November 20: As expected, Yamamoto has been officially posted, as relayed by Joel Sherman of The New York Post. The posting window begins a 7 am Central on November 21 and goes until 4 pm Central on January 4.
November 17: Yoshinobu Yamamoto is one of the offseason’s most talked-about free agents, and he’ll finally be fully available to Major League teams in a few days’ time. ESPN’s Buster Olney reports (via X) that Yamamoto is “expected to be posted” this coming Monday, so his negotiation window to speak with MLB teams will officially begin on November 21.
It is widely expected that Yamamoto will shatter the record for the largest contract ever given to a player coming from Nippon Professional Baseball to the majors for the first time, with MLB Trade Rumors projecting a nine-year, $225MM deal for the right-hander. Because Yamamoto is only 25 years old, it is quite possible that he might seek an opt-out clause or two in his eventual contract, allowing him the chance to re-enter the market in a few years’ time in search of an even larger deal after he has established himself as a frontline Major League pitcher.
Yamamoto has been utterly dominant over his seven seasons with the Buffaloes, posting a 1.82 ERA over 897 innings. With a 26.43% strikeout rate and small walk (5.9%) and home run (1.03%) rates, Yamamoto’s numbers are pretty eye-popping across the board, leaving scouts and evaluators with little doubt that he’ll be at least a solid big league pitcher with a clear ceiling as a potential ace. Since Yamamoto is so young, there should be plenty of prime years left, and there is much less wear-and-tear on his arm than most other premium free agent pitchers in history, considering how it is very rare for players to be available to the open market at age 25.
Technically, Yamamoto is not a completely free agent yet, as per the rules of the MLB/NPB posting system. Come Tuesday, Yamamoto will have 45 days to negotiate with Major League teams, giving him until January 4 to sign a contract to come to North America. Yamamoto would return to the Buffaloes for the 2024 NPB season if no deal is reached within that 45-day window, yet with so much interest in his services, it certainly feels like he has pitched his last game in a Buffaloes uniform for the foreseeable future.
The Buffaloes are entitled to a posting fee once Yamamoto signs, so a Major League team will have to pay up some extra money beyond whatever they give to Yamamoto himself. The Buffaloes will receive 20% of the contract’s first $25MM in guaranteed money, 17.5% of the next $25MM, and then 15% on anything beyond the $50MM mark. Should Yamamoto land that projected $225MM deal, then, that would mean a $35.625MM posting fee to the Buffaloes — not a bad payday, yet a bittersweet one considering that the Osaka-based team is losing such a proven star.
The Phillies, Mets, Yankees, Blue Jays, Red Sox, Tigers, Cardinals, Cubs, Rangers, Diamondbacks, Giants, Padres, and Dodgers have all been linked to Yamamoto to varying degrees, whether it has been club officials or scouts on hand in Japan to see the righty pitch in person, or offseason reports indicating that Yamamoto is high on a team’s list of priorities. It seems entirely possible that Yamamoto’s list of suitors could be even longer, given the somewhat unique opportunity to sign an elite pitcher at such a young age.
Negotiations will begin in earnest Tuesday, with quite a bit of impact on the overall pitching market. Because Yamamoto’s free agency would come with a hard deadline, it is possible some of the other top arms on the market might wait until after he signs, to better gauge the field of remaining suitors. With so many teams in need of pitching, missing out on Yamamoto could make teams more eager (and thus more willing to spend big) to acquire one of the other pitchers left. Some reports have suggested that Shota Imanaga, his representatives, and NPB’s Yokohama DeNA Baystars might wait until after Yamamoto is off the market to go ahead and start Imanaga’s own posting window.
Cmon Dodgers! Pass on Ohtani and sign this guy along with Snell, Neris and Maton
Love Ohtani but if they continue to try to win championships without first class arms they’ll never be successful!
It’s funny how people want Yamamoto over Ohtani. That’s instantly to me.
It’s because Ohtani can’t pitch and may never be the same at pitching. No dh is worth 50m a year. So some people would rather spread the money around then risk it.
if he can’t pitch he becomes a very good outfielder
Yes but a very good hitting OFer is still not worth $50M/year. Ohtani is only worth that amount if he can both pitch and DH. And since the pitching side of things is a big question mark right now any team signing him is taking a big chance in doing so if they assume he’s going to pitch at a high level again.
If Ohtani never pitches again, he will not be a DH, he will be a LF or first baseman. So, still very marketable, as he will generate a great deal of revenue for the club that signs him. He is a top three hitter in baseball. Certainly worth more than Aaron Judge received as an OF with some history of injury issues in his background. Worst case scenario, you overpay slightly for a player who will play the field 7 or 8 seasons at an average to above average rate. Best case, you get a Top 5 hitter and Top 10 SP for much of that contract… Seems like a win-win deal.
You haven’t been paying attention. Otani will deliver. It’s his code.
Ohtani might cost beyond twice as much and might be twice as injury-prone.
Yamamoto, Bellinger and Go over Ohtani
Baseball is till otherwise a team sport WITH a cap unlike NFL there isnt a player who can daily change the course of a season. A pitcher can at best 20% of the time . A position player 11-15% these are simple maths . So placing 25% plus of that ‘capped’ salary on a player [even@Ohtani] is.a major risk especially on a 6 year plus deal. Fantasy ball or video games its a no brainer…reality with draft pick losses etc and luxury tax its more difficult to justify.
MLB doesn’t have a cap. They have a CBT threshold above which there are fines, but a team can spend as much as they want. In the NFL there is a hard cap.
It’s still a cap (soft one) which affects your payments , ability to draft (both D4 and International wise). An investment based on the CBT affects directly or indirectly that – even if less so a Dodgers than a Rays . Reality does kick in and has affected as we have seen how even the Yankees or Mets have “capped” themselves – just look at the trade deadline of the Mets.
Ohtani along with all the risks is a headache to manage as well. He’s so unique and amazing to watch but the most difficult player to manage. You can only pitch him once a week, which a lot of teams are going with 6 starters. He needs quite a bit of time off as a batter as well, because playing both ways takes a toll on his body. So far the way he’s been managed hasn’t worked to keep him healthy, and if you’re paying the guy 50 million he better be healthy. It’s just too big of risk. Fans don’t understand that because they aren’t the ones taking the risk.
Insanity even!
People get their Rocks hard over the idea of having a hitter/pitcher combo, which sounds nice except that he’s gotten seriously injured twice already and most likely will again. For $500MM Ill pass on Ohtani for dudes that can actually stay on the field and produce
How do you know Yamamoto can? Dude hasn’t thrown a single MLB pitch yet. Don’t get me wrong, I believe he’s the real deal based off what I’ve seen in Japan, but I know what Ohtani could do already.
Yeah Yamamoto MAY be great based on our experience with similar Japanese pitchers; Ohtani just won the AL MVP for the second consecutive year.
These things are not equal.
He proved he can in the WBC
I’m willing to bet Yamamoto will do just fine. I’m projecting a Kenta Maeda or better type of career. Kenta as we know ate some big innings in the 2020 World Series.
I know what Ohtani can do. hit. Pitch and get seriously injured.
You can say the same about Ohtani and his injuries and if his arm will be the same after another major surgery. Will he still have the power? Will he be able to pitch? How durable is the arm? That’s also an unknown. For me I would rather the Cardinals get the 25 year old Yamamoto who is injury free and is solely focused on pitching. Ohtani is great just how great will he be after so many injuries.
Kenta was definitely eating something during the 2020 World Series, but innings were not on the menu. I’m not too sure the Twins were in that World Series. I could be wrong…
Kenta pitched zero innings in the 2020 WS, ya know, since the Twins were at home watching it be played.
2017 World Series
Instant insanity. It’s like love at first sight but with crazy.
They could get Yamamoto, Bellinger and Go for the price of Ohtani. No way Ohtani pitches like he did last year when he comes back. Get all 3 for one
One player just can’t impact the game enough. Look at the Angels.
Ohtani is going to be the closest thing to the exception because he’s really two players, but that assumes that he can pitch as effectively as he did and consistently give you a substantial number of innings.
If you had $500m to spend, you could improve your team a lot more by spreading that money out than by just giving it to Ohtani, as incredible as he is.
Maton on the brain. Is he a relative?
Dodgers could sign both Ohtani and Yamamoto and trade prospects to add a couple of cheap guys. After last year, their POBO is in the frying pan.
They certainly could and boy do I hope they don’t lol
Had to think about what you meant by POBO, but now that I have, I’m going to say his job is probably not on the line this year any more than it has been in previous years. Management has made it clear they judge their success not in the same way fans do, but on how many seats they sell. So long as they can keep raising ticket prices they figure they are succeeding.
I would imagine it’s a 4 team race for Yamamoto. The Mets, Yankees, Dodgers and the Giants. I’m sure they’ll be a 5th team in on him to though. There’s always a dark-horse team involved.
I think you missed Boston no doubt Boston is going after him hard they have the cap space and they reset the lux tax and I think they have an ownership that wants to get back to winning. I give Boston as good a chance as any of those other 4 teams.
Boy if fans could pick the FA a team signs most teams would be broke LOL- I know that is hard to picture with the Dodgers ut careful what you wish for….
How do we think that 9ish K-rate is gonna translate over here? Not sure I’m backing up the dump truck for a guy who isn’t gonna miss ML bats. Not saying he can’t be successful, but…
My guess is it will play very well. Senga’s K rate jumped by one full strikeout and he had a very good year. Japanese hitters tend to be more contact conscious with shorter swings so I think YY’s stuff will play very well in MLB. Looking forward to seeing him pitch.
Yeah the NPB isn’t full of dudes looking to pull the ball for 30 HRs a year with a 32% K-rate like MLB is.
Ah, that makes sense. Thanks!
I think Senga needs another season before we declare him a success. Today’s hitters study so much and rely on scouting. Senga was great, but next season, players will have a lot more video to study. I still think Senga will be great, but a sophomore slump wouldn’t shock me.
Yamamoto had better numbers than senga in Japan. Senga was surprisingly good in his first year usually takes a year to adjust. In fact Bauer was studying how Yamamoto was pitching to get adjusted to Japan after a couple of bad games, and said he was the best pitcher he has seen on his blog.
K rates increase for Japanese pitchers moving to MLB.
The stuff will play. The K rates will follow
@just_thinkin- It’s likely that his strikeouts will even get higher then 9, considering Yamamoto throws power stuff, and just the fact Is that these batters here have never seen him pitch before. So the early advantage belongs to Yamamoto.
I hope the Astros sign him
Don’t see it at his price tag. This deal is going to be north of $200MM.
Let me have my hope lol
Don’t forget that’s just the contract you have to add in what you post to his team – it will be closer to 300 than 200 when all included .
I wouldn’t pay five dollars for him, but it’s not my money. He would probably have his games televised in Japan like ohtani, and bring in a lot of fans and media. 250 million for a 25 year old isn’t that much, and that’s a 9-10 year deal.
Soooo, if all of that good stuff is true, why wouldn’t you pay five dollars for him?
If I owed a team I would, people complain about contracts like they own the team
Anyone know how long the Posting Period is? Ive read 30 days (wiki) and 45 days (mlb.com).
It’s 45 days. The 30 day period is from the old system
So what Im reading is Wikipedia might not always be accurate. ‘Sigh’
Yes, that page is outdated. Thanks for the reminder though, I may fix this if I get some time:)
LAD or NYY by my guess. ARI as a dark horse. He is going to be a very good investment I think. Would be perfectly happy to see M’s get involved if they trade Miller/Woo/Hancock but I dont expect them to be players here.
good vides only, As a Red Sox fan, love to see Woo to Boston via trade. Sox need another good young arm to put with Bello
I don’t get it what happened to all the Cuban pitchers? I guess Japan the new farm system
I think it comes down to either the Cubs, Yankees, Dodgers or Red Sox. Although Rangers could be in on him too, but my gut feeling is Red Sox, even if I’d like the Cubs to sign him.
Think a lot more teams than that. His bidding will be high because of the number of years. Most have him being under 30m a year. So at 20-25m per everyone can afford him easily.
Now if his aav shoots up to 30m+ then it will weed out a lot of teams.
If you don’t include the Giants you’re not paying attention.
Pete,
Yup you’re right missed them. They really are a legitimate team that would make an offer.
Giants fan I presume? If so, he’d be a big splash for you guys.
Mets are all in on him as well
Cmon Giants! Gonna need that arm in the bay.
Fingers crossed for Yamamoto, Lee, Montgomery
That’s my same wishlist, Uggla! C’mon Pads, get ’em done.
Great minds eh?
I would never give any player an “opt out clause.” Never ever.
Yeah, opt outs suck, but for some players it’s become standard, If my team signs Yamamoto (and I hope they do), they’d probably have to include an opt out, preferably no earlier than 5 years in, given the money he’s gonna receive.
An opt-out is just one more clause in a contract. If YY was willing to sign a cheaper contract with the RS, because we were willing to give him an opt-out after five years, I’d be fine with that.
My theory being that, if you could magically get out of a l/t FA contract halfway through, you would almost always be ahead.
I ‘m on the mutual opt-out bandwagon. For every opt-out the player receives, the team receives a corresponding opt-out. Good for the goose.
Most of the time you don’t want the last few years of a deal anyway. Let them opt out after a few years and get someone else to give them a shiny new contract. While you cashed in on the years that were good enough for them to opt out after.
Not sure an opt out is practical as the money after the opt out out is still “guaranteed”. So if it’s 8-200 with an opt out after four years, would think the team signing him would still have to pay a posting fee based on the entire $200, even if Yamamoto only stays for the first 4-100.
Good point, but might still be worth it. Let’s call it a 5-year opt-out. It would be the equivalent of maybe $157M/5. That might still be better than ($200M + $32M) or $232M/8.
If it helped land him, I would still do it.
I’m seeing an era around 4.5 which puts him at a JP Sears or Christian Javier level. Not terrible, but this dude isn’t worth the hype. He’ll be looking for the nearest boat home by the all star game.
Care to explain the basis of the 4.5?
Thought about asking but then saw who posted that, so not interested in reading more gibberish.
Give Nola 30 days to take the Phillies best offer. If he doesn’t, sign Yamamoto 9/275.
Get him Zaidi!!!!!
Mike Rizzo is all over this guy. Mike, get a room, will ya?
I thought Tanaka’s contract was pretty close but $50M is quite a bit of daylight.
Sir this is a baseball trade rumors website.
He has the same last name as Adm. Isoroku Yamamoto who commanded Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor.
One of my grandfathers has the same name as a very prominent person who signed the Declaration of Independence…
Also, in Japan surnames come first, not last, but Americans don’t believe in respecting that.
Samoa has an even more convoluted name system than the Japanese one.
It isn’t a matter of respect as much as custom. Some of the Japanese I know adopted American nicknames. And I would be introduced as Joe-san, even though I’d have been perfectly comfortable with Brady-san.
Remember the old days when drug dealers had morals?
The Japanese Triad coming to Boston this year and rings are in our future! Full Throttle Sox! Let’s go!
baseballguru – No rings until Devers moves to DH. Can’t be bottom of the barrel at fielding. As the worst fielding 3B or all time (not counting the deadball era over 100 years ago) Devers hurts the chances of winning, of drawing good pitchers to Boston and destroys the clubhouse as pitcher have to keep putting up with base runners that wouldn’t be there with just an average defender. Trade Devers for Arenado and Boston will start to draw SPs to Boston without having to pay premiums due to the defense.
This Cardinals fan will give you Arenado’s defense in return for the 5 years age difference. I’ll be in the minority.0
2018 says hello.
And Arenado would be a terrible trade. He’s already peaked. I’d make a sizeable wager that Devers bWAR/$1M is higher than Arenado’s over the next 3 years.
StL should’ve traded him at the deadline last year.
Let’s get out the Pecan Pie, the watermelon, the peanuts, the peaches, and about $200 mil and bring him over for the holidays and make him one of the family.
C’mon Jed do whatever it takes to get Yamamoto on the Cubs. Maybe not 9 years. But 7 years with options for an 8th and 9th year would be okay.
I’ve reviewed my finances and had the necessary discussions with my family; Like practically everyone else, we are officially “in” on Yamamoto.
Some team’s fans are going to get a really nice Christmas present this year.
Red Sox need to jump on this guy tomorrow like with Yoshida Masataka last year 10/230 might get it done…its the “troll” premium lol but think it works regardless of 3b defense…and well worth it for a 25 year old with his reported pedigree
こんにちは、山本です。こちらはあなたの親友の鈴木です。来年、オオタニと私と一緒にシカゴで野球をしに来てください。私たちはワールドシリーズで優勝します。ここにもとても美味しいお寿司があります。
こんにちは。山本です。実はハンバーガーとタコスの方が好きです。
こんにちは、山本です。 LAの女性が大好きです！
Will the Giants do what they need to do or is this guy going to sign in division and torment us for a decade?
I hope the DBacks are serious suitors for Yamamoto. They would have a pretty solid rotation with him, Kelly, Gallen, and Pfaadt for the next few years. Stocking up on bullpen arms would be a good idea too and that’s what the Braves are doing right now. Time to get into the hunt!
Yoshinobu Yamamoto Officially Posted By Orix Buffaloes
It’s ‘Go Time’ for the Orioles!!!!!
Lefty – Mandelbaum! Mandelbaum! Mandelbaum!
Hahahah I like that
Always a risk, different size baseball, pitch every 6 days, (and same day of week too no?) while it may be simple to say go to a 6 man rotation, most mlb pitchers don’t want that
I don’t think my team gets him and I’ll be surprised if he lives up to the hype. I think he’ll be like Masahiro Tanaka- he will live up to the contract but he won’t really make a huge difference for whatever team signs him.
He is a break even proposition.
Come on Mets, don’t wait or be outbid, we need him, we need 3 SP’s , a couple of relievers and a DH ( Hoskins/Soler)
Place your bets! Let’s see if we get a bidding war, and if so, who throws the kitchen sink at Yamamoto. I think it will come down to the Red Sox and Giants, but a whole lot of teams are going to make an offer at the very least.
If he is looking at a 10-25m per then I think any team could be in on him (minus the A’s type).
Don’t will come down to if a team is willing to really push that aav up and where he prefers to live.
Most likely landing spots…both New York teams, Red Sox, cardinals, cubs, rangers, dodgers, giants, padres, mariners.
My guess is one of the west coast teams have the best chance. So I’ll go with dodgers, mariners and padres.
Think the giants will be in on him but elects to live elsewhere.
Mets, offering 9/250 w/opt outs in years 5 and 7. Massive risk but exactly what Cohen has to do to appease the fan base.
10/250 with the first 3 yrs. being 15M, Next 3 years being 25M. Next 3 years at 30M. Last year at 40M. Opt out at 5yr mark.
Yankees aren’t in on him….too expensive. They already have $136 mil annually committed to Judge, Stanton, Cole and Rodon until 2027.
I’m going to guess SF. They have money to spend, need to make a splash and the west coast-Japan logistics of it make sense.
Just please not the Angels, we have already watched two of the greatest talents baseball has ever seen be wasted on that team.
So it’s just straight negotiation with Yoshi right? I recall we got rid of the old system where the posting fee went to the Japanese team and then a smaller contract was negotiated with the player once they were the only team to negotiate
Mostly, I think the posting team gets like 20% of what he signs for. Not sure if it’s on a scale or not.
Points for creativity I guess? Maybe novelty?
Nola coming off the board is going to really help his contract.
really hard to pass up on Ohtani (even with the pitching question marks), but turning that into Yamamoto & Imanaga… might make you feel better
Welcome To Detroit Mr. Yamamoto!!!!
Boston
Boston
C’moooooon Oakland!
Boston, please!
I’ll be specific here: He’ll sign at the winter meetings for a lot of money. Ok, the first part is specific, the second part less so!
The Tigers have been pretty conservative when it comes to giving out contracts under Chris Illich so I would be very surprised if they land him. They are free and clear of Miggy’s $32 million a year contract so they do have the funds to make it happen. My money is on San Francisco or Seattle getting him. San Francisco has been desperate for years to get a star only to lose out to the Dodgers or Yankees or whoever for less money. So they might overpay.
Because nobody wants to go there.
Yamamoto will win a lot of games with the Dodgers.
Here you go. Ohtani. Is going to dodgers. Cubs better not spend that kind of on him not worth it. Sign this guy save money for other players if this guy wants big money then go else were
He’ll be reborn …as a……
Tiger.
Dodgers seem to have the inside track on both Ohtani and Yamamoto!
Otonia won’t pitch like you used to ever so there you go
I hope Seattle gets him. That will really shake up the trade market !
If MLBTR is close in their projection YY would make sense for a team just coming out of a rebuild or expected to next year. That would sync his career window with that team’s emerging talent
I’d love to see the Orioles sign him and relegate the AL East Sox-Yanks-Jays triumvirate to being immaterial for a few years. Tampa Bay will always be successful with the way their front office evaluates talent.
The Tigers should.go.for.ALl the Japanese pitchers.and.the Koreans.guys.and……..
Trade, trade, trade!