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Julio Teheran Opts Out Of Padres Deal

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Veteran righty Julio Teheran has opted out of his minor league contract with the Padres and will become a free agent, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post (Twitter link). The Padres have interest in re-signing him, Heyman adds, but he’ll now have the opportunity to listen to the other 29 teams.

Still just 32 years of age, Teheran was once one of the sport’s most promising young arms, but fell off after a promising four-year run with the Braves in 2013-16. That stretch saw Teheran toss 795 2/3 innings of 3.33 ERA ball, nabbing a fifth-place Rookie of the Year finish and making a pair of All-Star teams along the way. Teheran remained a solid starter with Atlanta from 2017-19 but began to lose velocity and see his command worsen late in his Braves tenure.

Since leaving Atlanta, he’s pitched just 36 1/3 big league innings and been tattooed for an 8.92 ERA with nearly as many walks (11.2%) as strikeouts (13.6%). His once-93.7 mph average fastball has sat at 89.3 mph with the Angels and Tigers in 2020-21.

Teheran spent the 2022 season bouncing between the independent Atlantic League and the Mexican League, pairing those stints with a solid run in the Mexican Winter League this past offseason. That garnered him a minor league deal with the Padres, who assigned him to Triple-A after spring training. He’s opened the year with 25 innings of 6.84 ERA ball, although eight of his 19 earned runs came in one three-inning drubbing at the hands of the Mariners’ top affiliate. Teheran still sports a solid 24.8% strikeout rate and 7.7% walk rate in his limited Triple-A work thus far.

The Padres have a full rotation at the moment with Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish, Blake Snell, Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha all healthy, and they apparently didn’t want to supplant anyone from that group or in the bullpen to give Teheran an active roster spot. If the market fails to produce a big league opportunity for Teheran, it’s possible he’ll ultimately wind up back in El Paso with the Padres, though there are several clubs around the league that could use at least a short-term rotation stopgap.

Royals To Promote Maikel Garcia, Place Nicky Lopez On Injured List

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2:10pm: The Royals have now announced the Garcia and Lopez moves. Additionally, Franmil Reyes was optioned to Omaha while Freddy Fermin was recalled. Once a middle-of-the-order threat, Reyes has fallen on hard times in recent years. He’s slashing just .186/.231/.288 here in 2023.

11:14am: The Royals are set to recall infield prospect Maikel Garcia, one of the top minor leaguers in their system, Anne Rogers of MLB.com reports (via Twitter). He’ll take the roster spot of fellow infielder Nicky Lopez, who’s headed to the injured list due to appendicitis. That’s likely just a portion of a larger slate of roster moves for the Royals today, she adds.

Garcia made his big league debut as a 22-year-old last season but appeared in just nine games, batting .318/.348/.364 in a tiny sample of 23 plate appearances. He’s had a slow start to the season in Triple-A Omaha, where he’s turned in a .242/.348/.347 slash with a homer, seven doubles, four steals, a 14.3% walk rate and a 19.6% strikeout rate.

Widely regarded among the Royals’ top six prospects, Garcia lands third in their system at MLB.com, sixth at Baseball America and fifth on Keith Law’s list at The Athletic. He’s regarded as an above-average defender at shortstop with good bat-to-ball skills and solid plate discipline. Law opines that “if Garcia had even average power, he’d be a top-100 prospect” thanks to the strength of his other tools and his ability to handle multiple spots around the infield.

While Garcia has had a slow start in Omaha this year, he posted a more impressive .274/.341/.463 slash there in 186 plate appearances last year. He spent the rest of the season with Double-A Northwest Arkansas, and between the two levels he’s turned in a .285/.359/.427 with 11 homers, 34 doubles, a triple and a hearty 39 steals (in 47 tries).

Even absent an IL trip from Lopez, it’s not a surprise to see the Royals shuffling their infield mix. None of second baseman Michael Massey (.167/.173/.179, 81 plate appearances), third baseman Hunter Dozier (.161/.212/.226, 66 plate appearances) or shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. (.222/.266/.393, 124  plate appearances) has performed well at the plate so far in 2023. Garcia provides an option at any of those spots if the Royals want to make an early change. (Presumably, Witt has the longest leash given the high regard in which he’s held and a generally strong debut campaign in 2022.)

Like Massey, Dozier and Witt, the 28-year-old Lopez has also gotten out to a sluggish start in 2023. Through his first 67 plate appearances, the slick-fielding Lopez carries just a .200/.323/.291 batting line. The entire Kansas City offense has been anemic in 2023, with first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino, outfielder Edward Olivares and catcher Salvador Perez as the only regulars turning in even average offensive output on the year. (First baseman Nick Pratto and utilityman Matt Duffy have hit well, too, albeit in much smaller samples. Given the struggles up and down the lineup, it stands to reason that if Garcia is able to produce at the plate, the Royals will find a way to work him into the mix moving forward.

Didi Gregorius Signs With Mexican League’s Algodoneros de Unión Laguna

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The Algodoneros de Unión Laguna of the Mexican League announced that they have signed infielder Didi Gregorius for the 2023 season.

Gregorius, 33, has been a regular in the majors for the past decade. He debuted with the Reds back in 2012, getting into eight games late in that season, then was dealt to the Diamondbacks that winter in a three-team deal that involved Shin-Soo Choo and many others. He spent the next two seasons in Arizona, hitting a combined 13 homers and proving difficult to strike out, though his overall offensive contributions were modest.

Going into the 2015 season, the Yankees needed a shortstop for the first time in many years, as Derek Jeter had just retired. In yet another three-team deal, Gregorius wound up in the Bronx as Shane Greene went to the Tigers and Robbie Ray and Domingo Leyba became Diamondbacks.

It was with the Yankees that Gregorius would have his best seasons. He found a bit more power, hitting 16 or more home runs in four straight seasons starting in 2016, while keeping his strikeout rate around half of league average. In the five-year stretch with the Yanks from 2015 to 2019, he launched 97 homers and hit .269/.313/.446. That offensive production was a hair above league average, as shown by his 101 wRC+ in that time. But his strong defense and 27 stolen bases helped him earn 10.8 wins above replacement over that stretch, per the calculations of FanGraphs.

Gregorius reached free agency prior to 2020, signing with the Phillies and having a solid campaign. He hit 10 home runs in that 60-game season while batting .284/.339/.488 overall. The Phils re-signed him to a two-year deal after that, but that’s when things went south for Gregorius. He hit .209/.270/.370 in 2021 and then just .210/.263/.304 in 2022. He lost his playing time in that latter season to Bryson Stott and was released in August. He remained unsigned throughout the remainder of last season and through the winter, but will now join the Algodoneros for 2023 and see if he can get back in a good groove.

White Sox To Select Billy Hamilton

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The White Sox are set to select the contract of veteran outfielder Billy Hamilton, reports Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times. He had an opt-out clause in his minor league deal, so he’ll be called up in order to prevent him from pursuing new opportunities in free agency. The Sox are also preparing to activate infielders Tim Anderson and Hanser Alberto from the 10-day injured list. A slate of corresponding moves will be forthcoming, though a 40-man roster move isn’t necessary for Hamilton. The Sox have an open spot after outrighting pitcher A.J. Alexy late last week.

Hamilton, 32, spent the 2021 season with the White Sox, hitting .220/.242/.378 in 135 trips to the plate. That small sample of work at the plate was spread over the life of 71 games, reflecting Hamilton’s usage as a frequent pinch-runner and late-game defensive replacement. That’s the role the former top prospect has settled into since departing Cincinnati, where he was the starting center fielder for a half decade but never managed to develop enough bat to match his elite speed and defensive aptitude. He’s begun the 2023 season with a .188/.328/.271 slash in 59 Triple-A plate appearances.

Over the past four years, Hamilton has logged close to a full season’s worth of plate appearances (547) but mustered only a tepid .206/.263/.289 batting line with a 28% strikeout rate. He’s still swiped 47 bags in that time despite the infrequency with which he reaches base. Defensive metrics have long touted his glove in center field; in 6766 career innings he’s been credited with 73 Defensive Runs Saved, a 57.2 Ultimate Zone Rating and 58 Outs Above Average.

As a team, the White Sox rank 26th in the Majors with -12 DRS and 21st with -4 OAA. Unlike last season, the outfield hasn’t been a major culprit, thanks to the presence of a healthy Luis Robert Jr., the newly signed Andrew Benintendi. Prospect Oscar Colas has been the primary option in right field and graded out less successfully, however, and his bat hasn’t produced anywhere close to the levels hoped yet (.211/.265/.276 in 84 plate appearances).

Van Schouwen adds that outfielder Adam Haseley is expected to remain with the club, so it’s possible the Sox either have an injury in the outfield or are planning to give Colas some additional development time in Triple-A after a rough start to his season. However it plays out, Hamilton will give them a top-tier defender and elite speed off the bench for as long as he’s with the team.

Yankees Activate Harrison Bader

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The Yankees announced Tuesday morning that they’ve reinstated center fielder Harrison Bader from the injured list. He’s missed the entire season thus far due to an oblique injury. Franchy Cordero was optioned back to Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre in a corresponding move.

Bader’s return gives the Yankees a plus defender who can slot into center field on an everyday basis and also deepen a lineup that has struggled for much of the year. While Bader hit just .217/.245/.283 in 14 regular-season games with the Yankees following his return from another IL stint last summer, he erupted with a .333/.429/.833 batting line and five homers in just 35 postseason plate appearances. He’s also a career .245/.317/.405 hitter overall during 1764 regular-season plate appearances (97 wRC+).

For much of the season, Bader’s looming return seemed like it’d be the catalyst for the Yankees to make some degree of changes in the outfield, but any such decision is now pushed back a week or so, with Aaron Judge on the injured list due to a hip strain. There’s hope that Judge can return early next week, however, at which point the Yankees will have to determine how they’ll allocate outfield playing time. Bader and Judge will presumably take regular reps in center and in right field, leaving the Yankees with a collection of Aaron Hicks, Oswaldo Cabrera, Jake Bauers, Willie Calhoun and perhaps the currently-optioned Cordero to split time between left field and at designated hitter.

Bauers was only just selected to the 40-man roster from Triple-A after a huge start to his season in Scranton, but the other four have struggled considerably at the big league level in the Bronx. Hicks, in particular, has floundered at the plate but is also signed through the 2025 season. Calhoun is out of minor league options and is hitting just .220/.250/.244 through 44 plate appearances himself.

Bader’s return also bears monitoring given his status as an impending free agent. The manner in which he produces and is able to remain healthy over the course of the ensuing five months will play a significant role both in his earning power and in the context of the upcoming free-agent market. The 30-year-old Bader is slated to join Cody Bellinger and Enrique Hernandez as the top center field options on the market this winter. Hernandez has been playing primarily on the infield this year thanks to injuries elsewhere on the Boston roster, however. Bellinger is out to a strong start with the Cubs but will need more than just one good month to erase the offensive swoon that defined his 2021-22 seasons. Bader’s own return from injury will help form that market.

The Opener: Harper, Cubs, MLBTR Chat

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As MLB’s regular season continues — and with one transaction already on the books this morning — here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world today:

1. Bryce is back:

Phillies superstar Bryce Harper was cleared to return to the team’s lineup yesterday, and will make his season debut tonight against the Dodgers. A transaction will be needed to make room for Harper on the active roster before tonight’s game, which is scheduled for 9:10pm CT tonight. Harper will look to help Philadelphia rebound from a brutal 13-4 loss last night as lefty Matt Strahm, whose impressive start to the season was recently discussed by MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald, takes on struggling ace Julio Urias. Harper’s return will surely provide a huge boost to a Phillies lineup that ranks just 15th in runs scored and 13th in on-base percentage.

2. Cubs keeping an eye on Gomes:

Cubs catcher Yan Gomes was hit in the head by a backswing during yesterday’s game against the Nationals and departed in the second inning. Manager David Ross told reporters (including The Athletic’s Patrick Mooney) last night that the club would evaluate Gomes today to determine if he is going to miss time. Mark Gonzales reports that catching prospect Miguel Amaya is headed to Washington D.C., meaning he’s the likely replacement in the event that Gomes does miss time. The 35-year-old Gomes has paired strong defense behind the plate with a .294/.310/.529 slash line at the plate in the early going, good for a 122 wRC+, so losing him would be a blow to the Cubs.

That said, the 24-year-old Amaya has long been one of Chicago’s top prospects. He was considered a top-100 prospect in all of baseball as recently as the 2021 season but has been derailed by Tommy John surgery and injuries to his foot and ankle in recent years. Now finally healthy, Amaya has been excellent at the plate in Double-A to open the 2023 campaign, slashing .273/.411/.659 in 56 plate appearances (182 wRC+). Should Amaya be recalled, he’ll be poised to make his major league debut quickly as he shares time with Tucker Barnhart.

3. MLBTR Chat Today:

With the calendar now flipped to May, some of the surprising early season storylines of the 2023 regular season have begun to even out, while other surprising trends are still going strong. If the beginning of this season has spurred any questions in your mind about your favorite team or the league as a whole, MLBTR’s Steve Adams is holding a live chat with readers at 1pm CT today. You can click here to ask a question in advance, join in live once the chat begins, or read the transcript once the chat is complete.

Dominic Leone Opts Out Of Rangers Deal

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Veteran right-handed reliever Dominic Leone has opted out of his minor league contract with the Rangers and will formally become a free agent later today, reports MLBTR’s Anthony Franco (Twitter link).

The 31-year-old Leone has gotten out to a terrific start in Triple-A this season, pitching to a 1.59 ERA with a 15-to-2 K/BB ratio in 11 1/3 innings of work. He’ll shop that strong start around the open market as he looks for a path back to a big league bullpen.

A veteran of nine big league seasons, Leone spent the 2021-22 seasons with the Giants, pitching to a combined 2.71 ERA with a roughly average 23.1% strikeout rate and higher-than-average 10.4% walk rate in 103 innings of relief. His fastball sat at 95.5 mph during that two-year stretch, and he turned in huge marks in terms of swinging-strike rate (15.7%) and opponents’ chase rate (38.4%).

Leone debuted with Seattle in 2014 and has since spent time in Arizona, Toronto, St. Louis and Cleveland in addition to his two years in San Francisco. Overall, he’s logged 356 innings at the Major League level, all coming in relief or as an opener, with a composite 3.69 ERA, 24.4% strikeout rate, 9.8% walk rate, 1.06 HR/9 and 43.8% ground-ball rate. That ERA is backed up by matching 3.91 marks from both FIP and SIERA. Leone has 53 career holds and seven saves, including 26 holds and five saves over the past two seasons with the Giants, so he’s accustomed to working in high-leverage spots.

The Rangers rank tenth in the Majors with a 3.46 ERA out of the bullpen, though the final few spots in the Texas relief corps are hardly set in stone. Veteran Ian Kennedy and lefty Cole Ragans have both struggled so far in 2023 (although Kennedy is still missing plenty of bats), while newcomer Yerry Rodriguez has just one inning under his belt so far. The Rangers have gotten solid bottom-line results from Jose Leclerc, Jonathan Hernandez, Will Smith, Josh Sborz, Brock Burke and long man Dane Dunning thus far, though Leclerc’s 18.4% walk rate is a cause for concern.

Texas apparently remains bullish enough on that group that they’ll allow the veteran Leone to return to the market and quite likely latch on with another club. There are numerous teams around the league seeking ’pen help, and with a nice start to his season in the minors and a solid track record at the MLB level, Leone ought to find another opportunity in short order.

Which Players Could White Sox Make Available Closer To The Trade Deadline?

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I wrote about the calamitous White Sox start on Friday, and over the weekend the team went 1-2, snapping a nine-game losing streak with a stunning seven-run bottom half of the ninth inning, walking off the Rays in the process. Even if that win sparks some momentum for a listless South Side club, the Sox are already nine back in the AL Central. They’d need to play at an 82-51 pace (.617) to get to 90 wins. It’s not even clear that’d be enough for a division win, with the Twins playing at a 95-win pace.

Early May is pretty early to be doing any forward-looking breakdown of what a team might have to offer at this year’s trade deadline, but the current state of the White Sox is a bit more dire than usual. Their playoff odds at FanGraphs have plummeted from 30.5% prior to the season to just 4.2% now. PECOTA has their playoff odds at just 3.2%. They have MLB’s second-worst run differential (-65) and are already battling myriad injuries with some glaring depth issues.

One of the most frequently asked questions over the past week in the chats we host at MLBTR has been one of who could be available if the Sox sell this summer. With that in mind and with an obligatory “it’s still only May 1” caveat, here’s a quick rundown of the possibilities and how they’ve begun the season.

Rental Players

The most obvious candidates to change hands if the Sox do indeed end up selling, all of these players are set to be free agents at season’s end anyhow. There are a couple of qualifying offer candidates within the group, so the Sox would need to feel they’re getting more than the value of a compensatory draft pick back in those instances.

Lucas Giolito, RHP, 28, $10.4MM salary

Giolito won’t turn 29 until mid-July and stands as one of the potential top arms on next offseason’s free-agent market … if he can round back into form this season and put an ugly 2022 campaign behind him. From 2019-21, the former first-round pick was one of the American League’s top arms, making the All-Star team in ’19 and securing Cy Young votes in all three of those seasons — including sixth- and seventh-place finishes in 2019 and 2020, respectively. During that stretch, Giolito logged a collective 3.47 ERA with a huge 30.7% strikeout rate and solid 8% walk rate.

The 2022 season was another story. Giolito’s fastball dropped from the 94.2 mph it averaged during that three-year peak down to 92.7 mph. His strikeout rate fell to an above-average but still-diminished 25.4%. His walk rate crept up a bit, to 8.7%. His opponents’ average exit velocity jumped from 87.8 mph to 88.8 mph, and his hard-hit rate rose from 34.5% to 39%. None of those are awful numbers, but everything went the wrong direction for Giolito in ’22. A huge .340 BABIP surely contributed to some of his struggles — being a fly-ball pitcher with the worst outfield defense in baseball isn’t fun — but it wasn’t a great season regardless.

Giolito’s picked some velocity back up early this season. His 23.1% strikeout rate isn’t near its peak, but his 4.1% walk rate is far and away a career-best mark. If the White Sox sell, Giolito will likely be one of the best and most in-demand starters on the market. He’s out to a decent start, and with his track record, age and upside, a qualifying offer seems likely, barring a disastrous collapse. The Sox would need to feel they got more value than they’d net in the form of a compensatory draft pick.

Reynaldo Lopez, RHP, 29, $3.625MM

Lopez has had a terrible start to the season, with an 8.76 ERA and five home runs allowed in just 12 1/3 innings (3.65 HR/9). He was very good in the ’pen in 2021-22, however, notching a 3.07 ERA with an above-average 24.8% strikeout rate and a 5.3% walk rate. In 2023, Lopez is sporting a career-best 33.3% strikeout rate, and he’s averaging a career-high 99.2 mph on his heater. His 14.6% swinging-strike rate is excellent. If Lopez who allowed just one home run in 55 2/3 innings last year, can get past this bizarre home run spike, he still has obvious late-inning potential and is the type of affordable power arm who’d appeal to other clubs.

Mike Clevinger, RHP, 32, $12MM

Clevinger technically has a 2024 option on his contract, but mutual options are almost exclusively accounting measures and are exercised by both parties with only the utmost rarity. He’s still just 32 years old, by Clevinger’s halcyon days feel like they were a lot longer ago than 2017-20. He missed the 2021 season following Tommy John surgery, came back with a diminished fastball and middling peripherals in ’22, and hasn’t looked much better in 2023, with a 4.60 ERA, below-average 19.3% strikeout rate and ugly 11.1% walk rate in 29 1/3 innings. Clevinger has gained some but not all of the life on his heater back, and his current 8.1% swinging-strike rate is both well below the league average (11.1%) and easily the lowest mark of his career. He’s pitching like a fifth starter right now, and not a particularly cheap one.

Elvis Andrus, 2B/SS, 35, $3MM

Andrus was great with the White Sox in place of an injured Tim Anderson down the stretch in 2022 (.271/.309/.464, nine homers, 11 steals) and has been the opposite so far in 2023, hitting .206/.274/.245 in 113 plate appearances with well below-average quality of contact, per Statcast. He can still play defense and has now shown a willingness to log some time at second base, so another club could look at him as a slick-fielding utility option. He’ll need to hit more than he has in the season’s first month, though.

Hanser Alberto, INF, 30, $2.3MM

Alberto has typically been a solid defender at three infield spots with good bat-to-ball skills, a bottom-of-the-barrel walk rate and minimal power. This season, however, he’s made some glaring misplays at third base and batted just .211/.211/.368 in 19 plate appearances before hitting the IL with a quad strain. It’s a tiny sample, but he needs to get healthy and play better to even make it to the trade deadline on the big league roster.

Yasmani Grandal, C, 34, $18.25MM

The switch-hitting Grandal has bounced back at the plate with a .241/.323/.446 batting line (114 wRC+) and three homers in 93 plate appearances. His 8.6% walk rate is well down from its career 14.5% level, and his once-vaunted defensive ratings have fallen below average at 34. Given his considerable salary, Grandal is only changing hands if the ChiSox eat a good portion of the bill.

Signed/Controlled for One Extra Year

Moving anyone from this group would signal a more aggressive seller’s standpoint from the front office, but the Sox would generally be able to retain their core players while also unlocking larger returns than they’d be land for their generally modest collection of rentals.

Tim Anderson, SS, 30 | $12.5MM in 2023, $14MM club option for 2024

Anderson batted above .300 in four straight seasons from 2019-22, turning in an overall .318/.347/.473 slash that was 23% better than league average, by measure of wRC+. The two-time All-Star is a regular threat for 15 to 20 home runs and 15 to 25 steals. Defensive metrics are mixed on his work at shortstop, but his only across-the-board below average season per DRS, UZR and OAA came in 2022, when he was hobbled by a groin strain. Anderson is a well above-average regular with All-Star potential and a highly affordable salary through the 2024 season.

The White Sox’ top prospect is 2021 first-rounder Colson Montgomery, who has become one of the game’s top-ranked shortstop prospects. He opened the season on the shelf with an oblique strain but could be ready for a big league look in 2024 after reaching Double-A as a 20-year-old in 2022.

Lance Lynn, RHP, 36 | $18.5MM in 2023, $18MM club option for 2024

Lynn, 36 next week, hasn’t been himself so far in 2023. His 10.1% walk rate is his highest since 2018 by a wide margin, and he’s allowed a jarring 2.20 homers per nine frames. The 94.4 mph he averaged on his heater in 2019-21 is down to 92.6 mph in 2023, and while he’s still missing bats in the zone and off the plate, Lynn has allowed too much hard contact when opponents do connect. Hitters posted just a .192/.238/.335 slash against Lynn’s four-seamer as recently as 2022, but they’re hitting .283/.365/.587 when putting the pitch in play this year. The 2019-22 version of Lynn is well worth that 2024 option price, but he needs to solve his home run woes.

Liam Hendriks, RHP, 34 | $14MM in 2023, $15MM club option for 2024

Hendriks hasn’t pitched this season but recently announced that he’s cancer-free after battling non-Hodgkins lymphoma for the past several months. Hendriks is one of the game’s best relievers, and the priority is simply getting back on the field. If he looks like himself, he’d garner interest.

Joe Kelly, RHP, 35 | $9MM in 2023, $9.5MM club option for 2024

Kelly has been on the IL three times since signing a two-year, $17MM deal with the White Sox prior to the 2022 season. He also has a 6.26 ERA and a 12.6% walk rate with the South Siders. He’s still missing bats, racking up grounders and has had improved command in his tiny 4 2/3  inning sample this season. The Sox might have to eat some money to move him even if he’s pitching decently.

Kendall Graveman, RHP, 32 | $8MM in 2023, $8MM in 2024

Graveman is still throwing hard and missing bats at a solid clip, but his sinker isn’t getting grounders anywhere near its prior levels. He’s sitting on a 38.7% ground-ball rate in ’23 after living at 54% in 2021-22 and 52.1% in his career prior to the current season. On a surely related note, he’s giving up homers at a career-worst rate (2.38 HR/9). Graveman’s first season in Chicago was solid, but he’s at risk of becoming another high-priced bullpen misstep.

Jake Diekman, LHP, 36 | $3.5MM in 2023, $4MM club option for 2024

The White Sox acquired Diekman from the Red Sox at last year’s trade deadline even though he’d walked 17.5% of his opponents in Boston, and the command has only gotten worse. Diekman has walked a whopping 13 of his 58 opponents (22.4%) in 2023 while posting a 7.94 ERA. Command has always been a weak point, but this current rate just isn’t tenable. If he can’t right the ship, it’s hard to imagine him lasting on the roster until the trade deadline.

Longer Term Players

Moving anyone from this bunch is tougher to envision, as it would effectively signal a larger-scale rebuilding effort. While the Sox could still move one or even multiple players from this group without necessarily embarking on a full-scale rebuild, these moves would represent a clear step back from contending not only in 2023 but likely in 2024 at the very least — quite possibly longer.

Dylan Cease, RHP, 27 | $5.3MM in 2023, arb-eligible in 2024-25

Trading Cease would amount to waving a white flag not only on this season but on the entire rebuild that the Sox went through from 2016-20. Cease finished runner-up to Justin Verlander in American League Cy Young voting last year and was so dominant — 2.20 ERA, 30.4% strikeout rate, 6.4 bWAR in 184 innings — that he might’ve won in another year where he wasn’t chasing a historic comeback effort from a future Hall of Famer.

Cease’s velocity, strikeout rate and swinging-strike rate are all down a bit this season, but not in glaring, concerning fashion. He’s sporting a 4.15 ERA, though practically all the damage against him came at the hands of the Rays last week when the hottest team in baseball tagged him for seven runs. Cease won’t turn 28 until December. He’s a power-armed, bat-missing monster with two years of arbitration remaining after the current season. Pitchers like this almost never get traded, and it’s extra-tough to see the White Sox biting the bullet and making a move, since doing so just feels like a giant concession. If they do reach that point, Cease could generate one of the biggest hauls in recent trade deadline memory.

Michael Kopech, RHP, 27 | $2.05MM in 2023, arb-eligible in 2024-25

It’s been a poor start for Kopech (7.01 ERA in 25 2/3 innings) thanks to wobbly command that has manifested in a career-high 11.1% walk rate and, more problematically, a career-worst 2.81 HR/9 mark. Still, he’s a 27-year-old who once ranked as the sport’s top pitching prospect and as recently as 2021-22 logged a combined 3.53 ERA, 26.7% strikeout rate and 10.4% walk rate in 188 2/3 innings.

Kopech spent nearly all of the 2021 season in the bullpen as he worked back from Tommy John surgery and fanned a gaudy 36.1% of his opponents in that role. He’s a high-upside arm and has already seen his average fastball creep up from 95.1 mph in 2022 to 96.2 mph in 2023. Teams would love to get their hands on Kopech right now, and if he can cut back on the walks and homers, his value will only increase. This trade wouldn’t necessarily be the white flag that the Cease trade would be, but it’s hard to see Kopech going unless the Sox are pessimistic about their chances in the next couple of seasons as well.

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There are other names to consider, though each comes with plenty of red flags. Yoan Moncada is signed through 2024 and controllable through a 2025 club option, but he’s been neither healthy enough nor consistently productive enough to make the remaining $43.1MM in guarantees on his deal feel palatable for a trade partner. Luis Robert Jr., Eloy Jimenez, Andrew Vaughn and Aaron Bummer are all signed or controlled through at least 2026 (2027 in Robert’s case), which lessens any urgency to move those players. As it stands, the Sox would be selling low on anyone from that group of talented players. No one from that group feels likely to be a serious trade candidate this summer.

Of the three buckets listed above — “rental,” “one extra year” and “longer-term” — the rental pieces are the likeliest to go. Selling anything beyond that point, particularly a face of the franchise like Anderson or a controllable Cy Young-caliber talent like Cease, would likely signal a step back and longer-term rebuilding effort just two years after the Sox sought to emerge from their prior rebuild. Owner Jerry Reinsdorf is as loyal as they come, but one can imagine that the current meltdown could test even his patience; GM Rick Hahn candidly acknowledged last week in public comments that his job is likely on the line.

The White Sox still have a couple months to try to turn things around, but if things don’t improve in a hurry, then many of the names listed above will the most frequently discussed players on the 2023 summer rumor mill as contending teams look to beef up their rosters in advance of a postseason push.

Mariners To Outright Diego Castillo, Promote Bryce Miller

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The Mariners are shuffling up their pitching staff. They’re set to select the contract of top pitching prospect Bryce Miller, as first reported by Joe Doyle of Future Star Series, and they’ve also passed right-hander Diego Castillo through waivers and assigned him outright to Triple-A Tacoma, per Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times (Twitter link).

With that outright, Castillo is no longer on the 40-man roster. He has the three years of service time needed to reject the assignment in favor of free agency, but he doesn’t yet have five years of service, so rejecting the assignment would mean forfeiting the remainder of this year’s $2.95MM salary. As such, he’s sure to accept an assignment to Tacoma and remain with the organization.

It’s been a swift decline for Castillo, who was one of the top relievers moved at the 2021 deadline, going from Tampa Bay to Seattle in exchange for minor league infielder Austin Shenton and righty JT Chargois. Castillo was quite effective in his first season and a half with the Mariners, pitching to a 3.42 ERA with an above-average 25.5% strikeout rate against a slightly below-average 9.4% walk rate. He held opponents to just a .196 average, yielded only 1.06 HR/9 and kept the ball on the ground at a 48.5% clip.

The 2023 season, however, has been a disaster for the 29-year-old Castillo. In 8 2/3 innings so far, he’s walked as many batters as he’s fanned (seven) and also plunked a hitter. He’s already served up homers to two of the 41 batters he’s faced after surrendering only five in 54 1/3 innings (222 batters faced) a year ago. The 94.2 mph average on his fastball, meanwhile, is down 1.6 mph from last year’s mark of 95.8. Overall, he’s sitting on a 6.23 ERA and has allowed 15 of 41 opponents (.366) to reach base.

Any other team could’ve claimed Castillo, but it’s generally rare for other clubs to claim struggling players of this nature when they have a guaranteed contract of some note. The Mariners could’ve waited to make this move but likely saw Castillo’s struggles as a way to open a 40-man roster spot to accommodate their top pitching prospect. If another club had claimed Castillo, the Mariners would’ve been spared the remaining $2.44MM of this year’s salary, but they’ll instead hope he can round back into form with the Rainiers.

Turning to Miller, he’ll make his big league debut when he takes the mound tomorrow against the A’s. He last pitched on April 25, so he’ll be plenty rested. The 24-year-old has had a rough start to his 2023 season in Double-A, pitching to a 6.41 ERA in 19 2/3 frames, but he entered the year among the top 100 prospects at Baseball America, FanGraphs and MLB.com. He currently ranks 92nd, 89th and 85th, respectively on those three lists.

The handful of shaky outings to begin the year, it seems, won’t dissuade the Mariners from hoping he can follow Logan Gilbert and George Kirby to be the next member of the team’s vaunted farm system to step into the Major League rotation. Seattle has already lost Robbie Ray for the season and has seen Chris Flexen struggle in the fifth spot of the rotation, so it stands to reason that Miller could potentially seize a permanent job, if not tomorrow then certainly at some point this season.

Despite his rocky start to the 2023 season, Miller is seen as a potential mid-rotation starter, thanks in no small part to a heater that sits upper-90s and can bump 100 mph. He pairs that with a slider and changeup, and the former college reliever has improved his command as the Mariners have stretched him back out as a starter.

Miller split the bulk of the 2022 season between High-A and Double-A, logging a combined 3.16 ERA with a 30% strikeout rate and an 8.5% walk rate in 133 2/3 innings. He allowed just 0.67 HR/9 and kept the ball on the ground at a slightly above-average rate. And, given that sizable workload in ’22, there’s little reason to think the Mariners will feel the need to monitor his innings total too aggressively this season.

If Miller were to stick in the big leagues, he’d be on pace to qualify for arbitration as a Super Two player following the 2025 season and reach free agency at the conclusion of the 2029 season. Of course, future optional assignments could alter one or both of those timetables considerably.

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