With at least three teams already known to be interested in Tigers right-hander Michael Lorenzen, the New York Post’s Jon Heyman reports a fourth, noting that the Marlins are also in the mix. This tracks with yesterday’s report from The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal that Miami is on the lookout for starting pitching help.
The Marlins landed David Robertson from the Mets on Thursday, bolstering the relief corps for what the Fish hope will be a successful playoff run. Miami headed into the All-Star break with a 53-39 record and a solid grip on a wild card berth, yet an eight-game losing streak after the break undid a lot of that success. Now 56-48 after last night’s win over the Tigers, the Marlins are tied with the Giants for the last NL wild card slot, just a half-game behind the Phillies and Reds and a game up on the Diamondbacks.
While facing Detroit for this three-game series, the Marlins might also come away with one of their best starters. Lorenzen has a 3.58 ERA over 105 2/3 innings this season, aided by a solid 6.5% walk rate and a fastball with outstanding spin rate, if relatively average in velocity (94.3mph). Lorenzen’s .264 BABIP and his below-average 19.9% strikeout rate are factors in his higher 4.45 SIERA, but it is worth noting that he has been particularly sharp over his last four starts. The righty has a 1.14 ERA over 23 2/3 innings during those four outings, putting on a nice showcase for rival scouts.
A four-game losing streak has all but erased whatever small hope the Tigers have of making a late run in the AL Central, as Detroit is now 46-58 and 7.5 games out of first place. Besides Lorenzen, Eduardo Rodriguez, Chasen Shreve, and Jose Cisnero have also been targets for other teams, and all four of these players will be free agents after the season (Rodriguez has an opt-out clause in his contract that he is expected to exercise).
Between Lorenzen’s rental status and the relatively inexpensive $3MM still owed to him in 2023 salary, he makes an attractive pickup option for just about any contender, particularly a Marlins team that is willing to spend but probably unlikely to truly splurge. Miami took on approximately $3.55MM in Robertson’s remaining salary, but the team’s overall payroll still sits below the $106.5MM threshold.
So based on SIERRA, Lynn is having a better season than Lorenzen? If you say so.
Advanced metrics don’t like pitch to contact pitchers with low K rates. But MLB teams are interested for a reason. They have access to much better data.
This is the top of the mountain for Lorenzen. He’s probably not a 3.5ERA guy but closer to 4. Good #4 starter for a playoff team.
And Lorenzen is super cheap.
The fish are so pitcher focused as a franchise. Kim, you need to have some offense also. How about you figure out how to draft and develop offensive players.
She’s only been there for three drafts, and it’s way too soon to judge 2023 – although her first two picks this year were, to your point, pitchers.
As for her first-rounders, she definitely reached for Jacob Berry at #6 last year (a reach noted even then). But Kahlil Watson was generally regarded as a steal at #17 in 2021, and they can’t seem to fix his swing (may be make-up issues as well).
If they’re going to draft pitchers in bulk (not necessarily a bad strategy for a team that will never pay full market price for one), then they have even less margin for error in picking and properly developing the right bats, and you’re right – they need to change how they do both.
It’s the ballpark. That is a pitchers park. Pitchers parks make pitchers look good and hitters look bad.
I don’t know why people ignore this. Put those pitchers in Colorado they don’t have the same type of success.
@grif
good point. if your pitchers throw a shutout, you win right?
A poor man’s Ohtani. Let the guy swing. MIA needs offense, too.
Defense at third and second. No more pitchers.
So Candelario at 3B moving Segura to 2B, a more nat fit?
Its hard not to look at their pitchers when thinking of a return. Xavier Edwards is having a good year but looks like his arm would limit him to 2B.
He has no pop at all but with the rule change he might be able to carve out a career at 2B. Should be a threat to swipe 40 bags with a full season of PT.
As I perused their top prospect list, that’s exactly who I came away with wanting.
I really couldn’t find a good match for Detroit, either. Both teams are lacking at 3B and OF. I expect that Miami has some pitching, but that wouldn’t be the best return for Tigers needs.
Unexpected response from server
Colt K has played the same amount of games at 2 and 3rd in AAA. With his arm I’d expect him to get considerable time at 3rd in 24.
I’d be stunned if Miami gave up Edwards for lorenzen. Tigers will need to throw something else in there.
Ummmh no. Lorenzen is having at least as good a year as Giolito if not better and they grabbed a top 100 prospect for him, albeit with ither pieces added from both sides. Edwards is ranked #11 in a farm system thin on hitting prospects.
Nobody would choose Lorenzen over Giolito.
Not what I was saying. Giolito has a longer track record, more SO et al. Point is they got a top 100 prospect for a guy having similar success to Lorenzen this year, not someone’s current #11 prospect. Big difference there.
Well make your own suggestion then. It’s not that difficult.
You mean like I did above when I suggested Xavier Edwards fior Lorenzen?
But aren’t you saying it’s not a fair trade?
I am confused.
Nope. I’m saying Edwards is about the only player they have on offence who fits what the Tigers are looking for. I don’t see it happening anyway. The fish have pitching and I expect another team more desperate for pitching will trade for Lorenzen.
Ortiz from the Orioles I think makes sense.
It is doubtful they would trade someone they just traded for……but the player appears to have a history…SD2TB2MIA….
Not gonna lie I’m kinda happy to see the Marlins actually being active buyers at the deadline instead of sellers.
They can have Michael Lorenzen
As as it prevents the Orioles from getting Michael Lorenzen
Yeah I mean I would like a starter with more upside but Lorenzen would ultimately help. Bradish & Wells have been huge for us but they’re going to blow past their career innings totals. If they start to wear out we don’t have much in the way of a replacement.
It’ll be Cole Irvin taking the ball every 5 days unless we get a surprise from John Means later in the season.
Or any injuries. We’ve been very lucky to not have major SP injuries. We don’t have depth there.
How many Orioles pitchers are ready to pitch in October?
In other words how many have the innings built up?
You tell me folks.
This is new territory for you Orioles fans.
@cards
& which one of these pitchers offers a certainty? Lorenzen is approaching his career innings limit. Jack Flaherty hasn’t been the same pitcher he once was since his injury. And Jordan Montgomery has 1 4 inning postseason start to his name.
None of these guys are providing any kind of guarantee.
Montgomery was pitching in last year’s playoffs.
I wouldn’t trust Lorenzen at all. Flaherty is boom or bust which I think fits better with a long shot team and that isn’t the Orioles. Plus he’s a west coast guy.
Montgomery is ready to pitch deep into the playoffs.
My question was how many of your pitchers are as it stands today? I am not sure a single one is. This is foreign territory for the Orioles.
You guys have do much prospect depth you could handpick any starter you wanted and get them and still not impact your team long-term. Elias has done a great job drafting prospects.
The Orioles are more likely to move unneeded veterans for pitching prospects than vice versa. GRod appears to have figured things out so their 1 through 5 is set for the moment. Pitching depth in the farm system is probably their one remaining weakness going forward.
@yank
I don’t see any unneeded veterans on the orioles roster at the moment. Mullins’ injury basically killed the unneeded veteran depth. Frazier and O’hearn are getting reps in the OF now.. Prior to that, you could’ve probably dealt Mateo but that isn’t going to return much of a prospect. He’s more valuable as a part time SS/D replacement/ pinch runner.
Mullins and Hicks will be back soon, possibly both this week. I expect these to be the types of trades they make going forward, even if not at the deadline.
Hicks and Mullins are better than Cowser today. There’s no reason to deal away the better player right now.
I apologize if that was misworded. They wouldn’t trade an outfielder, but maybe one of Urias, Mateo and Frazier.
@Lefty
Fetter has done a great job of simplifying Lorenzen’s pitch mix. He throws strikes. He goes fairly deep in games by today’s standards. His results going forward should be consistent. Plus, he’s affordable, which means something to mgt, little to fans. Why would you not want him in Baltimore?
I want a Big Name. I want someone who is a Big Star
I want someone with Singing Lessons, Acting Lessons, Dancing lessons
For three years the Tigers had him under contract, singing lessons, dancing lessons, acting lessons. I spent hundreds of thousands of dollars. I was gonna make him a big star. And let me be even more frank, just to show you that I’m not a hard-hearted man, that it’s not all dollars and cents.
Good Godfather reference Lefty
That’s not actually correct….Lorenzen has INCREASED the number of pitches he’s using consistently in his outings over the last 5-6 starts. It’s that varied mix that has led to his success, and has allowed him to use the natural speed variance of his fastball-change/curve in 2 strike counts. He’s stopped trying to nibble at corners with his less polished stuff on 2 strike &/or 3 ball counts, so part of what you said is true, but overall it’s a 5 pitch “you got no idea what I’m gonna throw” mix that’s working for him right now — at least as Jim Price explained on the Tiger Talk podcast and radio show
Trade Lorenzen for Patrick Monteverde or Will Banfield and all will be happy!
Glad to see Lorenzen given a shot to play on a winning team.
Would the Marlins send Xavier Edwards?
*Highly* unlikely… unless DET paid down Lorenzen to minimum wage and threw in a lottery ticket? I can’t speak for either team, just giving my best insight from outside.
Look at the Giolito return and compare Lorenzens stats. The Angels got an mlb top 100 player for him and Edwards is currently ranked as Miami’s #11 (I would expect he’ll move up when they put out the next rankings). Edwards has flaws too…no power, weak arm, but he seems to fit the profile of what the Tigers GM is looking for and has speed and hitting ability. He’d likely work at 2B but Floruda has Arraez there for the foreseeable future.
All true, Motor City. Which suggests that X is indeed more valuable than a(ny) rental arm. I do suppose I’m basing my gut feeling off many years dissecting trade deadline deals, not one singular trade that whiffs of expiring desperation. As suggested earlier, I could be waaay off, but Lorenzen+ feels right for X Eddy, and has the feelings of a win/win trade.
I think the returns for Lorenzen and Erod will be fairly robust. Harris has done well in trades do far. A team desperate for pitching, which is not the Marlins, will bite on them. I don’t get why the Marlins still have him in the minors with his AAA stars at a time when they need offence. The guy gets on base.
Good luck in the returns, for sure! It is a seller’s market, so go get ‘um. You’re probably more right to assume better-than-decent returns, but as you say it probably won’t be the Fish giving up all the clams. I stopped watching/scouting X when we traded him to Tampa (we had him pegged as 2B as well), but maybe Miami is trying him at different positions in AAA? I couldn’t tell ya why he’s not setting the table there; logic says he “should” be but 2B is manned by Arraez. All the best MCBB, cheerio!
Cheers dude. Saw your guys play Toronto recently in T.O. very cool to see Soto, Tatis and Machado!
The Marlins need to focus on offense first and foremost. They are 14th in the NL in runs scored, even with Arraez.
The marlins terrible offense has been masked by Arraez and Soler to a degree. There’s a lot of easy outs in that lineup.
Lorenzen is actually a guy I thought Atlanta might be interested in obtaining.
I’m interested in winning the lottery, can I have a storydoe about that8n thefew days b4 next Powerball ?
Lorenzen has pitched very well the last couple months, Looking great. I have watched him most of the year. He would be a very good pick up for a team.
I would be OK with the Tigers keeping Michael Lorenzen. He’s homer prone but he’s not getting blown up.
It’s a mystery no one has acquired ERod. His numbers are better than Lornzen’s and he’s LH.
I really think it should be about what the Tigers want.
Not about who is interested.
It’s all about salesmanship. Who the heck ever needed a pet rock?
This is were GMs show their mettle.
In fact, I’d probably trade both Lorenzen and ERod to.who ever has an extended series against Baltimore in early August….just to knock them out of first place……
Baltimore won’t bite? TB or NY can and Baltimore will regret not taking action. Or whoever it is…Cincinnati or Milwaukee, LA or AZ ect ect ect