As the clear #2 position player available in this year’s free agent market, Cody Bellinger is a sensible fit for a handful of teams. The Yankees and Giants were the most common speculated suitors going into the offseason, and that buzz has continued in the first couple weeks.
Bellinger is on the Yankees’ radar as they look for one or two lefty-hitting outfielders. Meanwhile, San Francisco president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi has made clear the team is looking to upgrade its outfield defense, calling center field a priority. Each of Jon Heyman of the New York Post and Jesse Rogers of ESPN wrote yesterday that Bellinger is indeed on San Francisco’s radar.
While the links to both franchises are expected, it’s unclear how aggressively Bellinger’s incumbent team plans to pursue him. Heyman lists the Cubs alongside the Yankees and Giants as early favorites to land the two-time All-Star, while Rogers is more pessimistic, writing that the Cubs are unlikely to engage in a bidding war for the 28-year-old outfielder. Rogers unsurprisingly suggests that Chicago will be involved in the Shohei Ohtani pursuit, noting that some believe the Cubs are likelier to land the two-way star than they are to re-sign Bellinger. Ohtani is obviously the more desirable player, but is also likely to sign for at least double (quite likely more) the amount of guaranteed money.
At the same time, it’d be logical in some sense for the Cubs to allow Bellinger to move on. Top prospect Pete Crow-Armstrong is viewed as the organization’s center fielder of the future, and he reached the majors late in 2023 after hitting .283/.365/.511 between the top two minor league levels. Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki are on multi-year commitments in the corner outfield. While Bellinger can play first base, much of his value is tied to his ability to play strong defense at the outfield’s most demanding position.
The left-handed hitter had a strong season at Wrigley Field. After his dismal 2021-22 numbers led to a non-tender with the Dodgers, Bellinger inked a $17.5MM guarantee with the Cubs. He hit .307/.356/.525 with 26 home runs and 20 stolen bases through 556 trips to the plate. Bellinger cut his strikeouts to a personal-low 15.6% clip, although his batted ball metrics figure to give some teams pause. His 31.4% hard contact percentage only ranked in the 10th percentile among qualified hitters.
Bellinger rejected a qualifying offer after declining his end of a mutual option for 2024. Were the Cubs to let him walk, they’d land a compensatory pick between Competitive Balance Round B and the third round (roughly 75th overall). A signing team would have to forfeit draft and potentially international bonus space to add him.
Hoping for a great career for this kid moving forward. He has the tools. I just grimace a little when thinking about the size of a contract he’s going to get with only one good year in front of two disastrous seasons.
I’m hoping he continues his success as well. He’s at least had more good years than bad ones. One being an MVP.
I think some team is going to give him a contract they regret, sooner rather than later.
“Tis an offseason with plenty of supposed big name guys set to make big bucks with shaky pasts. bellinger, Snell Soler. Wouldn’t be shocking to see 2 of those 3 sign big deals and wind up as disasters.
Doesn’t that happen with all long-term contracts? But, if you want the player bad enough, you know you won’t be getting the same production at the end of the contract as you hope to get from the beginning and middle of the deal. You either sign him, or he goes elsewhere.
Not all of them start out bad like Rodon last season. You’re right very few are pretty at the end.
Bellinger may provide a solid but unspectacular return. Has a decent floor with good defense.
Decent floor?? The previous 2 years are a very low floor!
That sums it up very nicely. I, too, would be hesitant to give out a long-term deal to Belli. Ideally, you’d like to see one more good season before making that commitment. But someone js going to give him at least a 7-year deal, maybe longer (for luxury tax reasons).
he’s not going to get a contract of the sort that Boras’ is busy bullspitting about
no one is singing Bellinger to a 12 year deal
nor is anyone going to commit to paying him in excess of $200M
Agreed. I am wondering how he is going to age as well. LF is definitely in his future and if his numbers stay that strong he will still be extremely valuable there. But will fans be happy of he turns into Giancarlo Stanton in 4-5 years. I don’t know. Lots of question marks around this kid. He is going to want way more than 4-5 years which is exactly where I would be comfortable. Glad it’s not my money. I hope the Yankees stay away. I doubt it though. After finally adjusting to modern baseball team construction back in 2016-2018 they decided 2 trips to the ALCS just wasn’t good enough. It’s time to bring back old unreliable championship buying. It really sucks they have to be taught this lesson twice and of course the fans pay for it.
The stove is getting warm folks.
Someone sat down with him and gave him the drugs talk. Idiot almost blew it all.
Crazy man say what?
… what?
I would rather see the Cubs go hard after Yamamoto and top relievers rather than just one Ohtani.
Cubs needs offense now, and Ohtani should be pitching again in 2025. I also sense that if the Cubs are fortunate enough to land Ohtani, that they don’t stop there.
Why?
Everything I’ve read says Ohtani wants to win some Championships. For the Cubs to convince Ohtani he can do that with them, they need more and better players.
Don’t think living and working in Chicago is going to appeal to Yamamoto at all…..its most probably West Coast for its proximity to Japan…..middle America…don’t think so…besides, he’d have to immediately purchase a big weapon to defend both him and his family in Wild West Chicago……LOL
Except he cant carry in Chitcago bc socialists want their citizens living in fear…
You can carry in Chicago.You just need a FOID card
The flight difference is not all that drastic from Chicago and LA. Mocking Chicago’s crime as it relates to ANY West Coast city is ridiculous aside from San Diego.
You have never been to Chicago and it shows
He’s probably never been to LA, Seattle or San Francisco either. You want to talk about dumps! I was at the Ritz in San Francisco looking out the window watching all the junkies begging, camping on the sidewalks.
If the Cubs land Suzuki, they can get Yamamoto. There are plenty of nonstops to Japan out of O’hare.
The commute from the Gold Coast to Wrigley is about as safe as any big city can be. Plus, it’s not like he’ll ride the El to the Wrigley.
Cold Chicago springs are a far bigger detriment. Winter weather lasts a long time in Chicago.
Chicago is like all big cities – there are pockets of high crime areas; but it is a wonderful place to live, except for the winters.
“Wonderful place to live”..So your saying if you’re rich Chicago is nice, right?…Same for SF, LA & NY.
But you don’t have to be as rich to live a nice life in Chicago compared to SF, LA and NY.
Yamamoto will be rich wherever he lives. What will differentiate the quality of his life from place to place will mostly be relationships. And weather, to an extent.
Except Chicago isn’t in the top 30 most violent cities in America and hasn’t been for a long time. While most of the other 29 major league cities are. But whatever, facts don’t matter to the fox news crowd.
Yeah no
I just looked at multiple sources and they hover around the 9 spot. I don’t look at Fox News either.
I did find one that has Chicago at 33. That ranking was older.
Violent crime is up – way up in the neighborhoods around Wrigley. Check out CWBChicago.com
You need a concealed carry license in addition to a FOID card to carry. Unless you’re a migrant……
I think you will be disappointed the cubs get none of the above.
“Bellinger is on the Yankees’ radar“
EVERYBODY is on the Yankees’ radar. I’m on the Yankees’ radar, YOU’RE on the Yankees’ radar. We’re ALL on the Yankees’ radar!
They called me even though I haven’t played in 20 years.
I can pitch if Cashman is interested. I’ll bring my 55 MPH heater…doubt I’ll reach the plate, though.
No worries – part of the new rules they’re gonna move up the plate by a foot and pitch wiffleballs.
Dude, come out of the shadows and identify yourself, please.
I am coming off a church softball championship and have fresh legs for 40yo.
Bellinger’s hard hit numbers dropping are only because he didn’t whiff 180 times. Kyle Schwarber led the Phillies in Hard Hit %
I’m really wondering how 49 Homeruns and 100+ rbi by Schwarber can be worth less than 1 W.A.R. By W.A.R metrics Kyle Schwarber is worth significantly less than a role player like Houston’s Maricio Dubon.
Defense plays a pivotal role and Shwarbs defense really killed his WAR. Look at Yordans year and WAR. Should be much more. With the DH position that isn’t the best metric, more so traditional stats.
I’m not sure how well WAR works with extreme outliers. My guess is that it is because Schwarber’s average when he doesn’t hit a HR is .126. That means over the space of four games, he hits one HR and 2 singles. He is also slow and cannot field, but also takes a ton of walks.
Very tough guy to put a hard number on.
WAR is not the end all be all of stats. Despite the analysts saying otherwise
I’ve never heard any analyst claim WAR is the end all or be all. It is a value approximation useful mostly for comparing players.
WAR has some deficiencies, but it’s the best indicator on salary value. I think WAR undervalues the catcher’s defense for instance.
It may undervalue 1B a little bit too. I’d like to see a “scoop metric.” Any throw that hits the dirt first .. what % are scooped by the 1B, and what % aren’t.. Maybe even have to break it down to easy scoops and difficult scoops. Hard to believe this doesn’t exist already but I’ve never seen it.
Good point Joe.
BBREF breaks down WAR by offense and defense. Offense last season was 2.8, defense was negative 2.9.
It really is as simple as that for Schwarbs.
I also fail to understand the WAR algorithms.
That’s what Harold Baines said. Ahahaha!
It’s his -2.9 defensive WAR dragging down his total. If the Phil’s would stop playing him in the field it would look a lot better for him.
Bellinger’s metrics in CF last season aren’t exceptional, his metrics are 1B are. Are teams really expecting him to play CF long-term?
I bet he has a couple more years left as a viable centerfielder. I wouldn’t be shocked if he is a gold glove candidate at 1st or the corner outfield. He’s fun to watch.
Aside from that bizarre shoulder separation, many teams have openly said they see more athletic ability than 1B-exclusively implies so, maybe not CF all the time but several more years out there doesn’t seem unlikely
He got hurt playing CF last season. Originally diagnosed as day-to-day, he ended up missing about a month, then was bad for about two weeks after his return.
I’d be hesitant to count on him as an every day CF.
I can’t imagine this upcoming contract working out well for whatever team picks him up.
It should be noted that Bellinger’s lower hard contact rate was a result of adjusting his 2 strike swing last season.. His 2 strike BA was a very strong .270 ish and would seem to explain the overall softer contact rate.
Petriello at MLB.COM had a great break down on Bellinger earlier this week. Worth the time to search for it and read it, if you haven’t already.
That was a great article that tried to answer all the questions I had about how to project him and if that’s worth some of the wild contract predictions out there. Thanks for pointing it out.
Both FG and The Athletics analyzed his two-strike approach mid-season as well. His EV, barrel rate, and launch angle were all at career-lows. Giancarlo Stanton should give him a call.
Mostly fluff re: Giants. Zaidi test drives a lot of top notch free agents in the media. It gets tiring to see in the news that San Francisco has an “interest” in high priced players. Big hat, no cattle.
SF not attractive for LH power hitters.
Every time I say something like this the Farhan boot lickers come out on a witch hunt but after all these disappointing seasons I think we should all firmly be in “believe it when we see it” mode.
As much as I want Bellinger back it’s not going to happen and I’m sure the Cubs know what it would take and have decided to move on vs a ridiculously high bidding war
Conventional wisdom is that the longer Bellinger remains unsigned, the better chance the Cubs have.
The Jays have been linked to him multiple times, but, I hope they steer well clear with Bellinger. Committing the years and money to him that his agent wants with the risk involved with him would be a non-starter IMHO. Go full bore for Ohtani, give him an offer than he just can’t refuse. 12/575 with bonuses for performance that could take it to 600M.
Hahaha all that money to Ohtani
Is that even an offer he can’t refuse? I don’t even think there are financial terms he can’t refuse as I don’t think any one team can severely outbid another team by enough to make up for any other market considerations for him.
Reminds me a bit of Chris Davis entering free agency. Not quite the same as Bellinger contributes other skills, but you just can’t ignore when the player has had a number of disastrous seasons in the past
Davis was a lot more one-dimensional, with a lot more red flags. Granted, there are red flags with Bellinger, but no reason to think he’ll sink like a rock even if he can’t sustain hitting like he did last season.
But unlike Davis, I don’t really think Belli was using PEDs when he was having his MVP-caliber seasons. He did know what pitch was coming, however, since the Dodgers (like the Yanks, Red Sox & Astros) were definitely cheating with the video room. I won’t name the player I talked to, but he’s retired now and played with Belli in LA.
Exactly. He’s capable of putting together some good seasons because he is a major leaguer, but MVP Bellinger is no more.I wonder if the ban on shifts helped him?
I think it was universally-accepted that the Chris Davis, Eric Hosmer, and Ryan Howard contracts were bad before the ink dried. We’re not getting same sentiment about Bellinger from analyst; it’s mostly coming from the fans.
Let’s say Bellinger puts up 35 homers .260/.345/.510 as a baseline, how many years does he need to hit roughly those numbers before his big contract is not considered a bust?
I would say that if he can sustain that baseline for 5 years the contract will be worth it.
Given how often contracts flop I think we have become a bit jaded.
Who cares how much a team spends on Bellinger if he gets them that much closer in the post season stays healthy and plays good not great defense I think all teams should be in on him.
I agree with earlier post too, Bellinger was more controlling of the strike zone with 2 strikes, so he’s still young enough to learn and make strides, I like that aspect in a player.
My bottom line, Belli is worth the $.
People will praise the contract for however many years he is good. The second he struggles it will be called a horrible contract. You watch it will happen to Harper and every other one of these 10+ year guys. Fans have such recency bias it’s almost laughable.
No one with who doesn’t just hate life will ever say the Harper contract is/was horrible. He’s only getting $25MM a year. When that contract is expiring it will be considers mid level salary. He left a ton of money on the table. Plus the Phillies have already been to the WS and another NLCS with him. He should be worshiped forever by Philli fans for the discount and production he gave them.
I completely get that’s every persons thoughts right now. He’s been very good so far. Let him get to years 10-11-12-13 and then we will see if the narrative changes. He has 8 years left
San Francisco is not a dump. I can tell you San Francisco is cleaner and safer than Los Angeles and a lot of California cities. Go to Fresno or downtown Los Angeles that’s a dump. As far as Chicago or anywhere east coast/ mid west… has anyone considered maybe he likes cool weather? It’s real nice in San Francisco in summer time. Oh that’s for sho Ohtani not belly
I would love to see the Cardinals trade away all of their current OF group and sign Bellinger, T. Hernandez and Guerriel Jr. they can keep Walker and move him or Bellinger to 1B and trade Goldschmidt to.a contender. The pitching free agent market this off season is empty, they won’t get Nola, Snell or Yamamoto. Snell would be a mistake anyway. Next year’s group is abundant with aces, that’s where they should play. Goldschmidt and the outfielders traded off to help stock putrid farm system. In this scenario, wouldn’t be opposed to trading Walker for a young potential 1/2 starter as well. Bobby Miller, Painter, Gilbert, Keller, etc..
Dick Monfort’s latest and greatest bad contract?
Chicago would be a great place for Ohtani, because there’s far less pressure than in L.A. or NYC. Half the people at a Cubs game aren’t there for baseball and they’re used to seeing a mediocre product.
If Bellinger wants more than 7 years. I’m okay with the Cubs letting him walk.
Some team will overpay in both years and dollars for Bellinger. and regret it. Glad it won’t be the Dodgers.
I see the Yankees making a hard run for him. I’m sure he wouldn’t mind that RF porch if the money and years are right. With Judge most likely batting behind him, he’s got to be thinking about the numbers he could put up. For the Yankees, moving Judge to RF and out of CF permanently would be a blessing I suppose.
I am terrified of the deal he will get. I am terrified it will be the Yankees. They have such bad luck with guys who have a dream season or on/off seasons of productivity and injuries or just not being locked in- Ellsbury, Rodon, Stanton…. imagine adding another $22.5M or more per year over nearly or more than a decade with another aging player who will look big and shiny upon signing and within a season or two be some guy they’re trying to find a spot for to get some value out of the contract while they age and fall apart….
It is astounding how many super long term big money deals turn into that within 1-2 years- a guy signed for 8 or 10 or 12 years has their role reduced and their position changed within a year or two of the signing in order to mitigate their reduced productivity or the fact that they’re now log jamming roster space and a position that apparently needs filling despite their presence on the roster….
And I am terrified Bellinger will be that for the Yankees.
Belli going Yankees on 8 year deal and more than $25 million AAV.
With Stanton and very possibly Rodon and DJLM as dead weight, and with Judge among that group more and more often as a few years roll on, that last thing the Yankees should be doing is taking a $180m flyer and risk turning the $75m a year they’re probably flushing into $100m a year.
Instead, they should be willing to pay a premium for certainty, whatever it takes to add Soto and Yamamoto.