Offseason In Review Chat: San Diego Padres By Darragh McDonald | March 21, 2023 at 9:57am CDT MLBTR will be hosting team-specific chats in conjunction with each entry of our Offseason In Review series. Yesterday, we released the Padres’ entry in the series. Click here to read the transcript of the Padres-centric chat.
“not Ryan” lol
You and saratoga72 must hang out together…..
I remember there was “not Mickey Koke” a while back.
Why is ‘Ryan’ fascinated with the same silly query? It’s like his brain is high-centered on a speed bump going on 5 years plus. I suppose he’s just infatuated with the Hoz!?
Is this the same guy that had a monkey eat his shoes a few years ago?
Loved this early chat!
Great for us old people!
You must be fun at parties!
If you even get invited…..
Can ANYONE find news of what happened to Wilmer Font? I have tweeted SD beat reporters, asked in a few threads here and elsewhere, and still can find absolutely nothing about this guy, lol. He turned into a ghost after signing from overseas, and yet he gets mentioned in most Padres writeups. He was really quite good in the KBO, so I figured he might have a shot to be one of the first depth SPs up to do a spot start. Hasn’t played at all in Spring Training.
Show me on this doll, where did the padres hurt you…
Yeah? And they’re at least trying to win. It’s a high-risk/high-reward strat, but they could win the NL West and over the Dodgers, something that has happened once since 2013.
There were no “fairly comparable offers” to what the Padres were offering Machado. And I’m really not sure how signing Hosmer was helping the team win.
Why would the Pirates trade Reynolds for Grisham when they have the same club control???? If the Pirates are trading Reynolds Grisham isn’t A piece, let alone the headlining piece!
As Darragh said, the pudding would be in the prospects sent back from NYM. That being said, why would the all-in Pads move Grish AND Hader for Brian Reynolds? And why would the same Pads move Soto… for prospects??? Beyond silly, especially when SD does a very fine job of procuring their own prospects through the natural processes.
I genuinely believe, Gwynning, that if the Pirates are trading Reynolds then they see Grisham as having negative value to them. That they would rather take those prospects without Grisham.
And as Darragh mentioned, the only way Soto gets traded is if the team tanks in 2024.
Fair enough, but he’s got 2 Gold Gloves in CF and a couple years of control. There’s intrinsic value there, but you’re correct in that he’s much more valuable to the Pads than the Pirates. Grish alone doesn’t come close to procuring Reynolds; we all know that.
Grisham has the same club control as Reynolds. If the Pirates wanted an outfielder who is controlled through 2025 I think they would rather just keep the one they got.
Bob “Thrifty” Nutting might disagree, but your points are well heard here. I don’t disagree.
If Reynolds being 3 years away from making any real money isn’t enough for Nutting, then the same would be true of Grisham.
I’m just saying Grish makes less than half of BR, and most probably will after hitting FA. Again, I’m not disagreeing with anything you’ve posted, just enjoying the seamhead chat. HAGD =)
Reynolds is making $6.75m on a one year deal for 2023 and then has 2 arb years left. The Pirates can afford to keep him. There is no downside on a player who is still in arb.
And on top of all that… the Padres aren’t going to just give Grisham away. If the Pirates are getting Grisham in the trade it means they are getting fewer/not-as-good prospects as they would get if they let the Padres keep Grisham.
2.6 WAR vs 2.9 WAR. Which is which?
10% of 2023 payroll. 20% of 2024 payroll. 25% of 2025 payroll. I can see how that would be a downside for Nutting.
4.5 WAR vs. 3.7 WAR looking at the same site and not cherry picking Reynolds’ down season in 2022 where he was still better than Grisham. Swapping Reynolds for Grisham would just be a weird lateral move that doesn’t actually make the Pirates better.
Reynolds is easily affordable for any team and will continue to be for 3 more years.
It also doesn’t make the Padres appreciably better because it would require moving Tatis to CF.
It’s a minor improvement at best for the Padres and you are right that the Pirates would be asking for more than just Grisham. That is why it will not happen.
Those were the percentage of total payroll base on Reynolds estimated arbitration numbers unless Nutting suddenly decides to greatly increase payroll. To NUTTING that may not be affordable.
They wouldn’t be asking for more than just Grisham they wouldn’t want Grisham at all. They have the same club control.
Then neither would Grisham. Especially when you consider the extra money Nutting would have to spend to make up the aggregate difference in production.
Them having the same amount of team control would not be an issue. Teams makes trades every year for players with the same or less team control than the player they traded away.
To make up the less than 1 WAR difference in performance? Are you serious? Any decent minor league player can put up a 0.8 WAR.
“Them having the same amount of team control would not be an issue.”
Them having the same club control is a HUGE issue. Club control is the lifeblood of any rebuilding team.
“Teams makes trades every year for players with the same or less team control than the player they traded away.”
Not when they are rebuilding and certainly not if they got brains in their heads.
“To make up the less than 1 WAR difference in performance? Are you serious?”
If the difference is that miniscule why do Padres fans want to upgrade from Grisham to Reynolds so badly that they would attach relevant prospects to do it?
“Any decent minor leaguer can put up a 0.8 WAR.”
If they could they would be in the majors.
Similarly… if Ohtani is traded, Kim won’t be in the trade. He’s only controlled one year longer than Ohtani.
I agree with your premise that teams that are making “seller” trades shouldn’t acquire other pieces that are close to free agency in those trades, even as tertiary pieces. But in practice it does happen. The Cubs acquired Zach Davies in the Darvish trade for instance.
If Ohtani is traded now with only 1 year of team control, the Angels are not getting a 5 WAR player back. They will get a couple of prospects. Maybe even a couple top 100 prospects. But not a proven All Star level player.
And they would prefer the prospects if the “proven All Star level player” is only controlled one (1) year longer than Ohtani himself.
They will never be offered a proven All Star level player with 2 years of team control. That is the point.
Also, Moreno has shown time and time again that he would prefer the big-name player to prospects.
1 year where he didn’t even make the ASG isn’t a “proven All Star level player.”
And I’m not sure who is coming out to the games specifically to see Ha-Seong Kim play that wasn’t already going to go there anyway. This isn’t Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani, Albert Pujols or roided out Barry Bonds we are talking about.
If Tatis’ throwing errors were all Hosmer’s fault why didn’t Kim make a bunch of throwing errors? Was Hosmer never playing 1st base while Kim was at shortstop?
Not “all” but some were misplayed by Hos. He really was quite unsatisfactory defensively at the position. Very strange footwork, too. Led me to believe he didn’t see the ball well out of Tatis’ hands. It wasn’t my question, but I could see where the OP was going. Reflecting to ’22, I believe Kim just made better throws for Hos to manage. Some of Tatis’ errors came on rushed throws on batted balls that no other SS would get to though. To me, and I value SS defense very high, his arm wasn’t indicative of a problem; he just needed maturing at the position. Knowing when NOT to throw is important, too.
So why didn’t he misplay Kim’s throws then?
I still believe Kim just made “better” throws for Hos to be able to manage. This is highly subjective to opinion, but Hos did seem more apprehensive when it was Tatis throwing; it was coming in ALOT hotter than Kim’s arm. It’s neither here nor there with me; it’s all in the past and not very worthy of a fine tooth comb dissection.
Kim didn’t log too many innings at SS in 21, and in 22 Hoz/Bell/Voit were sharing 1B, though Bell and Voit are worse than Hosmer defensively, so your point can still be made.
I just feel like if Tatis’ throwing error problem was really Hosmer’s fault then Hosmer would have had the same effect on Kim in 2022. Only one man’s opinion.
A lot of Tatis’ errant throws were just wild and way off target, if I recall correctly.
Agree. Hosmer can’t be blamed for many of the errors. Of course it would have helped if they had a better receiver at 1B, which speaks more to just how great Kim was last year.
I dont think Tatis is a bad SS, and in fact with his range and cannon arm he might have become great with a little more experience. Guess we’ll never know now.
Bogaerts will have to move off shortstop in a couple years and Kim is a free agent after 2024. At that point it will be either Tatis or Merrill (if not traded).
Kim played SS in 22 games where Hosmer was the 1B in 2022. 2 of Kim’s 3 throwing errors were with Hosmer at 1B.
Tatis played SS in 101 games when Hosmer was the 1B in 2021. All 13 of his throwing errors were with Hosmer at 1B.
Not saying Hosmer was the issue. Just pointing out the number of games each played SS with Hosmer at 1B.
And I’m saying if he was the issue Kim would have also made a bunch of throwing errors.
I agree. The problem was an excitable young man trying to show off his cannon arm and making throws when a veteran SS would have just hung onto the ball.
I also found that 2 of Tatis’ TE were to 2B, one to 3B, and one to the catcher. Only 9 were thrown to 1B.
Old timer 78
I must have been watching a different Hosmer over the Last 4 years. I thought Hos was More than adequate at 1st Base
Dug out a Lot of Balls in the Dirt
Hosmer was atrocious defensively with the Padres.
He’s still making the same atrocious plays this Spring in Chicago.
Hosmer was atrocious at fielding balls in play off the bat with the Padres, not overall defense.
None of the major defensive metrics take into account the part of the 1B job that they do more than anything else, catch the ball thrown to them. Balls in play off the bat account for about 1/10 of the balls they catch thrown by other players.
There are two types of errant throws that a 1B has to be good at catching to be considered a god 1B. One is scoops or balls in the dirt. That stat is shown in Fangraphs. The other is offline throws. Ones that pull the 1B off the bag because they are wide or high. It is not shown in Fangraphs but is readily available in other places like BIS and BP.
Prior to 2020, Hosmer had never been outside the top 3 in both of those stats and many years was the best in baseball, saving his team 40+ throwing errors.
In 2021 he was near the worst. After the team had tried to trade him prior to that season it seemed as if he didn’t care. He was just swiping his glove at balls instead of focusing on the catch. In 2022 he was much better in his 88 games with the Padres, but closer to middle of the pack instead of top of the heap like he was for so many years.
I just read an article coming out of Seattle that talks about Fernando Tatis Jr. being traded to the Mariners for….someone. You know you’ve got a good club when other teams start coveting all your stars.
If it’s for George Kirby and Ty France back then maybe.
Seattle media came up with a trade suggestion on Dec. 8. Obviously, seeing as how it was created by Seattle media, it greatly favored Seattle.
Basically just Gilbert, Kelenic and garbage. Not happening. This was suggested before Spring Training, so now that Kelenic is actually hitting again I bet they would try to replace him with garbage.
A recent(2 days ago) trade discussion just said “pitching” in return for Tatis. These are just for clicks. OBVIOUSLY the Padres aren’t going to trade a top 10 in MLB bat for prospects when they are going all in this year, but Seattle can dream.
I agree “That’s What’s In” cost the Padres the pennant.