The Guardians rode a late surge in 2022 to a runaway division title in the American League Central, trouncing the second-place White Sox and third-place Twins by 11 and 14 games, respectively. It was a testament both to the development of several key young players in Cleveland as well as some staggering injury woes both in Chicago and Minnesota. Further down the division ranks, the rebuilds in Detroit and Kansas City both hit roadblocks, with the Tigers and Royals losing 96 and 97 games, respectively.
There was plenty of offseason activity throughout the division, however, and we can expect to see several touted prospects make their debuts in 2023 as well. Will that change the outlook? Let’s take a quick look at each team heading into the season.
Cleveland Guardians (92-70 in 2022)
The Guardians hit the second-fewest home runs of any team in baseball last season but nonetheless ranked 15th in runs scored, offsetting their lack of power with far and away the lowest team strikeout rate in baseball (18.2%). The pitching staff posted a collective 3.47 ERA, ranking sixth in the Majors, and while they were only 12th in strikeout rate (23.2%), they also had the game’s fifth-best walk rate (7.3%). Cleveland also dominated in one other key area: health. Guardians players spent the fewest cumulative days on the injured list of any team in the Majors at just 709, per Spotrac. The second-lowest team, the Orioles, clocked in at 790. Cleveland had less than one-third of the IL days of MLB’s two worst teams in that regard: the Reds (2,638) and the Twins (2,363).
Over the winter, Cleveland signed Josh Bell and Mike Zunino, adding some thump to the lineup. Zunino, in particular is an all-or-nothing hitter at the plate, but Guardians catchers in 2022 were the least-productive in the American League, so he should be an upgrade over last year’s backstops. Top prospects like catcher Bo Naylor, outfielder George Valera and infielder Brayan Rocchio are among the many hitters on the cusp of the Majors and should all be key reinforcements as Cleveland defends its crown.
Chicago White Sox (81-81 in 2022)
The White Sox were tanked by key injuries in 2022, with each of Eloy Jimenez, Luis Robert, Lance Lynn, Tim Anderson, Yoan Moncada, Yasmani Grandal, Michael Kopech, Aaron Bummer and Garrett Crochet spending at least a month on the shelf. The Sox ranked in the bottom third of the league in homers, the bottom half in runs scored and were also a middle-of-the-pack club in terms of rotation and bullpen ERA. Defensively, they were a mess, thanks in no small part to the outfield alignment. The Sox ranked 23rd in the Majors in Outs Above Average (-16), 27th in Defensive Runs Saved (-35) and dead last in Ultimate Zone Rating (-42.2).
The decision to let Jose Abreu walk in free agency was surely a blow to the clubhouse and lineup alike, but it’ll also allow Andrew Vaughn to slide from right field to his natural position, first base. Jimenez can spend significant time at DH, too, now that Andrew Benintendi has been signed to play left field. The Sox didn’t do much to address right field, where Gavin Sheets will try to fend off top prospect Oscar Colas, who should debut early in the season. They’ll hope that Mike Clevinger can replace the resurgent Johnny Cueto in the rotation, and Elvis Andrus is back to handle second base. All of baseball is pulling for closer Liam Hendriks as he battles cancer, and while his health takes priority above all else, there’s no getting around the fact that his absence hurts the relief corps as the Sox look for better results in 2023.
Minnesota Twins (78-84 in 2022)
The Twins were the opposite of the Guardians in terms of player health in 2022, and they’ll hope more than anything that their roster can remain on the field more in 2023. Even with all their health woes, the Twins still ranked in the top half of MLB in home runs and placed 16th in runs scored. Their rotation’s 4.11 ERA was 19th in MLB, while the bullpen’s ERA sat right at MLB’s midpoint.
Minnesota was the most active team in the division this offseason, improbably retaining Carlos Correa after an unprecedented free-agent saga saw deals with the Giants and Mets fall through. The Twins also traded star infielder Luis Arraez to land righty Pablo Lopez and a pair of prospects from the Marlins, giving them the deepest rotation they’ve had in some time — health permitting. Lopez, Sonny Gray, Tyler Mahle, Joe Ryan, a returning Kenta Maeda and Bailey Ober is a strong sextet around which to build the staff. Meanwhile, the Twins keyed in on defense, depth and defensive versatility with their other acquisitions. Catcher Christian Vazquez and outfielders Joey Gallo and Michael A. Taylor are all standouts with the glove (to say nothing of Gallo’s obvious power potential). Kyle Farmer and Donovan Solano can play all over the infield (and, in Farmer’s place, even behind the plate in a pinch).
The bullpen was left as is, with the Twins believing deadline pickup Jorge Lopez, sophomore Jovani Moran (who excelled late in the season) and a returning Jorge Alcala can provide the necessary boost alongside breakout star Jhoan Duran. Oft-injured top prospect Royce Lewis should return this summer, and the Twins could also get late looks at infielders like Edouard Julien and Brooks Lee.
Detroit Tigers (66-96 in 2022)
The Tigers’ 2021-22 offseason was headlined by acquisitions of Javier Baez and Eduardo Rodriguez, but by the end of the regular season those headlines shifted to a front office shuffle. The Tigers’ poor results led ownership to oust GM Al Avila and hire Giants GM Scott Harris as the new president of baseball operations. The 2022 Tigers saw key injuries to the entire core of their promising young rotation, with Casey Mize having Tommy John surgery, Tarik Skubal requiring flexor surgery and Matt Manning missing substantial time due to shoulder troubles. Center fielder Riley Greene and first baseman Spencer Torkelson didn’t develop as hoped in their rookie seasons. Baez and Rodriguez, meanwhile, didn’t live up to their respective contracts.
In Harris’ first offseason on the job, he traded relievers Gregory Soto and Joe Jimenez to add some near-MLB talent, including outfielder Matt Vierling, infielder Nick Maton and catcher Donny Sands. Free agents Matthew Boyd and Michael Lorenzen were signed to help solidify a rotation that’ll also get righty Spencer Turnbull back after he missed the 2022 season recovering from 2021 Tommy John surgery. It was the type of modest offseason that’s generally expected for a newly hired baseball operations leader as they take time to get a feel for the organization before making more sweeping changes. Prospect-wise, pitcher Wilmer Flores and third baseman/outfielder Justyn-Henry Malloy are among the names who could potentially make their debuts this season.
Kansas City Royals (65-97 in 2022)
The Royals had their own front office shakeup, as president of baseball ops Dayton Moore was dismissed after more than 15 years atop the front office. He was replaced by his own longtime top lieutenant J.J. Picollo. That decision came on the heels of a 2022 season in which the Royals, who’ve been focusing their rebuild on drafting and developing college pitchers, posted the fourth-worst rotation ERA in MLB (4.76). Right-hander Brady Singer had a breakout season, but none of Daniel Lynch, Jackson Kowar or Kris Bubic has found much success in the big leagues, and recent No. 4 overall pick Asa Lacy hasn’t progressed in the minors.
Given the manner in which the pitching stalled out, the Royals added veterans Jordan Lyles and Ryan Yarbrough while also re-signing Zack Greinke. That’ll raise the floor of the rotation while perhaps still allowing for some of Lynch, Kowar, Bubic, Jonathan Heasley or Carlos Hernandez to force their way into the picture. In the lineup, they’ll hope for further steps forward from a promising core of hitters including Bobby Witt Jr., Vinnie Pasquantino, Nick Pratto and MJ Melendez. Youngsters like second baseman Michael Massey, outfielder Drew Waters and infielder/outfielder Nate Eaton should all get prominent looks in 2023 as well.
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Projection systems are inherently divisive, so take this for what it’s worth, but FanGraphs gives the Guardians a slight edge on the Twins in 2023, with the White Sox in third place, followed by the Royals and the Tigers. Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA, meanwhile, projects the Twins ever so slightly ahead of Cleveland, followed by Chicago in third place, Detroit in fourth and Kansas City in fifth.
Who do you think will win the AL Central?
Just another season of a few teams spending all the money, just another season of too many games, just another season of Mike Trout (fragile guy) missing 40+ games, just another season of the season beginning too early as usual, just another season of the season ending too late as usual, just another season of overhyped players like Dansby Swanson the obese/gross Vladimir Guerrero Jr, just another season of boring/slow-paced games, just another season of the homerun/strikeout/walk and nothing else, etc. Done with baseball.
“Done with baseball”
And yet here you are commenting on a baseball website…
Cleveland. I think they’re better equipped to handle the grind of a long season & it’s inevitable injuries.
It was close between the Guards and the Twins but I chose the Guards for one reason: Jose Ramirez. I thought he should’ve been the MVP last year. Judge got the Yankees out to a great start, but in the second half they started to fade. Judge couldn’t save them then. Without Ramirez, his team might not have made the PO. Much more important to his team.
I’m a huge Jram fan and a proud yankee hater and I think that opinion is absurd.
Judge had one of the best offensive seasons in the last 20 years and was the engine of their run production.
He had a 1.2 OPS in the second half vs .980 in the first, what more could he have done exactly?
As a White Sox fan, I hate to agree with this, but they do have the best depth among the three real division contenders. White Sox may have the most talent among their starters, but it’s been hard to see with the constant injuries. Cleveland also has Francona. I’m not sure how good Grifol will be, but I strongly believe the difference between Francona and TLR was about 10 wins a year.
The Royals are 14-2 in Spring Training. Even with a small regression I would expect a 100 win season. Is there really any other answer to the poll question? A young team with 2 proven starting pitchers and a reworked bullpen and coaching staff. What could possibly go wrong?
We’ll always have Surprise.
Well, they still seem short at a few positions and pitching staff. I think 100 is a stretch, but I can see them challenging the Sox for third place.
I don’t think most people realize you are taking about Surprise Arizona the home of their spring training facility. I thought it was a great comment.
Is the world ending? Steve Adams, MLBTR’s resident comma fetishist, forgot one!
“Zunino, in particular is an all-or-nothing hitter at the plate…”
Whew, I read on and saw that he’s back to his old tricks by throwing in wholly unnecessary ones in:
“Jimenez can spend significant time at DH, too, now that…”
“(and, in Farmer’s place, even behind the plate in a pinch)”
No commas before too when it modifies a clause and no commas after conjunctions when starting a sentence. Simple rules in the major style guides that Steve thinks he’s too good for, or something.
I also had hope that Steve’s body had been over by someone who follows basic tenets of punctuation and syntax when he started a sentence with “meanwhile.” Alas, he then destroyed this sentence with that very word:
“Baez and Rodriguez, meanwhile, didn’t live up to their respective contracts.”
One day, Steve will hang it up and stop making a mockery of language.
Cue the English-haters calling me a “loser,” telling me to “shut up” (are you too much of a neanderthal to click the mute button if I trigger you so much?), or my favorite: a pedant. Damn right I’m a pedant!
this is the cheapest division in all of sports, they should add salary floors for certain divisions, ex: both the central divisions spend a lot less then other teams.
Now that there is balanced schedules they should do away from division winners automatically making the playoffs.
Agreed dusty, go with the top 7 records in Each league. Drop the east/west/central divisions.
YES! Absolutely yes.
Geography is so ….irrelevant.
Cubs are the only financial Goliath out of the 10 Central teams. Good for your fanbase in that after this reset, they should be entitled to at least make the postseason every year like NYY/LAD unless they are poorly run.
There will not and should not be forced spending until there is a hard cap that doesn’t blow away what mid/small market teams can do with their lower geographic revenue streams.
It won’t happen b/c everyone makes money, including the intended design of feeder teams rotating in/out of rebuild status.
The cubs and cardinals pull extremely well. St. Louis doesn’t have the population but they cast a very wide net and pull in multiple cities that include Memphis and Nashville.
Cincinnati should pull better given their location, having Columbus, Nashville, Louisville and Knoxville all in their market. The problem for the Reds is the Braves pull hard from Nashville, Knoxville and Chattanooga.
Columbus is split pretty evenly between Cleveland and Cincy
Which is another way of saying it is still a college football city. 🙂
Btw: I was ready to write college town but I remembered that Columbus (941,364) has by far the largest population of any city in Ohio, more than doubling those in Cleveland (363,367) and Cincinnati (309,317).
Not wrong, most people I know do not follow MLB at all but everyone follows the Buckeyes here. CLE and Columbus metro areas are similar in size (just over 2 mil), despite how much Columbus has outgrown CLE in the past ~50 years
The 4 lowest MLB payrolls are:
Oakland
Baltimore
Pittsburgh
Tampa.
East and West Coasts and no teams in AL Central.
Pittsburgh is not on the coast. Or even close to it really. About a 5 hour drive.
Cleveland is on the shore of a very large lake. The North Coast?
Maybe that is because Chicago is the only major media market that plays in the central… ever think about that one?
New York, Boston, Toronto and the dc area (Baltimore) are massive. As is Los Angeles, San Francisco, Dallas, Philadelphia, Atlanta, and Houston. Seattle and Denver also completely lock down their markets being that they are the only baseball teams in their areas.
Meanwhile, the central divisions are relatively close. The white Sox and brewers have to share the market with the cubs. The royals have to share their market with the vastly more popular cardinals, Pittsburg and Cincinnati are both small and have their markets cut out as well. (Cincinnati loses a large part of Tennessee to the Braves and Pittsburg loses market to the Phillies.
We should just do AL and NL since the playoff rules essentially changed in favor of it last year. Winning your division doesn’t mean what it used to.
MLB should not schedule games to be played in Chicago, Cleveland, Detroit or Minnesota, until at least the middle of April. Comparing stats of guys who play in domes or the south, to guys playing in 38-degree rain, is a joke.
It’s the same thinking that schedules Packers at Minnesota in September in a dome and Minnesota at Packers on the day closest to Christmas.
I know not playing in those cities in the first half of April is impossible—you really can’t start the season with a 6-14 road trip.
I am interested in seeing, with the more balanced schedule, how MLB handles situations of postponements, especially early in the season.
As an example, the Cubs, before April 12th host the Rangers and Mariners on six consecutive dates. How in the world do the make up or reschedule these things if they get postponed?
Is there a rule that they must play a DH the following day? If not, a team like Seattle may be forced to fly into Chicago on an mutual off day in September. Teams have limited off days to begin with and a “rain out” isn’t necessarily an “off” day.
I estimate the temperature rises about 2 degrees per week from April through June, so even a one-week delay might be helpful.
You raise a good point about make up games. Maybe MLB should:
– start the season two weeks later
– have Mondays be off days, league wide, so make up games can be more easily scheduled
– reduce the number of games from 162, to 154
– play 7 inning double headers on Saturdays (with division opponents only) ie. 1:00 PM and 6:00 PM
Leave extra April dates open and play any needed make-up games then. If you don’t need them it’s OK because the kids are still in school and the weather sucks. Genius!
You already had this poll back in January.
mlbtraderumors.com/2023/01/mlbtr-poll-american-lea…
And now it’s March in the middle of spring training. Things change!!
@miggy4prez
Righ… but we didn’t have a similar poll for the other divisions back in January.
Doesn’t get the coasts bias once and the complaints start
Not detroit
Next year dude. Next year.
I’m picking Minnesota.
Same. On paper, they look better than anyone else in the division. They should win it. They’ll be an early playoff out, though.
Cleveland; they’ve gotten better and didn’t lose anyone significant this off-season. The chances that a development powerhouse like them get a prospect to step-up and perform well is also likely.
I see Cleveland being the favorite. Twin likely to challenge. Chicago will trip over themselves. Detroit will rebound and surprise. KC will show that if you don’t sign players with upside, you get what you bought.
Twins led the division most of the season until the injuries piled up. Better depth this year so they should win:)
Twins starters need more opportunities to throw quality starts. There were too many games last year that had innings pitches dominated by the bullpen.
Both the starters and the bullpen last year were built to fail over a full season. Signing archer and Bundy knowing full well they can’t get through 5 innings was never going to work.
It’s going to be tight between the Twins and Indians, but I’m going with the Twins to win the division. Somewhere around 86 to 88 wins.
It really depends on if Buxton stays healthy. He can carry them IF he stays on the field. This is coming from a Guardians fan…
153 people voted for KC? I didn’t know that there were so many people from Kansas City on this site.
Who cares, Guards clear
my heart says the Cleveland baseball team should win it. Yes they over-performed last season, however, they did address their glaring weaknesses (no HR & a guaranteed out @ C). But then we all know that bullpens rarely do great year to year. I could see the ChiSox giving them a run, if they can stay healthy, but they lost Abreu who absolutely feasts on Cleveland pitching. I voted for the Tribe and will listen to as many games as possible!
Thank you for not referring to the Cleveland baseball team with the ridiculous name they have now. Indians forever!
Ok, who voted Tigers and or Royals?
Tigers and Royals fans, I’d imagine.
I mean wishful thinking but not bad to have some optimism I guess.
It’s still spring training……….
Most difficult to predict in the AL.
Chicago under performed last year and could bounce back this year. The Twins are on the mix.
I went with Cleveland but not confidently. Solid pitching is hard to beat.
I can honestly see those three teams finishing in any order. If I had to put money on it, I’d bet on Cleveland for the depth and having the best manager, but it wouldn’t be with great confidence.
It’s truly rough when people feed the trolls… I voted for the Twins as I don’t think the White Sox’s pitching staff is as scary this year and I believe the Twins have improved where the needed to. I don’t have trust in the Guardians’ young core to not succumb to a sophomore slump.
Detroit and Kansas City seem to be a mess, but I expect the Tigers to rebound quicker.
Every team in the AL Central will be much better than last year except the Tigers. I think Cleveland has the pitching and the position players are making themselves known. Minnesota look like they have a good team but I said that a couple years ago then the entire team went on the IL. So Its between the Guards and Twins. The pen will determine the top team. I think the Kansas City will surprise with their your coming of age. Chicago has no defense. Detroit has no order.
Guards
Twins
Royals
White Sox
Tigers
I picked the White Sox banking on a return to health of a team ravaged by injuries last year. Also, not having a clueless manager this year can’t hurt right?
Biggest improvement for the White Sox could be having Lynn all year and Kopech turning a corner. Cease, Lynn, Kopech all pitching well would be a formidable rotation. Giolito is in a contract year so he’ll be incentivized. Clevinger is a dark horse, but after his return from TJ, he was down 2mph on his fastball and is over 30.
I vote for Cleveland, but I won’t check that stupid name. To me, they’re the Indians.
The Guardians will be fine without your support
Based on fan attendance, no, the Guardians need as much support as they can get.
I’m with ya Milt. Indians forever!
Just call them the Guar Indians.
I think the Guardians will win the Central, but hoping the Twins can compete for it,
Best pitching usually prevails between teams that are close, ergo, its Clev’s to win. Minny seems better on paper but for me there remains a lot of “show me” with that pitching staff. Sox cant possibly be worse than last year, they just underperform it seems, and ugly fielding. KC on the rise but a way to go b4 theyre competing, and Detroit …what a hot mess.
The Sox’ fielding seems likely to improve. Their OAA for the infield was exactly 0, so league average. It was their OF OAA that tanked, which has largely been resolved by having Colas and AB instead of Vaughn (shudders at the memory) and Eloy. Defense won’t the strength of this club, but it should improve to near league average.
As for pitching, Giolito is the biggest question mark for me. If he returns to form, having Cease, Gio, and Lynn at the top of the rotation matches up well against any top 3 in the division. Clevinger is a question mark, but I don’t expect much from a #5 starter. All that to say, while I expect some regression from Cease, probably enough that Bieber is once again the best pitcher in the division, I don’t think pitching is what will undo the Sox this year. I think it’ll be whether their offense can finally get in sync and hit some HR’s. You are right, though, that they’ve underperformed in recent years.
Bad injury luck for both the Twins and Sox certainly hurt them a lot last year. I’m hoping for that to not be a factor again.
Spiders or Twins. I voted for the Spiders.
The Spiders aren’t an option.
As long as the Sox fail to be able to hit the rotation in Cleveland, the Guardians will likely win it again this season.
Not convinced. The balanced schedule means fewer head-to-head matchups, so if Cleveland wins the season series by a game or two, that can easily be undone by the Sox doing better against other teams. They went into the last series with a chance to win the season series against Cleveland, lost a tough one at the start, then just gave up. I don’t think it’ll be one-sided this year.
Detroit tigers
Man everybody’s gonna have a Stroke When they get the surprise of their lives when the Tigers win the central If they stay healthy 80 or 85% Of the season at least There’s no way Our players are going to be as bad as they were last year poof (wakes up from his dream) awww son of beach I hate it when I dream Lol no but seriously Please God Guide the Tigers to a Cinderella season and at least make the playoffs lmfao
The WhiteSox stay Healthy and win the Division. Kopech has a great year.
Possible, but also possible that they can’t stay healthy and can’t re-learn all the fundamentals they forgot under TLR and win 80-85. Even a path to 75 wins in there. The division has had 3 winners in the last 3 years, so who knows what this year brings?
Excited for this season as a Guards fan. Hope I just didn’t jinx it
I really wished they’d have been renamed the Spiders. I get that Guardians is more Cleveland-centric, but Spiders is just a much better name, imo.
Between More_Than_4000_AB_In_MLB and BenBenBen, there’s an awful lot of crying for attention on this post. Muddies the waters for those of who came to a baseball site to, I don’t know, talk about baseball?
Oh crap! Commas! I dared to use commas. Call the pedantic grammar police and have them throw me in the nearest maximum security prison for my dissolute ways! Guess I won’t be coming back, either.
He’s trying to make all of us ‘comma’tose.
The key for the White Sox is for guys like Anderson, Grandal, Jimenez, Moncada and Robert to stay healthy and be in the same line up then all of the baseball can finally see the hype of the White Sox’s offense. Plain and simple. If these guys can stay healthy along with the starting rotation then the White sox will run away with the division.