The American League Central has had three different winners in the past three years. The Twins took the top spot in both 2019 and the shortened 2020 season but have since seen injuries hamper them significantly in the past two campaigns. A resurgent White Sox club took over in 2021, making the playoffs for a second consecutive year for the first time in franchise history. Many thought those two clubs would be battling it out in 2022 but a young Guardians team pulled off a surprise upset as both the Twins and Sox were snakebit by poor health. During that time, both the Royals and Tigers have been struggling to come out of rebuilds.
With just over three weeks until pitchers and catchers report, how much has the picture changed this offseason? There’s are still a few unsigned free agents and some trades could always change the picture, but let’s take a look at where things stand now.
Cleveland Guardians – 2022 Record: 92-70, projected 2023 fWAR: 45.1
The Guardians were the youngest team in baseball last year and expectations were fairly modest at this point one year ago. However, they snuck up on everyone and took the crown. Many will debate whether it was sustainable or a fluke, but they’ve gone into the offseason in a good position to repeat. Since so much of the roster was young and controllable, their most notable free agents were Austin Hedges and Bryan Shaw. That means the vast majority of the club that won 92 games last year will be back, with plenty more exciting prospects potentially joining them throughout the year.
Since they lost so few players at the end of last year, it’s been a fairly quiet winter for the club so far. However, they did make two notable additions by signing Josh Bell and Mike Zunino. Those two should help bolster the squad, and there will also be reinforcements coming from within. Prospects Brayan Rocchio, George Valera and Logan Allen all reached Triple-A last year and could make their MLB debuts this year, with Tanner Bibee, Daniel Espino and others not far behind.
Chicago White Sox – 2022 Record: 81-81, projected 2023 fWAR: 40.6
The Sox won 93 games in 2021 and were picked by many for a repeat in 2022. Unfortunately, many of their lineup regulars spent significant time on the injured list or disappointed or both. The rotation got huge results from Dylan Cease and Johnny Cueto but the rest of the rotation dealt with various ailments and slumped when on the mound. Manager Tony La Russa also dealt with health issues down the stretch and decided not to return to the dugout for 2023, leading to the hiring of Pedro Grifol.
They lost Cueto in free agency, along with their long-time fan favorite José Abreu. It’s hoped that Andrew Vaughn can come in from the outfield and take over for Abreu at first, which should at least help the team by subtracting his awful defense on the grass. Andrew Benintendi was signed to take over one of the outfield spots in Vaughn’s absence while Mike Clevinger was signed to replace Cueto in the rotation. It’s a fairly similar roster to the ones that won 93 games two years ago and 81 games last year. Better health might be enough to get them back to the 2021 form, but they’ve already lost their closer for an undetermined amount of time with Liam Hendriks starting treatment for non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma.
Minnesota Twins – 2022 Record: 78-84, projected 2023 fWAR: 42.0
After two straight divisions titles in 2019 and 2020, it’s been two disappointing campaigns in Minnesota. A mountain of injuries kept them below .500 in each of the two most recent campaigns. They were also facing the loss of a superstar this winter as Carlos Correa opted out of his contract and seemed unlikely to return. He then underwent one of the most surprising trips through free agency in recent memory, agreeing to a 13-year deal with the Giants that was later scuttled when the club grew concerned by the long-term health of his right leg. Correa then agreed to a 12-year deal with the Mets, though that agreement was also kiboshed by the medicals. That culminated in Correa coming back to Minnesota on a six-year guarantee with four vesting options.
Getting Correa back is a nice coup for the Twins but it still means they’ve effectively ended up back where they started. Christian Vázquez was signed to replace the departing Gary Sánchez and they’ve also taken a gamble on a Joey Gallo bounceback, but the roster currently looks fairly similar to the one that disappointed last year. Better health alone could get them right back into the race and they hired a new head athletic trainer to try to help in that department. However, it wouldn’t be surprising if injuries were an issue again since many of their key players appear to be prone to IL trips.
Detroit Tigers – 2022 Record: 66-96, projected 2023 fWAR: 30.0
The Tigers were a popular sleeper pick for a postseason berth about this time last year. They had many exciting prospects on the cusp of their debuts, including Riley Greene and Spencer Torkelson. They decided the time was right to strike by signing Javier Báez and Eduardo Rodriguez, as well as upgrading via trade. Unfortunately, just about everyone on the roster had a disappointing season, especially on offense. The team hit just .231/.286/.346 for a wRC+ of 81 that was dead last in the majors. Their collective 110 home runs was also last and 17 behind the nearest team.
It seems like 2023 will be about figuring out how to proceed. The club fired general manager Al Avila and brought in Scott Harris as president of baseball operations. Since then, they’ve traded away a couple of relievers in Joe Jiménez and Gregory Soto while also signing a couple of starters to one-year deals in Matthew Boyd and Michael Lorenzen. It seems the all-in approach is on hold until they figure out which parts of their roster to build around.
Kansas City Royals – 2022 Record: 65-97, projected 2023 fWAR: 30.7
The Royals have finished below .500 in each of the past six seasons. Their attempted rebuild was failing to bear fruit, which led to major shakeups this winter. Both manager Mike Matheny and president of baseball operations Dayton Moore were fired, with Matt Quatraro now in the skipper’s chair and J.J. Picollo the chief baseball decision maker. The roster changes have been fairly modest so far this winter, with Zack Greinke the most notable departure, though he’s still a free agent. The additions include Jordan Lyles, Ryan Yarbrough and Aroldis Chapman.
The club has some exciting young players in Bobby Witt Jr., Vinnie Pasquantino and MJ Melendez, but many of their top draft choices have gone to pitchers that have disappointed thus far. Daniel Lynch, Kris Bubic, Jackson Kowar, Alec Marsh, Jonathan Bowlan and Asa Lacy were all taken in the first or second round of the draft and haven’t yet delivered much to be excited about. However, Brady Singer showed in 2022 that the narrative can be flipped. Turning young players into viable big leaguers is key for a club that doesn’t throw around piles of cash in free agency. The recent lack of success in that regard has hurt them and they’ll need to do better somehow.
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While the Tigers and Royals seem likely to be using this year to evaluate younger players, the other three clubs all have a plausible path to winning the division. The Guardians are reigning champs and have added Bell to give them some extra thump. The Sox have stars like Tim Anderson, Luis Robert and Dylan Cease but just need everyone to stay healthy. It’s a similar story for the Twins who have elite players like Correa and Byron Buxton but need to keep them and others off the injured list. The three clubs are separated by just 4.5 projected WAR, according to FanGraphs, which points to an exciting battle in the upcoming campaign.
What do you think? Can the Guardians repeat or will one of their competitors surpass them? Have your say in the poll below.
(poll link for app users)
Don’t sleep on the Sox. Sleep in them.
That’s how you know it’s business time.
FOTC references always appreciated
I really tried to choose the White Sox but my hand kept shaking and going back on it’s own to the Guardians. As a Sox fan it comes down to the utter futility of this off season of wasted opportunities. Instead of signing a couple of International FA’s like usual, They acted like they were at Walmart at 11 PM on Black Friday and went in and bought all the crap nobody wanted hoping to sell it at the Flea Market.
Twins
Sox
Guardians
Twins will have a couple highly touted prospects finally pan out and that’ll be a real good lineup. Same w white Sox. Couple of those hyped guys will get a full quality season under their belt. Guardians regress
You say the White Sox and Twins have prospects who will pan out… without mentioning the the Guardians have a top 3 farm system with like 6 top guys ready to break out?
A case of fanboy > logic
Why do people get all bent out of shape what comments others write or other people who just love to make predictions.It’s all a bunch of B.S.We’ll all see in oct which teams are good and those that suck.
Same reason you just did GCB, it’s called life. So get over it.
I don’t have to get over anything i made a comment in the comment section.
Not a fan. I am a fan of AL central though ! Most underrated division in baseball.
Brooks Lee > any player on Cleveland’s farm and will finish the season as one of the top players in the central.
The Twins are always the little engine that couldn’t…
Guess this is why they call you “Big Whiffa.”
Yeah I went with the Twinkies
Phew! I was hoping you would tell us your vote. Now I can rest easy. Thanks!!
@Clepto_ your welcome
The Best news for the White Sox for 2023 is that LaRussa is gone. The second best news would be the Sox team Dr. was arrested for Malpractice.
Spiders
Twins
Sox
Royals
Tigers
Man Spiders sounds much better than Guardians. As an Asian Indian (not exactly the same, but still “Indian”), it quite literally offends me we are offensive enough to not even mention. Are we now going to pretend Indians don’t even exist to feel better about ourselves? I would bet it’s more about shame than about actually not offending Native Indians.
DTR: I agree. What’s frequently missed is that in the 18th – mid-20th century, Native Americans were despised, and thought of as savages & uncivilized peoples. Nobody thinking the name is clever, disparaging, or intentionally offensive would’ve named a professional sports team the Indians or Redskins. Both were done in an honorary fashion. Only 16 or so mlb teams in the world at that time and they wouldn’t do that in jest, especially with many (perhaps a majority) of the US citizens having a historically negative view of Native peoples.
But the name was canceled because of 21st Century people that don’t understand history or perhaps choose not to. Instead, its erasure is more offensive than the original name itself, imho. And the American Indian name simply spoke to Columbus’ geographical ignorance than anything else.
Our family lineage has been traced all the way back to the Eerie Indians of NY, PA, and OH, which are an extinct tribe now (subsumed by the Iroquois in the mid-17th Century). I always thought the sports teams’ names were honorary and never interpreted them as being Racially, ethnically, or culturally biased or derogatory.
Also, the US isn’t chasing Indians off their reservations anymore. People don’t have to obsess with history, but they certainly don’t need to ignore it either. People should learn and accept. My college is considering being renamed because the founder owned slaves. It’s absurd. I spent money getting college clothing, only to find it may be something else later on. History has a lot of injustices, but we have to consider context. The man who ended slavery owned slaves. Relativism has to be considered.
Sorry, 24 teams, not 16. Point still stands.
Yes Chief Wahoo is honorary.
That’s such a great observation. You erase history then we are doomed to repeat it instead of learning from it. This is not to mention the Indians only came to be after the Cleveland Naps’ star player, Nap Lajoi retired (or left).
I am also not offended at the motorcycle name, Indian. It’s a positive association with the name, not a negative one.
The word Indian doesn’t include the name of their mascot. It’s also different to change a symbol vs changing a name.
Green lantern: So a cartoonish drawing for a sports team is what’s offensive? Look at the origin of the name!! You’re offended by a cartoon drawing of a sports team? – that’s insane to me.
I am assuming you didn’t even know there was an original mascot that did not resemble the current one and it was completed by a high school senior, Walter Goldbach.
Yes.
Can you imagine if we named em the Cleveland naps in his honor again, ohhhh God forbid lmao
My college is considering being renamed because the founder owned slaves.
==========================
It’s all pretty silly. I’d bet that every culture in the entire world once had slaves. That’s the way it was. Once you conquered another territory, you typically enslaved them. Even if you were just a regular citizen, your average lifestyle was probably mush.
The whole idea of equality might not be 150 years old. That’s a tiny percentage of the 6,000 years we’ve been around.
Past that, great comment. I like that Notre Dame is the Fighting Irish, and that Boston is the Celtics, and that Iona are the Gaels.
I really can’t tell if this is sarcastic or genuine. Some things you say sound factual, while others seem like exaggerated statements. My point is basically history happened and the man who founded the college, like most rich old white guys with the money to do so at the time, owned slaves. His primary connection is founding the college, not promoting slavery. He wasn’t Andrew Jackson.
They will always be the Indians.
Not me.
My family fought in the American Revolution.
We did a good thing, for everyone in the world, throwing off the yoke of despotism and monarchy.
Too bad none of these spoiled rotten peolp ehave any idea whatsoever…..how good they’ve got it and why….
And it’s hard to change your thought processes when you get old. I didn’t bother reading the article (what article?) and just went to vote…but couldn’t find the Indians.
I’m 23. Relax.
I was in no way refering to you. Just to myself.
Team names are something about for awhile. The word “Indians”, to me, is not offense. Redskins, that’s definitely offensively. I don’t think “Braves” is either. I’ve.I’ve always thought of it as describing the bravery of Indians. When the name changing began some people wondered why the “Blackhawks” should change theirs. It’s the name of an Indian tribe in Illinois and the tribal leaders gave the team permission to idk IDK. There are (we’re?) some high schools in Illinois where the boys teams were called the captains and the girls teams the first mates.That’s definitely not cool.
I would think the people who should be asked if it’s offensive or not are the indigenous communities who live in the area. I’ll go do my research, but I believe it’s because these native communities came forward and said these sports team names and logos are offensive to us as a community, could you please stop using them? If a bunch of white people decided to change these names on a whim to be politically correct or whatever, without any input from the groups who are supposedly harmed, well that would be pretty silly.
Different issue, but here: washingtonpost.com/local/new-poll-finds-9-in-10-na…
For MLB, it’s evenly divided, though the polls don’t have Native Indians’ input. Regardless, in many situations, the voices heard the loudest aren’t always representative of the majority. Consider hate towards sports players and GMs. Clearly, not every fan is this extreme. For lack of an MLB poll of just Native Indians, I figure this may just be a bunch of white guys telling people to get offended like they have done for quite a while.
I’ve been an Indians fan my entire life but couldn’t care less what the team calls themselves. As long as the team stays in Cleveland, I don’t care what they call themselves.
Ignorant S-O-B, see there you go making it all about race. All you talk about is old white men, how Bauer is a bad guy and why everything is offensive, it’s annoying.
@mydogcrowder I don’t recall ever posting about Bauer. But I post a lot on here, so I may have forgotten one. Also I am never offended by anything on here, maybe you got me mixed up with someone else. Cheers; it’s the weekend.
Sox have the best five man rotation to start the season, and the best offense if the starters stay on the field, I like the White Sox.
White Sox are looking pretty good, at least on paper. I can see a dog fight between Cleveland & Chicago, however, that Cleveland staff doesn’t make me feel comfortable. 4 of 5 have ERAs over 4. That’s not sustainable.
Sorry but the sox supposedly look good on paper every season, give that line a rest, it ain’t gonna happen.
Cleveland had Bieber, McKenzie, and Quant all start 30+ games with an ERA under 3.5
Good point, but look at the ballpark. The average runs allowed per 9 and ERA+ for those guys would somewhat negate that.
Those three matchup fairly well with Chicago’s – Cease, Lynn, and Giolito – I’d actually give the edge to Cleveland if you are just looking at the frontline starters, but I like Chicago’s four and five with Clevinger and Kopech.
Espino could give that edge to Cleveland if he gets the call.
I’m a lot higher on Lynn and Giolito than most, still believe both are capable of piling up innings and strikeouts.
It would be a miracle if Clevinger did anything positive. Kopech gives the team four solid starters.
I think Clevinger is going to pull into SP2 by the end of the season, so we see that a little differently.
@CKinSTL
My apologies. I was looking at 2023 projections for their ERAs.
Twins 88-74
White Sox 83-79
Guardians 81-81
Royals 70-92
Tigers 67-95
Yeah: Plesac, Civale, and Quantrill are okay. None of those three are #1 or #2 guys. They need Bieber to be an ace and they need McKenzie to blossom further. With some of the exciting arms they have coming up I keep hoping they would ship someone like Plesac out and let the fifth spot be something of an open audition spot. I’d like to see Morris, Gaddis, Curry, Cantillo, maybe even Battenfield get looks this year. I’m sure injuries will happen. But I’d prefer a roster construction that allows you to bring up and down a 5th starter as needed to give yourself an extra bullpen arm or bench player.
I hope they don’t just put Morris in the bullpen forever as I think he in particular has the best upside as a starter of anyone they’re likely going to have at AAA aside from maybe Cantillo.
Completely agree col chest
Cleveland of course
Too much talent on the White Sox. They are my pick. Last year was worst case scenario
Wouldnt call it worst case. The issues with the offense are real and losing Abreu only makes it worse. I agree that they are a mild favorite but they werent some 95 win team that had everything go bad either.
I think almost everything realistically bad that could have happened, happened. White Sox have Abreu 2.0 in Andrew Vaughn and added Benintendi with Colas on the way. Not to mention a younger, smarter, transformed coaching staff. They hired a new director for analytics who won a WS with Washington in 2019 and seems to be a master in his field. As a diehard sox fan (although there is bias) I see them easily winning the AL central.
Nothing wrong w being a fan. I think they are a slight favorite but this team still lacks power, doesnt walk and is poor defensively. It was easy last year to just blame LaRussa for everything. This was supposed to be a org that was competing for WS and wonder if that window is closed already.
If the Sox are at full strength, they don’t really have any holes in the lineup, you could say RF and 2B, but for the most part, the Sox can hit one thru nine.
They don’t have any holes except RF and 2nd and 3rd and C. Other than that, they can hit 1-9.
Problem is there are holes in their gloves. They lost a few games last year with suspect defense.
When he plays, Moncada is an excellent defender at third. They are one short in the OF and grandal should be banned from ever getting behind the plate in a major league game ever again. But their most glaring problem is at 2b. This will be the third straight season without one. Instead it’ll be minor leaguers and utility players yet again. And you can’t underestimate the negative effect tlr had on the team. He took a contender and completely demoralized them. Injuries hurt the team last year and LaRussa hurt the team the most.
I think the Guardians are a better team, better manager, more cohesive in terms of playing together and clubhouse unity, and with their prospects, I’d make them the favorites to win the division.
I picked the Sox though cause I’m Sox fan.
How will the more balanced schedule hit the AL Central? They’ll have fewer games against each other, and especially against the Tigers and Royals. That’s probably going to depress win totals, right? Same deal in the NL Central, fewer games against the Reds and Pirates.
Every division has their whipping boys.
Guardians play run prevention better than the others and that could be huge with winning close games. I think they’ll repeat as division champs but the Twins will be competitive if the pitching holds.
Run scoring is literally just as important. What is the logic behind the “pitching wins championships” when the other gleam can just “outpitch” yours by shutting down your offense more? It’s one and the same idea. The team with more runs wins, not the one with better pitching.
For lack of a better option I’m going guardians for the run back. The best offense is a good defense or vice versa depending on your take!
tht.fangraphs.com/pitching-almost-always-wins-cham…
ERA+ and OPS+ are completely different. The guy is comparing apples to oranges. The guy should use opponent OPS vs team OPs or runs/9 instead. Obviously runs predict games better than OPS. That hardly proves anything new other. Fangraphs is flawed, though many of us knew that already.
Coming from the Rangers fan, you of all people should know that good pitching is needed.
Of course it is needed with teams that score 5 runs and give up 6. It’s not quite as important for teams with lower scoring games. Think of the Padres when they had Jake Peavy or the MS when they had King Felix. 13-12 with a 2.27 ERA
The fangraphs thing isn’t quite saying what people think it is. Literally, scoring 2 more runs is the same as allowing 2 fewer runs. There is no factual basis to say that a neutral team needs pitching more than hitting. Also, consider how relievers have really volatile seasons and many guys have 1 great year. Look at Neal Cotts, Robbie Ross, Tanner Scheppers, Shawn Tolleson, etc.
The reason good pitching ‘trumps’ good hitting in a small and limited sample is that teams have far greater control over the nature and extent of pitcher contributions than they do hitters.
Sticking with Mets, if Jacob degrom (RIP) is feeling it one night, as good pitching tends to do, it is entirely within a teams control to pitch him 9 innings. Likewise, they may pitch Edwin Diaz three innings in a game 7 as there is no need to consider tomorrow. Or you pitch him directly against the opposing teams heart of the lineup.
Conversely, Pete alonso hits once every nine batters. The end. Period. And in a small sample, the circumstances of when he’s hitting and whether he’s positioned to make the most significant impact with his ‘good hitting,’ are largely outside of a teams immediate control within the context of a single game.
Teams are better positioned to exploit the impact of good pitching than they are good hitting, thus it can be more impactful in the course of a short and important series.
That would have been a fair point historically, but we don’t see 250 IPs anymore or even 200 IPs. Pitchers are too weak and whiny to go that long. Teams baby even the backend guys to where even your worst guys who can go 225 during a noncompetitive season will only go 175 or so. I saw Rodon’s innings this year and thought he missed time. It turns out he actually made 31 starts. Also, note your link compares OPS+ to ERA+. There will always be a stronger correlation between ERA and wins than percentage stats due to clutch. What matters is run prevention vs run creation. Fangrpahs ingores that. Also, 1 starter is more valuable that one hitter, but a bullpen guy isn’t as important. Thus, even with Diaz, he isn’t going 3 innings multiple times in a series.
I think it again comes down to the same three that it did last year. (No disrespect to the Tigers and Royals and I think their rebuilds are coming along nicely, I just think they’re further away.) Of the other three, I think they all have a high ceiling but they also each have a very realistic scenario of everything going wrong.
The Guardians have youth, which can be good or bad. For every player that takes another step forward, it’s just as possible that someone regresses. The rotation thins out after the top three, but their bullpen is elite and they’ll always be in games because they do the little things well and can put hits together, and Francona gets this team to overachieve pretty much every year. They have a lot of prospects that are pretty close to being ready to help too. The White Sox could have an elite rotation, but it would require some combination of Lynn/Giolito rebounding and Clevinger becoming what he was a few years ago. Their bullpen is pretty good and their lineup is pretty deep, but they have pretty much no depth whatsoever so there’s little to no margin for error. I think being rid of La Russa is addition by subtraction though. The Twins have elite talent in the lineup, but I’m not even sure that a new trainer can keep Buxton et al healthy for a full year. The rotation is okay and the bullpen isn’t very good outside of Duran, but they were in it for most of the year before they just imploded at the end of the year. I’m also not really sure that Rocco can make the right decisions late in games to get them a few extra wins.
There’s a lot going on here, but I haven’t really seen much to think that the order will change. The Guardians (in theory) should only improve with more experience, the White Sox have a ton of talent but they’re getting older and have no depth, and the Twins will hit a ton if they’re healthy but I don’t know if they’ll pitch enough. I’d probably stick with that same order, but I’m sure this will all look great when we look back at this in October.
Should be a tough division. I like CLE as the best roster on paper but could absolutely see the Twins and or White Sox also winning the division or making a run at a wild card. Could have three good teams at the top.
Between Detroit and KC, there’s a ton of talent. Can’t totally fall asleep on either one of them clawing to win 80 games, either. Some of the best young prospects in the game. Should be tough division games this year in the AL Central.
Anything can happen. I think it’s more likely Cleveland is the only team above 500. A lot needs to go right for these teams to get 80 wins.
I agree Sodomojo that Cleveland should repeat but that it wouldn’t be too surprising if twins or white Sox win the division. I do however disagree that a wild card team could come out of the AL Central. The AL east and west will take those spots by a wide margin
I’m saying the guardians. I’m a Mets fan who did not like the Lindor trade or the extension.
Happy to see andres turning into who he is, and that Amed is doing well outside of NY.
Cleveland fans have a great group to root for and that SP core looks solid.
I’m a Mets fan who believes the Lindor trade benefited both teams. Love seeing those former Mets doing well in Cleveland.
Yes, but WAR, salary, and just general stats would seem to indicate Cleveland won the trade. Big win-small win situation here
This site is great for detail analysis and polls. I’d say it’s 9/10. To make it a full 10, I’d say including prior year’s Pythagorean W-L in addition to actual record. If we are using a predicting stat to look to the future, this is like now using ERA and wins instead of FIP and run differential to project. I say this because Texas in 2016 was elite in 1 run games and was 13 game better than their runs expected. 2017 wasn’t too good for them. 2022? They were 9 games worse than expected. Sure, I’m an optimistic, but ignoring the runs part assumes luck is fixed, and that only works with the past results and not with future expectations. Great article and poll, though!
As a Sox fan, the only chance that they have to win it is if all 5 starting pitchers stay healthy and pitch well.
Otherwise, their lack of depth everywhere on the field and in the minors will sink them.
Agreed… Zero rotation depth. No starter goes deep into games. Kopech avg 4.2IP per start. which will stress a very thin bullpen without Hendriks. Crochet won’t be back until late in the season. That leaves Lopez, Graveman and Bummer as the only guys you can count on. Like the rotation, no help in the minors.
Last year Moncada looked like he didn’t care. Doubt he does based on the weight he’s been adding. At 2nd, they’re counting on a grab-bag of unheralded minors. RF they’re counting on a guy trying to make the jump from AA. Robert has missed huge chunks of that last 2 seasons and his backup appears to be Jake Marisnick. Like the pitching, no help from the minors. On top of all that, they lost their best player, Abreu.
Vaughn is their best player. Abreu has always been good defensively, but he offense definitely diminished last season. I wouldn’t count too much on Graveman. The only relievers I have any confidence in is Bummer. (Hendriks, too). The reason no pitcher (except Cueto) didn’t go more than five innings is because the thinking in recent seasons is to go by innings and not pitches. I’ve never seen a pitcher taken out of a game while throwing a no-hitter until three years ago. It’s not the pitchers, it’s the managers who have changed that part of the game. That’s why Alcantara is a dinosaur.
I am an Astros fan, but I have just got mad respect for The Guardians. They do so much with so little. Francona is an absolute witch.
I don’t feel as confident with Minnesota as I do with the Sox and Guards.
I think the White Sox have the most talented roster in the division (Minnesota maybe, but they have a bunch of injury-prone guys), but Cleveland has youth on their side along with more recent experience in big games.
Or maybe Kansas City will crash the party this time. Who knows?
The White Sox infield is vastly OVERRATED.
True. I like Moncada at third and Vaughn, who played 1b in college, is still an unknown there for a full season. Anderson has had some defensive problems at SS and there is no one at 2b. Again.
Ha.. remember last year when the Tigers were the fashionable dark horse candidate?
Cleveland should dominant the division for the rest of this decade. The best team with the best farm system. Other teams look like they are closer to another rebuild.
Agreed. They’re the team to beat in the Central until they’re actually beaten. They seem much farther along than the rest of the division. Unless something goes wrong (injuries) I don’t see anyone truly competing with them in ‘23 for the Central.
Wake me up when the October Madness Tournament starts. I see the same teams as last year. I don’t care who wins a division although most the division winners will be the same. At least the draft lottery ended tanking. Every team is fully committed to being good.
A team uses more than 40 players over 162 games….usually a lot more.
A more accurate way to compare teams is to compare 40 man rosters plus the top prospects in AA and AAA, because most of those players are gonna see action.
Looking at the top 45 or so players on each team, it isn’t particularly close. Cleveland has an obvious depth advantage, esp in pitching.
Another thing to consider is the likelihood of injuries. Just like some batters have a track record of striking out a lot, some have a track record of frailty. Again, Cleveland has an advantage.
Cleveland is not only the most likely to have its best players remain healthy, it also has the best depth to cover up any injuries. Thats a hard combination to beat over 162 games.
Three illustrations of Clevelands depth:
The Guardians have four starting pitchers variously ranked on top 100 prospect lists. All four are on track to be MLB ready by midseason. It only takes one of them to provide a major boost in the rotation by late July. Those are pretty good odds.
Clevelands two utility infielders were top 100 prospects, and already at AAA sits another one.
In RF, Cleveland has two youngsters who had productive MLB debuts last year after tearing up both AA and AAA. Behind them is a top 100 prospect that got his feet wet in AAA at the end of last season. He should be MLB ready by midseason.
If we were talking about a 60 game season, it might be different, but over 162, Cleveland has the clear advantage.
The Guardians also have Terry Francona. No offense to the other managers in the division, but Francona is far and away the best of the five.
Royals
A further comment on depth…
Chicago had eleven pitchers start at least one game. 29 games were started by someone not in the normal rotation.
Cleveland had twelve. 25 games were started by someone not in the normal rotation.
Minnesota had fourteen. They had 45 games started by someone not in the normal rotation.
Another way to look at it is that Chicago and Cleveland had to basically fill one spot in the rotation, while Minnesota had to fill two.
It is unlikely that any team is gonna get much more than 130 starts out of its normal rotation, meaning that from the very beginning of the season, a team has to plan for the equivalent of a full time sixth starter.
Instead of comparing the (on paper) season opening five man rotations, it might be wiser to compare the first six.
Except for the fact, the newly used “opener” throws this arguement somewhat out the window.
Actually, it enhances the argument, IF any of the top three teams in the division even decide to use openers.
If a team is gonna at least semi consistently use openers, it has to have MORE pitchers.
Tampa, the king of openers, used 40 different guys to pitch last year. They had 13 that started at least one game.
If a team is gonna go the opener route, which AL Central team has the most pitching depth? Again, its Cleveland.
Tampa and Cleveland get well deserved props for developing and maximizing their pitching. I dont think anybody…even die hard fans…put Chicago and Minnesota in that level of company.
Abreu had a +138 wRC, Vaughn was 111. I’d argue Abreu was their best bat, you’re on Vaughn, which is fine. No Abreu in ’23 isn’t an improvement in my mind.
Someone can correct me, but Cueto averaged 6.2 innings because he had really efficient innings. Sox allowed pitchers to continue based on their pitch count not what inning it was. Like most teams, 100 pitches was pretty much the limit. Kopech specifically got high pitch counts early because he had deep counts, and his walks/9 jumped and his Ks fell off considerably. Velocity was down and his hard count rate was up. Giolito had similar issues.
Besides the pitching, you have to look at offense, with an eye on the likelihood of your best players staying healthy.
For the Twins, Buxton and Correa are elite offensive players when they are on the field. Correa has had two years in which he played in more than 136 games, his total last year. Buxton played in 92 games last year, by far the most hes played since 2017.
The two biggest bats for Chicago are Robert and Jimenez. Neither can stay healthy. Robert played in 98 games last year, far more than he did the year before. Jimenez played in 122 games as a rookie, but last years 84 games was the most since then. Both had major injury problems while in the minors.
The best player in the division is Jose Ramirez for the Guards….who has played at least 152 games five times in the last six full seasons. The other was 129. Cleveland added Josh Bell, who has played at least 143 games in a full season since after his rookie year.
So, which team is most likely to have its best position players get thru a full season healthy?
This doesn’t mean that any of this will happen, but with everything taken into account as we project the 2023 season, which team is likeliest to keep its lineup intact for the whole season?
Twins
ChiSox
Indians
Tigers
Royals
Twins should’ve won the division last year. They severely underperformed. The Indians (I’m not a snowflake offended by a mascot) outperformed expectations last year and were picked 3rd. But you know what to expect in a Terry Francona led team. So no surprise if they win the division. Tigers should have no shot as they’re “rebuilding” the rebuild. But if the expectations from last year show up they might finish third.. Royals have a nice young roster but watch them underachieve this year. Just when their fans get excited for the team.
It doesn’t make you a snowflake to call the team by their actual name lol
You are offended by a sports team changing their name.. you are so distraught about it, not only do you refuse to use their actual name, but you have to share your super-special opinion with everyone who will read. Face it, you are a snowflake.
Will be interesting to see how the balances schedule effects the Central.
At first, I was surprised to see Detroit at the bottom, below KC. How can anyone think Detroit will finish behind KC? Then fully realized that its just more people voted for KC to come in first. I feel better that Detroit fans aren’t as delusional. Here’s hoping for a .500 seaon
ABC…anybody but Cleveland. Nothing against them personally just not a fan of the superfans of the team constantly bragging how the team is run “the right way” and how great Francona is ( I 100% agree but tired of hearing it) so I will take great pride in watching them go 81-81 and come in 3rd. Yes I know I’m childish and petty
Honestly, I get being petty — but what factual argument would you have against it? Cleveland is incredibly well run, and previous years don’t matter for 2023 but over the last decade in particular, they’ve been a really good organization. They’ve consistently been a contender with a bottom five payroll and they’ve only finished below .500 once (when they went 80-82) since Francona was hired in 2013. At the very least, they’ll probably overachieve.
I have no argument against any of it..just tired of it. It is incredibly well run..they get more wins than they should year in / year out. Not disputing any of it..just don’t like it lol.
If the royals starters take a step forward and their offense doesn’t regress then they can battle for second place.
As the article points out, this time last year, I voted for my Tigers and felt pretty darn good about it. Which shows how unpredictable these predictions are. This year, I voted Twins and meant it. So . . . have fun near last place Twins!
I reluctantly voted for the Cleveland Baseball Team. They did over-perform last season, and to their credit, they’ve upgraded their offense with the additions of Bell and Mike Z. I could see the ChiSox winning it as well. They were decimated with injuries in 2022, however, I do believe they will miss Abreu in that lineup. The AL Central could be the closest divisional race of MLB in 2023
Indians*
I see a dog fight between Cleveland and Chicago. Last year, everything went wrong for the Sox except Cease’s breakout and Cueto’s surprisingly solid contribution. TLR’s baffling decisions and poor leadership, injuries, Giolito underperforming (would mention Moncada, but it seems this is just what he is now that he has his money), Lynn’s early season struggles coming back from injury, a deterioration of fundamentals, an almost team-wide lack of discipline at the plate, players giving up at the end of the year, and horrible OF defense – and they *still* finished at .500. The talent is there and if the fire and fundamentals return, this team has a very good shot at bringing the fight for the division down to the wire.
As for Minnesota, getting Correa back was unexpected, but I just haven’t seen enough pitching upgrades to make me think they’re serious about winning the division. Maybe they’ll surprise me, though. I do expect them to finish above .500 this year.
Maeda finished second in the CY voting in 2020 before blowing up his elbow in 2021 and he should be back from TJS this spring, and Mahle only threw a handful of games for MN last year and should be on the mound next month. Those are two big adds to the rotation.
It will only be a dog fight if the Guardians lose 2/5 of their rotation and the Sox lose no one (AND all of their guys perform like fans ‘hope’ they will).. The Sox go into the fetal position every time they face the Indian pitchers lately… Hopefully that changes, but until they actually show me, its more ‘status quo’ from the White Sox
Frank Thomas as painful defensively, Paul Konerko was above average, and Abreu was average. It’s not accurate to claim that Abreu’s defense has been “awful”.
The addition of Benintendi will change the entire personality of the team. If they add a good defensive catcher, the pitching staff will be far more confident to pitch to contact and throw breaking balls with runners on base.
I don’t mind the name changes if it’s offensive to someone. But that drum beat in Cleveland and tomahawk chop in Atlanta was irritating.
I am glad Cleveland changed their name. Naming your team after a racial epithet is never a good idea. I just wish that they had came up with a better nickname. The Cleveland Rockers, Spiders or almost anything else would have been better than Guardians.
It’s not a racial epithet. “Indian” was the name Christopher Columbus gave the people he saw when he fist landed in the Americas but believed he was in the West Indies (hence Indian). So, that’s the name the Spanish and Italian merchants/royalty (and subsequently the “Indians” themselves when communicating with settlers) knew them by….
A racial epithet would be the derisive term for the African slaves first brought to the Americas in droves by the Portuguese, who ruled the slave trade. That derisive name originated with a negative connotation.
If you change the name of every team that offends someone, change Cowboys, Yankees, Rays, Angels, Padres, Rangers, and on and on. In fact, you might as well do away with team names altogether because there is someone or some group offended by nearly every sports team’s name.
I don’t mind the name changes if it’s offensive to someone. But that drum beat in Cleveland and tomahawk chop in Atlanta was irritating. I won’t miss that.
Twins
Guardians
Tigers
Sox
Royals
Guardians are the favorites, only because the White Sox forget their bats when they go to play the Guardians..I guess if every pitcher gets hurt for the Guardians..maybe… . Then there are the Twins, which always seem to do well, especially when people project them finishing in the lower tier, and the Sox also have issues with teams like the Royals… Until the Sox show me they can hit good pitching and show a consistent and good effort Ill presume a 3rd or 4th place finish. After the half-@$$ed effort last season and this abhorrent off season by the Sox, they’ll need to convince me (and Im guessing many others) they are for real. Heck I think the Sox cancelled ‘Sox fest’ because they know the same thing and did not want to get booed through out the event.
IF and a big IF…..if the CWS don’t Anderson, Jimenez and Robert for half the season like they did in 2022, I expect them to win this division.
The problem is those same players (and Moncada)..Can they be motivated to play hard all year and actually produce.. I think they all got their contracts and have coasted the last couple of seasons.THe problem is if the Conditioning staff is the same, expect these guys to find all sorts of ways to be injured throughout the season.
Cleveland will take a step or two back. It’s hard to take the White-Sox or Royals seriously. I expect the Tigers to take a step forward but I will go with the Twins for winning the division.