Left-hander Dallas Keuchel has opted out of his minor league deal with the Twins, The Athletic’s Britt Ghiroli reports (Twitter link). Minnesota now has a couple of days to decide whether or not to add Keuchel to the active roster, or else release the veteran southpaw.
Since inking that minors pact in June, Keuchel has a very impressive 1.13 ERA over six starts and 32 Triple-A innings. His 21.2% strikeout rate and 9.1% walk rate are nothing to write home about, but his 61.5% grounder rate indicates that the 35-year-old is still very capable of keeping the ball in the park. The Triple-A numbers are at least a hint that Keuchel might have something left in the tank, after a 6.35 ERA over 222 2/3 innings with the White Sox, Diamondbacks, and Rangers during the 2021-22 seasons left some impression that Keuchel’s career might be over.
This is the second of two opt-out dates in Keuchel’s contract, as he passed on triggering his first date on July 21. Since his second opt-out date fell on the day of the trade deadline, it was more logical for Keuchel to wait and access his options to see what the Twins or other teams might need pitching-wise now that they’re prohibited from addressing those needs on the trade market.
The Twins’ pitching depth led to some trade calls pre-deadline, though Minnesota chose to retain all of their starters. As such, the Twins will make their push for the AL Central title with their current staff of Joe Ryan, Pablo Lopez, Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda, Bailey Ober, plus Louie Varland and Simeon Woods Richardson are in the minors as depth, and Chris Paddack might be back from Tommy John surgery in September.
On paper, there doesn’t appear to be a clear opening for Keuchel to make regular starts in Minnesota, so the Twins might pass on keeping the veteran in the organization. Keuchel might instead find an opportunity on a team that is out of the race and looking to fill innings down the stretch, or it’s even possible that a contender might see Keuchel as a fallback option if that club didn’t add a starter at the deadline (or if an injury arises in the coming days). Ghiroli previously reported that if Keuchel’s contract is selected to the majors, he’ll earn the prorated portion of a $2.05MM salary.
Baltimore is waiting for you to arrive, Dallas
I thought Baltimore wants to win this year.
Lol
Truth is that he’s not better than any pitcher that the Orioles have on their ML roster….and most of their pitchers have better futures ahead.
The team has the best record in the AL. It appears the FO knows what they’re doing….even if most fans can’t figure it out.
That’s false, Samuel. Irvin routinely gets shelled on the mound. It’s not working. Keuchel at least gives hope for better results.
Regardless, you need more depth than what’s on the 25 man roster. The Orioles don’t have it in the pitching department.
Elias knows Keuchel as well as anybody does – If they can make room on the 40, I think they should do it.
What? Irvin rarely pitches and the O’s just picked up Jack Flaherty and Fujinami last week, and Tyler Wells likely gets moved to the bullen. And Mychael Givens and John Means should be back by September. Dallas Keuchel would just sit in AAA again.
Keuchel wants to be on a 26 man though. Not sure the O’s can offer him that today.
@Appalachian_Outlaw – Having seen Keuchel pitching in person, I can say I fully expect him to get destroyed at the MLB level. Not sure if Keuchel contributes $100k a year or something to MLBTR or something, but if you look at his peripherals you see a 4.20 FIP and a 4.01 xFIP.
Keuchel was giving up a lot of hard contact when I saw him in person with a fastball that sat at 85mph, maxing out at 87mph.
It’s actually really curious how favorable the coverage of Keuchel is on this site… a site which usually favors things like FIP
@martras
FIP isn’t a worthwhile metric for a groundball pitcher. He’s obviously not a sub 2 ERA guy but his whole pitching philosophy is to induce ground balls. The FIP formula doesn’t like high groundball pitchers.
@Bstrowmang – His xFIP is 4.01, if you like that one better. I saw him pitch as well, just my personal observations, but hitters were able to square up his pitches pretty well. The hard hit balls just went directly at people. His lack of swing and miss results also make it hard to pitch out of jams which may or may not be his fault.
When I say I think he’ll get destroyed, it’s from my personal observations watching him pitch.
He’s already made $100 million. He doesn’t have to do anything for several lifetimes
And he’s choosing to do that by playing a game he loves. Sounds pretty amazing…
Indeed. The fire still burns, and that’s very admirable
agreed. the fact that he wants to keep playing and put up some great numbers in AAA bodes well.
I’ve read somewhere before he is close to receiving his pension based on playing time I believe?
I believe he only has 9 years and some change. 10+ years gets you the max pension.
He’s at just over 9 service yrs…..so he needs a bit less than a year.
MLB teams recently have quite often carried guys until they get 10….Phils did so with Harrison and other teams did the same this yr…
For Dallas to get “easily” to 10 he’ll need to go the long route in the pen…
That’s what MLB players today need, a pension. They should have a tribute game where the fans pass the hat and give the money collected to the poor, check-to-check player who will have to sleep out by their pool until the much needed funds arrive.
bitterness will eat you from the inside, man
I don’t care who you are, that’s funny!
Pensions are in place to protect those who don’t make millions. So you want to blame the players and their union for negotiating the best deal for the players. Most of these players maybe opting into their pensions earlier than most working class folks as their careers are not as long. The earlier you collect, the less you get monthly. Maybe the players shouldn’t get health care too bc some of the players are multi millionaires and can afford it themselves. League minimum is $600k. A player with a two year career can’t live the rest of his life off that. The pensions are more in place for guys like that more so than the multi millionaires. After 43 days of service time gets a 34k a year pensions. After 10 years it’s bumped to the max of $100k. Most players don’t make it to 10 years service time.
Go get him Dodgers – LOL
He’ll fit right in with Lynn and Yarborough.
His ERA isn’t high enough for the Dodgers.
They make no deals today now they’ll let keuchel walk. Ridiculous front office
Cleveland was practically handing them the division
Cleveland is going to win the division anyway despite their trades.
Keuchel is not going to come to the majors and throw a 1.32 ERA. . He’s dancing away from AAA hitters, 5 IP at a time. It’s more Bundy and Archer reclamation and this year the Twins had the sense (and enough healthy options) to not bring him up. I predict Dallas does get a chance somewhere else and finishes with an ERA over 5.00.
But that’s absurd. Why sign him at all (especially with an opt out date) if he wasn’t going to make the roster no matter what he did? His recent struggles were known before he signed… Unless the FO is SO incompetent they didn’t know what his MLB numbers were the last few seasons
Why sign him? Because St Paul has to field a team too and he gave them six starts that weren’t terrible. It could have been as simple as wanting to see what he had to offer and decide if it would play in the majors. You can be both successful in AAA and also not be likely to succeed in the majors. Last season he had a 2.3-2.4 ERA in AAA and a 9+ ERA in the majors. If there’s no velocity, his command isn’t there, if his BABIP is freakishly low or whatever other metric shows him to look likely to be exposed when promoted then they aren’t going to move him up.
@phantomofdb – Keuchel probably did have an outside possibility of making the roster with the Twins. If Keuchel’s fastball was sitting at 88mph instead of 85mph, the Twins might have felt comfortable trading a starter.
I think it’s clear from the lack of any willing trade partners that Keuchel was not viewed as an asset by any of the competing teams in baseball, otherwise, the Twins would have just traded him even for a middling asset.
The only reason the Twins wouldn’t grant him his release is to gauge Keuchel’s interest in the bullpen at this point.
1.12 ERA in 6 minor league games in 32 innings. Someone will take a chance on him.
4.20 FIP. 85mph fastball. Nobody wanted to even flip a PTBNL for him. Don’t get your hopes up.
Atlanta would give him a shot. Fried is about to come back, so they might not have room on the 40-man.
No! No no no no no. They can easily find anyone, anywhere deliver a 1.4 whip, can’t strike people out, and somehow still manages to walk people at an above average rate.
And I bet the person they find has stuff that can play up when being moved the to bullpen, unlike keuchel. Would never make the playoff roster.
They already gave Allard starts. DK is probably about the same level of Meh as Kolby at this point.
I wouldn’t bet on that. The fact he wasn’t called up or had any teams interested in a trade seems to suggest hes riding luck. I would be willing to bet if he made a start this year he would get beaten like a red-headed step child.
I love the name.
He’s done. Let him go. Saw him get hammered in TX last year.
who doesn’t get hammered every so often? shouldn’t have an impact on his game if it was an off day!
As a White Sox fan who also saw him regularly get hammered, it was by no means an off day.
I would get hammered if I was stuck in Texas too
Cashman played the long game and is about to get his guy. 5d chess.
Cincy needs him until the kids come back. Weaver should have been DFA and now lively should be DFA too after today. They need someone to eat innings. Go get him Krall
Hate to say it, but I think they played terrible because the guys in the clubhouse felt the front office left them down. It wasn’t just the pitching, there were errant throws, kicking balls around too.
I wonder if he’d be productive in the pen if not a starter. Cincinnati needs both.
Nah his noodle arm won’t work in the pen. He is best used as an innings eating starter who will get you to the 5th giving up 2-3 runs. He is a ground ball machine so a team with very good defense should give him a shot. Not sure how a pitcher who hasn’t seen 90mph on a radar gun since Obama was in office manages to induce so many grounders but he does. Should try to learn the knuckle. Seems like a perfect candidate to be an ace knuckler and the right age too.
coffinnails take is perfect. Agree 100%
@thecoffinnail and Astros Hot Takes –
Not sure about that. Having a pitcher come in who throws 10-15mph different than the last pitcher the hitters face can get you an inning of “what the heck was that?” on the batters’ timing. Not saying Keuchel will be good as a reliever, but he might be adequate as a middle innings guy.
He’s not going to make it as a 5 inning starter. The rockets which come off his bat aren’t always going to do directly at a fielder.
Can’t blame him for wanting to opt out. The Twins did nothing aggressively at the deadline. They know they won’t make it past the first round of the playoffs. Good job front office, you should be proud of yourself or doing your job and working so hard.
Perhaps he will go to the Yankees, in a front office position, as it seems the entire management structure has gone on sabbatical.
Dodgers?
How does this sound for a Dodger fan:
Kuchel and Lynn are in your rotation. No, wait – and they are doing better than Gonsolin and Urias!!
Ok, a stretch on that last part those 2 are really not performing well so a little creative license for emphasis please.
Cardinal s
I could see the O’s taking a flyer on him, they still need some depth even after adding Flaherty. Still hopeful Means makes an effective return and Wells can get a breather and come back effective as well. But Dallas is at the least worth a look in my opinion.
I agree. As a depth piece, he’s worth a flyer. It would cost almost nothing, and if he gives you 5 innings a start and keep you close it’s a win.
need arms to stretch out pitchers out what are all at or over their career max for IP . if Dallas is even slightly like he has been recently in the minors, and can eat some innings — worth a 40 man spot and is effectively a rental w/o loss of top prospects. managers always talk about playoff experiences vets helping the young kids learn how to handle the post season demands. come to Camden, Dallas — this will be your quickest route to the post season.
Wow, listened to a great On the Verge podcast for the Orioles today. the tired arms case for the Orioles is actually worse than I thought, at the current use rate, here are the projected pitch count figures (doesn’t include Flaherty nor Means or likely increase spot starts for Irvin):
Comparison vs last yr’s pitch count (PC)
Wells 170% of the pitches he threw last yr
Kramer 150%
Gibson 117.5%
Bradish 115.6%
GRod 233% (!!)
The hosts of the podcast make a good point that even without considering injury, that decreased velo and effectiveness from arm slot, etc should be expected without some intervention to the rotation.
(Another option to an ad hoc treatment with Irvin maybe the O’s should consider a 6 man rotation with Flaherty.)
It’ll be interesting regardless… we’re in uncharted waters in so many ways. Still, better this problem while in 1st place in the ALE. (And having the series records for tiebreakers in all the head-2-heads against all the other team except Boston (3-3). (Assuming we take at least 1 of the last 3 against TBay).)
For Orioles fans, I’d recommend the On the Verge podcast as they are less hysterical and more analytical in their takes.
This is the first time in my lifetime that the Twins don’t have roster space for a retread/reclamation pitcher to get a shot. That alone gives me a glimmer of hope for this front office.
All their rotation cost them was….
Luis Arraez, Chase Petty, Spencer Steer, Christian Encarnation-Strand, Brusdar Graterol, Taylor Rogers, Brent Rooker, Nelson Cruz and $35MM this year.
That’s remarkably cheap for one of the top rotations in the game. What have you got there, one all star, the tail end of Taylor Rogers’ average career, the desicated remains of Nelson Cruz and some kids that range from raw to having a good few months in the bigs. And keep in mind that as awesome as Steer and CES have looked, playing them in MIN only works with Lewis and Julien on the bench. They were caught in some serious prospect traffic and didn’t have as clear a road to playing time as they got in CIN.
One perennial All-Star with 3 years of inexpensive team control entering his prime. BTV +42.5
One top 100 pitching prospect and #1 Twins pitching prospect with potential ace upside with team control for 6 years. BTV +12.7
One quality MLB ready starting 3rd baseman under team control for 6 years. BTV +20.0
One near MLB ready top 100 hitting prospect with team control for 6 years. BTV +15.0
One elite starter/relief pitcher prospect with team control for 3 more years. +17.9
One DH/bench bat with team control with 1 option remaining. BTV +10.0
That covers the guys the Twins would have control over. Rogers and Cruz wouldn’t have been controlled by the Twins at this point.
If you don’t think that’s value worth noting, well, not sure if there’s some sort of conversation to be had.
I largely agree and yet I repeat: Rotations are expensive and that’s still pretty cheap.
Go build a rotation for less and you’ll find what a bargain this one was: Petty is a fine prospect who needs to keep advancing. Graterol is a very good reliever now, not a prospect anymore. But MIranda was just as sure a thing as those two are if you go check his value from last last summer. Rooker had a moment but has proven to be the guy we traded away.
That’s a mix of some nice stuff and some filler and a little money that is in the top quarter of all rotations. Hat tip to the FO for putting it together. Keep in mind that a lot of the nice stuff came from positions of org depth and we still have Mahle and Paddack under contract and most of these guys are young.
Sorry, but Mahle, Maeda and Gray are all potential free agents at the end of the year. The Twins have Lopez, Ryan, Ober and Paddack for next year, assuming no injuries. Varland or Woods-Richardson are the most likely 5th man rotation candidates in the system at the moment.
Paddack is under contract for 2 years after the Twins signed him to an extension, but you’re putting a lot of faith in him for a guy who’s undergone multiple TJs in a pretty short period of innings. He honestly needed TJ at the beginning of 2021, but the Padres opted for rest and rehab. The Padres then traded him to the Twins knowing Paddack likely needed TJ in 2022, which was proven correct in short order once the season started. Paddack’s actual results have been pretty elevated vs. his metrics, either.
Considering command is the last thing to return after the UCL procedure, it’s fair to expect Paddack to struggle a bit for at least the first half of 2023, assuming he doesn’t have any injury issues, which seems unlikely in and of itself given how often he’s found himself resting instead of pitching throughout his career.
This rotation is currently very good. The real performance in a current seasons is valuable. The Twins were able to gather these guys though some simple trades that only involved one player at the top of his game, a few good prospects and a little money. That’s the assertion.
To do this otherwise would require huge free agent money, at least as many top prospects and probably more than one starting MLB player. If you don;t draft them MLB starting pitchers are hard to come by. You seem to think that the list above is exorbitant but it’s much less than many teams put out for worse results. Look through the similar rotations and see what it cost to pick up the non-drafted members and it’ll be much more than Arreaz, Steer, CES, Graterol and Petty. Next year is another problem, but this year they did well.
@crise – The rotation has fallen off quite a bit since May
April-May = 3.35 ERA, 3.44 FIP, 3.78 xFIP
June-Aug = 4.53 ERA, 4.06 FIP, 3.89 xFIP
If it weren’t for Maeda’s return, things would have been a lot uglier
Good time to opt out as teams readjust their rosters from the trade deadline.
Well, we know the Mets need some pitchers now. Why not give Dallas a shot at proving himself on the MLB level again?
True, I was thinking the same thing. Their loss on a balk with the bases loaded pretty much fits the way everything went down today…
It does … a perfect picture of how the ’23 season fell apart. Now I wonder if the remainder of this year’s team has any resiliency left at all? Alvarez stepped up, the BP took it away.
This has Dodgers written all over it to me.
Just a hunch.
The Mets have no pitching am I supposed sign him?
Toronto.
Angels , need lightning in a bottle from someone else in rotation.
Buddy, just adjust yourself to a lefty role out of the pen and enjoy 2-3 more years. You are never gonna start for a competitive club again. And I say this with love!
Welcome home Dallas & Kelly!
Honestly a perfect time to be able to opt out. Many teams that missed out on starting pitching to get an opportunity with.
The VERY LEAST the Twins front office could have done at Trade Deadline would have been to DFA Joey Gallo and add Dallas Keuchel to the Twins roster.
To DFA Gallo would vastly improve the Twins’ offense.
Activating Keuchel and going with a six man rotation the rest of the year would have saved the tiring, weakening arms of Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober and Kenta Madea.
It is time for the entire Front Office of the Twins to be fired, and let the new Front Office pick out their new manager and coaches.
7 years of failure from Falvey and Levine are enough!
Ryan is at 122 innings, Ober is at 98.2 innings, Maeda is at 53.2 innings. If they’re “tired” it’s not a ringing endorsement for the training staff.
Not sure if you’ve watched Keuchel pitch for the Saints or looked at his peripherals, but if you want the Twins to lose every game he pitches, sure, the 6 man rotation is a great idea.
Aside from that, it’s pretty clear nobody in MLB wanted Keuchel. They’re aware he’s throwing at 85-87mph and his FIP is 4.20 in AAA.
I agree they should have added DK for the reasons stated but this FO will not let gallo walk because they paid him too much (FO may die on that hill) and are afraid kirilloff gets injured again. I hope DK or someone else in their rotation takes a bullpen role but not likely. They have needed bullpen help since last off-season. Twins needed a lot of moves to happen to make a run at the postseason, if Terry Francona and company don’t take their chances away from them even making it again. Heads will roll in Minnesota if the new pohlad in charge has balls to do it this off-season.
The Twins also could create a roster spot for Dallas Keuchel by moving Jose DeLeon, who is done for the season with injuries to the 60 day DL.
I still think a DFAed Joey Gallo would be an improvement as well.
The Deadbirds are down two starters. Bring him on
Didn’t know dude was still in the league.
Red Sox could use him, they have 3 starters on the IL. Theie rotation right now are 3 starters and 2 pen games. They should have enough room to add him and still stay under the threshold.
Keuchel needs to knuckleball his way back to the top.
He’ll probably sign with the Dodgers since they missed out on ERod..
@ActionDan
if Detroit and LA’s front office had an agreement and only reason it didn’t happen as ERod as reported… that really was a headscratcher. love to hear his thinking for that. now Detroit will lose him for nothing. maybe that was his reason (grenade over your shoulder on your way out).
I’m gonna say Cincinnati will give him a shot. They were looking for a SP at the deadline, ground ball pitcher in GABP, for a little of nothing. Question marks on the health of Greene and Lodolo all add to it
Sadly, we could sign him to be our ace
He needs to be kept just so he doesn’t come back and burn us in the postseason. Damn, with Falvey & Lavine’s track record with deals I see this burning the Twins in the postseason. 6 man roto in Minneap for the win. With the way Ryan & Ober who were top 5 starters in the league 1st half of the year dropped off is why this should be more than beneficial all around especially after silence yesterday which besides not getting bednar from Pitt I was ok with.
The Twins need to bring Dallas Keuchel to their 26 man roster.
The Twins have 3, maybe 5 starters, who have been struggling for the past month from too much use, and desperately need a 6 man rotation to get them through these last 50 plus games.
We are TIRED of Ryan giving up 4 home runs a game because Joe Ryan is TIRED.
If the Twins refuse to DFA Joey Gallo, who is a detriment to the Twins offense, they can put Jose De Leon, whose injuries prevent him from returning to the roster in 2023, on the 60 day disabled list, and add Dallas to the rotation.