could go right. If Eovaldi and Odorizzi rebound, DeGrom stays healthy, and Heaney and Perez continue what they did in 2022, they’ll win a ton of games. But that’s a lot of if’s.
Precisely. Way too many ifs.
I don’t see them bottoming out as last year, but, realistically I don’t see them about 85 wins.
If only Kelenic and Trammel pan out to their potential. A platoon of those two would add a serious threat and eliminate the biggest question mark to the Mariners’ season: offense.
Astros until they are beaten
Kind of sad to be honest that teams like Oakland and Anaheim would even receive votes. Those poor fanbases are just lying to themselves. The Angels would need players other than Ohtani to show signs of life. Trout can play but at this point he seems more willing to spend time on the IL for minor bumps and bruises than anything else. $37M a year doesn’t buy heart or toughness I guess.
Really the only honest sentence is “The Angels would need players other than Ohtani to show signs of life”. You look like an angry fan projecting or just another troll.
Angry and jealous.
The criticism is beyond baseball, it’s California.
The whole world HATES anything from California. Jealousy. Over and Over again. Jealous of what? The influx has ruined my home state. I can’t even find peace in the Sierra anymore.
Most of the natives have left because of ALL of the people from all around the country and world want to live here. I work with no one from CA, none of my neighbors are from here. We have to take on everyone’s homeless from all around because of the weather here.
So when you slam us “Californians” its a joke.
The latest transplant congesting my neighborhood is that crazy snowy owl.
I bet she’s not going back to the arctic either?
I think this is the year Mariners surpasses Astros and advance to the AL Championship. Not quite sure if they make it past the AL Championship though.
Personally I think the Mariners will face stiff competition from the Rangers and Angels for the wild card.
A’s, Angels, Rangers, Mariners, Astros. Thats what the standings will look like – after the first day.
And the reverse order at season’s end
Tdat1979- Unfortunately the schedule means that A’s and Angels will not be on the same side because they play each other.
Please stop using the word “rebuild” when referring to the A’s. What John Fisher is doing to that franchise is sickening. He has to be one of the worst/cheapest owners in all of major sports. He deserves to be banned from owning a MLB franchise. JMO
Gone to games since 1971. There have been some ugly years for sure (ex. Team MVP 1977 – Wayne Gross), but this is something beyond awful. Fisher selling would be the turn-around we’re looking for. And the only one that matters. Everything else pales in comparison.
With Ohtani in Dodger blue by the trade deadline, A’s will be ahead of the Angel’s by EOY.