11:14am: It’s a one-year, $9MM deal for Heyward, McDaniel now adds. Terms have been agreed upon, but the arrangement is still pending the completion of a physical.
11:03am: The Dodgers are nearing a deal to re-sign free agent outfielder Jason Heyward, reports Kiley McDaniel of ESPN. It’ll be a one-year for the Excel Sports client if and when it’s finalized.
After a largely underwhelming seven-year run with the Cubs, Heyward signed with the Dodgers and had a bounceback season at the plate, turning in a strong .269/.340/.473 batting line with 15 home runs and 23 doubles in 377 trips to the plate. Last years’ 17% strikeout rate was his lowest since 2018, while his 9% walk rate was his best mark since the shortened 2020 campaign. Some of those improvements stemmed from being shielded almost entirely from left-handed pitching — just 7.4% of his plate appearances came against lefties — but Heyward also showed dramatic improvement against right-handed pitching as well.
Beyond his strong year at the plate, Heyward continued to rate as an above-average defender in the outfield. Los Angeles gave him the vast majority of his work in right field, but Heyward also logged 120 innings in center field and the first 25 innings of his career in left field. On the whole, Defensive Runs Saved (+3) and Outs Above Average (+6) felt he was a strong defensive presence in his 769 frames of work.
That steady glovework from Heyward also freed the Dodgers to get creative with perennial MVP candidate Mookie Betts, who not only logged time at second base but also spent considerable time at the shortstop position for the first time in his career. Lack of experience notwithstanding, Betts proved an apt defender at both positions, giving manager Dave Roberts significant flexibility in filling out the lineup card without needing to sacrifice substantially on the defensive side of things.
Heyward’s return could once again free Betts to log significant time in the infield — particularly against right-handed pitching. Against southpaws, Betts can return to his more customary right field. Other names in L.A.’s outfield mix include center fielder James Outman, utilityman/left fielder Chris Taylor and top prospect Andy Pages, who might’ve debuted in 2023 had shoulder surgery not cut his season short. Pages is expected to be ready for spring training, the Dodgers announced at the time of his June surgery, but Heyward’s return takes some pressure off him as he ramps back up from that procedure. And, if Pages ultimately pushes his way onto the big league roster, his right-handed bat will give Roberts a natural complement to lefties like Heyward and Outman.
It’s possible the Dodgers will bring in additional outfield help — they’ve been tied to Teoscar Hernandez, most notably — but starting pitching has been the primary focus for president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman, GM Brandon Gomes and the rest of the front office thus far. In addition to their widely expected pursuit of Shohei Ohtani, the Dodgers have been connected to free agents like Blake Snell and the now off-the-market Aaron Nola, in addition to trade candidate Dylan Cease.
From a payroll perspective, Heyward’s straight $9MM deal brings the Dodgers up to about $150MM in projected spending, per Roster Resource. They’re well shy of the $237MM luxury tax threshold at this point, sitting between $167-168MM (using MLBTR’s projected 2024 arbitration salaries). That could leave them with as much around $70MM before they reach luxury tax status — though paying the CBT has not historically been a concern for the deep-pocketed Dodgers.
With Heyward on a one-year commitment and other veterans such as Blake Treinen, Miguel Rojas and Austin Barnes potentially coming off the books at the end of the 2024 season, the Dodgers have under $100MM of luxury-tax obligations on the books beyond the 2024 campaign. Bringing back Heyward on this contract maintains much of that enormous long-term flexibility in an offseason where the market features several candidates for weighty long-term deals (Ohtani, Snell and Yoshinobu Yamamoto among them).
I saw Jason as a possible LF for the Braves.
Why? Ozuna and Grissom should suffice, Atlanta ball club needs a starting pitcher. I saw them targeting a Duvall reunion as a backup outfielder and bench bat over Hayward.
Duvall already does what Ozuna and Grissom both do: hit right-handed. Of course, Ozuna could be the DH and Heyward could slide into a LF platoon.
Idk how serious they are about Grisson in the OF.
Duvall isn’t signing to be a backup, even in ATL. If he signs in ATL, I’d want them to trade Grissom.
I agree, my whole point is that if they were going to add to the mix, it wouldn’t be for another RHH (well, Grisson could be traded or sent to minors if they added one).
The Braves really don’t need to make any moves at all.
I would be shocked if Atlanta brought Duvall back; at a certain point Duvall is going break down as being a diabetic is not easy when an athletic.
I don’t think Ozuna could even make a throw into the infield without it bouncing multiple times.
Ozuna can still hit at a solid rate, but his days in the field are numbered my friend.
Grissom yes, but they still need a quality option B. Not only as insurance for Grissom, but they also.need a backup other than Wall that’s a good hitter as a situational bat off the bench.
Their off-season isn’t done just yet.
I’d like to see that OF bench bat, a trade for Cease, and then they need to sign a UT infield player thats capable of handling SS in case anything happens to Arcia. And please don’t say Grissom, his defense was really bad at SS.
You were wrong
How so?
Did you read the headline? He signed with the dodgers
Duh. Just because someone signs with a particular team, that doesn’t mean they weren’t a possibility somewhere else.
It wasn’t a call, but you do you.
Didn’t say he wasn’t. Just said you were wrong. No need to get defensive sir
No you hang up
Duh. Just because someone signs with a particular team m, that doesn’t mean they can’t play somewhere else. There’s still time. It’s only thanksgiving
Who you calling sir sir
How was I wrong? I said he was a possibility, and he was.
He went back to the Dodgers and the Braves didn’t talk to him. Can’t go somewhere if the other side doesn’t show interest. You were wrong. Stop whining like a child and accept it, he wasn’t a possibility, so you were wrong
Apparently you don’t know the definition of possibility.
And do you know that the Braves didn’t talk to him? Unless you’re in their org, you don’t.
So you were wrong.
Have you seen reports that he talked to the Braves? Read the article. You were wrong, he was not and is not an option
Can’t we all just get along…island ice tea?
Just say no
Heyward won’t be a major upgrade over Eddie Rosario on the offensive side.
Veteran presence, clubhouse guy, cost-effective, and had a bounce back season. I knew they were going to try and re-sign him.
More Heyman than Say Hey kid at this point.
Hazard to guess most Dodgers fans are hoping for some big money signings this off-season.
Ohtani will be their DH and Yamamoto, perhaps, a starter.
Please baseball Gods
To get Yamamoto and Ohtani in the same offseason is a tall task.
Would be one of the best Dodger off seasons in maybe history
Its good to want things
The Dodgers have the means and desire, they’re a winner every year, and the west coast is a desirable location for many players coming from Japan. I can see it happening.
I just hope the off season isn’t the highlight of the year for the Dodgers
The Giants have the means and major desire, and have 3 rings the past 13 years, are also on the west coast, but still can’t see them landing both, it’s a tall task. But definitely not impossible. A lot would have to go right.
But the Giants aren’t very good–and haven’t been, outside of one outlier season, for a bit now. (And the three rings are growing increasingly smaller in the rear-view; those flags will fly forever, but the championship DNA is essentially nonexistent by the Bay now).
If all other things are equal–money, relative distance to their native Japan, etc–why would any player choose the Giants over the Dodgers in 2023?
Well, that’s a good question to ask a player. Maybe a player doesn’t want to be in the shadow of other stars. Maybe he wants to be the one built around. With this new playoff format, all it takes is to get in and get hot. Ask Correa why he signed with the Giants. Money! That would be my answer. One thing is for certain. Whatever happens with Yamamoto or Ohtani, the Giants will insure they drive the price up.
Dodgers winning the off season if they do those signs won’t calculate to a deep playoff run. Both Braves and dodgers have to show that they can win post season series
Doyers window is slowly closing from their peak. Not much starting pitching and the days of Bellinger and sager are gone.
Except we have betts and freeman and still a highly rated farm. If we get ohtani (I expect LAD to sign him), we will have perhaps the best 1-2-3 in baseball history. And even after signing Ohtani we will still have nearly 50 million to use on signing or trading for other guys to improve the roster. I don’t see that as their window closing.
However the astros on the other hand…
Not for friedman. Plenty of financial flexibility for LAD along with both players being interested in the Dodgers.
Unless Ohtani signs with the Giants. Those two teams have to be the favorites to get him and the Giants have a bigger need.
JCL, I notice that the 40 is full after this signing. I too have Dodgers getting Ohtani which means someone is falling off the 40. Now, looking at the starting pitching – how do you make a championship staff with those 5 young arms and a returning 100 innings or so – Buehler?
Yeah, there is payroll space available but not 40 spaces for signing SP.
I think a trade for a Burnes or Glasnow is their solution to free up some spots while adding SP. Hope Ohtani / Gonsolin / May rebound in 25 after losing Glasnow and WB.
Now pick about 3 young very long controllable and cheap arms you want to trade, add Lux / Cartaya / Vargas and maybe you have a solution.
Glasnow, Burnes and Ohtani get you into the luxury tax for just the 3 so you aren’t adding any more so can’t have injuries because yoh traded away your young SP depth.
Catch 22 in La La land but lots of options.
PF, on the one hand, I’d like Giants to sign him so he isn’t a Dodger. On the other hand, if Dodgers sign him, they have little wiggle room to add quality SP unless they make some trades of young mlb ready SP and inf / C prospects. 40 is full now.
If they make trades for Glasnow/Burnes and sign Ohtani they should be both in luxury tax range AND deplete the young depth. So any injury is catastrophic. Also, can’t fill out BP or other areas of need – albeit they don’t have many more needs.
Or the Padres can sign him and keep Soto and have a Tatis/Soto/Manny/Ohtani/Bog/Campy kind of line up going where they score 12 runs a game so the scrap pile pitching can still win with a 8.50 ERA!
Much rather see the Padres go all in on Yamamoto and Lee, while also trading for Luzardo or Garrett and signing 2 of Lugo/Rodriguez/Fedde/Junis for the back end of the rotation and depth.
Then add Sanchez and a RH platoon bat for DH.
Have you seen Carpenter’s workouts with Driveline this offseason? youtu.be/j-9zxxWxBOY?si=RoWeQNhbcObDoiiv This guy is going to be a hitting coach very soon. .
Yeah agree on Yam and Lee and your trade ideas – just don’t want to lose Snelling / Salas and Merrill – the others can go (maybe not Marsee).
What do you project those trades to take?
I do believe that a trade for a SP is going to be the solution to getting another upper tier guy. Yam might need a year or 2 to be a 1 / 2 so take the pressure off of him by making him as 3/4 in 24.
Add Martinez to your list of back ends / RP.
Thanks for the link on Carp.
David
I think you are right about Nick. I really like him and he seemed to want to be a Padre long term.
The Marlins are in serious need of OF and middle IF and would likely want a pitcher that is at least close to MLB ready. Maybe someone with 2025 as his projected arrival time. I think its going to take 2 of the Padres top 10 prospects or an MLB player and a top 100 prospect.
Maybe something like Grisham, Lesko, and Head. Or Lesko, Zavala, Lizzaraga. I don’t see the Padres even considering a trade that involved Salas, Merrill, or Snelling. There is no Soto on the market.
If Grisham is part of the trade it allows Chisolm to move back to his natural position at SS or even 2B.
Either way its going to take a big chunk of talent to get a controllable LH starter that can step into the #3 slot in the Padres rotation.
I’d be good with Grish (save 4-5 mil which might put a big dent in Lee contract) and Leslie and Head for Luzardo.
With Yam that gives a strong 1-4 SP and Martinez followed by a group of 6 spot candidates in house now. Followed by Snelling in 25.
This scenario doesn’t even allow for prospect capital from a Soto trade – returning an MLB OF and SP would round that out pretty well.
There’s a few arms on the 40 that won’t be missed after a dfa. Gus Varland, Yency Almonte, Bryan Hudson….
Boy, all those Dodger and Giant fans are going to be disappointed when Shohei resigns with the Angels.
Maybe he goes to Seattle with Snell. What a 2025 rotation that would be. Snell and his 2 CY’s might be the 4!
Angelscamp…as a Giants fan myself, I expect Ohtani to sign elsewhere and wouldn’t be surprised, well maybe a little, if he resigned. The only thing is, what has Ohtani learned while being there?
There are a few guys on the roster that the Dodgers could DFA without much thought, I think. Victor Gonzalez and Bryan Hudson, for example. Neither of those guys would make them hesitate to sign Yamamoto or Ohtani.
They seem to be fond of Almonte (they tendered him a contract after all, so they at least think he’s worth the $1.5m he got last season), but you can probably replace him on your list with Victor Gonzalez.
If that happened, and he was able to untie himself and rip the duct tape from his mouth, Shohei would tell you he’s disappointed in that development as well.
After a time, you may sometimes find wanting is more pleasing than having. It is illogical and yet often it is true.
So found Mr. Spock and also the Mets’ fans with Scherzer.
Ohtani and Yamamoto sound great, but Ohtani is an injury risk and Yamamoto is unproven in MLB although unparalleled in NPB. But Snell is also risky and the pool of elite talent is limited.
You could also ask Arson Judge why he signed with the Giants.
Old joke, but to entertain you, Judge was very willing to jump on board with the Giants if the Yankees didn’t match their price.
Best 1-2-3 ever? Maybe? Although, the Big Red Machine had 4 guys who each won at least one mvp award. 3 hall of famers and one who would have been.
Braves with Maddux, Glavine, Smoltz.
Orioles with Palmer, McNally, Cuellar, Dobson
His contract is not cost effective. Grips over pay for a guy who has been miserably bad most of the time over the last five years.
Salaries are overinflated and he had a bounce back year. Considering the high end contracts, 9 mill for 1 year isn’t going to change anything financially for the dodgers
Except if they sign the big name free agents then his true cost will be almost 18m.
I think we both need hindsight to see how the financials play out. Time will tell and give us the bigger picture
Or any team really. $9 million is what they pay back of the rotation starters and platoon OF today.
I agree. OK he almost sniffed a 2 WAR season but is 9 milly worth that? He’s already in his mid 30s. I don’t expect a duplicate season at the plate. He swing is still long and he can’t hit the other way low and outside. I was surprised he even would get 6 M from anyone actually.
Gives good meeting while hitting .170.
Nice guy, not much left unfortunately.
2.2 fWAR
121 wRC+
5 DRS in RF
veteran presence
1 year deal
I’ll take that
I’ll take it too …. So long as that comes with a left fielder that can play every day.
Yes and for only $9 million this year for a backup. Nice way to retire in La La Land. Why not?
Of course Magic Johnson burps up $9 million.
And, on behalf of the rest of the league, you can have it. $9 million for a soon-to-be 35 year old platoon OF? The Dodgers aren’t lacking for veteran presence.
Lance Lynn just got a guarantee of 11 mill and he’s no where near the shape that Heyward is in. 9 million one year deal isn’t breaking the bank for the Dodgers.
Are you saying Lynn is inattentive to physical fitness? C’mon, He’s still able to walk from the dugout to the mound.
How do you compare a bad contract for a pitcher to a bad contract for a hitter?
More than just veteran presence, though.
And here’s guessing that there are more than a few teams who’d love to have JHey at $9M coming off the year he just had AND given how flexible he allows a team to be with a lineup….
Better than anything the Yankees have right now sans Judge if the season started tomorrow. Heyward is only 34 and plays good defense. If Judge had stayed healthy, they would’ve been a better team with Judge in CF and Heyward in RF rather than playing IKF. It’s a one-year deal so good signing for the Dodgers.
If only Judge was in CF the game he ran through the wall in LA. He can handle CF fine. They’re actually minimizing his skills by having him play the short RF. They should commit to him in CF next year until Dominguez returns, and frankly, Dominguez even after he returns will take time throwing. He may not be fully ready for CF until 2025. It’ll be easier to find corner OFers for 2024. Play Judge in center.
He just provided them quite a bit in his role last year.
$9M for a fourth OF is steep
Arguably the best fourth OF in baseball.
Not really if you look at last three years. Last year makes it look better than its likely to be for a 34 year old (unless he’s getting some artificial help).
“Not really”
Hayward wasn’t a 4th OFer for the Cubs. So you can’t look at his 2021 (faced LH pitching regularly) and 2022 he was injured. So he really was the best 4th OFer in 2023.
So he wasnt a fourth OF when he should have been – that doesnt justify his lousy production. Has he embraced this role? Maybe so
He had one good year, lets not get too carried away. There are others who are better who are starting for teams that would be the fourth OF on the dodgers.
“
Within Haywards limits (not batting against lefties) it seems Hayward DOES have something left in the tank.
This likely puts an end to a Trayce Thompson reunion in LA. lol
2023 = 720k
2024 = 9 million
Good thing he stuck with it huh?
Cubs also paid him $21.3MM in ’23.
Yeah please don’t remind me. He did more for the Cubs then Ellsbury ever did for the Yankees though.
He made 20 million + in 2023. The Cubs paid him to play for the Dodgers.
I thought it was kind of silly for the Cubs to DFA Heyward on his walk year. I had a feeling he would regain his stroke “magically”.
Even with his resurgent year, he was a 2 WAR player. He’s a role player and pretty much always has been for the Cubs. They unfortunately paid him to be Bryce Harper.
As I noted on the Longoria post the other day, fans are always retiring players once they’re past peak, while the players see potentially millions more to come. The players are right. If the desire is still there, make them rip the uniform off.
Agreed LD, I’d be the type to stick around and stick around. Once the jersey finally comes off, decades of your life and goals end. NO not your life…just the one you dreamed of as a 6yr old and got to live… Moving on has gotta be hard for a lot of these guys….
As a genX, looking at a guy like Steve Carlton (his verbal lunacy aside), if you are able, throw until the end….
I agree completely. If you still enjoy playing, someone will hire you where being on the team is not a nightmare, and you can make it work with your family life, sure, go for it. I feel sorry for guys who stick around because their whole identity is being a ballplayer, even if it means ruining their home-life or playing in terrible conditions (a nightmare clubhouse, a manager they hate, a city they hate living or playing in, etc.).
Personally, they would have to rip the uniform off me or not give me another one if I was a big leaguer.
Who from the Dodger’s front office do you think is going to seal the contract with the traditional kiss?
Heyward kinda looks like Isiah Thomas… so Magic Johnson makes sense!
Team first player. Veteran. They picked their spots when to play him and it worked out well last season. I expect his numbers fall off significantly in yr 2.
I’m finally on the board for the FA prediction contest
Smart. Think everyone knew they’d bring him back but I’m glad they got it done quickly. I still would like to see them trade for or sign another OF especially since Betts most likely is going to spend most of his time at 2nd base but I’m glad they brought back Heyward on a cheap 1 year deal.
Bring out that free agent leaderboard 2/2 today with gray and heyward
That’s a lot of bread for a guy with a questionable track record.
Something about that extra motivation in a walk year. Heyward was trending towards a 2 for 5 defensive replacement deal.
On a one-year deal, it’s a walk year again! Extra-extra motivation. On a never ending series of one-year deals, you’d have yourself a baseball Rube Goldberg machine of endlessly extra-motivated walk years.
Probably so, but it’s just a one year flyer. Plus it’s the Dodgers who have beaucoup bucks!
It’s Freddie’s best friend. Did anybody really think he’d leave LA with Freeman there? Anybody that saw how Heyward and Outman got along would just know too.
I don’t understand why the Dodger’s are going to pay a platoon player 9 million. Give me Travis Jankowski at a mil and half…
Well, Jankowski does have that great lettuce as well…..
He’s the strong side of the platoon. If he were a righty, then I’d agree with you.
You missed the point… 9 million dollars for a part time player is spending stupid money. There are much cheaper options available on both sides of the split, that are just as productive.
.
Heyward had his best season since 2015 so pretty good on him to stick with the team that revived his bat.
Ohh wow Ohtani to Texas 11 years $555 million.
You mean Blue Jays
Who also makes more sense for him than the Angels, because even though they are a streaky team, they are capable of winning more games than they lose, unlike the Angels, who are complete dog water and had very little talent outside of Trout, who’s made of glass and Ohtani.
Ohtani is going to get a billion dollars over 15 years. You can put it on the board yessssssssssss.
It’s noteworthy to observe the player’s career batting average, which stood at .258, but in 2023, he notably elevated it to .269. Additionally, his career weighted on-base average (wOBA) of .316 was surpassed with an impressive .348 during the same period. Interestingly, despite these accomplishments, the Chicago Cubs faced challenges in harnessing his potential throughout his tenure with the team. It’s worth considering that conventional batting average and wOBA metrics often exhibit a stronger correlation to future performance compared to advanced statistics such as expected batting average (xBA) and expected wOBA (xWOBA) generated by statcast technology.
community.fangraphs.com/properly-diving-into-expec…
Good signing. Was very valuable last year. Slight overpay but maybe necessary to get him on only a one year deal.
If (big if) Dodgers sign Ohtani…against RHP, you’re lining up Freeman, Ohtani, Muncy, Heyward, Outman and possibly Lux from the left side. Plus Betts who can hit it all. And maybe even Busch.
But you will need another RH bat for sure – be it a trade for Adames (unlikely). I’d like to see Duvall – although arguably duplicative of Taylor. And if no Ohtani – JD.
“slight overpay”
Based on what metric? No long term commitment, if he produces 1 WAR in 2024, he is at/around FA rate. You think he couldve been signed for less?
Duvall is not very much like Taylor. Taylor is an excellent defensive player who can play all over the field with an average bat.
Duvall is an above average power bat who can only play the outfield with not too great defense.
Beyond them being both right handed bats who play outfield (Taylor also infield), there is not much alike about them.
Personally I would love to get Kike back to play everywhere and get rid of rojas.
Duvall is a very good defensive OF. Can even play CF. But I’d take Kike back too!
Duvall may have used to be a good defensive outfielder, but not anymore. In my opinion he should not be playing center field for any team. His range is in the 20th percentile and was worth -3 OAA in 2023. Also his sprint speed is below the 20th percentile for center fielders.
Seems a little steep for Heyward but for the Dodgers I suppose it’s a decent deal.
Hopefully the Dodgers can trade Chris Taylor and his bloated contract. They need payroll flexibility to have a chance at signing Ohtani or Yamamoto.
They won’t be able to unload that without attaching prospects, and that isn’t Friedman’s MO
Dodgers current payroll for 2024 is around 112 million. That leaves over a hundred million left. They could sign Ohtani and Yamamoto and still comfortably have room to sign several other guys. And if they are willing to go over the lux tax, they can sign even more guys. Point being they don’t have to get rid of a team leader and still very productive player in Taylor to get desired free agents.
Friedman assembles teams. Preller assembles talent. Dodgers > Padres
Well, Preller’s talent eliminated Friedman’s team in 2022… so… there’s that.
@no soup
And what about…(checks notes)…every other year?
So…there are ALL OF THOSE too.
Every other year someone sends the Dodger’s home. So there are all of those too.
Friedman’s approach is not exclusively superior – that’s my point.
@comments
Your name fits. There was nothing in the article about the Padres and your comment means you are worried about the Padres. You should be.
Looks like Dodgers are just running it back…low energy…yawn.
Ohtani:BlueJays
Snell:Mariners
Yamamoto:Giants
Bellinger:Cubs
Dodgers:wha-happen?
“Thank goodness” — the GMs of every other team in MLB besides the Dodgers.
Well that seemed inevitable, a lot more so than some of the other predictions that will cost real money.
He’s going to his .186 now. Mark my words.
He’s not going back to .186 now. Mark my words. He may not sustain an .800+ OPS but he definitely will not be hitting .186, or anywhere close to that.
My guess would be somewhere in the .250 avg .750 ops. Still a valuable veteran player worth spending $ on.
Only if he went back to the Cubs
Or if he went to the Yankees, because while this may just be a joke and it probably is, it seems like that the Baseball Gods, if there were such a thing don’t allow non-Judge outfielders be consistent high performers. Well, at least not usually, anyway.
Fair deal.
Only MLBTR comment section would say 1 year for less than $10 is an overpay
Heyward is at 174 career home runs, I hope he plays long enough to reach 200.
If he hits similarly to how he did in 2023, he could get there in 2025.
I’m not surprised they brought him back, I’m surprised he got 9M. Good on him.
James – I got one right, finally. So, like you I thought he would be back but a little high. All of those claiming it is fair value based on 2023, I’ll just ask, aren’t the odds higher that he coughs up a Cubs year as opposed to another 2023?
We won’t know for 10 months but seems like an overpay today for me. They got fair value for 23 so even a Mid-year DFA will average out well, so there is that.
I was shocked when he got his 8 year/$184M deal. He was never really productive enough to justify it. The hype was astoundingly over blown. And he promptly underwhelmed on that deal. I do find it funny, though, that a guy who was as overpaid as he was, managed to chug along at a consistent level of production throughout that deal and its resulted in him getting a very fair, market rate salary to continue playing after the overpay.
Good for Heyward.
Thanks Cubs!
It’s tough, though. I think he is a prime example of when someone’s defensive WAR is overrated. A lot of primarily defensive value players do get very lucrative deals in the $15M-$23M AAV range, but not for as many years as he got at that AAV. They tend to be for about 4-5 years, maybe 6 years.
I’m thinking of guys like Rafael Furcal and Mark Ellis- guys who were touted as potentially getting like $18M-$25M a year for their elite defense and they both wound up signing for significantly less- probably because they knew the reality of defensive WAR.
It’s the same reason some guy who can swat 40 HR’s a season aren’t really worth more than $4M-$13M a year or so and don’t generate much WAR.
I just think offensive WAR, defensive WAR and overall WAR should be calculated very differently.
Defensive WAR should be worth like $2M a piece, offensive WAR should be worth like $5M a piece and overall war (someone who can do it both equally) should be the one worth like $8.5M a piece.
The difference between a Heyward or a Furcal (primarily defensive value), an Ortiz or a Stanton (offensive value) and an Arenado or a in-his-rime A-Rod or an in his prime Mookie Betts, etc. (pretty equally offensive and defensive value)
Heyward was like 80% defensive WAR and 20% offensive WAR.
His offense was and is worth maybe $5M a year, his defense at his peak was absolutely worth like $18M a year, hence why he got a contract that averaged $23M a season, but they really should have considered how quickly defense can drop off.
So his 6.5 WAR season was more like 5.2 defensive WAR ($10.4M value in this context) and 1.3 offensive WAR ($6.5M value in this context) for an overall WAR value of $16.9M- round that up to $17M. But then, you average those out and say that on average even in his prime, he was really worth just above 5.2 WAR, 4 of which was defensive and 1.2 of which was offensive.
4 Defensive WAR would = $8M and 1.2 offensive WAR would = $6M…. for a total value of $14M.
So, given how his career and contract have played out, even before his big free agent deal, I always figured he was worth closer to like 10 years/$150M. On that kind of deal he would have been basically fair value, even for his down years- at least he wouldn’t have been an egregious overpay.
In truth, he was worth about $9.45M per season across the duration of that deal, including his ‘bounce back’ year with the Dodgers.
I figure you give the guy some bonus money for his monster WAR seasons of 5.5 and 6.5 etc so if it should have been like 8 years/$75.6M you give him an extra $64.4M, spread across 8 seasons, to account for the extra production earlier on, to acknowledge it. But even that is still “only” $140M, $44M less than what his deal wound up being. And basically fair value.
No matter how you slice it, they overpaid.
That said, I get how his agent and him could argue “you’re signing a guy who just put up 6.5 WAR and he’s young for a free agent.” so he got the deal he got. Heck, if they had paid him for his 6.5 WAR output, his agent and him could argue that contract should have easily been 8 years/$340M, even going by old WAR value standards, so $184M might have been considered a relative bargain at the time.
Whoops.
This guy’s been crapped on for nearly a decade. Glad to see him come back from the dead and hope he can enjoy a little more of his second wind.
Good for Him. He just like it there. Seems like he’s found a home. And he’s made over 200 mil already. Nice.
As a lifelong Dodger fan, I like the signing. It’s only for one year and Heyward was pretty good last year.
Nice, I think I picked him to come back to LA for the FA contest, 1 out of 50 ain’t too bad! 2% success rate, let’s go! He also seemed to be a good fit, so good for him to be back on a contender.
Not sure how I feel about this, but I’m also not a Dodgers fan. He does seem fairly expensive but he did have a solid season.
“Heyward, that’s a horse apple..”
Even if he reverts to his career norms of a 102 OPS+, his defense will mean he is a quality platoon option in the OF. I think this is a good signing for the Dodgers.
Shocker! The buy-everyone Dodgers got this guy to play hard for once and have a career year and Heyward knows he’d be absolutely nothing without all that superstar protection in the lineup. But of course this won’t stop the Dodgers from continuing to throw money at stars and I’m sure Ohtani is next.
The buy-everyone Dodgers? I’d like to see you prove that one with, you know, facts.
Freeman. Betts (trade, but then a massive extension only LA could afford). Heyward. JD. Kershaw every single time he’s a free agent. Kimbrel. Taylor. Muncy. Treinen. And then that dude Trevor Bauer who was such a great guy. Back in the “day” it was Greinke and Hanley and Manny. All for a terrible city and fan base.
Freeman, Betts, Kershaw and Bauer are the only names on your list who made $20 mil or more. Then, you proceed to add a bunch of names who make a lot less. Guess most teams buy everyone?
Thank you. Turned out to be a total troll as suspected.
Oh sorry forgot Trea Turner and Max Scherzer. Your team is “in the mix” for every big name player out there (not just Ohtani, but Snell and Burnes for example). What I don’t understand is, your team actually drafts well, why do they need to try and pick up every superstar they can? The city sucks, the fans don’t really care (at least the ones that go to games) but ownership is beyond loaded and they always have the resources to win. MLB is extremely imbalanced economically. And Freeman shouldn’t be a Dodger his agent lied to get him there so congrats on that.
I don’t think some posters are seeing Heyward in the right light. Yes, $9M does feel a tad heavy for a platoon but that’s just to simplistic.
How do you get a player with valuable assets who might see himself as a starter to except a lesser role which actually enhances his value? Yes I’m sure he can see his stats just like we can but when you are the player himself you might see those stats differently. He may think if I just tweek my stance this way or hold the bat that way I will get the barrell in the zone longer or what not. If anyone has a performance based job with an analytical mind, you will understand that and might even see how it could lead you to constant tinkering but also lead you to some bad and good outcomes.
Instead, you tell that player we KNOW you do THESE things well so we will pay you to just do these things such as only bat against RHP. We’ll even pay you better than most who do only those things. The other thing you give the player to convince them to except this limited roll is by being a consistently winning club culture that has a shot at the world series year after year.
The Dodgers may have signed a paycheck a bit to large for what Heyward offers but this also significantly strengthens the Dodgers bench. Not just being able to effectively bat against RHP but having a strong defensive substitute.
Sometimes you have to pay a little more to have nice things.
@SalaryCapMyth Well said. 1/$9m isn’t remotely excessive for a 2 rWAR player, an above average defender who can play the entire OF, with significant power and a perfectly respectable OBP.
Granted he’s a strong side platoon bat, but he’s not Luis Guillorme against the other side. You can use him in CF against a LHP without embarrassment, and we have these things called PHer’s as necessary.
Even if Heyward turns into a 1 WAR player in 2024 and looks to be on his way out of the league, he’s worth the signing to this Dodgers team.
I’m not sure where so many fans get the idea they know what players are “worth” — or really why they even care about how much they are paid. The part we should really care about is the opportunity cost. The active roster is a finite number, so every signing a team makes is also a signing not made. I’m not a Heyward hater by any means, but I do wonder if a roster designed around platoons is ideal, and that’s the approach being taken by signing him.
No team, not even the Mets or Yankees, has an unlimited budget. So how much an individual player gets paid impacts how much can or will be paid for other players. So it should matter to fans.
It should only matter to fans who actually know how much a team is able to spend or plans to spend in any given season, which adds up to approximately no fans at all. So fans trying to figure out the impact of one signing on another is a pointless exercise because they will just be guessing.
Ohtani and Yamamoto would be fine off-season for the Dodgers.
Heyward $200 million in career earnings, 1 all star team which came in his rookie year.
40.7 lifetime rWAR. I’d rather have actual production over popularity contests.
Fangraphs estimates 1 WAR to be worth about $8 million in free agency, but some analysts believe the number is closer to $9 million to $10 million.
Good signing by the Dodgers.
If you use “and” to begin a sentence, it should NOT have a comma after it.
Great signing that isn’t getting enough attention really. How much should an .813 OPS be on the open market? League average was .734.. Add in plus defense, leadership, and the fact that it is only a one year deal and it’s gold. They could trade him at the deadline if he continues to be solid if they like. Great deal. Other teams will overpay for similar offensive/defensive production.