Padres superstar Manny Machado today confirmed to reporters, including Chelsea Janes of The Washington Post, that he plans on opting out of the remainder of his contract following the 2023 season. Machado signed his current 10-year, $300MM agreement with San Diego ahead of the 2019 season, and in opting out would leave five years, $150MM left on the table from his current contract.
This decision is no real surprise, as that $150MM figure appears to be one Machado should have no trouble beating on the open market next offseason, provided he remains healthy. After an offseason that saw top free agent Aaron Judge sign a $360MM deal that begins in his age 31 season, it seems like a reasonable bet that Machado, who would also be entering free agency ahead of his age 31 season, might become the first ever player to sign multiple $300MM contracts in his career, though he obviously would not be playing through the entirety of his first one.
Machado’s certainly performed at a level to this point in his career that would warrant such a contract. The runner-up for the NL MVP award in 2022, Machado has six All Star appearances, five top-5 MVP finishes, two Gold Gloves, and a Silver Slugger award under his belt. With a career 124 wRC+, strong defense at third base, and 46.4 fWAR already accrued in his career, Machado appears to be on a Hall of Fame trajectory, particularly considering the fact that his offensive game has taken a step up in recent seasons. Since the start of the 2018 season, Machado’s wRC+ is 133, and it jumps to 139 when examining the 2020-2022 seasons.
As Stephanie Apstein of Sports Illustrated notes, Machado is looking to sign for double-digit years, a mark Judge barely missed with his nine-year pact this offseason but shortstops Trea Turner and Xander Bogaerts both managed to eclipse. This appears to be a reasonable ask, particularly given that Machado seems likely to be the consensus top free agent in the 2023-24 free agent class after two-way unicorn Shohei Ohtani. A 10-year deal for Machado would take him through his age-40 campaign, an age teams seem to be increasingly willing to sign players through this offseason than in years past.
The Padres, themselves, are at the forefront of this movement toward signing players to longer deals. They signed both Bogaerts and Yu Darvish to deals that will take them beyond their 40th birthdays this offseason, and made similar offers to both Turner and Judge as well. Despite Machado’s plans to opt-out following the 2023 campaign, there appears to be interest in an extension, with the Padres reportedly set to pursue a new deal with Machado this spring, it’s possible that San Diego’s comfort in signing players through their age-40 seasons would give them a leg up in negotiations.
On the other hand, the Padres are in a somewhat difficult payroll situation. They’re a lock to pay into the luxury tax in 2023, already have two long-term megadeals on the books in Bogaerts and Fernando Tatis Jr., and on top of all that, Juan Soto’s free agency is looming following the 2024 season. It seems to be a reasonable question as to whether or not they can maintain their current payroll levels at all, much less add to them as they would need to in order to retain Machado and Soto.
With the stupid money they are throwing around in the big markets, why wouldn’t he?
Alright O’s you know what to do…bring him back for the dynasty run
9 years 270 mil
Not going to get it done. Add 3-4 years and $50+ million.
13 years? For a 31 year old? Probably not. 11 years at $30 million AAV I could see.
If Henderson shows he’s ready to lock down SS then maybe going after Machado would make sense.
I was thinking the same thing. What a boost that would be to the excitement that should be going on in Baltimore. However, I think Gunnar has to be capable of being a full time SS for that to make complete sense. I want to see it happen though.
No right-handed hitter is signing in Baltimore with that idiotic reconfigured leftfield
Even as a Rays fan I support this I know we’re not going after him so why not them
the orioes do no not want him back.no more than the dodgers want him .hes a problem.always has been.let san diego keep him.he wont go to new york.simply because ,he stated and i quote, i will never play for new york.
1. Learn how to type correctly
2. The only person Manny has ever been a problem for is opposing pitchers and baserunners.
2. He never said he would never play for New York.
slimray — A “problem” for opposing teams. Gold Glove defense and MVP offense…that’s a complete player. Teams look for those characteristics…not curmudgeons that had their ears hurt by words of a MVP level player.
bro you can’t even type hahahaha
You are a murderer of Punctuation
Books — You forgot the period at the end of your sentence. Don’t forget to punctuate your own sentences correctly; periods go after the word, no space needed.
Slimray, was this comment meant to be a telegram?
I’d love if the O’s got Manny back!!
But I do wonder how the LF wall would treat him…might make him a fringe 30HR guy rather than fringe 40 HR guy??
O’s – we love Manny. San Diego has truly adopted him… but IF he walks, we would LOVE to see him back in your Orange and Black. That would be the coolest thing ever, that is, IF we can’t retain him. Cheers amigo
Gwynning — Right?! It would be pretty cool! But alas, I don’t think the SD has shown even flinched at player prices, lol. Heavy favorites them Padres.
And what’s not to Love about Manny, right?! He posts every day, Clutch as hell, Gold Glove defense and MVP offense…and plays everyday (that’s that Oriole way stuff of Cal and Adam Jones that Manny soaked up).
Pretty sure SD knows that he’s future HoFer and wants another number in the banners and will pay Manny whatever he wants.
Good on you Gwynning!
can’t blame him, especially if he has another season like last year. He’ll be 31 next off-season so probably a lock for 10/$400.
Thanks for providing his age… seems like the article should have mentioned that. Yea, at 31, opting out is the only choice. Conservatively speaking, he should be able to get 8 years at the same AAV.
Padres Math
8 years X 2 = 16 year contract
So Manny Machado will gat a 16/$416 million deal from the Padres to save on the AAV.
The article does mention it, unless he added it after your comment…
bingo
If he signs for that much, I can only wonder how high Ohtani’s deal would be.
I think $500 million is the absolute floor for Ohtani. I wouldn’t be surprised to see it closer to $600 million. He brings two way value and sells a huge amount of merchandise in Japan. Imagine how much more he would sell if he’s on one of the truly global brands like NYY or LAD. I don’t see any other player with near the potential global star power as Ohtani.
I don’t blame the athletes for trying to make as much as possible, but on the flip side, the idea of “only” 32 million a year is incomprehensible to me. As well as a players career is always literally hanging by a thread…or tendon as it may be. Risk/reward I guess.
Seems like he’s doing really well in San Diego so I’m wondering if maybe this is more geared towards motivating the Padres to re-work the existing deal to add extra years rather than truly looking to move elsewhere.
Assuming Machado opts-out, you have to wonder if he will be a priority for San Diego. Maybe they make a big run at Ohtani or try to lock-up Soto first.
I’m not that impressed from what I saw from Soto last year. Hopefully he’ll play to his potential this year. If not, I would let him go when his contract is up and use the money to keep what they got happy.
When I said there was no way he wouldn’t test the market, Padre fans assured me I was wrong and he’d be a Padre for life. Weird. I’m now torn between what the actual player says and fans on the internet. I didn’t need this drama.
I think they meant he would sign an extension before the opt-out date rolls around or wouldn’t actually change uniforms in FA if it does get to that point. Only the most delusional of Padres fans believe he would simply forego the opt-out ala Nolan Arenado.
Where does it say he won’t sign an extension? That’s what this conversation has been about, either they lock him up forever with a big extension or he tests the market.
He’s just saying here that if he’s on this current contract, he’s opting out. If you want something straight from Machado’s mouth about an extension he literally said at Padres fanfest two weeks ago that he was open to one.
Oh, good. I always trust what a player says at a fanfest. I was nervous there for a second. No player would ever say they’re open to an extension in front of local media, ownership, teammates and the hometown fans paying money to attend basically a feel good autograph pep rally if they weren’t.
Every player is “open to” an extension. Every single one. The pertinent question is how much $ will it take. Though few mention it, “extension” is generally understood to mean “team friendly extension.” Will Manny sign a team friendly extension? I don’t know. He and his wife seem to like it in San Diego and he has a good relationship with Padres owner Peter Seidler as well as the other guys on the team but you could say the same thing about plenty of guys who changed uniforms anyway. Manny probably has more value to the Padres than most other teams given the goodwill he has built up with ownership and fans the last 4 years so I doubt Seidler tries to lowball him.
It’s not just his comments at fanfest to the local media. The Athletic reported last week that they’re working on an extension and MLBTR had an article about it too. It’s been nationally reported that SD is trying to extend him and he’s open to it.
I’m not saying he’s going to sign an extension, because the terms might not be favorable enough for him and he would then walk. I’m just pointing out that your argument here is a straw man and doesn’t even make any sense because even if he opted-in he wouldn’t be a “Padre for life”, he’d be a FA at 36. The whole make him a “Padre for life” thing people have been saying has always contemplated an extension.
All good points. Thanks for the level headed debate. I guess time will tell like it always does.
“…I doubt Seidler tries to lowball him.”
There’s no ‘doubt’ involved whatsoever. Machado has to be offered a deal that he knows equals, or exceeds what he can get on the open market. A lowball offer would be, not only a waste of time and effort, but might also create negative feelings.
But you trust what a reporter from NY said about Machado when she left out a very important sentence that preceded what she chose to tweet.
Machado didn’t JUST say he was open to an extension. He said he would love to sign an extension in SD, wants to be a Padre for life, and have a statue next to Tony Gwynn.
Obviously you have never been to a fanfest in San Diego, because you don’t pay. The tickets are free.
150,000 people showed up for Fanfest at Petco.
In an interview regarding the home they have in Coronado, Yaniee said that it was their forever home. Happy wife is a happy life. If she has any say, Manny is staying in SD.
Seidler does not have to exceed the market to extend Machado. Getting him to MOVE would require exceeding what the Padres are offering, not the other way around.
It depends on what the difference is. If Machado thinks he can get X on the open market, he’s probably not going to take X-Y in an extension, unless Y is fairly minimal. Not saying he wouldn’t re-sign with SD as a FA, But he probably won’t take much less before he knows what he’s worth on the open market.
If Im Padres I let him walk
2 of the Top 5 Prospects Padres have in minors are SS and could always put Tatis back there til one of the kids is ready
Slide Boegarts to 3B and try to extend Soto instead
Having prospects and having elite prospects to replace superstars in only a year are two different things
Bogaets was a MASSIVE overpay….. when he hits .275 the next two or three years averaging 15 HR’s and 70 RBI’s … I cant wait to say….. told you so.
RBI is based on the lineup around him. Not an indicator of individual production
Couldn’t be a dumber thing said. Do some teams have more runners on than others? Yes. But to think that is ludicrous. Some baseball players are clutch and get big hits in big moments Ie. runners on
Over a large enough sample size BA w/ RISP always balances out to career norms.
The big question is Tatis. If Tatis can return to the IF and combine with Boegarts at 3B/SS in some combination, there really isn’t a need for Machado. If he is just an OF now then Machado is kind of needed.
It also depends on how versatile Tatis is. He’s a SS. Bogaerts is a SS. 3b is quite a different thing. That’s why there aren’t too many good defensive SS in baseball. Machado, Arenado, Moncada come to mind. I’m sure there are others, but keep in mind there are only 13 third basemen in the Hof, the least of any position.
If the Padres are smart, which they don’t seem to be, they let him walk. You just got prime Machado on a reasonable 5 year deal. Take the win.
Pretty sure that Carlos Correa is the first player to sign multiple $300 million dollar contracts.
*agreed to multiple $300 million contracts. never actually signed them.
*agreed to. Never actually signed them.
If we adjust for inflation, Alex Rodriguez is the first. Adjusted for inflation, A-Rod probably signed multiple $500 million contracts.
No surprise there
He needed it. PEDs aren’t cheap.
Machado is a mercenary he is about doing for himself and there’s nothing wrong with it.
He knows if the Mets don’t win it all then they will get (even more) desperate and try to sign both him and Ohtani and he probably can get 40 mil a season from them or the Padres or even the Giants and maybe the Dodgers and Yankees will get involved. If he puts up a normal season he will get 40 mil because the need for 3B and SS is so great.
It would be funny if the Mets did sign those two and still couldn’t win a World Series. Would love to see the desperation at that point.
You mean the LOLmets, baseball’s equivalent of Manchester City who’ve bought their way to the top of the Premier League.
Yea Man City has actually won cups recently and have been caught violating over 100 financial rules of the premier league in order to do it.
This isn’t the first time for the Cityzens either. Last time all they had to do was pay a fine. They Could’ve lost points or kicked out of the Champions League but neither happened. I hope they have to pay a stiffer penalty this time.
Interesting how he says that now. There’s no reason to do that unless he’s trying to force then to extend him now. If he gets hurt and doesn’t opt out he won’t be so popular with Padres fans, especially if it prevents them from extending Soto or making another big move.
DeGrom did the same thing last year… Machado went to SD because they paid him.. Most of these guys are mercenaries.. its just business.
Why announce it though? If DeGrom had gotten hurt again and became an albatross he wouldn’t have been so popular with the fans. I dont have issue with exercising the opt out, the team was willing to give it to him, it just seems premature announcing it this way. It seems like he’s trying to force their hand on an extention, if possible, but it could blow up in his face if he gets hurt or regresses. I guess now that I think about it many fans would still hate him.
It cant ‘blow up in his face’. If worst comes to it.. he will just opt in.. In ther meantime maybe the Padres meet his asking price early.
As Wadz said, he hasn’t committed to anything and doesn’t officially have to until next November. If he gets or regresses he can and will opt in.
I’m just not sure about that. If he’s more average than great this year me could probably match the rest of hia contract or even exceed it, but might not opt out. If he gets seriously hurt I highly doubt he does. He likely opts out, but if he becomes more like an above average injury risk, which at his age is perfectly possible, and costs 30m per, he won’t be too popular and broadcasting be plans to opt out will make that worse. I just don’t see the point
Well I do see a point if his camp is trying to get Preller to extend him now.
Bloomer- Let’s see if he’s extended within the next 48, 72 hours… otherwise the issue may be put to bed until the offseason. Either way, I expect Manny to ball out this year. Go Pads
DeGrom did get hurt last season. He still opted out.
“Why announce it though?”
Maybe to avoid having reporters ask the question all season long. And also to set the parameters for a possible extension with SD. The Pads know what his value is on the open market, and he’s letting them know that’s what it will take to extend him.
I dont think that stops them from hounding him
At least it takes one annoying, repetitive question out of the mix.
@bloomquist
If he actually reads anything about the team he plays for, he would know they just structured Wacha’s contract so that they would stay ever so slightly below the Third Tier Tax. He would know that now is not good timing to try to force a new deal, putting them over that tax line and dropping their pick back 10 spots in the draft, at a time they have thinned the farm, trying to put better players around him. If I was in charge of the team, I would follow up his statement by announcing that the team was not interested in restructuring his deal. If he doesn’t think he is being appreciated, he can go elsewhere. I would also announce that we would consider trade offers.
Not necessarily. He could be down for signing a deal structured like Xander and Trea’s, get something like 11/320 today. He takes the risk out of the equation of waiting a year and the Padres end up paying s little less tax this year.
If he wants max years and annual salary, like 10 years or more and 35m+, then yeah, I doubt they would consider that today and would wait for 2023 to play out and reevaluate then.
Big plus in waiting in that you get to see a full year from Soto, unless they know signing Manny today isn’t going to change what they’re willing to offer Soto later.
Uncle Steve loves writing zer0s…
He won’t if Baty lives up to the hype.
I wonder if the Padres let him walk and move Bogaerts to 3B and move Kim back to SS next season? This might be their best chance to reset the Tax and go all in on Soto?
Losing Machado is a major loss to this team though
Kim is only under contract through 2024
I would bet Kim would sign an extension for less than $30MM/year.
Considering the fact that he is not in the same category of player as Machado I am sure you are right about that.
Kim would be in line for a deal that is roughly double his $7 million AAV if he was a FA today.
Just pointing out that if they believe they can extend MM, than they should be able to work around Kim’s current contract ending in 2024, if MM does leave. Of course, if they do extend MM, don’t expect too many other moves, other than subtraction to cut payroll.
Except that Seidler said that after they extend Machado they would like to extend Soto and they know it would take a $400+ million deal to do so.
Padres payroll is not coming down anytime soon.
5y/$250M
The love people have for this kid is a joke. He’s lazy, arrogant,and a quitter. Imagine this as your team captain. Mark my words. He will never win a World Series as a teams star player.
dodgersnation.com/dodgers-manny-machados-shocking-…
He has grown and matured, I personally cant forget his negative presence in 2018 but it seems hes grown as a leader in SD
That was Aug 6th as a member of the Padres buddy. Ive never seen a player quit that badly. He’s a scumbag
so we let 1 play maybe a month define him as a lazy player, what about the ss who failed to back him up properly, what about Profar taunting guys to run to third?
LOL seriously? He’s pretty clearly expecting it’s the left fielder;s play at that point. The LF is coming in with the basepaths in front of him, Machado is going out with his back to the bases. Sorry you don’t understand baseball.
Those guys aren’t your leader. Imagine Derek Jeter behaving that way. Yankees fans didnt love Jeter because he was just great. Yankees fans loved Jeter because he would jump into the stands and break his face trying to catch a fly ball. Machado is a cancer. He’s going to play for half the teams before all is said and done.
A leader? Oh you men like the kind of guy who might call out a young superstar in the dugout because he is acting a fool? Yeah that doesn’t sound like Machado at all…..
Hahahaha. You are hilarious. Every 3rd baseman in baseball is running after that ball after they booted it. Not only are you ignorant but you allow Manny to be a scumbag
I can’t wait for Manny to go to the highest bidder and watch your love of him implode
Yup. Definitely a joke.
Who besides you says Machado is a “cancer?” Certainly no one who’s played with him before. Certainly no one who collects a paycheck from Peter Seidler.
the bigger issue IMO is he shouldve gone to 3B to cover the bag and the SS should be on the ball or the LF, Manny had a job to make sure 3B was accounted for which he failed at that as well.
A leader? Oh you mean like the kind of guy that announces “I’m outta here!” before the season even starts.
You’re a joke dude
Im a joke for liking players who dont quit? LOL. Enjoy that scumbag Machado. They dont pay me to run to first. Wow. What a hero you have.
Ask anyone who has ever actually played with Manny Machado if he is a “scumbag” and see what they say.
Ive got him as a future ranger or Mariner, More likely to be a ranger if Jung proves nothing at all next year and just move him to LF. Mariners are a good pick too cause they need a new franchise 1B and will be a good “we missed Ohtani” guy. That said mets are also players
I love Ohtani, buy the we missed Ohtani teams could end up being a winner especially depending on how bidding for him goes. How does a player like him age?
As a kid, he was a punk. Now well into his career, he has matured into a leader and has really taken care of his rebuilt knee. Would love to see him protect Rafi (1B) and man the hot corner at the Fens. He hits 40 jacks a year if he joins the Nation.
What if he has like a 70 wRC+ next year
Apparently some peiple think that he still opts out. In that scenario, there’s no way he does.
The odds of a 70 wRC+ are extremely slim.
I think if that happens then he’s hurt
Now the White Sox know Machado never would have played out the entire contract had he signed with them before 2019 after supposedly being wooed by his brother in law Yonder Alonso who was on the team then.
Never would have won anything from 19′-23′ then would have left.
They weren’t offering him an opt-out. Jerry Reinsdorf publicly says he doesn’t do opt-outs. Can’t say i blame him.
He doesn’t do spending money either.
Nice avatar homey
Why mention it before the season. What if he goes out there and has a bad season.
So he doesn’t have to answer the same question all season long. Even if he has a poor season by his standards, he’ll still top $150M in guaranteed money over his next contract.
He hasn’t committed to anything yet and doesn’t have to until next November.
Opt outs should be illegal. They give too much power to the player. If not, owners should have opt outs too
They do, they’re called team options.
And how many exist inside a 10 year deal? Not at the end of a 2 year Scott podsedmick one
No agent who wants to keep their job will ever allow their client to have a team opt-out in the middle of a large, long-term contract.
With the exception of Scott Boras representing Carlos Correa. Of course, that was special circumstances with medicals being in question.
Opt outs are a good thing. Keeps them motivated.
Kudos to Machado for putting it out there early.
Not afraid of putting a bit of pressure himself.
Well now, either until he signs an extension or until the season ends, we’ll be entertained by bi-weekly Machado “where does he fit / who has the $ / trade option etc etc” articles….
They’re most certainly not trading him.
1. He has a full NTC
2. Trading arguably your best player in the middle of a playoff race, for lack of a better word, would be completely idiotic.
1) I know
2) won’t stop the articles
I’ll still happily read them as all things baseball (conjecture or not) are good to me. Was just pointing something out….
After spending so much money on fa this off season to build a team capable of winning a WS, losing Machado would be a big blow to the team. I wouldn’t trade him.
He just threw the Padres $150MM back in their face. They could always move him before the season starts. If they get back a 1B, an OF and a SP that combine for less than $30MM, they might be a stronger team.
The only way Machado leaves SD is if Uncle Peter says so. The idea that anyone from NY or anywhere else is going to outbid Seidler for his own star 3B is crazy. Seidler’s track record is basically undefeated when it comes to putting his money where his mouth is.
He he has another monster season he’s gone. Even if he has a season more in line with his career he can get 50 to 100m more.
By gone I mean he opts out, he could stay.
They are already paying him $30/ year. They could theoretically offer him the same deal they gave Bogaerts and actually save money AAV wise. People are forgetting that all these longer term deals (Turner, Bogaerts, Harper etc) came with less AAV. I don’t see teams offering over $30m/ year AND 10 years. The player has to kind of pick one or the other.
I’d guess this is a negotiating tactic on his part to get an extension done before opening day. if the Padres tack on say 5/125 or even 6/150 to his current deal the AAV implications are good. He still gets his $30m annually until he is 35 and then he gets $25m annually until he is 40 or 41.
Maybe he gets hurt in say August kinda bad and the Padre say “you still going to opt out you stupid sob go ahead OPT OUT!”
I got to think running your team like a mob boss is not an effective way to do things
Dumb.
I can’t imagine how they’re going to afford it but I would love to see them extend Machado and then Soto.
And, I’m not even a Padres fan, other than respect for a good organization.
He’s getting g paid a crazy amount of money to play in a nice city with great weather for a contender. Enough money that he couldn’t spend it in his lifetime. I miss loyal players. There are some but it sure is a shrinking field. The pay scale in baseball is ridiculous to begin with but this just blows my mind.
The revenue in baseball is high enough at around $12 billion that all teams can afford at least 2 Machado’s on their roster.
Only if that $12 Billion was shared evenly. It isnt, and its not close.
Some things we know. Mostly from things Manfred has said in the past year and a half.
All teams had revenue over $250 million in 2022 and only 2 teams were that low. We don’t know what teams they were, but I am sure we could all make an educated guess. Hint, the A’s are not one of them.
Teams that rank between #6 and #10 in baseball in revenue, the Braves and Blue Jays, were between $520 and $545 million in revenue in 2022. We don’t know exactly where they fall in that 6-10 range, just that Manfred said that the Braves were not in the top 5.
The Braves and Blue Jays spent between $130 and $134 million per season on non-baseball player payroll related expenses the last 2 seasons.
Padres CEO Greupner said that the Padres were not losing money yet.
That means that if the Padres are spending a similar number on everything else except player payroll, that their revenue had to be $365-370 million in 2022 to not be losing money yet.
If he was referencing 2023 as not losing money yet, their revenue has to be slightly over $400 million.
The Padres are a small market team. Through 2022 they received revenue sharing and a CBT draft pick.
Manny had always been about Manny. Not surprised. It would be hilarious if Oakland gave him 40 AAV and he played the rest of his career losing 100 games a year. It seems money is all the players care about anymore. I figure I’d play for about 1/5 the league minimum but who would want to see me play???
Machado has played for the Dodgers and Padres, maybe it is time for the Giants or Diamondbacks to sign him next? Imagine how good the Diamondbacks could be if they signed Machado and Urias away from their rivals!
it’s all about money. getting less interested by the day about all major sports.
getting less interested by the day about all major sports.
=============================
I’m curious why. Do you feel the same about Hollywood, Broadway, musicians, etc?
I hope he can back his words up with an all star season.Better to let a player leave early then pay prime money for non all star years.
I hate this man. I’m so tired of sports being tainted with greed. I know it’s always been there but I can’t understand not wanting to stay with a club that’s packed with talent, in hopes of winning a ring. $300 million isn’t enough to set up you up forever?
I get it for players that aren’t able to sign mega deals like these, but this is a joke.
lol
He just watched players as old as him with worse numbers get paid into their 40’s. Why would he sit back and let his deal rot and leave 5-6 years of pay on the table?
Spot on. They just handed Bogaerts $280M/11 at age 30. Machado will be one year older, but is a better player. If I were him, I’d be asking for the same treatment as Bogaerts.
Okay, some of you will want to mute me now. (Beat the rush.)
I was raised by very traditional parents who imparted stuff like the “seven deadly sins” on their children. Lots of things stuck with me including the idea that there is a point when enough is enough and constantly asking for more is just greedy and egotistical. I have no sympathy for players making millions who want even more, owners who make millions but that is not enough. Doesn’t matter if it is Machado, Pirates owner Nutting or Jeff Bezos, they all make far more than they need. Greed and pride, values I was taught to avoid.. And yes, it does distract from the game of baseball, a kid’s game.
There was an interesting article about former MLB player John Jaso in the NYTimes on Tuesday. Jaso, who had an okay career, no superstar, bounced around, could have played a few more years, but he said he was tired of whole overconsumption attitude. He respects baseball and is thankful for what it gave him (about $17million), but he decided enough was enough and walked away from the game. Now he claims he spends about six months of the year on his 44ft sailboat.
So, you never asked for a raise at your job?
Jaso was forced to retire because of concussion issues.
I think you meant loser, not leader
MLBTR needs to stop saying Machado will make $150M the last five years – that’s the AAV, not what he’s been paid. Machado made $12M – a pay cut – his first year, and the $18M was spread over the last nine years, at $32M/year.
So he’ll give up $160M by opting out, and since he’s already a 10-year veteran, and will have 5 years with the Padres at the end of the year, he’s giving up 10/5 no trade rights too.
He currently has a partial no trade, so he’ll have to negotiate the full no trade he would otherwise have by not opting out. Word has been Manny and his wife love it in San Diego, and own a waterfront home across the bay from the convention center, with Petco’s light towers beyond.
Given the Padres are about to lose $50M from the Bally TV deal, and the Commissioner has questioned whether the Padres’ spending is sustainable, if Manny wants more money to stay, he probably picked the worst time.
If he really pushes for more money from the Padres, it may be that they can’t or won’t pay it, and he’ll have to leave. Tatis was always ticketed for third base as he fills out, and Kim has played whole seasons in the KBO at third, so as good as he is, he can be replaced.
Lorenzo, that is incorrect. Machado will give up 5/150 by opting out after the 2023 season.
Here is his contract breakdown —
10 years/$300M (2019-28)
signed by San Diego as a free agent 2/21/19
$20M signing bonus, paid within 30 days of MLB approval of the deal
19:$10M, 20-28:$30M annually
Machado may opt out of contract after 2023 season
legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/nl…
The Padres will gain $$$ by Sinclair/Diamond Sports going belly up.
#1, Sinclair is not losing money from the local deal. Bally Sports SD is profitable and the Padres are making millions per season from the 20-25% share they own of the station. Sinclair is losing money because they paid Disney/Fox Sports too much for the shares of the 14 RSN’s they purchased. Based on revenue they were worth $7-8 billion and Sinclair paid nearly $11 billion,
#2, The Padres are part owners of that station. The contract allows them to take over 100% ownership if the RSN is unable to fulfill their end of the deal for a set dollar amount that is based on revenue of the individual station. They will then be able to sell streaming deals in market and blackout rules will no longer apply, so they will make even more money than they do now.
Pads Fans, According to BB Ref, and Sportrac, Machado is owed $32M a year for 2024 through 2028, which adds up to $160M.
His signing bonus was spread out over years that’s why he is getting 32m each of the last 5 years remaining. I have no idea if he has to be on the team still to get that since it was a signing bonus. Padres may have to pay the 2m every year anyways.
Sportrac and BB Ref are wrong. They are taking the $20 million signing bonus and assigning it in equal $2 million parts to each season of the 10 year deal.
Machado is making $30 million per season.
His signing bonus was NOT spread out over the years. It was paid in year one within 30 days of the league approval of the deal.He had that money before he ever stepped on the field as a Padre. Go read the articles about his signing and Cots Baseball Contracts.
Dirtiest player in the league. Argue against it if you will but it was clearly on display in the WS.
Whatever you say Captain Clownshoes
Chase Utley was the dirtiest player in the league…he just didn’t get his scumbag credit for it as much as Machado.
It’s hard to blame a player for exercising a right they have, but the chances are that his actual choice is going to depend on his performance and health. He’s an extremely talented player and he’s been durable. He’s a likely HOF provided he doesn’t crater. Still, as we’ve seen recently, there’s both crazy money…and players who are losing most of all of their seasons. BTW, interesting negotiating tactic. If I were San Diego, I wouldn’t bite.
Padres fans got a bit uncomfortable knowing he’s not going to pull an arenado. No big deal right just sign Ohtani problem solved
Buck Manny reunion in Queens. He gets the money Correa didn’t.
Going to take more than that to get Machado to sign with the Mets.
Buck Manny reunion in Queens. He gets the money Correa didn’t
If does opt out, he’ll be doing the Padres a favor. It will increase their flexibility, allow them to make a top dollar offer to Soto and maybe even get Ohtani!
No he wouldn’t be doing the Padres a favor. His production would just have to be replaced. You’re not replacing his production for less than 5/$160m on the open market.
You replace him with Soto (long term) and/or Ohtani. Soto is younger and far more valuable over the next 6 years. It is simply not sustainable for the Padres to keep Machado and think they can sign Soto and afford Tatis, Xander as well. Personally, I’d prefer Soto over Machado’s age 31-36 seasons. If you disagree that’s fine, we each have a right to an opinion. It just seems delusional to me to suggest Machado, Soto, XB and Tatis are all affordable long term for a team in that market.
Even if that were the case (which it isn’t) Manny still wouldn’t be doing the Padres a favor if he opted out because he would at least have some trade value if not for the opt-out. Opting out deprives the Padres of the ability to extract value from the contract via trade. Trading a player for prospects will always always always always always always always always ALWAYS beat losing him for nothing.
“Even if that were the case (which it isn’t)….” Hmmm….. I guess because you’re legendary, we just need to accept your declaration? Must be nice to be a self-appointed legend and expert.
You’ve lost me though on the “opt out”somehow changing the thinking of Padres and depriving them of the ability to trade the man. First, there is no way Padres trade Manny this year, with or without an opt out, unless they are out of contention for a playoff spot. If, however, they wanted to trade Manny at deadline there would be takers. He has value—unless his performance indicates otherwise.
You said above that Machado would be doing the Padres a favor by opting out because it would allow them to use the money that would otherwise go to him to try and sign Juan Soto and/or Shohei Ohtani. The Padres don’t want to divest themselves of Manny at all. But let’s assume for a second that they did. He still wouldn’t be doing the Padres a favor by opting out. If he doesn’t opt out they can trade him (without eating any money) to some other team that needs a 3B more than they do for top prospects.. What sounds better to you: Trading a player for prospects or losing for nothing? Would you rather have prospects or not have prospects, all other things equal?
Thanks for some additional insight on your thinking. You clearly set a high value on Machado. He’s a fine player who has put up outstanding numbers that past few years and, contrary to my initial assessments when signed, has been worth what the Padres have paid him in the initial years of the deal. That said, my first point has been he will not be worth what the Padres owe him in the final years of the deal. I completely respect that you disagree with that assessment and in fact believe his contract will be good for the team for the duration. Let’s just agree to disagree on that point and allow the next six years to play out.
My second point, which you have seemingly dismissed (but never directly addressed or refuted) is that the Padres cannot afford their existing commitments to Machado, Tatis, XB AND pay Soto what he will be able to get when a free agent. Implicit in this argument is the belief that the Padres, IF forced to choose, would prefer a younger Soto (or Ohtani who will be equally expensive) to Machado. If you believe the Padres are able to add another $40-50 million per year to their payroll for 10-15 years then say so and please explain just how that’s possible. The author of this piece openly suggests that’s a key question. I’d enjoying hearing that analysis. If, on the other hand, you believe Machado is actually a better player in his age 31-36 seasons than a younger Soto, ok. We can just agree to disagree.
Now, on the basic point you have emphatically made (underscored with 9 “always’”), I disagree with your assumption that the opt out in Machado’s contract changes the thinking or behaviors of the Padres. The Padres are just not going to trade Machado this year. They have about a 90% chance of making the playoffs. If they are a playoff team, they would never consider trading Machado with or without an opt out in his contract. I would argue that if they completely implode and are looking to trade talent this year they are far more likely to trade Soto who will be a FA in two years (kind of the equivalent of an opt out..). However, in that scenario, Machado’s opt out actually INCREASES the chances he will be traded this year. Machado was traded by the Orioles in 2018 when he was about to be a FA. Machado might actually be more valuable as a 2 month rental this year than he was in 2018 given his recent performance. He certainly would have value to a contender at the trade deadline. Would that be as much value if he carried 5 years of team control—probably not. The caveat being if he underperforms, gets in clubhouse argument with Tatis or Soto, is injured, those 5 years of “control” might not look nearly as good in July as they do to you in February.
I never said the Padres would trade him now or at the deadline. I’m saying if he couldn’t opt out and they agreed with your assessment that “If does opt out (sic), he’ll be doing the Padres a favor. It will increase their flexibility, allow them to make a top dollar offer to Soto and maybe even get Ohtani!” they would trade him NEXT offseason. They wouldn’t need the opt-out to divest themselves of him and his contract. And by doing this they would be able to get back top prospects rather than losing him for nothing. So the opt-out either forces the Padres to pay Manny more money or robs them of a valuable trade chip. None of those are “doing the Padres a favor.” And you’re dead wrong that he would have less trade value at the deadline without the opt-out. Getting Manny Machado for an extra 5 years for only $150m has CRAZY good value. And if it didn’t, Manny would not opt-out and this entire conversation would be null and void.
No we will not agree to disagree. You’re wrong and in denial. Your view is wrong and always will be. Don’t even try to play like you have a rational view because you don’t. Opt-outs can only hurt teams. If the player is producing at a level where he would “be doing his team a favor if he opted out,” he’s not opting out. Never. 0% of the time. Not even a question.
Bottom line, the only player who has ever “done his team a favor” by opting out is A. J. Burnett with the Phillies. And he isn’t the best example because he knew he wasn’t going to beat his remaining contract but getting to spend his last season before he retired pitching for an actual contender was more important to him than getting every last dollar and he didn’t end up leaving THAT much money on the table. He took a bit of a haircut but he still made more money in his career than probably everyone in this comment section combined ever will.
First move for the Nationals new ownership can be to sign Machado to play alongside his once-and-future teammates Hassell, Abrams, Gore, Wood, Susana.
The Padres quandry is a good problem to have. They have to many superstar contracts to afford them all. Im surprised they paid Darvish already, but whatever. I’d argue it’s going to come down to Soto or Machado. I can’t envision both getting mega deals from the Padres. Or they both do, and Tatis gets shipped off somewhere else.
In reality however, Im also just as confident the Padres owner… CURRENTLY… doesn’t care. He’ll worry about hemorrhaging money later.
If only 85% of the owners were that way…
The Padres aren’t trading Tatis lol delete your account.
Manny has come a long way from his earlier behavior and comments in his career. The way he’s taken a leadership role in San Diego, especially the tough love he showed Tatis in 2021 when Tatis was being childish, really sold me on Manny. It also helps that he has raked both offensively and defensively. San Diego would be foolish to let him walk.
I can see him signing with the Mets next year if they miss out on Ohtani. Would rather have Machado over Correa any day. With that being said, I don’t think its smart to offer him a contract for more than 5 years. I’d be comfortable with a 5 year 40 mil a year contract but he probably wants more than that. I’d pass and develop young talent or trade for someone thats young over signing him but thats just me
i’m objectively rooting for padres to get a championship from these big budget times for them..more power to them..i don’t see how such a small market team can sustain this for very long..and the big difference for arenado is that some othr team is paying huge chunk of his salary..every bit of his salary the rockies pay for is money the cardinals can spend on other parts of a championship caliber team…casual observer here..im a braves fan
If the Mets don’t sign Ohtani than there’s the Mets 3b Machado, move Baty to LF
Love how the NY reporter leaves out a very important part of the interview.
Machado said that if he is not able to come to an agreement with the Padres that he plans to opt out of his contract at the end of the season.
Seems to me that those words that preceded the opting out part are equally if not more important. Guess that is not as click worthy.
Nick, Padres keep proving they are NOT in a difficult payroll situation. Extending Machado long term prior to the 2023 season would likely lower their CBT hit.
Peter Seidler has had cancer and that has been the motivation for his “you can’t take it with you” approach to finances…
Here’s the problem… If he dies of an aneurysm tomorrow, the Padres are screwed unless his estate goes completely into the team. (They still may be screwed after that too.)
This is a storm brewing. So far, it’s contained in a teacup.
Seidler is a finance guy. In other words, he is smart about how he invests money. According to recent comments by Erik Greupner, the Padres CEO, Seidler and the ownership group are not taking money out of their pockets to finance the team right now. With their playoff run last season they had revenue approaching $400 million. Enough that a $250-270 million payroll would not require the ownership group to come out of pocket. A World Series win would add nearly $100 million to that total Winning pays.
People pointing out how Arenado surely regrets not opting out: You haven’t paid attention. He had and has said that it wasn’t necessarily about the money. Arenado legitimately enjoys playing for St. Louis. He makes enough money that he isn’t getting screwed over; the money doesn’t matter. Not every player has the money as their front and center concern. There are examples of this almost every year with the most elite players.
The Cardinals would have paid Nolan even more money if he had opted out.
Probably. But it doesn’t matter because he didn’t care to pursue it.
Hopefully he has a good year. Otherwise, saying this before the season even starts is going to look pretty dumb.
Not really
The greed of these players make me sick. A guy should stay with his team for the remainder of the contract. When did they start inserting “opt out” clauses into these deals?
What is the point of a team signing these ballplayers to a long term so he can get out of in a couple of years as opposed to only signing him for 2 years?
This sport has pivoted way too much in the players favor.
The owners are really getting ripped off.
I think the Padres will keep Manny and let Soto walk. There is no way you can keep both without giving them contracts through their reaching age 65, as much as I’d like to…
There is NO way I would sign Machado. He sounds like he is out for himself and only himself. There is no honor and loyalty anymore.
I guess the Padres aren’t paying him enough.
The players don’t understand that they are destroying the game with their greed!
TV, radio and attendance have sharply declined in recent years in reflection of the fact of baseball is rapidly losing popularity here in the USA!
Soon a lot of teams revenue will not be able to cover skyrocketing payrolls!
Elevating salaries like this will eventually put MLB in bankruptcy!
This is so very sad for me to see the destruction of the game I so dearly love.
That’s a lot of exclamation points!!
What’s his reason for announcing this now? It doesn’t make sense. Say he blows out a knee and hits .249 with 17 homers whatever, will he still opt out?
It’ll be interesting if the Padres extend Machado or wait to see about Ohtani. With Soto’s free agency looming in 2024, they’ll need to lock in at least one of those three to sustain their current run toward the top of the NL West.
and everyone says the owners are the greedy ones..
It’s possible for them both to be greedy, this isn’t an apocalyptic battle between good and evil.
And to all those who think opt-outs benefit teams by saving them from the player’s eventual decline years, you’re wrong. You will notice how every single player with an opt-out either doesn’t use it (Eric Hosmer, Giancarlo Stanton), re-ups with their original team for more money (Stephen Strasburg, Yoenis Cespedes), their original team tries to re-up them for more money but is unsuccessful (Zack Greinke, Xander Bogaerts) or the player’s original team would have at least been able to trade him for prospects if not for the opt-out (Nick Castellanos). In none of those scenarios did the team benefit from the player having an opt-out. In fact, the Hosmer/Stanton situation is the only one where they even broke even from it.
Manny Machado will be either scenario 2 or scenario 3.
There are no words to describe this greed. Now we know why it costs $300 for a family of 4 to go to a ball game.
Stupid, stupid, stupid
Be kind of funny if the Orioles opened their wallets and re-signed Manny. Manny and Gunnar would make a heck of a tandem.
Been thinking this ever since the Padres signed him. During their rebuild the Orioles were better off spending that $30m a year on prospects/player development than on Manny Machado but after 2023 if Manny doesn’t sign an extension they can bring him back on the open market. Is Gunnar projected to stay at shortstop long-term?
Legendary, miltpapa, 1975 reds want to join a fantasy baseball auction league?
What on Earth possessed him to announce this now?
So, if he bats .130 and slugs .258 for 6 weeks and then breaks his leg, he’s opting out?
Him announcing this is not legally binding. Probably wants to put the pressure on Padres ownership to pay up now rather than waiting and seeing if he can sustain his 2022 performance.
Fair point that he might be willing to look like a schmuck and eat his words…for hundreds of millions of dollars.
What was I thinking?
Does it force their hand at all, though? Given how much they have spent on others players…and the fact that Preller always wants to add, I actually think SD would be fine with him walking.
If he is producing at a level where they “would be fine with him walking” then he’s opting in. Look at the history of players with opt-outs for proof of that.
At 31, I’m saying that even after a good season, they’d be happy to wave goodbye with a smile, just to reallocate and sign (or trade for) some other shiny new thing.
I doubt getting hundreds of millions more even if he repeats last year, I’m thinking more like 50 to 100, but doesnt change the point
No they would not. They can not replace Manny’s production (both now and in the future) on the open market for less than 5/$160m. And if they could, he would not opt out. Again, name one player who opted out and his team was happy he opted out. I’ll wait.
Manny Machado a year from now.
Jurickson Profar.
😀
@66TheNumberOfTheBest BRAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAACK! Wrong! Thanks for playing!
@CrikesAlready He has to sign for less than $6.5m guaranteed for that to be true and somehow I don’t think Manny Machado will end up having to settle for less than he opted out of.
Harambe pretty much nailed it. The Padres just offered to give Manny Machado 10/$255m. If they are willing to pay him that they most certainly wouldn’t be happy if he walked away from 5/$150m.
@66TheNumberOfTheBest So much for your THEORY about the Padres “happily waving goodbye” if Manny Machado opts out of his contract LOL! They just extended him for 11/$350m! Clearly they WOULDN’T have been happy if he opted out of 5/$150m!
@CrikesAlready Looks like the Padres are not happy Profar opted out. The Rockies would have traded the Padres something for him if he didn’t opt out. But with the opt-out the Padres have to pay hum $1m to go pay for a division rival.
Quite possibly doing the team a favor. His defense will continue to decline and I wouldn’t be surprised if a couple years down the line he’s a slightly above average league hitter at third base. I hope a team I like doesn’t give him some crazy 10 year contract.
He had a 159 OPS+ last season and you think that in 2 years he will regress to league average? Typical regression in his age group would put him around a 137-138 OPS+ in 2 years.
If he signs an extension with the Padres before the 2023 season, in the 7th or 8th season of the deal he should be about league average as a hitter.
That’s probably not his true talent level. 130-135+ seems more likely this year, declining from there. It’s not impossible, and maybe he found a new gear, but it’s more likely he just had one of those years. To me him regressing would look more like a 115+ year.
That’s still one heck of a player
Machado has had a 147 OPS+ the last 3 seasons. Between that and his 159 OPS+ last season is his true talent level because it’s what he has produced.
His avg ops+ for his career is is 126. Was as low as 110 in 2019. While I don’t expect a rapid decline let’s not act like 159 is the norm.
His recent performance is 147 OPS+ over the last 3 seasons. That is far more and indicator of his talent level than his career average and it is what teams will be looking at when they start making bids to sign him in FA.
That would be a great way to figure things if signing him to a 3 year contract going forward. If signing him to a 10 year contract, look at the last 10. Then figure what you get will be less than that.
He definitely isn’t going to avg 147 of the life of his next contract. He will be 31 when he opts out. One could make a real case by then his best seasons could already be gone. He should still have 4-5 good years left before the real decline starts in. Now if you forecast what is he worth in year 6-10-11-12-13? Those last few years is isn’t going to be worth more then 10m (that’s if he is even about avg at age 40-41-42-43). So if he is worth say 40m the next 5 years then 15m the next 7 years after that then he would be worth about a max of 12/305m. Which is about what I think he is going to be worth.
They were talking about what base any regression would start at. Are you always this obtuse styme?
Starting regression at 159 OPS+, they already gave you an answer.
Starting at 147 OPS+ he would reach about league average (102.3 OPS+) at the level of regression they used in the 6th season of the deal.
If you use WAR he would be league average in the 8th season of the deal.
No. He is not doing the team a favor by opting out. They aren’t replacing his production for less than 5/$160m in free agency.
Hopefully the Orioles will re-sign him.
As a Padres fan, If he wants Judge Money, I think they should let Manny walk and Extend Soto and Kim.
I’m not interested in Ohtani
In a Perfect world they extend Manny and Soto
Imagine what Stephanie Apstein was wearing when she wrote that article.
With the additions of guys like Hader, Soto, and Bogaerts, the Padres might have their best team ever, and could have a legitimate chance of reaching the World Series. So why would Machado, making the obscene amount of $30MM per, even mention opting out? Does he really care more about getting an even more outrageous contract than playing for a pennant-contending team and the loyal fans who support it? Owners, players, and agents share the blame for ruining MLB – and all professional sports –.with their seemingly limitless narcissism and greed.
Don’t forget the fans!
As I often say, money almost always trumps winning or team loyalty. There will occasionally be a guy like Jose Ramirez who signs for a hometown discount, but it’s rare.
Not a fan of this at all. Doesn’t Manny know he have to lie with proverbial platitudes such as “I’m only focused on the upcoming season” or “I hope to finish the rest of my career here?” It’s baseball free agency 101!
Forgot my favorite “I love it here.”
They are at least 5 teams I could see being extremely involved on Manny – Padres, Giants, Cubs, and both NY teams. The Rangers, Angels, and Mariners may kick the tires. That’s a lot with such a small group of top free agents.
Rangers? Why? They have Josh Jung. Sure, they waste money like idiots on duplicates (2 shortstops, 4 starters, etc.), but they aren’t that reckless, as far as I know. Why wouldn’t they have just gone for Arenado the first time?
This does have Angels written all over it, doesn’t it?
How long is Rendon under contract for?
Greed is good. In this case for the Giants.
This dude is an ass. Always has been.
lol
Zaidi doesn’t need to consider trying to sign Machado after 2023 season. Machado may be considered as a “superstar” but he isn’t the player Giants need. Especially playing at 31 this season and wanting double years contract.
Much rather give Casey Schmitt the 3B opportunity to develop into the talent the Giants are projecting.
Not saying the giants are signing him. Saying it’s good for the giants because he likely goes to AL east
You’re setting yourself up for disappointment when he signs extension with Pads ( which is more likely than him going elsewhere)
Born and raised in America. Made all his money here. Plays for The DR in WBC. Traitor.
Er, DR is in America.
Dominican Republic is an independent country. You may be thinking of Puerto Rico. For the record, I don’t care where these guys play.
Whoosh. That sound is the point going over your head.
The DR is not in the US, but it is definitely in the Americas.
Nobody cares about the WBC. They need to do away with it so these guys can get to spring training to get ready for the real thing.
Stands are always full and the players love it. So obviously people care.
Dirtbag player. Please keep him on the West Coast and in the National League.
Dirtbag lol! So just because he’s not on your team that makes him a dirtbag. I see.
Machado to the Yankees is the biggest baseball trade in the last 50 years. San Diego trades Machado,Snell,Hader,and Soto to the Yankees for Stanton,Severino,Torres,German,Peraza,Donaldson AND Doninguez.San Diego gets rid of over 60 million in salery this year , and probably saving over 300 million on soto in the future.The Yankees finally opening up there pocket book and going over the tax so now they can really compete with Houston
woof
Oh I was wearing my Money Machado Padres jersey on the bus just now and people were sniggering and now I know why.
If he has a major injury or gets busted for PEDs he will change his mind!
Do you all think Nick used the word WARRENT instead of DESERVE in the article for “Machado’s certainly performed at a level to this point in his career that would warrant such a contract.” just wondering?
Not a surprise, but probably not the best response.
I thought from the beginning that this was the Padres likely preferred outcome when they signed him. Get five seasons during his peak 20s, and then let him leave.
Only in baseball can only an older player moving farther away from their prime be worth more than a younger player in their prime.
Silly response. I don’t like Machado, but there is no doubt he is a top-tier player.
It’s a formality … Machado’s going to the Mets next year.
let him walk
Since my earliest memories are of great players who often had to find work in the off season or certainly, retirement, just to get by, today’s salaries are mind numbing.
Guess we’ll all look back fondly on this era when the dawn of salaries which make players billionaires arrives
M.L.B was of course ragging on him for announcing his intention’s, but it was the right thing to do. Now he won’t be bothered with questions all year. There is big money out there and everyone knew he was going to do so.
I’m so sick & tired of these darn “opt-outs”. I blame Scott Boras for this trend. How about giving the team the “opt-out”, if you suck, they cut your a$$ !!
Thanks for some additional insight on your thinking. You clearly set a high value on Machado. He’s a fine player who has put up outstanding numbers that past few years and, contrary to my initial assessments when signed, has been worth what the Padres have paid him in the initial years of the deal. That said, my first point has been he will not be worth what the Padres owe him in the final years of the deal. I completely respect that you disagree with that assessment and in fact believe his contract will be good for the team for the duration. Let’s just agree to disagree on that point and allow the next six years to play out. My second point, which you have seemingly dismissed (but never directly addressed or refuted) is that the Padres cannot afford their existing commitments to Machado, Tatis, XB AND pay Soto what he will be able to get when a free agent. Implicit in this argument is the belief that the Padres, IF forced to choose, would prefer a younger Soto (or Ohtani who will be equally expensive) to Machado. If you believe the Padres are able to add another $40-50 million per year to their payroll for 10-15 years then say so and please explain just how that’s possible. The author of this piece openly suggests that’s a key question. I’d enjoying hearing that analysis. If, on the other hand, you believe Machado is actually a better player in his age 31-36 seasons than a younger Soto, ok. We can just agree to disagree.
Now, on the basic point you have emphatically made (underscored with 9 “always’”), I disagree with your assumption that the opt out in Machado’s contract changes the thinking or behaviors of the Padres. The Padres are just not going to trade Machado this year. They have about a 90% chance of making the playoffs. If they are a playoff team, they would never consider trading Machado with or without an opt out in his contract. I would argue that if they completely implode and are looking to trade talent this year they are far more likely to trade Soto who will be a FA in two years (kind of the equivalent of an opt out..). However, in that scenario, Machado’s opt out actually INCREASES the chances he will be traded this year. Machado was traded by the Orioles in 2018 when he was about to be a FA. Machado might actually be more valuable as a 2 month rental this year than he was in 2018 given his recent performance. He certainly would have value to a contender at the trade deadline. Would that be as much value if he carried 5 years of team control—probably not. The caveat being if he underperforms, gets in clubhouse argument with Tatis or Soto, is injured, those 5 years of “control” might not look nearly as good in July as they do to you in February.
“The Padres, themselves, are at the forefront of this movement toward signing players to longer deals.”
For crying out loud, learn how to use commas. This is not correct at all. There should be zero commas in this sentence.