The Guardians have long run a payroll at or near the bottom of the league, with a payroll in the bottom third of the league in each of the last four seasons and eleven of the last fourteen years per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. 2023 was no exception to that, as the club’s payroll sat at just $89MM, the sixth-lowest figure in the majors. Zack Meisel of The Athletic reports that the austerity of recent seasons isn’t expected to change in 2024, as the club expects to run a payroll at a similar level next season.
RosterResource projects the Guardians for a $94MM payroll in 2024 as things stand, meaning that Cleveland essentially has no room for further additions without cutting costs elsewhere on the roster. As Meisel notes, further additions are all but necessary in the outfield if the Guardians hope to compete in 2024 following a 76-86 performance that saw them finish ahead of only the lowly White Sox and Royals in the notoriously weak AL Central. Those struggles can primarily be traced back to the club’s woeful offense, which produced a wRC+ of just 92 in 2024, MLB’s ninth-worst figure. Those offensive struggles, in turn, connect back to a disastrous outfield situation; Cleveland’s outfielders slashed just .253/.312/.344 in 2023, with a 84 wRC+ that narrowly avoids being the worst in the majors thanks to Kansas City’s figure of 82.
With no payroll space remaining and a projected outfield of Steven Kwan, Myles Straw, and Ramon Laureano headed into 2024, Meisel suggests that Cleveland brass may have their hand forced into freeing up payroll space with a trade of longtime ace Shane Bieber or even shopping closer Emmanuel Clase, whose $20MM extension prior to the 2022 season has become one of the league’s best values thanks to back-to-back All Star campaigns the past two seasons. MLBTR’s Matt Swartz projects Bieber for a $12.2MM salary in his final trip through arbitration this offseason, while Clase is slated to earn $2.9MM in 2024.
Trading Clase, Meisel notes, would require the Guardians to be “overwhelmed” by an offer for the 25-year-old. That’s hardly a surprise, given the five seasons of affordable club control remaining on the closer’s contract and his resume over the past three seasons, which includes a sterling 1.97 ERA and 110 saves in 131 chances. That being said, it’s worth noting that the Guardians swung a deal earlier this offseason to acquire Scott Barlow from the Padres. Though Barlow is coming off a down year split between the Royals and Padres in 2023, the righty was among the better closers in the game for the Royals in 2021 and 2022, with a 2.30 ERA and 3.13 FIP. Speculatively speaking, the addition of Barlow could make the Guardians more amenable to dealing Clase, as they would have a clear internal option for the ninth inning with closing experience lined up to take over for him headed into next season.
Bieber, on the other hand, would not be as difficult to pry away, as Meisel suggests that Bieber’s trade value has depreciated in recent years and the Guardians would be “selling low” on Bieber in any trade. From 2019-22, Bieber was among the league’s most effective starters with a 2.91 ERA and 2.95 ERA across 588 1/3 innings of work. Things took a turn for the worse this year, however, as the 28-year-old made just 21 starts due to struggles with elbow inflammation that left him shut down for much of the summer. What’s more, Bieber’s results were diminished when he was able to take the field: his 3.80 ERA and 3.86 FIP, while still above average, were pedestrian by his standards and he posted a career-worst 20.1% strikeout rate. Those potential red flags haven’t stopped teams from showing interest in Bieber’s services, as at least the Cubs and Reds have both inquired after the right-hander this winter.
That said, with arms such as Dylan Cease, Tyler Glasnow, and Corbin Burnes rumored to be available this offseason, it’s easy to see why Bieber may be a less appealing trade target than the aforementioned names. A strong start to the season from Bieber could substantially improve his stock on the trade market, meaning it could make plenty of sense for the Guardians to hold onto the righty entering the season before re-evaluating at the deadline. Such a plan, however, would likely require the club to get creative in their search for outfield solutions. While the club has a surplus of young infield options, Meisel suggests that the club is reluctant to thin out its depth in that area of the roster.
Meisel does note one potential ray of hope for the Guardians regarding their payroll situation: their broadcasting revenue situation. The Guardians are one of many teams thrust into an uncertain revenue situation by the bankruptcy of Diamond Sports Group, and a report last month indicated the Diamond could drop the Guardians from their broadcasting deal headed into 2024. While that could leave the club without as much as $60MM in broadcast revenue next season, Meisel also notes that the club could find itself with enough additional room in its baseball operations budget to make some minor upgrades to the roster without cutting additional salary as they “gain additional clarity” on their broadcasting situation.
wow, MLBTR is predicting a 2024 wRC+ of 92! that’s cruel and unusual!
I don’t really care that they changed their name but Spiders is 100x better than Guardians.
Spiders are creepy, literally!
I think that they should have gone with the Cleveland Rock Stars…
@ Buzz Killington
Neither is inspired, that’s the point. 100x zero is still zero.
I think the Cleveland “Browns Fans” would be a more fitting name for that city. Because there’s literally nothing else going on there besides they all love the crappy Browns
I take issue with the entire article. Ohtani is looking seriously at the Guardians
They’re basically trading Bieber for salary relief and a lotto ticket or two from the DSL. Basically all the NL central teams could be possible suitors based on need. Adding in Clase would be a good way to increase the Bieber return. Cincy might be more willing to deal a better prospect for both Bieber and Clase. Or maybe a Tyler O’Neil/Bieber swap
Clase will fetch a haul.
Bieber will get them something back but it won’t be a game changing prospect.
Cleveland should do a full rebuild and trade Ramirez too.
Cleveland doesn’t do full rebuilds and has a very solid young rotation. They can stick around with a couple roster tweaks.
I’d trade Bieber and consider Clase if the return is very good. Cleveland should buy Power bats and keep developing pitchers.
They’re really good at the latter and terrible with the former. I really think they would’ve cashed out on Bieber before last season if not for Tito. I think they wanted to give him another crack at it.
Shame because Bieber would’ve actually fetched a nice return if you went back to this time last year.
Riiiiight. And coming off a division-winning season, trading your top starter would be the smart thing to do, I gather.
Uh-huh. Sure.
Second-guessing fans, there’s millions of ’em.
They likely would’ve traded him during the season instead of Civale had he not been injured.
@Avory
Kinda like trading Trevor Bauer or Mike Clevinger in the middle of a playoff race, huh?
Let’s not act like it was beyond the typical operating plan for the Guards
I’m not banging them up for those trades either. I admire the conviction they have and the ability to pump out more quality starters.
Bieber had some cracks under the surface after 2022 and I thought a pitching development factory like Cleveland would cash him out for a big return at the time. Like I said, I think Tito’s impending retirement held them back.
Let’s not act like those were anywhere near apples to oranges situations, but when you’re a whiner, always a whiner. CLE wasn’t in a race when the petulant and under achieving Bauer threw a ball over the centerfield fence in a hissy fit on the mound right in front of the manager. Clevinger was dealt away in a Mickey Mouse covid season when playoffs were expanded and the “mighty” Clev was struggling with nagging injuries and underperformance. CLE got rid of a ticking time bomb and a cancer in the clubhouse. His subtraction was addition across the board. Now you’re here to tell me coming off a division-winning season that dealing away your ace is something a team like Cleveland does? That Bieber’s situation or status on the team is in any way analogous to bums like Bauer and Clevinger? Only someone with a warped prism and a lingering grudge would even pretend to say something like that.
Tito’s “impending retirement” had zero to do with not trading Bieber. The team had just won a division title and gone 4-3 in the playoffs against two AL East stalwarts. So THAT’S when you trade your ace? For god’s sake, what do you think Cleveland is in the business of doing? This is a competitive business and everyone in that organization wants to win, hell, that’s why they gave $26 million—twenty six million dollars!—to Josh Bell and Mike Zunino in 2023 to shore up holes, because they wanted to continue the good times, Francona or no Francona. And frankly, if they cared so much about Terry, they never would have dealt Civale with the team a game out of first place, leaving him high and dry with no hope of having a competitive rotation. (By the way, I criticized the front office for dealing Civale and not obtaining a stop gap starter to give the team a chance. But the deep thinkers clearly didn’t believe we could handle our hard schedule or that the Twins would collapse with their easy one, and they were proven correct. I still detest the way that whole thing was handled. It was the first time I ever saw us run up the white flag like that, and clearly the front office recognized it, putting in the three waiver claims for pitchers, but too little, too late).
Mlbnyfan, Cleveland has had the youngest team in MLB the last two seasons. They are not and do not need to rebuild.
They are listening on Clase to get MLB help in order to compete. If they don’t get what the want or need, Clase stays in Cleveland.
Ramirez isn’t going anywhere. He took a huge hometown discount to stay in Cleveland.
Which is incredibly rare. They know they’re not getting another superstar to commit to them for well below market value anytime soon.
STL fans are delusional. O’Neill has basically zero trade value. Carlson not much more.
You know what Cleveland would have if they could develop their own OF’ers?
Nolan Jones and Will Benson. Both pretty good hitting corner outfielders that CLE flopped on.
Yep. Coming off absurdly high and historically unsustainable BABIP’s, you won’t even remember you said this once those two regress hard in 2024.
Cleveland mishandled Jones. Playing in Colorado he’ll have to try hard to regress. Much like thinking Franmil Reyes wouldn’t regress, Cleveland has a knack for not evaluating their position talent well.
So freaking g bizarre. They can pluck a major league arm like Bibee and have him rotation ready in 2yrs but miss on every position player.
And, Jones was a top prospect in 2018/2019. When it was time to trade him for MLB assets to help them push for playoff contention with their pitching staff, they do nothing. Bobby Bradley, same thing. Cleveland was not willing to push their prospects in for a big, controllable bat to help support the solid pitching staff.
I’m also not sure what’s up with the fascination with LH bats that can’t hit offspeed pitches.
Sounds like the Blue Jays front office. Makes sense since they came from Cleveland.
You guys are hilarious. Here they’ve spent their time building a rotation when most teams can’t even develop one starter, successfully developed Jose Ramirez, Steven Kwan,and Bo Naylor, traded for Josh Naylor and Andres Gimenez, did the right thing in getting Franmil Reyes (you telling me anyone could have seen his collapse coming?) Had Reyes developed like he should have, to anchor the right-handed side of this lineup with his prodigious power, no one would have said a thing about position player “failures.”
Again, go look at Nolan Jones’s BABIP and tell me that there is any player in the game’s history who kept that up for long. It has nothing to do with playing in Colorado, otherwise everyone who ever played there would be a Hall of Famer. The guy CLE got for Jones, Juan Brito, has a much better approach to hitting than Nolan does, and therefore has a better chance of having a long, successful career in the game. But you’ll have something else to whine about by then, won’t you?
Your squad has squandered opportunities and you can’t see that. That is on you. What is hilarious is you think you know something. Your hitting is a big reason Cleveland comes up short. Anyway, take that clue and run with it.
No-Jo will not maintain that BABIP.
He’s still a better corner outfielder than the guards have on their squad.
You realize 10% above the league average would be a gigantic upgrade for Cleveland? He was 35% w/ the unsustainable BABIP. He’s carried BABIPs in excess of .350 throughout his pro career. The steals are surprising. I didn’t peg him for a 20-25 base stealer. We’ll see about that.
But instead of that in the lineup you have another 2B prospect.
Regardless of player development, you can’t trudge out an outfield of Kwan, Straw, Laureano/Brennan and expect to win any division in major league baseball. And remember, Kwan surprised everyone, including the FO. Brito might be good, and certainly strikes out a whole lot less than Jones, but SS has also become a black hole in the lineup unless Arias can figure our LH pitching. But you can say that about 3/4 of the Guardians lineup. Will they be aggressive with promotions of DeLauter or Chourio? My guess is no, it’s not really their MO. It may seem asinine to complain about a team that contends almost every year and has a pitching staff that’s the envy of most MLB, but put Cleveland back in the East and this conversation is very different.
I also really like the Cleveland organization. I don’t know why you go to a brash defense every single time a slightly negative bullet point is presented.
They need to take a look at what they’re doing wrong with the power hitters in the system. What’s the flaw in that dept? . Even Josh Bell went to Miami and immediately started popping out hrs.
Cleveland has had more bites at the apple than any other similarly situated ream over the years. It’s only myopic observers like you who can’t recognize that no one can “will” anything in the game of baseball. There’s an enormous component of luck involved, hey CLE has the 3rd best record in AL history, only behind big markets BOS and NY, a standing that has only improved over the last 20 years, so please stop with the nonsense that this team has somehow underachieved.
Is that right? So how did they win the division in 2022? It doesn’t matter WHERE your production comes from, it’s that you get enough to have a sufficiently high run differential to compete. Last year’s offense, with the sole exception of Josh Naylor, severely underperformed conservative projections. I’m betting that won’t happen again, whether or not they make the splash you think is required in the OF. This “chicken little” outlook is as ridiculous as the absurd optimism that followed 2022. Regency bias is an amazing thing.
You have to be kidding me. You see, it’s this kind of absurd comment that undermines any attempt you make at a rational argument. The notoriously streaky Josh Bell completely fails in CLE and it’s the team’s fault? A veteran hitter like that is so “constrained” in Cleveland, but somehow he reached, what, freedom in Miami and started to clobber the ball.? Good grief, this is lunacy. He failed under the weight of expectations and performing in an option year. Simple as that. It wasn’t a teaching approach that doomed CLE last year, it was a teamwide slump under the glare of expectations and a decimated rotation. These things happen. Teams have bad years. But I fully expect this to reverse and for CLE to give MIN a spirited run. And please, no DET, take a look at their run differential vs CLE last year despite everything that went wrong at Progressive Field.
At what point is it a flaw to you? When 5-6 former Guards find their power elsewhere? Just give me a number.
%re Bell:
We can go ahead and disregard Bell if that helps you out here. I’m talking about approach and the player’s they select to get time to. They pick contact hitting Will Brennan’s of the world. Which is great if Brennan actually made solid MLB contact. He doesn’t.
Nolan Jones—Cle homegrown prospect. Never tapped into power throughout the minor leagues. Colorado tweaks his swing and he hits 20 Hrs in 400 ABS. Never touched that in Cleveland’s system.
BABIP doesn’t include balls that leave the yard. He hit 10 on the road and 10 at home if you were going to point to the Coors field effect.
George Valera is poised to be the next Guards prospect to tap into his raw power elsewhere.
They have a major malfunction with evaluating their own hitting prospects and their approach at the MLB level is confounding. I’m hopeful for Vogt as a manager, but he brought back the hitting coach…
Cleveland is gutless. Stop excusing the squandered opportunities. The pitching staff Cleveland has had since 2016 should have given them DEEPER playoff runs and more playoff appearances. That has not happened thanks to their mishandling of positions players, inability to deal prospects for MLB talent and their lack of desire to win.
What, the pitching wasn’t good enough all these years?
How about Dylan carlson, burelson,and Pedro pages for beiber. Two outfielders who have hit in the past or should hit, young catcher with decent hitting and pretty good defense. They all combined make next to nothing and would free up almost 10 mil from beiber. Then they could keep clase.
Yeah I mean I don’t think Bieber has anymore value than the first 2 in a package. But I’d like to see Cleveland take one of the Cards pitching prospects or nearly busted ones (Liberatore) & turn them around.
That 2023 offense was abysmal, with Ramon Laureano often hitting clean up.
Laureano was only with the team for the last month or two of the season but yeah you’re right
Next topic
Spiders is a weak name from a different baseball organization. If you want to use a name from the past Furniture Makers is waaaaaaaaaaaaaaay better.
Guardians expected to finish 3rd in dog crap division
Pathetic. Sell the team, Dolan.
The front office is aware. There will be some new outfield options coming. What will help is more productive at bats from bo naylor, Gimenez and arias. Lauriano is an improvement over straw. Maybe manzardo at dh hits better than Brennan. Add one bat and the cumulative improvements make a difference. Dont blow saves and you are much improved.
If they field the same outfield, they can just mail in the whole season. Kwan is worth keeping around, but having him makes Straw redundant, especially since he can’t hit his way out of a wet paper bag.
I love what this team’s front office accomplishes, but this ownership is just so bad. How long until we are finally rid of the Dolans forever?
Several years from now, David Blitzer will have an option to purchase the controlling stake. But who’s to say how much he’ll be willing to spend at that point? I doubt he pulls a Steve Cohen and starts giving out money hand over fist when free agency opens that year.