The Cubs entered the month of July widely expected to be sellers this trade season, but the club has turned their season around since the All Star break. Chicago is currently riding an eight-game win streak and have won ten of their last eleven games. The recent hot streak has propelled them to a 53-51 record, 3.5 games out of the NL Central and just three games back of the final NL Wild Card spot. Per Fangraphs, the club’s playoff odds have shot from just 6% on July 17 all the way up to 31.7% today.
Given this rapid turn of the club’s fortunes, the club has decided not to move outfielder Cody Bellinger ahead of Tuesday’s deadline, according to Jesse Rogers of ESPN. The Cubs’ decision takes the best available rental bat off the market, furthering limiting options for clubs looking to upgrade their offense amid a thin market for position players. Per Rogers, the Cubs figure to shift their focus to buying in the coming days, with bullpen help as a particular area of focus for the club.
Bellinger has been everything the Cubs could have reasonably hoped for in signing him to a one-year deal this past offseason. The 27-year-old former MVP has bounced back in a huge way from his injury-marred seasons of the past two years, posting a fantastic .315/.368/.540 slash line in 310 plate appearances for Chicago this season while playing quality defense both in center field and at first base. He’s striking out just 16.1% of the time, a career-best mark, and his ISO of .225, while still a far cry from the .274 figure of his first four seasons, is nonetheless a major improvement over the .162 figure he posted during his last two seasons in LA.
While Bellinger’s performance hasn’t been entirely supported by more advanced metrics this season, as evidenced by his .381 wOBA greatly outstripping his .328 xwOBA, even his underlying performance has been that of a clearly above-average regular. In retaining their star outfielder, the club will have the option to extend him a Qualifying Offer following the 2023 campaign, an option they appear all but certain to take, barring a major injury change the trajectory of Bellinger’s free agency. Should the Cubs extend him a QO, they’ll receive draft pick compensation in the event that he signs elsewhere this offseason, as they did with catcher Willson Contreras this past offseason.
MLBTR’s Anthony Franco examined the best possible matches in a Bellinger trade earlier this month, highlighting the Astros, Giants, and Yankees as the best fits in the process. Those clubs and others who planned to pursue Bellinger’s services will now have to look elsewhere to upgrade their outfield. Tommy Pham and Mark Canha of the Mets, Lane Thomas of the Nationals, and Dylan Carlson of the Cardinals are among the top options available. That being said, only Pham is a rental option among that group, with the rest presumably coming at a higher acquisition cost thanks to their additional years of control.
With Bellinger now off the market, it remains to be seen whether the Cubs will adopt a similar course of action regarding right-hander Marcus Stroman. The situation regarding the veteran right-hander has gotten plenty of attention in recent weeks given Stroman’s public desire for a long-term extension in Chicago and the Cubs’ disinclination to discuss such an arrangement.
While it’s possible the Cubs’ stance on extending Stroman has changed following the club’s recent hot stretch, it’s also possible that Stroman’s recent performance could present a new obstacle in any negotiations. While the righty sports a solid 3.51 ERA and 3.60 FIP across 22 starts this season, Stroman’s past six starts have seen those figures balloon up from 2.28 and 3.36, respectively, due to the 32-year-old hurler allowing a whopping 28 runs (24 earned) in 27 innings of work since his start on June 25 in London.
That the Cubs are turning their attention to the bullpen is hardly a surprise. The club has gotten excellent production out of Stroman, Justin Steele, and Kyle Hendricks at the front of their rotation, while Drew Smyly has proven to be a serviceable back-end starter over the past two seasons. Jameson Taillon has struggled mightily this season, with a 5.46 ERA in 18 starts, but he’s in just the first year of a four-year, $68MM contract and has pitched to a 1.78 ERA over his past five starts, making it unlikely the club would spend prospect capital to remove the veteran hurler from their rotation.
That leaves the bullpen as a much clearer place to upgrade, as the Cubs sport a middle-of-the-pack 4.05 bullpen ERA entering play today. Right-handers Adbert Alzolay, Julian Merryweather, and Mark Leiter Jr. have all put up solid seasons, with Alzolay in particular impressing as the club’s closer. Still, it’s easy to see how the club could benefit from a steady veteran option such as Paul Sewald of the Mariners or Scott Barlow of the Royals. Those two arms in particular come with an additional year of team control, which could be particularly valuable to a team at the beginning of a new competitive window like Chicago.
While Rogers doesn’t indicate the Cubs are expected to add at the position, first base has been something of a disaster for the Cubs this season. Bellinger’s positional flexibility and a surprisingly solid season from fourth outfielder Mike Tauchman have helped to patch up the issue, but significant struggles from youngster Matt Mervis and veteran Trey Mancini have left the club with a 97 wRC+ at the position even after factoring in Bellinger’s contributions. C.J. Cron of the Rockies, Jeimer Candelario of the Nationals and Adam Duvall of the Red Sox are trade candidates who the Cubs could turn to at the position should they pursue an upgrade.
This isn’t a team that will compete in the playoffs, even if they sneak in. Mistake. Sell high on your asset and look towards 2024.
A mistake on the Cubs’ part, but an understandable one considering their recent hot streak.
This is like when the Giants and Zaidi were forced to keep Bumgarner because they were caught in a mirage at the trade deadline, thinking that they were actually contenders.
I agree, and find some of the comments below laughable, but I don’t think we are the only ones who look at baseball savant. I doubt the Cubs could get anything meaningful for him anyway.
Cubs aren’t going nowhere anyway I know they are hot now but they will fade away. I think Milwaukee and Cincinnati are both better. It would behoove the Cubs to build towards next year and beyond.
But yet every metric has shown the cubs to be the best team in the central and also the reds have a much more difficult schedule in the 2nd of the season.
Every metric…except wins and losses.
I could be wrong, but I thought fangraphs playoff probabilities took strength of schedule into account. So even when you factor that in, you’re still talking about ~1/3 chance of making the playoffs. That’s not real great.
It’s not great, but it’s still plenty high enough to go for it over getting a couple extra middling prospects.
But who is to say whether they would get League ready players or more lottery tickets? At some point we have to stop playing for the future and start playing for NOW. One bird in hand is better than two in the bush.
Ok, is a team that just got over 500 really a “NOW” team? I’d agree that it makes sense to play for now when your team is good, I disagree that this team is good.
Yes, with the expanded playoffs, the Cubs are a “now” team. It doesn’t mean they have to trade any top prospects, but they should go for it.
Gonna disagree. Odds have them with ~1/3 chance of even making the playoffs, I don’t think a 33% chance at just making it outweighs what they could potentially get from selling.
You’re welcome to your opinion though.
A 33% chance is pretty good considering the current standings. It helps that they’re the only team in the division with a positive run differential.
No, a current 1 in 3 chance to make the playoffs very likely outweighs what they could potentially get from selling.
Bellinger could be what puts another team over the top, but not the Cubs?!
Correct. There are other MLB teams with more talented rosters and better odds of even making the playoffs, where Bellinger would have a greater impact.
This shouldn’t be that hard to understand.
It’s one of those don’t sell, but don’t buy type situations. See how it plays out. Reward your team for playing well, but be realistic.
Given the dearth of bats available this winter, he’s probably parlayed himself into something around 5/100 this winter, right?
i think itll be 100ish but the years could vary a bit
He’s a competent CF, too. I think he gets 100m, even with the QO.
Nobody’s beating atlanta in the playoffs. They’re too damn good. I would have sold high on him and tried to resign him this off season if I was the cubs
The best regular season team rarely brings home the crown
I’ve been hounding my buddies to calm down about the Braves with this exact argument…any team can get hot, getting in the playoffs should always be a priority
Exactly. I like the Braves’ chances a lot. But even younger Braves have read the history books about how all but one of those playoff experiences went in the 1990s.
Toronto swept Atlanta. any team can get hot.
And nobody saw Atlanta coming back from like 10 games back to win the WS …watch those Cubs
And what no one is saying is that they have NOT said Stroman is off the market.
Now sign him to a 5/6 year deal. Solves our 1B issues and CF until PCA comes up.
The Cardinals have them right where they want them thinking the Scrubs can steal a title. Then the Cards wake up as their season careens into the Mississippi River. The Brewers will win by default.
No we won’t. We have a 37 year old first basemen hitting cleanup. Not good
The extra WC spot seems to be great for baseball but I think we can all agree it’s made the deadline way less interesting. Monday into Tuesday could still make up for it though if teams just want to wait until the last possible second to see where they stand
I think it’s making teams wait longer but there will be a lot of deals the next couple days. We will see
The Cardinals and Tigers are clear-cut sellers and I think White Sox have at least another move to make. Trades will transpire but I just hope it’s more than the obvious names that we know are on the move. I want to see some surprises.
I think the White Sox have more than 1 move left. I can see Grandal, Anderson, Middleton, Clevinger, Kopech, all being moved. Plus some.
I think we’ll see a shocker or two from the Padres. It’s seems they can never help themselves when it comes to big moves.
If they sweep the Rangers (and probably even if they don’t), I think they’re probably buying. If they waste one of Soto’s years, it’s gonna be a bad look
The subtext here is that everyone knows his underlying metrics make his performance look like smoke & mirrors so the Cubs aren’t getting a return big enough to make it worth trading him
As a Cubs fan, I approve of this decision. I’m sure they’ll take some heat for it, however, since it’s unlikely they will re-sign him in the offseason. That said, they have as good a chance as anybody – maybe even a slightly better chance, although we know it’s always about the money. The message a trade like that would send to the team might likely harm their chances going forward. But they are what they are – a .500 team (or a bit better), and extremely unlikely to win the pennant. But at least it will be entertaining for the fans. And that’s what I want from the rest of 2023. Worry about next year, next year.
The division is winnable. And once you get in anything can happen. When you got a chance you gotta go for it.
Dumb. They’re not serious contenders. They could probably get at least one good prospect in return.
And lose the fan base by trading him
Huh? Are you one of the bandwagon fans that started paying attention around 2015? Cubs fans have been through a lot, trading Bellinger isn’t going to make them jump ship.
Was he really even on or was it media speculation?
Prior to the Cubs winning their last 8 in a row, it seemed like a forgone conclusion to just about everyone.
Cardinals are thrilled by this decision. The return for Bellinger was likely to be a very good one.
You bet. Couldn’t be happier.
Farm system is stocked already
Sure, A couple of prospects that may or may not ever make it to MLB vs Bellinger destroying the Cardinals for years to come.
Bellinger is a free agent after 2023?
Cubs fans are enjoying them playing well at the expense of the Cardinals’ miserable season. Mo is out of his element and looks like he’s going to make things worse. New leadership is needed there.
It would be a trade deadline like no other if Canha and Pham are left as the “top OF deadline options.”
Know if a Cardinals OF,even Soto comes available or others then more interesting pertaining to Bats and could say not Trading him but at last minute get a good offer comes in. A lot between tonight when theirs just one game and Tuesday. We just need a GM Trade Meeting like Winter Meetings and no games all day and be like Wavier Tradedeadline was at midnight.
I don’t believe reports like this until Aug. 2nd.
How many times have we been told “nothing to see here” publicly by teams only to end up shocked days later?
Sweet! This dude is money great news!
The weed must be better in Chicago
Every team that’s not in it is supposed to dump all their players into the bone yard so the teams that are in it can scrum for the bits they want and offer scraps in return? Well, that’s good for baseball. Yeesh.
Trading rental players is not “dumping scraps in the boneyard”. It is a wise move to gain controllable assets to build around. That said Cubs winning streak has shown maybe its worth it just to hold give it a shot and collect picks after qualifying offers r declined.
They re decision was a toss up, either way had its merits.
Cowards?
My my, aren’t you the clever one. Name calling everyone in sight. A true keyboard tough guy.
Dansby Swanson says otherwise.
And they are looking smarter by the day trading bryant baez chafin robertson efross not signing contreras
As do Jon Lester, Kyle Hendricks, Yu Darvish, Jason Heyward, Ian Happ…
If he’s the Cody Bellinger of a few years ago…and that seems to be the case, the smart move is keeping him and extending him. They must feel they have an inside track on the extension potential.
He’s young enough to have a lot of good baseball in him for the better part of the next decade…especially knowing he slots well into 1B full time down the road.
How do you get to, “that seems to be the case”?
His results have been good, but as mentioned, the underlying stats don’t show that he’s actually back to that form.
He’s not ALL the way back to the MVP form but he’s getting closer. And most of all he’s a winner and a guy you really want to be around your team when you a have a ton of young prospects coming along.
A) I used the word “seems” for a reason
B) He’s a versatile, still relatively young, LH bat with power and gold glove caliber at more than one position. That’s a guy I’d keep. Doesn’t mean I’m right or wrong – just stating my opinion…which is what these spaces are for, yes?
Results are what matters.
No reason they shouldn’t. He’s under 30 and a perfect fit there.
Whoever signs Bellinger to an expensive long-term contract is probably going to regret it based on his underlying metrics. Trying to compete with him in 2023 and taking the compensation draft pick is a much better course of action for the Cubs than extending him.
But selling high on him in a weak hitters’ trade market would probably be the best choice of all.
Run differential might tell the tale.
They lost a lot of one run games early in the season, but have made up most of those losses with some one run wins lately. Good teams also win a lot of blowouts and the Cubs have done that.
Now who is the fall back plan for him?
No surprise. Never really saw them as sellers. Despite their position in the standings, for weeks the Cubs were the only team in the NLC with a positive run differential. Probabilities were bound to catch up with them at some point.
The Cubs should’ve been in this position the whole season. They underperformed for long stretches of the season, which is why they needed the current hot streak to bring them back into the playoff hunt. If they can stay healthy and focused, they very realistically can compete for the division title. The Reds and Brewers are not perfect teams, and they both have their own weaknesses.
I’m sick of all the “they won’t go far in the postseason” talk from people, about the Cubs or any other team. I’ve seen enough baseball in my life to know any team can get hot at any time. And I’ve watched teams with the best record get booted in the first round of the playoffs year after year. Be competitive, keep trucking, and good things can happen.
I agree. There’s a segment of fans who always want to give up and play for the future. Got a shot at the postseason? Go for it.
Signed the Colorado Rockies.
Yeah, right. The Rockies with the sub .400 winning percentage.
A team that has been absent from the postseason for a number of years can justify throwing the dice if they get close. But it’s still the case that results in the postseason favor better prepared teams.
Ad a Tigers fan I am happy the Cubs are keeping their assets. Less competition for us on the trade market if Stroman and their other pitchers are unavailable.
Bigger Market for Shreve and Cisnero!
Then sign the man to a long term deal.
Boooooooooooooo
Cody Bellinger Is 2022 Ian Happ Cubs give Ian 20 million dollars a season for 3 years and look at the season he have.
Plus Dollar Tommy R Is not going to spend big money.
He hoping for a playoff game or two so he can jack up beer&food prices so the suckers that fill the ballpark can add a few more dollars.
To pay off all the debt he ran up on rebuild of Wrigley Field and areas around that he purchased
The money he gets from TV will be way more than any added $ they get from jacking up food prices.
Its kind of sad to see how bad some of these GMs are. Its pretty obvious that the Cubs,Angels, and Marlins are not tittle contenders, yet the GMs are buying. Players like Ohtani, Bellinger, Stroman, Drury, Cooper, should of be available. Why keep these guys for half a year when you can get 2 or 3 prospects that will be on the cheap for the next 6 to 7 years. Thats why the Rays are so successful. Trade for the future. Unfortuntly, with the Mets having the worst GM in the game, I’m not confident in his trading abilitities
Few prospects received for rentals ever amount to anything.
Just from Tigers trading rentals: Lange, Paredes, Short, Wentz. Not all are regulars, but even utility players have value.
The Cubs are close enough that they should go for it.
They have the best run differential in the division by a country mile. They have a better RD than Philly, SF, Boston, NYY, Toronto, Arizona, Milwaukee, Cincy, Minnesota, LAA, Seattle and Miami, with it being one under Houston. They were unlucky with their sequencing earlier in the season. This is a much better club when you look at the underlying metrics.
Run differential can be a nice tool but it definitely isn’t a full proof indicator to bank on..
For example you could have 3 really good starting pitchers, (big for playoff success) but your number 4 & 5 starters are garbage they can really screw up a teams run differential….
This is especially true in divisions like the central where the teams don’t spend as much money, which takes away from regular season depth that can negatively impact run differential
Nothing is a full proof metric on its own, nor did I ever state RD is the only metric you should account for. However, you can’t tell me with a straight face that having the 7th best RD in the game is some fluke, especially with the balanced schedule implemented this season.
The fact is people in this comment section are acting like the cubs are trash, when in reality they’ve been superior to the majority of teams who’ve been considered buyers.
Talented guy who I think will do his best as a Cub…
Cubs and Angels fighting to be the worst team to end up missing the playoffs:
If the Cubs somehow sneak into the playoffs. That would obviously be great and even with an early exit it’s a step in the right direction. No one expected them to win in 2015. They got to the WC game against a very good Pirates team. Made to the nlcs. I don’t think any talking heads expected that to happen. They just happen to run into a very good Mets rotation and the hottest player on the planet at the time waa Daniel Murphy. I know no one expected him to hit 8 homeruns in like a 7 game stretch.
My point is if a team gets hot at the right time anything can happen.
The Cubs were never going to trade Stroman and Bellinger unless you knocked them over with a deal. The Farm is stacked. I was curious as to where they were going to start Shaw but since he was assigned to the ACL Speaks volumes about not rushing anybody. You’ve built something here and it’s not time to panic and go all in on Ace High. They have the easiest schedule the rest of the year and it’s a good time to sprinkle in some pitchers and give guys like Hendricks, Stroman and Steele a breather now and then. Making the playoffs is good experience for young guys like Alzolay, Hoerner, Morel etc. The rotation will be real different next year, ( At least it should be) And now’s not the time to deviate from the plan when it’s working. The foundation is set, And I’d love Bellinger back but 3 of the 6 Cubs top prospects are CF’s and 1B. Give him the QO and see what he really wants. I knew if they won games this week everyone would get dizzy with thoughts of 2016 but it is what it is.
Prospects are prospects at the end of the day. Which one of those CF will be better than former MVP Bellinger? Highly unlikely.
I would think the Cubs have a better shot of making playoffs than the Angels. Trade for some bullpen arms and who knows what can happen. Teams have a obligation to their fan base.
Why not? Cubs ain’t going anywhere this year
Everyone here saying that rentals get you nothing, Pete Crow Armstrong (cubs top prospect) was from a rental trade (Baez). So that argument holds little to no weight here; Hoyer could have gotten something in return in all likelihood. Thus why Hoyer is probably somewhat upset about them not being able to sell.
Look, if it was a guarantee they’d make the playoffs, this is a great move. If they miss the playoffs, it could stall the development of this team. Letting Bellinger and Stroman walk for nothing (which is very possible now) is objectively a long-term detractor.
They’ve ripped off a winning streak against the Nationals, White Sox, and Cardinals. Not trying to drink the haterade, but from a GMs perspective, you can see how frustrating this could be to navigate.
They will extend the QO to Bellinger. Get draft compensation same as got for Contreras. Also swing a few deals and would not be surprised to see Stroman involved in one of them. They are a better hitting team than get credit for. Division series is probably the absolute sky high limit considering everything.
Keegan Thompson also back after long layoff and tossing darts last night. He could still loom large this year yet. I hope whatever was ailing him is gone.
Prudent. Cubs are playing well. Will be fun to watch them compete for a playoff spot down the stretch. The might win that moribund division.
While most of the baseball world rules them out for the postseason, and maybe that will turn out to be true, it’s nice as a fan to see as many teams as possible going for it, like LAA and CHC.
The White Sox still have a couple of bullpen arms who the Cubs may have interest in.
Southpaw Aaron Bummer has pitched better than his ERA would indicate. He also comes with team control through 2024 and has two additional team options. Bummer is an extreme ground ball pitcher with a solid SO rate. He would benefit from a superior Cubs infield defense that he hasn’t had with the White Sox.
Cubs have Felix Stevens the White Sox would be interested in. He’s a talented 1B/DH prospect with power over defense.
LOL!
The Cubs would probably be happy to send 3B/1B Patrick Wisdom to the White Sox if the southsiders really want to stockpile more corner infielders with ample power, extreme SO% and inferior defense. Wisdom has lost his starting gig at the hot corner to former White Sox 2B Nick Madrigal when ‘slappy’ has managed to stay off of the IL.
The addition of Wisdom would allow them to move power bat Jake Burger to 2B on a more regular basis enabling the White Sox to ‘fortify’ their standing as one of MLB’s worst defensive infields while adding to their already hefty SO rate. This would become even more possible with Yoan Moncada’s next trip to the IL. LMAO!
The use of “we” by the fans is as annoying as an adult wearing a baseball cap backwards. Stop it
I’ve dug your grave for you. Just lie down in it and die already.
I have my baseball cap on backwards, while impatiently waiting for trades. WE want you to go away.
Any team that’s over .500 are going to think they’re buyers at the trade deadline. Even the last place Yankees lol. But the cubs are going nowhere massive mistake not to trade bellinger
The Cubs & Sox recent hot streaks are misleading.
The difference is that I believe the Cubs are a more complete team than the Brewers and the Reds. I think they have a good shot at winning the division.
Are they likely to go far in the playoffs? Not likely. Still, throw the fans a bone and get back to the playoffs.
This sucks. Sure they are over .500, but so are 18 of the 30 other teams in baseball. This team has no chance to make any noise even if they happen to leapfrog over a bunch of other teams in the West, which they won’t. They are the 12th worst team in baseball record wise. I think most Cubs fans want to continue the rebuild. Oh well, life of a Cubs fan.
If Bellinger has a good year, Scott Boras will get the most money for him, the Cubs could afford him but will they spend to keep him, Boras remembers how they did his client K.Bryant with the service time holdout, and declining the Cubs offer, they weren’t going to pay him what Colorado gave him. this team is built to compete in that weak division, not for a world series, like the Braves, Dodgers, Astros, Rangers?Padres tried.
Less teams punting the end of the season is good for baseball. That was the point of adding the wild card spots.
unbelievable to me how many fans are crapping on teams for trying to win. remember when less than 10 teams were actually trying to win in a given year and the sport was a total drag?
I am all in favor of having bad teams tank. KC, Oakland, CO, etc., should be trading everyone.
But when you are in the race, you have to go for it. I don’t mean to trade the entire farm for a slight upgrade, but a couple of trades for some key positions is exactly what they should do.
And FWIW, the Cubs have the best run differential in the division.
Yeah, its the fans of “My team is always in it” getting upset that that can’t pick up additions for cr@p.
Every season is sacred.
Duvall on the Cubs would be fun to watch. He could put some serious numbers in 30 or so games in wrigley
Cubs need to resign bellinger, looks like he’s back in his old MVP form once again whatever he’s doing he completely fixed his swing. Cubs seem to be in a competitive window now and for the forseable future why flip bellinger for prospects now? A prospect or two will not make the kind of impact bellinger currently has, he’s playing like an allstar. Trade him now, it will be harder to negotiate a new contract and bring him back. I’d expect if not the cubs some team to break the bank for him this off-season 6-7 years $160-185M my guess he will get paid.
A single win streak makes one team a contender while a single losing streak turns another into a seller.
These messages are hilarious, first and foremost the whole notion that Boras is the boogie man that prevents players from signing extensions is ridiculous. Bogaerts, Strasburg, Altuve, Bregman, McCullers jr, Snell, all signed extensions. It’s up to the player, not the agent.
Second, no team is capable of winning the World Series pre-trade deadline. The season is too long and weaknesses always appear (2020 not withstanding). You build a playoff caliber team in the off-season and a World Series contending team at the deadline. Granted, I don’t see the Cubs filling their three huge holes that will turn them into World Series favorites.
The Cubs, imo, should offer 6/170 with an opt out after two years. I would try like heck to get it pounded out before free agency officially begins so they don’t have to waste the QO on him now.
As for this team, they are a high leverage reliever, a middle of the order bat at third or dh and a mid rotation starter away.
Such a Cub move. Now go get Willie Contreras, Baez, Rizzo and Chapman