Archives for May 2023

Left-hander Matt Strahm missed part of 2020 and most of 2021 due to knee injuries but bounced back with a solid season for the Red Sox in 2022. He made 50 appearances out of their bullpen, tossing 44 2/3 innings with a 3.83 ERA. His 36.8% ground ball rate was below average but he struck out a strong 26.9% of batters faced while posting an 8.8% walk rate that was very close to league average.

He reached free agency at the end of the year and was in a mix of left-handed relievers that also included such names as Taylor Rogers, Andrew Chafin, Matt Moore, Aroldis Chapman, Brad Hand and Zack Britton. Strahm was the first of that group to sign, with he and the Phillies reaching a deal in early December for two years and a $15MM guarantee. A few weeks later, Rogers signed with the Giants for three years and $33MM, naturally topping Strahm given his longer track record as an effective reliever. He came into this year with 385 relief appearances compared to Strahm’s 182.

The rest of the group would linger on the market for a while as the season approached. Like Rogers, they each generally had longer résumés than Strahm in terms of working as effective relievers. Strahm oscillated between starting and relieving in his first few seasons and then dealt with injuries a bit in 2020 and more so in 2021. That meant he really only had one full season of healthy and effective work as a reliever. But then someone like Chafin, as an example, had essentially a decade-long track record of success in the job. He finished 2022 with a career ERA of 3.23 over 476 appearances dating back to 2014. Hand was fairly similar, having been a solid bullpen option since converting to relief full-time in 2016. Chapman had a rough 2022 but had previously been one of the most dominant relievers in the sport for quite a long time. Same for Britton prior to his recent injury woes. Moore had only recently joined the bullpen but had previously been a top prospect and had some success as a starter in the past.

Chapman went on to sign with the Royals at the end of January for one year and $3.75MM plus incentives. Chafin agreed with the Diamondbacks in mid-February for one year and $6.25MM with incentives and a club option for 2024. Moore agreed with the Angels shortly after that for one year and $7.55MM. Hand stayed unsigned until early March when Spring Training was well underway, agreeing with the Rockies for one year and $2MM plus incentives. Britton remains unsigned to this day.

Although it was a bit surprising to see Strahm top everyone in that group, his 2023 perhaps illustrates why that might have been the case. Though he was producing quality work as a reliever with the Red Sox last year, he consistently spoke about wanting to regain a job as a starter in the future. Strahm had made 25 starts earlier in his career with the Padres but never quite stuck, both due to injuries and some inconsistent performances. The Phillies didn’t seem to be planning on giving him that job initially, but he has it now.

The Phils went into Spring Training with a planned rotation of Aaron Nola, Zack Wheeler, Taijuan Walker and Ranger Suárez in the front four. The fifth spot was left open to be a competition, with the hope being that top prospect Andrew Painter could seize the job in camp even though he wouldn’t turn 20 years old until early April. If that didn’t come to fruition, the club had fallback options such as Bailey Falter and Cristopher Sánchez.

Unfortunately, Painter would be shut down in early March with a sprain of the UCL in his elbow. His shutdown period is over but he’s still ramping up arm strength and has yet to appear in an official game this year. In addition to that, Suárez dealt with some forearm inflammation in spring and still hasn’t made his season debut, just starting a rehab assignment last week. Sánchez was also shut down in the spring, with triceps soreness being the culprit in his case. That left two openings in the rotation next to Nola, Wheeler and Walker.

One of those openings was filled by Strahm and he has responded admirably so far. He made one relief appearance at the start of the year but has since made five starts. In 23 1/3 combined innings on the year, he has a 2.31 ERA. His 38.8% ground ball is still below average, but he’s striking out an incredible 36% of batters faced while walking just 7.9%. His .213 batting average on balls in play and 81.4% strand rate have surely helped him out a bit, but he still has a really strong 2.78 FIP and 2.94 SIERA that point to quality results even with some regression in terms of luck. Starters generally need to have a more diverse pitch arsenal than relievers and Strahm is showing that here this year. All four of the pitches he’s throwing have negative run values this season, with Statcast giving him a -1 on his cutter and sinker, a -3 on his four-seam and a -4 on his slider.

This is all a very small sample and we can’t draw too many long-term conclusions from it, but this illustrates why Strahm’s market wasn’t exactly the same as the other lefties mentioned earlier. Though the Phils went into the spring with the intention of having Strahm work out of the bullpen, they must have at least had some idea that moving back to the rotation was something they could try if the need arose. Those other free agent southpaws have all been exclusively relievers for years, except for Moore, who hadn’t really been effective out of the rotation since 2016.

Whether Strahm can keep this up remains to be seen. But if he can, it could potentially have interesting ramifications for the Phillies. Now that Suárez is on the road back to health, he should be looking to retake a rotation spot in the next few weeks. Falter still has an option year remaining and a 5.01 ERA through six starts this year. Perhaps he winds up back in the minors and Strahm keeps his spot even after Suárez is healthy. Sánchez recently came off the IL but was optioned to the minors.

There’s also the future to consider, as Strahm has a second year on his contract. The Phillies are currently slated to see Nola reach free agency this winter, as extension talks haven’t led to a deal. That leaves their on-paper rotation for 2024 as Wheeler, Walker and Suarez. Painter could theoretically take a spot if he can return to health and get back on track, but he’s still a wild card given his youth and lack of experience. Falter could be in the mix as well but Strahm could give the club an extra layer of rotation security if he continues proving himself this year.

There could also be significant fallout for Strahm personally, as he’s slated to return to the open market after 2024. His market will be somewhat limited as he’s already 31 years old and will be marketing his age-33 season at that time, but effective starters can still get paid at that age or older. There’s obviously aces like Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander who are getting paid extremely well into their late 30s and early 40s, but solid mid-rotation guy Chris Bassitt just got three years and $63MM going into his age-34 season.