Every year, MLB’s non-tender deadline sees club’s allow players under team control to head for the open market early, whether it be due to an increasing price tag in arbitration or a need for additional space on the club’s 40-man roster. The 2023 campaign saw the likes of Cody Bellinger and Jeimer Candelario go on to have strong seasons after being non-tendered the offseason prior, and yesterday we discussed five hitters who were let go by their team’s prior to last week’s non-tender deadline.
While the best pieces among last offseason’s crop of non-tenders were both position players, recent history has offered a handful of arms who went on to provide significant value to teams after being non-tendered earlier in their career, with Kevin Gausman and Taijuan Walker standing as two of the more recent examples. The pair eventually went on to sign multi-year pacts worth $110MM and $72MM, respectively, though it’s anyone’s guess if any of members of this year’s group of non-tendered hurlers will manage to reach those same heights.
This year’s crop of arms won’t benefit from an otherwise weak free agent class the way this year’s hitters will, as the class of free agent starters is deep in potential options, ranging from top-of-the-line aces like Yoshinobu Yamamoto to interesting bounceback candidates like Jack Flaherty and Frankie Montas. Even so, clubs can never have enough starting pitching depth, and each of these arms could at least in theory provide a club with valuable innings in the future if given the chance to do so. Without further ado, let’s take a look at five starters who hit free agency following last week’s non-tender deadline and could be worth keeping an eye on throughout the offseason. Players are listed in alphabetical order, with their age for the 2024 season in parentheses.
Kolby Allard (26)
Not too long ago, Allard was among the game’s most highly-touted prospects. After being selected fourteenth overall by the Braves in the 2015 draft, Allard was a consensus top-50 prospect in the sport by the time he reached Double-A in 2017. After cruising through that campaign with a 3.18 ERA across 150 innings of work at just 19 years old, Allard got his first taste of big league action with Atlanta in 2018, though his stint in the majors lasted just eight innings. After being traded to the Rangers in 2019, Allard spent parts of three seasons swinging in and out of the Rangers rotation, with a 5.70 ERA and 4.96 FIP in 203 2/3 innings of work.
A failed stint in the bullpen in 2022 led the Rangers to deal Allard back to the Braves in exchange for Jake Odorizzi. Allard missed nearly the entire 2023 campaign with oblique and shoulder issues, leading the Braves to non-tender the lefty. While Allard has struggled to establish himself at the big league level, he’ll pitch next season at just 26 years old and advanced metrics such as xFIP (4.57) and SIERA (4.31) have seen his performance as roughly league average since the start of the 2021 campaign, lending credence to the hope that the lefty could still prove to be a solid back-end starter one day.
Yonny Chirinos (30)
Chirinos began his big league career back in 2018 as a member of the Rays, and was a quality arm for the club in a variety of roles from 2018-20. In those three seasons, the right-hander posted a 3.65 ERA (117 ERA+) and 4.17 FIP while appearing in 47 games (28 starts) and pitching a total of 234 1/3 innings. Unfortunately, Chirinos underwent Tommy John surgery in August of 2020 and didn’t return to the mound until late in the 2022 campaign.
Chirinos struggled in his first full season back from surgery in 2023. Though he posted a decent 4.02 ERA in 62 2/3 innings of work as a swingman for the Rays, his peripherals (including a 5.49 FIP and an 11.8% strikeout rate) indicated his performance had slipped considerably. That led Tampa to part ways with Chirinos, who was ultimately claimed off waivers by the Braves. Chirinos’s results took a turn for the worse in Atlanta, as he was blown up for a 9.27 ERA in 22 1/3 innings of work before being placed on the injured list with elbow inflammation. While Chirinos struggled through his first full season back from Tommy John this year, it’s easy to see the right-hander becoming a valuable, versatile depth piece for a contending club again in 2024 if he manages to get healthy.
Dakota Hudson (29)
A first-round selection by the Cardinals in the 2016 draft, Hudson was a quick riser who made his big league debut with the club back in 2018. The groundballer significantly outperformed his peripheral stats early in his career to perform at a mid-rotation level for the Cardinals, with a sterling 3.17 ERA in 241 innings of work 2018-20 despite a 4.74 FIP. Unfortunately, Tommy John surgery cost Hudson almost all of the 2021 season, and upon returning to the Cardinals’ rotation in 2022 his results diminished significantly. In 221 frames since the start of the 2022 campaign, Hudson has posted a 4.64 ERA (88 ERA+) and nearly matching 4.60 FIP as his strikeout rate has dipped to just 13% against a 10% walk rate. That led the Cardinals to non-tender Hudson even in spite of their extreme need for rotation depth headed into 2024.
Brutal as the past two seasons have been for Hudson, it’s worth noting that he still generates grounders at a elite clip; among pitchers with at least 200 innings of work over the past two years, Hudson’s 52.5% groundball rate ranks ninth, sandwiched between Sandy Alcantara and Ranger Suarez. Though the Cardinals were unable to trade Hudson before last week’s non-tender deadline, it’s certainly feasible that a team in need of starting depth could look to take a flier on Hudson’s groundball abilities in hopes they can return him to the form he flashed earlier in his career.
Spencer Turnbull (31)
After being drafted by the Tigers in the second round of the 2014 draft, Turnbull eventually reached the majors for a brief cup of coffee in 2018 before receiving a regular spot in the club’s starting rotation during the 2019 campaign. That rookie campaign saw Turnbull post a 4.61 ERA that was slightly better than league average (103 ERA+) in 148 1/3 innings of work, though his 3.99 FIP hinted at another gear to his performance. After taking a small step forward during the shortened 2020 season (3.97 ERA, 3.49 FIP in 11 starts), Turnbull appeared to put it all together in the 2021 campaign with a 2.88 ERA and 2.97 FIP before his season was cut short after just nine starts by Tommy John surgery.
Turnbull returned in early 2023 and appeared poised to step back into the club’s rotation, but a mix of injuries, under-performance, and a dispute between Turnbull and Detroit brass over service time led to the sides parting ways this offseason with Turnbull having posted a 7.26 ERA over seven starts at the big league level. Despite those brutal numbers, Turnbull is nonetheless among the more interesting bounceback candidates on the open market this offseason given his recent health struggles and the incredible upside he flashed during the 2021 campaign.
Brandon Woodruff (31)
This list wouldn’t be complete without a mention of Woodruff, who has emerged as one of the game’s best starters in recent years. Since his first season as a regular member of the Brewers’ rotation in 2019, Woodruff has dominated to the tune of a 2.93 ERA and 3.10 FIP in 103 starts while collecting two All Star appearances and a fifth-place finish in NL Cy Young award voting back in 2021. Woodruff was dominant as ever in 2023, with a 2.28 ERA and a 29.2% strikeout rate this season. Unfortunately, he was dogged by injuries throughout the season and limited to just eleven starts before undergoing shoulder surgery last month.
Unlike the other arms on this list, there are zero questions about Woodruff’s ability, as he’s a consensus front-of-the-rotation arm in terms of pure talent. Despite that, the Brewers made the difficult decision to non-tender him last week due to questions surrounding his availability for the 2024 campaign. It’s unclear if Woodruff will be able to return to the mound at all in 2024 following his surgery, though the right-hander expressed optimism earlier this offseason that he would be able to pitch again sometime next summer. Still, that uncertainty led the Brewers to part ways with the right-hander rather than tender him a contract that MLBTR’s Matt Swartz projected to be worth $11.6MM, a hefty sum for a small-market club to commit to a pitcher who might not be available next season. Though Woodruff’s timetable for return is uncertain, he has the potential to be among the most impactful pitchers in the entire free agent class based on his track record over the past several seasons. That combination of risk and tantalizing upside leave Woodruff as one of the most interesting free agents not only on this list but in the offseason’s entire class.
What happened to Jake Odorizzi? He didn’t pitch last year.
He wasn’t non-tendered, he’s a free agent.
I didn’t say he was non-tendered. He was mentioned in the article for having been traded for Allard.
Oh. I read it as relating to the article, not why he was out. It was surgery on his throwing shoulder.
I thought he was injured and didn’t play all year.
Main message: A solid return from Tommy John is NOT guaranteed.
Throwing a baseball again period isn’t a guarantee after TJ.
It’s pretty much guaranteed these days
Woodruff is having shoulder capsule surgery. It’s more difficult to come back from but not impossible.
Any pitcher staying healthy for any length of time is NOT guaranteed.
Release Dakota Hudson then sign two veterans for $20 mil for similar production lol
Pretty silly. I think Gibson and Lynn are both better but not 22 million dollars better.
Hudson would make a good 5th starter for someone, especially a team with a prospect projected to take over mid season if Hudson fails.
Agreed. In fact, take any three of these guys and add them to the Pirates—who currently have a 1 starter staff—and adopt the same idea. Three guys coming off TJ surgery should be back by mid season, a number of strong prospects at AAA.
Sounds like a no-brainer
Yeah I was going to say the whole list minus Woodruff seem like good pickups for the Pirates
@ohyeadam “Similar production” when you might get 360 innings from Lynn and Gibson in 2024, while Hudson’s given you 100 innings fewer, total, over the last FOUR seasons combined?
Please direct me to your newsletter. Thanks,
Turnbull will be a steal. He was a solid pitcher before his injury that led to TJ. He just needed time to get healthy.
If the Mets are punting 2024, and they should, they should sign all 5 to platform deals.
At the least they’d be somewhat interesting again.
Yamamoto has the potential to be an ace but until he toes the rubber in the MLB and proves his worth, he shouldn’t be just assumed to be one…
Totally agree! Teams that want to sign him should wait until they see him pitch successfully in MLB for awhile and THEN sign him!
If a team waits until Yamamoto pitches in the majors before signing him, they’ll be waiting several years until his first contract is over.
No, this really is not true anymore. MLB has a ton of experience with NPB players now, and they are far more sure things than even AAA guys (NPB is somewhere between AAA and MLB, and gaining fast, in quality). Yamamoto is one of the best pitchers ever produced by NPB. It would be a HUGE surprise if he were not at least a mid-rotation guy in MLB, and a mild surprise if not an ace. Of course, pitchers are pitchers…
He’s an ace.
It’s extremely unlikely that he doesn’t translate to MLB. Senga’s a good, parallel comp. Not all that close to the results of YY in JPN and had the NL’s 2nd best ERA even so.
Senga has proved his worth. Let Yamamoto do the same. That’s all I’m saying…
The Cubs should definitely take a chance on Woodruff. Adding that arm for a late season push and/or a playoff run, would be like making a major trade without giving anything up.
The same is true for 29 other teams.
They are all contenders? They all have the money to take a flyer? Come on man.
OK. Maybe 20 other teams.
Every team has the money if they don’t want to be cheap.
That have $30 million available to spend over the next two years
@norcalblue: At least 20 teams.
There’s a pretty low chance Woodruff will throw at all in 2024 in the majors.
Agreed. $4 million to rehab under supervision of team doctors and trainers in ‘24, $26 million in ‘25, with a team option.
There is a pretty low chance Woodruff ever even throws another major league pitch, actually, much less in 2024.
That is absolutely not true.
Actually, according to a major study of shoulder surgeries on professional pitchers done by the National Institutes of Health, there’s about a 33% probability of that being true.
When was the last major league pitcher to have surgery and never come back? I can’t think of one.
I can see minor league guys throwing in the towel.
Matt Harvey, Jon Matlack, Johan Santana, and Stephen Strasburg just off the top of my head, to name just a few of many.
No mention of Turnbull’s no hitter?
Is writing “interest” where “interesting” makes more sense in context twice in the same article just a repeated error, or is it a regionalism I’ve never heard before?
In my neck of the woods, they pronounce it “inter-sting” and lots of things in the world are “inter-sting” if you have never left your home county in forty years, much less your family compound.
I’d say we must live in the same region, except here in South Carolina it’s the first e that’s left out. And nice Beefheart user image.
Cards should sign Woodruff. They had the same scenario with Chris Carpenter and we all remember how great that turned out.
So should maybe 20 other teams.
Stop ruining our dreams Blue Baron.
@DonOsbourne: But not everyone is a Cardinals fan. Lots of us follow other teams.
Not exactly, Carpenter was more of a back end of the rotation type (98 ERA+) with Toronto at the time the Cardinals signed him and never had results like Woodruff (137 ERA+)
I assume the “never” you’re referring to was before Carpenter was a Cardinal because he had an ERA+ of 140 with St. Louis from 2004 to 2010.
The recovery time for woodruff’s injury is as long if not longer than for TJS. Moreover, the performance record of SPs undergoing such surgery is not as good as with TJS. The numbers are, of course, much smaller but I think it highly improbable that Woodruff pitches in ’24.
And maybe never, like Johan Santana and others.
Santana had anterior capsule surgery twice, After missing the 2011 season following the first surgery, he pitched well including the 135-pitch no-hitter on June 1.. After a couple of bad outings, he still pitched well in three starts later in June before being shelled in three starts Jul and two in August, separated by a DL stint.. Aft a second capsule surgery, he never pitch in the majors again. He’s one data point for this uncommon injury., and we don’t know if it was the 135-pitch outing, his overall 2012 workload, or the inevitable result of the not being able to fully recover from the first surgery.. And, we don’t know if Santana’s initial injury was more severe than Woodrufff’s.
White Sox ended up releasing John Danks after he had a similar surgery and could not throw above 80 after returning.
DBacks should sign Turnbull and give him a shot as a starter with Brett Strom as a great groomer of starters. This could be a great career opportunity for him..
BRENT Strom.
baseball-reference.com/players/s/strombr01.shtml
Blue, you get invited to a lot of parties?
Two this weekend. You?
Allard to the A’s. Makes so much sense, they are loaded with forgotten 1st rounders. Band of Brothers/Us against the world mentality
Woodruff is a 2 year deal with the hopes of him bouncing back and being able to contribute in ’25
Allard is a depth piece, so too is Chirinos.
Turnbull is the guy a bad team signs to eat up innings in hope of a decent first half with hopes of flipping him at the trade deadline
Hudson is the interesting one because we’ve seen how good he could be in his pre-Marmol Cardinals days
Do any of these pitchers have minor league options remaining. Hard to guarantee any a rotation spot but they could be valuable if eligible to go back and forth between AAA and the majors.
Allard and Turnbull each have one option year remaining (per Fangraphs), Hudson two.
Pass on all except for Woodruff. Maybe I’d take a flyer on Turnbull.
Do you like paying pitchers to not pitch?
Yes. It’s rare a team has all five starters stay healthy. Going to need arms from AAA at some point. I’m a Phillies fan and right now Nick Nelson would be in the rotation if someone got hurt in Spring Training. So yeah, I’d rather take a shot on Hudson than be forced to start Nick Nelson.
What’s the unhappiness with a 6th starter whose MLB FIP in 2022-23 was 3.23 behind an ERA of 4.62?
Control issues but great at HR suppression. 8.8 K/9. Surely in the upper half of 6th starters across MLB.
If I’m a team with good depth and can get a pitcher of woodruffs quality, 100% yes.
Brandon Woodruff
Even if he comes back and is part of what he once was, it’s still worth as he’s be a decent 4 or 5 guy but the reward is that he’s back to ace status. The last 3 years, his GBkwERA is sitting around 2.50.
Kolby Allard
Still young and his advanced metrics on GBkwERA show him declining to a 3.54 in 2023. I think there is potential there as a backend starter.
Spencer Turnbull
Potential is there but he’s not getting any younger. His limited numbers in 2023 had a GBkwERA of 4.38. Not amazing but still shows that based on what he can control and his GB rate, he’s servicable. Might just need a new team to start fresh with.
Dakota Hudson
Dakota could be a decent pitcher but he has control problems which is why he has such a high GB% in his career and ERA is high as well. If a team can help him find some control, he’ll be a decent pitcher, given that his GBkwERA for 2023 was 4.54.
Yonny Chirinos
Outside of the bullpen, he’s not really serviceable. Since he started in 2018, his GBkwERA has risen from 3.71 to 4.33. You can see from the BBs that he’s got some control issue. Same story with Hudson. If you can get his control back, he’d be a decent piece in the pen.
If the Rays or Braves couldn’t fix you you are simply terrible.