Padres superstar Manny Machado today confirmed to reporters, including Chelsea Janes of The Washington Post, that he plans on opting out of the remainder of his contract following the 2023 season. Machado signed his current 10-year, $300MM agreement with San Diego ahead of the 2019 season, and in opting out would leave five years, $150MM left on the table from his current contract.
This decision is no real surprise, as that $150MM figure appears to be one Machado should have no trouble beating on the open market next offseason, provided he remains healthy. After an offseason that saw top free agent Aaron Judge sign a $360MM deal that begins in his age 31 season, it seems like a reasonable bet that Machado, who would also be entering free agency ahead of his age 31 season, might become the first ever player to sign multiple $300MM contracts in his career, though he obviously would not be playing through the entirety of his first one.
Machado’s certainly performed at a level to this point in his career that would warrant such a contract. The runner-up for the NL MVP award in 2022, Machado has six All Star appearances, five top-5 MVP finishes, two Gold Gloves, and a Silver Slugger award under his belt. With a career 124 wRC+, strong defense at third base, and 46.4 fWAR already accrued in his career, Machado appears to be on a Hall of Fame trajectory, particularly considering the fact that his offensive game has taken a step up in recent seasons. Since the start of the 2018 season, Machado’s wRC+ is 133, and it jumps to 139 when examining the 2020-2022 seasons.
As Stephanie Apstein of Sports Illustrated notes, Machado is looking to sign for double-digit years, a mark Judge barely missed with his nine-year pact this offseason but shortstops Trea Turner and Xander Bogaerts both managed to eclipse. This appears to be a reasonable ask, particularly given that Machado seems likely to be the consensus top free agent in the 2023-24 free agent class after two-way unicorn Shohei Ohtani. A 10-year deal for Machado would take him through his age-40 campaign, an age teams seem to be increasingly willing to sign players through this offseason than in years past.
The Padres, themselves, are at the forefront of this movement toward signing players to longer deals. They signed both Bogaerts and Yu Darvish to deals that will take them beyond their 40th birthdays this offseason, and made similar offers to both Turner and Judge as well. Despite Machado’s plans to opt-out following the 2023 campaign, there appears to be interest in an extension, with the Padres reportedly set to pursue a new deal with Machado this spring, it’s possible that San Diego’s comfort in signing players through their age-40 seasons would give them a leg up in negotiations.
On the other hand, the Padres are in a somewhat difficult payroll situation. They’re a lock to pay into the luxury tax in 2023, already have two long-term megadeals on the books in Bogaerts and Fernando Tatis Jr., and on top of all that, Juan Soto’s free agency is looming following the 2024 season. It seems to be a reasonable question as to whether or not they can maintain their current payroll levels at all, much less add to them as they would need to in order to retain Machado and Soto.
With the stupid money they are throwing around in the big markets, why wouldn’t he?
Nothing else to say but that. He doesn’t strike me as dumb. As in dumb enough to NOT opt out
Nolan Arenado, this could have been your life.
I am worried about how Nolan is going to get by on $35 million a year playing where he wants to play.
He got the big money already and he’s treated like royalty.
$35 mil per year to play on a team that is competitive 99% of the time. Arenado’s living the Life of Riley compared to many other guys
Just don’t throw up and in on him, eh? He might cry and throw a tantrum again.
I am certainly not worried, but it’s always fun when we see things play out that are so comparable to see what could have been behind Door #2. We all knew he was walking away from a lot of money, now we may get to find approximately just how much. Feels like a scene from A CHRISTMAS CAROL, SCROOGED or IT’S A WONDERFUL LIFE.
If nothing else, you should be feel proud that he knowingly turned down a lot of money, but interested to know how much.
Arenado’s choosing not to opt out of his contract immediately cemented his ability to make as much money in endorsements and paid appearances as he wants in St Louis. Not just while he’s a Cardinal but for the rest of his life.
He’s that popular in St, Louis. That’s never going to change. I think he gets the fact that he’s not going to be getting endorsement opportunities in Colorado. In the long run,I think he’ll make more money by staying in St. Louis.
Interesting take, no doubt. Do you think Machado, with quite a bit more guaranteed (presumably) from his next contract – not get within a stone’s throw of endorsement opps in a larger market (than STL)?
No one’s taking a shot at STL or its robust fan base, but to think Arenado would make-up the $150-200M+ more than what Machado stands to profit from on his next contract, in addition to Machado’s marketing opps presumably from being in a larger market, is quite lofty. I mean, there’s only so many car dealerships to peddle, right?
Arenado still has $144 million coming for the next 5 years. He will be very likely get another contract after that. He’s an elite player who works incredibly hard to stay in shape. I see him aging well.
I don’t see Machado getting $300 million for the next 5 years. He may get it for 10 years. We won’t know how much Arenado gave up until his career is over. I don’t think he gave up anywhere near $150 – $200 million.
Correa got an offer of 12/$315M at 28 y/o to play out of position at 3B for NYM. If Machado has another 7.4 fWAR season in ’23, don’t you think Cohen would offer something similar to Machado and come out with what he was hoping Correa would be for them? Especially if they don’t aspire to the expectations he has for them this year.
Considering the lack of 3B options in the near future, you could see a robust bidding war, especially if LAD turns it’s attention away from Ohtani and the same ramifications as this year are not in place for them going over tax threshold. They could see Machado as a less expensive upgrade to Ohtani — that they’re also comfortable with from him being with them already — while weakening their rivals (SD).
You’re still assuming Arenado gets nothing more after his current contract. That’s not happening unless there’s a career ending injury. I think it’s more likely he gets a nice extension going into 2027 to bump the salary for that year. The Cardinals have shown with Molina and Wainwright they will take care of their core players.
I’ve thought for a long time that the rate of salary inflation has to stop. I now realize I have no idea of how long they will continue to rise. At the current inflation rates, Arenado might be making more at the end of his career than those signing long term deals now. We don’t know. We can’t know until we see the results.
CardsFan57
Excellent comment sir. Well thought out.
I never thought of that. Well done and I agree. A nice thinking outside the box comment.
Arenado made $240k in endorsements last season. He is apparently not taking much advantage of that “opportunity” in St Louis. I can find charity events he has done, but can’t find any paid speaking engagements he did. Do you know of any?
Arenado chose not to opt out for two reasons. #1, an opportunity to be with a contending team consistently. #2, pettiness. He said in an interview on MLB Network radio that part of his decision to not opt out was that it would cost the Rockies more money. $21 million more.
He’s not interested in extra money now. Arenado is laser focused on playing and training. He will likely be much more interested when he retires. He will have as much opportunity as he wants. He may never want the opportunity. It’s still there if he wants it.
Arenado is signed through 2027. If he had opted out after the 2021 season he would have been looking at a 10 year deal in excess of $300 million. Instead he will earn $179 million for 2022 to 2027.
I am sure that Arenado will get a huge deal going into his age 37 season that will make up for the $120 million or so he lost by not opting out. /s
The Padres will likely offer Manny that many years and that much money before the 2023 season even starts.
It will cost Cohen much more than that to get Manny to move to NYC.
So you are trying to say that Arenado will get an extension at age 37 that will make up for the $120+ million he lost by not opting out?
A $40 million AAV deal at age 37? Seriously?
That’s not what I said. I did say it’s possible if salary inflation continues at the same level. I said I don’t know what the future holds. Five years ago I didn’t think it possible they would be handing out north of $40 million a year to 40 year old pitchers but here we are.
I wonder with Nolan if not opting out had anything to do with the Rockies being off the hook for the 31m they owe the Cards these next 4 years if he were to do so.
Take less to stick it to the old boss… love it!
If that played into his thinking at all, it was more about helping his current team than hurting his old team. I don’t hear any animosity towards Colorado coming from Arenado. He simply didn’t think they were trying to do what they needed to do to win so he wanted to go where he had a chance to make the playoffs.
The tax hit in California is one reason to opt out – especially if you can play in Texas or Florida and keep more money in your pocket.
That’s certainly…a theory.
How he will ever survive on the $27 million and $15 million he will make in 2026 and 2027 is a mystery. No Eggs For You, Arenado!
PadrePapi, Arenado said it was a part of his decision making regarding the opt out.
If you didn’t hear any animosity then you were not paying attention.
The tax rate in NYC is higher than in San Diego. That would count out the Mets and Yankees if taxes are even a consideration.
Do you really see the Marlins or Rays signing any player for $300 million?
Rangers maybe, but with Bregman in Houston they won’t be a part of bidding for Machado. If Jung crashes and burns then maybe the Rangers are bidding for his services, but even then its doubtful with over a half billion in that infield already.
That’s awesome, thanks for confirming!
Don’t feed the trolls especially with a non baseball take on a baseball website by someone who probably got kicked off Twitter.
No record of Arenado ever saying that.
I didnt notice his name before responding. You are probably right about Twitter
He’s gonna get his money and continual playoff exposure? Nolan Arenado has life made in “baseball heaven” on a gravy train with biscuits for wheels
He’s gonna get his money and continual playoff exposure? Nolan Arenado has life made in “baseball heaven” on a gravy train with biscuits for wheels….
I’d have to hear that interview before I would believe he did it to cost Colorado money. It’s far more likely he said he wanted to save St. Louis money. I’ve never heard him say anything like what you claim he said in that interview. I searched around and I can’t find it. I’m not not buying it unless I hear it myself. I’m sure some people have spun it that way.
Seriously, even with inflation, will the market start valuing position players age-36+ as worthy of short-term record-setting AAVs? ATL let Freeman walk because of a sixth year. And he doesn’t have the kind of miles Arenado has. Sure, Arenado could beat the odds, but we don’t have a position player comp for such a thing. DH Nelson Cruz comes to mind as offensive prowess age-36+, but he doesn’t have the defense that Arenado is known for. Even with Cruz, he was making only $14M/season when he had 3 top-10 MVP finishes, 3 Silver Sluggers, 3 All-Star appearances at age-36 or older. Will inflation by 2028 and add in some defense from Arenado equal a record-setting AAV contract? Highly, highly doubtful. Most teams are going to want him to DH if his offense is still there, even to preserve him and reduce risk to get most value out of their investment, taking away from some of his ability to maximize his earning potential.
Ratioed
Brooks Robinson was still a plus defender at 40. It was his offense that disappeared. Either way on any of this, Arenado didn’t lose $150 – $200 million by not opting out unless he suffers a career ending injury. Well know how much 10 years from now.
The 15 million in 2027 is why I think the contract will be reworked prior to 2027. The Cardinals know they owe him for not opting out. They won’t rework the contract until the Colorado money ends. The last payment on that is in 2026.
Why not? Look at deGrom.
Only people from Missouri would think making $35million and living in Misery would be equal to living anywhere else (except ohio and Florida) and making the same amount.
It’s like someone offering you $20 vs someone offering $20 to take a dump in your mouth. I’d rather have the same amount, a dump-free mouth, and spend time in a state that isnt well-known for drunk driving and meth use.
Wait you think SD is a bigger market? Hmmm. Why did the Chargers move to L.A.? Of yeah the L.A. part. You’re joking right?
Please don’t mention Correa. He’s not broke but probably broken. Your comp doesn’t work. The most hated player in baseball was the TWINS only hope at a big time player for how long? Not 10 years. Maybe 6
Let hit walk after the season, who cares! Then try and extend Soto. He and Tatis is a nice duo for many years to come, and younger.
Am I wrong or is the $ per year pretty close? How often do 10 year contracts play out anyway? Isn’t that what this article started out as? Now it’s Arenado and what he didn’t do. Is about to be Manny and what he did do. Move on. STL WINS MORE WS BEFPRE AND AFTER YOUR COMMENTS
Door number two…
Or championships?
It’s funny to me
Padres threw in the whole farm
And have yet to fly a Pennant
That I think is the simplest way to explain not opting out. Unabashedly team friendly.
Nolan is obviously taking a risk of waiting for the extension. I would have understood the opt out especially with the market he would have had, Dude must really like the organization. There are absolute limits on an extension with injury, morality, personal conflicts, legal issues, ect.
Honestly curious of his financial advisor’s analysis and scenario projections.
IF you’re talking about my mention of Correa — that was not a comp. That was a statement of reported fact and his deal with NYM outlining why you could expect a contract offer from Cohen and the Mets in a scenario.
We all can admit Correa at 3B (even if deal went through) would not be Machado at 3B, so stands to reason that there is a scenario where Machado could get a big deal from Cohen if they underperform offensively and Cohen stews in his press box.
I don’t see the Dodgers making a run for Machado. Machado was a pain in the ass when he was in LA. He’s a dirty player, self proclaimed non hustler and not a good role model for younger guys. He had friction with the FO when in LA.
Arenado made his decision to stay before the market went crazy this offseason. I believe he made the correct choice from a lifestyle point of view, but he likely left more additional guaranteed money behind than he anticipated. Great deal for he Cards as the Rockies will still pay $16MM toward his 2023 salary.
Arenado and his agent underestimated the market. He could of doubled his current contract. He has zero chance of making that money back. Maybe he doesn’t care, maybe he does. Nobody knows what’s in his head.
I’m not assuming Arenado gets nothing, but I’m saying unless the market changes how they value age-37+ position players, I can’t see Arenado getting a ~$50M AAV for age-37-39 seasons, knowing it’s probable you see Machado get 9 years/$300M (through his age-39 season) from a new deal with a good 2023, which would be an additional $140M than if he did not opt out. Even with inflation, I don’t see a laser-focused Arenado getting $45-$50M AAV like he’s a 38-39 y/o SP (Verlander, Scherzer). For as much as people like to discredit starting pitchers because they don’t “play every day”, in this case, it can prolong their careers past position players and the toll of playing the cornerstone 150 games/season for a dozen-plus years like will be the case with Arenado.
Padres have 2 guys at SS. One could play 3b in the future. Paying guys to play to 40 is stupid money. You don’t think the Angels and Tigers regret the final years of Puhjols and Cabrera
Brooks was the greatest Oriole of all time until Cal Ripken came along. I would like to see Manny come back to the Baltimore Orioles and lead them to the World Series. All it takes is money.
One might fear that teams will react conservatively to the turmoil with some of the regional sports networks. If they lose that gravy train they may not be willing to throw out 10+ year deals.
actually they may but it will be a far smaller overall payday
Local TV is only a gravy train for a few teams. For most it’s just a middling part of revenue and for some (not a small number) it doesn’t even pay for one contract like Manny’s.
All 30 teams also split national TV revenue equally, and that’s a sizeable amount of money.
National not local. Teams like the Yankees, Mets and Dodgers have massive local TV deals.
The smallest local TV deal would pay for Manny’s contract and a couple of MLB average salaries on top of it. When the Marlins signed their new TV deal that started with the 2021 season, Manfred said that the smallest local TV deals were now over $40 million.
Its about $71 million from national TV, plus the streaming deals (Apple, etc…), plus subscription services like MLB.TV and MLB Extra Innings.
all tv revenues are going down more people are cutting the cords,even myself ,and im over 50.its dirt cheap to stream.bally owes the padres 140 mil.belieave its gonna hurt them more then any other team.the padres ownership was counting on that money.the players will get payed, but billionaires did not become billionaires by loosing money.if mlb takes over they will not re-emburse the money.they will make a new contract and the teams using bally will be lucky if they get 50 mil a year,from mlb on local broadcast.the cash cow is coming to an end.most younger fans believe its monopoly money the owners are use-ing.its real money and the padres did not expect this.most teams will be fine.one example is the rays. they were fiscally responsable.other teams like the yanks, orioles and boston were smart enough to own their own networks.
Take in mind though that MLB has taken away the middleman (that eats into profit margins) of cable and created MLB Network and MLB.tv as an alternative many, including myself for 4 years now, will turn to instead of cable.
Those cable contracts are going to become less profitable as the older fans, used to cable, die off, and if even sooner with the Bally’s bankruptcy, MLB.tv starts to offer a tier that allows blackout free viewing of MLB games.
Well Padres there goes your season. Manny’s attention is OFFICIALLY on his wallet. This along with the distractions from the doper brat (Tatis) will surely sink the Padres.
Tony Gwynn and Tim Flannery would not have acted like this.
Announcing it prior to the season does seem like a curious move. Most guys keep things like that under their hat.
DeGrom did not keep it under his gat. Did not impact anything.
dugmet
How can you say that it did not impact anything? Even the slightest comment could have impacted players enough to change the outcome in a single game which was the difference between the Mets being division winners as opposed to Atlanta being the division winner.
Correa never said he was opting out last year til the end of the season, but everybody knew he was going to. I think Machado is doing what Judge did this off-season. He played teams like the Giants to get a bigger deal from the yanks. He never had any intention of going anywhere else. By saying so early that he’s going to opt out, Machado is putting pressure on the Padres to give him a longer and probably more expensive contract. He’s playing them just like Judge did.
DeGrom didn’t pitch enough for that to be valid for him
Nah, Manny is aware of the Padres payroll situation. If he wanted a contract early from SDP, he picked a terrible time, as they are up against the third tier. He’s letting his perspective suitors have early notice. Padres have the ability to put Kim back at SS and move Boegarts to 3B next year. Dropping back 10 spots in the draft if they sign him, after having him throw $30MM a year back in their face are two reasons to let him walk. MM just continuing to be the selfish player he always has been.
They can extend him beyond 2023 not affecting CBT at all fit this season..his new deal could be for 24 and beyond
What Machado has left on his current contract, IMHO, is about his worth in today’s market. But whoever gives him over and about that remaining amount, deserves the headache they will eventually suffer from this self serving….
Right because he’s been such a headache throughout his career right? He’ll get more than $150 million on the open market easily.
@Dogbone Look at what Judge, Turner, Bogaerts and Seager got. Manny Machado is better than any of those dudes and the youngest of the bunch, Corey Seager, is only 2 years younger than Manny. And how in tarnation is Manny Machado a self serving anything who will give ANYONE headaches? He certainly hasn’t done that in San Diego.
If Seager stays healthy he will outhit Machado.
As much as it seems like a selfish move to say it now in reality he might as well get it out of the way because he’s going to get asked about it all season anyway. Put it to rest now and move on to something else
Rsox, exactly. Instead of it being a distraction with reporters asking about it all season, its over. Now if the Padres don’t extend him prior to the season started, he doesn’t have to talk about it again. He can just play.
Opening up a box of worms now will not allow it to be put to rest. If you want to put it to rest, trade him now, so you don’t lose him for nothing but a pick after the 4th round.
Wrong as usual Stymeed. Cutting it off at the pass means its done until the season is over.
Your naive if you think the media won’t ask just because you’ve said something.
Let me know how that works out for him. I’m betting the press won’t let it go.
they could trade him to miami.they would have to eat 20 of the 30 mil.but the padres could get some good young pitching back.and let manny be cancer on another team.
And Miami would gut their pitching depth for a one year rental why?
Right cause guys in contract years aren’t extra motivated and are bound to throw in the towel, just look at Aaron Judge.
SD front office has made it clear in recent interviews, this week in fact, that they’d like to focus now on Manny’s extension and get it done before season starts.
This is the second time Manny has said he’s opting out. It doesn’t matter what the SD front office wants if Manny wants a bidding war. They may be able to get him to sign an extension but they will have to overpay a great deal in my opinion. He’s making it pretty clear that he wants to go to market.
Machado has said that if he does not sign an extension that he will opt out.
You probably have more information locally. Twice now the national press has simply quoted him as saying he’s opting out.
Adding another 5 years and another $150-200 million to the current deal probably keeps him from opting out.
With Devers off the market Shohei Ohtani stands as the only real big ticket free agent next winter so Machado would at least add a second superstar to the list if a deal can’t be worked out with the Padres before seasons end
SP Urias, Nola, Sonny Gray, Snell, and Yamamoto say we is High Ticket FA too
And don’t forget the kid from KBO CF MVP he is coming to America in 24
Othani and possibly Machado aint the only game in town next offseason
Gray and Snell are second tier at best. The foreign market is always a gamble and Ohtani/Machado are known big money commodities. Urias is interesting and i wonder if the Dodgers will let him reach free agency or sign an extension before the season ends, same with Nola and the Phillies
Nola and Urias will be a top level FA and if he repeats 2022 so will Snell. Not on the level of Ohtani, but then no one is.
Didn’t think this one through did you? If it’s his walk year, he’s going to be the most motivated person on that team.
And who DOESN’T think with their wallet? You do, I do, and obviously someone who stands to make 5-10 MILLION more dollars a year does.
These guys eat, drink and sleep baseball and have since they were kids. They are the top 1% of the top 1% in their career fields. I love it when we (you and me) think we know how they “should” act, while we sit on a couch, maybe hit the gym a couple times a week and watch professional elite machines perform.
You can be sad he’s leaving your team, but I’d bet my life savings you’d do the same.
@CardsFan21 I don’t hit the gym a couple times a year.
Well if Manny has decided he wants to opt out after this year, I think his mind will be on performance and creating even more value. The Padres should enjoy a good last season out of him and throw all their cards in and try to win it all. Isn’t that the idea in this sport?
That’s because this was not a thing when they played. The sport and the contracts and their structures have changed dramatically since then. Grow up.
Cardsfan21: Maybe players used to eat, drink and sleep baseball when they were kids through college, but now they eat, drink and sleep money.
Of which they are paid for by still being absolutely elite, at an insanely competitive job. If you or I could replace them, they wouldn’t be able to opt out and get tens of millions more per year.
It’s pretty normal to want more money to do the same job, even if that means switching companies
Smart people opt out all day dude. It’s way too much money to pass up.
Smart teams don’t give out NTCs and opt-outs, then are surprised when they use them. That’s like giving your spouse a “hall pass” then want a divorce when they use it.
NTCs and opt-outs are now part of the negotiation. 10-15 years ago organizations didn’t have to consider those nearly as much. A team can choose to pay more AAV and avoid opt-outs, or they can trade them for a more team-friendly deal. They are part of the evolution of MLB contracts.
No trade clauses aren’t new, and they usually don’t hurt teams anywhere near as badly as opt-outs do. Besides, most players with long-term deals gain an automatic NTC partway through the contract anyway with the 10-and-5 rule, and there are many examples of players being willing to waive their NTC in the right situations.
@RunDMC I guess that explains why I’m single.
Wait whose mad?
Because…. he’ll likely underperform knowing he’ll be a free agent? That makes no sense….
Eric Show would never. Craig Lefferts wouldn’t dream of it. Bruce Hurst is rolling in his grave, and he’s probably not even dead.
Yankee Bound
Could be, but the Yanks already have one cement weight firmly tugging on the team’s future named Aaron Judge. Judge is a ticking time bomb of injuries and Machado would complete the set of cement boots that sinks the Yanks for an extended stretch of years.
They made a huge mistake, imho, with not acquiring Machado the first time. Same with Cole, same with others. If the Yanks do get him then they are going to pay premium dollar for much less of his prime. It would’ve been more fiscally responsible to overpay when he’s younger rather than pay for him at 31, even at market value. It would be another glaring example of Yankees (Cashman) saving money now to significantly overpay later.
@Books- It’s funny that you say that, because I really don’t want Machado on the Yankees, but this is his lifelong dream to play in NY, for the Yankees. So I think it definitely happens. Is Manny worth $35-40 million annually? I wouldn’t pay him that.
If the Pads pay him what he wants, that would likely take them out of the Ohtani sweepstakes, although I still think Ohtani stays put. If he leaves the Angels, their slim chance of being a contender won’t happen.
@avenger65- I think Ohtani will end up on the Dodgers or the Mets. I would probably rather play for the Padres, then the Dodgers or the Mets. But just like Machado it will come down to dollars, where Ohtani goes. Ohtani would be better off staying on the West Coast with teams like the Angels, Dodgers, or the Padres. I don’t think he would thrive pitching in NY.
I don’t see NY getting either if only two of Peraza, Volpe, or Cabrera work out halfway decently. If Hal/Cashman have show us one overarching theme over the past 5 years it’s that winning is second to what they perceive (I stress that) as fiscal responsibility to their stakeholders.
I would say the cement weight on the Yankees is Stanton.
Whose Cole?
he stated 5 years ago he would never play for new york.so is manny lying or a man that will stick to his word?
Dustin Pedroia is on the phone, Who Gives a F***?
Maybe the Mets have found their 3rd baseman
You would think $300 million dollars and being the franchise player on a team poised to do great things would be enough.
SMFH…
Alright O’s you know what to do…bring him back for the dynasty run
9 years 270 mil
Not going to get it done. Add 3-4 years and $50+ million.
13 years? For a 31 year old? Probably not. 11 years at $30 million AAV I could see.
If Henderson shows he’s ready to lock down SS then maybe going after Machado would make sense.
I was thinking the same thing. What a boost that would be to the excitement that should be going on in Baltimore. However, I think Gunnar has to be capable of being a full time SS for that to make complete sense. I want to see it happen though.
No right-handed hitter is signing in Baltimore with that idiotic reconfigured leftfield
Even as a Rays fan I support this I know we’re not going after him so why not them
the orioes do no not want him back.no more than the dodgers want him .hes a problem.always has been.let san diego keep him.he wont go to new york.simply because ,he stated and i quote, i will never play for new york.
1. Learn how to type correctly
2. The only person Manny has ever been a problem for is opposing pitchers and baserunners.
2. He never said he would never play for New York.
slimray — A “problem” for opposing teams. Gold Glove defense and MVP offense…that’s a complete player. Teams look for those characteristics…not curmudgeons that had their ears hurt by words of a MVP level player.
bro you can’t even type hahahaha
You are a murderer of Punctuation
Books — You forgot the period at the end of your sentence. Don’t forget to punctuate your own sentences correctly; periods go after the word, no space needed.
Slimray, was this comment meant to be a telegram?
I’d love if the O’s got Manny back!!
But I do wonder how the LF wall would treat him…might make him a fringe 30HR guy rather than fringe 40 HR guy??
O’s – we love Manny. San Diego has truly adopted him… but IF he walks, we would LOVE to see him back in your Orange and Black. That would be the coolest thing ever, that is, IF we can’t retain him. Cheers amigo
Gwynning — Right?! It would be pretty cool! But alas, I don’t think the SD has shown even flinched at player prices, lol. Heavy favorites them Padres.
And what’s not to Love about Manny, right?! He posts every day, Clutch as hell, Gold Glove defense and MVP offense…and plays everyday (that’s that Oriole way stuff of Cal and Adam Jones that Manny soaked up).
Pretty sure SD knows that he’s future HoFer and wants another number in the banners and will pay Manny whatever he wants.
Good on you Gwynning!
can’t blame him, especially if he has another season like last year. He’ll be 31 next off-season so probably a lock for 10/$400.
Thanks for providing his age… seems like the article should have mentioned that. Yea, at 31, opting out is the only choice. Conservatively speaking, he should be able to get 8 years at the same AAV.
Padres Math
8 years X 2 = 16 year contract
So Manny Machado will gat a 16/$416 million deal from the Padres to save on the AAV.
The article does mention it, unless he added it after your comment…
bingo
If he signs for that much, I can only wonder how high Ohtani’s deal would be.
I think $500 million is the absolute floor for Ohtani. I wouldn’t be surprised to see it closer to $600 million. He brings two way value and sells a huge amount of merchandise in Japan. Imagine how much more he would sell if he’s on one of the truly global brands like NYY or LAD. I don’t see any other player with near the potential global star power as Ohtani.
I don’t blame the athletes for trying to make as much as possible, but on the flip side, the idea of “only” 32 million a year is incomprehensible to me. As well as a players career is always literally hanging by a thread…or tendon as it may be. Risk/reward I guess.
Its the same as any professional field.. The majority of people if they had the opportunity to opt out and sign a more lucrative deal.. where they can choose.. they will.. Machado just happen to be elite in a professional field that makes gonzo money….
It’s really not the same as any professional field. These guys are worrying about how many millions they’ll have. The blue collar worker is worrying about real issues like supporting their family and providing all the needs.
I mentioned the gonzo money difference….
The leverage aspect to make more money is the same almost anyone in any field would execute if they had the opportunity.
DTD: It’s not really an “issue” if said workers don’t live above their means. Sadly, 90% of Americans do just that.
I agree with you, however I also accept the fact that some people are more skilled and/or educated than me and entitled to better compensation for it. For example, for many years I worked in EMS, and the ER docs I worked under made more than me for obvious reasons. MLB players are the top 1% of people in their career in the world, and as long as it’s a multi billion dollar industry I won’t begrudge them the millions. Although I’m still upset with Ozzie Smith for taking the Cardinals job that 10 year old me had my eyes on…
Agreed. Also, username checks out.
The blue collar worker is one of millions that can do his job. Machado is in the top 3-4 3B in the world doing a job where there are only 30 positions in the world.
If you were in the top 3 or 4 in the world at your job, any job, you would be making huge dollars, too.
Pads fan, you’re arguing against something I never brought up. Try to stay on topic.
It really is an issue, has nothing to do with living above their means.
DTD, “It’s really not the same as any professional field.” and then you mentioned blue collar workers. Try to remember what you said or at least scroll up.
I never mentioned in the context you’re speaking about. Read.
You didn’t mention context? Could have fooled me.
10 years at 31 seems incomprehensible to me too.
Miss this offseason…? Major deals are trending into longer years.. lower AAVs.. Padres did this 2-3 times already.. They are paying Boegarts and Darvish into their 40s..
Didn’t miss it…just think it’s foolish.
Can’t wait for the fool that takes the job after Preller is canned… he be like…. damn I’m screwed.
Only if Seidler is not the owner.
The big market teams do this because they are up against these tax levels. The more teams up against it means fewer teams that can spend. Most teams will not be comfortable giving out a $30MM+/year contract, even to a player of MMs ability. The best LH relief pitcher, Chafin, had to settle for a one year and option for the same amount he opted out of. He was only getting 6.5MM. I think walking away from a $30mm/yr guarenteed, is a risk. He will likely get a larger total contract, but may lose that 30 per average. I don’t think the market will receive him as well as he expects.
He didn’t commit to anything. If he gets injured or struggles in 2023 he can still opt in.
These opt out clauses are specifically designed to lock in security while keeping the ability to cash in even more later. Amazing how often teams go for it. All risk is on the team.
I would think the teams are calculating that into what they think the player is worth. If the player opts out the team likely got more value than expected before it happens. I’m not sure if their calculations are correct, but I suspect thats the intention. I’m surprised we don’t see contracts that look more like the one Yusei Kikuchi signed with the Mariners. Not the exact deal, but shorter contracts at a higher AAV followed by a team and player option at different rates. Pretty sure the player union would freak out if there was too much of that.
When a player has an opt-out in his contract, it is generally assumed that he left some money on the table in exchange for it. No GM or PBO could possibly be dumb enough to say “Oh! But you also have to have a player opt-out halfway through the contract or no deal!” if the player has already agreed to a contract with the exact same years and dollar figures but with no opt-out. The question is “how much” did the player leave on the table in exchange for the opt-out? For me personally, it would have to be a lot.
If Machado puts up a 5.0 bWAR in 2023, a great bet considering he had a 6..8 WAR in 2022 and 5.0 WAR in 2021, and then he opts out after this season, the Padres will have received approximately $188 million in value from his on-field production for a $150 million price tag. That seems a good deal for them.
Players typically begin to regress in production in their age 31 seasons, so its unlikely Machado repeats his production from 2019-2023 over the next 5 years.
With WAR at $9.2 million per point in 2023 the chances of Machado being worth $400 million from 2024-2033 are slim. But $300 million is a realistic amount.
Starting at 6.0 WAR, the average of his 2021 and 2022 seasons, at the 7% regression per season that is typical for age 31-35 players, Machado would produce approximately 24 WAR and be worth about $220.8 million based on the 2023 value of a point of WAR.
The regression curve from age 36-40 is steep. Even starting at 4.2 WAR in the baseline 2028 season, by 2033 he is around 0.4 WAR. His total WAR over that period is about 9.0 and his value for that 5 year stretch is in the $82.8 million based on the 2023 value of WAR.
33 WAR over that 10 year period at $9.2 million per point of WAR puts his value at $303.6 million for those 10 years.
The Padres offered him an extension that would have paid him $255 million for 2024-2033. They were a little low.
If you believe Nightengale, which I never do since he has rarely proven correct, Machado asked for a deal that would have paid him $400 million for 2024-2033. About $94 million or nearly 30% in excess of his realistic value over that time period.
What seems likely is Machado asked for a deal that would pay him $295 million from 2024 to 2033. Add 2023 to that and he would be paid $325 million for 11 season. A very fair deal for both parties.
I would think a reasonable projection would have him around 5 WAR/600 or so. Hes been healthy but at his age hes likely to start losing playing time soon too. The Padres known this. Their offer reflects those numbers as far as I can tell. They have similar thoughts on his value to them. I think he can and probably gets 300/10 on the market but I think more like 240/8 would be more normal, except the market for stars has changed. They’re getting paid more and longer than they used to even accounting for overall salary inflation in baseball.
That would be a good projection for the next couple of seasons.
Why don’t you question the amount the teams are making to afford these salaries?? If I knew I was generating $x amount of dollars for a club (name recognition, wins shares generated against team revenue growth, etc) I’d ask for my fair share.
If the padres were given the opportunity to vid his contract if he payed poorly, they would take it.
If Manny leaves, Boegarts to 3b and Kim to SS in 2024 and possibly Jackson Merrill there in 2025 assuming kim opts out. Pretty good depth for the left side of the infield when you could pencil that out without even factoring in Tatis playing SS. They’ve left the door open for Tatis to be playing in the dirt again so definitely wouldn’t be surprised if that’s what happens in that scenario.
Seems like he’s doing really well in San Diego so I’m wondering if maybe this is more geared towards motivating the Padres to re-work the existing deal to add extra years rather than truly looking to move elsewhere.
Assuming Machado opts-out, you have to wonder if he will be a priority for San Diego. Maybe they make a big run at Ohtani or try to lock-up Soto first.
I’m not that impressed from what I saw from Soto last year. Hopefully he’ll play to his potential this year. If not, I would let him go when his contract is up and use the money to keep what they got happy.
When I said there was no way he wouldn’t test the market, Padre fans assured me I was wrong and he’d be a Padre for life. Weird. I’m now torn between what the actual player says and fans on the internet. I didn’t need this drama.
I think they meant he would sign an extension before the opt-out date rolls around or wouldn’t actually change uniforms in FA if it does get to that point. Only the most delusional of Padres fans believe he would simply forego the opt-out ala Nolan Arenado.
Where does it say he won’t sign an extension? That’s what this conversation has been about, either they lock him up forever with a big extension or he tests the market.
He’s just saying here that if he’s on this current contract, he’s opting out. If you want something straight from Machado’s mouth about an extension he literally said at Padres fanfest two weeks ago that he was open to one.
Oh, good. I always trust what a player says at a fanfest. I was nervous there for a second. No player would ever say they’re open to an extension in front of local media, ownership, teammates and the hometown fans paying money to attend basically a feel good autograph pep rally if they weren’t.
Every player is “open to” an extension. Every single one. The pertinent question is how much $ will it take. Though few mention it, “extension” is generally understood to mean “team friendly extension.” Will Manny sign a team friendly extension? I don’t know. He and his wife seem to like it in San Diego and he has a good relationship with Padres owner Peter Seidler as well as the other guys on the team but you could say the same thing about plenty of guys who changed uniforms anyway. Manny probably has more value to the Padres than most other teams given the goodwill he has built up with ownership and fans the last 4 years so I doubt Seidler tries to lowball him.
It’s not just his comments at fanfest to the local media. The Athletic reported last week that they’re working on an extension and MLBTR had an article about it too. It’s been nationally reported that SD is trying to extend him and he’s open to it.
I’m not saying he’s going to sign an extension, because the terms might not be favorable enough for him and he would then walk. I’m just pointing out that your argument here is a straw man and doesn’t even make any sense because even if he opted-in he wouldn’t be a “Padre for life”, he’d be a FA at 36. The whole make him a “Padre for life” thing people have been saying has always contemplated an extension.
All good points. Thanks for the level headed debate. I guess time will tell like it always does.
“…I doubt Seidler tries to lowball him.”
There’s no ‘doubt’ involved whatsoever. Machado has to be offered a deal that he knows equals, or exceeds what he can get on the open market. A lowball offer would be, not only a waste of time and effort, but might also create negative feelings.
But you trust what a reporter from NY said about Machado when she left out a very important sentence that preceded what she chose to tweet.
Machado didn’t JUST say he was open to an extension. He said he would love to sign an extension in SD, wants to be a Padre for life, and have a statue next to Tony Gwynn.
Obviously you have never been to a fanfest in San Diego, because you don’t pay. The tickets are free.
150,000 people showed up for Fanfest at Petco.
In an interview regarding the home they have in Coronado, Yaniee said that it was their forever home. Happy wife is a happy life. If she has any say, Manny is staying in SD.
Seidler does not have to exceed the market to extend Machado. Getting him to MOVE would require exceeding what the Padres are offering, not the other way around.
It depends on what the difference is. If Machado thinks he can get X on the open market, he’s probably not going to take X-Y in an extension, unless Y is fairly minimal. Not saying he wouldn’t re-sign with SD as a FA, But he probably won’t take much less before he knows what he’s worth on the open market.
If Im Padres I let him walk
2 of the Top 5 Prospects Padres have in minors are SS and could always put Tatis back there til one of the kids is ready
Slide Boegarts to 3B and try to extend Soto instead
Having prospects and having elite prospects to replace superstars in only a year are two different things
Bogaets was a MASSIVE overpay….. when he hits .275 the next two or three years averaging 15 HR’s and 70 RBI’s … I cant wait to say….. told you so.
RBI is based on the lineup around him. Not an indicator of individual production
Couldn’t be a dumber thing said. Do some teams have more runners on than others? Yes. But to think that is ludicrous. Some baseball players are clutch and get big hits in big moments Ie. runners on
Over a large enough sample size BA w/ RISP always balances out to career norms.
The big question is Tatis. If Tatis can return to the IF and combine with Boegarts at 3B/SS in some combination, there really isn’t a need for Machado. If he is just an OF now then Machado is kind of needed.
It also depends on how versatile Tatis is. He’s a SS. Bogaerts is a SS. 3b is quite a different thing. That’s why there aren’t too many good defensive SS in baseball. Machado, Arenado, Moncada come to mind. I’m sure there are others, but keep in mind there are only 13 third basemen in the Hof, the least of any position.
If the Padres are smart, which they don’t seem to be, they let him walk. You just got prime Machado on a reasonable 5 year deal. Take the win.
Pretty sure that Carlos Correa is the first player to sign multiple $300 million dollar contracts.
*agreed to multiple $300 million contracts. never actually signed them.
*agreed to. Never actually signed them.
If we adjust for inflation, Alex Rodriguez is the first. Adjusted for inflation, A-Rod probably signed multiple $500 million contracts.
No surprise there
He needed it. PEDs aren’t cheap.
Machado is a mercenary he is about doing for himself and there’s nothing wrong with it.
He knows if the Mets don’t win it all then they will get (even more) desperate and try to sign both him and Ohtani and he probably can get 40 mil a season from them or the Padres or even the Giants and maybe the Dodgers and Yankees will get involved. If he puts up a normal season he will get 40 mil because the need for 3B and SS is so great.
It would be funny if the Mets did sign those two and still couldn’t win a World Series. Would love to see the desperation at that point.
You mean the LOLmets, baseball’s equivalent of Manchester City who’ve bought their way to the top of the Premier League.
Yea Man City has actually won cups recently and have been caught violating over 100 financial rules of the premier league in order to do it.
This isn’t the first time for the Cityzens either. Last time all they had to do was pay a fine. They Could’ve lost points or kicked out of the Champions League but neither happened. I hope they have to pay a stiffer penalty this time.
Interesting how he says that now. There’s no reason to do that unless he’s trying to force then to extend him now. If he gets hurt and doesn’t opt out he won’t be so popular with Padres fans, especially if it prevents them from extending Soto or making another big move.
DeGrom did the same thing last year… Machado went to SD because they paid him.. Most of these guys are mercenaries.. its just business.
Why announce it though? If DeGrom had gotten hurt again and became an albatross he wouldn’t have been so popular with the fans. I dont have issue with exercising the opt out, the team was willing to give it to him, it just seems premature announcing it this way. It seems like he’s trying to force their hand on an extention, if possible, but it could blow up in his face if he gets hurt or regresses. I guess now that I think about it many fans would still hate him.
It cant ‘blow up in his face’. If worst comes to it.. he will just opt in.. In ther meantime maybe the Padres meet his asking price early.
As Wadz said, he hasn’t committed to anything and doesn’t officially have to until next November. If he gets or regresses he can and will opt in.
I’m just not sure about that. If he’s more average than great this year me could probably match the rest of hia contract or even exceed it, but might not opt out. If he gets seriously hurt I highly doubt he does. He likely opts out, but if he becomes more like an above average injury risk, which at his age is perfectly possible, and costs 30m per, he won’t be too popular and broadcasting be plans to opt out will make that worse. I just don’t see the point
Well I do see a point if his camp is trying to get Preller to extend him now.
Bloomer- Let’s see if he’s extended within the next 48, 72 hours… otherwise the issue may be put to bed until the offseason. Either way, I expect Manny to ball out this year. Go Pads
DeGrom did get hurt last season. He still opted out.
“Why announce it though?”
Maybe to avoid having reporters ask the question all season long. And also to set the parameters for a possible extension with SD. The Pads know what his value is on the open market, and he’s letting them know that’s what it will take to extend him.
I dont think that stops them from hounding him
At least it takes one annoying, repetitive question out of the mix.
@bloomquist
If he actually reads anything about the team he plays for, he would know they just structured Wacha’s contract so that they would stay ever so slightly below the Third Tier Tax. He would know that now is not good timing to try to force a new deal, putting them over that tax line and dropping their pick back 10 spots in the draft, at a time they have thinned the farm, trying to put better players around him. If I was in charge of the team, I would follow up his statement by announcing that the team was not interested in restructuring his deal. If he doesn’t think he is being appreciated, he can go elsewhere. I would also announce that we would consider trade offers.
Not necessarily. He could be down for signing a deal structured like Xander and Trea’s, get something like 11/320 today. He takes the risk out of the equation of waiting a year and the Padres end up paying s little less tax this year.
If he wants max years and annual salary, like 10 years or more and 35m+, then yeah, I doubt they would consider that today and would wait for 2023 to play out and reevaluate then.
Big plus in waiting in that you get to see a full year from Soto, unless they know signing Manny today isn’t going to change what they’re willing to offer Soto later.
Uncle Steve loves writing zer0s…
He won’t if Baty lives up to the hype.
I wonder if the Padres let him walk and move Bogaerts to 3B and move Kim back to SS next season? This might be their best chance to reset the Tax and go all in on Soto?
Losing Machado is a major loss to this team though
Kim is only under contract through 2024
I would bet Kim would sign an extension for less than $30MM/year.
Considering the fact that he is not in the same category of player as Machado I am sure you are right about that.
Kim would be in line for a deal that is roughly double his $7 million AAV if he was a FA today.
Just pointing out that if they believe they can extend MM, than they should be able to work around Kim’s current contract ending in 2024, if MM does leave. Of course, if they do extend MM, don’t expect too many other moves, other than subtraction to cut payroll.
Except that Seidler said that after they extend Machado they would like to extend Soto and they know it would take a $400+ million deal to do so.
Padres payroll is not coming down anytime soon.
5y/$250M
The love people have for this kid is a joke. He’s lazy, arrogant,and a quitter. Imagine this as your team captain. Mark my words. He will never win a World Series as a teams star player.
dodgersnation.com/dodgers-manny-machados-shocking-…
He has grown and matured, I personally cant forget his negative presence in 2018 but it seems hes grown as a leader in SD
That was Aug 6th as a member of the Padres buddy. Ive never seen a player quit that badly. He’s a scumbag
so we let 1 play maybe a month define him as a lazy player, what about the ss who failed to back him up properly, what about Profar taunting guys to run to third?
LOL seriously? He’s pretty clearly expecting it’s the left fielder;s play at that point. The LF is coming in with the basepaths in front of him, Machado is going out with his back to the bases. Sorry you don’t understand baseball.
Those guys aren’t your leader. Imagine Derek Jeter behaving that way. Yankees fans didnt love Jeter because he was just great. Yankees fans loved Jeter because he would jump into the stands and break his face trying to catch a fly ball. Machado is a cancer. He’s going to play for half the teams before all is said and done.
A leader? Oh you men like the kind of guy who might call out a young superstar in the dugout because he is acting a fool? Yeah that doesn’t sound like Machado at all…..
Hahahaha. You are hilarious. Every 3rd baseman in baseball is running after that ball after they booted it. Not only are you ignorant but you allow Manny to be a scumbag
I can’t wait for Manny to go to the highest bidder and watch your love of him implode
Yup. Definitely a joke.
Who besides you says Machado is a “cancer?” Certainly no one who’s played with him before. Certainly no one who collects a paycheck from Peter Seidler.
the bigger issue IMO is he shouldve gone to 3B to cover the bag and the SS should be on the ball or the LF, Manny had a job to make sure 3B was accounted for which he failed at that as well.
A leader? Oh you mean like the kind of guy that announces “I’m outta here!” before the season even starts.
You’re a joke dude
Im a joke for liking players who dont quit? LOL. Enjoy that scumbag Machado. They dont pay me to run to first. Wow. What a hero you have.
Ask anyone who has ever actually played with Manny Machado if he is a “scumbag” and see what they say.
Ive got him as a future ranger or Mariner, More likely to be a ranger if Jung proves nothing at all next year and just move him to LF. Mariners are a good pick too cause they need a new franchise 1B and will be a good “we missed Ohtani” guy. That said mets are also players
I love Ohtani, buy the we missed Ohtani teams could end up being a winner especially depending on how bidding for him goes. How does a player like him age?
As a kid, he was a punk. Now well into his career, he has matured into a leader and has really taken care of his rebuilt knee. Would love to see him protect Rafi (1B) and man the hot corner at the Fens. He hits 40 jacks a year if he joins the Nation.
What if he has like a 70 wRC+ next year
Apparently some peiple think that he still opts out. In that scenario, there’s no way he does.
The odds of a 70 wRC+ are extremely slim.
I think if that happens then he’s hurt
Now the White Sox know Machado never would have played out the entire contract had he signed with them before 2019 after supposedly being wooed by his brother in law Yonder Alonso who was on the team then.
Never would have won anything from 19′-23′ then would have left.
They weren’t offering him an opt-out. Jerry Reinsdorf publicly says he doesn’t do opt-outs. Can’t say i blame him.
He doesn’t do spending money either.
Nice avatar homey
Why mention it before the season. What if he goes out there and has a bad season.
So he doesn’t have to answer the same question all season long. Even if he has a poor season by his standards, he’ll still top $150M in guaranteed money over his next contract.
He hasn’t committed to anything yet and doesn’t have to until next November.
Opt outs should be illegal. They give too much power to the player. If not, owners should have opt outs too
They do, they’re called team options.
And how many exist inside a 10 year deal? Not at the end of a 2 year Scott podsedmick one
No agent who wants to keep their job will ever allow their client to have a team opt-out in the middle of a large, long-term contract.
With the exception of Scott Boras representing Carlos Correa. Of course, that was special circumstances with medicals being in question.
Opt outs are a good thing. Keeps them motivated.
Kudos to Machado for putting it out there early.
Not afraid of putting a bit of pressure himself.
Well now, either until he signs an extension or until the season ends, we’ll be entertained by bi-weekly Machado “where does he fit / who has the $ / trade option etc etc” articles….
They’re most certainly not trading him.
1. He has a full NTC
2. Trading arguably your best player in the middle of a playoff race, for lack of a better word, would be completely idiotic.
1) I know
2) won’t stop the articles
I’ll still happily read them as all things baseball (conjecture or not) are good to me. Was just pointing something out….
After spending so much money on fa this off season to build a team capable of winning a WS, losing Machado would be a big blow to the team. I wouldn’t trade him.
He just threw the Padres $150MM back in their face. They could always move him before the season starts. If they get back a 1B, an OF and a SP that combine for less than $30MM, they might be a stronger team.
The only way Machado leaves SD is if Uncle Peter says so. The idea that anyone from NY or anywhere else is going to outbid Seidler for his own star 3B is crazy. Seidler’s track record is basically undefeated when it comes to putting his money where his mouth is.
He he has another monster season he’s gone. Even if he has a season more in line with his career he can get 50 to 100m more.
By gone I mean he opts out, he could stay.
They are already paying him $30/ year. They could theoretically offer him the same deal they gave Bogaerts and actually save money AAV wise. People are forgetting that all these longer term deals (Turner, Bogaerts, Harper etc) came with less AAV. I don’t see teams offering over $30m/ year AND 10 years. The player has to kind of pick one or the other.
I’d guess this is a negotiating tactic on his part to get an extension done before opening day. if the Padres tack on say 5/125 or even 6/150 to his current deal the AAV implications are good. He still gets his $30m annually until he is 35 and then he gets $25m annually until he is 40 or 41.
Maybe he gets hurt in say August kinda bad and the Padre say “you still going to opt out you stupid sob go ahead OPT OUT!”
I got to think running your team like a mob boss is not an effective way to do things
Dumb.
I can’t imagine how they’re going to afford it but I would love to see them extend Machado and then Soto.
And, I’m not even a Padres fan, other than respect for a good organization.
He’s getting g paid a crazy amount of money to play in a nice city with great weather for a contender. Enough money that he couldn’t spend it in his lifetime. I miss loyal players. There are some but it sure is a shrinking field. The pay scale in baseball is ridiculous to begin with but this just blows my mind.
The revenue in baseball is high enough at around $12 billion that all teams can afford at least 2 Machado’s on their roster.
Only if that $12 Billion was shared evenly. It isnt, and its not close.
Some things we know. Mostly from things Manfred has said in the past year and a half.
All teams had revenue over $250 million in 2022 and only 2 teams were that low. We don’t know what teams they were, but I am sure we could all make an educated guess. Hint, the A’s are not one of them.
Teams that rank between #6 and #10 in baseball in revenue, the Braves and Blue Jays, were between $520 and $545 million in revenue in 2022. We don’t know exactly where they fall in that 6-10 range, just that Manfred said that the Braves were not in the top 5.
The Braves and Blue Jays spent between $130 and $134 million per season on non-baseball player payroll related expenses the last 2 seasons.
Padres CEO Greupner said that the Padres were not losing money yet.
That means that if the Padres are spending a similar number on everything else except player payroll, that their revenue had to be $365-370 million in 2022 to not be losing money yet.
If he was referencing 2023 as not losing money yet, their revenue has to be slightly over $400 million.
The Padres are a small market team. Through 2022 they received revenue sharing and a CBT draft pick.
Manny had always been about Manny. Not surprised. It would be hilarious if Oakland gave him 40 AAV and he played the rest of his career losing 100 games a year. It seems money is all the players care about anymore. I figure I’d play for about 1/5 the league minimum but who would want to see me play???
Machado has played for the Dodgers and Padres, maybe it is time for the Giants or Diamondbacks to sign him next? Imagine how good the Diamondbacks could be if they signed Machado and Urias away from their rivals!
it’s all about money. getting less interested by the day about all major sports.
getting less interested by the day about all major sports.
=============================
I’m curious why. Do you feel the same about Hollywood, Broadway, musicians, etc?
I hope he can back his words up with an all star season.Better to let a player leave early then pay prime money for non all star years.
I hate this man. I’m so tired of sports being tainted with greed. I know it’s always been there but I can’t understand not wanting to stay with a club that’s packed with talent, in hopes of winning a ring. $300 million isn’t enough to set up you up forever?
I get it for players that aren’t able to sign mega deals like these, but this is a joke.
lol
He just watched players as old as him with worse numbers get paid into their 40’s. Why would he sit back and let his deal rot and leave 5-6 years of pay on the table?
Spot on. They just handed Bogaerts $280M/11 at age 30. Machado will be one year older, but is a better player. If I were him, I’d be asking for the same treatment as Bogaerts.
Okay, some of you will want to mute me now. (Beat the rush.)
I was raised by very traditional parents who imparted stuff like the “seven deadly sins” on their children. Lots of things stuck with me including the idea that there is a point when enough is enough and constantly asking for more is just greedy and egotistical. I have no sympathy for players making millions who want even more, owners who make millions but that is not enough. Doesn’t matter if it is Machado, Pirates owner Nutting or Jeff Bezos, they all make far more than they need. Greed and pride, values I was taught to avoid.. And yes, it does distract from the game of baseball, a kid’s game.
There was an interesting article about former MLB player John Jaso in the NYTimes on Tuesday. Jaso, who had an okay career, no superstar, bounced around, could have played a few more years, but he said he was tired of whole overconsumption attitude. He respects baseball and is thankful for what it gave him (about $17million), but he decided enough was enough and walked away from the game. Now he claims he spends about six months of the year on his 44ft sailboat.
So, you never asked for a raise at your job?
Jaso was forced to retire because of concussion issues.
I think you meant loser, not leader
MLBTR needs to stop saying Machado will make $150M the last five years – that’s the AAV, not what he’s been paid. Machado made $12M – a pay cut – his first year, and the $18M was spread over the last nine years, at $32M/year.
So he’ll give up $160M by opting out, and since he’s already a 10-year veteran, and will have 5 years with the Padres at the end of the year, he’s giving up 10/5 no trade rights too.
He currently has a partial no trade, so he’ll have to negotiate the full no trade he would otherwise have by not opting out. Word has been Manny and his wife love it in San Diego, and own a waterfront home across the bay from the convention center, with Petco’s light towers beyond.
Given the Padres are about to lose $50M from the Bally TV deal, and the Commissioner has questioned whether the Padres’ spending is sustainable, if Manny wants more money to stay, he probably picked the worst time.
If he really pushes for more money from the Padres, it may be that they can’t or won’t pay it, and he’ll have to leave. Tatis was always ticketed for third base as he fills out, and Kim has played whole seasons in the KBO at third, so as good as he is, he can be replaced.
Lorenzo, that is incorrect. Machado will give up 5/150 by opting out after the 2023 season.
Here is his contract breakdown —
10 years/$300M (2019-28)
signed by San Diego as a free agent 2/21/19
$20M signing bonus, paid within 30 days of MLB approval of the deal
19:$10M, 20-28:$30M annually
Machado may opt out of contract after 2023 season
legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/nl…
The Padres will gain $$$ by Sinclair/Diamond Sports going belly up.
#1, Sinclair is not losing money from the local deal. Bally Sports SD is profitable and the Padres are making millions per season from the 20-25% share they own of the station. Sinclair is losing money because they paid Disney/Fox Sports too much for the shares of the 14 RSN’s they purchased. Based on revenue they were worth $7-8 billion and Sinclair paid nearly $11 billion,
#2, The Padres are part owners of that station. The contract allows them to take over 100% ownership if the RSN is unable to fulfill their end of the deal for a set dollar amount that is based on revenue of the individual station. They will then be able to sell streaming deals in market and blackout rules will no longer apply, so they will make even more money than they do now.
Pads Fans, According to BB Ref, and Sportrac, Machado is owed $32M a year for 2024 through 2028, which adds up to $160M.
His signing bonus was spread out over years that’s why he is getting 32m each of the last 5 years remaining. I have no idea if he has to be on the team still to get that since it was a signing bonus. Padres may have to pay the 2m every year anyways.
Sportrac and BB Ref are wrong. They are taking the $20 million signing bonus and assigning it in equal $2 million parts to each season of the 10 year deal.
Machado is making $30 million per season.
His signing bonus was NOT spread out over the years. It was paid in year one within 30 days of the league approval of the deal.He had that money before he ever stepped on the field as a Padre. Go read the articles about his signing and Cots Baseball Contracts.
Dirtiest player in the league. Argue against it if you will but it was clearly on display in the WS.
Whatever you say Captain Clownshoes
Chase Utley was the dirtiest player in the league…he just didn’t get his scumbag credit for it as much as Machado.
It’s hard to blame a player for exercising a right they have, but the chances are that his actual choice is going to depend on his performance and health. He’s an extremely talented player and he’s been durable. He’s a likely HOF provided he doesn’t crater. Still, as we’ve seen recently, there’s both crazy money…and players who are losing most of all of their seasons. BTW, interesting negotiating tactic. If I were San Diego, I wouldn’t bite.
Padres fans got a bit uncomfortable knowing he’s not going to pull an arenado. No big deal right just sign Ohtani problem solved
Buck Manny reunion in Queens. He gets the money Correa didn’t.
Going to take more than that to get Machado to sign with the Mets.
Buck Manny reunion in Queens. He gets the money Correa didn’t
If does opt out, he’ll be doing the Padres a favor. It will increase their flexibility, allow them to make a top dollar offer to Soto and maybe even get Ohtani!
No he wouldn’t be doing the Padres a favor. His production would just have to be replaced. You’re not replacing his production for less than 5/$160m on the open market.
You replace him with Soto (long term) and/or Ohtani. Soto is younger and far more valuable over the next 6 years. It is simply not sustainable for the Padres to keep Machado and think they can sign Soto and afford Tatis, Xander as well. Personally, I’d prefer Soto over Machado’s age 31-36 seasons. If you disagree that’s fine, we each have a right to an opinion. It just seems delusional to me to suggest Machado, Soto, XB and Tatis are all affordable long term for a team in that market.
Even if that were the case (which it isn’t) Manny still wouldn’t be doing the Padres a favor if he opted out because he would at least have some trade value if not for the opt-out. Opting out deprives the Padres of the ability to extract value from the contract via trade. Trading a player for prospects will always always always always always always always always ALWAYS beat losing him for nothing.
“Even if that were the case (which it isn’t)….” Hmmm….. I guess because you’re legendary, we just need to accept your declaration? Must be nice to be a self-appointed legend and expert.
You’ve lost me though on the “opt out”somehow changing the thinking of Padres and depriving them of the ability to trade the man. First, there is no way Padres trade Manny this year, with or without an opt out, unless they are out of contention for a playoff spot. If, however, they wanted to trade Manny at deadline there would be takers. He has value—unless his performance indicates otherwise.
You said above that Machado would be doing the Padres a favor by opting out because it would allow them to use the money that would otherwise go to him to try and sign Juan Soto and/or Shohei Ohtani. The Padres don’t want to divest themselves of Manny at all. But let’s assume for a second that they did. He still wouldn’t be doing the Padres a favor by opting out. If he doesn’t opt out they can trade him (without eating any money) to some other team that needs a 3B more than they do for top prospects.. What sounds better to you: Trading a player for prospects or losing for nothing? Would you rather have prospects or not have prospects, all other things equal?
Thanks for some additional insight on your thinking. You clearly set a high value on Machado. He’s a fine player who has put up outstanding numbers that past few years and, contrary to my initial assessments when signed, has been worth what the Padres have paid him in the initial years of the deal. That said, my first point has been he will not be worth what the Padres owe him in the final years of the deal. I completely respect that you disagree with that assessment and in fact believe his contract will be good for the team for the duration. Let’s just agree to disagree on that point and allow the next six years to play out.
My second point, which you have seemingly dismissed (but never directly addressed or refuted) is that the Padres cannot afford their existing commitments to Machado, Tatis, XB AND pay Soto what he will be able to get when a free agent. Implicit in this argument is the belief that the Padres, IF forced to choose, would prefer a younger Soto (or Ohtani who will be equally expensive) to Machado. If you believe the Padres are able to add another $40-50 million per year to their payroll for 10-15 years then say so and please explain just how that’s possible. The author of this piece openly suggests that’s a key question. I’d enjoying hearing that analysis. If, on the other hand, you believe Machado is actually a better player in his age 31-36 seasons than a younger Soto, ok. We can just agree to disagree.
Now, on the basic point you have emphatically made (underscored with 9 “always’”), I disagree with your assumption that the opt out in Machado’s contract changes the thinking or behaviors of the Padres. The Padres are just not going to trade Machado this year. They have about a 90% chance of making the playoffs. If they are a playoff team, they would never consider trading Machado with or without an opt out in his contract. I would argue that if they completely implode and are looking to trade talent this year they are far more likely to trade Soto who will be a FA in two years (kind of the equivalent of an opt out..). However, in that scenario, Machado’s opt out actually INCREASES the chances he will be traded this year. Machado was traded by the Orioles in 2018 when he was about to be a FA. Machado might actually be more valuable as a 2 month rental this year than he was in 2018 given his recent performance. He certainly would have value to a contender at the trade deadline. Would that be as much value if he carried 5 years of team control—probably not. The caveat being if he underperforms, gets in clubhouse argument with Tatis or Soto, is injured, those 5 years of “control” might not look nearly as good in July as they do to you in February.
I never said the Padres would trade him now or at the deadline. I’m saying if he couldn’t opt out and they agreed with your assessment that “If does opt out (sic), he’ll be doing the Padres a favor. It will increase their flexibility, allow them to make a top dollar offer to Soto and maybe even get Ohtani!” they would trade him NEXT offseason. They wouldn’t need the opt-out to divest themselves of him and his contract. And by doing this they would be able to get back top prospects rather than losing him for nothing. So the opt-out either forces the Padres to pay Manny more money or robs them of a valuable trade chip. None of those are “doing the Padres a favor.” And you’re dead wrong that he would have less trade value at the deadline without the opt-out. Getting Manny Machado for an extra 5 years for only $150m has CRAZY good value. And if it didn’t, Manny would not opt-out and this entire conversation would be null and void.
No we will not agree to disagree. You’re wrong and in denial. Your view is wrong and always will be. Don’t even try to play like you have a rational view because you don’t. Opt-outs can only hurt teams. If the player is producing at a level where he would “be doing his team a favor if he opted out,” he’s not opting out. Never. 0% of the time. Not even a question.
Bottom line, the only player who has ever “done his team a favor” by opting out is A. J. Burnett with the Phillies. And he isn’t the best example because he knew he wasn’t going to beat his remaining contract but getting to spend his last season before he retired pitching for an actual contender was more important to him than getting every last dollar and he didn’t end up leaving THAT much money on the table. He took a bit of a haircut but he still made more money in his career than probably everyone in this comment section combined ever will.
First move for the Nationals new ownership can be to sign Machado to play alongside his once-and-future teammates Hassell, Abrams, Gore, Wood, Susana.
The Padres quandry is a good problem to have. They have to many superstar contracts to afford them all. Im surprised they paid Darvish already, but whatever. I’d argue it’s going to come down to Soto or Machado. I can’t envision both getting mega deals from the Padres. Or they both do, and Tatis gets shipped off somewhere else.
In reality however, Im also just as confident the Padres owner… CURRENTLY… doesn’t care. He’ll worry about hemorrhaging money later.
If only 85% of the owners were that way…
The Padres aren’t trading Tatis lol delete your account.
Manny has come a long way from his earlier behavior and comments in his career. The way he’s taken a leadership role in San Diego, especially the tough love he showed Tatis in 2021 when Tatis was being childish, really sold me on Manny. It also helps that he has raked both offensively and defensively. San Diego would be foolish to let him walk.
I can see him signing with the Mets next year if they miss out on Ohtani. Would rather have Machado over Correa any day. With that being said, I don’t think its smart to offer him a contract for more than 5 years. I’d be comfortable with a 5 year 40 mil a year contract but he probably wants more than that. I’d pass and develop young talent or trade for someone thats young over signing him but thats just me
i’m objectively rooting for padres to get a championship from these big budget times for them..more power to them..i don’t see how such a small market team can sustain this for very long..and the big difference for arenado is that some othr team is paying huge chunk of his salary..every bit of his salary the rockies pay for is money the cardinals can spend on other parts of a championship caliber team…casual observer here..im a braves fan
If the Mets don’t sign Ohtani than there’s the Mets 3b Machado, move Baty to LF
Love how the NY reporter leaves out a very important part of the interview.
Machado said that if he is not able to come to an agreement with the Padres that he plans to opt out of his contract at the end of the season.
Seems to me that those words that preceded the opting out part are equally if not more important. Guess that is not as click worthy.
Nick, Padres keep proving they are NOT in a difficult payroll situation. Extending Machado long term prior to the 2023 season would likely lower their CBT hit.
Peter Seidler has had cancer and that has been the motivation for his “you can’t take it with you” approach to finances…
Here’s the problem… If he dies of an aneurysm tomorrow, the Padres are screwed unless his estate goes completely into the team. (They still may be screwed after that too.)
This is a storm brewing. So far, it’s contained in a teacup.
Seidler is a finance guy. In other words, he is smart about how he invests money. According to recent comments by Erik Greupner, the Padres CEO, Seidler and the ownership group are not taking money out of their pockets to finance the team right now. With their playoff run last season they had revenue approaching $400 million. Enough that a $250-270 million payroll would not require the ownership group to come out of pocket. A World Series win would add nearly $100 million to that total Winning pays.
People pointing out how Arenado surely regrets not opting out: You haven’t paid attention. He had and has said that it wasn’t necessarily about the money. Arenado legitimately enjoys playing for St. Louis. He makes enough money that he isn’t getting screwed over; the money doesn’t matter. Not every player has the money as their front and center concern. There are examples of this almost every year with the most elite players.
The Cardinals would have paid Nolan even more money if he had opted out.
Probably. But it doesn’t matter because he didn’t care to pursue it.
Hopefully he has a good year. Otherwise, saying this before the season even starts is going to look pretty dumb.
Not really
The greed of these players make me sick. A guy should stay with his team for the remainder of the contract. When did they start inserting “opt out” clauses into these deals?
What is the point of a team signing these ballplayers to a long term so he can get out of in a couple of years as opposed to only signing him for 2 years?
This sport has pivoted way too much in the players favor.
The owners are really getting ripped off.
I think the Padres will keep Manny and let Soto walk. There is no way you can keep both without giving them contracts through their reaching age 65, as much as I’d like to…
There is NO way I would sign Machado. He sounds like he is out for himself and only himself. There is no honor and loyalty anymore.
I guess the Padres aren’t paying him enough.
The players don’t understand that they are destroying the game with their greed!
TV, radio and attendance have sharply declined in recent years in reflection of the fact of baseball is rapidly losing popularity here in the USA!
Soon a lot of teams revenue will not be able to cover skyrocketing payrolls!
Elevating salaries like this will eventually put MLB in bankruptcy!
This is so very sad for me to see the destruction of the game I so dearly love.
That’s a lot of exclamation points!!
What’s his reason for announcing this now? It doesn’t make sense. Say he blows out a knee and hits .249 with 17 homers whatever, will he still opt out?
It’ll be interesting if the Padres extend Machado or wait to see about Ohtani. With Soto’s free agency looming in 2024, they’ll need to lock in at least one of those three to sustain their current run toward the top of the NL West.
and everyone says the owners are the greedy ones..
It’s possible for them both to be greedy, this isn’t an apocalyptic battle between good and evil.
And to all those who think opt-outs benefit teams by saving them from the player’s eventual decline years, you’re wrong. You will notice how every single player with an opt-out either doesn’t use it (Eric Hosmer, Giancarlo Stanton), re-ups with their original team for more money (Stephen Strasburg, Yoenis Cespedes), their original team tries to re-up them for more money but is unsuccessful (Zack Greinke, Xander Bogaerts) or the player’s original team would have at least been able to trade him for prospects if not for the opt-out (Nick Castellanos). In none of those scenarios did the team benefit from the player having an opt-out. In fact, the Hosmer/Stanton situation is the only one where they even broke even from it.
Manny Machado will be either scenario 2 or scenario 3.
“You will notice how every single player with an opt-out (which creates scenarios A, B, C, or D) creates scenarios A, B, C or D.”
Ok.
You will notice that no player has ever opted out and his team benefited from it. Even in the case of Nick Castellanos where the Reds were actively try to shed payroll when he opted out they could have at least gotten something for him in trade at that point if it weren’t for the opt out. I’ve seen people in this thread try to argue that the Padres would be happy if Manny opted out because it would allow them to reallocate the money elsewhere. Those people couldn’t be further from the truth.
Ok
Ah, so you admit that I am right? Great. Glad we are on the same page.
You don’t even know what I commented on hahaha so ok You’re not even on the same page with yourself
Opt-out clauses can only hurt teams.
okay
What’s hilarious is that that is all you have to say to contribute to this discussion.
Okk
You’re proving my point the more you comment that.
k
Yes. Please keep defending my argument for me. It’s quite hilarious.
Ok. I could care less about the substance of some fallacy-filled baseless claims from a casual who doesn’t understand baseball economics. You still fail to see what my original comment was about. THAT’s what’s hilarious LMAO
So we’re clear, you are saying you DO care about “the substance of some fallacy-filled baseless claims from a casual who doesn’t understand baseball economics?”
yep could care less about. Reading comprehension isn’t your thing today, is it bud?
“Could care less” = “It is possible for me to care less than I do at this present time.” If it is possible for you to care less than you do at this present time that means you do care. At least a little.
Yeah if you’re a Brit
Or anyone else that speaks the English language.
It’s broken English regardless. Doesn’t make it less fun. Nice deflection though
“Even in the case of Nick Castellanos where the Reds were actively TRY to shed payroll…”
“What’s hilarious is THAT THAT is all you have to say to contribute to this discussion.”
For people who speak the English language btw…
Back on topic… In none of the scenarios outlined does the team benefit from the opt-out. Those of us who “understand baseball economics” know that.
Like I said, I don’t care about your little “scenarios outlined.” My intention was never to argue the random whims of what you prefer and don’t prefer in the world. Go back and reread my OG comment to see what I’m actually pointing out.
And if “those of you who understand baseball economics know that,” I’m assuming you’re also talking about the presidents and general managers of all 30 Major League clubs. If so, then why do all these teams offer opt outs if they presumably “know that” they fail in every scenario, as you’ve suggested. Unless you’re referring to only yourself in your club of one?
That’s easy. They offer opt-outs because it saves them some money upfront on the contract. No team is just giving a player an opt-out if he is already willing to sign for the exact same years and dollar figures but with no opt-out. The same reason anyone would write a stock option: They receive money upfront. But the stock option itself is pure downside for the writer. Just like the opt-out is pure downside for the team. Yet we have people in this thread and others trying to argue that it is not.
“I don’t care” says the guy who keeps commenting 38 hours later.
1. “That’s easy. They offer opt-outs because it saves them some money upfront on the contract.” You just answered your own question as to why teams keep offering this if it’s pure downside.
2. The only one arguing whatever it is you’re trying to argue or not is your own self.
3. Like I said, I don’t care about the SUBSTANCE of your argument. I was merely pointing our the flaw in its STRUCTURE. Since reading comprehension doesn’t seem to be your thing, I’ll save you the trouble of going back and lay it out here one more time. Hopefully you’ll actually read it and not start to deflect once again.
“You will notice how every single player with an opt-out (which creates scenarios A, B, C, or D) creates scenarios A, B, C or D.”
I’ll await your comment 38 hours later.
1. I always knew why teams offer it. But other people try to argue that the opt-out itself ISN’T pure downside. Including in the comments on this article.
2. Nope. Read the rest of the comments on this article.
3. If you didn’t care you wouldn’t keep commenting on an article that was posted 2 days ago.
“You will notice how every single player with an opt-out (which creates scenarios A, B, C, or D) creates scenarios A, B, C or D.”
You conveniently ignored this part of my comment. “In none of those scenarios did the team benefit from the player having an opt-out. In fact, the Hosmer/Stanton situation is the only one where they even broke even from it.” In practice, the player opts out if and only if his team views him opting out as the worst case scenario.
Neither would you.
Lol it amazes me how you still think I’m actually arguing with you. Again, I am not arguing whatever it is you want to argue. You will believe whatever you want to believe and that’s ok. Some people can never see past their pigheadedness.
But the fact that you still can’t see the flaw in how you wrote your argument, even after you just wrote my OG comment again, is indeed mind-boggling. To put it in layman’s terms, I don’t much care for the meat inside the burger. I’m more interested in the soggy buns surrounding it.
It’s not what I believe. These are the facts here.
What’s hilarious is you’re so “pigheaded,” to use your own words, that you don’t even realize what my original argument is yet you continue to reply almost 2 full days later whilst screaming that you don’t care.
Oks
I realize what you want to say. Again, I’m not arguing your argument, just how it’s presented. Now get a life and go scream somewhere else you psycho
200% mad
Ok.
Ok.
There are no words to describe this greed. Now we know why it costs $300 for a family of 4 to go to a ball game.
Stupid, stupid, stupid
Be kind of funny if the Orioles opened their wallets and re-signed Manny. Manny and Gunnar would make a heck of a tandem.
Been thinking this ever since the Padres signed him. During their rebuild the Orioles were better off spending that $30m a year on prospects/player development than on Manny Machado but after 2023 if Manny doesn’t sign an extension they can bring him back on the open market. Is Gunnar projected to stay at shortstop long-term?
Legendary, miltpapa, 1975 reds want to join a fantasy baseball auction league?
What on Earth possessed him to announce this now?
So, if he bats .130 and slugs .258 for 6 weeks and then breaks his leg, he’s opting out?
Him announcing this is not legally binding. Probably wants to put the pressure on Padres ownership to pay up now rather than waiting and seeing if he can sustain his 2022 performance.
Fair point that he might be willing to look like a schmuck and eat his words…for hundreds of millions of dollars.
What was I thinking?
Does it force their hand at all, though? Given how much they have spent on others players…and the fact that Preller always wants to add, I actually think SD would be fine with him walking.
If he is producing at a level where they “would be fine with him walking” then he’s opting in. Look at the history of players with opt-outs for proof of that.
At 31, I’m saying that even after a good season, they’d be happy to wave goodbye with a smile, just to reallocate and sign (or trade for) some other shiny new thing.
I doubt getting hundreds of millions more even if he repeats last year, I’m thinking more like 50 to 100, but doesnt change the point
No they would not. They can not replace Manny’s production (both now and in the future) on the open market for less than 5/$160m. And if they could, he would not opt out. Again, name one player who opted out and his team was happy he opted out. I’ll wait.
Manny Machado a year from now.
Jurickson Profar.
😀
@66TheNumberOfTheBest BRAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAACK! Wrong! Thanks for playing!
@CrikesAlready He has to sign for less than $6.5m guaranteed for that to be true and somehow I don’t think Manny Machado will end up having to settle for less than he opted out of.
Harambe pretty much nailed it. The Padres just offered to give Manny Machado 10/$255m. If they are willing to pay him that they most certainly wouldn’t be happy if he walked away from 5/$150m.
@66TheNumberOfTheBest So much for your THEORY about the Padres “happily waving goodbye” if Manny Machado opts out of his contract LOL! They just extended him for 11/$350m! Clearly they WOULDN’T have been happy if he opted out of 5/$150m!
@CrikesAlready Looks like the Padres are not happy Profar opted out. The Rockies would have traded the Padres something for him if he didn’t opt out. But with the opt-out the Padres have to pay hum $1m to go pay for a division rival.
Quite possibly doing the team a favor. His defense will continue to decline and I wouldn’t be surprised if a couple years down the line he’s a slightly above average league hitter at third base. I hope a team I like doesn’t give him some crazy 10 year contract.
He had a 159 OPS+ last season and you think that in 2 years he will regress to league average? Typical regression in his age group would put him around a 137-138 OPS+ in 2 years.
If he signs an extension with the Padres before the 2023 season, in the 7th or 8th season of the deal he should be about league average as a hitter.
That’s probably not his true talent level. 130-135+ seems more likely this year, declining from there. It’s not impossible, and maybe he found a new gear, but it’s more likely he just had one of those years. To me him regressing would look more like a 115+ year.
That’s still one heck of a player
Machado has had a 147 OPS+ the last 3 seasons. Between that and his 159 OPS+ last season is his true talent level because it’s what he has produced.
His avg ops+ for his career is is 126. Was as low as 110 in 2019. While I don’t expect a rapid decline let’s not act like 159 is the norm.
His recent performance is 147 OPS+ over the last 3 seasons. That is far more and indicator of his talent level than his career average and it is what teams will be looking at when they start making bids to sign him in FA.
That would be a great way to figure things if signing him to a 3 year contract going forward. If signing him to a 10 year contract, look at the last 10. Then figure what you get will be less than that.
He definitely isn’t going to avg 147 of the life of his next contract. He will be 31 when he opts out. One could make a real case by then his best seasons could already be gone. He should still have 4-5 good years left before the real decline starts in. Now if you forecast what is he worth in year 6-10-11-12-13? Those last few years is isn’t going to be worth more then 10m (that’s if he is even about avg at age 40-41-42-43). So if he is worth say 40m the next 5 years then 15m the next 7 years after that then he would be worth about a max of 12/305m. Which is about what I think he is going to be worth.
They were talking about what base any regression would start at. Are you always this obtuse styme?
Starting regression at 159 OPS+, they already gave you an answer.
Starting at 147 OPS+ he would reach about league average (102.3 OPS+) at the level of regression they used in the 6th season of the deal.
If you use WAR he would be league average in the 8th season of the deal.
No. He is not doing the team a favor by opting out. They aren’t replacing his production for less than 5/$160m in free agency.
Hopefully the Orioles will re-sign him.
As a Padres fan, If he wants Judge Money, I think they should let Manny walk and Extend Soto and Kim.
I’m not interested in Ohtani
In a Perfect world they extend Manny and Soto
Imagine what Stephanie Apstein was wearing when she wrote that article.
With the additions of guys like Hader, Soto, and Bogaerts, the Padres might have their best team ever, and could have a legitimate chance of reaching the World Series. So why would Machado, making the obscene amount of $30MM per, even mention opting out? Does he really care more about getting an even more outrageous contract than playing for a pennant-contending team and the loyal fans who support it? Owners, players, and agents share the blame for ruining MLB – and all professional sports –.with their seemingly limitless narcissism and greed.
Don’t forget the fans!
As I often say, money almost always trumps winning or team loyalty. There will occasionally be a guy like Jose Ramirez who signs for a hometown discount, but it’s rare.
Not a fan of this at all. Doesn’t Manny know he have to lie with proverbial platitudes such as “I’m only focused on the upcoming season” or “I hope to finish the rest of my career here?” It’s baseball free agency 101!
Forgot my favorite “I love it here.”
They are at least 5 teams I could see being extremely involved on Manny – Padres, Giants, Cubs, and both NY teams. The Rangers, Angels, and Mariners may kick the tires. That’s a lot with such a small group of top free agents.
Rangers? Why? They have Josh Jung. Sure, they waste money like idiots on duplicates (2 shortstops, 4 starters, etc.), but they aren’t that reckless, as far as I know. Why wouldn’t they have just gone for Arenado the first time?
This does have Angels written all over it, doesn’t it?
How long is Rendon under contract for?
Greed is good. In this case for the Giants.
This dude is an ass. Always has been.
lol
Zaidi doesn’t need to consider trying to sign Machado after 2023 season. Machado may be considered as a “superstar” but he isn’t the player Giants need. Especially playing at 31 this season and wanting double years contract.
Much rather give Casey Schmitt the 3B opportunity to develop into the talent the Giants are projecting.
Not saying the giants are signing him. Saying it’s good for the giants because he likely goes to AL east
You’re setting yourself up for disappointment when he signs extension with Pads ( which is more likely than him going elsewhere)
Born and raised in America. Made all his money here. Plays for The DR in WBC. Traitor.
Er, DR is in America.
Dominican Republic is an independent country. You may be thinking of Puerto Rico. For the record, I don’t care where these guys play.
Whoosh. That sound is the point going over your head.
The DR is not in the US, but it is definitely in the Americas.
Nobody cares about the WBC. They need to do away with it so these guys can get to spring training to get ready for the real thing.
Stands are always full and the players love it. So obviously people care.
Dirtbag player. Please keep him on the West Coast and in the National League.
Dirtbag lol! So just because he’s not on your team that makes him a dirtbag. I see.
Machado to the Yankees is the biggest baseball trade in the last 50 years. San Diego trades Machado,Snell,Hader,and Soto to the Yankees for Stanton,Severino,Torres,German,Peraza,Donaldson AND Doninguez.San Diego gets rid of over 60 million in salery this year , and probably saving over 300 million on soto in the future.The Yankees finally opening up there pocket book and going over the tax so now they can really compete with Houston
woof
Oh I was wearing my Money Machado Padres jersey on the bus just now and people were sniggering and now I know why.
If he has a major injury or gets busted for PEDs he will change his mind!
Do you all think Nick used the word WARRENT instead of DESERVE in the article for “Machado’s certainly performed at a level to this point in his career that would warrant such a contract.” just wondering?
Not a surprise, but probably not the best response.
I thought from the beginning that this was the Padres likely preferred outcome when they signed him. Get five seasons during his peak 20s, and then let him leave.
Only in baseball can only an older player moving farther away from their prime be worth more than a younger player in their prime.
Silly response. I don’t like Machado, but there is no doubt he is a top-tier player.
It’s a formality … Machado’s going to the Mets next year.
let him walk
Since my earliest memories are of great players who often had to find work in the off season or certainly, retirement, just to get by, today’s salaries are mind numbing.
Guess we’ll all look back fondly on this era when the dawn of salaries which make players billionaires arrives
M.L.B was of course ragging on him for announcing his intention’s, but it was the right thing to do. Now he won’t be bothered with questions all year. There is big money out there and everyone knew he was going to do so.
I’m so sick & tired of these darn “opt-outs”. I blame Scott Boras for this trend. How about giving the team the “opt-out”, if you suck, they cut your a$$ !!
Thanks for some additional insight on your thinking. You clearly set a high value on Machado. He’s a fine player who has put up outstanding numbers that past few years and, contrary to my initial assessments when signed, has been worth what the Padres have paid him in the initial years of the deal. That said, my first point has been he will not be worth what the Padres owe him in the final years of the deal. I completely respect that you disagree with that assessment and in fact believe his contract will be good for the team for the duration. Let’s just agree to disagree on that point and allow the next six years to play out. My second point, which you have seemingly dismissed (but never directly addressed or refuted) is that the Padres cannot afford their existing commitments to Machado, Tatis, XB AND pay Soto what he will be able to get when a free agent. Implicit in this argument is the belief that the Padres, IF forced to choose, would prefer a younger Soto (or Ohtani who will be equally expensive) to Machado. If you believe the Padres are able to add another $40-50 million per year to their payroll for 10-15 years then say so and please explain just how that’s possible. The author of this piece openly suggests that’s a key question. I’d enjoying hearing that analysis. If, on the other hand, you believe Machado is actually a better player in his age 31-36 seasons than a younger Soto, ok. We can just agree to disagree.
Now, on the basic point you have emphatically made (underscored with 9 “always’”), I disagree with your assumption that the opt out in Machado’s contract changes the thinking or behaviors of the Padres. The Padres are just not going to trade Machado this year. They have about a 90% chance of making the playoffs. If they are a playoff team, they would never consider trading Machado with or without an opt out in his contract. I would argue that if they completely implode and are looking to trade talent this year they are far more likely to trade Soto who will be a FA in two years (kind of the equivalent of an opt out..). However, in that scenario, Machado’s opt out actually INCREASES the chances he will be traded this year. Machado was traded by the Orioles in 2018 when he was about to be a FA. Machado might actually be more valuable as a 2 month rental this year than he was in 2018 given his recent performance. He certainly would have value to a contender at the trade deadline. Would that be as much value if he carried 5 years of team control—probably not. The caveat being if he underperforms, gets in clubhouse argument with Tatis or Soto, is injured, those 5 years of “control” might not look nearly as good in July as they do to you in February.
“The Padres, themselves, are at the forefront of this movement toward signing players to longer deals.”
For crying out loud, learn how to use commas. This is not correct at all. There should be zero commas in this sentence.