An already murky Pirates rotation mix is now facing even more uncertainty, as Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports that righty Johan Oviedo is dealing with an arm injury that’s believed to be serious. The team hasn’t announced details or a precise diagnosis, but Mackey writes that Tommy John surgery is among the potential outcomes, so it would seem there’s some degree of ligament damage at play.
Oviedo, 25, came to the Pirates in the 2022 trade that sent lefty Jose Quintana to the division-rival Cardinals. Prior to the revelation of this injury, the righty had been locked into a 2024 rotation spot after taking the ball 32 times and pitching to a 4.31 ERA over the life of 177 2/3 innings. It’s hardly elite production, particularly when coupled with sub-par strikeout (20.6%) and walk (10.6%) rates, but Oviedo at least looked like a solid fourth starter who could be relied upon to take the ball every fifth game and keep his club in the game more often than not. Obviously, the mention of even potential Tommy John surgery throws a major wrench into that projection.
That’s particularly problematic news for a Pirates team that is generally lacking in established starters. Longtime top prospect Mitch Keller took a step forward in 2022-23 and is the unquestioned leader of the staff, but certainty thereafter is minimal. Right-hander Roansy Contreras took a step back in 2023, while fellow righty JT Brubaker had his own Tommy John surgery. Deadline pickup Bailey Falter has had some past success with the Phillies but struggled between both Pennsylvania clubs in 2023. Young right-handers Luis Ortiz and Quinn Priester each made at least 10 appearances, but neither cemented himself as a big leaguer. Alternative options like Osvaldo Bido, Jackson Wolf and Kyle Nicolas are similarly unproven.
General manager Ben Cherington has already stated publicly that his focus has been on starting pitching. Cherington presumably knew of Oviedo’s situation at the time of those comments, so this may not necessarily add any urgency to that search, but the revelation of Oviedo’s injury adds context for potential trade partners and agents as the Bucs explore ways to add to the rotation. With such ample uncertainty beyond Keller, it’d be fairly surprising if the Pirates didn’t add at least two arms to the rotation group for the upcoming season (to say nothing of veteran depth on minor league deals and some potential pickups of 40-man starters with minor league options remaining).
As things stand, the Pirates project for just a $53MM payroll in 2024, per Roster Resource. Even by their bottom-of-the-league standards, that leaves ample room for the team to add some experienced arms to the staff. Bryan Reynolds and Ke’Bryan Hayes are the only players under guaranteed contracts, while the quintet of Keller, Brubaker, Ryan Borucki, David Bednar and Connor Joe are eligible for arbitration. Pittsburgh’s franchise-record Opening Day payroll was just shy of $100MM back in 2016. They operated with a payroll a bit north of $70MM in 2023.
Oviedo isn’t even arbitration-eligible yet and won’t be until after the 2024 season. He’s currently under club control for another four years, so even in the event that Oviedo does require UCL surgery, the Bucs could potentially get another three years out of him (2025-27) before he reaches free agency.
Dang another TJS. If that’s case, hope he rebounds well.
He hadn’t touched 150 IP since 2019 in the minors? Pittsburg needed to build him up a little better? The pitch clock contributed to alot of surgeries in 2023 I’m sure?
Maybe a little bit of everything. It’s not as if he was constantly suffering from injuries in 2021 or 2022. he pitched nearly 120 innings in each season. Can’t just drip feed him 10-15 more innings each year. He has to get a full workload at some point before he turns 29.
You are purely speculating on both of your theories. No proof either IP or time between pitches contributed to his injury.
Almost unbelievable. Well, here’s hoping that ownership has given Cherington the high sign to spend on some top-line starters. Hard to imagine them going north with Keller and a cast of rookies or cheaper options
Shame. I thought the kid was really making strides down the stretch
He can have all the oks anybody could want but if he can’t get anybody to sign there what is the point
Definitely sucks. As a Cardinal fan it’s too bad seeing him get hurt after getting a chance and performing. The timing isn’t terrible he should be fully healthy for 2025 or darn close to it.
I agree, he will be back
This is extremely frustrating. Oviedo looked very solid in 2023, just inconsistent on a start-to-start basis. He would have two or three very good starts, then a blow up start, rinse-repeat. But it was his first extended look in the major leagues. Not completley unexpected there were some bumps in the road.
I’ve seen some takes on social media saying that the Pirates should have shutdown Oviedo, he pitched so much, etc etc. Like I get that he pitched a lot this season, but Oviedo was just a few frames shy of 120 innings in 2022. He can’t be babied forever. The difference in Tommy John surgery probably wasn’t 150 innings and the amount he pitched this year.
It would be a massive blow if he underwent TJ. But if he does, the important thing is that the Pirates take it in stride and acquire some decent SPs this off-season. I really hope they go all-in on at least one of the top options. Then go after like Michael Wacha, Wade Miley, and let the kids fight over the 5th spot.
Oviedo for a few starts from quintana was an absolute steal for the pirates. Hopefully he doesn’t require surgery
Here’s hoping they aim a bit higher than those two although you’re right, they are better than the alternative
I second that – Wacha and Miley are what they are – and there are better rebound candidates out there. Given the recent news on Quantrill out of Cleveland, I’d be trying to figure out a deal there – maybe someone akin to Jackson Glenn and a Low A lottery ticket – to add a potential quality arm for a reasonably low cost.
Chad Kuhl, come on down!
Wow, Is there anything unhealthier than being a SP for the Pirates? Being a Female Executive for the Marlins maybe?
Drummer for Spinal Tap.
Being an uncle mike I assume
Contreras figures things out he has way more upside than Oviedo. And he was one of the best pitchers in the league in April so he may get another chance & run with it this time.
Seriously? The kid lost 10 mph off his fast ball and apparently all of his confidence. From what I’ve read, he didn’t figure much out when he was sent down to the instructional league. This sounds like a real reach
I was surprised to see the Cardinals let him go. But the trade helped the Cardinals as well as it could.
Pirates have plenty of $, prospects, and time to put together a rotation.
Plenty of money?
Did I miss the Nutting and Cohen agree to trade franchises article?
Seriously, with the uncertainty of the RSN’s, and Nutting’s risk adverse nature, I don’t think they are spending as much as you would like.
MLB guaranteed them at least 80 percent of what they have been paid I believe. They may be able to beat that but that’s worst case. Attendance was highest since 2017. They have a awful marketing and pr dept but even they shouldn’t keep attendance from rising again in 2024.
Spend as much as I like? I mostly hate mega contracts, dislike large contracts. Am firm believer of building farm system and loading team with young cheap talent. Either player signs team friendly extension or they will be traded before arb 3. I wouldn’t spend anymore than Bob Nutting. Not that it’s a option to spend more in the Pittsburgh market.
They now need 4 reliable SP’s to go with Keller. Internal options are: Contreras, Ortiz, Falters, Wolf, and Bido. Can’t remember if Jackson is still on the roster, but if so, he needs to be included.
Sometime after OD, they will also have Brubaker, Burrows, Jones, Skenes, and maybe Solometo, and Chandler.
Of those two groupings, I wouldn’t want to count on any of them in group #1. Group #2 looks pretty damn promising.
This is another reason I would expect BC to load up on 1-year bounce back, or end of career types this winter.
I think there’s a pretty high likelihood that the Pirates are north of $30 million of FAs regardless of the things you mentioned. The key for the Pirates always will be how well invested that $30+ million is.
While not a lock, you could pencil in $5 million or so for Cutch – he was worth that off the field alone to the franchise. They save a little money parting ways with Joe, who became expendable when Palacios and Triolo started figuring things out.
You’ve got to allocate at least $12-15 million over a multi-year deal to even sniff a mid-rotation guy, let’s just say they’re in on that for now until we see what Montgomery signs for, which will set the market.
Then you’ve got the rebound guys. Typically, you’d want those kinds of guys for around $3-4 million each, probably a couple of them, given the Oviedo situation. If you aim higher, at someone like Severino; you’re probably only getting him. Let’s say about $10 million here.
Lastly, 1B has to be addressed in some way. Worst case is that the job is Triolo’s to lose, with some fill-ins from Davis/Endy. That would be fine as long as all involved stay healthy and hit, but leaves the team woefully thin on depth there. Forget about Hoskins, getting him would cost that mid-line starter, and honestly his power won’t play at PNC as well as it does in that bandbox in Philly. Bringing back Santana or Choi are options, if you require a LH bat, then you’re looking at Belt (who is old and expensive) or perhaps you get Jared Walsh, with the idea that he and Triolo split the position pretty evenly. You probably need at least $5 million to get something done with a free agent, maybe a little less with Walsh.
That’s $35 million, and we’re not even counting the Minor League FAs or a potential bullpen guy.
Don’t know that they need another bullpen arm and I agree with your financial claim here. If they are of the opinion that they can compete for a wild card at the very least, they have no choice than to write some big checks. But this is a big “if,” of course
Watching this team come together over the last month or so was a wondrous thing, especially with what amounted to a 2-man starting staff. Offhand, there’s not a big difference between them and the Cubs, Reds or Marlins
There are many things to consider before they spend big money on starters and a great deal of review of their question marks. They’re all around the field
Who plays right? Is Cutch really insisting on playing a percentage in the field? Can Davis cut it out there?
Who plays 1st? Will Triolo get a long look? Do you bring in an affordable guy like Santana or aim higher with Belt?
Did last year’s revolving door in the middle infield provide any answers?
Again, it seems like there is a commitment to an infield duo of Cruz and Termarr for the future….what happens in the interim?
I could go on.
They have a lot to think about before making the commitment to spend. I have to think they already know the direction they’ll go this off-season
I’m just curious how this took till November to figure out….
The net effect of this is Pirates will have to spread their already limited financial resources even thinner. Now more likely Pirates will be back shopping in the “weekly specials” about to expire section of the MLB FA Grocery store.
I was hoping for better. Now I’m skeptical they sign in FA SP on a multi-year deal.
Well the problem is, they need more than one SP via free agency or trade. One starter back, three coming back from major surgery God knows when, and now Oviedo.
I also would like to know why this was not announced six weeks ago.
Perdomo was known to have been hurt but clearly not to the extent that he was.
Did Oviedo pitch hurt?
The Pirates have money but will not spend it as Cherington was wrong.The rebuild is not over.
Small market teams cannot compete because they lack pitching depth unless you are the Rays,Brewers,or Guardians.
They will not be able to spend for Sonny Gray so it is quantity vs quality.
And the youngsters will not c9me up through the year and be any better than Priester was last year.It takes them 2-3 years to become good ML pitchers.
Oviedo upon improvement had the potential to become a #2 starter.
There are some caveats here, to be sure
On one hand, the Pirates did not use top draft selections on pitchers for a number of years, at least not consistency or with any sense of urgency
But those pitchers they did select seemingly went nowhere within the system, another testament to both their scouting and player development departments.
That said, I like a number of their minor league studs —especially Bubba and Skenes—but you’re right. Feeding them to the wolves isn’t going to help them or the team
On the contrary, they *do* have the money but it will be shocking to see them go after Gray-like pitchers, or better. I would wonder how close ownership and the front office thinks this team is to competing in the division or for a WC berth in this regard
I guess that if they do spend—perhaps a blend of a top starter and others in the typical off season signing category—we’ll see they are actually “going for it”
You’re right, the re-build isn’t over. But I’ll be surprised if ownership seeks to push this group closer to truly being competitive
Mister-Good post.I think that I may have jumped the gun saying 83 wins next year.
The state of pitching now is that you need twice as many starters as what you thought.
I did forget about Skenes who I sense can come up after the proverbial couple of months and be a big league pitcher.
Hopefully one of the three touted young pitchers can rebound from last year and become a bona fide starter.
That only leaves two or three left.
BC will have to try to work his magic to get two starters from amongst the level three ones left after half the teams are done signing them.
And there are two or three injured guys who may be able to come back at the half way point.
And Shelton can work his magic with the Rays concept of spot starters.I was fairly impressed with the young relievers that they had at the end of the year.
But all of that does not take into account the inevitable injury losses that will occur.
I think that of the core group of position players clearly improves both offensively and defensively then it will behoove Nutting NEXT year to start spending.At least the starting pitcher signees this year may be signed with the intent on keeping them via two year contracts.
Yeah, the Shelton magic. I don’t want to give the guy too much credit here because let’s face it, he had no recourse. His staff simply made him look like a genius
But given what we saw, would you be surprised to see baseball go in this direction. Instead of a need for 5 solid starters, maybe just 2-3 with a group of lockdown relievers that comprise your staff. Or spot starters, as you say
Agree 100% with your view about improvement forcing ownership to spend. Still, given their second half, are they really behind the Marlins, Cubs or Reds?
Of course, it depends on ownership’s view of things. Is the goal to compete for wild cards or win division and league crowns? Is the idea to do this organically, with the huge core coming from your draft and development ala the D-backs, or will they continue to troll the lower wrung of free agency to stay above water another year?
One has to crawl before one can walk.
Pirate fans and management will be happy to compete for a wild card like the three teams that you mention.
Neil Huntington was happy with wild cards because “anything can happen” once you make the playoffs.
I do not buy that.
However,the rebuild ends in my mind when they compete for one every year for their small market team window period of time.
In order to go any higher and extend into the playoffs you need three good starting pitchers and at least two superstars or you need to be extremely lucky.
And to do that almost certainly means lots of money unless your organization has much much better development teams than the Pirates have.